STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/9/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 2/9/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Teams
-- Oklahoma City won 12 of its last 14 games.
-- Lakers won last two games by 11-14 points, after losing seven games in row before that.
-- Boston won/covered its last three games. Mavericks won last four games, covered last three.
-- Pelicans won six of their last eight games.
-- Grizzlies won seven of their last nine games.
-- Orlando won its last four home games, covered its last six. Pacers won last four games, three by 5 or less points.
•Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost three of their last four games.
-- Bulls lost three of their last four games.
-- Nets lost four of their last six games.
-- Cavaliers won/covered once in their last seven games.
-- Washington lost last two games by 7ot/2 points. Kings lost eight of last ten games, but covered four of last five.
-- 76ers lost eight of their last nine games (2-7 vs. spread). Clippers lost three of their last five games.
•Totals
-- Five of last seven Thunder games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Chicago games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total; five of last seven Boston games stayed under.
-- Last eight New Orleans-Brooklyn games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Orlando home games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Sacramento games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Clipper games went over the total.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Memphis is 5-0 versus spread if it played on road the previous night.
•Series Records
-- Thunder won seven of last nine games versus New York.
-- Lakers lost four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Mavericks won five of last six games with Boston.
-- Nets won three of last four games with New Orleans.
-- Memphis won its last four games with the Cavaliers.
-- Pacers won seven of their last eight games versus Orlando.
-- Kings won three in row versus Washington, last two by 1-2 points.
-- Clippers won/covered last four games with Philadelphia.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- SACRAMENTO is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 106.1, OPPONENT 102.8.
-- BROOKLYN is 18-4 OVER (+13.6 Units) in home games after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996.
The average score was BROOKLYN 98.8, OPPONENT 103.4.
-- NEW YORK is 25-8 (+16.2 Units) against the 1rst half line revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 50.4, OPPONENT 47.7.
-- LA CLIPPERS are 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 56.1, OPPONENT 53.0.
-- SCOTT BROOKS is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in home games after a close loss by 3 points or less as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.
The average score was BROOKS 104.6, OPPONENT 93.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- DALLAS is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 107.5, OPPONENT 95.5.
-- LA CLIPPERS are 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) in home games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 111.5, OPPONENT 100.3.
-- DALLAS is 32-16 (+14.4 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 52.5, OPPONENT 49.7.
-- PHILADELPHIA is 23-7 OVER (+15.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 53.6, OPPONENT 57.4.
-- MIKE BROWN is 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was BROWN 45.7, OPPONENT 45.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (LA LAKERS) - an good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games.
(38-11 since 1996.) (77.6%, +27.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +101.7
The average score in these games was: Team 102.6, Opponent 97.8 (Average point differential = +4.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1, +3.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4, +7.8 units).
-- Play Against - Home teams (WASHINGTON) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.
(40-12 since 1996.) (76.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (24-29)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.8, Opponent 107 (Average point differential = -2.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (46% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7).
-- Play Over - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW YORK) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points.
(44-14 since 1996.) (75.9%, +28.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 210.6
The average score in these games was: Team 106.8, Opponent 112.5 (Total points scored = 219.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 33 (56.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-8).
-- Play On - Road teams versus the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=79%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(55-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.4%, +36.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.7, Opponent 50.9 (Average first half point differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (118-97).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (WASHINGTON) - good rebounding team - giving up <=11 offensive rebounds/game on the season, in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(36-11 since 1996.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.5, Opponent 49 (Total first half points scored = 99.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#801 NEW YORK @ #802 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Thunder -9, Total: 200.5) - The top two scorers in the NBA will finally meet when Oklahoma City and Kevin Durant host New York and Carmelo Anthony in a nationally televised matinee on Sunday. Anthony was absent due to a sprained ankle when the Thunder crushed the Knicks 123-94 at Madison Square Garden on Christmas Day, a result that still stands as the second-best offensive output for Durant's crew. Oklahoma City, which has won eight straight at home, is coming off a rather stunning 103-102 loss at Orlando on Friday in which it blew a 14-point halftime lead and gave up a last-second dunk.
Durant scored 29 points in the loss, which saw the Thunder's scoring production fall significantly in each quarter. Meanwhile, Anthony was busy producing 31 points in a 117-90 home win over Denver, helping the Knicks improve to 11-9 since their 9-21 start. New York tuned up for the visit to Oklahoma City with a 56.5 percent mark from the floor and built a big lead to allow Anthony and other regulars to rest down the stretch.
•ABOUT THE KNICKS (20-30 SU, 21-29-0 ATS): The rout of the Nuggets came amid a storm of speculation surrounding the job status of head coach Mike Woodson, who continued to express confidence in his team despite reports that he will be let go during the upcoming All-Star break. Friday's effort can only help Woodson's cause, as New York showed a balanced attack behind Anthony. Amar'e Stoudemire scored 17 points, J.R. Smith had 13 and three others in addition to Anthony reached double figures, including reserve forward Jeremy Tyler, who also hauled in a career high-tying 11 boards.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (40-12 SU, 30-22-0 ATS): Oklahoma City received a triple-double from Russell Westbrook in the rout at New York on Christmas, but Westbrook remains sidelined until after the All-Star break with a knee injury. In addition to Durant, Serge Ibaka has continued to pick up more of the scoring load with Westbrook out, collecting 26 more points on 10-of-13 shooting in the loss at Orlando. Ibaka, who had 24 points versus the Knicks in December, is an eye-popping 45-for-66 from the floor in his last five games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Knicks C Tyson Chandler is 18-for-22 from the floor and 4-for-12 from the line over a five-game stretch.... The Thunder entered Saturday ranked fifth in the NBA with 19.5 made free throws per game, while the Knicks were last at 14.8.... Anthony's 36 points and 12 rebounds lifted New York to a 125-120 win in its previous visit to Oklahoma City last April.... The Knicks are 13-3 against the spread in road games versus good shooting teams - making more than 46% of their shots over the last two seasons.... Oklahoma City is 11-2 versus the spread versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting less than 21 free throws/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the spread 508 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 700 times, while NEW YORK won 277 times. In 1000 simulated games, 509 games went under the total, while 491 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the first half line 499 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 460 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 491 games went under first half total, while 464 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW YORK is 18-14 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-14 straight up against NEW YORK since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--NEW YORK is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--17 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Knicks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
--Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
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#803 CHICAGO @ #804 LA LAKERS
(TV: 3:30 PM EST, ABC - Line: Bulls -1.5, Total: 196) - The Los Angeles Lakers are never quite sure how many players will be available on a given night but are finding ways to win with a shortened roster. The Lakers will look for a third straight triumph when they host the Chicago Bulls on Sunday. Los Angeles finished off a win in Cleveland with four eligible players on Wednesday and knocked off Philadelphia on Friday with Nick Young, Pau Gasol, Jordan Farmar and Jodie Meeks joining Kobe Bryant on the sidelines.
