PSYCHIC
2 units NY Jets -7.5
2 units Arizona -3
4 units Dallas -3
MAJOR
5 units Pittsburgh +2.5
WISEGUY
DA STICK
5 units Green Bay -1
5 units Tennessee -3.5
10 units SD - KC over 44.5
10 units TEASER - Tampa +13, NY Jets +2.5, Dallas +7
10 units Denver +9
15 units New York Jets -7.5
15 units New England -6.5
2 units NY Jets -7.5
2 units Arizona -3
4 units Dallas -3
MAJOR
5 units Pittsburgh +2.5
WISEGUY
DA STICK
5 units Green Bay -1
5 units Tennessee -3.5
10 units SD - KC over 44.5
10 units TEASER - Tampa +13, NY Jets +2.5, Dallas +7
10 units Denver +9
15 units New York Jets -7.5
15 units New England -6.5
Kelso Sports Handicapping
200 Unit NFL Blowout Game Of Year
Sunday, December 14, 2008
NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR200 UnitsPatriots (-6½) over Raiders
4:15 PM -- McAfee Coliseum
New England by 21-24 Points
Starting Time: 4:15 Comments: New England (8-5) is tied with both the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins for first place in the AFC East and is in an absolutely must win situation. There is no team anyone would rather face in this circumstance than the Oakland Raiders (3-10), an obviously confused team that has little talent and less coaching. In watching the Raiders of late, it is a simple fact its receivers and quarterback are not on the same page and the defensive backfield blows coverage after coverage. New England coach Bill Belichik will come with a game plan to rip the Raiders to pieces—and the figures say the Patriots will do just that.
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
200 Unit NFL Blowout Game Of Year
Sunday, December 14, 2008
NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR200 UnitsPatriots (-6½) over Raiders
4:15 PM -- McAfee Coliseum
New England by 21-24 Points
Starting Time: 4:15 Comments: New England (8-5) is tied with both the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins for first place in the AFC East and is in an absolutely must win situation. There is no team anyone would rather face in this circumstance than the Oakland Raiders (3-10), an obviously confused team that has little talent and less coaching. In watching the Raiders of late, it is a simple fact its receivers and quarterback are not on the same page and the defensive backfield blows coverage after coverage. New England coach Bill Belichik will come with a game plan to rip the Raiders to pieces—and the figures say the Patriots will do just that.
Mostly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
Rocketman
Buffalo @ NY Jets
Play: 3* Buffalo +9
Buffalo is 2-0 SU and ATS at NY Jets last 3 years. Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Jets are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. We'll play Buffalo for 3 units today!
__________________
Buffalo @ NY Jets
Play: 3* Buffalo +9
Buffalo is 2-0 SU and ATS at NY Jets last 3 years. Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Jets are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. We'll play Buffalo for 3 units today!
__________________
Wild Bill
Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 (5 units)
Atlanta Falcons -3 (5 units)
San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 (5 units)
Tennessee Titans -3 (5 units)
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 (5 units)
Denver Broncos +7 1/2 (5 units)
New England Patriots -7 (5 units)
New York Giants +3 (5 units)
Bears-New Orleans Saints Over 44 1/2 (5 units) WON
Colts-Detroit Lions Over 44 1/2 (5 units)
Eagles-Cleveland Browns Over 38 1/2 (5 units)
Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 (5 units)
Atlanta Falcons -3 (5 units)
San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 (5 units)
Tennessee Titans -3 (5 units)
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 (5 units)
Denver Broncos +7 1/2 (5 units)
New England Patriots -7 (5 units)
New York Giants +3 (5 units)
Bears-New Orleans Saints Over 44 1/2 (5 units) WON
Colts-Detroit Lions Over 44 1/2 (5 units)
Eagles-Cleveland Browns Over 38 1/2 (5 units)
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GamblersWorld
Tip of the Day - December 14, 2008
Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NFL
Game: 8:30PM, Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
Current Line: -14
Over/Under: 38
Reason: The Cleveland Browns and the Philadelphia Eagles will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at Lincoln Financial Field.
Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as 14-point favorites versus the Browns, while the game's total is sitting at 38.
The Browns lost to Tennessee 28-9 as a 14-point underdog last week. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (37).
Ken Dorsey threw for 150 yards with an interception for Cleveland and Jamal Lewis was held to seven yards on seven carries.
The Eagles defeated the Giants 20-14 as a 7-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43).
Brian Westbrook rushed for 131 yards with a touchdown run and a TD reception for Philadelphia, while Donovan McNabb passed for 191 yards with a touchdown in the win.
Current streak:
Cleveland has lost 3 straight games.
Philadelphia has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Cleveland: 4-9 SU, 7-6 ATS
Philadelphia: 7-5-1 SU, 8-5 ATS
Cleveland most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on grass are 2-8
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 4-6
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing in December are 8-2
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing on outside the division are 7-2-1
A few trends to consider:
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 19 games
Cleveland is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Tip of the Day - December 14, 2008
Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NFL
Game: 8:30PM, Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
Current Line: -14
Over/Under: 38
Reason: The Cleveland Browns and the Philadelphia Eagles will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at Lincoln Financial Field.
Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as 14-point favorites versus the Browns, while the game's total is sitting at 38.
The Browns lost to Tennessee 28-9 as a 14-point underdog last week. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (37).
Ken Dorsey threw for 150 yards with an interception for Cleveland and Jamal Lewis was held to seven yards on seven carries.
The Eagles defeated the Giants 20-14 as a 7-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43).
Brian Westbrook rushed for 131 yards with a touchdown run and a TD reception for Philadelphia, while Donovan McNabb passed for 191 yards with a touchdown in the win.
Current streak:
Cleveland has lost 3 straight games.
Philadelphia has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Cleveland: 4-9 SU, 7-6 ATS
Philadelphia: 7-5-1 SU, 8-5 ATS
Cleveland most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on grass are 2-8
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 4-6
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing in December are 8-2
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing on outside the division are 7-2-1
A few trends to consider:
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 19 games
Cleveland is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Green Bay (5-8, 7-6 ATS) at Jacksonville (4-9, 3-10 ATS)
Two teams whose seasons are surprisingly all but over square off when the Packers travel to Alltel Stadium to meet the Jaguars.
Green Bay tumbled to Houston 24-21 as a seven-point home favorite, losing on Kris Brown’s 40-yard field goal for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Aaron Rodgers (295 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and RB Ryan Grant (104 yards rushing, 1 TD) were solid, and Green Bay won the turnover battle 4-1. But the Packers allowed a whopping 549 total yards, with Falcons QB Matt Schaub (28 of 42, 414 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and RB Steve Slaton (26 carries, 120 yards) doing most of the damage.
Jacksonville lost to Chicago 23-10 as a 6½-point road underdog to fall to 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four starts, and the SU winner is now on a 9-0 ATS tear for the Jags. It was an evenly played game, with Jacksonville outgained by just 18 yards (296-278) and both teams committing one turnover, but the Jaguars trailed 20-3 at halftime and didn’t get into the end zone until the fourth quarter.
These squads haven’t met in the regular season since 2004, when Jacksonville won 28-25 as a four-point road pup.
