Gavazzi Sunday
Sunday, March 23, 2014
NBA
Revenge Game of the Month
Atlanta at Toronto (-6-) 1:05 ET
4%Toronto -6-
On March 18th, Toronto visited Atlanta and came away with a 118-113 OT defeat. Though Toronto regained their momentum with a victory at New Orleans the following night, the Raptors suffered a brutal loss on this court to OKC 119-118 on Friday night. The combination of that home court loss and Tuesday’s revenge motive sets this up as a top play winner. Some may point to the Hawks recent 5-1 SU record. But a closer look at their schedule shows us that those victories came against sub .500 teams Utah, Milwaukee, Denver and Charlotte. Atlanta returned to their previous 1-14 SU form (they are now 5-15 ATS) with a 111-105 home loss vs New Orleans Friday night. Hawks had been a major money burner on the road with a record of 10-18 ATS when not taking double digits. Toronto continues their ascent since the trade of Rudy Gay with a record of 31-17 SU, 33-15 ATS. Look for the bounceback by Toronto today as they are 19-10 ATS following a defeat and 12-7 ATS as the better team on this floor. Raptors get even in what can only be our 10* NBA revenge game of March.
CBKB
NCAA
Mercer vs. Tennessee (-
4:10 ET TNT Raleigh, NC
4% Mercer (+
When faced with a possibility of being eliminated from the Big Dance, Tennessee has responded with a run of 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS, failing to cover only against No. 1 Florida. In the last 7 games, the Vols have allowed an average of only 53 PPG. They have been keyed by the interior duo of Maymon and Stokes, who went for 26/14 in the (86-67) wire-to-wire destruction of UMass on Friday. In that contest, Tennessee outshot UMass 54 to 42% and commanded the boards with a +12 rebound margin. Now, they face a Mercer team, who pulled the biggest upset of the 1st Round with a well-deserved 78-71 outright victory, as 13 point underdog vs. Duke. The win was for real as the Bears finished on a 20-8 surge. Mercer outshot Duke 56 to 35% and had a nifty 16/8 Assist/TO ratio. With PG Hall running the offense to perfection, 5 players scored 11 or more points. In fact, the Bears played so well, that they overcame 15 triples by Duke (normally a lock for an ATS win) and a -9 rebound margin. Under 5th year HC Hoffman, Mercer features 7 seniors who have been aiming for this goal of getting to the Sweet 16 for the last 4 seasons. Winners of the CIT, two years ago, and advancing in NIT action last year (when they lost to Dunk City in the CCT) this is a Mercer team who is hungry for more. Mercer is an explosive offensive team that averages 79/48/39, converts 73% from the stripe, and has a 16.4/11.9 TO/Assist ratio. On defense, they allow just 66/40/30 and have a +5.1 rebound margin to offset the interior edge the Vols have featured against most recent opponents. Believe that Mercer can play with Tennessee based on a team that returns intact from the one who beat the Vols (75-67) in the NIT last season.
Memphis vs. Virginia (-5-) 6:40 ET TNT Raleigh, NC
5% Virginia (-5-)
Among my debacles of Friday night was Memphis converting 2 foul shots with no time remaining on the clock, after one of the refs had signaled the conclusion of the game. That resulted in millions of dollars changing hands as the 71-66 final crossed the pointspread, resulting in a loser for my selection on G. Washington. It may not have been an issue if the Colonials had done a bit better than 14-24 from the foul line. In any event, this is the end of the line for Memphis. The Tigers have lost against good defensive teams in their conference, losing to Cincinnati twice by 16 and 13 points, UConn three times by 10, 19 and 5 points, and vs. SMU by 15 points. That sets a clear precedent when they face one of the superior defensive teams in the country. No surprise that UVA played a flat 1st half in their 79-59 win, no cover, vs. CCC. But Virginia, who allows just 55/39/32 with a +6.3 rebound margin, played a strong 2nd half in allowing only 24 2nd half points. An efficient 16/7 Assist/TO margin led to 53% shooting. This team came together at the start of conference play following an 87-52 loss at Tennessee. Team leader, Joe Harris, met with 5th year HC Bennett following that defeat, cleared the air, and set sail on an ACC season that saw the Cavs go 19-2 SU, 16-5 ATS vs. ACC competition in winning both the regular season and CCT crowns. The emergence of the perimeter tandem of PG Perrantes and Brogdon joined veterans, Harris and Mitchell, and explosive offensive role players, Gill and Anderson, to develop an offense that matched the defense. Memphis will offer little resistance. Familiarity with this Raleigh site is an additional bonus for the Cavs.
