Brian Edwards
Matchup: Atlanta at New Orleans
Play: Atlanta (ML +155)
I know New Orleans has been tough at home but other than Tampa Bay, who have the Saints beaten at home that's on the Falcons' level? Nobody. This Atlanta team is gaining confidence every week and might have the best team chemistry in the league one year after having the worst. I think Matt Ryan torches New Orleans' defense all day just like he did when these teams met in Atlanta a few weeks ago. Let's go the money-line route for the generous payout. Falcons win outright!
New York-A at San Fran.
Play: Over (44.0 -110)
The 'over' is on a 5-0-1 run for the Jets and a 6-2 surge for the 49ers, who return to California weather this week after the 'under' cashed in San Francisco's cold-weather win at Buffalo. We know the Jets can put up points and that their pass defense is very vulnerable. Shaun Hill doesn't always look smooth, but he gets the job done, as evidenced by his 8/3 TD-INT ratio. I like the 'over' here. More picks to follow, should have 4-5 up by late Friday or early Saturday.
Washington at Baltimore
Play: Over (35.0 -110)
The 'over' is on a 6-0-1 tear in Baltimore's last seven games. During that stretch, the Ravens have scored 27 points or more in six of the games with the lone exception coming at the Giants, and I grant mulligans when it comes to what the rest of the league does against the G-Men, who I say have the best team in the NFL. This is a low total that goes 'over.'
Matchup: Phila. at New York-N
Play: New York-N (-6.5 -110)
The Giants look like the best team in the NFL to me. They are nasty at home, posting a 6-0 straight-up record and a 5-1 against-the-spread mark. Even with the Plax Distrax, this team hasn't lost its focus one bit. Philly did look better in its Thanksgiving night drubbing of the Cardinals, but the Eagles are just 2-3-1 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road this year. Give me the G-Men! Also, not sure if I'll back the Bears laying the 6 1/2, but I do think they are a good team to wrap up in a teaser with the Giants. In that teaser, all you need is for Chicago and New York to win outright at home.
Dallas at Pittsburgh
Play: Over (38 -110)
With Tony Romo back to 100 percent, Dallas has its offense back on track, scoring 35 and 34 points in its last two games. The 'over' is 7-5 overall for both squads, 4-2 in Pittsburgh home games. Anytime you have a number in the 30s, you're tempted to look 'over,' especially in a game in which both offenses have weapons galore like T.O., Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, etc. Let's go with the 'over.'