Despite their current woes, the Packers remain on positive ATS streaks of 21-10-1 overall, 13-4-1 on the road, 4-1 as a road chalk, 7-2 against losing teams and 8-4-1 visiting AFC teams. The Jaguars are on ATS runs of 9-4 at home against the NFC and 8-3-1 as a home pup, but the trends turn downward from there, including 0-6 at Alltel, 1-12 on grass and 1-5 against losing teams.
The over is on several runs for Green Bay, including 22-7-1 overall, 12-2 with the Pack favored, 7-2-1 after a SU loss and 39-19-2 on the road. On the flip side, the under for Jacksonville is on stretches of 5-2-1 overall, 8-3 with the Jags a home pup and 4-0 overall with the Jags getting points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Detroit (0-13, 5-8 ATS) at Indianapolis (9-4, 6-7 ATS)
The streaking Colts look to take a step closer to securing a wild-card berth when they host the hapless Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis ripped Cincinnati 35-3 to cash as a heavy 13½-point home chalk for its sixth consecutive victory (3-3 ATS). QB Peyton Manning (26 of 32, 277 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was solid, and the Colts defense allowed just 252 yards while winning the turnover battle 4-1, including Kelvin Hayden’s 85-yard INT return for a TD in the fourth quarter.
Detroit fell short to Minnesota 20-16 as a 10½-point home underdog, ending a two-game ATS skid but still falling to 1-20 SU and 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games. QB Daunte Culpepper (14 of 24, 220 yards, 1 TD) was steady in leading a turnover-free effort, but the Lions couldn’t take advantage of a 13-10 fourth-quarter lead nor a 2-0 edge in the turnover battle.
In two meetings this decade, Indy is 2-0 SU and ATS against Detroit, most recently winning 41-9 as a 9½-point road chalk in 2004.
The Colts are on ATS skids of 1-7-1 after a spread-cover, 2-6 at home and 4-9 in December, but they are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games against NFC foes. The Lions are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games catching points, but they have cashed in their last four road games, all as a double-digit chalk, and they are on a 10-1 ATS run as a pup of more than 10 points.
The under for Indianapolis is on a 4-1 run with the Colts a home chalk of more than 10 points. But the over for Detroit is on rolls of 16-5-1 overall, 9-1-1 against winning teams, 7-1-1 in December, 8-2 on the road and 10-2 with the Lions a ‘dog of more than 10.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Washington (7-6, 5-7-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (1-11-1, 4-9 ATS)
The Redskins will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive when they head to Paul Brown Stadium to take on the woeful Bengals.
Washington lost to Baltimore 24-10 as a six-point road pup, falling to 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games, and the SU winner is now on an 18-1-1 ATS tear in the Redskins’ last 20 games (11-1-1 ATS this season). QB Jason Campbell (21 of 37, 218 yards, 1 TD) threw a pair of INTs, and Ravens DB Ed Reed ran a Clinton Portis fumble back for a TD.
Cincinnati got pounded by Indianapolis 35-3 catching 13½ points on the road, losing SU and ATS for the third straight week. QB Ryan Fitzgerald (18 of 26, 170 yards, 0 TDs) had two INTs, with one returned 85 yards for a TD, and he also lost a fumble as the Bengals committed four turnovers while forcing just one.
Cincinnati won the only meeting this decade between these two teams, 17-10 getting four points on the road in 2004.
The Redskins are on ATS slides of 0-7-1 against the AFC, 3-7 as a non-division chalk and 3-11-2 against losing teams, though they have gone 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven roadies. The Bengals have nothing but negative ATS trends, including 2-6 overall, 3-8 as a home ‘dog, 1-5 after a SU loss, 1-4 after a non-cover and 2-5 in December.
The under for Washington is on tears of 8-0-1 overall, 5-0-1 with the Redskins favored, 5-1 on grass and 4-1-1 on the road, and the under for Cincinnati is on streaks of 6-1 in December, 6-2-1 at home and 9-4-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tampa Bay (9-4, 7-6 ATS) at Atlanta (8-5 SU and ATS)
Two NFC South rivals looking to keep pace in the postseason chase get together when the Buccaneers travel to the Georgia Dome to face the Falcons.
Tampa Bay tumbled to Carolina 38-23 Monday night as a three-point road ‘dog, ending a four-game SU win streak as the Bucs failed to cover for the second straight week. QB Jeff Garcia (24 of 38, 321 yards, 2 TDs) was solid in leading a turnover-free offense, and Tampa forced two turnovers, but it also allowed 464 yards – including a whopping 299 rushing yards -- and gave up three fourth-quarter touchdowns.
Atlanta lost to New Orleans 29-25 as a three-point road pup, ending a two-game SU and ATS surge. QB Matt Ryan (24 of 33, 315 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was fairly effective, and both teams finished with 414 total yards, but Ryan’s INT – the only turnover of the game – was converted into the first TD of the game by the Saints and ultimately proved the difference.
The SU winner is now 21-1 in the Falcons’ last 22 games, including a perfect 13-0 ATS this season.
Tampa is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run against Atlanta, including a 24-9 home win as a seven-point home chalk in September, and is on further pointspread runs in this rivalry of 6-2 at the Georgia Dome and 11-5 overall. The favorite has cashed in the last five clashes between these two.
The Buccaneers are on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 1-5 as a ‘dog of three points or less, 1-4 in December and 2-5 following a non-cover. The Falcons are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight division contests, but they are on pointspread streaks of 7-2 as a chalk, 6-0 after a SU loss, 5-0 after an ATS setback and 6-1 at home.
The over for Tampa Bay is on stretches of 4-0 on field turf, 6-0 in December and 9-2 on the road, and the over for Atlanta is on runs of 8-2 at home, 6-0 in December, 9-1 after a SU loss, 9-2 on field turf and 6-2 in NFC South play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
San Francisco (5-8, 6-7 ATS) at Miami (8-5, 6-7 ATS)
The Dolphins, who are in a three-way logjam for first in the AFC East just a season after winning one game, step out of the AFC to take on the surging 49ers.
Miami dropped Buffalo 16-3 in Toronto as a one-point “road” underdog for its second straight win, halting a four-game ATS tailspin in the process. QB Chad Pennington (23 of 29, 181 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t light it up, nor did he need to, as the Dolphins won the turnover battle 2-0, allowed just 163 total yards while gaining 295, and had a 15-minute advantage in time of possession (37:31-22:29).
San Francisco knocked off the Jets 24-14 catching four points at home for its second straight win and cover, giving the SU winner a 23-1 ATS record in the Niners’ last 24 games (12-1 ATS this year). QB Shaun Hill (28 of 39, 285 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) helped San Fran outscore New York 10-0 in the fourth quarter, and the defense held New York to a stifling 182 total yards as the 49ers nearly doubled the Jets in time of possession (39:49-20:11).
These two squads have met twice this decade, both times by the Bay, and each has gone 1-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, Miami won 24-17 as a one-point pup in 2004.
