Service Plays Sunday 12/7/08

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Golden Contender

sunday system club play part of solid card-

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Sunday system club play courtesy of selectivesportssystem-On Sunday afternoon the system club play is game 142 the Tennesee titans at 1pm eastern.The titans catch a down trodden Browns team here with Ken Dorsey the 3rd string qb playing.As long as they dont allow any special teams points or turnovers,they will eventually wear down the browns defense here.Normally i love the shock value teams place in there first game with a backup qb when no one expects then to win or cover, this is not the case today.Added into the equation is solid system that plays on teams who won a thursday game taking on an opponent who lost a sunday game.Nice little system, the subset of this system applies here today--if our team has a win percentage of 750 or better and the opponent is .350 or less-our team is 12-1 ats since the dawn of time. i have the big 7 unit goy going after 4 eastern from a 96% system for those looking for something to pound.Back the Titans here on sunday and see what brownS can do for you.BOL GC-
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NORTH COAST


COMP NFL UNDER DOG POW ....KANSAS CITY +9

TOTAL POW.....Cle/Tn UNDER 38


AFC POW....INDIANAPOLIS -13'
 
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Bettorsworld

2* RAVENS -5

This is the time of year in the NFL where the cream rises to the top. Teams can have similar records yet at the same time can be so far apart as far as where they are as a team right now. That would appear to be the case between these two teams as the Skins at 7-5 look to be stumbling down the stretch while the Ravens appear to be peaking at just the right time. As a matter of fact, if we break this game down based on what each team has done over the last 7 games, it looks like a complete mismatch. The Ravens side is not without concerns though, which will address further down this page.

Let's first take a look at each teams performance over the last 7 games. The Ravens started the season like many expected. Two wins and only giving up 10 points per game. They then lost 3 in a row, but it's important to note who they lost to. They lost by a field goal in back to back games to two of the NFL's best, the Titans and Steelers. Then they failed to show up against the Colts and were spanked to the tune of 31-3.

But since that Colts loss, they have responded by going 6-1 with their only loss to the Giants. In that 7 game stretch they have outscored their opponents 31-14. They haven't allowed more than 13 points in a game at home all season, outscoring their opponents 24-10 at home. In their last 7 games they have an offensive yards per point number of 11.5 and a defensive yards per point number 18.7. These are some strong numbers at a time of year where it counts the most.

The Redskins on the other hand shocked everyone and started the year 4-1. But since that 4-1 start they are 3-4 and the numbers don't look very good. They have managed to average only 14 points per game over their last 7 games, although their defense has played well giving up on average 17 points per game. Their yards per point numbers over the last 7 games can only be described as horrendous on offense with a 23.3 while their defensive number is an average 15.3. Again, to put these ypp numbers in perspective, the Ravens, over the last 7 games, are scoring one point every 11.5 yards while the Redskins are scoring one point every 23.3 yards. Wow.

The Ravens defense has always been a good one. What makes this team scary right now is that they have an offense to go along with that great defense. It's the complete package. Realize that over the last 7 games the Redskins have scored 17 points or less in 5 of those games. The Ravens on the other hand have scored 27 points or more in 6 of the last 7 games.

We mentioned some concerns we had with the Ravens this week. We have concerns in two areas. One being the strength of opposition over the last 7 games. It's safe to say the Skins have had a tougher schedule over that stretch, but really, not by much. They other concern is what lies ahead. The Ravens have a HUGE game on tap next week with the Steelers. The look ahead angle is more of a factor in college ball than it is in the NFL though. That's not to say that an NFL team can't get caught looking ahead, or can't get caught taking a team lightly. It's just not as likely at this level.

The NFL is a wacky league from a betting standpoint. Often times throughout the year you simply can't break games down by the numbers and gain an edge. There is so much parity that often times, what should happen doesn't. But once you get to December, the cream starts to rise and the talent takes over. From here forward you can break games down based on the facts and have a much better chance at success than say, week 4 or 5.

So with that in mind, we're going to lay the 5 points here with the superior team. The team that's playing exceptionally well defensively that finally has an offense to match. The Team that's dominating opponents at home and is going to be a major threat and a team to watch this year in the playoffs. We're backing them against a Redskins team that's having major problems offensively and is left to relying on an injured Clinton Portis to carry the load.

As a side note, if you're looking for teams to use in teaser wagers this week, consider the Ravens. We just don't see them losing this game. +1 on a teaser looks too good to pass up.

2* RAVENS -5 OVER REDSKINS
 
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Wild Bill

Colts -13 1/2 (5 units)
Detroit +9 1/2 (5 units)
Packers -6 (5 units)
Atlanta +3 (5 units)
Jets -4 (5 units)
Over 52 Falcons-Saints (5 units)
Dolphins +1 (5 units)
Arizona -13 (5 units)
Over 48 1/2 Rams-Cardinals (5 units)
Dallas +3 (5 units)
Carolina -3 (5 units)
 
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Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

Green Bay -6 vs Houston
Tennessee -13.5 vs Cleveland
Philadelphia +7 vs NY Giants
Arizona -13.5 vs St. Louis
Carolina -3 vs Tampa Bay
Houston/Green Bay Over 47

Single Plays

San Francisco +4 NY Jets
Baltimore -5 vs Washington
Indy/Cincy Under 42.5
Baltimore/Washinton Under 36
Tennessee/Cleveland Under 37.5
St. Louis/Arizona Over 49
Dallas +3 vs Pittsburgh
 
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<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">SPORTS ADVISORS

Cincinnati (1-10-1, 4-8 ATS) at Indianapolis (8-4, 5-7 ATS)

The streaking Colts aim for their sixth straight victory when they take on the lowly Bengals at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Indianapolis scrapped its way past Cleveland 10-6, failing to cover as a five-point road chalk but still posting its fifth consecutive SU win. QB Peyton Manning (15 of 21, 125 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) had dismal day as the Colts had three turnovers and totaled just 215 yards. But Indy allowed only 193 yards and forced two turnovers, both in the fourth quarter, with the first resulting in the game-winning score as Robert Mathis rumbled 37 yards for a fumble-return TD.

Cincinnati’s freefall continued in a 34-3 setback to Baltimore as a seven-point home underdog, giving Cincy a 2-5 ATS mark in its last seven games (1-5-1 SU). The Bengals mustered a paltry 155 total yards in just over 21 minutes time of possession, while allowing a whopping 480 yards and nearly 39 minutes time of possession.

The Colts are on a 4-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the favorite has cashed in five of the last six clashes, including Indy’s 34-16 victory two seasons ago as a 3½-point home favorite.

The Colts are on ATS slides of 1-6 at home and 3-9 in December, but they are on an 8-4 ATS run as a double-digit chalk. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 catching double digits, but the pointspread trends drop off from there, including 1-8 against the AFC and 1-4 after a SU loss.

The over is 5-2 in Indianapolis’ last seven December contests and 5-1 for Cincinnati against winning teams, but the under is on runs of 5-1 for Cincy in December and 9-4-1 for the Bengals against the AFC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS


Jacksonville (4-8, 3-9 ATS) at Chicago (6-6, 5-6-1 ATS)

The Bears, aiming to gain some ground in a quest for a playoff spot, welcome the slumping Jaguars to Soldier Field for a non-conference contest.

Chicago got pounded at Minnesota 34-14 last Sunday night as a five-point road pup, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games. QB Kyle Orton (11 of 29, 153 yards) had a miserable start, offsetting two TD passes with three INTs. Chicago, playing its third straight road game, was outgained 378-228 and allowed 178 rushing yards, and the Bears forced just one turnover.

Jacksonville’s plunge continued in a 30-17 loss at Houston as a three-point underdog Monday night for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB David Garrard, who threw just three INTs and had 18 TD passes last season, now has 10 TDs against nine INTs this year. Against the Texans, he was 25 of 35 for 287 yards and a TD, but he threw one INT and lost a fumble, as the Jags lost the turnover battle, 3-1.

The SU winner is now 23-2-1 ATS in the Bears’ last 26 games (10-1-1 ATS this season) and is 8-0 ATS in the Jags’ last eight.

These teams haven’t met since 2004, when Jacksonville scored a 22-3 win giving seven points at home, and the home team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.

The Bears are on ATS declines of 1-4 overall, 2-8 as a home chalk and 3-6 hosting an AFC squad, but they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after a SU loss and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a pointspread setback. The Jaguars are on ATS skids of 1-5 overall, 1-11 on grass and 2-5 outside the AFC South.

The over for Chicago is on streaks of 19-7 at home and 8-3 in December, and the over for Jacksonville is on runs of 15-6-3 overall, 9-1 in December and 12-4-2 on the highway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Houston (5-7 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (5-7, 7-5 ATS)

The Packers, rapidly sliding out of the playoff chase, attempt to get back on track in a non-conference game with the Texans at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay’s losing skid hit four with last week’s 35-31 shootout loss to Carolina as a three-point home favorite, the team’s second straight ATS defeat following a 5-0 ATS surge. QB Aaron Rodgers (29 of 45, 298 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a solid day, and the Pack outgained the Panthers 438-298 while posting nearly 38 minutes time of possession. Green Bay rallied from a 21-10 halftime deficit to take a 31-28 lead with two minutes left, but the Pack then gave up a two-play, 55-yard TD drive to lose it.

