Joe Gavazzi Sunday
Knee on the Windpipe Game
Connecticut vs Michigan State 2:15 ET CBS Madison Square Garden
4% Michigan State -5-
This line shows the love that the linemaker and public have for Michigan State. It has virtually ignored the MSG site advantage of the nearby Huskies and has not taken into account U Conn’s 3-0 SU, ATS record in this event including consecutive upsets of Villanova and Iowa State. They have covered those games by 25 total points. In outlasting Iowa State, the Huskies converted 20/22 from the stripe. That is not unusual as U Conn knocks down 76% of their foul shots. Deandre Daniels, the epitome of a stretch 4 contributed 27 points and 10 boards. Add 19 by Napier and 16 by Boatwright for a combined total of 62 points by their offensive starts. Yet history shows that 3-0 SU, ATS NCAA teams following consecutive upsets are a 75% Play Against as dog of 3 or more. Far prefer the interior power of Michigan State from a fundamental perspective. The front line of Dawson (24/10 vs Virginia) and Payne (41 vs Delaware) will dominate the inferior Huskie front line. Appling and Harris are the equals of U Conn’s perimeter players. Must continue to note the consistent improvement of the Spartans! Since their 3 injured starters their 3 injured starters returned, Michigan State has gone 7-1 SU, ATS. With every senior class poached by Izzo having experienced the Final Four, do not expect that to come to an end at the hands of the Huskies today.
Technician’s Dream Game of the Day
Kentucky (-2-) vs Michigan 5:00 ET CBS Indianapolis, IN
4% Michigan +2-
Now that Kentucky is playing its best basketball of the season, just on a 6-0 ATS post-season tear, the linemaker has jumped on board. In this event alone, Kentucky is 3-0 SU, ATS with consecutive underdog wins vs. 35-0 Wichita State and defending champion Louisville. In each of those games, the Wildcats shows their maturation by seizing the game in the closing minutes. This has been done with an all frosh starting lineup led on the interior by Randall (15/12 vs Louisville) along with Johnson and Young. In the back court, the Harrison twins will tower over the shorter Michigan perimeter players. Kentucky will, however, be missing their rim protector, Willie Cauley-Stein out with an injured ankle suffered early in the Louisville victory. Nonetheless, the Wildcats will have a dominate edge inside. Kentucky is +25 on the boards in this event, consistent with a 9.7 rebound margin for the season. That margin of course is far greater than the 0.7 rebound margin of Michigan. That argument, however, has held little water in Michigan’s recent victories against far more dominant front lines in Texas and Tennessee. The Wolves compensate for any deficiency inside with consistent and outstanding 3 point shooting. In the last two games, Michigan is a combined 25-48 from behind the arc. But it was balanced scoring that helped the Wolves to the Tennessee victory as 6 players scored between 9 and 15 points. Most notable is the line value created by the Kentucky surge. As a result, we get a #2 seeded Michigan team as 2 ½ point underdog vs a #8 seeded Kentucky team. These gap dogs are a solid 60% winner in NCAA play for 30+ years and only add to the fact that this is the Technicians Dream Game of the Day. With Stauskas, LeVert, Walton and now Irvin, carving up the Wildcats from the perimeter and HC Feline’s, amoebas defenses confounding Kentucky, this Michigan victory is no upset in the mind of this bureau.
NBA
Toronto Raptors (-4-) at Orlando Magic 6:05 ET
3% Toronto -4-
Must respect the Orlando run at home which includes the 110-105 victory on this court vs Charlotte Friday night. That makes the Magic 10-5 SU, 12-3 ATS at home, far dichotomous to their 1-23 SU, 4-19 ATS road mark. Yet that performance at home is matched by the excellence of the Raptors on the road where they have a 24-12 ATS log. Toronto has been arguably the best team in the East with a record of 34-18 SU, 35-17 ATS since the trade of Rudy Gay. In addition, Toronto has owned Orlando with a recent record of 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS in the series. Play the Super Surging Raptors over the Towel Tossing Magic.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets (-4) 6:00 ET
3% Brooklyn -4
The parapatetic TWolves are still capable of some big nights like the 143-107 victory over the Lakers on Friday. Largely, however, the recent 4-9 ATS record is symbolic of the fact they will miss the Playoffs this season. Not so for Brooklyn who continues to ascend in their quest for a home court advantage in the 1st round of the Playoffs. In 2014, Brooklyn is 28-12 SU, 26-14 ATS. The Nets have recently played their best ball on this court where they are 12-0 SU, and 10-1 ATS of late.
NBA Series Dominator
Chicago Bulls (-4-) at Boston Celtics 7:05 ET
4% Chicago Bulls -4-
Entering Sunday’s action, all winning NBA teams are 213-148 ATS following a loss. That applies to Chicago who lost 91-74 at home to Portland on Friday night. Since making adjustments for the loss of Rose, Chicago has gone 31-16 SU. Following the All Star Break, their success has been keyed by a defense that has allowed just 91 PPG. Look for that excellence to carry over against a Boston who they have dominated in this series with a record of 12-3 ATS (80%). No problem playing these Super Surging Bulls against the Towel Tossing Celtics who enter today on slides of 11-31 SU and 1-8 SU recently. Nor is there a problem fading this home court where the Celtics are 9-16 ATS of late and 8-13 ATS as home dog on the season.