Point Train 7-Unit Total - OVER 45.5 New Orleans vs. Cincy
7-Unit
OVER 45.5
New Orleans vs. Cincinnati
Sunday, December 5 – 12:00 PM CST
Drew Brees should be able to take advantage of this depleted Cincy secondary. New Orleans has the third best passing offense in the NFL, averaging 291yards per game and Brees is completing 69% with 23 touchdowns. Cincy has allowed 231 passing yards per game (63%) and 10 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in the past six weeks and has given up an average of 31 points per game. New Orleans is averaging 28 points per game on the road and we expect another high scoring game from this offense.
New Orleans is seventh in the NFL in total defense and sixth in scoring defense. Those numbers are a bit skewed as New Orleans beat up on hapless Carolina twice and had two other good defensive performances against mediocre Minnesota and overrated Tampa Bay (244 yards per game and 8 points per game in the four matchups). We expect that New Orleans will be able to build a big lead and that Cincy will have to pass a lot and extend the game.
The Saints are averaging 28 points per game on the road and we project that they’ll score around 31-35 here while the Bengals should keep it close – scoring in the twenties. Go with the OVER in this matchup.
7-Unit
OVER 45.5
New Orleans vs. Cincinnati
Sunday, December 5 – 12:00 PM CST
Drew Brees should be able to take advantage of this depleted Cincy secondary. New Orleans has the third best passing offense in the NFL, averaging 291yards per game and Brees is completing 69% with 23 touchdowns. Cincy has allowed 231 passing yards per game (63%) and 10 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in the past six weeks and has given up an average of 31 points per game. New Orleans is averaging 28 points per game on the road and we expect another high scoring game from this offense.
New Orleans is seventh in the NFL in total defense and sixth in scoring defense. Those numbers are a bit skewed as New Orleans beat up on hapless Carolina twice and had two other good defensive performances against mediocre Minnesota and overrated Tampa Bay (244 yards per game and 8 points per game in the four matchups). We expect that New Orleans will be able to build a big lead and that Cincy will have to pass a lot and extend the game.
The Saints are averaging 28 points per game on the road and we project that they’ll score around 31-35 here while the Bengals should keep it close – scoring in the twenties. Go with the OVER in this matchup.
jeff benton
SUNDAY'S ACTION
60 Dime NFL release on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS minus the points at Cincinnati in early action on Sunday. The Saints are a 6½-point favorite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. I would recomaend you get your wager in ASAP as this number is steaming toward 7 and we absoolutely want to keep this spread under the full touchdown if at all possible.
20 Dime NFL release on the ST. LOUIS RAMS minus the points at Arizona in afternoon action on Sunday. St. Louis is a 3½-point favorite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. This is another pointspread that I exeect to go up as the day goes along, so get your wager in ASAP on this one, too.
SAINTS
The ONLY thing that kept me from raising my rating in this game was New Orleans’ second-half collapse at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day (the Saints jumped out to a 17-0 lead then gave up 27 of the next 33 points and needed a miracle rally to escape with a 30-27 victory, failing to cover as a 5½-point favorite). Clearly, the Saints went to the locker room thinking they had that game won, and their complacency nearly cost them.
Well, you can be sure leaders like coach Sean Payton, QB Drew Brees and veteran linebacker Jonathan Vilma lit into the team after the effort against the Cowboys and you can expect a much more focused, four-quarter effort from the defending champs today. First of all, New Orleans comes in rested after a 10-day layoff and riding a four-game winning streak (cashing in the first three before coming up just short against the Cowboys). And the Saints offense is once again humming, producing 20, 34, 34 and 30 points the last three weeks.
True, the Bengals also have been off for 10 days, having played at the Jets hours after the Saints beat Dallas on Turkey Day. But I highly doubt the extra rest did anything for Cincinnati but remind the players what a lost season this has been. After falling 26-10 to the Jets – they had a 7-3 halftime lead but got outscored 23-3 and outgained 141-34 in the final 30 minutes – the Bengals have now dropped eight in a row (the longest current slide in the NFL). And depending on how you grade a 27-21 loss to the Steelers a month ago, Cincy is either 1-7 ATS or 1-6-1 ATS over this stretch.