Houston topped Jacksonville 30-17 on Monday night as a three-point home chalk, winning for the second straight week and cashing for the third week in a row. Rookie RB Steve Slaton (21 carries, 130 yards, 2 TDs) had a big game, and the Texans won the turnover battle 3-1 to make up for a 388-326 deficit in total yards.

These teams have met just once before, with Green Bay winning 16-13 but Houston covering as a 3½-point home pup in 2004.

Despite failing to cover the last two weeks, the Packers are still on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 7-1 against losing teams, 8-3-1 after a SU loss and 8-3-2 after a non-cover, and they have also cashed in their last six games against AFC foes. The Texans are on a 7-3 ATS stretch against losing teams, but they carry negative pointspread trends of 3-9 on the highway and 6-12-1 against the NFC.

The over for Green Bay is on a plethora of hot streaks, including 22-6-1 overall, 9-2 at Lambeau, 12-3 on grass, 41-17-2 against losing teams and 35-17-1 in December. The over for Houston is on tears of 11-3 overall, 7-1 in roadies, 10-3 in December and 8-3 on grass.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER


Cleveland (4-8, 7-5 ATS) at Tennessee (11-1, 10-2 ATS)

The Titans, needing a victory to clinch the AFC South division and move a step closer to home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, take on the injury-riddled Browns at LP Field.

Tennessee, coming off its first loss, blasted winless Detroit 47-10 on Thanksgiving as an 11-point road favorite, giving the SU winner an 11-1 ATS mark in the Titans’ 12 games this season. QB Kerry Collins (11 of 18 127 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) didn’t need to do much, as running backs Chris Johnson (16 carries, 125 yards, 2 TDs) and Lendale White (23 carries, 106 yards, 2 TDs) led a running attack that netted 292 yards. Tennessee won the turnover battle 3-1 and the time of possession battle by nearly 14 minutes (36:54-23:06).

Cleveland’s near-upset of Indianapolis last Sunday was doomed by late turnovers in a 10-6 loss as a five-point home pup, as the Browns dropped to 1-4 SU in their last five starts (2-3 ATS). QB Derek Anderson (16 of 26, 110 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs), subbing for the injured Brady Quinn, had a fourth-quarter fumble returned for the game-winning TD. Anderson later suffered a left-knee injury, and Ken Dorsey threw an INT with just over a minute left to end Cleveland’s hopes.

Anderson tore his left MCL and like Quinn is done for the year, so Dorsey will start this week.

These franchises last met in 2005, with Cleveland taking a 20-14 home win as a three-point favorite, ending a 6-0 ATS run by the visitor in this rivalry.

Along with their 10-2 ATS mark this season, the Titans are on a bevy of ATS surges, including 6-0 against losing teams, 7-1 against the AFC, 9-2 after a SU win and 7-2 after a spread-cover. The Browns, despite their dismal SU record, are on spread-covering streaks of 18-8-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 7-0 as an underdog, 14-3-1 against winning teams and 10-3-1 after a SU loss.

The over for Tennessee is on upticks of 4-1 at home, 4-1 against losing teams and 6-2-1 in December, but the under for Cleveland is on runs of 13-5 overall, 7-0 in December and 6-2 on the road.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE


Minnesota (7-5, 5-7 ATS) at Detroit (0-12, 4-8 ATS)

The Vikings go after their third consecutive victory while trying to keep the Lions winless in an NFC North meeting at Ford Field.

Minnesota whipped Chicago 34-14 last Sunday Night as a five-point home chalk for its second straight win and cover. QB Gus Frerotte (16 of 25, 210 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a 99-yard TD pass after Minnesota stuffed the Bears on fourth-and-goal to turn around momentum in the game, and his INT served as the Vikes’ lone turnover. RB Adrian Peterson racked up 131 yards and a TD on 28 carries, and Minnesota forced three turnovers and outgained the Bears 378-228.

Detroit got punished 47-10 by Tennessee on Thanksgiving, failing to cash for the third time in the last four weeks, and the Lions are now 1-19 SU and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games. The Lions were held to a pitiful 154 total yards, and despite getting all their points in the first half, they still trailed 35-10 at the break. QB Daunte Culpepper (13 of 26, 134 yards) had one TD offset by an INT that was returned for a score.

Minnesota is 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with Detroit, escaping with a 12-10 home win back in October, but never threatening to cover as a 13-point favorite. The Lions won last year’s contest at Ford Field 20-17 in overtime as a three-point chalk.

The Vikings are on ATS slides of 0-5 in division play, 1-7 after a SU win, 2-5 as a road chalk, 2-5 overall on the highway and 6-13 in December. Likewise, the Lions are on pointspread declines of 0-7 at Ford Field, 1-7 as a home pup, 2-7-1 hosting a division opponent and 2-6 against winning teams.

The over for Minnesota is on runs of 5-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 inside the division and 8-3 on field turf, and the over for Detroit is on streaks of 21-8-1 overall, 7-0 in December, 8-1-1 on field turf and 7-1-1 at home. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 clashes at Ford Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Philadelphia (6-5-1, 7-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (11-1, 10-2 ATS)

The red-hot Giants, who have home-field advantage for the playoffs in their sights, face the inconsistent Eagles in an NFC East clash in East Rutherford, N.J.

New York, which can clinch the division title with a win today, coasted past Washington 23-7 as a 3½-point road chalk last week, making the SU winner 22-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 24 games, including 11-1 this season. QB Eli Manning (21 of 34, 305 yards 1 TD, 1 INT) had his first 300-yard passing game since last October and he paced an offense that outgained the Redskins 404-320. New York won the time of possession battle by more than 11 minutes (35:44-24:16).

Philadelphia punished Arizona 48-20 on Thanksgiving as a three-point home favorite to end a three-game winless streak (0-2-1) and an 0-3 ATS slide. QB Donovan McNabb (27 of 39, 260 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs) bounced back after getting picked off five times in his previous two games, and RB Brian Westbrook (22 carries, 110 yards) had two TD runs and two TD receptions. The Eagles outgained the Cards 437-260, held the ball nearly twice as long (39:33-20:27) and won the turnover battle, 4-1.

New York is on runs of 3-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in this rivalry, including a 36-31 road win getting three points last month, with the Giants finishing with a 401-300 edge in total offense, including 219-106 rushing. The underdog has cashed in seven straight meetings in this series, and the visitor is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests.

The Giants are on spread-covering sprees of 45-22-2 overall, 6-1 at home this year (4-0 last four), 5-0 in division play, 9-3 when hosting divisional rivals and 9-3 as a favorite against NFC East foes. The Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road, but they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NFC East contests.

The over for New York is on streaks of 7-3-1 overall, 7-2-1 after a SU win and 8-3-1 at home, and the over for Philadelphia is on stretches of 8-3 on the road and 22-8-1 against winning teams. However, even though last month’s meeting in Philly easily topped the total, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 series clashes at Giants Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS


Atlanta (8-4 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (6-6, 8-4 ATS)

The Falcons, aiming to firm up their status as a playoff contender, head to the Big Easy for an NFC South showdown with the desperate Saints at the Superdome.

Atlanta crossed the country last week and knocked off San Diego 22-16 as a 6½-point ‘dog, giving the SU winner a 20-1 ATS record in the Falcons’ last 21 games, including a perfect 12-0 ATS mark this season. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (17 of 23, 207 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) continued to shine in helping Atlanta overcome a 3-0 turnover deficit. RB Michael Turner (31 carries, 120 yards) had another bid day, and Atlanta’s defense allowed just 201 total yards and 25 minutes time of possession.

New Orleans fell short at Tampa Bay 23-20 last Sunday, narrowly covering as a 3½-point pup to cash for the third straight week. QB Drew Brees went 25-for-47 for 296 yards, but he had two TDs offset by three INTs, and the Saints’ 10-point fourth-quarter rally to tie the game was ultimately turned back when the Bucs’ Matt Bryant hit a 37-yard field goal with two minutes left.

These teams have split the cash in their last four clashes, with New Orleans going 3-1 SU, However, the Falcons’ lone win during this four-game stretch came a month ago, when it pounded the Saints 34-20 as a one-point home chalk. Atlanta is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 trips to New Orleans.

The Falcons are on ATS surges of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on field turf and 4-1 against the NFC, but they are on an 0-5 SU and ATS nosedive as an underdog in divisional play and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven NFC South contests overall. The Saints are in ATS ruts of 4-9 in home division games and 5-11 after a spread-cover, but they sport positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 at home and 6-0 after a SU loss.

The over for New Orleans is on streaks of 12-4-1 overall, 9-1-1 at home, 6-0 in December and 11-1-1 on field turf, but the under for Atlanta is on runs of 5-2 overall and 36-15-1 on the road. Additionally, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings between these rivals in the Superdome.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS


N.Y. Jets (8-4, 7-5 ATS) at San Francisco (4-8, 5-7 ATS)

The Jets will look to get back on track when they make the cross-country trek to Monster Park for a non-conference contest with the 49ers.

