Larry Ness' 10* PERFECT STORM Game of the Year (10-4, 71.4% TY!)
My 10* PERFECT STORM Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.
Baltimore can clinch a spot in the playoffs with a win this week. Baltimore entered the week tied with Pittsburgh in the AFC North with a 10-4 record but the Ravens trailed the Steelers in the divisional record tie-breaker, so the opportunity to earn another victory over an AFC North rival is important. That was BEFORE Pittsburgh easily handled the Panthers on Thursday night. Now, Sunday's game has even more importance! Baltimore earned an impressive 30-24 win over New Orleans for its second straight victory, as well as its FOURTH win in its last five games at home last Sunday. The most encouraging development for the Ravens was the performance of RB Ray Rice, who carried the ball 31 times for 153 yards. In all, Baltimore gained over 200 yards on the ground against the Saints defense. This formula for success should continue against a Browns defense that is 25th in the NFL by allowing 129.2 rushing YPG. The fact that New Orleans only rushed for 27 yards last week is also a very good sign for the Ravens in this game. Cleveland will want to get its rushing game going behind Peyton Hillis (1,129 YR/ 11 TDs). However, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by holding teams to just 93.6 rushing YPG. The Cleveland offense has struggled most of the year (despite Hillis' breakout season), ranking 28th in passing (187.8 passing YPG), 29th in total yardage (295 YPG) and 28th in scoring (18 PPG). This is bad news when facing Ray Lewis and the always-tough Ravens defense that is 4th in the NFL by limiting teams to just 18.1 PPG. Baltimore had to rally from a 17-14 deficit to defeat Cleveland by a 24-17 score in the first meeting between these two teams and Hillis 'killed' them, rushing for 144 yards plus catching seven passes. This should only help ensure that the Ravens take this divisional game very seriously. At 5-9 for the season and with head coach Eric Mangini's job status much in question, the Browns are playing out the string. Injuries are also setting in with this team as CB Eric Wright was placed on Injured Reserve this week. Both Hillis and QB Colt McCoy have been limited in practice this week due to nagging injuries. In all, the Ravens have too much at stake to slip up against a Cleveland team that they match up against very well. Joe Flacco is 5-0 SU all-time vs the Browns with all wins coming by at least seven points. The Ravens "beat the teams they should beat," going 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs an opponent with a losing record. That fits nicely here.
Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 10* NFL Total of the Week (11-4, 73% TY!)
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Oak Over at 4:05 ET.
The Colts' win last week over the Jags puts them in control of their playoff destiny. Win out and the Colts are postseason bound for the NINTH consecutive season! Amazingly, the Raiders also have longshot playoff hopes but more importantly, at 7-7, this club has "turned the corner" on a very 'dark' period in team history. The Raiders went 11-5 in 2002 and represented the AFC in the Super Bowl against the Bucs. The team's 48-21 loss sent the club on a downward spiral which saw them never win more than five games in any year since, until this season. While the Raiders are almost assured of not overtaking BOTH the Chargers and Chiefs, they can guarantee the team's first non-losing season since 2002, as well as possibly ending Indy's playoff chances. This will be Oakland's final home game, so don't expect them to go quietly.The Colts held the Jags to just 67 yards rushing last Sunday but the bottom line is this, Indy ranks 28th vs the run on the season, allowing 135.8 YPG on 4.7 YPC. Oakland is the league's second-best rushing team (157.5 YPG / 4.9 YPC) and RB McFadden comes in on quite a roll. He's run for 339 yards in his last three games (6.2 YPC) while catching 10 passes for another 155 yards. QB Jason Campbell will never be confused for Peyton Manning but he has looked more like a real NFL quarterback in recent weeks. He'll be throwing against an Indy pass D which allows 65.9 percent completions and has come up with just 10 INTs. The pass rush (once a strength) has been sub-par this year with only 26 sacks, as opposing QBs own a passer rating of 90.1 Speaking of QBs, it wasn't long ago that Peyton was in the "worst slump" of his career. He tossed 11 interceptions during a three-game losing streak with FOUR being returned for TDs. However, let me note that during that 'slump,' he completed 70.9 percent of his passes while throwing eight TDs and averaging 348.7 YPG through the air (it's all a matter or perspective!). Peyton has "righted the ship" the last two games (both wins), completing 73.0 percent of his passes while averaging 274.0 YPG. Most importantly, he hasn't thrown an interception while tossing four TDs. Oakland's pass D allows a low percentage of completions (54.5) and ranks 5th in passing yards allowed but has allowed a whopping 26 TDs while getting just EIGHT interceptions (91.6 QB rating). Now let's look at raw numbers. Indy games have reached 50 or more points 10 of 14 times in 2010, including averaging 59.6 PPG over the last five. Oakland's last four games have averaged 55.5 PPG with the Raiders scoring 28, 31 and 39 in their last three. Situationally, the Colts have played NINE overs in their last 10 road games (6-1 TY) and the Raiders have gone Over in SEVEN of their last 10 home games (5-2 TY). The total is high but this game is going over, anyway!