The Bengals have issues all over the place, but the one area I want to focus on is defense. During the eight-game losing streak, Cincinnati has allowed an average of 29 points per game, and for the season the Bengals have allowed nine of 11 opponents to rush for more than 100 yards and the D line has registered a paltry 12 sacks. Well, it’s not exactly a secret that if you A) don’t pressure Brees, and/or B) allow the Saints running game to get going to open up the passing attach, you’re royally screwed!
While Cincinnati has struggled defensively, the Saints have been outstanding on that side of ball all season (the 27-point effort at Dallas notwithstanding). They’ve allowed just 17.9 points, 306.7 total yards and 197.8 passing yards per game, figures that rank sixth, seventh and third in the NFL. The secondary has as many INTs as TD passes allowed (7), and now is facing a rattled Carson Palmer, who now has a 19-to-15 TD-to-INT ratio and whose QB ratings the last five games are as follows: 63.0, 88.7, 78.7, 71.9 and (last week vs. the Jets) 41.0.
Bottom line: Not only are both these teams headed in opposite directions, but the Saints have matchup advantages all over the field. And if New Orleans jumps on top early, I fully expect the Bengals (four straight home losses) to go into full-fledged turtle mode, the fans to head for the exits early and New Orleans – looking to make amends for last week’s second-half effort at Dallas – to keep pouring it on.
Saints roll 38-14.
RAMS
One thing you always have to guard against each and every week when handicapping the NFL is not to overreact to what you saw the previous week – it’s a HUGE mistake that novice bettors make all the time, and it’s why Vegas has so many sparkling five-star resorts on the Strip.
That said, um, how can ANYONE trust the Cardinals in any spot right now? With Monday’s embarrassing 27-6 loss to the 49ers (an average-at-best team that lost its best player – RB Frank Gore – on the first series of the game and yet still outrushed Arizona 261-13), the Cardinals have dropped six games in a row. And since opening the season with a very shaky 17-13 win at St. Louis (rookie Sam Bradford’s first NFL start), Arizona is 2-8 SU and ATS, including three straight home losses to the Bucs, Seahawks and Niners by a combined score of 101-59.
The Rams improved to 5-6 on the season with last Sunday’s 36-33 upset win at Denver as a three-point underdog, the team’s first road win of the season. St. Louis has been dominated just twice all season (34-17 home loss to Atlanta, one of the best teams in the league; 44-6 Murphy’s Law loss at Detroit, where everything went wrong). Take those two games out of the equation, and the Rams are 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS (with four losses by a combined 10 points).
Back to Arizona. Sometimes the numbers lie, but in this case they don’t. Get this: The Cardinals are getting outscored by an average of 11.4 ppg (29-17.6), outgained by an average of 126.7 ypg (395.8-269.1) and outrushed by an average of 68.5 ypg (146.5-78). In fact, the Cards rank 31st out of 32 NFL teams in both rushing offense and rushing defense.
Simply put, for the last several years, the Rams were NFC West’s doormat while the Cardinals were riding high (thanks to the presence of future Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner, who ironically will be in the booth doing this game). Now, the roles have completely reversed as St. Louis is on the come and the Cardinals are arguably the second-worst team in the league (only Carolina is keeping them from the basement).
After losing seven straight to the Cardinals – including three straight in Arizona by scores of 31-10, 34-10 and 48-19 – the Rams regain control of this rivalry with a dominating win (their first back-to-back road victories for the first time since November 2007.
SUNDAY'S ACTION
60 Dime NFL release on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS minus the points at Cincinnati in early action on Sunday. The Saints are a 6½-point favorite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. I would recomaend you get your wager in ASAP as this number is steaming toward 7 and we absoolutely want to keep this spread under the full touchdown if at all possible.
20 Dime NFL release on the ST. LOUIS RAMS minus the points at Arizona in afternoon action on Sunday. St. Louis is a 3½-point favorite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. This is another pointspread that I exeect to go up as the day goes along, so get your wager in ASAP on this one, too.
SAINTS
The ONLY thing that kept me from raising my rating in this game was New Orleans’ second-half collapse at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day (the Saints jumped out to a 17-0 lead then gave up 27 of the next 33 points and needed a miracle rally to escape with a 30-27 victory, failing to cover as a 5½-point favorite). Clearly, the Saints went to the locker room thinking they had that game won, and their complacency nearly cost them.
Well, you can be sure leaders like coach Sean Payton, QB Drew Brees and veteran linebacker Jonathan Vilma lit into the team after the effort against the Cowboys and you can expect a much more focused, four-quarter effort from the defending champs today. First of all, New Orleans comes in rested after a 10-day layoff and riding a four-game winning streak (cashing in the first three before coming up just short against the Cowboys). And the Saints offense is once again humming, producing 20, 34, 34 and 30 points the last three weeks.
True, the Bengals also have been off for 10 days, having played at the Jets hours after the Saints beat Dallas on Turkey Day. But I highly doubt the extra rest did anything for Cincinnati but remind the players what a lost season this has been. After falling 26-10 to the Jets – they had a 7-3 halftime lead but got outscored 23-3 and outgained 141-34 in the final 30 minutes – the Bengals have now dropped eight in a row (the longest current slide in the NFL). And depending on how you grade a 27-21 loss to the Steelers a month ago, Cincy is either 1-7 ATS or 1-6-1 ATS over this stretch.
The Bengals have issues all over the place, but the one area I want to focus on is defense. During the eight-game losing streak, Cincinnati has allowed an average of 29 points per game, and for the season the Bengals have allowed nine of 11 opponents to rush for more than 100 yards and the D line has registered a paltry 12 sacks. Well, it’s not exactly a secret that if you A) don’t pressure Brees, and/or B) allow the Saints running game to get going to open up the passing attach, you’re royally screwed!
While Cincinnati has struggled defensively, the Saints have been outstanding on that side of ball all season (the 27-point effort at Dallas notwithstanding). They’ve allowed just 17.9 points, 306.7 total yards and 197.8 passing yards per game, figures that rank sixth, seventh and third in the NFL. The secondary has as many INTs as TD passes allowed (7), and now is facing a rattled Carson Palmer, who now has a 19-to-15 TD-to-INT ratio and whose QB ratings the last five games are as follows: 63.0, 88.7, 78.7, 71.9 and (last week vs. the Jets) 41.0.
Bottom line: Not only are both these teams headed in opposite directions, but the Saints have matchup advantages all over the field. And if New Orleans jumps on top early, I fully expect the Bengals (four straight home losses) to go into full-fledged turtle mode, the fans to head for the exits early and New Orleans – looking to make amends for last week’s second-half effort at Dallas – to keep pouring it on.
Saints roll 38-14.
RAMS
One thing you always have to guard against each and every week when handicapping the NFL is not to overreact to what you saw the previous week – it’s a HUGE mistake that novice bettors make all the time, and it’s why Vegas has so many sparkling five-star resorts on the Strip.
That said, um, how can ANYONE trust the Cardinals in any spot right now? With Monday’s embarrassing 27-6 loss to the 49ers (an average-at-best team that lost its best player – RB Frank Gore – on the first series of the game and yet still outrushed Arizona 261-13), the Cardinals have dropped six games in a row. And since opening the season with a very shaky 17-13 win at St. Louis (rookie Sam Bradford’s first NFL start), Arizona is 2-8 SU and ATS, including three straight home losses to the Bucs, Seahawks and Niners by a combined score of 101-59.
The Rams improved to 5-6 on the season with last Sunday’s 36-33 upset win at Denver as a three-point underdog, the team’s first road win of the season. St. Louis has been dominated just twice all season (34-17 home loss to Atlanta, one of the best teams in the league; 44-6 Murphy’s Law loss at Detroit, where everything went wrong). Take those two games out of the equation, and the Rams are 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS (with four losses by a combined 10 points).
Back to Arizona. Sometimes the numbers lie, but in this case they don’t. Get this: The Cardinals are getting outscored by an average of 11.4 ppg (29-17.6), outgained by an average of 126.7 ypg (395.8-269.1) and outrushed by an average of 68.5 ypg (146.5-78). In fact, the Cards rank 31st out of 32 NFL teams in both rushing offense and rushing defense.
Simply put, for the last several years, the Rams were NFC West’s doormat while the Cardinals were riding high (thanks to the presence of future Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner, who ironically will be in the booth doing this game). Now, the roles have completely reversed as St. Louis is on the come and the Cardinals are arguably the second-worst team in the league (only Carolina is keeping them from the basement).