Stanford vs. Kansas (-6) 2:15 ET CBS St. Louis, MO
4% Kansas (-6)
The smile on the face of Stanford HC Dawkins was one of relief. With a First Round victory against New Mexico, Dawkins recorded the first NCAA win of his coaching career at Stanford and in the process saved his job. Now, the task becomes much tougher against a Kansas team who clearly underperformed in Game 1. Combined with their defeat in the SF of the CCT, that makes two dismal performances in a row for the Jayhawks. But, the reason for their failure to cover in their (89-69) win vs. E. Kentucky was clear; the Jayhawks outshot the Colonels 60 to 39%, were a whopping +25 in the rebound margin, had 5 double digit scorers, and dished out 17 assists. But, they allowed EKY to knock down 12 triples, a mighty amount, that virtually guarantees coverage for a double digit dog. Today’s challenge is not as great. Stanford shot only 39% against the Lobos, including their best interior player, Powell, going 0-8 from the field. Though Randle is an excellent scorer, he is clearly not a true PG. Following a pair of substandard performances, look for the Jayhawks to bounce back.
Kentucky vs. Wichita St. (-2-) 4:45 ET CBS St. Louis, MO
2% Wichita St. (-2-)
Many years ago, my Oakmont High School hoop team went undefeated in Section play with every victory by double digits. After dispatching a pair of inferior opponents in post-season play, we at last met a team who was superior to us. Locked in a tight game, we were unprepared for the challenge and suffered a narrow defeat. That blip on the radar screen in the history of basketball may well serve as an analogy to this Wichita St. team. The Shockers have only twice been favored by fewer than 10 points since December 1st. Since that time, they have 24 consecutive victories as part of their 35-0 SU season. Most importantly, they have only won 3 of those games by fewer than 10 points. Now, they must face their biggest challenge of the year against the most physical team they have faced since a (70-61) victory vs. Tennessee on December 14th. Kentucky is playing their best basketball of the year on a 4-0 SU ATS run in which they have allowed just 59 PPG. Randle had 19/15 Friday night in the Wildcats’ 56-49 win over Kansas St. Kentucky controlled the boards 38-23 and held K. State to just 36% from the field. But, Randle was only 1 of 2 double digit scorers. Kentucky shot just 38% from the field and had an inverted 8/15 Assist/TO ratio. Wichita is clearly the better fundamental team, but with the pressure of 35 consecutive wins against, by far the toughest foe they have faced in 3 months, they will be fortunate to get this narrow victory. One additional note finds the Shockers playing their 5th consecutive game on this Scott Trade Center floor, where they won the MVC CCT. Also, must not ignore the fact that Kentucky HC Calipari is 39-24 ATS dog and will relish the challenge of this role in facing undefeated Wichita.
Baylor vs. Creighton (-3) 5:40 ET TRU San Antonio, TX
4% Baylor (+3)
The Blue Jays used a fast start by McDermott and a 2nd half surge to hold off LA Lafayette (76-66) for a win, no cover. Creighton outshot the Cajuns 52 to 38% and were their usual efficient selves with an 18/6 TO margin. But, they need to look no further than their 11-21 performance from the stripe to see why they were unable to cover the 13 ½ impost. A case could be made for the fact that the Blue Jays had become a bit overrated. Since standing 13-5 ATS on January 25th, Creighton has gone just 5-9 ATS. Today’s opponent is surging in the opposite direction. After an 88-72 loss at Oklahoma on February 8th, the Bears stood 2-8 SU in Big 12 play. Since that time, however, Baylor has gone 11-2 SU, 9-3 ATS, including their wire-to-wire romp (74-60) over Nebraska. It was keyed by their control of the boards with a +11 rebound margin. Yet, the only thing that made the highlight reel from that game was Nebraska’s HC Miles being tossed for arguing the shot clock malfunction. San Antonio venue is a clear positive for Baylor, who is an underrated team at an underdog price.
