[h=3]John Ryan[/h]
Dec 18 '16, 1:00 PM
NFL | Packers vs Bears
Play on: Bears +4½ -110
Top Play
Game Analysis
25* graded play on the Chicago Bears (312) as they take on the Green Bay Packers (311) in NFC North action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-6 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (GREEN BAY) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:
Bears are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last two seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points
Weather conditions will have an impact on this game. It is very rare that we ever state that weather will impact the result or will favor one team and not the other, but in this case, it does favor the Bears. Green Bay’s ground game is average with their OL having below average run blocking grades. Chicago’s defensive front is one of the best in the game that the media never highlights. That defensive front will completely stop the ground game forcing Rogers to make throws in what will be horrific conditions with wind chills between -10 and -20 degrees. Even for the best spiral throwers in the game, the swirling and strong winds will make any throw over 15 yards difficult. Punts will be a big factor too and I would not be surprised to see returners let the ball drop to the ground instead of attempting a high-risk catch. Bears ground game will be successful against the Packers DL. Bears rank 8th averaging 4.4 yards-per-rush. Also, have you noticed that Bears have covered 5 of the last six games? Plus, Rogers I 0-3 in his career when the game temperatures are in the single digits. He HATES this weather and is nursing a right calf injury, which is the leg an RH QB needs strength and leverage to throw the ball. Take the Bears and expect the win.
Dec 18 '16, 1:00 PM
NFL | Jaguars vs Texans
Play on: Jaguars +3½ -110
Top Play
Game Analysis
25* graded play on Jacksonville (319) as they take on Houston (320) in AFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-21 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick after 7 or more consecutive losses. 41% of the plays made based on the criteria of this system covered the spread by more than 7 points. This underscores the upset potential identified by the SIM Algorithm
The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:
· JAX is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.
· JAX is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt
Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Jaguars.
Houston is arguably the worst offensive team to ever be in first place in a Division. They have been outscored by 45 points this season. Of course, JAX is a struggling team having lost eight straight games, but they do have the tools and talent to compete and win this game. JAX passing defense has done very well ranking 5th in opponent passing yards per attempt, 4th allowing 203 passing yards per game and 14th in sacks. Houston is a horrible 29th averaging just 5.8 yards per pass, rank 28th throwing an interception on 2.88% of all plays run, and 28th in completion percentage. JAX surprises everyone, but not you and not us. Take Jacksonville.
Dec 18 '16, 1:00 PM
NFL | Titans vs Chiefs
Play on: Titans +6½ -105
Top Play
Game Analysis
25* graded play on Tennessee (317) as they take on Kansas City (318) in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-11 SU mark using the money line for 79% winners over the past five seasons. Play against any team using the money line (KANSAS CITY) after a game where they forced no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after four consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:
Titans are 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they rush for 150 to 175 yards
Titans are 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards
KC is a money burning 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) when they allow 150 to 175 rushing yards
KC is also a horrid 25-80 ATS (-63.0 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards
Fundamental Discussion Points
As the SIM projects and the technical points under score, it will be the Titans ground attack that will be the principle reason they win this road game and take control of the AFC South Division. Tennessee ranks 3rd averaging 4.7 yards per rush, 3rd averaging 144.5 rushing yards per game, and 2nd with 48% of all plays executed on the ground. KC can’t stop the run and rank 25th allowing 4.3 yards per rush, 27th allowing 123 rushing yards per game. Marriota has played extremely well over the last nine games and has done even better taking care of the ball and not forcing throws that can lead to interceptions. Tennessee has gone four straight games without a turnover while creating eight turnovers by their defense. Take Tennessee.
Dec 18 '16, 1:00 PM
NFL | Packers vs Bears
Play on: Bears +4½ -110
Top Play
Game Analysis
25* graded play on the Chicago Bears (312) as they take on the Green Bay Packers (311) in NFC North action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Chicago will lose this game by fewer than 4 points and has a great opportunity to win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-6 ATS mark good for 83% winners since 2005. Play against favorites (GREEN BAY) off an upset win as a home underdog and with a winning record on the season.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:
Bears are a perfect 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last two seasons.
