4* #848 PURDUE/MICHIGAN STATE Under
Looking for fluid offensive play in a game that produces clean runs up and down the court? This is not it. The first four Tom Izzo/Matt Painter head-to-heads on this court have produce counts of 126, 114, 100 and 125, an average of 116.3 that is not even close to what the oddsmakers are projecting. The games have featured slow tempos, clutching and grabbing on defense, fierce competition on the boards, and precious few easy baskets. And that is exactly what we expect to see again today, as Purdue takes the court for the first time in years without Robbie Hummel.We think the straight adjustment on this game has been done well in terms of reflecting Hummel’s absence – the Boilermakers are a gritty team with a lot of veteran savvy that can make up in other ways for what Hummel brings overall. But in terms of the Total it is a much different story. He was averaging 16.2 ppg in Big 10 play, knocking down 40.9 percent of his triples and 89.2 percent at the free throw line, and was second on the team in assists, with a phenomenal ratio of 36 dishes vs. only 14 turnovers. The latter is almost unheard of for someone that plays his position. There just is no way to replace that, and it only exposes the fact that the rest of the lineup is extremely mediocre offensively, especially when it comes to players creating their own shots. Replacing him will be Kelsey Barlow, and that means plenty of quickness and athleticism on defense, but an entirely different offensive presence – he has only taken five 3-point attempts in 230 floor minutes, missing all of them, and he has only made 51.4 percent of his free throws. But he can guard tenaciously on the perimeter, and that matters against that tough Michigan State back-court.The Spartans have not meshed offensively this season, something somewhat hidden by the fact that they have only had one road game against a fellow member of the Big 10 elite, that being an ugly 49-point outing at Wisconsin. But they bring that usual physical play and solid fundamentals on defense, and in a showdown game, that is where Tim Izzo wants again looks first to set the tone.