New York had its five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) end with a thud in last week’s 34-17 loss to Denver as a healthy 7½-point home chalk, QB Brett Favre (23 of 43, 247 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had a mediocre outing, and RB Thomas Jones’ big day (16 carries, 138 yards, 2 TDs) went for naught as the Jets defense got carved up for 357 yards passing and two TDs by Denver QB Jay Cutler.

San Francisco is coming off a stunning 10-3 win at Buffalo as a 6½-point road pup, becoming the first West Coast team to win SU on the East Coast this season. QB Shaun Hill (14 of 23, 161 yards, 1 TD) was serviceable enough as the 49ers, who are 3-1 ATS in their last four, won a yawner despite getting outgained 350-195 and each team having just one turnover. The 49ers defense yielded just three points on the Bills’ four trips to the red zone.

The SU winner is now 22-1 ATS in the Niners’ last 23 games (11-1 ATS this year),

These teams have split two meetingse this decade, with San Fran going 2-0 ATS.

The Jets are on positive ATS streaks of 7-2 on the road, 6-2 in December, 5-2 after a non-cover, 10-6-1 as a road chalk and 6-2 as a non-conference favorite. Despite their recent ATS uptick, the 49ers remain in pointspread funks of 5-11 at home, 2-6 as a home ‘dog, 3-8 after a spread-cover, 2-5 after a SU win and 3-7 against winning teams.

For New York, the over is on stretches of 5-0-1 overall, 4-0 on grass and 5-1-1 after a loss of more than 14 points, and the over for San Francisco is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 on grass and 4-0 at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Miami (7-5, 5-7 ATS) vs. Buffalo (6-6, 5-7 ATS) (at Toronto

The Dolphins aim to keep pace in the AFC East when they travel north of the border to the Rogers Centre to take on the Bills, who are the designated home team in the first-ever regular-season game played in Canada

Miami held off St. Louis 16-12 as a seven-point road favorite, winning for the fifth time in six weeks but failing to cover for the fourth week in a row. Chad Pennington (13 of 23, 166 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) avoided any turnovers but didn’t do much else in a game featuring three field goals from each team. The Dolphins finished with a 3-1 edge in the turnover battle.

Buffalo had its playoff hopes diminished in a 10-3 upset loss to San Francisco as a 6½-point home chalk. RB Marshawn Lynch (16 carries, 134 yards) had a huge day, but the Bills failed to find the end zone, with four red-zone drives netting just a field goal. QB Trent Edwards (10 of 21, 112 yards) left after the first half with a groin injury, and J.P. Losman (11 of 17, 93 yards) finished out the game. Buffalo lost despite outgaining the Niners 350-195.

Buffalo is on a 7-1-1 ATS run (7-2 SU) against the Dolphins, though Miami won 25-16 laying one point at home in October. The favorite is on a 6-2-1 ATS surge in this series.

The Dolphins are on ATS slides of 6-21-2 in AFC East games and 5-14 in division roadies, and the Bills are also struggling at the betting window, with negative ATS streaks of 1-5 overall, 0-6 against winning teams and 1-4 inside the division.

The under for Miami is on streaks of 5-1 overall and 9-2 after a SU win, and the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings between these two, but the over is 13-5 in Buffalo’s last 18 games in December.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Kansas City (2-10, 6-6 ATS) at Denver (7-5, 5-7 ATS)

The Broncos look to move a step closer to the AFC West title when they meet the Chiefs in a battle between hated division rivals at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Denver shocked the Jets 34-17 as a 7½-point road pup, bouncing back from a stunning 21-point home loss to the Raiders to move to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games, with all three wins and covers coming on the road. QB Jay Cutler (27 of 43, 357 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) led an offense that racked up 484 total yards, with rookie RB Peyton Hillis rushing for 129 yards and a TD. The Broncos outgained New York by 101 yards and won the turnover battle, 2-1.

Kansas City beat Oakland 20-13 as a three-point road underdog last week to end a seven-game losing streak (3-4 ATS) that dated back to its home upset of Denver in Week 3. QB Tyler Thigpen (15 of 22, 162 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) led the Chiefs to 10 fourth-quarter points, and RB Larry Johnson (24 carries, 92 yards, 1 TD) had a fair outing. K.C. also benefited from a 67-yard fumble-return TD by Maurice Leggett on Oakland’s botched fake field-goal attempt.

Kansas City has cashed in four of the last six contests in this rivalry, including a 33-19 victory catching 9½ points in September. The home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 series clashes, and Denver is on a 6-1 ATS run in the last seven meetings at Invesco.

The Broncos, despite their current pointspread uptick, remain on ATS freefalls of 10-25-1 overall, 5-17-1 at home, 2-10-1 against losing teams and 3-12-1 in division play. The Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against winning teams, but they carry positive ATS trends of 10-3 on the highway and 5-2 when visiting AFC West foes..

The over for Denver is on multiple runs, including 9-2 in the AFC West, 7-2-1 in December, 20-7-1 on grass and 10-4 against losing teams, and the over for Kansas City is on runs of 5-2 on the road and 22-10 in December. Finally, the total has gone high in 11 of the past 14 meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER



St. Louis (2-10, 4-8 ATS) at Arizona (7-5 SU and ATS)

The Cardinals will try to shake a two-game SU and ATS losing streak and wrap up their first-ever NFC West title when they face the lowly Rams at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Arizona returns from a 10-day break after tumbling 48-20 at Philadelphia as a three-point road ‘dog on Thanksgiving night. QB Kurt Warner (21 of 39, 235 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs) was playing from behind much of the way, as the Cards trailed 21-0 midway through the second quarter, and Arizona finished with just 260 total yards and four turnovers, while the Eagles racked up 437 yards and had just one turnover.

St. Louis lost to Miami 16-12 for its sixth straight loss, but the Rams halted a four-game ATS slide by covering as a seven-point home pup. QB Marc Bulger (16 of 35, 149 yards, 0 TDs) had three INTs for all of St. Louis’ turnovers, including a pick in the final minute of the game to seal the win, and the Rams forced just one Miami miscue.

Arizona is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the last four meetings in this rivalry and is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 battles, including a 34-13 rout as a three-point road favorite on Nov. 2. The underdog is on an 8-2 ATS roll, and the visitor has cashed in five of the last seven battles.

The Cardinals sport ATS streaks of 12-5 after a SU loss and 4-1 versus the NFC West, while the Rams carry nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 0-5 inside the division, 2-8 against the NFC, 5-9-1 on the road, 20-44-1 after a SU loss and 6-13 in December.

The over for Arizona is on tears of 39-19 overall, 7-0 at home, 20-8 in December and 9-4 in division games, and the over for St. Louis is on runs of 6-1 in December and 11-5 after a SU loss. Also, the over is 3-1 in the last four series meetings, the lone “under” coming in last month’s clash in St. Louis.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER


Dallas (8-4, 6-6 ATS) at Pittsburgh (9-3, 6-6 ATS)

The Cowboys, in need of a victory to keep pace in the wild-card chase, travel to Heinz Field for a non-conference clash with the first-place Steelers.

Dallas drilled Seattle 34-9 on Thanksgiving as an 11½-point favorite to win and cover for the third straight week. QB Tony Romo (22 of 34, 331 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a huge day as the Cowboys finished with a 447-322 advantage in total yards, and the Cowboys defense yielded just three field goals while sacking Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck seven times.

Pittsburgh routed New England 33-10 as a one-point road pup for its third straight win and second consecutive cover. The Steelers’ top-ranked defense was the big difference yet again, bagging five turnovers, including forcing Pats QB Matt Cassel into two INTs and two lost fumbles while also racking up five sacks. Pittsburgh shut out New England in the second half.

These former Super Bowl rivals have met just once this decade in regular-season play, with Pittsburgh taking a 24-20 road victory getting three points in the most recent battle in 2004.

The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 4-1 overall and 6-3 against the AFC, but they’ve failed to cash in six straight December contests. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in December and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home meetings with NFC teams, but they are on pointspread slides of 1-4 at home, 2-6 after a spread-cover and 3-7 as a home chalk.

The over for Pittsburgh is on streaks of 11-5 overall, 37-14-2 at Heinz Field and 5-1 after a SU win, and the over for Dallas is on stretches of 16-7-2 on the highway, 4-1 after a SU win and 16-5-2 after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


New England (7-5, 6-6 ATS) at Seattle (2-10, 4-7-1 ATS)

The Patriots, currently on the outside looking in for a playoff spot, make the long road trip to the Pacific Northwest to face the struggling Seahawks at Qwest Field.

New England got pounded by Pittsburgh 33-10 giving one point at home last Sunday and has now alternated SU wins and losses over its last six games. After consecutive 400-yard passing games, Pats QB Matt Cassel (19 of 39, 169 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) took a beating, getting sacked five times and losing a pair of second-half fumbles in committing four of the Patriots’ five turnovers.

Seattle traveled to Dallas on Thanksgiving and got drilled 34-9 as an 11½-point road underdog, its fifth consecutive SU setback (1-3-1 ATS). QB Matt Hasselbeck (22 of 38, 287 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) got sacked seven times, and the Seahawks netted just three field goals on the day despite three trips to the red zone.