My 10* PERFECT STORM Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.
Baltimore can clinch a spot in the playoffs with a win this week. Baltimore entered the week tied with Pittsburgh in the AFC North with a 10-4 record but the Ravens trailed the Steelers in the divisional record tie-breaker, so the opportunity to earn another victory over an AFC North rival is important. That was BEFORE Pittsburgh easily handled the Panthers on Thursday night. Now, Sunday's game has even more importance! Baltimore earned an impressive 30-24 win over New Orleans for its second straight victory, as well as its FOURTH win in its last five games at home last Sunday. The most encouraging development for the Ravens was the performance of RB Ray Rice, who carried the ball 31 times for 153 yards. In all, Baltimore gained over 200 yards on the ground against the Saints defense. This formula for success should continue against a Browns defense that is 25th in the NFL by allowing 129.2 rushing YPG. The fact that New Orleans only rushed for 27 yards last week is also a very good sign for the Ravens in this game. Cleveland will want to get its rushing game going behind Peyton Hillis (1,129 YR/ 11 TDs). However, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by holding teams to just 93.6 rushing YPG. The Cleveland offense has struggled most of the year (despite Hillis' breakout season), ranking 28th in passing (187.8 passing YPG), 29th in total yardage (295 YPG) and 28th in scoring (18 PPG). This is bad news when facing Ray Lewis and the always-tough Ravens defense that is 4th in the NFL by limiting teams to just 18.1 PPG. Baltimore had to rally from a 17-14 deficit to defeat Cleveland by a 24-17 score in the first meeting between these two teams and Hillis 'killed' them, rushing for 144 yards plus catching seven passes. This should only help ensure that the Ravens take this divisional game very seriously. At 5-9 for the season and with head coach Eric Mangini's job status much in question, the Browns are playing out the string. Injuries are also setting in with this team as CB Eric Wright was placed on Injured Reserve this week. Both Hillis and QB Colt McCoy have been limited in practice this week due to nagging injuries. In all, the Ravens have too much at stake to slip up against a Cleveland team that they match up against very well. Joe Flacco is 5-0 SU all-time vs the Browns with all wins coming by at least seven points. The Ravens "beat the teams they should beat," going 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs an opponent with a losing record. That fits nicely here.
Good luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 10* NFL Total of the Week (11-4, 73% TY!)
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Oak Over at 4:05 ET.
