Larry Ness' 10* NFL Game of the Year (the 'BIG One!')
My 10* NFL Game of the Year is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.
The Bengals took a three-game winning streak into last week’s SNF game at Pittsburgh and promptly fell behind 24-0! The Bengals were held to 279 total yards by the Steelers, as they tied a season-low with 57 yards rushing. Meanwhile, the “out of the playoff Vikings,” snapped the Eagles’ five-game winning streak last Sunday, winning 48-30 in Philadelphia. Playing without Adrian Peterson or his backup Toby Gerhart, the Vikings relied on Matt Cassel, who went 26 of 35 for 382 yards (two TDs / 1 INT / 116.6 QB rating) to lead the way.
The 4-9-1 Vikings won't be making a second straight playoff appearance but the focus remains on themselves, not the fate of their opponent. We don't use that word spoiler in our conversation," head coach Leslie Frazier said. "We're trying our very best to work as hard as we can to get a win for our team and it's nothing to do with the impact it would have on any other team." WR Greg Jennings set season highs with 11 catches and 163 yards plus a TD against Philly, while third-string RB Matt Asiata rushed for three TDs (despite just 51 yards rushing on 30 carries), as Minnesota produced its highest-scoring game of the season. Peterson and Gerhart have been upgraded to probable this week and Cassel is set to make his third straight start, after throwing for 890 yards with five TDs and two INTs in the last three games.
The Vikings have covered FOUR in a row (also five of their last six), so one could take the position that they are a dangerous team here, playing with nothing to lose (or gain). However, I have no intention of overlooking the fact that the Vikings defense allowed 475 yards at Philly last week, as Foles threw for 428 yards and three TDs. So much has been made of Dallas’ awful defense this past week (after the Cowboys’ monumental collapse last Sunday vs the Packers), but let me point out that the Minnesota defense is “right there” with the Dallas defense, at the bottom of the NFL’s stats.
The Vikings are allowing 406.5 YPG (Cowboys allow 427.3), 290.6 passing YPG (Cowboys allow 297.4) and 30.4 PPG (Cowboys allow 27.4). No NFL team has allowed more TD passes than Minnesota (32) and the secondary has just 12 INTs while facing 577 pass attempts! Andy Dalton will finished with a career-year in 2013, as he’s got 27 TDs (matching LY’s career-high) and has 3,649 passing yards (finished LY with 3,669). Just why won’t Dalton have a HUGE game here? He’s thrown 21 TDs (7 INTs) in six home games, earning a QB rating of 103.0, on 8.02 YPA. That’s opposed to his road numbers of six TDs, nine INTs, just 5.96 YPA and a QB rating of 67.7.
Cincinnati had averaged 141.6 rushing YPG in its previous five games, before last Sunday’s struggles, as Green-Ellis and Bernard have developed into a solid duo. With the Bengals back at home and with a chance to secure a playoff berth and the AFC North title this Sunday, it’s the perfect set up for a Cincy rout! The Bengals sure don’t want the Colts passing them for the No. 3 seed (teams are both 9-5 but Cincy owns the toie-breaker due to a 42-28 win over Indy), plus the Bengals got an added bonus when the Pats lost at Miami last Sunday.
New England is now 10-4 and with a tough game at Baltimore this Sunday night, could drop to 10-5, meaning a Cincy win would put the Bengals at 10-5 as well, while owning the tie-breaker over the Pats (beat them 13-6 here in Cincy). If Cincy wins out and the Pats lose either at Baltimore (the Ravens are favored!) or home to the Bills in Week 17 (much less likely), all of a sudden, the Bengals are in line for the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. Maybe I’m making too much of that but then again, I don't think I am.
What I find more relevant though, is that Minnesota has yet to win on the road in 2013, while allowing 30.1 PPG. Meanwhile, the Bengals are not only 6-0 SU and ATS at home this year (outscoring opponents on average, 33.2-to-17.2 PPG), but going back to the team's 31-13 Week 10 win at home vs the Giants last year, the Bengals are 9-1 SU and ATS at home, losing only 20-19 to the Cowboys, when they blew a 17-10 lead with less than seven minutes to go. The Bengals have scored 49 points (Jets), 41 points (Browns) and 42 points (Colts) in their last three home games.
I don’t see any way that this sad-sack Minnesota defense can slow down this very focused group of Bengals (looking to make up for that AWFUL performance on Sunday night), who have SO much to gain. As for that Minnesota offense (even with A.P. back), the Vikings won’t be facing the Philly defense in this one (which is in the same category as the Dallas and Minnesota defenses), but rather they’ll face a Cincy D which ranks 6th in both points allowed (19.6) and yards allowed (318.4).