Fundamental Discussion Points
Weather conditions will have an impact on this game. It is very rare that we ever state that weather will impact the result or will favor one team and not the other, but in this case, it does favor the Bears. Green Bay’s ground game is average with their OL having below average run blocking grades. Chicago’s defensive front is one of the best in the game that the media never highlights. That defensive front will completely stop the ground game forcing Rogers to make throws in what will be horrific conditions with wind chills between -10 and -20 degrees. Even for the best spiral throwers in the game, the swirling and strong winds will make any throw over 15 yards difficult. Punts will be a big factor too and I would not be surprised to see returners let the ball drop to the ground instead of attempting a high-risk catch. Bears ground game will be successful against the Packers DL. Bears rank 8th averaging 4.4 yards-per-rush. Also, have you noticed that Bears have covered 5 of the last six games? Plus, Rogers I 0-3 in his career when the game temperatures are in the single digits. He HATES this weather and is nursing a right calf injury, which is the leg an RH QB needs strength and leverage to throw the ball. Take the Bears and expect the win.
Dec 18 '16, 1:00 PM
NFL | Jaguars vs Texans
Play on: Jaguars +3½ -110
Top Play
Game Analysis
25* graded play on Jacksonville (319) as they take on Houston (320) in AFC South action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that JAX will win this game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 51-21 ATS mark good for 71% winners since 1983. Play on road underdogs or pick after 7 or more consecutive losses. 41% of the plays made based on the criteria of this system covered the spread by more than 7 points. This underscores the upset potential identified by the SIM Algorithm
The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:
· JAX is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when they allow 15 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.
· JAX is a solid 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when they allow 5 to 5.5 net passing yards/attempt
Fundamental Discussion Points If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Jaguars.
Houston is arguably the worst offensive team to ever be in first place in a Division. They have been outscored by 45 points this season. Of course, JAX is a struggling team having lost eight straight games, but they do have the tools and talent to compete and win this game. JAX passing defense has done very well ranking 5th in opponent passing yards per attempt, 4th allowing 203 passing yards per game and 14th in sacks. Houston is a horrible 29th averaging just 5.8 yards per pass, rank 28th throwing an interception on 2.88% of all plays run, and 28th in completion percentage. JAX surprises everyone, but not you and not us. Take Jacksonville.
Dec 18 '16, 1:00 PM
NFL | Titans vs Chiefs
Play on: Titans +6½ -105
Top Play
Game Analysis
25* graded play on Tennessee (317) as they take on Kansas City (318) in AFC action set to start at 1:00 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Tennessee will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great shot at winning the game. Given the favorable projections, I like making these opportunistic DOGS combination wagers using the line and money line for maximum return on investment (ROI). In this case, the optimal combination is to wager a 20* play on the line and a 5* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 42-11 SU mark using the money line for 79% winners over the past five seasons. Play against any team using the money line (KANSAS CITY) after a game where they forced no turnovers and is now facing an opponent after four consecutive games where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers.
The following game situations match the SIM projections and compiled research for this game:
Titans are 32-8 ATS (+23.2 Units) when they rush for 150 to 175 yards
Titans are 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) when they outgain their opponents by 50-100 yards
KC is a money burning 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) when they allow 150 to 175 rushing yards
KC is also a horrid 25-80 ATS (-63.0 Units) when they allow 150 or more rushing yards
Fundamental Discussion Points
As the SIM projects and the technical points under score, it will be the Titans ground attack that will be the principle reason they win this road game and take control of the AFC South Division. Tennessee ranks 3rd averaging 4.7 yards per rush, 3rd averaging 144.5 rushing yards per game, and 2nd with 48% of all plays executed on the ground. KC can’t stop the run and rank 25th allowing 4.3 yards per rush, 27th allowing 123 rushing yards per game. Marriota has played extremely well over the last nine games and has done even better taking care of the ball and not forcing throws that can lead to interceptions. Tennessee has gone four straight games without a turnover while creating eight turnovers by their defense. Take Tennessee.
Prediction Machine
318 1:00 PM TEN @ KC 42 47.3 Over 59.4 $74
316 1:00 PM CLE @ BUF 41.5 47.0 Over 59.0 $69
326 4:25 PM NE @ DEN 44 39.1 Under 58.5 $64
306 8:30 PM TB @ DAL 46.5 51.4 Over 57.4 $53
312 1:00 PM @CHI Lock of the Week GB 7 -3.9 58.6 $65
326 4:25 PM @DEN NE 3 -0.2 57.2 $51
322 4:05 PM @ARI NO -2 5.1 57.2
318 1:00 PM TEN @ KC 42 47.3 Over 59.4 $74
316 1:00 PM CLE @ BUF 41.5 47.0 Over 59.0 $69
326 4:25 PM NE @ DEN 44 39.1 Under 58.5 $64
306 8:30 PM TB @ DAL 46.5 51.4 Over 57.4 $53
312 1:00 PM @CHI Lock of the Week GB 7 -3.9 58.6 $65
326 4:25 PM @DEN NE 3 -0.2 57.2 $51
322 4:05 PM @ARI NO -2 5.1 57.2