These squads last met in 2004, when New England won 30-20 as a 3½-point home chalk.

The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against losing teams, but the pointspread trends go upward from there, including 35-16-1 on the highway, 5-0 after a non-cover, 9-2-1 against the NFC, 19-7-1 after a SU loss and 20-7 as a road favorite. The Seahawks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a non-cover, but otherwise are on ATS dives of 1-5-1 against winning teams, 1-4 at home and 3-6 as a home underdog.

The under for New England is on streaks of 5-1 against losing teams, 8-3-2 on field turf and 9-4-1 after a SU loss, and the under for Seattle is on runs of 5-0 overall, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-0 after a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER


Washington (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS) at Baltimore (8-4, 9-3 ATS)

Two regional rivals hoping to keep playoff berths in their sights square off when the Redskins make the quick trip to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens in a non-conference contest.

Washington tumbled to the Giants 23-7 as a 3½-point home ‘dog a week ago, falling to 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games. QB Jason Campbell chucked the ball 38 times but got little return for his effort, with 23 completions for 232 yards with no TDs and one INT. The Redskins lost the turnover battle 2-1 and had more than an 11-minute deficit in time of possession (35:44-24:16), while getting outgained 404-320.

Baltimore pummeled Cincinnati 34-3 as a seven-point road chalk to win and cash for the second week in a row and the sixth time in its last seven games. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (19 of 29, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, and the Ravens defense held the Bengals to just 155 total yards, helping Baltimore nearly double Cincinnati in time of possession (38:58-21:02).

The SU winner is 17-1-1 ATS in Washington’s last 19 games (10-1-1 ATS this season) and 21-2 ATS in Baltimore’s last 23 outings (11-1 ATS this season).

Baltimore and Washington have met just twice this decade, with both going 1-1 SU and ATS. The Ravens netted the most recent win, 17-10 as a one-point road chalk in 2004.

The Redskins are on ATS dips of 1-5-1 overall, 0-7-1 against the AFC and 2-5-1 after a SU loss, though they have gone 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Conversely, the Ravens are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 at home, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 23-6 as a home chalk.

The under for Washington is on rolls of 7-0-1 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 on grass. On the flip side, the over Baltimore is on tears of 6-0-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 4-1 in December and 19-7-3 on grass.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE

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GameBreaker

Baltimore / Washington
5* Pick Washington +5

Huge game for Washington and I have no doubt they'll be the stronger motivated team. Washington has shown alot of character down the stretch in recent seasons and this is another gut check. They have enough D to be competitive and Portis is expected to play. On the other side, Baltimore is in a more comfortable position and have the biggest game of the season on deck vs the Steelers. Coouldn't blame them if they have less than 100% focus on the 'Skins. Projected weather looks less than ideal and that helps even things out for the dog, especially getting more than 4. Take Washington +5 for a 5* Top Play.


NY Giants / Philadelphia
Pick 3* Philadelphia +6.5

Philadelphia is definitely a motivated team and a live dog. McNabb and Westbrook are coming on and the team has it's confidence back. This is a group that knows what big games are all about and have a playmaking D. Quite a line move from -9 to -6.5 in spite of the fact almost 70% of all bets are on the Giants. Big/smart money is definitely on Philly and I agree. The weather could also make it tougher for the Giants to cover the generous points. Take Philadelphia +6.5 for a 3* play.
 
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CKO


FIRST 11* RATED NFL GAME THIS YEAR

CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 10* (8-6).. NEW ORLEANS
CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF 11* (0-0)... ARIZONA



11 *ARIZONA over St. Louis

*ARIZONA 38 - St. Louis 13

CKO scouts do not expect the Cardinals to be derailed a third straight game as they try to lock up their first
divisional title in 33 years! With Arizona superior to the Rams at nearly every position, look for the best the
Cardinals have after back-to-back losses vs. the NYG and at Philly on Thanksgiving. Insiders report the Arizona
players are determined to keep on winning after this week until they have secured a home playoff game at their
noisy new University of Phoenix Stadium.




10 *NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta

*NEW ORLEANS 34 - Atlanta 20

Do or die for New Orleans to keep alive its flickering playoff hopes. So must expect the prolific Drew Brees to outduel
Atlanta rookie Matt Ryan in the latter’s first appearance in the Superdome, where the Saints are 4-1 vs. the
spread TY. Reggie Bush got some of the kinks out in last week’s Saints’ loss in rainy Tampa Bay. Look for his
speed to be more of a factor this week.




TOTALS: OVER (48) in the Kansas City-Denver game—Chiefs’ emerging offense eager to face soft Denver defense; Broncs’ Cutler and his receivers red hot.
 
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pointwise

NFL Key Selections

3--ARIZONA over St Louis 45-13
3--NEW YORK JETS over San Francisco 34-20
4--NEW ENGLAND over Seattle 30-17
5--MINNESOTA over Detroit 34-13
5--KANSAS CITY (+) over Denver 20-23



Minnesota 34 - DETROIT 13 - (1:00) -- An 0-18 season seems almost inevitable,
as far as the Lions are concerned. Have won just 1 of their last 20 games on
the field, & that in the '07 stretch, while hosting the 4-12 Chiefs. Their latest
futility was witnessed by the entire nation, in a franchise-worst 37-pt loss to the
Titans. Check allowing 34 ppg in their last 18 games. And also check Minny
averaging 27 pts in its last 6 RGs. Visitor now 9-0 ATS in Detroit games. Ditto.



New York Jets 34 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 - (4:05) -- Brett returns to the scene of
his '97 Super Bowl win, and it comes at just the right time, as NY in off shocker
of a setback, hosting the Broncos (25 pts, ATS). That loss snapped a 5-game
NY run, including road upsets of the Bills, Pats, & Titans. And even in that loss
to Denver, note Jones with 138 RYs (8.6 ypr). So, the Niners stand in the way
of the bounceback, & that assignment is hairy, to say the least. Check a deficit
of 350-195 yds in SF upset of the Bills, & a 30.5 ppg "D" in previous 8 outings.


DENVER 23 - Kansas City 20 - (4:05) -- Visitor, visitor, visitor. Only way to go
with these 2, at the moment. Broncos in off splendid win over the Jets (100-yd
edge), behind Cutler & Hillis, with that pushing the recent road edge to 5-0 ATS
in Denver games by 85 pts. So, Denver has a 3-game lead over the Chargers,
while KC enters on a 2-19 SU run. However, the Chiefs, who were our top NFL
Red Sheet play LW, have covered their last 3 RGs by 10, 14, & 10 pts, with the
visitor on a 16-6 ATS run in KC tilts. Denver 1-11 ATS in division off upset win.

ARIZONA 45- St Louis 13 - (4:15) -- Not the best spot for the Rams, who catch
the seething Cards off losses to the Giants & Eagles, managing just 23 & 45
RYs, with 4 INTs from Warner. So, StLouis is 0-for-2, in trying to clinch its
division. Enter the Rams, who have dropped 6 straight, with a 159-47 pt deficit
in their last 5 games, & who have dropped their last 3 division RGs by similar
scores of 48-19, 37-13, & 35-16. Bulger just 7/11 for the season. Arizona is
still at 32 ppg in its last 19 contests, & should take no prisoners in this clincher.


New England 30 - SEATTLE 17 - (4:05) -- Five turnovers (4 by Cassel) for the
normally efficient Pats in 33-10 drubbing at the hands of the Steelers. But they
have been masterful in regrouping, as they've covered all 4 previous games
following losses, including 31-pt & 21-pt covers in 2 of those 4. And check 30
FDs & 530 yds in their last RG. The Seahawks continue among the dregs, &
now stand at an unfathomable 2-10. Nary a TD at Dallas, with Hasselbeck at 6
INTs over the last 3 weeks. Pats are 11-1 ATS vs the NFC West. And another.
 