After losing seven straight to the Cardinals – including three straight in Arizona by scores of 31-10, 34-10 and 48-19 – the Rams regain control of this rivalry with a dominating win (their first back-to-back road victories for the first time since November 2007.
Free ATS E-Mail Pick
FREE Pro Football Selection For Sunday, Dec. 5th: Kansas City -8 over Denver, 1pmET
Emotions could be running high when the Denver Broncos visit the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday in a pivotal division matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.
It was just three weeks ago that the Broncos walloped the Chiefs, 49-29, in Denver. Following the contest, Kansas City head coach Todd Haley refused to shake the hand of the Broncos' Josh McDaniels and pointed a finger at him, remarking that he felt that Denver had tried to run up the score.
With the Chargers on tap next week, this could have been the classic trap game for a Chiefs team that a lot of people still don't believe in. Luckily they are facing the one team that Haley will not allow to overlook in the underachieving Broncos. Cassel-to-Bowe is becoming a very dangerous tandem, but the load this week figures to be carried by Charles and Jones as they go up against a very porous Denver front seven. Things just seem to be spiraling out of control for McDaniels, whose job security will once again be called into question this coming week.
ATS Consultants Predicted Outcome:
Kansas City 34 - Denver 21
FREE Pro Football Selection For Sunday, Dec. 5th: Kansas City -8 over Denver, 1pmET
Emotions could be running high when the Denver Broncos visit the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday in a pivotal division matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.
It was just three weeks ago that the Broncos walloped the Chiefs, 49-29, in Denver. Following the contest, Kansas City head coach Todd Haley refused to shake the hand of the Broncos' Josh McDaniels and pointed a finger at him, remarking that he felt that Denver had tried to run up the score.
With the Chargers on tap next week, this could have been the classic trap game for a Chiefs team that a lot of people still don't believe in. Luckily they are facing the one team that Haley will not allow to overlook in the underachieving Broncos. Cassel-to-Bowe is becoming a very dangerous tandem, but the load this week figures to be carried by Charles and Jones as they go up against a very porous Denver front seven. Things just seem to be spiraling out of control for McDaniels, whose job security will once again be called into question this coming week.
ATS Consultants Predicted Outcome:
Kansas City 34 - Denver 21
GC Sunday System Club Play
On Sunday the System Club Play is on the Under in the San Francisco at Green Bay game. Rotation numbers 353/354 at 1:00 eastern. This game fits a totals system that has cashed 12 of 14 times since 1989. What we want to do is play the under for home favorites of 3 or more if they scored 21 or less as a road dog or fav of 3 or less vs an opponent that scored 21 or more as a road favorite in their last game. The Niners come in off a solid win with a great defensive effort on Monday night vs Arizona. Today they will be without top running back F. Gore. B. Westbrook played well in his absence. However things will get tougher here against a staunch Green Bay defense. Look for this game to go under the 41 point total. On Sunday I have the highest rated Sunday night game of the season with huge Power system and a 90% Angle. I also have 2 Big Dominator plays from the same 22-4 system with a 100% Subset. NBA West Conf. Total of the Month with 20-1 Power System. Football combined is a documented 30 games over .500 on the season. For the free system club Play take the Under in the Niners at Packers game. GC
On Sunday the System Club Play is on the Under in the San Francisco at Green Bay game. Rotation numbers 353/354 at 1:00 eastern. This game fits a totals system that has cashed 12 of 14 times since 1989. What we want to do is play the under for home favorites of 3 or more if they scored 21 or less as a road dog or fav of 3 or less vs an opponent that scored 21 or more as a road favorite in their last game. The Niners come in off a solid win with a great defensive effort on Monday night vs Arizona. Today they will be without top running back F. Gore. B. Westbrook played well in his absence. However things will get tougher here against a staunch Green Bay defense. Look for this game to go under the 41 point total. On Sunday I have the highest rated Sunday night game of the season with huge Power system and a 90% Angle. I also have 2 Big Dominator plays from the same 22-4 system with a 100% Subset. NBA West Conf. Total of the Month with 20-1 Power System. Football combined is a documented 30 games over .500 on the season. For the free system club Play take the Under in the Niners at Packers game. GC
