STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 3/30/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 3/30/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Sunday's Notebook
•Since 1987, there have been 11 regional finals without a top-3 seed from that region; underdogs went 8-3 versus spread in those games. Connecticut beat Michigan State 66-62 LY on an Army base in Germany that started the season; Napier had 25 that day, but its lot harder facing an Izzo team in March than November. Huskies will have home crowd edge in regional final; UConn is 14-1 outside AAC, beating shorthanded Iowa State last game. Michigan State won last six games after going 5-7 in last 12 regular season games- they also lost to UConn 70-67 in 2010 Maui Classic.
•Over last 11+ years, underdogs are 30-16 versus spread in this round. 8-seed Kentucky is highest-seeded team to be favored in regional final; 7-seeds Florida (-1.5) in '12, Tulsa (-2.5) in 2000 both lost. Logic says it’s tough for young Kentucky squad to bounce back 41 hours after beating its rival Louisville in stirring comeback (trailed 18-5 early). Michigan is 25-48 on arc last two games; they've won 10 of last 11 games, holding on to beat Tennessee by hoop Friday, after leading by 11 at half. Wildcats lost by 4 to Michigan State, in its only game against a Big Ten team this year.
Hoop Trends - Sunday
•MICHIGAN ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 77.1, OPPONENT 67.9.
•MICHIGAN is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season.
The average score was MICHIGAN 72.9, OPPONENT 68.3.
•CONNECTICUT is 15-4 (+10.6 Units) against the 1rst half line as a neutral court underdog of 3 or less versus the 1rst half line since 1997.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 34.4, OPPONENT 31.7.
•MICHIGAN is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season.
The average score was MICHIGAN 36.4, OPPONENT 34.2.
•JOHN BEILEIN is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in a NCAA tournament games in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was BEILEIN 71.6, OPPONENT 66.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Any team versus the money line (MICHIGAN) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), after 2 straight games making 50% of their 3 point shots or better, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%).
(30-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.2%, +29.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +152.8
The average score in these games was: Team 69.4, Opponent 70.4 (Average point differential = -1)
The situation's record this season is: (9-8, +5.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-11, +24 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (85-81, +19 units).
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NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________
***** Sunday, 3/30/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
________________________________________
Sunday's Notebook
•Since 1987, there have been 11 regional finals without a top-3 seed from that region; underdogs went 8-3 versus spread in those games. Connecticut beat Michigan State 66-62 LY on an Army base in Germany that started the season; Napier had 25 that day, but its lot harder facing an Izzo team in March than November. Huskies will have home crowd edge in regional final; UConn is 14-1 outside AAC, beating shorthanded Iowa State last game. Michigan State won last six games after going 5-7 in last 12 regular season games- they also lost to UConn 70-67 in 2010 Maui Classic.
•Over last 11+ years, underdogs are 30-16 versus spread in this round. 8-seed Kentucky is highest-seeded team to be favored in regional final; 7-seeds Florida (-1.5) in '12, Tulsa (-2.5) in 2000 both lost. Logic says it’s tough for young Kentucky squad to bounce back 41 hours after beating its rival Louisville in stirring comeback (trailed 18-5 early). Michigan is 25-48 on arc last two games; they've won 10 of last 11 games, holding on to beat Tennessee by hoop Friday, after leading by 11 at half. Wildcats lost by 4 to Michigan State, in its only game against a Big Ten team this year.
Hoop Trends - Sunday
•MICHIGAN ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 77.1, OPPONENT 67.9.
•MICHIGAN is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season.
The average score was MICHIGAN 72.9, OPPONENT 68.3.
•CONNECTICUT is 15-4 (+10.6 Units) against the 1rst half line as a neutral court underdog of 3 or less versus the 1rst half line since 1997.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 34.4, OPPONENT 31.7.
•MICHIGAN is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season.
The average score was MICHIGAN 36.4, OPPONENT 34.2.
•JOHN BEILEIN is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in a NCAA tournament games in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was BEILEIN 71.6, OPPONENT 66.0.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Any team versus the money line (MICHIGAN) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against a good shooting team (45-47.5%), after 2 straight games making 50% of their 3 point shots or better, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 80%).
(30-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.2%, +29.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +152.8
The average score in these games was: Team 69.4, Opponent 70.4 (Average point differential = -1)
The situation's record this season is: (9-8, +5.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-11, +24 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (85-81, +19 units).