The Bulls are no strangers to injury and were without Carlos Boozer in a 102-87 loss at Golden State on Thursday. Taj Gibson had a big game with a career high-tying 26 points and 13 rebounds in place of Boozer (calf), who remains day-to-day as Chicago attempts to close out a six-game road trip with an even record. The Bulls got off to a strong start with a win at San Antonio on Jan. 29 but have dropped three of four and are averaging 78.7 points in the three losses.
•ABOUT THE BULLS (24-25 SU, 22-27-0 ATS): Chicago does its best work on the defensive end and sits last in the NBA in scoring average at 92.1 points. Part of the problem is the absence of Derrick Rose (knee), who took part in some light pregame shooting on Thursday but is still conservatively considered out for the season. The Bulls had no answer for Golden State's Stephen Curry, who went for 34 points on 13-of-19 shooting on Thursday, as Mike Dunleavy struggled from the field and Jimmy Butler never got going to help make up the difference on the outside. Dunleavy is averaging 8.6 points on just 27 percent shooting during the road trip, including 3-of-19 from beyond the arc.
•ABOUT THE LAKERS (18-32 SU, 22-27-1 ATS): Los Angeles is shuffling its roster around as it gets a trio of point guards slowly back into the lineup while a group of wing players take their place on the sidelines. Steve Nash and Farmar are both coming off long layoffs and are being given ample time to rest, though Nash put up 19 points on his 40th birthday in a 112-98 win over the 76ers on Friday. “At this point I don’t take anything for granted,“ Nash told reporters. “It’s a mental and emotional ride for me to get ready to play every day, and hope my body obliges.” Steve Blake is coming off his own long layoff but played in all three games of the road trip and put up a triple-double at Cleveland before going 4-of-5 from beyond the arc on Friday.
•PREGAME NOTES: Lakers F Xavier Henry (knee) has been out since Dec. 29 but could rejoin the lineup on Sunday.... The Bulls have taken four of the last five in the series, including a 102-100 overtime triumph at home on Jan. 20.... Chicago C Joakim Noah has recorded double-digit rebounds in 20 of his last 21 games and posted a season-high 21 boards against Los Angeles on Jan. 20.... The Lakers are 21-38 against the spread versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... The Bulls are 9-22 versus the spread when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO covered the spread 517 times, while LA LAKERS covered the spread 483 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO won the game straight up 545 times, while LA LAKERS won 425 times. In 1000 simulated games, 634 games went under the total, while 340 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO covered the first half line 479 times, while LA LAKERS covered the first half line 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 611 games went under first half total, while 364 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LA LAKERS is 16-16 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 20-12 straight up against CHICAGO since 1996.
--20 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 20-11 versus the first half line when playing against LA LAKERS since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bulls are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Over is 8-1 in Lakers last 9 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 8-1 in Lakers last 9 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#805 NEW ORLEANS @ #806 BROOKLYN
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, FSN New Orleans, YES (Brooklyn) - Line: Nets -6, Total: 194) - What a difference a day makes - at least to the Brooklyn Nets. They'll look to take advantage of their one-day break following a dreadful loss to Detroit as they entertain Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday night. Brooklyn fell behind by as many as 29 points en route to a 111-95 defeat versus the Pistons while the Pelicans come in on a high following back-to-back victories over the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Nets' aging roster has made things difficult for first-year head coach Jason Kidd, who yanked his starters after falling behind 84-55 just past the midway point of the third quarter Friday. The defeat dropped Brooklyn to 2-9 in the tail end of back-to-backs, while the Nets are a far more respectable 14-10 when playing on one day's rest. They'll need the energy to stop Pelicans forward Anthony Davis, who averages better than 20 points and 10 rebounds.
•ABOUT THE PELICANS (22-27 SU, 23-24-2 ATS): Davis, who was named to the Western Conference All-Star team this week as an injury replacement for the Lakers' Kobe Bryant, has earned every bit of his success this season. The 20-year-old has been a buzzsaw so far this month, averaging 23.5 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks while shooting 53.8 percent from the field in four February games. Veteran guard Eric Gordon has also been solid of late, averaging 19 points over his last three games while knocking down six 3-pointers.
•ABOUT THE NETS (22-26 SU, 23-25-0 ATS): Brooklyn has little hope of catching the Toronto Raptors atop the winnable Atlantic Division unless it figures out how to succeed in the nine back-to-back situations it has left. While eight of those back-end games will be played away from the Barclays Center, only one - against the Raptors on March 10 - comes against a team with a current record above .500. Brooklyn could use the help in those situations, with its only victories coming against a Memphis team without Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and an Orlando team sitting second-last in the East.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Nets have taken four of the last six in the series.... Davis averaged just 12.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in two games against Brooklyn in his rookie season.... The Pelicans are 12-12 in games played on one day's rest. The Nets are 26-41 against the spread in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game over the last three seasons.... New Orleans is 17-32 versus the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 562 times, while BROOKLYN covered the spread 417 times. *EDGE against the spread =NEW ORLEANS. In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN won the game straight up 577 times, while NEW ORLEANS won 401 times. In 1000 simulated games, 573 games went over the total, while 406 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 525 times, while BROOKLYN covered the first half line 438 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 528 games went over first half total, while 433 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BROOKLYN is 25-24 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--NEW ORLEANS is 28-23 straight up against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--30 of 51 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--BROOKLYN is 27-23 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--24 of 48 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Pelicans are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Pelicans are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Brooklyn.
--Over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Brooklyn.
--Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 14-3 in Pelicans last 17 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 7-0 in Nets last 7 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 3-0-1 in Nets last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#807 MEMPHIS @ #808 CLEVELAND
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, SportsSouth (Memphis), FSN Ohio (Cleveland) - Line: Memphis -3.5, Total: 186) - Visiting the free-throw line wasn’t part of Memphis’ winning formula on Saturday and the Grizzlies may need directions to the line when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday. Memphis shot one free throw in the victory over Atlanta, setting a mark for fewest free throws in an NBA game in the shot-clock era in the 79-76 victory. “Wow! Wow! Wow!” Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph said after viewing the postgame box score. “That whole game – wow!”
There hasn’t been much to wow about in Cleveland as the Cavaliers lost six in a row before ending the skid by beating the Washington Wizards on Friday. Cleveland fired general manager Chris Grant on Thursday due to the team’s poor performance and the victory over the Wizards leaves Cleveland 16 games under .500. Memphis has won 12 of its past 15 games and will be without point guard Mike Conley (ankle) for the fifth straight game while the Cavaliers hope to have forward Luol Deng back from an illness.
•ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (27-22 SU, 23-25-1 ATS): Guard Courtney Lee was the only Memphis player to attempt a free throw and the one he took and made came after a defensive three-second call. The Grizzlies were even stronger on defense than usual by holding Atlanta to 25 total points over the second and third quarters and forcing 21 turnovers, leading to 22 points. Memphis has held the opponent under 100 points in 12 of its last 13 contests, including four games in which it limited the opposing team to 81 or fewer points.
•ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (17-33 SU, 20-30-0 ATS): Cleveland received 58 bench points in the win over Washington with guard Dion Waiters performing well with 24 points. Waiters was one of the players who felt the firing of Grant sent a message through the roster. “The energy was different,” Waiters said afterward. “You guys knew what was at stake after going through a situation like what we went through. So we knew we had to come out there and play hard, and face adversity.” Waiters had just six total points on 3-of-15 shooting in the previous two games before hitting 11-of-18 shots against the Wizards.
•PREGAME NOTES: Memphis lost seven straight games in Cleveland before beating the Cavaliers there last March.... Cleveland has topped 50 bench points in back-to-back games and 10 times overall this season.... Grizzlies SG Tony Allen (wrist) will miss his 18th consecutive game.... Cleveland is 9-22 versus the spread in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... Memphis is 17-5 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CLEVELAND covered the spread 542 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 540 times, while CLEVELAND won 437 times. In 1000 simulated games, 747 games went over the total, while 231 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, CLEVELAND covered the first half line 536 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 422 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 695 games went over first half total, while 305 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
---CLEVELAND is 17-14 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1996.
--CLEVELAND is 19-12 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--22 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CLEVELAND is 20-9 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--18 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Grizzlies are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
--Over is 18-7 in the last 25 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS L8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Under is 7-0 in Grizzlies last 7 road games.
--Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 games following a S.U. win.
--Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games following a S.U. win.
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#809 DALLAS @ #810 BOSTON
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, NBATV, FSN Southwest (Dallas), CSN New England (Boston) - Line: Mavericks -4.5, Total: 199.5) - Two teams looking to extend winning streaks to season-high lengths collide Sunday when the Dallas Mavericks visit the Boston Celtics. Dallas has won four straight and its last three by an average of nearly 18 points, establishing some distance in the Western Conference's eighth and final playoff spot over ninth-place Memphis. "At this point, we're shoring it up," coach Rick Carlisle told the Dallas Morning News. "We're doing better but we can't start feeling too good."
Boston hasn't exactly played the upper echelon of the league of late but wins over Orlando, Philadelphia and Sacramento have the Celtics on the verge of a season best four-game surge. Forward Jared Sullinger notched a career-high 31 points to go with 16 rebounds to lead Boston over the Kings last time out and coach Brad Stevens told the Boston Herald that this is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of what Sullinger, who has 11 double-doubles in his last 20 games, can do. "As he continues to improve," Stevens said, "I just think that the sky's the limit. I really believe that he can be a consistent double-double guy."
•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (30-21 SU, 29-22-0 ATS): Dallas has placed a concerted emphasis on rebounding of late and the approach has yielded impressive results. The Mavericks have controlled the boards in three straight games and are plus-31 in rebounding in their last seven, leaving guard Vince Carter feeling as though the team is starting to put it all together for the first time this season. "We're clicking on all cylinders on both sides of the floor," Carter said."We have slippage sometimes but everybody's doing what needs to be done for the good of the team."
•ABOUT THE CELTICS (18-33 SU, 25-25-1 ATS): Point guard Rajon Rondo has played in eight games since returning from offseason knee surgery but rested in the win over Sacramento after a vintage performance against Philadelphia on Wednesday left him battling soreness. Rondo, who totaled eight points, 11 assists and nine rebounds as Boston knocked off the 76ers, is expected to play against Dallas, according to Stevens, who told reporters, "He's played nine games in 20 days and he hasn't done that in a year. It's a culmination of things - nothing structural." Jeff Green, who leads the Celtics with an average of 16.3 points, has notched a pair of 30-point games in an eight-game span in which the forward is averaging 19.5 points.
•PREGAME NOTES: Mavericks G Monta Ellis, who ranks second on the team in scoring (19.5), is day-to-day after straining his right hamstring in Friday's win over Utah.... Sullinger's effort against the Kings made him only the second Celtic to score 30 points or more this season, joining Green, who has accomplished the feat three times.... Dallas' scoring average of 104.6 points places it among the NBA's top 10, while Boston is in the league's bottom five, averaging 95.1.... The Celtics are 14-5 Under versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the spread 514 times, while BOSTON covered the spread 486 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS won the game straight up 618 times, while BOSTON won 364 times. In 1000 simulated games, 536 games went over the total, while 464 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the first half line 502 times, while BOSTON covered the first half line 498 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 516 games went under first half total, while 484 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DALLAS is 18-13 against the spread versus BOSTON since 1996.
--DALLAS is 22-10 straight up against BOSTON since 1996.
--18 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DALLAS is 15-14 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON since 1996.
--18 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Boston.
--Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Over is 6-1 in Mavericks last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 home games.
--Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 Sunday games.
--Under is 4-0 in Celtics L4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#811 SACRAMENTO @ #812 WASHINGTON
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, CSN California (Sacramento), CSN Mid-Atlantic (Washington) - Line: Wizards -5, Total: 203) - The Washington Wizards briefly pulled above .500 but had their defense abandon them in back-to-back losses to fall a game under the even point. The Wizards will attempt to get back to .500 when they close out a five-game homestand by hosting the Sacramento Kings on Sunday. The Kings went into an offensive funk in the fourth quarter of a 99-89 loss at Boston to kick off a four-game road trip on Friday.
The loss to the Celtics marked the fifth straight road setback for Sacramento, which had picked up some momentum with back-to-back wins before heading out on the road. DeMarcus Cousins collected 31 points and 16 rebounds on Friday and is showing no ill effects from an ankle injury that kept him out six games by posting averages of 27 points and 14 boards in the last three contests. Cousins could be in for another big night against Washington, which was beaten on the boards 45-34 by the Cavaliers.
•ABOUT THE KINGS (17-33 SU, 23-25-2 ATS): Cousins was passed over for a reserve spot on the All-Star roster twice - first by the Western Conference coaches and then by commissioner Adam Silver - and may have had the snub on his mind in Boston. “Tough loss,” Cousins told the Sacramento Bee. “I don’t think I came in focused, either. There were some outside things distracting me.” Silver named New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis to the West squad as an injury replacement, passing over Cousins and his 22.9 points and 11.7 rebounds. It also did not help that Rudy Gay (illness) missed Friday’s contest and did not practice on Saturday.