Despite their 8-5 SU mark, the Dolphins are on a bevy of ATS freefalls, including 5-21 as a favorite, 7-22-1 against losing teams, 12-32-1 at home and 1-5 against the NFC. The 49ers have cashed in four of their last five starts, but they also carry several negative ATS trends, including 9-24-1 in the Eastern Time Zone, 5-12 as a non-division ‘dog and 4-9 on the highway.
The under for Miami is on runs of 6-1 overall, 4-0 with the Dolphins favored, 10-2 after a SU win and 5-2 at home, but the over for San Francisco is on upticks of 4-1 on grass and 7-3-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Seattle (2-11, 5-8-1 ATS) at St. Louis (2-11, 4-9 ATS)
In a battle of squads mired in the NFC West basement meet at the Edward Jones Dome, with the Rams trying to end a seven-game losing skid overall and a seven-game skid to Seattle when they host the Seahawks.
Seattle couldn’t quite pull off the upset of New England, losing 24-21 as a seven-point home ‘dog for its sixth consecutive SU setback (2-3-1 ATS), though the Seahawks did cover for the first time in a month. QB Seneca Wallace (20 of 28, 212 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) helped Seattle take a 21-13 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Pats put up 11 points in the final frame and sealed the game by recovering a Wallace fumble late.
St. Louis got rolled at Arizona 34-10 as a heavy 14-point pup for its seventh straight loss (2-5 ATS). QB Marc Bulger (22 of 37, 228 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had decent stats, but turnovers killed the Rams, as they gave the ball away three times, with DB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie returning a pick 99 yards for a TD and DT Darnell Dockett returning a fumble 11 yards for a score.
Seattle is on a 7-0 SU run (5-2 ATS) in this NFC West rivalry, winning and cashing in the last three contests, including a 37-13 home rout in September as a nine-point home favorite.
The Seahawks actually sport a few positive ATS streaks, including 7-2 inside the division, 6-2 in December and 9-4-1 after a SU loss, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-8 as a road chalk and 1-7 after a spread-cover. The Rams, meanwhile, have nothing but negative ATS trends to speak of, most notably 1-5 overall, 0-4 in December, 0-6 in division play, 2-6 at home and 8-20 getting points.
The under for Seattle is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against NFC foes and 4-1 after a SU loss, and the under for St. Louis is on a 5-2 run, but the over for the Rams is on stretches of 4-1 against losing teams 9-3 in December and 9-4 with St. Louis a home pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Buffalo (6-7, 5-8 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (8-5, 7-6 ATS)
The suddenly slumping Jets hope to remain in the playoff hunt when they welcome the AFC East rival Bills to the Meadowlands.
New York went to San Francisco last week and got stung 24-14 as a four-point road chalk, losing SU and ATS for the second straight week following a 5-0 SU run (4-1 ATS). QB Brett Favre (20 of 31, 137 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had an awful day, capped by the INT he threw late in the fourth quarter to seal the Jets’ fate. New York was outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter and finished the day with a meager 182 total yards and just 20 minutes time of possession.
Buffalo continued its freefall with a 16-3 “home” loss to Miami in Toronto, where the Bills were a one-point favorite but dropped to 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games. QB J.P. Losman (13 of 27, 123 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had a weak outing in relief of the injured Trent Edwards, losing one of his three fumbles to go along with his INT. The Bills gained just 163 total yards – while allowing 295 – and had a 15-minute time-of-possession deficit.
Buffalo is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, but the one loss came last month when New York posted a 26-17 road win catching five points. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes, the underdog is on a 6-0 ATS surge and the road team has cashed in four of the last five contests.
The Jets are on ATS surges of 1-4 as a favorite, 1-4 after a SU loss and 3-9 against losing teams, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last six division contests. The Bills are on a 6-2 ATS run as a division road ‘dog, but they are otherwise on pointspread declines of 0-4 in division play, 0-7 against winning teams and 2-5 as an underdog.
The over for New York is on runs of 5-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 against the AFC and 4-1 at home, but the under for Buffalo is on rolls of 5-2-1 overall, 6-1 with the Bills a road ‘dog and 6-2-1 inside the division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Tennessee (12-1, 11-2 ATS) at Houston (6-7 SU and ATS)
The Titans, on the brink of securing home-field advantage for the playoffs, head to Reliant Stadium looking for their eighth straight win over the resurgent Texans.
Tennessee rolled past Cleveland 28-9 as a healthy 14-point home chalk for its second straight win and cover, and the SU winner is now 12-1 in the Titans’ 13 games this season. RBs Chris Johnson (19 carries, 136 yards, 1 TD) and LenDale White (24 carries, 99 yards, 1 TD) combined for 235 yards rushing, helping offset two INTs from QB Kerry Collins (14 of 23, 155 yards, 2 TDs), and the Titans defense allowed just 178 yards.
Houston stunned Green Bay 24-21 as a seven-point road pup for its third straight win and fourth straight cover. QB Matt Schaub (28 of 42, 414 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a monster day, which help the Texans overcome a 4-1 turnover deficit. RB Steve Slaton (26 carries, 120 yards) also came up big, and Kris Brown hit a 40-yard field goal as time expired to give Houston the upset win.
Tennessee is on a 7-0 SU run (6-1 ATS) in this AFC South rivalry, including a 31-12 home rout as a 4½-point home favorite in Week 3, and the Titans have cashed in the last five in a row. However, the underdog is on a 7-3 ATS run in the last 10 contests.
Along with their 11-2 ATS mark this season, the Titans are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 14-2 in division play, 17-5 in roadies, 7-0 against losing teams, 10-2 after a SU win, 10-2 as a favorite and 8-3 in December. The Texans are on ATS skids of 2-5 as a division home dog and 3-7 against winning teams, but they are on spread-covering upticks of 6-1 getting points at home, 5-1 in December and 12-4 at Reliant against teams with a winning road record.
The over for Tennessee is on tears of 5-1 against losing teams, 4-1 against the AFC and 7-2-1 in December, and the over for Houston is on streaks of 11-4 overall, 7-2 with the Texans a pup, 20-7 inside the division and 19-7 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 5-0 overall and 5-0 in Houston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Pittsburgh (10-3, 7-6 ATS) at Baltimore (9-4, 10-3 ATS)
First place in the AFC North is on the line at M&T Bank Stadium, where the Ravens host the Steelers in a clash of bitter rivals.
Pittsburgh rallied to beat Dallas 20-13 as a four-point home chalk and has now won four in a row (3-1 ATS). The Steelers trailed 20-3 entering the fourth quarter, but QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 33, 204 yards, 1 TD) led a FG drive and TD drive to tie it late in the fourth quarter, and CB Deshea Townsend ran back a Tony Romo INT for the winning TD with 1:40 remaining. Pittsburgh was dominated in most phases, but winning the turnover battle 5-2 proved the difference.
Baltimore dropped Washington 24-10 as a six-point home favorite, and the SU winner is now 22-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 24 games (12-1 ATS this season). QB Joe Flacco (10 of 21, 134 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a mediocre effort, but the Ravens won the turnover battle 3-2, with Ed Reed picking off Jason Campbell twice and returning a Clinton Portis fumble for a touchdown.
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS (4-3 SU) in the last seven clashes between these rivals, covering as a six-point road ‘dog in a 23-20 overtime loss in September. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Baltimore, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests overall.