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Spartan
After an 0-5 Friday, Spartan bounces back with a single dime winner on Wisky and a push on his double dime with Dayton. For Sunday he has:
spartan | CBB Sides Sun, 03/30/14 - 5:05 PM
triple-dime bet 719 Kentucky -2.0 (-110) Hilton vs 720 Michigan
Analysis: The Kentucky Wildcats showed me a ton friday night when they took out the defending champion Louisville Cardinals. They got buried early but showed enormous heart fighting back to unseat the champs. Just a couple of short weeks ago not many with the exception of the Kentucky faithful held out much hope that this club could advance this far. Young, but talented beyond their years. Kentucky will be gunning for their third trip to the final four in four years, just think about that. Michigan is rock solid guys but they shot a lights out 55% from the field friday night against Tennessee and let's face it, they barely pulled that thing out. A lot of people are skeptical of a club starting five freshmen doing what this group is doing. Well, seeing is believing and I watched closely. Talent will prevail in the end. No disrespect to the Wolverines but I say the young Wildcats are the right side for us here guys. I say bet Kentucky here up to 4.5 points frankly. No, it's not a lock. I show my long term records and clearly I don't win all the Triples fellas. But come on, would believe anyone who said they did. What I do is win a helluva lot more than I drop. And no, it's not a lock. My clients and I practice self discipline and money management. That's how we collect more than we pay out over the long haul. Please don't get carried away and bet half your roll on this or any game. Okay, let's cash this baby. Many sincere thanks and best of lu²ck to the good guys, that would be us guys!!
Pick Made: Mar 29 2014 5:32PM PST
spartan | CBB Sides Sun, 03/30/14 - 2:20 PM
dime bet 717 UConn 5.5 (-110) Hilton vs 718 Michigan St.
After an 0-5 Friday, Spartan bounces back with a single dime winner on Wisky and a push on his double dime with Dayton. For Sunday he has:
spartan | CBB Sides Sun, 03/30/14 - 5:05 PM
triple-dime bet 719 Kentucky -2.0 (-110) Hilton vs 720 Michigan
Analysis: The Kentucky Wildcats showed me a ton friday night when they took out the defending champion Louisville Cardinals. They got buried early but showed enormous heart fighting back to unseat the champs. Just a couple of short weeks ago not many with the exception of the Kentucky faithful held out much hope that this club could advance this far. Young, but talented beyond their years. Kentucky will be gunning for their third trip to the final four in four years, just think about that. Michigan is rock solid guys but they shot a lights out 55% from the field friday night against Tennessee and let's face it, they barely pulled that thing out. A lot of people are skeptical of a club starting five freshmen doing what this group is doing. Well, seeing is believing and I watched closely. Talent will prevail in the end. No disrespect to the Wolverines but I say the young Wildcats are the right side for us here guys. I say bet Kentucky here up to 4.5 points frankly. No, it's not a lock. I show my long term records and clearly I don't win all the Triples fellas. But come on, would believe anyone who said they did. What I do is win a helluva lot more than I drop. And no, it's not a lock. My clients and I practice self discipline and money management. That's how we collect more than we pay out over the long haul. Please don't get carried away and bet half your roll on this or any game. Okay, let's cash this baby. Many sincere thanks and best of lu²ck to the good guys, that would be us guys!!
Pick Made: Mar 29 2014 5:32PM PST
spartan | CBB Sides Sun, 03/30/14 - 2:20 PM
dime bet 717 UConn 5.5 (-110) Hilton vs 718 Michigan St.
Scott Rickenbach
Players NBA *10* Sunday on OVER in Boston on 30 March*Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* (Top Play) on OVER in Boston*vs. Chicago @ 7:00 p.m. ETThe Boston Celtics host the Chicago Bulls Sunday. “The Bulldog” breaks down his selection on OVER in Boston with his Three-Factor Analysis: 1. Books are pegging this total far too low, with the market overreacting to the Bulls’ defense and Celtics’ futility. There is great value on the Over with this short total. 2. Boston has leaned toward the Over in recent contests, topping the number in six of its last 10 games, thanks in part to some surprising offensive outbursts. 3. Motivation is lopsided in this contest, with Chicago trying to improve its playoff positioning and Boston beginning to swing into full tank mode, in hope of landing one of the top overall picks in this year’s loaded NBA Draft. These Eastern rivals have topped the total in 10 of their previous 13 meetings in Boston.*Play on OVER in Boston as a 10* Top Selection Sunday.Good luck, Scott.*
Players NBA *10* Sunday on OVER in Boston on 30 March*Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* (Top Play) on OVER in Boston*vs. Chicago @ 7:00 p.m. ETThe Boston Celtics host the Chicago Bulls Sunday. “The Bulldog” breaks down his selection on OVER in Boston with his Three-Factor Analysis: 1. Books are pegging this total far too low, with the market overreacting to the Bulls’ defense and Celtics’ futility. There is great value on the Over with this short total. 2. Boston has leaned toward the Over in recent contests, topping the number in six of its last 10 games, thanks in part to some surprising offensive outbursts. 3. Motivation is lopsided in this contest, with Chicago trying to improve its playoff positioning and Boston beginning to swing into full tank mode, in hope of landing one of the top overall picks in this year’s loaded NBA Draft. These Eastern rivals have topped the total in 10 of their previous 13 meetings in Boston.*Play on OVER in Boston as a 10* Top Selection Sunday.Good luck, Scott.*
NCAA Basketball Picks
Kentucky vs. Michigan
The Wildcats take on Michigan in the Elite 8 tonight and come in with a 6-1-1 ATS record in their last 8 games versus Big Ten opponents. Kentucky is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2). Here are all of today's games.