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Nellys Greensheet
NELLY'S SPORTSLINE 5* (7-3).. NEW ENGLAND

RATING 5 NEW ENGLAND (-4½) over Seattle
RATING 4 DALLAS (+3) over Pittsburgh
RATING 3 ATLANTA (+3) over New Orleans
RATING 2 NY GIANTS (-9) over Philadelphia
RATING 1 KANSAS CITY (+9) over Denver

New England (-4½) SEATTLE (43) 3:05 PM
The Patriots knew QB Cassel would have some games like that but this
should be an opportunity for New England to get right back on track.
Seattle has not been competitive in many games this season and has
lost to two AFC East teams already this season. The great home field
edge has been lost in season that has gone wrong and New England
has not lost back-to-back games all year. PATRIOTS BY 14


PITTSBURGH (-3) Dallas (41½) 3:15 PM
The Cowboys can get back its status as an elite team with a win this
week but this is a critical game as the Cowboys would not be in the
playoffs if everything was settled right now. Pittsburgh delivered an
impressive win in a big game last week but Pittsburgh has not fared well
as a home favorite. The Dallas defense has stepped up in recent weeks
and the Steelers might get beat at their own game. COWBOYS BY 7


NEW ORLEANS (-3) Atlanta (52½) 12:00 PM
The Saints have the most productive offense in the NFL but New
Orleans becomes one-dimensional quickly and Atlanta dominated the
Saints the first time these teams met, just a month ago. The Saints have
not had great success at home in recent years and New Orleans
continues to be an overvalued team on the big score potential. The
Saints were lucky to cover last week and recent wins over Green Bay
and San Diego are not as impressive as once thought. FALCONS BY 3


NEW YORK GIANTS (-9) Philadelphia (44½) 12:00 PM
The Eagles stayed alive with a huge Thanksgiving win last week and this
will be the make-or-break game for the Philadelphia season. New York
won the first meeting by just five points but the game was not as close
as the final outcome. Although Philadelphia has had a few extra days to
ready for this game the Eagles have not proven reliable and the
mistakes on offense and the lack of a short-yardage running game has
been a major problem. New York continues to dominate, with seven
consecutive wins and covers in the last seven weeks. GIANTS BY 14

DENVER (-9) Kansas City (47) 3:05 PM
The Broncos put up big numbers and capitalized on turnovers last week
for a huge win that essentially has locked up the division title. The
Broncos have been far from an impressive team however and the recent
records at home are incredibly bad with just two covers in the last 17 as
home favorites. Kansas City has shown some promise on offense in
recent weeks and the Chiefs beat Denver earlier this season. The
Broncos make too many mistakes and have too poor of a defense to
trust as a significant favorite. BRONCOS BY 3
 
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Lenny Del Genio's 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year (6-2 GOY Mark)
Play on New England at 4:15 ET. New England is our 25* Non-Conference Game of the Year.

Good luck, Lenny
<!-- / message -->
 
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STATFOX
STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET (24-34-1) ... OAK ( L ) ...CINCI...DALLAS...JETS ....WASH

12/7/2008 (135) CINCINNATI at (136)
INDIANAPOLIS
Talk about teams not worthy of double-digit
spreads. Consider the Indianapolis Colts,
winners of five straight games but by a
combined total of 20 points. Manning & Co.
just aren’t firing on all cylinders and it’s going
to take a much better effort to cover 14-points
in this game, regardless of the opponent.
The Colts have scored just 20.4 PPG in their
last seven, so it’s been a prolonged stretch
of offensive mediocrity. Additionally, even in
their best seasons, Indy has struggled in putting the worst of foes away:
Dungy is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games vs. poor offensive teams -
scoring 17 or less points/game as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS. They’ve
lost six straight ATS vs. teams that give up 24 PPG or more, averaging
24.7 PPG in that stretch. With the offense not performing up to par,
Manning’s unit will be fortunate to reach that total.
Play: Cincinnati +14


12/7/2008 (145) WASHINGTON at (146) BALTIMORE
For whatever the reason, Washington seems to play its best football
away from home. The Redskins have lost four of their L5 games at home,
while going 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season. They score
nearly a TD more per game on the road as well. Here they will be hard
pressed to score against a Baltimore team that allows just 10 PPG at
home. However, Washington might not need that many points to stay
within 5-points of the Ravens, as points figure to be hard to come by.
The Ravens’ inability to generate much through the air makes them a
lousy favorite to back, particularly in this spot: Play Against - Home teams
(BALTIMORE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average
passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games. (60-30 over the last 5
seasons.) (66.7%, +27 units. Rating = 2*). Look for Washington to do just
enough offensively to cover and perhaps pull the upset.
Play: Washington +5


12/7/2008 (151) NY JETS at (152) SAN
FRANCISCO
It was disappointing to see the Jets come
out so flat last week against Denver, but they
stand a good chance to rebound here in San
Francisco. The 49ers simply haven’t matched
up with teams that share the same strengths
as New York, primarily stuffing the run on
defense, and the ability to put points on the
board offensively. Take a look at the trends:
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units)
versus good rushing defenses - allowing
<=90 rushing yards/game since 1992. The
average score was SAN FRANCISCO 19.2,
OPPONENT 25.8 - (Rating = 2*) AND SAN
FRANCISCO is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) vs.
good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more
points/game since 1992. The average score
was SAN FRANCISCO 20.1, OPPONENT
25.6 - (Rating = 1*). New York is 8-1 ATS
under Mangini bouncing back from a doubledigit
loss. I like their chances to do so again.
Play: NY Jets -3.5


12/7/2008 (159) DALLAS at (160) PITTSBURGH
Dallas is a team that rides the wave of momentum. In their worst state,
the Cowboys can look awful. In better times, they can be the best team in
the NFL. At this point, it seems that the Cowboys are back on the upward
swing. That could spell trouble for Pittsburgh, who hosts them this week.
The line (Pit -3) fits in well with a trend in which the Cowboys have thrived:
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over
the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 27.7, OPPONENT
14.6 - (Rating = 2*). In other words, when matched against other top level
teams in games that are supposed to be competitive, HC Wade Phillips’
team has been at its best. The Cowboys will need that type of effort again,
but with the offense clicking once again, they should get it.
Play: Dallas +3
 
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NORTHCOAST SPORTS’ POWER PLAYS



NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS 4* (8-9-1).. NEW ENGLAND....MINNY


(MIN #20 vs DET #31 DET #30 vs MIN #9) MIN is in sole position of 1st place in the NFC North & will be very wary of DET who they barely beat 12-10 as a 13.5 pt HF in the 1st game. MIN could be without both
DT’s Williams here which could give DET an outside shot at their 1st win. DET is off their worst loss ever on Thanksgiving & are running out of chances to avoid NFL infamy. PP gives MIN a 388-275 yd edge & Ford Field could only have 50% of its fans. If the Williams DT’s avoid suspension this is a 4★ if not, its a 2★!!! ***4★ VIKINGS 39 LIONS 18**


(NE #9 vs SEA #30 SEA #31 vs NE #13) NE is off an embarrassing home loss with 5 TO’s in the 2H converted into 20 pts, only converted 1 3rd Dn while allowing PIT to convert 8 of 16. SEA has the location & schedule advantage here but have avg’d 15 ppg since Hasselbeck returned. PP gives NE a 379-294 yd edge & with Belichick being 10-0 SU & ATS away off a SU loss (no distractions) & a manageable line the Patriots are the play. 4★ PATRIOTS 27 SEAHAWKS 17


(STL #28 vs ARZ #10 ARZ #3 vs STL #29) ARZ has 3 extra days to lick their wounds after being blasted by PHI on Thanksgiving. While they are very 1 dimensional avg 43 ypg (2.5) rushing the L4W they are
more explosive in the passing game (#2), are solid in the trenches (#11 sacks allowed & by) & have a massive intangible edge as they could earn their 1st Div title since 1975 at home. STL is a different team with RB Jackson (94 yds 4.5 LW) available. PP gives ARZ a 463-266 yd edge but they haven’t been a fav this big in 30+ years which is a concern.
3.5★ CARDINALS 35 RAMS 16




(KC #25 vs DEN #28 DEN #2 vs KC #32) After being upset by OAK at home 2 Wks ago the Broncos go into NY & shut down the Jets with a 34-17 win. KC got their 2nd win of the season over a Raiders team
that blasted them in Wk 2. While PP calls for DEN to have a 471-360 yd edge here they are a horrible HF (3-15 ATS) & are notorious for playing down to their competition. No Play on the side as DEN is too inconsistent TY & CB Bly & DE Ekuban are unknown here but the Total is attractive here. NO PLAY: BRONCOS 33 CHIEFS 24
3★ BRONCOS/CHIEFS: OVER

CLE #27 vs TEN #5 TEN #17 vs CLE #26) CLE’s season is offi cially a disaster & they will start Ken Dorsey (2-8 SU 4-6 ATS w/ SF) who hasn’t taken a real snap in 3 years. TEN has all the edges except special teams
& will have 3 extra days to rest & game plan for that. PP gives TEN a 385-192 yd edge & RB’s Johnson & White could have another standout day vs CLE’s #26 rush def with a 4.4 ypc. The large line, however, keeps
this from being a larger play though.
3★ TITANS 24 BROWNS 6



(CIN #32 vs IND #15 IND #21 vs CIN #24) CIN has been devastated by injs TY & could only generate 6 FD’s & 155 yds vs BAL LW. IND struggled without Ctr Saturday vs CLE LW but CIN doesn’t have an impact player
on the DL like NT Rogers & could be without their top 3 DE’s here. PP gives IND a 351-261 yd edge & 18 pt win but the Colts have won 5 straight by 6 or less & with DD Fav’s being 5-14 ATS TY this is a small play.
1★ COLTS 28 BENGALS 10
 
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NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP 4* (7-3-2).... GREEN BAY


(4) Angle Plays 28-10 74% L/4Y!