The Steelers are on ATS tears of 4-0 on the highway, 9-3 as a division road pup, 5-2 after a SU win and 10-4 in December. Likewise, the Ravens are on a bevy of pointstread rolls, including 7-1 overall, 5-0 as a favorite, 6-0 in the AFC North, 6-1 at home, 9-4 in December and 10-5 as a division home chalk.
The over for Pittsburgh is on stretches of 6-1 against AFC opponents, 4-1 in division play and 5-2 after a SU win, and the over for Baltimore is on streaks of 6-1-1 overall, 4-0 in the division, 14-3-1 on grass, 13-3 against the AFC and 7-3 at home. Finally, the over has hit in four straight meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and OVER
Denver (8-5, 5-8 ATS) at Carolina (10-3, 7-4-2 ATS)
The Panthers, who are now in control of their destiny in the NFC South and are angling for a shot at home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, play host to the Broncos in a non-conference contest at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina dropped Tampa Bay 38-23 on Monday night as a three-point home favorite, moving to 6-1 SU in the last seven games (4-3 ATS). RBs DeAngelo Williams (19 carries, 186 yards, 2 TDs) and Jonathan Stewart (15 carries, 115 yards, 2 TDs) went haywire as the Panthers racked up 299 rushing yards, more than making up for two INTs from Jake Delhomme (14 of 20, 173 yards, 1 TD). Carolina outscored Tampa 21-6 in the fourth quarter.
Denver held off Kansas City 24-17 as a nine-point home choice for its fourth win in the last five games (3-2 ATS). QB Jay Cutler (32 of 40, 286 yards, 2 TDs) bounced back after having an early INT returned for a score, and the Broncos made a goal-line stand with just under five minutes left, then ran out the clock from there. Denver, which can clinch the AFC West with a win today, finished with a huge 425-260 edge in total yards and a 13-minute bulge in time of possession.
The last time these squads met was in 2004, when Denver won 20-17, but Carolina covered as a 4½-point road ‘dog.
The Panthers are on ATS surges of 4-0 in December, 7-2-1 at home, 7-2-1 as a favorite, 10-3-1 on grass and 5-2-1 as a home chalk. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a ‘dog, but are otherwise on ATS slides of 10-26-1 overall, 2-7 on grass, 2-6 in December, 7-19-1 after a SU win and 5-12 against winning teams.
The over for Carolina is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on grass and 9-3 in December. The over for Denver is on streaks of 9-2-2 with the Broncos a ‘dog, 4-1-1 on the road, 20-8-1 on grass and 7-3-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and OVER
San Diego (5-8, 5-7-1 ATS) at Kansas City (2-10, 7-6 ATS)
The Chargers, needing a win today and a Broncos loss at Carolina to keep their AFC West hopes alive, head to Arrowhead Stadium for a divisional meeting with the Chiefs.
San Diego pounded Oakland 34-7 as a 9½-point home favorite last Thursday to halt a three-game SU slide and a two-game ATS skid in a Thursday night contest. QB Philip Rivers (10 of 22, 214 yards, 3 TDs) made the most of a limited number of completions, with WR Vincent Jackson (5 catches, 148 yards, 1 TD) the primary target, and the Chargers gained 372 total yards while allowing just 163. San Diego also won the turnover battle 4-1.
Kansas City fell short to Denver 24-17 but still cashed as a nine-point road pup. QB Tyler Thigpen (17 of 32, 187 yards, 1 TD) led a turnover-free offense, but the Chiefs were outgained 425-260, had a time-of-possession deficit of 13 minutes, and Thigpen was stopped on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line with under five minutes remaining.
These squads have alternated ATS wins and losses over the last five games in this rivalry, with San Diego winning 20-19 last month, but K.C. cashing as a heavy 14½-point underdog. The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 clashes, and the Chiefs are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings at Arrowhead.
The Chargers are on a 2-5 ATS slide, but they are on pointspread streaks of 6-0 in December, 17-5-1 against the AFC, 20-6-4 in division play and 7-3-1 on the road. The Chiefs are on a 2-9 ATS nosedive at home, but they carry positive ATS trends of 5-2 overall and 4-0 in the AFC West.
The under for San Diego is on runs of 4-0-1 overall and 6-0-1 against AFC foes, and the under for Kansas City is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-0 against losing teams and 4-1 in the division. And in this rivalry, the total has gone low in six of the last eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Minnesota (8-5, 5-8 ATS) at Arizona (8-5 SU and ATS)
The Vikings look to firm up their playoff position at University of Phoenix Stadium against the Cardinals, who have already clinched the NFC West.
Minnesota barely beat winless Detroit 20-16 as a 10½-point road favorite to post its third straight victory (2-1 ATS), scoring 10 fourth-quarter points to dodge the upset. QB Gus Frerotte (7 of 10, 70 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) left after the first half with a back injury, and Tarvaris Jackson (8 of 10, 105 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) effectively finished up, aided by RB Adrian Peterson’s efforts (22 carries, 105 yards).
Arizona drilled St. Louis 34-10 as a 14-point home chalk to halt a two-game SU and ATS hiccup. QB Kurt Warner (24 of 33, 279 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was solid, and the Cards won the turnover battle 3-1, with Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie taking an INT 99 yards for a score and DT Darnell Dockett running in an 11-yard fumble return.
Arizona has cashed in the last two meetings with Minnesota, most recently in a 31-26 road loss as a 6½-point pup in 2006. The Vikings, however, are 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests.
The Vikings are on nothing but negative pointspread streaks, including 5-11 overall, 0-4 in December, 1-8 after a SU win, 2-6 on the road and 3-6 as a road ‘dog. The Cardinals are on ATS runs of 7-1 as a favorite, 4-1 as a home chalk, 9-3 against winning teams and 6-3 hosting non-division opponents.
The over for Minnesota is on rolls of 5-2 overall, 6-1 with the Vikes a road ‘dog and 17-5-2 after a non-cover, and the over for Arizona is on tears of 25-10 overall, 7-1 at home, 11-2 in December and 13-3 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
New England (8-5, 6-7 ATS) at Oakland (4-9, 4-8-1 ATS)
The Patriots, needing a win to stay in the race for the AFC East title, are on the West Coast for the second straight week when they take on the Raiders at McAfee Coliseum.
New England edged Seattle 24-21 as a seven-point road chalk, failing to cash for the second straight week. The Patriots trailed 21-13 after three quarters, but QB Matt Cassel (26 of 44, 268 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) led two fourth-quarter scoring drives to seal the win, and WR Wesley Welker (12 receptions, 134 yards) had a big day.
Oakland got blasted by San Diego 34-7 as a 9½-point road pup in a Thursday game, falling to 1-6 SU in its last seven games (2-5 ATS). QB JaMarcus Russell (9 of 13, 68 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) was awful before exiting in the second quarter with a sprained ankle, and Andrew Walter (8 of 17, 61 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) wasn’t much better as the Raiders netted just 163 yards while turning the ball over for times. The Chargers had 372 yards and just one turnover.
These teams have met three times this decade, with New England winning the most recent clash in 2005, 30-20 as a 7½-point home favorite.