•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (24-25 SU, 26-23-0 ATS): Washington got an All-Star bid for point guard John Wall, Cousins’ former college teammate, and Wall did his best to help avoid the two losses with 30.5 points and 9.5 rebounds. The Wizards jumped above .500 with wins over two of the best teams in the NBA in Oklahoma City and Portland but came up just short in an overtime loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday before letting up against lowly Cleveland. “It’s easy to get up against the good teams,” forward Martell Webster told the Washington Post. “Where we fold is these teams below .500 come in and we play down to the level.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Sacramento has taken three straight in the series, including each of its last two trips to Washington.... Kings G Marcus Thornton (hip) sat out Friday’s game and is questionable for Sunday.... Webster is 8-of-14 from 3-point range over the last two games.... The Wizards are 8-21 versus the spread in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last three seasons.... The Kings are 15-2 against the spread after having lost 8 or more of their last ten games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the spread 509 times, while WASHINGTON covered the spread 465 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON won the game straight up 577 times, while SACRAMENTO won 399 times. In 1000 simulated games, 581 games went over the total, while 390 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the first half line 511 times, while WASHINGTON covered the first half line 489 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 510 games went over first half total, while 490 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 16-16 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--SACRAMENTO is 17-15 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--18 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SACRAMENTO is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--19 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
--Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Washington.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Kings are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 3-0-2 in Kings last 5 road games.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Kings last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
--Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Wizards are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#813 INDIANA @ #814 ORLANDO
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, FSN Indiana, FSN Florida (Orlando) - Line: Pacers -8, Total: 188.5) - The Orlando Magic look to follow up an inspiring victory over the Western Conference leaders by beating the top team in the East when they host the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. Tobias Harris’ dunk at the buzzer gave Orlando a 103-102 triumph over Oklahoma City on Friday to extend its home winning streak to four and take back-to-back games for the first time since late December. The Pacers have won four in a row, including a 98-79 victory over the Magic on Monday.
Indiana earned their fourth straight Friday with a 118-113 overtime win against Portland as George Hill poured in a career-high 37 points. The Pacers’ second-leading scorer, Lance Stephenson, missed that game with a sore back and is questionable for an Orlando team which has won three of five overall. The Magic’s improving offense, which boasts six players averaging at least 12.7, must find a way to unlock an Indiana defense which leads the league in points allowed (90.7).
•ABOUT THE PACERS (39-10 SU, 31-18-0 ATS): Hill averaged 5.7 points and made 6-of-20 from the field in the previous three games before his career night against Portland that included nine rebounds and eight assists. More offense from Hill takes pressure off leading scorer Paul George (22.6) and opens up the floor for David West (13.5) and Roy Hibbert (12), who leads the team in rebounding (7.7). The Pacers had a 52-38 edge on the boards against Orlando last week and stand second in the league with a plus-4.8 rebounding margin.
•ABOUT THE MAGIC (15-37 SU, 22-30-0 ATS): Rookie Victor Oladipo rebounded from a 2-of-11 shooting night against Indiana to average 17 points and make 13 of his 17 shots from the field to help the Magic win two straight for the first time since Dec. 27 and 29. Arron Afflalo leads the team in scoring (19.8) while Oladipo (13.8) and Harris (13.7) are next among a balanced group. Center Nikola Vucevic notched his 20th double-double of the season against Oklahoma City and averages 13.1 points to go with a team-best 10.7 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Pacers have held 21 opponents under 40 percent shooting and 11 to fewer than 80 points.... Orlando PG Jameer Nelson did not play last week against Indiana due to a sore knee and has 16 assists in two games since.... Indiana has won eight of the last nine meetings with Orlando, including two home wins this season.... Orlando is 9-20 against the spread versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game this season.... The Pacers are 12-3 versus the spread when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the spread 517 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 459 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 655 times, while ORLANDO won 314 times. In 1000 simulated games, 509 games went over the total, while 491 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the first half line 535 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 465 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 484 games went over first half total, while 478 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 34-30 against the spread versus ORLANDO since 1996.
--INDIANA is 35-33 straight up against ORLANDO since 1996.
--37 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--INDIANA is 34-30 versus the first half line when playing against ORLANDO since 1996.
--34 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 8-1 in Pacers last 9 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Over is 4-0 in Magic last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
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#815 PHILADELPHIA @ #816 LA CLIPPERS
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, CSN Philadelphia, Prime Ticket (Los Angeles) - Line: Clippers -16, Total: 219.5) - Chris Paul expects to return on Sunday and it appears only a setback close to tip-off will prevent him from being out the court when the Los Angeles Clippers host the Philadelphia 76ers. Paul has missed 18 games with a shoulder injury and is pushing his return as he wants to play in next weekend’s All-Star Game. Philadelphia has a strong point guard in rookie Michael Carter-Williams but enters with a five-game skid.
The Clippers are 12-6 since Paul got injured and coach Doc Rivers expects it to take a couple weeks for Paul to regain his form. Rivers said he was still pondering Saturday whether or not to play Paul but all indications were that it would indeed happen. “I fully know that he wants to play, let’s put it that way,” Rivers told reporters. “I just don’t know if we’re going to allow him to play yet. I just want to see how he feels, how his body feels. I want to see him on the floor. I just want to make sure Chris is not pushing to play. Players do that.”
•ABOUT THE 76ERS (15-36 SU, 20-31-0 ATS): Philadelphia may lack assets but the point guard position is in pretty good shape with Carter-Williams excelling and backup Tony Wroten developing in his second NBA campaign. Carter-Williams is averaging 17 points and 6.6 assists and has been one of the league’s top rookies despite his outside shot – 29.6 percent from 3-point range – being a work in progress. Wroten is averaging 17.5 points over the last four games and his season average of 12.9 is a substantial improvement over his rookie output of 2.6 points for the Memphis Grizzlies.
•ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (35-18 SU, 30-23-0 ATS): Power forward Blake Griffin has scored 36 or more points in each of the past three games and has strung together 11 consecutive games of 20 or more points. Griffin is the first player to post three straight 35-point outings since the Clippers relocated to Los Angeles with Lloyd Free – who starred for the San Diego Clippers – being the last to achieve it in 1979. “Man, that guy is amazing,” guard Willie Green said after Griffin scored 36 in Friday’s victory over Toronto. “He makes his mind up that he’s just going to be dominant and there’s nothing anybody can do.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Los Angeles has won six of the past eight meetings, including a 94-83 victory in Philadelphia on Dec. 9.... Sixers C Spencer Hawes has put together back-to-back double-doubles but had just two points and four rebounds in the December loss to the Clippers.... Clippers G J.J. Redick (back) will likely miss his third straight game.... Philadelphia is 7-17 against the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.... The Clippers are 11-2 versus the spread versus poor 3-point shooting teams - making less than 33% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS covered the spread 571 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the spread 411 times. *EDGE against the spread =LA CLIPPERS. In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS won the game straight up 866 times, while PHILADELPHIA won 128 times. In 1000 simulated games, 775 games went under the total, while 225 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS covered the first half line 486 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the first half line 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 710 games went under first half total, while 290 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHILADELPHIA is 18-13 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 17-15 straight up against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--17 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--76ers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--76ers are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 Sunday games.
--Over is 8-0 in Clippers last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
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NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 2/9/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Teams
-- Oklahoma City won 12 of its last 14 games.
-- Lakers won last two games by 11-14 points, after losing seven games in row before that.
-- Boston won/covered its last three games. Mavericks won last four games, covered last three.
-- Pelicans won six of their last eight games.
-- Grizzlies won seven of their last nine games.
-- Orlando won its last four home games, covered its last six. Pacers won last four games, three by 5 or less points.
•Cold Teams
-- Knicks lost three of their last four games.
-- Bulls lost three of their last four games.
-- Nets lost four of their last six games.
-- Cavaliers won/covered once in their last seven games.
-- Washington lost last two games by 7ot/2 points. Kings lost eight of last ten games, but covered four of last five.
-- 76ers lost eight of their last nine games (2-7 vs. spread). Clippers lost three of their last five games.
•Totals
-- Five of last seven Thunder games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Chicago games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Dallas games went over the total; five of last seven Boston games stayed under.
-- Last eight New Orleans-Brooklyn games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Orlando home games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Sacramento games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Clipper games went over the total.
•Back-To-Backs
-- Memphis is 5-0 versus spread if it played on road the previous night.
•Series Records
-- Thunder won seven of last nine games versus New York.
-- Lakers lost four of last five games with Chicago.
-- Mavericks won five of last six games with Boston.
-- Nets won three of last four games with New Orleans.
-- Memphis won its last four games with the Cavaliers.
-- Pacers won seven of their last eight games versus Orlando.
-- Kings won three in row versus Washington, last two by 1-2 points.
-- Clippers won/covered last four games with Philadelphia.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- SACRAMENTO is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) after having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO 106.1, OPPONENT 102.8.
-- BROOKLYN is 18-4 OVER (+13.6 Units) in home games after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half since 1996.
The average score was BROOKLYN 98.8, OPPONENT 103.4.
-- NEW YORK is 25-8 (+16.2 Units) against the 1rst half line revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 50.4, OPPONENT 47.7.
-- LA CLIPPERS are 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) the 1rst half total when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 56.1, OPPONENT 53.0.
-- SCOTT BROOKS is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in home games after a close loss by 3 points or less as the coach of OKLAHOMA CITY.
The average score was BROOKS 104.6, OPPONENT 93.9.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- DALLAS is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 107.5, OPPONENT 95.5.
-- LA CLIPPERS are 14-1 OVER (+12.9 Units) in home games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 111.5, OPPONENT 100.3.
-- DALLAS is 32-16 (+14.4 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 52.5, OPPONENT 49.7.
-- PHILADELPHIA is 23-7 OVER (+15.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 53.6, OPPONENT 57.4.
-- MIKE BROWN is 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996.
The average score was BROWN 45.7, OPPONENT 45.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (LA LAKERS) - an good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games.
(38-11 since 1996.) (77.6%, +27.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +101.7
The average score in these games was: Team 102.6, Opponent 97.8 (Average point differential = +4.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1, +3.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4, +7.8 units).
-- Play Against - Home teams (WASHINGTON) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.
(40-12 since 1996.) (76.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (24-29)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.8, Opponent 107 (Average point differential = -2.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 23 (46% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-7).
-- Play Over - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW YORK) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points.
(44-14 since 1996.) (75.9%, +28.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 210.6
The average score in these games was: Team 106.8, Opponent 112.5 (Total points scored = 219.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 33 (56.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-8).
-- Play On - Road teams versus the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - excellent free throw shooting team (>=79%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(55-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.4%, +36.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 52.7, Opponent 50.9 (Average first half point differential = +1.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (118-97).
-- Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (WASHINGTON) - good rebounding team - giving up <=11 offensive rebounds/game on the season, in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(36-11 since 1996.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.5, Opponent 49 (Total first half points scored = 99.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-4).
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Sunday's Match-ups
#801 NEW YORK @ #802 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Thunder -9, Total: 200.5) - The top two scorers in the NBA will finally meet when Oklahoma City and Kevin Durant host New York and Carmelo Anthony in a nationally televised matinee on Sunday. Anthony was absent due to a sprained ankle when the Thunder crushed the Knicks 123-94 at Madison Square Garden on Christmas Day, a result that still stands as the second-best offensive output for Durant's crew. Oklahoma City, which has won eight straight at home, is coming off a rather stunning 103-102 loss at Orlando on Friday in which it blew a 14-point halftime lead and gave up a last-second dunk.
Durant scored 29 points in the loss, which saw the Thunder's scoring production fall significantly in each quarter. Meanwhile, Anthony was busy producing 31 points in a 117-90 home win over Denver, helping the Knicks improve to 11-9 since their 9-21 start. New York tuned up for the visit to Oklahoma City with a 56.5 percent mark from the floor and built a big lead to allow Anthony and other regulars to rest down the stretch.
•ABOUT THE KNICKS (20-30 SU, 21-29-0 ATS): The rout of the Nuggets came amid a storm of speculation surrounding the job status of head coach Mike Woodson, who continued to express confidence in his team despite reports that he will be let go during the upcoming All-Star break. Friday's effort can only help Woodson's cause, as New York showed a balanced attack behind Anthony. Amar'e Stoudemire scored 17 points, J.R. Smith had 13 and three others in addition to Anthony reached double figures, including reserve forward Jeremy Tyler, who also hauled in a career high-tying 11 boards.
•ABOUT THE THUNDER (40-12 SU, 30-22-0 ATS): Oklahoma City received a triple-double from Russell Westbrook in the rout at New York on Christmas, but Westbrook remains sidelined until after the All-Star break with a knee injury. In addition to Durant, Serge Ibaka has continued to pick up more of the scoring load with Westbrook out, collecting 26 more points on 10-of-13 shooting in the loss at Orlando. Ibaka, who had 24 points versus the Knicks in December, is an eye-popping 45-for-66 from the floor in his last five games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Knicks C Tyson Chandler is 18-for-22 from the floor and 4-for-12 from the line over a five-game stretch.... The Thunder entered Saturday ranked fifth in the NBA with 19.5 made free throws per game, while the Knicks were last at 14.8.... Anthony's 36 points and 12 rebounds lifted New York to a 125-120 win in its previous visit to Oklahoma City last April.... The Knicks are 13-3 against the spread in road games versus good shooting teams - making more than 46% of their shots over the last two seasons.... Oklahoma City is 11-2 versus the spread versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting less than 21 free throws/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the spread 508 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 468 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 700 times, while NEW YORK won 277 times. In 1000 simulated games, 509 games went under the total, while 491 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW YORK covered the first half line 499 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 460 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 491 games went under first half total, while 464 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--NEW YORK is 18-14 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-14 straight up against NEW YORK since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--NEW YORK is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against OKLAHOMA CITY since 1996.
--17 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Knicks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Oklahoma City.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
--Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Knicks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Under is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more.
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#803 CHICAGO @ #804 LA LAKERS
(TV: 3:30 PM EST, ABC - Line: Bulls -1.5, Total: 196) - The Los Angeles Lakers are never quite sure how many players will be available on a given night but are finding ways to win with a shortened roster. The Lakers will look for a third straight triumph when they host the Chicago Bulls on Sunday. Los Angeles finished off a win in Cleveland with four eligible players on Wednesday and knocked off Philadelphia on Friday with Nick Young, Pau Gasol, Jordan Farmar and Jodie Meeks joining Kobe Bryant on the sidelines.
The Bulls are no strangers to injury and were without Carlos Boozer in a 102-87 loss at Golden State on Thursday. Taj Gibson had a big game with a career high-tying 26 points and 13 rebounds in place of Boozer (calf), who remains day-to-day as Chicago attempts to close out a six-game road trip with an even record. The Bulls got off to a strong start with a win at San Antonio on Jan. 29 but have dropped three of four and are averaging 78.7 points in the three losses.