The Colts' win last week over the Jags puts them in control of their playoff destiny. Win out and the Colts are postseason bound for the NINTH consecutive season! Amazingly, the Raiders also have longshot playoff hopes but more importantly, at 7-7, this club has "turned the corner" on a very 'dark' period in team history. The Raiders went 11-5 in 2002 and represented the AFC in the Super Bowl against the Bucs. The team's 48-21 loss sent the club on a downward spiral which saw them never win more than five games in any year since, until this season. While the Raiders are almost assured of not overtaking BOTH the Chargers and Chiefs, they can guarantee the team's first non-losing season since 2002, as well as possibly ending Indy's playoff chances. This will be Oakland's final home game, so don't expect them to go quietly.The Colts held the Jags to just 67 yards rushing last Sunday but the bottom line is this, Indy ranks 28th vs the run on the season, allowing 135.8 YPG on 4.7 YPC. Oakland is the league's second-best rushing team (157.5 YPG / 4.9 YPC) and RB McFadden comes in on quite a roll. He's run for 339 yards in his last three games (6.2 YPC) while catching 10 passes for another 155 yards. QB Jason Campbell will never be confused for Peyton Manning but he has looked more like a real NFL quarterback in recent weeks. He'll be throwing against an Indy pass D which allows 65.9 percent completions and has come up with just 10 INTs. The pass rush (once a strength) has been sub-par this year with only 26 sacks, as opposing QBs own a passer rating of 90.1 Speaking of QBs, it wasn't long ago that Peyton was in the "worst slump" of his career. He tossed 11 interceptions during a three-game losing streak with FOUR being returned for TDs. However, let me note that during that 'slump,' he completed 70.9 percent of his passes while throwing eight TDs and averaging 348.7 YPG through the air (it's all a matter or perspective!). Peyton has "righted the ship" the last two games (both wins), completing 73.0 percent of his passes while averaging 274.0 YPG. Most importantly, he hasn't thrown an interception while tossing four TDs. Oakland's pass D allows a low percentage of completions (54.5) and ranks 5th in passing yards allowed but has allowed a whopping 26 TDs while getting just EIGHT interceptions (91.6 QB rating). Now let's look at raw numbers. Indy games have reached 50 or more points 10 of 14 times in 2010, including averaging 59.6 PPG over the last five. Oakland's last four games have averaged 55.5 PPG with the Raiders scoring 28, 31 and 39 in their last three. Situationally, the Colts have played NINE overs in their last 10 road games (6-1 TY) and the Raiders have gone Over in SEVEN of their last 10 home games (5-2 TY). The total is high but this game is going over, anyway!
PITT VIPER SPORTS
NFL
Sunday December 26th, 2010
ROT# 109 - 1:00pm - Washington +7 -110
ROT# 122 - 1:00pm - Tennessee/Kansas City under 43 -115 (bought half point)
ROT# 123 - 4:05pm - Indianapolis/Oakland over 46.5 -110
ROT# 125 - 4:05pm - Houston/Denver over 48 -120 (bought half point)
ROT# 121 - 1:00pm - Tennessee +5 -110
ROT# 124 - 4:05pm - Oakland +3 -105
ROT# 128 - 4:15pm - Green Bay -3 -105
ROT# 120 -1:00pm - Baltimore/Cleveland under 40 -115
ROT# 129 - 4:05pm - San Diego/Cincinnati over 44 -110
ROT# 127 - 4:15pm - New York Giants/Green Bay over 43 -110
NFL
Sunday December 26th, 2010
ROT# 109 - 1:00pm - Washington +7 -110
ROT# 122 - 1:00pm - Tennessee/Kansas City under 43 -115 (bought half point)
ROT# 123 - 4:05pm - Indianapolis/Oakland over 46.5 -110
ROT# 125 - 4:05pm - Houston/Denver over 48 -120 (bought half point)
ROT# 121 - 1:00pm - Tennessee +5 -110
ROT# 124 - 4:05pm - Oakland +3 -105
ROT# 128 - 4:15pm - Green Bay -3 -105
ROT# 120 -1:00pm - Baltimore/Cleveland under 40 -115
ROT# 129 - 4:05pm - San Diego/Cincinnati over 44 -110
ROT# 127 - 4:15pm - New York Giants/Green Bay over 43 -110
OC Dooley
4-UNITS on Browns +4 (Early Best Bet)(1:00 et kickoff)
3-UNITS on Seahawks +6' (Late Best Bet)(4:15 et kickoff)
3-UNITS on Texans/Broncos UNDER 49' (Best Bet total)(4:05 et kickoff)
2-UNITS on Packers -3 (National-TV "doubleheader" game) (4:15 et kickoff)
2-UNITS on Vikings +14 (Sunday Night) (8:20 et kickoff)
4-UNITS on Browns +4 (Early Best Bet)(1:00 et kickoff)
3-UNITS on Seahawks +6' (Late Best Bet)(4:15 et kickoff)
3-UNITS on Texans/Broncos UNDER 49' (Best Bet total)(4:05 et kickoff)
2-UNITS on Packers -3 (National-TV "doubleheader" game) (4:15 et kickoff)
2-UNITS on Vikings +14 (Sunday Night) (8:20 et kickoff)