The Patriots sport positive ATS streaks of 21-9 on the road, 15-5 as a road favorite and 5-1 after a non-cover, but they are on ATS slides of 6-13 overall, 0-4 in December, 1-7 against losing teams and 3-13 after a SU win. The Raiders are on numerous pointspread declines, including 6-20 at home, 8-23 against non-division opponents, 15-36 in December, 18-40-1 after a non-cover and 22-46-1 after a SU loss.
The over for New England is on runs of 4-0 overall and 6-1 with the Pats a road favorite, but the under for Oakland is on stretches of 5-0-1 overall, 4-0 at the coliseum, 9-4 with the Raiders a home ‘dog and 46-22-5 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
N.Y. Giants (11-2, 10-3 ATS) at Dallas (8-5, 6-7 ATS)
The Giants, who have clinched the NFC East title and now set their sights on home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, travel to Texas Stadium to take on the hated Cowboys in a Sunday night clash.
New York tumbled to Philadelphia 20-14 as a 6½-point home chalk, snapping a seven-game SU and ATS run, though the SU winner is now 23-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 25 games (12-1 ATS this season). QB Eli Manning (13 of 27, 123 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was way off his game, even though New York had no turnovers, and the Giants only made it mildly respectable by scoring a TD with just 20 seconds remaining.
Dallas had Pittsburgh bottled up with a 13-3 fourth-quarter lead before falling apart late in a 20-13 loss as a four-point road ‘dog. QB Tony Romo (19 of 36, 210 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs) accounted for four of the Cowboys’ five turnovers, including a deadly INT returned for the touchdown that put Pittsburgh up 20-13 with less than two minutes remaining.
New York has won and covered in the last two clashes between these division rivals, including a 35-14 shellacking as a 9½-points home chalk last month. The Giants are 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 contests, and the favorite is on a 5-2-2 ATS run.
The Giants carry a bundle of ATS hot streaks, including 24-7 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 8-0 as a road ‘dog, 5-0 after a non-cover, 14-2 against winning teams and 22-6 on the highway. The Cowboys have cashed in four straight as a favorite and are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a SU loss, but they are in ATS ruts of 0-7 in December, 1-7 in the NFC East, 3-7 after a non-cover and 3-7 against winning teams.
The under for New York is on upticks of 6-2 in the division and 6-2 with the Giants a road pup, and the under for Dallas is on runs of 4-0 in December, 9-3 after an ATS setback and 5-2 after a SU loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six contests, but the under is 9-4 in the last 13 matchups in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Green Bay (5-8, 7-6 ATS) at Jacksonville (4-9, 3-10 ATS)
Two teams whose seasons are surprisingly all but over square off when the Packers travel to Alltel Stadium to meet the Jaguars.
Green Bay tumbled to Houston 24-21 as a seven-point home favorite, losing on Kris Brown’s 40-yard field goal for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Aaron Rodgers (295 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and RB Ryan Grant (104 yards rushing, 1 TD) were solid, and Green Bay won the turnover battle 4-1. But the Packers allowed a whopping 549 total yards, with Falcons QB Matt Schaub (28 of 42, 414 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) and RB Steve Slaton (26 carries, 120 yards) doing most of the damage.
Jacksonville lost to Chicago 23-10 as a 6½-point road underdog to fall to 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four starts, and the SU winner is now on a 9-0 ATS tear for the Jags. It was an evenly played game, with Jacksonville outgained by just 18 yards (296-278) and both teams committing one turnover, but the Jaguars trailed 20-3 at halftime and didn’t get into the end zone until the fourth quarter.
These squads haven’t met in the regular season since 2004, when Jacksonville won 28-25 as a four-point road pup.
Despite their current woes, the Packers remain on positive ATS streaks of 21-10-1 overall, 13-4-1 on the road, 4-1 as a road chalk, 7-2 against losing teams and 8-4-1 visiting AFC teams. The Jaguars are on ATS runs of 9-4 at home against the NFC and 8-3-1 as a home pup, but the trends turn downward from there, including 0-6 at Alltel, 1-12 on grass and 1-5 against losing teams.
The over is on several runs for Green Bay, including 22-7-1 overall, 12-2 with the Pack favored, 7-2-1 after a SU loss and 39-19-2 on the road. On the flip side, the under for Jacksonville is on stretches of 5-2-1 overall, 8-3 with the Jags a home pup and 4-0 overall with the Jags getting points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Detroit (0-13, 5-8 ATS) at Indianapolis (9-4, 6-7 ATS)
The streaking Colts look to take a step closer to securing a wild-card berth when they host the hapless Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis ripped Cincinnati 35-3 to cash as a heavy 13½-point home chalk for its sixth consecutive victory (3-3 ATS). QB Peyton Manning (26 of 32, 277 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was solid, and the Colts defense allowed just 252 yards while winning the turnover battle 4-1, including Kelvin Hayden’s 85-yard INT return for a TD in the fourth quarter.
Detroit fell short to Minnesota 20-16 as a 10½-point home underdog, ending a two-game ATS skid but still falling to 1-20 SU and 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games. QB Daunte Culpepper (14 of 24, 220 yards, 1 TD) was steady in leading a turnover-free effort, but the Lions couldn’t take advantage of a 13-10 fourth-quarter lead nor a 2-0 edge in the turnover battle.
In two meetings this decade, Indy is 2-0 SU and ATS against Detroit, most recently winning 41-9 as a 9½-point road chalk in 2004.
The Colts are on ATS skids of 1-7-1 after a spread-cover, 2-6 at home and 4-9 in December, but they are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 games against NFC foes. The Lions are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games catching points, but they have cashed in their last four road games, all as a double-digit chalk, and they are on a 10-1 ATS run as a pup of more than 10 points.
The under for Indianapolis is on a 4-1 run with the Colts a home chalk of more than 10 points. But the over for Detroit is on rolls of 16-5-1 overall, 9-1-1 against winning teams, 7-1-1 in December, 8-2 on the road and 10-2 with the Lions a ‘dog of more than 10.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Washington (7-6, 5-7-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (1-11-1, 4-9 ATS)
The Redskins will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive when they head to Paul Brown Stadium to take on the woeful Bengals.
Washington lost to Baltimore 24-10 as a six-point road pup, falling to 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games, and the SU winner is now on an 18-1-1 ATS tear in the Redskins’ last 20 games (11-1-1 ATS this season). QB Jason Campbell (21 of 37, 218 yards, 1 TD) threw a pair of INTs, and Ravens DB Ed Reed ran a Clinton Portis fumble back for a TD.
Cincinnati got pounded by Indianapolis 35-3 catching 13½ points on the road, losing SU and ATS for the third straight week. QB Ryan Fitzgerald (18 of 26, 170 yards, 0 TDs) had two INTs, with one returned 85 yards for a TD, and he also lost a fumble as the Bengals committed four turnovers while forcing just one.
Cincinnati won the only meeting this decade between these two teams, 17-10 getting four points on the road in 2004.