N. Carolina vs. Iowa St. (-1-) 3:15 ET CBS San Antonio, TX
3% Iowa St. (-1-)
Injury to Iowa St. star, Niang, could be the FCB (Final Crushing Blow) for this Cyclone team. That doesn’t mean, however, that they cannot rally for one emotional win without one of their key contributors. Friday’s opponent, NC Central, was being touted as a real sleeper, with a fantastic defense. The Cyclones blew them away (93-75), outshooting them 64 to 46%, with a 21/9 Assist/TO ratio. The Clones controlled the boards with a +12 rebound margin, knocked down 9 triples, and had 5 players score 15 or more points. It resulted in our Top Play Friday night winner. Far more impressed than with a N. Carolina team, who was life and death before escaping Providence (79-77) in the win, no cover. The 9-0 SU ATS February run by the Heels has left them a bit overrated, as indicated by their 0-6 ATS log since the end of that streak. Look for an emotional performance by Iowa St. in response to losing one of their star players.
Gonzaga vs. Arizona (-6-) 7:40 ET TBS San Diego, CA
3% Gonzaga (+6-)
We might normally look to fade a worse-seeded underdog following an underdog victory in Round 1. But, only the linemaker considered Oklahoma St. to be the superior team in that matchup. This bureau profited with a Top Play Winner on the Zags. In that 85-77 victory, the Zags outshot the Cowboys 52 to 40%. In a game marred by poor officiating (there were 78 FTs attempted), Gonzaga held sway with 4 players scoring 12 or more points. Interior force Karnowski had a 15/10 night, while Pangos led all scorers with 26. Arizona was equally impressive in their 68-59 win, no cover, vs. Weber St. Arizona outshot Weber 55 to 30%. Five players scored 9 or more points. But in a microcosm of the Achilles Heel, that will eventually doom these Wildcats; they went just 9-16 ATS from the stripe. That is symbolic of their 65% foul shooting for the year. Though their outstanding defense, which allows 58/38/31, may win the day for them, it is the underrated Zags who may get the money with their own defense that allows just 65/39/32. Must not ignore the fact that 15th year Gonzaga HC Few is 43-30 ATS in the underdog role.
Stephen F. Austin vs. UCLA (-
5:10 ET TBS San Diego, CA
2% Stephen F. Austin (+
In the Winning Sports Advice App (a FREE download in the ITunes store) Blog Talk Radio Show, I was asked to isolate a pair of non-lined teams who might appear in the Round of 32. It appears I have correctly answered with the schools named Mercer and Stephen F. Austin. The Jacks underwent a coaching change from former mentor, Kaspar (now Texas St.) to Brad Underwood, the former S. Carolina Asst. But SFA never skipped a beat. With 29 consecutive victories, they enter today at 32-2 SU, after surviving havoc. What a survival it was! Trailing by 4 with the clock running out, the Jacks got fouled on a made 3 point attempt, cashed the charity toss for a 4 point play to tie the game, and eventually win in OT. These numbers don’t lie. SFA allows just 63 PPG, is +4.7 rebound margin, has a 16.6/11.2 Assist/TO ratio, and forces 16.4 TOs per game. On Friday night, I paid the price for fading UCLA HC Alford, who ran his pointspread mark to 136-90 ATS, including 22-12 ATS TY, and 4-0 SU ATS of late. What was I thinking? We may pay the price again as the Bruins were outstanding in their 76-59 victory over Tulsa, in which they had their usual 17/10 Assist/TO margin and placed 4 scorers in double digits. But, you will be fading the Lumberjacks at your own peril. In that 77-75 survival against havoc, SFA shot 53% with primetime performersWalkup posting a 12/10 night, Haymon a 17/7 night, and Parker leading all scorers with 22 points.