Wunderdog
3 Units Cincinnati +6.5
The New Orleans Saints have made their move and have improved to 8-3 on the season winning four straight games. The stuffed suits on TV are now talking about them going to the Super Bowl. They have certainly been playing better football, but against whom? Last week they beat the Cowboys, but failed to cover the spread. The Cowboys racked up over 450 yards of offense in that game and under Sean Payton, the Saints are just 6-15 ATS after giving up 400+ yards. Prior to that game, the Saints played games against the likes of Seattle, Carolina twice, Cleveland and Arizona. This team has played a very weak schedule (bottom five in the league). It's not a suprise that it's been a tough chore for them as the Super Bowl winner. Teams that win the Superbowl the previous year are 32-67 ATS on the road as a favorite the following year with everyone gunning for them. The Saints are 2-3 ATS this year in the defender role on the road. Bengals have lost eight straight and their season is long gone, but they have one more game with a lot of meaning left and that is this one. With the pressure off, they get a shot to take down the Super Bowl champion, so I expect their "A" game for this one. Speaking of "A" games, the Saints have not brought theirs vs. teams with a losing record where they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight. The Bengals make for lousy favorites, but they rule the roost as a home dog where they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven. One more hurrah for the Bengals. I will grab the points and Cincinnati here.
3 Units San Francisco / Green Bay Over 40.5
The Packers offense is explosive, with a lot of playmakers including a QB that is becoming part of the running game, making them even tougher to defend. This offense is nearly impossible to stop at home. Let's consider the equivalent a season of home games equaling eight games. The last eight games at Lambeau, the Packers have scored 260 points or 32.5 ppg. Needless to say, playing to a total just north of 40 is quite lucrative. It also should be pointed out the Niners got 24 here last season and have gone for 20+ in four of their last five games. The Niners have followed a game where they played on Monday Night with a 12-4 mark to the OVER in their last 16, while the Packers are 51-25-2 to the OVER in their last 78 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Pack are also 33-18 OVER following back-to-back UNDERs. Under Mike McCarthy, this tema is 18-9 OVER following a loss and 12-4 OVER at home when the total is between 36 and 42 points. Take the OVER in this one.
3 Units Jacksonville +3.5
The Titans have struggled with Rusty Smith as quarterback. It looks like the Titans will have Kerry Collins back under center for this game, but his six yards per attempt is still a downgrade from Young's eight yards per attempt. And, he doesn't run with the ball either. No matter who's taking the snaps here, the Titans have shown they just don't have a super team this year. They are 2-3 at home and they have been getting worse. The yards aren't coming as easy for Chris Johnson this season and his 4.4 yards a carry are way off from the 5.6 a year ago, putting extra pressure on their QBs. The Jaguars are playing much better football this year and, under coach Jack Del Rio, they are 12-4 ATS on the road revenging a loss. In games where the Jags lost the first matchup, allowing 28+ points, that goes to 7-0 ATS. Jacksonville has it going right now and are 4-0 ATS in their last four and the Titans are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. Del Rio is at his best late in the season as his Jags are 21-10 ATS in weeks 10-13. I like the Jags and the points here.
4 Units on Detroit +4.5
The Chicago Bears are a certainly a pleasant surprise sitting atop the NFC North with an 8-3 mark. But, the Detroit Lions are also a surprise at 7-4 ATS for the season. The Lions imploded once again on Thanksgiving, but have more than held their own at home this season losing by just 3 points to Philadelphia, by 3 to the Jets in overtime and beating the Rams and Redskins by a combined 50 points. This is certainly a team that has proven to be a tough out at home, where they are 4-1 ATS on the year. The Bears, off a big win at home to Philly, could be hibernating this week. They host New England next week, and might find themselves in a Lion's sandwich here. The Bears tend to fall asleep after allowing 250+ in the air in their previous game, where they are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 such games. The Lions bounce back big time after a double-digit home loss at 5-0 ATS in their last five. The Dog has barked loud in this series at 16-7 ATS in the last 23. Finally, the Lions are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a home blowout loss by 21+ points. They have had a week and a half to prepare and should be ready to make ammends. I like Detroit here, even with Drew Stanton under center.
3 Units Denver +9.5
4 Units Denver / Kansas City Under 48.5
No one wants to touch the 3-8 Broncos after what has gone down the past few weeks. The Broncos handed St. Louis a very rare road win last week, they have Spygate 2 looming, and the fans are calling for the head of Josh McDaniels who has gone 5-16 in his last 21 games. I'm going the other way and backing Denver here. The Denver Broncos most successful game this season was against the Chiefs where they won 49-29. Kyle Orton carved up the Chiefs secondary for four TD passes in that game. Denver has a premier passing game and if they can get one early and force the Chiefs out of their comfort zone, which is running the ball, this one could get interesting. The Chiefs seem to thrive as an underdog where they are 4-1 ATS. But, in the favorite role they are just 2-4 ATS in their last six and this is really stretching it out. The Chiefs have not been a 9.5 point favorite or more since 2005 and overall in their last 13 as a favorite they are just 3-9-1 ATS. The Chiefs are improved for sure. But, they aren't ready for this kind of number yet. I like the Broncos plus the points. I also like the UNDER in this game. Kansas City has failed to reach a level of consistency. After scoring 30 points or more the offense tends to suffer in the next game and as a result they are 9-1 to the UNDER in their last ten after scoring 30. Denver has been right with them on that accord as the Broncos have now gone 5-1 to the UNDER after scoring 30+ in their last game. I like Denver and the UNDER in this one.