Kentucky vs. Michigan
The Wildcats take on Michigan in the Elite 8 tonight and come in with a 6-1-1 ATS record in their last 8 games versus Big Ten opponents. Kentucky is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2). Here are all of today's games.
| SUNDAY, MARCH 30 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST |
| Game 717-718: Connecticut vs. Michigan State (6:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 68.539; Michigan State 76.169 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 7 1/2; 136 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 5 1/2; 140 Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-5 1/2); Under |
| Game 719-720: Kentucky vs. Michigan (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 74.663; Michigan 70.139 Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 4 1/2; 147 Vegas Line: Kentucky by 2; 141 Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-2); Over |
not that it matters much, but I'm pretty sure the Huskies are 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA games
3 this year and all 6 in 2011
Lost to ISU in 2012
Today's NHL Picks
Washington at Nashville
The Predators host a Washington team tonight that is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between the two teams. The Capitals are the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has Washington favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100). Here are all of today's picks.
Washington at Nashville
The Predators host a Washington team tonight that is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between the two teams. The Capitals are the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has Washington favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100). Here are all of today's picks.
| SUNDAY, MARCH 30 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST |
| Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at Detroit (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.510; Detroit 10.560 Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-105); Under |
| Game 3-4: Calgary at Ottawa (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.059; Ottawa 11.466 Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-145); Over |
| Game 5-6: Chicago at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.682; Pittsburgh 11.203 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+100); Over |
| Game 7-8: Boston at Philadelphia (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 13.128; Philadelphia 11.896 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-115); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Under |
| Game 9-10: NY Rangers at Edmonton (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.378; Edmonton 9.846 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 2 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-160); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-160); Under |
| Game 11-12: Washington at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.823; Nashville 10.719 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Over |
NCAAB
Sunday, March 30
Since 1987, there have been 11 regional finals without a top-3 seed from that region; underdogs went 8-3 vs spread in those games. UConn beat Michigan State 66-62 LY on an Army base in Germany that started the season; Napier had 25 that day, but its lot harder facing an Izzo team in March than November. Huskies will have home crowd edge in regional final; UConn is 14-1 outside AAC, beating shorthanded Iowa State last game. Michigan State won last six games after going 5-7 in last 12 regular season games- they also lost to UConn 70-67 in 2010 Maui Classic.
Over last 11+ years, underdogs are 30-16 vs spread in this round. 8-seed Kentucky is highest-seeded team to be favored in regional final; 7-seeds Florida (-1.5) in '12, Tulsa (-2.5) in 2000 both lost. Logic says its tough for young Kentucky squad to bounce back 41 hours after beating its rival Louisville in stirring comeback (trailed 18-5 early). Michigan is 25-48 on arc last two games; they've won 10 of last 11 games, holding on to beat Tennessee by hoop Friday, after leading by 11 at half. Wildcats lost by 4 to Michigan State, in its only game against a Big Dozen team this year.
Sunday, March 30
Since 1987, there have been 11 regional finals without a top-3 seed from that region; underdogs went 8-3 vs spread in those games. UConn beat Michigan State 66-62 LY on an Army base in Germany that started the season; Napier had 25 that day, but its lot harder facing an Izzo team in March than November. Huskies will have home crowd edge in regional final; UConn is 14-1 outside AAC, beating shorthanded Iowa State last game. Michigan State won last six games after going 5-7 in last 12 regular season games- they also lost to UConn 70-67 in 2010 Maui Classic.
Over last 11+ years, underdogs are 30-16 vs spread in this round. 8-seed Kentucky is highest-seeded team to be favored in regional final; 7-seeds Florida (-1.5) in '12, Tulsa (-2.5) in 2000 both lost. Logic says its tough for young Kentucky squad to bounce back 41 hours after beating its rival Louisville in stirring comeback (trailed 18-5 early). Michigan is 25-48 on arc last two games; they've won 10 of last 11 games, holding on to beat Tennessee by hoop Friday, after leading by 11 at half. Wildcats lost by 4 to Michigan State, in its only game against a Big Dozen team this year.
NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Elite Eight
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies (+5.5, 139.5)
Spartans’ offensive boards vs. Huskies’ lack of glass cleaners
The Huskies nearly let Iowa State steal their spot in the Elite Eight Friday night. Connecticut allowed Cyclones guards DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim to grab eight offensive boards, producing numerous second chances. Even with ISU missing big man Georges Niang, the Cyclones still totaled 12 offensive rebounds. On the year, the Huskies have up 10.2 offensive boards per game – 297th in the country.
What makes the Spartans especially dangerous on the offensive glass is that their forwards step out on the perimeter, stretching the defense and making it even harder to boxout when these bigs crash the boards. That makes put-back dunks and soaring tip-ins a regular on the MSU highlight reels, thanks to the likes of Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson. The Spartans average just under 10 offensive rebounds per game and are 53rd in the country in total rebounding at 37.1.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines (+2, 139)
Wildcats’ quick closeouts vs. Wolverines' 3-point reliance
The Wildcats exploited a similar mismatch in their win over Louisville in the Sweet 16, dominating the Cardinals' diminutive backcourt with a towering trio of guards in Andrew and Aaron Harrison and James Young, who combined for 38 points and nine rebounds. The height of those three – all 6-foot-6 – kept a hand in the face of UL’s shooters, leading to a poor 4-for-15 shooting performance beyond the arc for the Cardinals. Russ Smith hit only one of his seven 3-point attempts and was just 1 for 12 in two games versus Kentucky this year.
Michigan relies heavily on the 3-pointer, sitting as the best team from distance remaining in the tournament. The Wolverines sunk 11 of 20 from 3-point range in the win over Tennessee in the Sweet 16, getting 45 percent of their total offense from the perimeter. Michigan’s backcourt is bigger than Louisville's, with Nik Stauskas and Glen Robinson III at 6-foot-6, but they’re not used to facing opponents with just as much height - and more - at guard. If the Wolverines don’t hit their outside looks, there’s no way they match UK’s physicality inside.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies (+5.5, 139.5)
Spartans’ offensive boards vs. Huskies’ lack of glass cleaners
The Huskies nearly let Iowa State steal their spot in the Elite Eight Friday night. Connecticut allowed Cyclones guards DeAndre Kane and Melvin Ejim to grab eight offensive boards, producing numerous second chances. Even with ISU missing big man Georges Niang, the Cyclones still totaled 12 offensive rebounds. On the year, the Huskies have up 10.2 offensive boards per game – 297th in the country.
What makes the Spartans especially dangerous on the offensive glass is that their forwards step out on the perimeter, stretching the defense and making it even harder to boxout when these bigs crash the boards. That makes put-back dunks and soaring tip-ins a regular on the MSU highlight reels, thanks to the likes of Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson. The Spartans average just under 10 offensive rebounds per game and are 53rd in the country in total rebounding at 37.1.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines (+2, 139)
Wildcats’ quick closeouts vs. Wolverines' 3-point reliance
The Wildcats exploited a similar mismatch in their win over Louisville in the Sweet 16, dominating the Cardinals' diminutive backcourt with a towering trio of guards in Andrew and Aaron Harrison and James Young, who combined for 38 points and nine rebounds. The height of those three – all 6-foot-6 – kept a hand in the face of UL’s shooters, leading to a poor 4-for-15 shooting performance beyond the arc for the Cardinals. Russ Smith hit only one of his seven 3-point attempts and was just 1 for 12 in two games versus Kentucky this year.
Michigan relies heavily on the 3-pointer, sitting as the best team from distance remaining in the tournament. The Wolverines sunk 11 of 20 from 3-point range in the win over Tennessee in the Sweet 16, getting 45 percent of their total offense from the perimeter. Michigan’s backcourt is bigger than Louisville's, with Nik Stauskas and Glen Robinson III at 6-foot-6, but they’re not used to facing opponents with just as much height - and more - at guard. If the Wolverines don’t hit their outside looks, there’s no way they match UK’s physicality inside.
Today's MLB Picks
LA Dodgers at San Diego
The Dodgers open their series in San Diego tonight and are 7-1 in Hyun-Jin Ryu's last 8 starts when the total is set at 6 1/2 runs or lower. LA is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115). Here are all of today's and Monday's picks.
LA Dodgers at San Diego
The Dodgers open their series in San Diego tonight and are 7-1 in Hyun-Jin Ryu's last 8 starts when the total is set at 6 1/2 runs or lower. LA is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115). Here are all of today's and Monday's picks.
| SUNDAY, MARCH 30 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 997-998: LA Dodgers at San Diego (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.331; San Diego (Cashner) 14.904 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-115); Under |