The Redskins are on ATS slides of 0-7-1 against the AFC, 3-7 as a non-division chalk and 3-11-2 against losing teams, though they have gone 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven roadies. The Bengals have nothing but negative ATS trends, including 2-6 overall, 3-8 as a home ‘dog, 1-5 after a SU loss, 1-4 after a non-cover and 2-5 in December.
The under for Washington is on tears of 8-0-1 overall, 5-0-1 with the Redskins favored, 5-1 on grass and 4-1-1 on the road, and the under for Cincinnati is on streaks of 6-1 in December, 6-2-1 at home and 9-4-1 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tampa Bay (9-4, 7-6 ATS) at Atlanta (8-5 SU and ATS)
Two NFC South rivals looking to keep pace in the postseason chase get together when the Buccaneers travel to the Georgia Dome to face the Falcons.
Tampa Bay tumbled to Carolina 38-23 Monday night as a three-point road ‘dog, ending a four-game SU win streak as the Bucs failed to cover for the second straight week. QB Jeff Garcia (24 of 38, 321 yards, 2 TDs) was solid in leading a turnover-free offense, and Tampa forced two turnovers, but it also allowed 464 yards – including a whopping 299 rushing yards -- and gave up three fourth-quarter touchdowns.
Atlanta lost to New Orleans 29-25 as a three-point road pup, ending a two-game SU and ATS surge. QB Matt Ryan (24 of 33, 315 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was fairly effective, and both teams finished with 414 total yards, but Ryan’s INT – the only turnover of the game – was converted into the first TD of the game by the Saints and ultimately proved the difference.
The SU winner is now 21-1 in the Falcons’ last 22 games, including a perfect 13-0 ATS this season.
Tampa is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run against Atlanta, including a 24-9 home win as a seven-point home chalk in September, and is on further pointspread runs in this rivalry of 6-2 at the Georgia Dome and 11-5 overall. The favorite has cashed in the last five clashes between these two.
The Buccaneers are on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 1-5 as a ‘dog of three points or less, 1-4 in December and 2-5 following a non-cover. The Falcons are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight division contests, but they are on pointspread streaks of 7-2 as a chalk, 6-0 after a SU loss, 5-0 after an ATS setback and 6-1 at home.
The over for Tampa Bay is on stretches of 4-0 on field turf, 6-0 in December and 9-2 on the road, and the over for Atlanta is on runs of 8-2 at home, 6-0 in December, 9-1 after a SU loss, 9-2 on field turf and 6-2 in NFC South play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
San Francisco (5-8, 6-7 ATS) at Miami (8-5, 6-7 ATS)
The Dolphins, who are in a three-way logjam for first in the AFC East just a season after winning one game, step out of the AFC to take on the surging 49ers.
Miami dropped Buffalo 16-3 in Toronto as a one-point “road” underdog for its second straight win, halting a four-game ATS tailspin in the process. QB Chad Pennington (23 of 29, 181 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) didn’t light it up, nor did he need to, as the Dolphins won the turnover battle 2-0, allowed just 163 total yards while gaining 295, and had a 15-minute advantage in time of possession (37:31-22:29).
San Francisco knocked off the Jets 24-14 catching four points at home for its second straight win and cover, giving the SU winner a 23-1 ATS record in the Niners’ last 24 games (12-1 ATS this year). QB Shaun Hill (28 of 39, 285 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) helped San Fran outscore New York 10-0 in the fourth quarter, and the defense held New York to a stifling 182 total yards as the 49ers nearly doubled the Jets in time of possession (39:49-20:11).
These two squads have met twice this decade, both times by the Bay, and each has gone 1-1 SU and ATS. Most recently, Miami won 24-17 as a one-point pup in 2004.
Despite their 8-5 SU mark, the Dolphins are on a bevy of ATS freefalls, including 5-21 as a favorite, 7-22-1 against losing teams, 12-32-1 at home and 1-5 against the NFC. The 49ers have cashed in four of their last five starts, but they also carry several negative ATS trends, including 9-24-1 in the Eastern Time Zone, 5-12 as a non-division ‘dog and 4-9 on the highway.
The under for Miami is on runs of 6-1 overall, 4-0 with the Dolphins favored, 10-2 after a SU win and 5-2 at home, but the over for San Francisco is on upticks of 4-1 on grass and 7-3-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Seattle (2-11, 5-8-1 ATS) at St. Louis (2-11, 4-9 ATS)
In a battle of squads mired in the NFC West basement meet at the Edward Jones Dome, with the Rams trying to end a seven-game losing skid overall and a seven-game skid to Seattle when they host the Seahawks.
Seattle couldn’t quite pull off the upset of New England, losing 24-21 as a seven-point home ‘dog for its sixth consecutive SU setback (2-3-1 ATS), though the Seahawks did cover for the first time in a month. QB Seneca Wallace (20 of 28, 212 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) helped Seattle take a 21-13 lead into the fourth quarter, but the Pats put up 11 points in the final frame and sealed the game by recovering a Wallace fumble late.
St. Louis got rolled at Arizona 34-10 as a heavy 14-point pup for its seventh straight loss (2-5 ATS). QB Marc Bulger (22 of 37, 228 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had decent stats, but turnovers killed the Rams, as they gave the ball away three times, with DB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie returning a pick 99 yards for a TD and DT Darnell Dockett returning a fumble 11 yards for a score.
Seattle is on a 7-0 SU run (5-2 ATS) in this NFC West rivalry, winning and cashing in the last three contests, including a 37-13 home rout in September as a nine-point home favorite.
The Seahawks actually sport a few positive ATS streaks, including 7-2 inside the division, 6-2 in December and 9-4-1 after a SU loss, but they are on pointspread slides of 2-8 as a road chalk and 1-7 after a spread-cover. The Rams, meanwhile, have nothing but negative ATS trends to speak of, most notably 1-5 overall, 0-4 in December, 0-6 in division play, 2-6 at home and 8-20 getting points.
The under for Seattle is on runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against NFC foes and 4-1 after a SU loss, and the under for St. Louis is on a 5-2 run, but the over for the Rams is on stretches of 4-1 against losing teams 9-3 in December and 9-4 with St. Louis a home pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Buffalo (6-7, 5-8 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (8-5, 7-6 ATS)
The suddenly slumping Jets hope to remain in the playoff hunt when they welcome the AFC East rival Bills to the Meadowlands.
New York went to San Francisco last week and got stung 24-14 as a four-point road chalk, losing SU and ATS for the second straight week following a 5-0 SU run (4-1 ATS). QB Brett Favre (20 of 31, 137 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had an awful day, capped by the INT he threw late in the fourth quarter to seal the Jets’ fate. New York was outscored 10-0 in the fourth quarter and finished the day with a meager 182 total yards and just 20 minutes time of possession.
Buffalo continued its freefall with a 16-3 “home” loss to Miami in Toronto, where the Bills were a one-point favorite but dropped to 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games. QB J.P. Losman (13 of 27, 123 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) had a weak outing in relief of the injured Trent Edwards, losing one of his three fumbles to go along with his INT. The Bills gained just 163 total yards – while allowing 295 – and had a 15-minute time-of-possession deficit.