(4) GREEN BAY
(3) KANSAS CITY
(3) ARIZONA
(3) NEW ENGLAND


PRO STAT PLAY: NEW ENGLAND


SYSTEM SELECTION ( System Play 10-4 )
Play the Over when a home team scored 20 or more points and lost by 20 or more points on the road last week.
2001-2008: 12-1-1 92%
THIS WEEK'S PLAY: Rams/Cardinals OVER



KEY SELECTIONS

4* ARIZONA over St Louis -
ARZ comes into this game with 3 days extra rest & the defense will be highly motivated after being thumped by PHI LW. ARZ let PHI score TD’s on 3 of their 1st 4 drives & was down 24-7 at the half being outFD 19-7 & outgained 219-105. ARZ is 1-7 ATS as a fav of 7+ & they have not been a fav this big over the L32 years. ARZ is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home after a SU loss under Whisenhunt. Warner has passed for 305 ypg (73%) with an 11-2 ratio (111.0 QBR) at home TY. STL is 0-5 ATS in div play. The 2005 SF team is widely regarded as the worst team in the NFL since the 1999 expansion Browns finishing 4-12 with the #32 & #32 units. They were outFD 21-12 & outgained 391-224 (-9 TO’s) with a 27-15 avg score. The 2008 Rams are almost as bad being outFD 21-14, outgained 382-266 (-9 TO’s) with a 30-13 avg score TY. STL did get a nice rebound LW by staying close vs MIA with the return of RB Jackson (94, 4.5). It’s tough to be confident in Bulger who is only avg 190 ypg (57%) with a 3-5 ratio & weak 6.2 ypa on the road. While this is a huge line (DD fav’s 5-14 ATS TY) ARZ can win its 1st Division Title since 1975 here & will have a rowdy crowd here. FORECAST: ARIZONA 41 St Louis 17

3* New England over SEATTLE - This game features two of the best minds in the NFL with Belichick vs Holmgren. NE has big statistical edges with the #2 & #12 units (-4 TO’s) the L4W vs SEA’s #29 & #32 units (-3 TO’s). NE is 15-5 ATS as an AF & 9-2-1 ATS away vs the NFC. SEA is 3-6 ATS as a HD. While SEA has seen its offensive production rise the L3W (196, 228, 322) under Hasselbeck they have dropped in points scored (20,17.9). The defense is really wearing down allowing an avg 430 ypg the L3W & the #31 pass defense with a 19-6 ratio gets a bad matchup vs Moss (58 rec, 13.5) & Welker (84 rec, 10.3). SEA will be the 2nd of 3 straight teams for NE that have 3 extra days rest & are catching NE off a physical game vs PIT. NE will be livid after losing at home to PIT as they were out muscled at the POA. They gave up 5 TO’s due to self inflicted mistakes & not overtly bad plays. SEA lacks the pass rush (#10) that PIT (#1), MIA (#8) & the Jets (#5) have as DE Kerney is on IR & half their sacks came vs SF. NE is 10-0 SU & ATS away after a SU loss since 2003 with a 402-298 yd edge & 32-17 avg score. LW’s results give great line value. With NE on the outside looking in & facing a lower level team the Patriots come up big here. FORECAST: New England 30 SEATTLE 14


2* SAN FRANCISCO (+) over NY Jets - SF is finally home after 2 long road trips to DAL & BUF. The Jets have good statistical edges with the #11 & #19 units (-1 TO’s) vs SF’s #26 & #23 units (-13 TO’s) & both teams have elite special teams units. SF is 2-6 ATS as a HD while the Jets are 10-6-1 ATS as an AF. This is a flat spot for the Jets who are off 2 big games vs NE & TEN, a tough loss vs DEN & have BUF on deck. This is SF’s only HG in a 5 week span. SF is off a bit of a misleading win vs BUF as they KO’d QB Edwards putting an unprepared Losman up against a promising front 7. SF was outgained 350-195 but held off BUF in their red zone (0-4). HD’s that won SU as an AD LW but scored 14 or less are 18-3 ATS. The Jets had their win streak (5 SU wins & 4 straight covers) broken getting outgained 484-383 vs DEN. While others may jump on them to rebound off a loss we look for a tight game with NYJ being in their 3rd road game in 4 weeks & having faltered twice in trips to the West Coast. The Jets lost & failed to cover to both SD (now 4-8 SU) & OAK (now 3-10 SU) & have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. SF knows they are playing for next year’s spots but they continue to play with enthusiasm under Singletary & are worth a play as the Ugly Dog here (23-12 66%). FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 23 (+) NY Jets 24

2* TENNESSEE over Cleveland - The Browns needed a Titans loss to IND in their season finale to back into the playoffs but the Colts rolled over & TEN slid into the #6 spot. CLE is 11-5-1 ATS as a non-div AD & 24-10 ATS under Crennel after a SU loss. TEN is 2-7 ATS as a non-div HF. TEN has the #13 & #2 units (+3 TO’s) vs CLE #23 & #30 units (+2 TO’s) the L4W. CLE’s had a very solid gameplan LW vs IND relying on an under used RB Lewis (77 yds 3.2 LW) to control the clock & keep the defense out of trouble. CLE held Manning to 125 yds (71%) with an 0-2 ratio but a fumble on a sack of Anderson that was returned 37 yds which was the difference. CLE lost TE Winslow (ankle) & QB Anderson (left MCL) & will likely be forced to start #3 QB Ken Dorsey who has a 2-8 SU & 4-6 ATS record with SF in limited starting duty avg 160 ypg (54%) with an 8-11 ratio. Dorsey hasn’t taken a reg season snap in 3 years & faces a TEN’s pass rush that is 5th in sacks by (34) & the #3 pass defense has an 8-17 ratio. TEN’s #5 rush attack (139 ypg 4.2) should have another solid effort vs a CLE defense that is giving up 141 yds rushing (4.4) TY. The Titans dominated every phase of the game LW vs DET & should make short work of a depleted CLE team that will be spent after an impressive defensive effort at home. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 Cleveland 3
 
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KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX

ERIK SCHEPONIK (THE MAXX) (5-7)...RAIDERS ( L )....
KEVIN O'NEILL (THE MAXX) (8-13)... GB....OVER DENVER
DAVE FOBARE (THE MAXX) (5-6).. CINCI
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (9-7)... GREEN BAY


NFL System from Dave Fobare,
When The Going Gets Tough The Tough Get Going: Play any team in the regular
season that is tied or leads their division yet is off consecutive losses.
Pointspread Record Since 1990: 71-49 (59.1%)
This week’s application: Arizona Cardinal

Road Chalk Bounceback: Play on any NFL road favorite that lost S/U at home in its
previous game.
Pointspread Record Since October, 2005: 33-17-1 (66%)
This week’s application: New York Jets, New England Patriots

NFL


Sunday, December 7th, 2008
Bengals (+14) over @Colts
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Yes the Bengals are awful, but the Colts hardly
deserve to be a two-touchdown favorite over
anybody, including the Bungles. After 11 games of
waiting the "real" Peyton Manning has yet to show
up on a consistent basis. Manning is still accurate,
completing 63.1% of passes versus a career average
of 64.1% completions. But the passes are shorter
and the yards after the catch are less, resulting in
an average of 6.63 yards per attempt, a full yard per
attempt lower than his career mark and the lowest
total since his 1998 rookie season. That decline is
why Manning's 2008 QB rating is 85.3 in a career
that has averaged a 94.0 rating. You might want to
explain why this season is an aberration, or perhaps
point to the aging Marvin Harrison as the culprit. But
while this season's drop seems extreme, it is
nonetheless a continuation of a trend that started in
2005. In 2004 when Manning managed a career
best 121.1 rating. In 2005 the rating declined to
104.1. In 2006 he dropped further still to 101.0. In
2007 the rating dropped to 98.0. The dropbacks are
just a bit slower, and the arm isn't quite as strong.
In short, Peyton Manning is getting old.
By no means am I arguing that the Bengals are
undervalued or better than their dismal 1-10-1
record. They have earned every bit of that mark. But
if a bettor is willing to be patient and wait for the
right spots bad teams can make you money. The
part about being patient is the key. Too many
bettors want to jump on bad teams when they flash
a decent effort. If you want to bet a bad team, it is
generally best to wait until they look REALLY bad.
And last week's 34-3 home loss to the Ravens and
their rookie QB Joe Flacco certainly qualifies.
Cincinnati applies to a 139-83 ATS bad underdog
scenario that is 5-3 this season, including covers on
Kansas City and St Louis last weekend. The other
strong tech I have here is a 25-55 ATS anti-big
favorite play that applies to the Colts and is 4-9
since I started following it a couple of years ago.
The Colts have won 8 games but 7 of those wins
were by 6 points or less. Good times win games but
great teams win games easily. Yet NFL bettors
continue to price the Colts as though they are still a
great team. All those close wins from a fair offensive team
have a tendency to cloud bettor's judgments, which is why
Indy is only 4-7-1 against the number. A piece of general
tech from my database might explain better the public
psychology in play: from Game 7 on NFL teams with a
winning record better than 0.600 that score better than 21
points per game but outscore their opponents by just zero
to 3 points per game are just 79-115 ATS since 1990. The
Bengals may be bad, but from a wagering perspective the
Colts are worse. Take the points. Indianapolis by 7