•ABOUT THE BULLS (24-25 SU, 22-27-0 ATS): Chicago does its best work on the defensive end and sits last in the NBA in scoring average at 92.1 points. Part of the problem is the absence of Derrick Rose (knee), who took part in some light pregame shooting on Thursday but is still conservatively considered out for the season. The Bulls had no answer for Golden State's Stephen Curry, who went for 34 points on 13-of-19 shooting on Thursday, as Mike Dunleavy struggled from the field and Jimmy Butler never got going to help make up the difference on the outside. Dunleavy is averaging 8.6 points on just 27 percent shooting during the road trip, including 3-of-19 from beyond the arc.
•ABOUT THE LAKERS (18-32 SU, 22-27-1 ATS): Los Angeles is shuffling its roster around as it gets a trio of point guards slowly back into the lineup while a group of wing players take their place on the sidelines. Steve Nash and Farmar are both coming off long layoffs and are being given ample time to rest, though Nash put up 19 points on his 40th birthday in a 112-98 win over the 76ers on Friday. “At this point I don’t take anything for granted,“ Nash told reporters. “It’s a mental and emotional ride for me to get ready to play every day, and hope my body obliges.” Steve Blake is coming off his own long layoff but played in all three games of the road trip and put up a triple-double at Cleveland before going 4-of-5 from beyond the arc on Friday.
•PREGAME NOTES: Lakers F Xavier Henry (knee) has been out since Dec. 29 but could rejoin the lineup on Sunday.... The Bulls have taken four of the last five in the series, including a 102-100 overtime triumph at home on Jan. 20.... Chicago C Joakim Noah has recorded double-digit rebounds in 20 of his last 21 games and posted a season-high 21 boards against Los Angeles on Jan. 20.... The Lakers are 21-38 against the spread versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... The Bulls are 9-22 versus the spread when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO covered the spread 517 times, while LA LAKERS covered the spread 483 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO won the game straight up 545 times, while LA LAKERS won 425 times. In 1000 simulated games, 634 games went under the total, while 340 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, CHICAGO covered the first half line 479 times, while LA LAKERS covered the first half line 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 611 games went under first half total, while 364 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LA LAKERS is 16-16 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--LA LAKERS is 20-12 straight up against CHICAGO since 1996.
--20 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 20-11 versus the first half line when playing against LA LAKERS since 1996.
--17 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Bulls are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
--Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games.
--Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more.
--Under is 5-0 in Bulls last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Over is 8-1 in Lakers last 9 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 8-1 in Lakers last 9 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#805 NEW ORLEANS @ #806 BROOKLYN
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, FSN New Orleans, YES (Brooklyn) - Line: Nets -6, Total: 194) - What a difference a day makes - at least to the Brooklyn Nets. They'll look to take advantage of their one-day break following a dreadful loss to Detroit as they entertain Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday night. Brooklyn fell behind by as many as 29 points en route to a 111-95 defeat versus the Pistons while the Pelicans come in on a high following back-to-back victories over the Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Nets' aging roster has made things difficult for first-year head coach Jason Kidd, who yanked his starters after falling behind 84-55 just past the midway point of the third quarter Friday. The defeat dropped Brooklyn to 2-9 in the tail end of back-to-backs, while the Nets are a far more respectable 14-10 when playing on one day's rest. They'll need the energy to stop Pelicans forward Anthony Davis, who averages better than 20 points and 10 rebounds.
•ABOUT THE PELICANS (22-27 SU, 23-24-2 ATS): Davis, who was named to the Western Conference All-Star team this week as an injury replacement for the Lakers' Kobe Bryant, has earned every bit of his success this season. The 20-year-old has been a buzzsaw so far this month, averaging 23.5 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks while shooting 53.8 percent from the field in four February games. Veteran guard Eric Gordon has also been solid of late, averaging 19 points over his last three games while knocking down six 3-pointers.
•ABOUT THE NETS (22-26 SU, 23-25-0 ATS): Brooklyn has little hope of catching the Toronto Raptors atop the winnable Atlantic Division unless it figures out how to succeed in the nine back-to-back situations it has left. While eight of those back-end games will be played away from the Barclays Center, only one - against the Raptors on March 10 - comes against a team with a current record above .500. Brooklyn could use the help in those situations, with its only victories coming against a Memphis team without Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and an Orlando team sitting second-last in the East.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Nets have taken four of the last six in the series.... Davis averaged just 12.5 points and 7.5 rebounds in two games against Brooklyn in his rookie season.... The Pelicans are 12-12 in games played on one day's rest. The Nets are 26-41 against the spread in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game over the last three seasons.... New Orleans is 17-32 versus the spread versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the spread 562 times, while BROOKLYN covered the spread 417 times. *EDGE against the spread =NEW ORLEANS. In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN won the game straight up 577 times, while NEW ORLEANS won 401 times. In 1000 simulated games, 573 games went over the total, while 406 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, NEW ORLEANS covered the first half line 525 times, while BROOKLYN covered the first half line 438 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 528 games went over first half total, while 433 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BROOKLYN is 25-24 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--NEW ORLEANS is 28-23 straight up against BROOKLYN since 1996.
--30 of 51 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--BROOKLYN is 27-23 versus the first half line when playing against NEW ORLEANS since 1996.
--24 of 48 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Pelicans are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Pelicans are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Brooklyn.
--Over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Brooklyn.
--Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 14-3 in Pelicans last 17 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 7-0 in Nets last 7 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 3-0-1 in Nets last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#807 MEMPHIS @ #808 CLEVELAND
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, SportsSouth (Memphis), FSN Ohio (Cleveland) - Line: Memphis -3.5, Total: 186) - Visiting the free-throw line wasn’t part of Memphis’ winning formula on Saturday and the Grizzlies may need directions to the line when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday. Memphis shot one free throw in the victory over Atlanta, setting a mark for fewest free throws in an NBA game in the shot-clock era in the 79-76 victory. “Wow! Wow! Wow!” Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph said after viewing the postgame box score. “That whole game – wow!”
There hasn’t been much to wow about in Cleveland as the Cavaliers lost six in a row before ending the skid by beating the Washington Wizards on Friday. Cleveland fired general manager Chris Grant on Thursday due to the team’s poor performance and the victory over the Wizards leaves Cleveland 16 games under .500. Memphis has won 12 of its past 15 games and will be without point guard Mike Conley (ankle) for the fifth straight game while the Cavaliers hope to have forward Luol Deng back from an illness.
•ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (27-22 SU, 23-25-1 ATS): Guard Courtney Lee was the only Memphis player to attempt a free throw and the one he took and made came after a defensive three-second call. The Grizzlies were even stronger on defense than usual by holding Atlanta to 25 total points over the second and third quarters and forcing 21 turnovers, leading to 22 points. Memphis has held the opponent under 100 points in 12 of its last 13 contests, including four games in which it limited the opposing team to 81 or fewer points.
•ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (17-33 SU, 20-30-0 ATS): Cleveland received 58 bench points in the win over Washington with guard Dion Waiters performing well with 24 points. Waiters was one of the players who felt the firing of Grant sent a message through the roster. “The energy was different,” Waiters said afterward. “You guys knew what was at stake after going through a situation like what we went through. So we knew we had to come out there and play hard, and face adversity.” Waiters had just six total points on 3-of-15 shooting in the previous two games before hitting 11-of-18 shots against the Wizards.
•PREGAME NOTES: Memphis lost seven straight games in Cleveland before beating the Cavaliers there last March.... Cleveland has topped 50 bench points in back-to-back games and 10 times overall this season.... Grizzlies SG Tony Allen (wrist) will miss his 18th consecutive game.... Cleveland is 9-22 versus the spread in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.... Memphis is 17-5 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CLEVELAND covered the spread 542 times, while MEMPHIS covered the spread 458 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 540 times, while CLEVELAND won 437 times. In 1000 simulated games, 747 games went over the total, while 231 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, CLEVELAND covered the first half line 536 times, while MEMPHIS covered the first half line 422 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 695 games went over first half total, while 305 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
---CLEVELAND is 17-14 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1996.
--CLEVELAND is 19-12 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--22 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--CLEVELAND is 20-9 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--18 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Grizzlies are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
--Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
--Over is 18-7 in the last 25 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS L8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Under is 7-0 in Grizzlies last 7 road games.
--Under is 9-1 in Grizzlies last 10 games following a S.U. win.
--Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
--Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games following a S.U. win.
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#809 DALLAS @ #810 BOSTON
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, NBATV, FSN Southwest (Dallas), CSN New England (Boston) - Line: Mavericks -4.5, Total: 199.5) - Two teams looking to extend winning streaks to season-high lengths collide Sunday when the Dallas Mavericks visit the Boston Celtics. Dallas has won four straight and its last three by an average of nearly 18 points, establishing some distance in the Western Conference's eighth and final playoff spot over ninth-place Memphis. "At this point, we're shoring it up," coach Rick Carlisle told the Dallas Morning News. "We're doing better but we can't start feeling too good."
Boston hasn't exactly played the upper echelon of the league of late but wins over Orlando, Philadelphia and Sacramento have the Celtics on the verge of a season best four-game surge. Forward Jared Sullinger notched a career-high 31 points to go with 16 rebounds to lead Boston over the Kings last time out and coach Brad Stevens told the Boston Herald that this is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of what Sullinger, who has 11 double-doubles in his last 20 games, can do. "As he continues to improve," Stevens said, "I just think that the sky's the limit. I really believe that he can be a consistent double-double guy."
•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (30-21 SU, 29-22-0 ATS): Dallas has placed a concerted emphasis on rebounding of late and the approach has yielded impressive results. The Mavericks have controlled the boards in three straight games and are plus-31 in rebounding in their last seven, leaving guard Vince Carter feeling as though the team is starting to put it all together for the first time this season. "We're clicking on all cylinders on both sides of the floor," Carter said."We have slippage sometimes but everybody's doing what needs to be done for the good of the team."
•ABOUT THE CELTICS (18-33 SU, 25-25-1 ATS): Point guard Rajon Rondo has played in eight games since returning from offseason knee surgery but rested in the win over Sacramento after a vintage performance against Philadelphia on Wednesday left him battling soreness. Rondo, who totaled eight points, 11 assists and nine rebounds as Boston knocked off the 76ers, is expected to play against Dallas, according to Stevens, who told reporters, "He's played nine games in 20 days and he hasn't done that in a year. It's a culmination of things - nothing structural." Jeff Green, who leads the Celtics with an average of 16.3 points, has notched a pair of 30-point games in an eight-game span in which the forward is averaging 19.5 points.
•PREGAME NOTES: Mavericks G Monta Ellis, who ranks second on the team in scoring (19.5), is day-to-day after straining his right hamstring in Friday's win over Utah.... Sullinger's effort against the Kings made him only the second Celtic to score 30 points or more this season, joining Green, who has accomplished the feat three times.... Dallas' scoring average of 104.6 points places it among the NBA's top 10, while Boston is in the league's bottom five, averaging 95.1.... The Celtics are 14-5 Under versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the spread 514 times, while BOSTON covered the spread 486 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS won the game straight up 618 times, while BOSTON won 364 times. In 1000 simulated games, 536 games went over the total, while 464 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the first half line 502 times, while BOSTON covered the first half line 498 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 516 games went under first half total, while 484 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DALLAS is 18-13 against the spread versus BOSTON since 1996.
--DALLAS is 22-10 straight up against BOSTON since 1996.
--18 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--DALLAS is 15-14 versus the first half line when playing against BOSTON since 1996.
--18 of 32 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Boston.
--Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Over is 6-1 in Mavericks last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
--Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 home games.
--Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 Sunday games.
--Under is 4-0 in Celtics L4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
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#811 SACRAMENTO @ #812 WASHINGTON
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, CSN California (Sacramento), CSN Mid-Atlantic (Washington) - Line: Wizards -5, Total: 203) - The Washington Wizards briefly pulled above .500 but had their defense abandon them in back-to-back losses to fall a game under the even point. The Wizards will attempt to get back to .500 when they close out a five-game homestand by hosting the Sacramento Kings on Sunday. The Kings went into an offensive funk in the fourth quarter of a 99-89 loss at Boston to kick off a four-game road trip on Friday.
The loss to the Celtics marked the fifth straight road setback for Sacramento, which had picked up some momentum with back-to-back wins before heading out on the road. DeMarcus Cousins collected 31 points and 16 rebounds on Friday and is showing no ill effects from an ankle injury that kept him out six games by posting averages of 27 points and 14 boards in the last three contests. Cousins could be in for another big night against Washington, which was beaten on the boards 45-34 by the Cavaliers.
•ABOUT THE KINGS (17-33 SU, 23-25-2 ATS): Cousins was passed over for a reserve spot on the All-Star roster twice - first by the Western Conference coaches and then by commissioner Adam Silver - and may have had the snub on his mind in Boston. “Tough loss,” Cousins told the Sacramento Bee. “I don’t think I came in focused, either. There were some outside things distracting me.” Silver named New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis to the West squad as an injury replacement, passing over Cousins and his 22.9 points and 11.7 rebounds. It also did not help that Rudy Gay (illness) missed Friday’s contest and did not practice on Saturday.
•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (24-25 SU, 26-23-0 ATS): Washington got an All-Star bid for point guard John Wall, Cousins’ former college teammate, and Wall did his best to help avoid the two losses with 30.5 points and 9.5 rebounds. The Wizards jumped above .500 with wins over two of the best teams in the NBA in Oklahoma City and Portland but came up just short in an overtime loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday before letting up against lowly Cleveland. “It’s easy to get up against the good teams,” forward Martell Webster told the Washington Post. “Where we fold is these teams below .500 come in and we play down to the level.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Sacramento has taken three straight in the series, including each of its last two trips to Washington.... Kings G Marcus Thornton (hip) sat out Friday’s game and is questionable for Sunday.... Webster is 8-of-14 from 3-point range over the last two games.... The Wizards are 8-21 versus the spread in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last three seasons.... The Kings are 15-2 against the spread after having lost 8 or more of their last ten games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the spread 509 times, while WASHINGTON covered the spread 465 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON won the game straight up 577 times, while SACRAMENTO won 399 times. In 1000 simulated games, 581 games went over the total, while 390 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.
