SPORTS WAGERS-RANDALL THE HANDLE
Denver +9½ over KANSAS CITY
No doubt the Chiefs will want to avenge a 49-29 loss in Denver just three weeks ago. Thing is, the revenge angle is about as useless an angle as the “must win” angle. What we do know is that the Chiefs are not good enough to warrant being a 9½-point choice over a dangerous Bronco offense. After that loss the Chiefs subsequently won its next two games but so what. They beat the two worst teams in the league in Arizona and Seattle and scored 74 points in the process. That output and two consecutive wins has them way overvalued in this contest. The Broncos are garbage but let’s not ignore the fact that they can score points with the best of them and that Kyle Orton is second only to Philip Rivers this season in passing yards. Also note that NFL players are fully aware of the point spread and frankly, this line is a complete and utter insult to every player on Denver. They’ll use it, among other things as a motivating tool and again, the Chiefs really aren’t much better than the Broncos if it all. K.C.’s wins have come against San Diego in week one when they were clearly outplayed followed by victories against Cleveland, San Fran, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Arizona and Seattle. This is a lousy 7-4 team but its winning record provides a glorious opportunity to take back significant points. Upset possibility. Play: Denver +9½ (Risking 2.2 units).
Buffalo +5½ over MINNESOTA
Give us the winner in the turnover department and nine times out of 10 we’ll give you the winner of the game. Knowing that Brett Favre is going to throw at least one pick and probably three, we’ll take our chances with a spirited Bills squad that’s on the verge of something good. In fact, Buffalo has been pure gold all season in terms of covering the points and there’s nothing that suggests that’s about to change. This guest works hard and they’ve been so damn close (and very unlucky) week after week after week. In fact, the Bills last four losses have all been by a FG and it came against the Steelers, Chicago, Kansas City and Baltimore. All four of those could have just as easily resulted in a Bills win and they could be 6-5 instead of 2-9. Surely the Bills are not taking a step up in class when facing these uninterested and uninspired Vikes. Minnesota is done for the year but they have games on deck against the Giants next week and the Bears on Monday night the following week and that’s a lot more appealing to them then a game against the Bills. Adrian Peterson is not 100% and may not even go because of a high ankle sprain suffered last week in Washington. Regardless of whether Peterson goes or not, spotting points with this drama-filled club is not a good idea. Taking points with the Bills has been a profitable idea all season long and that’s unlikely to change here. Play: Buffalo +5½ (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
TAMPA BAY + 1.30 over Atlanta
The Falcons had a huge win over the Pack last week and that win, along with its eight others and five in a row, has the Dirty Birds stock way up. Remember, buy low and sell high and that’s the case here with Atlanta. This team has absolutely lived a charmed life on the road but the scores really don’t reflect that. In its most recent game in St. Louis the Falcons won 34-17, a deceiving score indeed, as the Rams were down 23-17 and going in for the lead in the fourth when they turned it over and the Falcons scored 11 unanswered the make the score look like an easy win when in fact, Atlanta got very lucky on more than just that play. Prior to that they were smoked in Philly and in Cleveland the week before they were extremely fortunate to win, yet alone win it by a score of 20-10. The Falcons résumé looks very appealing on paper but in no way are they as good as its 9-2 record suggests. Meanwhile, the Bucs have played four of its last five on the road including last week’s 17-10 loss in Baltimore. Its defense shutout the 49ers the week before and that defense has been getting stronger with each passing week. About a month ago the Bucs went into Atlanta and lost 27-21. Atlanta got lucky again when the Bucs couldn’t score with about a minute to go with first and goal on the Falcons two-yard. The Falcons also got lucky last week when Aaron Rogers fumbled in the end zone. This Falcons team is just about out of good fortune, as at least two thirds of their wins have come as the result of a lucky bounce or some other bizarre play and frankly, it just cannot last much longer. Sell high my friends. Play: Tampa Bay +1.30 (Risking 2 units).