My 10* NFL Game of the Year is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.
The Bengals took a three-game winning streak into last week’s SNF game at Pittsburgh and promptly fell behind 24-0! The Bengals were held to 279 total yards by the Steelers, as they tied a season-low with 57 yards rushing. Meanwhile, the “out of the playoff Vikings,” snapped the Eagles’ five-game winning streak last Sunday, winning 48-30 in Philadelphia. Playing without Adrian Peterson or his backup Toby Gerhart, the Vikings relied on Matt Cassel, who went 26 of 35 for 382 yards (two TDs / 1 INT / 116.6 QB rating) to lead the way.
The 4-9-1 Vikings won't be making a second straight playoff appearance but the focus remains on themselves, not the fate of their opponent. We don't use that word spoiler in our conversation," head coach Leslie Frazier said. "We're trying our very best to work as hard as we can to get a win for our team and it's nothing to do with the impact it would have on any other team." WR Greg Jennings set season highs with 11 catches and 163 yards plus a TD against Philly, while third-string RB Matt Asiata rushed for three TDs (despite just 51 yards rushing on 30 carries), as Minnesota produced its highest-scoring game of the season. Peterson and Gerhart have been upgraded to probable this week and Cassel is set to make his third straight start, after throwing for 890 yards with five TDs and two INTs in the last three games.
The Vikings have covered FOUR in a row (also five of their last six), so one could take the position that they are a dangerous team here, playing with nothing to lose (or gain). However, I have no intention of overlooking the fact that the Vikings defense allowed 475 yards at Philly last week, as Foles threw for 428 yards and three TDs. So much has been made of Dallas’ awful defense this past week (after the Cowboys’ monumental collapse last Sunday vs the Packers), but let me point out that the Minnesota defense is “right there” with the Dallas defense, at the bottom of the NFL’s stats.
The Vikings are allowing 406.5 YPG (Cowboys allow 427.3), 290.6 passing YPG (Cowboys allow 297.4) and 30.4 PPG (Cowboys allow 27.4). No NFL team has allowed more TD passes than Minnesota (32) and the secondary has just 12 INTs while facing 577 pass attempts! Andy Dalton will finished with a career-year in 2013, as he’s got 27 TDs (matching LY’s career-high) and has 3,649 passing yards (finished LY with 3,669). Just why won’t Dalton have a HUGE game here? He’s thrown 21 TDs (7 INTs) in six home games, earning a QB rating of 103.0, on 8.02 YPA. That’s opposed to his road numbers of six TDs, nine INTs, just 5.96 YPA and a QB rating of 67.7.
Cincinnati had averaged 141.6 rushing YPG in its previous five games, before last Sunday’s struggles, as Green-Ellis and Bernard have developed into a solid duo. With the Bengals back at home and with a chance to secure a playoff berth and the AFC North title this Sunday, it’s the perfect set up for a Cincy rout! The Bengals sure don’t want the Colts passing them for the No. 3 seed (teams are both 9-5 but Cincy owns the toie-breaker due to a 42-28 win over Indy), plus the Bengals got an added bonus when the Pats lost at Miami last Sunday.
New England is now 10-4 and with a tough game at Baltimore this Sunday night, could drop to 10-5, meaning a Cincy win would put the Bengals at 10-5 as well, while owning the tie-breaker over the Pats (beat them 13-6 here in Cincy). If Cincy wins out and the Pats lose either at Baltimore (the Ravens are favored!) or home to the Bills in Week 17 (much less likely), all of a sudden, the Bengals are in line for the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye. Maybe I’m making too much of that but then again, I don't think I am.
What I find more relevant though, is that Minnesota has yet to win on the road in 2013, while allowing 30.1 PPG. Meanwhile, the Bengals are not only 6-0 SU and ATS at home this year (outscoring opponents on average, 33.2-to-17.2 PPG), but going back to the team's 31-13 Week 10 win at home vs the Giants last year, the Bengals are 9-1 SU and ATS at home, losing only 20-19 to the Cowboys, when they blew a 17-10 lead with less than seven minutes to go. The Bengals have scored 49 points (Jets), 41 points (Browns) and 42 points (Colts) in their last three home games.
I don’t see any way that this sad-sack Minnesota defense can slow down this very focused group of Bengals (looking to make up for that AWFUL performance on Sunday night), who have SO much to gain. As for that Minnesota offense (even with A.P. back), the Vikings won’t be facing the Philly defense in this one (which is in the same category as the Dallas and Minnesota defenses), but rather they’ll face a Cincy D which ranks 6th in both points allowed (19.6) and yards allowed (318.4).