--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the first half line 511 times, while WASHINGTON covered the first half line 489 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 510 games went over first half total, while 490 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 16-16 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--SACRAMENTO is 17-15 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--18 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SACRAMENTO is 17-15 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--19 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
--Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Washington.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Kings are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 3-0-2 in Kings last 5 road games.
--Under is 4-0-1 in Kings last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
--Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Wizards are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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#813 INDIANA @ #814 ORLANDO
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, FSN Indiana, FSN Florida (Orlando) - Line: Pacers -8, Total: 188.5) - The Orlando Magic look to follow up an inspiring victory over the Western Conference leaders by beating the top team in the East when they host the Indiana Pacers on Sunday. Tobias Harris’ dunk at the buzzer gave Orlando a 103-102 triumph over Oklahoma City on Friday to extend its home winning streak to four and take back-to-back games for the first time since late December. The Pacers have won four in a row, including a 98-79 victory over the Magic on Monday.
Indiana earned their fourth straight Friday with a 118-113 overtime win against Portland as George Hill poured in a career-high 37 points. The Pacers’ second-leading scorer, Lance Stephenson, missed that game with a sore back and is questionable for an Orlando team which has won three of five overall. The Magic’s improving offense, which boasts six players averaging at least 12.7, must find a way to unlock an Indiana defense which leads the league in points allowed (90.7).
•ABOUT THE PACERS (39-10 SU, 31-18-0 ATS): Hill averaged 5.7 points and made 6-of-20 from the field in the previous three games before his career night against Portland that included nine rebounds and eight assists. More offense from Hill takes pressure off leading scorer Paul George (22.6) and opens up the floor for David West (13.5) and Roy Hibbert (12), who leads the team in rebounding (7.7). The Pacers had a 52-38 edge on the boards against Orlando last week and stand second in the league with a plus-4.8 rebounding margin.
•ABOUT THE MAGIC (15-37 SU, 22-30-0 ATS): Rookie Victor Oladipo rebounded from a 2-of-11 shooting night against Indiana to average 17 points and make 13 of his 17 shots from the field to help the Magic win two straight for the first time since Dec. 27 and 29. Arron Afflalo leads the team in scoring (19.8) while Oladipo (13.8) and Harris (13.7) are next among a balanced group. Center Nikola Vucevic notched his 20th double-double of the season against Oklahoma City and averages 13.1 points to go with a team-best 10.7 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Pacers have held 21 opponents under 40 percent shooting and 11 to fewer than 80 points.... Orlando PG Jameer Nelson did not play last week against Indiana due to a sore knee and has 16 assists in two games since.... Indiana has won eight of the last nine meetings with Orlando, including two home wins this season.... Orlando is 9-20 against the spread versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game this season.... The Pacers are 12-3 versus the spread when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the spread 517 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 459 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 655 times, while ORLANDO won 314 times. In 1000 simulated games, 509 games went over the total, while 491 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In 1000 simulated games, ORLANDO covered the first half line 535 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 465 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 484 games went over first half total, while 478 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 34-30 against the spread versus ORLANDO since 1996.
--INDIANA is 35-33 straight up against ORLANDO since 1996.
--37 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--INDIANA is 34-30 versus the first half line when playing against ORLANDO since 1996.
--34 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pacers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Under is 8-1 in Pacers last 9 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--Under is 4-0 in Magic last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Over is 4-0 in Magic last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
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#815 PHILADELPHIA @ #816 LA CLIPPERS
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, CSN Philadelphia, Prime Ticket (Los Angeles) - Line: Clippers -16, Total: 219.5) - Chris Paul expects to return on Sunday and it appears only a setback close to tip-off will prevent him from being out the court when the Los Angeles Clippers host the Philadelphia 76ers. Paul has missed 18 games with a shoulder injury and is pushing his return as he wants to play in next weekend’s All-Star Game. Philadelphia has a strong point guard in rookie Michael Carter-Williams but enters with a five-game skid.
The Clippers are 12-6 since Paul got injured and coach Doc Rivers expects it to take a couple weeks for Paul to regain his form. Rivers said he was still pondering Saturday whether or not to play Paul but all indications were that it would indeed happen. “I fully know that he wants to play, let’s put it that way,” Rivers told reporters. “I just don’t know if we’re going to allow him to play yet. I just want to see how he feels, how his body feels. I want to see him on the floor. I just want to make sure Chris is not pushing to play. Players do that.”
•ABOUT THE 76ERS (15-36 SU, 20-31-0 ATS): Philadelphia may lack assets but the point guard position is in pretty good shape with Carter-Williams excelling and backup Tony Wroten developing in his second NBA campaign. Carter-Williams is averaging 17 points and 6.6 assists and has been one of the league’s top rookies despite his outside shot – 29.6 percent from 3-point range – being a work in progress. Wroten is averaging 17.5 points over the last four games and his season average of 12.9 is a substantial improvement over his rookie output of 2.6 points for the Memphis Grizzlies.
•ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (35-18 SU, 30-23-0 ATS): Power forward Blake Griffin has scored 36 or more points in each of the past three games and has strung together 11 consecutive games of 20 or more points. Griffin is the first player to post three straight 35-point outings since the Clippers relocated to Los Angeles with Lloyd Free – who starred for the San Diego Clippers – being the last to achieve it in 1979. “Man, that guy is amazing,” guard Willie Green said after Griffin scored 36 in Friday’s victory over Toronto. “He makes his mind up that he’s just going to be dominant and there’s nothing anybody can do.”
•PREGAME NOTES: Los Angeles has won six of the past eight meetings, including a 94-83 victory in Philadelphia on Dec. 9.... Sixers C Spencer Hawes has put together back-to-back double-doubles but had just two points and four rebounds in the December loss to the Clippers.... Clippers G J.J. Redick (back) will likely miss his third straight game.... Philadelphia is 7-17 against the spread versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.... The Clippers are 11-2 versus the spread versus poor 3-point shooting teams - making less than 33% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS covered the spread 571 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the spread 411 times. *EDGE against the spread =LA CLIPPERS. In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS won the game straight up 866 times, while PHILADELPHIA won 128 times. In 1000 simulated games, 775 games went under the total, while 225 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS covered the first half line 486 times, while PHILADELPHIA covered the first half line 478 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 710 games went under first half total, while 290 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PHILADELPHIA is 18-13 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 17-15 straight up against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--17 of 31 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--PHILADELPHIA is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--76ers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--76ers are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles.
--Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Under is 3-0-1 in 76ers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
--Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 Sunday games.
--Over is 8-0 in Clippers last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
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