Buffalo is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, but the one loss came last month when New York posted a 26-17 road win catching five points. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes, the underdog is on a 6-0 ATS surge and the road team has cashed in four of the last five contests.
The Jets are on ATS surges of 1-4 as a favorite, 1-4 after a SU loss and 3-9 against losing teams, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last six division contests. The Bills are on a 6-2 ATS run as a division road ‘dog, but they are otherwise on pointspread declines of 0-4 in division play, 0-7 against winning teams and 2-5 as an underdog.
The over for New York is on runs of 5-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 against the AFC and 4-1 at home, but the under for Buffalo is on rolls of 5-2-1 overall, 6-1 with the Bills a road ‘dog and 6-2-1 inside the division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Tennessee (12-1, 11-2 ATS) at Houston (6-7 SU and ATS)
The Titans, on the brink of securing home-field advantage for the playoffs, head to Reliant Stadium looking for their eighth straight win over the resurgent Texans.
Tennessee rolled past Cleveland 28-9 as a healthy 14-point home chalk for its second straight win and cover, and the SU winner is now 12-1 in the Titans’ 13 games this season. RBs Chris Johnson (19 carries, 136 yards, 1 TD) and LenDale White (24 carries, 99 yards, 1 TD) combined for 235 yards rushing, helping offset two INTs from QB Kerry Collins (14 of 23, 155 yards, 2 TDs), and the Titans defense allowed just 178 yards.
Houston stunned Green Bay 24-21 as a seven-point road pup for its third straight win and fourth straight cover. QB Matt Schaub (28 of 42, 414 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a monster day, which help the Texans overcome a 4-1 turnover deficit. RB Steve Slaton (26 carries, 120 yards) also came up big, and Kris Brown hit a 40-yard field goal as time expired to give Houston the upset win.
Tennessee is on a 7-0 SU run (6-1 ATS) in this AFC South rivalry, including a 31-12 home rout as a 4½-point home favorite in Week 3, and the Titans have cashed in the last five in a row. However, the underdog is on a 7-3 ATS run in the last 10 contests.
Along with their 11-2 ATS mark this season, the Titans are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 14-2 in division play, 17-5 in roadies, 7-0 against losing teams, 10-2 after a SU win, 10-2 as a favorite and 8-3 in December. The Texans are on ATS skids of 2-5 as a division home dog and 3-7 against winning teams, but they are on spread-covering upticks of 6-1 getting points at home, 5-1 in December and 12-4 at Reliant against teams with a winning road record.
The over for Tennessee is on tears of 5-1 against losing teams, 4-1 against the AFC and 7-2-1 in December, and the over for Houston is on streaks of 11-4 overall, 7-2 with the Texans a pup, 20-7 inside the division and 19-7 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 5-0 overall and 5-0 in Houston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Pittsburgh (10-3, 7-6 ATS) at Baltimore (9-4, 10-3 ATS)
First place in the AFC North is on the line at M&T Bank Stadium, where the Ravens host the Steelers in a clash of bitter rivals.
Pittsburgh rallied to beat Dallas 20-13 as a four-point home chalk and has now won four in a row (3-1 ATS). The Steelers trailed 20-3 entering the fourth quarter, but QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 33, 204 yards, 1 TD) led a FG drive and TD drive to tie it late in the fourth quarter, and CB Deshea Townsend ran back a Tony Romo INT for the winning TD with 1:40 remaining. Pittsburgh was dominated in most phases, but winning the turnover battle 5-2 proved the difference.
Baltimore dropped Washington 24-10 as a six-point home favorite, and the SU winner is now 22-2 ATS in the Ravens’ last 24 games (12-1 ATS this season). QB Joe Flacco (10 of 21, 134 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a mediocre effort, but the Ravens won the turnover battle 3-2, with Ed Reed picking off Jason Campbell twice and returning a Clinton Portis fumble for a touchdown.
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS (4-3 SU) in the last seven clashes between these rivals, covering as a six-point road ‘dog in a 23-20 overtime loss in September. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Baltimore, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests overall.
The Steelers are on ATS tears of 4-0 on the highway, 9-3 as a division road pup, 5-2 after a SU win and 10-4 in December. Likewise, the Ravens are on a bevy of pointstread rolls, including 7-1 overall, 5-0 as a favorite, 6-0 in the AFC North, 6-1 at home, 9-4 in December and 10-5 as a division home chalk.
The over for Pittsburgh is on stretches of 6-1 against AFC opponents, 4-1 in division play and 5-2 after a SU win, and the over for Baltimore is on streaks of 6-1-1 overall, 4-0 in the division, 14-3-1 on grass, 13-3 against the AFC and 7-3 at home. Finally, the over has hit in four straight meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and OVER
Denver (8-5, 5-8 ATS) at Carolina (10-3, 7-4-2 ATS)
The Panthers, who are now in control of their destiny in the NFC South and are angling for a shot at home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, play host to the Broncos in a non-conference contest at Bank of America Stadium.
Carolina dropped Tampa Bay 38-23 on Monday night as a three-point home favorite, moving to 6-1 SU in the last seven games (4-3 ATS). RBs DeAngelo Williams (19 carries, 186 yards, 2 TDs) and Jonathan Stewart (15 carries, 115 yards, 2 TDs) went haywire as the Panthers racked up 299 rushing yards, more than making up for two INTs from Jake Delhomme (14 of 20, 173 yards, 1 TD). Carolina outscored Tampa 21-6 in the fourth quarter.
Denver held off Kansas City 24-17 as a nine-point home choice for its fourth win in the last five games (3-2 ATS). QB Jay Cutler (32 of 40, 286 yards, 2 TDs) bounced back after having an early INT returned for a score, and the Broncos made a goal-line stand with just under five minutes left, then ran out the clock from there. Denver, which can clinch the AFC West with a win today, finished with a huge 425-260 edge in total yards and a 13-minute bulge in time of possession.
The last time these squads met was in 2004, when Denver won 20-17, but Carolina covered as a 4½-point road ‘dog.
The Panthers are on ATS surges of 4-0 in December, 7-2-1 at home, 7-2-1 as a favorite, 10-3-1 on grass and 5-2-1 as a home chalk. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a ‘dog, but are otherwise on ATS slides of 10-26-1 overall, 2-7 on grass, 2-6 in December, 7-19-1 after a SU win and 5-12 against winning teams.
The over for Carolina is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on grass and 9-3 in December. The over for Denver is on streaks of 9-2-2 with the Broncos a ‘dog, 4-1-1 on the road, 20-8-1 on grass and 7-3-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and OVER
San Diego (5-8, 5-7-1 ATS) at Kansas City (2-10, 7-6 ATS)
The Chargers, needing a win today and a Broncos loss at Carolina to keep their AFC West hopes alive, head to Arrowhead Stadium for a divisional meeting with the Chiefs.
San Diego pounded Oakland 34-7 as a 9½-point home favorite last Thursday to halt a three-game SU slide and a two-game ATS skid in a Thursday night contest. QB Philip Rivers (10 of 22, 214 yards, 3 TDs) made the most of a limited number of completions, with WR Vincent Jackson (5 catches, 148 yards, 1 TD) the primary target, and the Chargers gained 372 total yards while allowing just 163. San Diego also won the turnover battle 4-1.