4 Units Carolina +5.5
Carolina has scored 52 points the last three weeks. That's saying a lot considering it took them the previous seven weeks to score 70. The offense is getting healthier and as a result is improving. They took Cleveland to the wire last week before losing by a single point so they can certainly stay in this one vs. a Seattle team that has really struggled of late. The Seahawks are a mess and have no reason to be favored in this one by nearly a touchdown. This is a team that has lost in consecutive weeks by 18 and 15 points, as well as losing four of their last five by a combined 97 points. They also have a pair of 17 point losses prior to that which makes this hardly a team you'd feel comfortable with laying nearly a TD. The Panthers have always finished strong under John Fox, going 23-11 ATS in December games. They are also 32-20 ATS under Fox as a road dog. The Seahawks are now 3-10 ATS after allowing 350+ yards in their last game. They are also 15-29 ATS in their last 44 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. They are also 1-10 ATS the past two seasons following a home game. I like Carolina to find a way to stay close here.
4 Units Tampa Bay +3
The Atlanta Falcons record says 9-2 and that is the best in the NFC. Do I think they are the best team in the NFC? They may be, but the jury is certainly still out. The Falcons continue to grade out negatively on a net offsense/defense basis as they average fewer yards per play on offense than the defenses allows. That they have played well below average on defense is not typical of a 9-2 team. This team is allowing around 6.0 yards per play, placing them among the worst teams in the NFL in that category. Only Washington, Houston and Jacksonville are worse! Their pass defense is especially bad, allowing 68% completions (31st in the league) and 7.3 yards per pass. Come playoff time, this could really bite them. Josh Freeman is a capable quarterback that can exploit this weakness. The Bucs get the Falcons off a big game at home vs. Green Bay and as a result, Atlanta may not be at their best here. The Buccaneers are now 5-0 ATS in their last five games, and they can make a believer out of a lot of people with a signature win here vs. a 9-2 team. The Falcons are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 following three straight ATS wins. Tampa Bay has gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven with the Falcons and I like and I like them here. You can get TB at +3 (-125) or +2.5 -110. Grab the extra point if you can, but I like it either way.
4 Units Dallas / Indianapolis Under 48
It is becoming apparent that Peyton Manning is getting frustrated. His receiving corp has been beset by injuries and the Colts running game has been grounded. The "master" has looked quite pedestrian this year having thrown seven INT's in his last two games and the Colts offense has gone nine games without scoring more than 30 points. Let's put that into perspective. Going back to the 2003-04 season (covering 123 games), the Colts have not gone more than four games without topping the 30 mark. The significance here is they are still playing to high posted totals and this one is more reflective of the past than what is happening on the field now. This Indy offense in its prime went 50-20 to the UNDER in their last 50 games posted at 47.5 or higher. Now they are not nearly as good, so the value is clearly on the UNDER here. After giving up 36 points last game, you can bet the Colts defense will be out to prove something here. The same goes for Dallas' defense that allowed 30 last week. The COlts are 12-3 UNDER the past three seasons following a game in which 50+ points were scored. I think this one is going the same way - UNDER.
5 Units Arizona +3.5
I will buy into the fact that St. Louis is an improved team. I also agree that Arizona is no where near the same team without Kurt Warner lining up under center. Arizona has been downright awful this season and we faded them to success last Monday night. But that was last week. What I won't buy into, however, that St. Louis is suddenly a TD better than Arizona on a neutral field (what this 3.5 line for the road team is telling us). Let's examine the facts. St. Louis is 1-4 on the road this season, making them 3-20 on the road in their last 23 games. One of those wins came by 3 points vs. Denver, who is 1-6 in their last seven games. Last year they beat Detroit by a TD - a team that went 1-15. And, their third win was vs. Washington by 2 points. That means they cover this game one time in their last 23 on the road. Arizona is bad but they can hold their own against a team like St. Louis. At home, the Cards are respectable, having out scored their foes on average 23-19. The Rams meanwhile are getting outscored on the road by 6 points per game. St. Louis is just 4-13 ATS in the division in their last 17 and the Cards are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3.5-10 in their last six. People are overreacting to St. Louis' win last week, expecting them to go from 2-20 on the road to producing back-to-back road wins. They are also overreacting to what they saw on Monday night from Arizona. I expect the Cards to show some pride and show up for this game. Classic contrarian play here on the ugly home dog.