@Packers (-5½) over Texans
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
We went against the Packers at home last
week in this space but this week we’re going to
go with the Cheeseheads. The Packers lost to
the Panthers at home on Sunday, with some
questionable strategy by Coach Mike McCarthy
kicking a field goal with the ball on the oneyard
line in the late stages of a 28-28 game
when they were having trouble stopping the
Panthers. Perhaps the coach was spooked by
consecutive failures on 2nd and 1 and 3rd and 1,
but after a kickoff return to the 45-yard line,
the Panthers drove for the game winning TD.
Carolina was in a good spot in that one,
coming off a divisional loss that made their
lead in the standings a little more precarious.
But Carolina was outplayed by the Packers for
large stretches of that ballgame. Green Bay’s
field position issues, poor kick coverage, and
turnovers allowed the Panthers to engineer 5
TD drives of between 17 and 55 yards. Very
seldom will you see a team gain 300 total
yards yet score 5 TD’s. The Packers 438-300
yardage advantage and 26-16 edge in first
downs went for naught.
For the second straight week, Green Bay was
burned by big plays in the passing game. And
the Texans Andre Johnson is certainly a guy
who can get a big play. But the Texans are off
a home Monday night contest that is a
spotlight game for them. Is this warm
weather/indoor team, out of the playoff hunt, going
to come up with a big performance in December on
the road on the Frozen Tundra? Don’t expect that,
and particularly don’t expect it if the Texans are off
a Monday night win over the Jaguars (game yet to
go as we write this).
The Packers have had a disappointing season, but
they have enough solid young players that are
building for the future that we expect to have a solid
effort for them here. And after laying 3 against a
solid team in a bounce back spot they are now
laying not that much more against a non-contender
in a non-prime scheduling situation. They just need
to translate some of their success at the line of
scrimmage last week to the scoreboard. Expect
much greater efficiency than their defenses 8.5
yards per point allowed effort on Sunday, as against
teams ranked better than 27th in offense (aka not
Browns, Lions, or Bengals), Houston has allowed 28
points or more every time. Packers by 11.


Eagles (+9) over @Giants
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
After back-to-back embarrassing performances,
Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb put on a
show against Arizona on Thanksgiving night.
McNabb threw four touchdown passes and zero
interceptions while completing 69.2% of his
passes in Philadelphia’s 48-20 win. That’s like
night and day from his previous two games in
which he threw just one TD pass and five picks
while completing only 47.4% of his passes.
McNabb and head coach Andy Reid seem to
have moved on from their differences (winning
heals all), so there should be good focus this
week in practice. The Eagles are holding on to
slim playoff hopes, and this is a must have
game if they want to keep those hopes alive.
The Giants certainly look like the best team in the
NFL right now. They are on a 7-game win and
covering streak, but this looks like a decent spot to
play against the Giants. They return home after
playing three of their last four games on the road.
And one of those games was at Philadelphia. The
Giants were a 3-point underdog in that game and
escaped with a 36-31 win. But that was a referee
aided win. The refs blew two calls in the game that
allowed the Giants to score two touchdowns that
turned the whole game around. Aside from that,
New York did rack up a ton of yards on the ground
(219), but Eli Manning was unimpressive throwing
the ball. He was just 17-31 with 191 yards.
Manning has never been a good quarterback when
pressured, and Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jim
Johnson is the best at doing exactly that. Manning
has faced the Eagles eight times in his career. He’s
won six, but the wins have come by only 6.6 points
per game, which makes this line look a bit high.
These two are very familiar with each other’s
personnel. And that familiarity will make it hard for
the Giants to win this game by a significant margin.
Brian Westbrook is finally healthy, and that spells
trouble for the Giants. Westbrook has either scored,
topped 100 total yards, or done both in eight of nine
games against the Giants since 2003. On the other
hand, the guy who gives the Eagles fits most likely
will not be on the field. Plaxico Burress has done
the same as Westbrook in seven of eight games
against the Eagles. But considering the gun charges
he faces, he won’t be catching footballs on Sunday.
Over the last three years, the Eagles are 8-2 against
the spread as a road underdog. They also have
extra rest and prep time after playing last Thursday,
which makes them a very live dog here. Giants by
only 1.


Chiefs @Broncos over 48
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Stymied by injuries, and a midseason slump by Jay
Cutler, the Broncos are once again playing well,
especially offensively. The ultra-confident Cutler
(what’s this week’s pronouncement? Maybe “I’m a
better basketball player than Jordan ever was.”) has
once again been red hot the past couple of weeks,
and he truly may have the best arm in the league.
In the past four games he has averaged more than
8 yards per pass attempt three times, with all three
of those being road wins, including road victories at
playoff-bound Falcons and Jets. After burning
through their top four backs, the Broncos stuffed
fullback Peyton Hillis into a peg that didn’t seem to
fit, but Hillis ripped the Jets for 129 yards on 22
carries. And now he faces a Chiefs defense that has
allowed 20 rushing TD’s this year. That’s just one
element of the Chiefs defense that the Broncos will
be pleased to see. The Broncos haven’t been at their
best offensively at home in a while, but that is cured
this week with the arrival of the Chiefs defense.
Don’t let the fact that KC just held the Raiders to 13
points and 271 yards fool you, as the Raiders
offense is dreadful. The Chiefs gave up 28 points or
more in 6 of their previous 7 games. And now the
Broncos offense, brimming with confidence, gets to
face a much weaker stop unit than they’ve seen in
recent weeks. The Chiefs have a defensive injury
list that needs to be presented on a scroll. And the
players who are playing have little experience, as
the unit is loaded with rookies (the Chiefs have 17
rookies overall). They have zero pass rush (only 6
sacks through 12 games) and the Broncos onceagain
high-powered offense will be a rude
awakening for them after feasting on a feckless
Raiders attack.
In their last seven games, the Chiefs offense had
one horrifically sloppy game, giving up 5 turnovers
to the Bills. Other than that, KC has turned the ball
over only twice in that seven game stretch. A
second year no-name out of Coastal Carolina
(known for their baseball, not football), Tyler
Thigpen has shown significant potential. After
struggling in his first few games, Thigpen has an 11
TD/4 INT differential lately, while completing passes
as a higher percentage. He’s very mobile, and
rolling him out makes up for some of the problems
on the Chiefs offensive line. And he’s taking on a Broncos
D that has given up 30 or more in 6 of their 12 games this
season. So the Chiefs should be able to put some points
on the board themselves.
With these two defenses ranked 28th (Denver) and last
(Kansas City) in the NFL, and both in the lower quadrant of
most categories, don’t expect either unit to be able to
replicate their solid Sunday performances. Against these
lousy D’s both quarterbacks should get a lot done here.
Keep an eye on the weather, but if that’s not a factor, look
to the over in Denver.
 
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THE GOLDSHEET

THE GOLD SHEET (23-16)... MINNY...CAROLINA...OVER JETS
MINNESOTA by 24 over Detroit
CAROLINA by 16 over Tampa Bay (Monday night)
OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Jets-San Francisco game

Minnesota 37 - DETROIT 13—Lions’ last decent chance to notch a win
TY? Games at Indy, vs. N.O., and at G.B. follow. Too bad the Vikes are 12-1
SU the last 13 meetings. Maybe the commissioner will help by suspending
Minny’s “Williams Brothers” DTs and DE Jared Allen (11 sacks). But even that
might not be enough for Detroit, which is 0-6 vs. the spread at home TY and
must deal with Adrian Peterson (1131 YR) after giving up nearly 300 YR to the
Titans on Thanksgiving. Detroit “over” last five due to its overwhelmed defense
(only two ints. TY!).
(08-MINN. 12-Det. 10...M.18-8 M.31/135 D.24/100 M.18/33/1/257 D.12/21/0/112 M.2 D.1)
(07-DET. 20-Minn. 17 (OT)...D.29-17 M.33/123 D.21/56 D.35/56/3/359 M.20/37/4/190 D.2 M.1)
(07-MINN. 42-Det. 10...M.29-14 M.39/216 D.7/23 D.27/36/1/231 M.19/26/1/227 M.0 D.0)
(08-MINN. -13 12-10; 07-DETROIT -3 20-17 (OT), MINN. -4' 42-10...SR: Minnesota 62-30-2)

OVER THE TOTAL SAN FRANCISCO 28 - N.Y. Jets 26—Niners now
a respectable 2-3 SU & 3-2 vs. the spread under Mike Singletary, and the Jets’
defense was exposed a bit last week by the Broncs. That N.Y. unit can play
better, but Brett Favre not helping matters with his 14 interceptions. S.F.’s
secondary among the more experienced in the league. Will take note, however,
that 49ers are “over” 4 of the 5 games under Singletary; Jets “over” last six TY!
(04-NY JETS -10 22-14...SR: San Francisco 8-2)

*CAROLINA 26 - Tampa Bay 10—Must expect home-loving Carolina
(6-1-2 vs. spread last 9 in Charlotte) to run the ball much better in rematch after
being out-rushed 189-99 in first meeting in T.B. Oct. 12. RBs DeAngelo
Williams (955 YR) & Jonathan Stewart (586) should own the day on the ground
in this battle for NFC South supremacy, and Steve Smith is the top WR on the
field. DE Julius Peppers (11 sacks) is back to being a primetime intimidator,
and the Bucs’ wideouts are not too scary vs. Panthers’ experienced press
coverage. CABLE TV—ESPN
 
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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 4* (8-7)... CAROLINA
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 5* (9-7)... GREEN BAY




INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

The Chicago Bears are 0-14 SU and ATS
in Game Thirteen when their win percentage
is less than .700 on the season








5 BEST BET

GREEN BAY over Houston by 17

Now here’s a cold weather site we can sink our teeth into. There’s
nothing like the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to get the juices
fl owing. Much like Minnesota’s ‘must-win’ game against the Bears
last week, Green Bay fi ts the mold today. At 5-7 on the season, it’s
suddenly win or stay home time for the Packers. Enter Houston, fresh
off its climate-controlled Monday night division revenge win over
the Jaguars. With that we turn to our trusty database for just the
numbers that fi t this game like an abacus. It seems that since 1980
the Cheeseheads use their home environment to a major advantage
this time of the year where they are 33-6 SU and 25-13-1 ATS as home
favorites in December, including 18-4 ATS when hosting an opponent
off a win! They are also 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS at Vince’s place from
Game Ten out when playing off a SU favorite loss. Couple that with
the Texans’ 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS mark on the road off a win in their
history, including 0-5 SU and ATS against .500 or less opposition, and
you can understand our craving for extra cheese. As you please.



