Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Dallas -6.5
We were on the Cowboys in their win over the Saints, and for a number of different reasons I believe they'll do just enough to come away with the ATS victory in this one:
If they Cowboys don't finish strong, they'll most likely be out of the playoff picture.
"I think he is playing at a real high level," Cowboys coach Wade Phillips said of Ton Romo. "He's played really well. We lost the game against the Giants. We don't lose many games when he plays well. He's playing outstanding. He's playing really good that's for sure."
Before 2009, Romo had a 14-20 touchdown to interception ratio in December to go along with a 5-8 record since becoming the Cowboys' full-time starter in 2006.
Over the past month, including three straight December games, Romo has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. He has had four straight games with a passer rating over 100.0. And he is in the midst of a career-best streak of 156 passes without an interception.
With seven interceptions on the season, he is on pace for a career low in 2009. After four picks the first four games this season, including three against the Giants in Week 2, he has three the past ten games.
WR Miles Austin didn't even begin the season as a Cowboys starter. But he now is tied with Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald and San Francisco's Vernon Davis for most touchdown receptions with 11. Austin didn't start until the fifth game of the year. He has been one of the league's biggest surprises.
Dallas is 7-3 SU its last ten overall and always plays Washington tough; 15-8 ATS its last 23.
On the other side of the field: Albert Haynesworth, the All-Pro defensive tackle who left Tennessee for a seven-year, $100 million contract with Washington during the first hours of free agency on Feb. 27, took shots at coach Jim Zorn and defensive coordinator Greg Blache after the Redskins were pummeled 45-12 by the Giants on Monday night.
The Redskins rank ninth on defense, fifth against the pass and third in sacks per attempt. However, they surrendered 15 plays of at least 30 yards the past seven games and I believe this team will continue to struggle down the stretch.
Not only are the Redskins just 1-4 SU their last five at home, they are also just 3-10 ATS their last 13 at FedEx Field.
Bottom line: The Cowboys will win handily if they: stop the run and force slumping QB Jason Campbell to beat them with his arm.
Campbell threw two picks and was sacked five times by the Giants last Monday and has been beaten up all year.
Expect the Cowboys' offense to limit its mistakes and make plays down the field in the running and passing game. Washington won't win without tremendous help from the Cowboys; and that's not going to happen with the way this team is playing right now.
Look for DALLAS to improve to 8-4 ATS this season vs. conference opponents and 6-2 ATS its last eight as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points and for Washington to fall to 2-4 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent!