ASA's Pick Pack
NFL Sunday Picks
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Matchup: New Orleans at Carolina
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Carolina (-3 -110)
Line Source: Peppermill
Posted on: December 21, 2013 @ 12:28:35 PM EST
Quick revenger for the Panthers. These two met just two weeks ago on Mondaynight and Carolina was embarrassed on national TV at New Orleans. It’s not as if this was a rare event as the Saints tend to roll most teams in the dome. The Saints have covered every game at home this year with the exception of one (lost that by a half point) and 5 of their 7 home wins have come by at least 18 points. However, it’s a completely different story when New Orleans is forced to leave the Bayou.They are just 3-4 SU on the road and have covered only ONCE this year away from home. They have been whipped in each of their last two road games by double digits (@ Seattle and @ St. Louis). Their numbers in general drop off drastically on the road. New Orleans is averaging 33 PPG at home and just 18 PPG on the road. Many think of this Saints unit as an offensive juggernaut but the truth is they’ve only topped 20 points twice in their seven roadies. Now facing the NFL’s #2 total defense, an angry one at that, we think the Saints we’ll really struggle offensively as they have all season on the road.The Panther defense has been stout all year as indicated in their #2 ranking. The one really poor game they had was against this Saints team two weeks ago. They allowed 31 points which is a full TD higher than ANY OTHER GAME this season.This defense will be ultra-focused and ready to roll here. They have allowed 16 points or less in 9 of their 14 games this year. The Panthers have been tough at home losing just one game this year and that was a tight 12-7 loss to the NFL’s best, the Seattle Seahawks. Other than that they’ve won every home game by at least 10 points with the exception of New England (beat the Pats by 4). Cam Newton and the offense will also be highly motivated. Newton had one of his worst performances of the season in their Monday Nighter @ New Orleans passing for just 160 yards and scoring only 13 points.That should change here where the Panthers average just under 28 PPG at home and that takes into account their 7 point game here against Seattle. Throw that out and they average over 30 PPG in Charlotte. Many are selling the fact that a New Orleans win here clinches the NFC South. However, don’t forget that this is a HUGE game for Carolina who is fighting for a playoff berth and a potential NFC South Title as well. The home/road dichotomy of New Orleans can’t be discounted here.If you would have simply played the home team in every Saints game this year you would have a ATS mark of 13-1. Now facing one of the NFL’s best with revenge on their minds, we don’t see anything miraculously changing here. Lay the small number with Carolina.
Matchup: Cleveland at N.Y. Jets
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Cleveland (+2.5 -115)
Line Source: Bet Phoenix
Posted on: December 21, 2013 @ 12:32:20 PM EST
After a win over New Orleans on November 3rd, the Jets have been absolutely terrible. They've dropped four of five games, failing to score more than 14 points in three of those games. Rookie QB Geno Smith seems to be regressing as the season goes on. He has just two TD and eight INT over the last five games and has failed to complete at least 55% of his passes in four of those five games. Their only win over that span was at home against Oakland - possibly the only team playing worse than the Jets right now. Smith and this offense will have a really tough time sustaining drives against this Cleveland defense that ranks 8th in yards allowed - 9th against the pass and 8th against the rush. Cleveland ranks 11th in sacks per game and Smith doesn't exactly have the best pass protection; New York is 2nd to last in sacks allowed with 47. Cleveland has also been on a bit of a skid. The Browns have dropped five straight, but unlike the Jets, have been competitive in the losses. They lost to Jacksonville by four points, at New England by one point, and Chicago by seven points. They've received a big boost offensively behind QB Campbell. Campbell has tossed 10 TD and just 5 INT in his six appearances at QB. He has led the Browns to 26 & 31 points over the last two weeks. Campbell and this offense have had to overcome a rash of injuries, but as the new players get more in-tune with each other - and this offense should have a big day against this Jets defense that has allowed 27.2 PPG over the last five weeks.
Member Plays
Matchup: Dallas at Washington
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Washington (+3 -110)
Line Source: SouthPoint
Posted on: December 21, 2013 @ 12:31:24 PM EST
Washington turned the ball over seven times and finished -5 in turnovers against the Falcons last week, but only lost the game by one point. The Redskins even had a chance to win the game, but a failed two point conversion attempt sent them home with a loss. The way the Redskins fought to overcome the turnovers and the gutsy play-calling in the end proves that Washington has nothing to lose and that they’re motivated in playing the spoiler role the rest of the way. Defensively the Redskins played a masterful game against Atlanta. Theyallowed just 243 total yards, including 54 rush yards on 2.1 YPC. Despite given numerous opportunities off of turnovers, the Falcons were turned away by a fired up Redskins defense. Offensively, despite the turnovers, the Redskins looked rejuvenated behind new starting QB Kirk Cousins. Washington decided to sit 2nd year QB Griffin down for the remainder of the year and give fellow 2nd year man Cousins another shot. He took full advantage of the opportunity, completing 29-of-45 passes for 381 yards (a season high for the Redskins) with 3 TD and 2 INT. The strong performance on both sides of the ball should be proper motivation for the Redskins that they can close out the season on a high-note – and they would like nothing more than a win over the Cowboys on Sunday, further spoiling their rivals’ playoff chances. Dallas is off of an extremely disheartening one-point defeat at home against Green Bay. The Cowboys had a 26-3 halftime lead, but the defense allowed GB to score a touchdown on each of its five second half possessions. QB Tony Romo threw two interceptions in the final 3:00 of the game to help GB seal the win. Dallas’ defense is historically bad this season. The Cowboys have been outgained by more than any other team in the NFL this season and allowed 312 yards and five touchdowns on 38 2nd half plays by Green Bay on Sunday. Overall they rank 26th in scoring defense, 28th against the rush, and 32nd against the pass & total yards allowed. Washington’s revitalized offense should have no issue putting up a ton of yards against this Dallas defense and generating enough points to cover as the home ‘dog. Dallas is just 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Washington, including a 10-point loss last season. Expect a similar outcome and take the Redskins plus the points at home.
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Chicago at Philadelphia
Time: 8:30 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Philadelphia (-3 +100)
Line Source: GoldenNugget
Posted on: December 21, 2013 @ 12:28:35 PM EST
We think this one sets up nicely for the Eagles. They are off an embarrassing performance @ Minnesota losing 48-30. However, the Eagles actually outgained Minnesota by 26 yards in that game despite running 9 fewer offensive plays. The defense played poorly for the first time in quite a while and we expect them to bounce back. After a rough start to the season, the Philly defense had held 9 straight opponents to 21 points or less leading into last weekend. Chicago is off a road win @ Cleveland, a team that has now lost 8 of their last 9 games. In our opinion, not an overly impressive 38-31 win for the Bears. This is a terrible match up for a terrible Chicago defense. The Bears are allowing opponents to gain 6 yards per play which is 29thin the NFL. Worse yet, especially for this match up, Chicago is dead last in rush defense giving up 152 YPG which is a full 20 YPG worse than the team ranked just ahead of them (New England). They are also allowing 5.2 yards per rush which ranks them last in the NFL in that category. Before “holding” Cleveland to just 93 yards on the ground last week (which is actually 10 YPG better than the Browns average) the Bear defense has allowed 7 straight teams to top 145 yards on the ground. Not only that, 5 of those 7 teams got to at least 198 yards rushing in their games against Chicago. Bad, bad match up here for the Bears. They are facing an Eagle team that ranks #1 in the NFL when it comes to rushing offense (153 YPG) and YPC (5.0). After attempting only 13 rushes in last week’s loss, you can bet the Eagles will pound the rock this Sunday night. This isn’t a one trick pony on offense however as QB Nick Foles has become one of the more reliable signal callers in the NFL. He threw for 428 yards last week but better yet, he doesn’t turn the ball over with 23 TD’s and only 2 interceptions. The same can’t be said for his counterpart Jay Cutler who came back from a long layoff to throw 2 interceptions last week vs Cleveland. Both teams are battling for division titles but we love this spot and match up for Philly. Lay the field goal.