4 BEST BET
CAROLINA over Tampa Bay by 14
To say life at home is sweet for residents of the NFC South Division this
season would be an understatement. That’s confi rmed by a staggering
21-2 SU and 16-6-1 ATS mark in 2008, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in
division duke-outs. That sets the table for tonight’s play… that and
our ever reliable PROVE IT ALL NIGHT Monday Night theory from
Marc Lawrence. The Bucs have been hot since the insertion of QB Jeff
Garcia, for sure. But they are just 1-10 ATS in December with a .500 or
greater record when coming in off a division game. Couple that with
the Panthers’ 21-2 ATS mark at home in SU division victories in their
franchise history and we have the makings of another big play from
the Boss. As he says, “If you want it, you take it, you pay the price…”



3 BEST BET
Philadelphia over NY GIANTS by 3
It’s not easy building a case to fade the best team in the league but
we’re doing just that here with the Eagles today. After getting off
the .500 hump with an impressive win over the Cardinals Thanksgiving
evening (a 5* Playbook Best Bet), Andy Reid’s crew will look to avenge
a 36-31 home loss suffered a month ago. We’ve lauded Reid’s success in
division revenge on these pages. Simply put he’s in a class by himself in
these games, especially on the road where the Eagles are 10-4 SU and
12-2 ATS when avenging a division loss under Reid, including 7-0 SU
and ATS the last seven games! Tie that into the fact that teams riding a
7-game exact win streak who have covered the spread in each of their
last 3 games are just 2-10-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points and
just like that we have the makings of a live dog. No Big Blue here. Just
a nice and natural straight-up win for a hungry puppy. Eagles soar!




5* OVER HOUSTON / GB

4* UNDER INDY / CLEVE

3* UNDER BALTIMORE / WASH
 
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LOGICAL APPROACH

LOGICAL APPROACH SEL OF WEEK (8-3)... ARIZONA
LOGICAL APPROACH FEATURED SEL (17-17-1)..GREEN BAY...JETS...PITT

LOGICAL APPROACH TOTALS (24-34)... Oakland/San Diego UNDER 43 ...Cincinnati/Indianapolis UNDER 42 ½ ..Houston/Green Bay OVER 47 ...
Cleveland/Tennessee UNDER 37 ½.. ...Washington/Baltimore UNDER 36 ...N Y Jets/San Francisco UNDER 45

NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: ARIZONA - 13 ½ over St Louis - Despite a 7-5 record, Arizona clinches the NFC West with a win here. They are a perfect 4-0 in Divisional play, outscoring their Divisional foes by 42 points. The Rams played better last week in losing at home to Miami but scored just 12 points on 4 field goals. St Louis has scored more than 19 points just once this season while allowing 30 points per game. The hot start by Double Digit Dogs has slowed to 0-3 the past 3 weeks so there may be some comfort in backing the potent offense of the host. The Cardinals have several extra days of rest and have already soundly beaten better teams on this field this season - routing Miami by 21 and Buffalo by 24. They still have a chance to earn the NFC # 2 seed and a first round Playoff Bye so we should get a focused effort. The Rams played well for a three game stretch in mid season but have road losses by 35 and 24 points prior to that stretch and road losses by 44 and 19 since. They are playing out the string for a lame duck interim coach. Arizona wins 35-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
GREEN BAY - 6 over Houston - At 5-7 both teams seemingly are winding down disappointing seasons. Houston defeated Division rival Jacksonville Monday night in an emotional home game for the franchise. Green Bay has lost 4 of its last 5 games but still has a shot at winning the NFC North with a favorable schedule down the stretch. Once formidable Lambeau Field has not been a strong home field this season (3-3) although all three losses have to teams with winning records (25-11) contending for the Playoffs. When facing this level of competition, Green Bay has been explosive. The Packers have played the third toughest schedule to date (foes are 81-63 while Houston's foes are below .500). Packer QB Aaron Rodgers continues to assume a leadership role and the running game has improved in recent weeks. Houston has QB issues and had lost 5 in a row on the road prior to their 16-6 win at Cleveland 2 weeks ago. Any inclement weather should benefit Green Bay. Stepping down in class, the Pack gets back on track. Green Bay wins 31-20.
N Y Jets - 4 over SAN FRANCISCO - A look at the stats from last week's game and one must wonder how the 49ers defeated Buffalo and how the Bills managed just 3 points. Buffalo held a 350 to 195 total yards edge despite running just 11 more offensive plays. After their decisive win at Tennessee, a Jets' letdown last week was expected but an outright loss to Denver was not, although the Broncos had won their previous two road games in upset fashion. Look for things to return to form here as the Jets' offensive balance creates problems for the San Francisco defense while their own defense keeps the still emerging 49ers offense in check. Yes, the Jets have struggled on the West Coast this season, losing at Oakland and San Diego, but they have also now won 3 straight on the road - all against contending teams - and routed the other 2 NFC West teams they've faced thus far - Arizona and St Louis - although both wins were at home. The 49ers are 2-4 at home but the pair of wins have come against lowly Detroit and St Louis. There is a huge talent gap and the Jets are playing well enough to back for a solid win. New York Jets wins 24-13.

PITTSBURGH - 3 over Dallas - This is a key game for both teams, especially Dallas, as each is involved in tight races to make the post season. Pittsburgh is arguably better than its 9-3 record. Their top ranked defense has yet to allow an opponent to gain 300 yards in a game all season. The Steelers have dealt with and overcome injuries from early this season while the Cowboys continue to be plagued with the latest banged up 'Boys being key defender DeMarcus Ware and starting RB Marion Barber. Dallas is rested but steps way up in class after facing -- and easily defeating -- San Francisco and Seattle. They have struggled against physical teams and few are more physical than the Steelers. Dallas is also in an unfavorable scheduling spot after a pair of home games and two more on deck. A look at games against common foes shows that overall Pittsburgh has performed much better. Yes, Dallas had several games without QB Tony Romo but the Steelers have also played much of the season without their top 2 RBs. Pittsburgh's defense sets the tempo. Their consistently outstanding play cannot be ignored. Pittsburgh wins 24-16.


Best of the NFL Totals

Oakland/San Diego UNDER 43
Cincinnati/Indianapolis UNDER 42 ½
Houston/Green Bay OVER 47
Cleveland/Tennessee UNDER 37 ½
Washington/Baltimore UNDER 36
N Y Jets/San Francisco UNDER 45
 
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RED SHEET ONLINE

New England 33 - SEATTLE 17 - (4:05) -- Line opened at NewEngland minus 4½, and is still minus 4½.
That's right, as per usual, we're jumping on the Pats off a loss. Thus far, that simple system
has paid off 4 times this season, by 6, 31, 6½, & 21 pts. So why not again, vs a team which
cannot wait for this cursed season to draw to a close? A week ago, it all went wrong for the
Patriots, with 5 turnovers vs the best defense in the NFL (Pittsburgh), with 5 turnovers (4 by
QB Cassel, who had heretofore been a model of efficiency. No repeat vs Seattle's 28th
ranked "D". And no scoreboard match, with the NFL's 31st ranked "O".
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88



NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Philadelphia 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NewYork minus 8, and is still minus 8.
Not about to wind up the Red Sheet season without the defending champions, who have
been simply magnificent in continuing '07's brilliant late stretch. Sure, they have to go it
without Burress, which has to aid the defensive preparation of the always tough Eagles, but
NY just finds the way to succeed. Averaging 30-13 ppg edge at home, & on a 15-2 spread
run. Philly Thanksgiving Day rout of Arizona, just gives us added value.
RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88




NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Arizona, New Orleans, Jets, Carolina
 
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Vegas experts the edge ( 13-5 run )
vegas experts the edge 3* (18-9) ... Philly...denver...wash
but 0-3 last sunday *careful*


3* philadelphia
3* denver
3* washington
 

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