Kansas City fell short to Denver 24-17 but still cashed as a nine-point road pup. QB Tyler Thigpen (17 of 32, 187 yards, 1 TD) led a turnover-free offense, but the Chiefs were outgained 425-260, had a time-of-possession deficit of 13 minutes, and Thigpen was stopped on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line with under five minutes remaining.
These squads have alternated ATS wins and losses over the last five games in this rivalry, with San Diego winning 20-19 last month, but K.C. cashing as a heavy 14½-point underdog. The underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 clashes, and the Chiefs are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings at Arrowhead.
The Chargers are on a 2-5 ATS slide, but they are on pointspread streaks of 6-0 in December, 17-5-1 against the AFC, 20-6-4 in division play and 7-3-1 on the road. The Chiefs are on a 2-9 ATS nosedive at home, but they carry positive ATS trends of 5-2 overall and 4-0 in the AFC West.
The under for San Diego is on runs of 4-0-1 overall and 6-0-1 against AFC foes, and the under for Kansas City is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 5-0 against losing teams and 4-1 in the division. And in this rivalry, the total has gone low in six of the last eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Minnesota (8-5, 5-8 ATS) at Arizona (8-5 SU and ATS)
The Vikings look to firm up their playoff position at University of Phoenix Stadium against the Cardinals, who have already clinched the NFC West.
Minnesota barely beat winless Detroit 20-16 as a 10½-point road favorite to post its third straight victory (2-1 ATS), scoring 10 fourth-quarter points to dodge the upset. QB Gus Frerotte (7 of 10, 70 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) left after the first half with a back injury, and Tarvaris Jackson (8 of 10, 105 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) effectively finished up, aided by RB Adrian Peterson’s efforts (22 carries, 105 yards).
Arizona drilled St. Louis 34-10 as a 14-point home chalk to halt a two-game SU and ATS hiccup. QB Kurt Warner (24 of 33, 279 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was solid, and the Cards won the turnover battle 3-1, with Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie taking an INT 99 yards for a score and DT Darnell Dockett running in an 11-yard fumble return.
Arizona has cashed in the last two meetings with Minnesota, most recently in a 31-26 road loss as a 6½-point pup in 2006. The Vikings, however, are 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests.
The Vikings are on nothing but negative pointspread streaks, including 5-11 overall, 0-4 in December, 1-8 after a SU win, 2-6 on the road and 3-6 as a road ‘dog. The Cardinals are on ATS runs of 7-1 as a favorite, 4-1 as a home chalk, 9-3 against winning teams and 6-3 hosting non-division opponents.
The over for Minnesota is on rolls of 5-2 overall, 6-1 with the Vikes a road ‘dog and 17-5-2 after a non-cover, and the over for Arizona is on tears of 25-10 overall, 7-1 at home, 11-2 in December and 13-3 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
New England (8-5, 6-7 ATS) at Oakland (4-9, 4-8-1 ATS)
The Patriots, needing a win to stay in the race for the AFC East title, are on the West Coast for the second straight week when they take on the Raiders at McAfee Coliseum.
New England edged Seattle 24-21 as a seven-point road chalk, failing to cash for the second straight week. The Patriots trailed 21-13 after three quarters, but QB Matt Cassel (26 of 44, 268 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) led two fourth-quarter scoring drives to seal the win, and WR Wesley Welker (12 receptions, 134 yards) had a big day.
Oakland got blasted by San Diego 34-7 as a 9½-point road pup in a Thursday game, falling to 1-6 SU in its last seven games (2-5 ATS). QB JaMarcus Russell (9 of 13, 68 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) was awful before exiting in the second quarter with a sprained ankle, and Andrew Walter (8 of 17, 61 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) wasn’t much better as the Raiders netted just 163 yards while turning the ball over for times. The Chargers had 372 yards and just one turnover.
These teams have met three times this decade, with New England winning the most recent clash in 2005, 30-20 as a 7½-point home favorite.
The Patriots sport positive ATS streaks of 21-9 on the road, 15-5 as a road favorite and 5-1 after a non-cover, but they are on ATS slides of 6-13 overall, 0-4 in December, 1-7 against losing teams and 3-13 after a SU win. The Raiders are on numerous pointspread declines, including 6-20 at home, 8-23 against non-division opponents, 15-36 in December, 18-40-1 after a non-cover and 22-46-1 after a SU loss.
The over for New England is on runs of 4-0 overall and 6-1 with the Pats a road favorite, but the under for Oakland is on stretches of 5-0-1 overall, 4-0 at the coliseum, 9-4 with the Raiders a home ‘dog and 46-22-5 after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
N.Y. Giants (11-2, 10-3 ATS) at Dallas (8-5, 6-7 ATS)
The Giants, who have clinched the NFC East title and now set their sights on home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, travel to Texas Stadium to take on the hated Cowboys in a Sunday night clash.
New York tumbled to Philadelphia 20-14 as a 6½-point home chalk, snapping a seven-game SU and ATS run, though the SU winner is now 23-2 ATS in the Giants’ last 25 games (12-1 ATS this season). QB Eli Manning (13 of 27, 123 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was way off his game, even though New York had no turnovers, and the Giants only made it mildly respectable by scoring a TD with just 20 seconds remaining.
Dallas had Pittsburgh bottled up with a 13-3 fourth-quarter lead before falling apart late in a 20-13 loss as a four-point road ‘dog. QB Tony Romo (19 of 36, 210 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs) accounted for four of the Cowboys’ five turnovers, including a deadly INT returned for the touchdown that put Pittsburgh up 20-13 with less than two minutes remaining.
New York has won and covered in the last two clashes between these division rivals, including a 35-14 shellacking as a 9½-points home chalk last month. The Giants are 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 contests, and the favorite is on a 5-2-2 ATS run.
The Giants carry a bundle of ATS hot streaks, including 24-7 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 8-0 as a road ‘dog, 5-0 after a non-cover, 14-2 against winning teams and 22-6 on the highway. The Cowboys have cashed in four straight as a favorite and are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games following a SU loss, but they are in ATS ruts of 0-7 in December, 1-7 in the NFC East, 3-7 after a non-cover and 3-7 against winning teams.
The under for New York is on upticks of 6-2 in the division and 6-2 with the Giants a road pup, and the under for Dallas is on runs of 4-0 in December, 9-3 after an ATS setback and 5-2 after a SU loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six contests, but the under is 9-4 in the last 13 matchups in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
GINA
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Don't know why the Titans continue their winning ways, perhaps playing sound defense. Tennessee is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games and have won and covered the spread in the last five meetings versus the Texans, including a 31-12 victory at home in Week 3. Go with the Titans.
Tennessee Titans -3
New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders
The Patriots have struggle on the West Coast this season, but Oakland has struggle everywhere. Go with the limping Patriots to give the lifeless Raiders their seventh straight lost in a low scoring battle.
New England Patriots -7 & Under -40
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Don't know why the Titans continue their winning ways, perhaps playing sound defense. Tennessee is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games and have won and covered the spread in the last five meetings versus the Texans, including a 31-12 victory at home in Week 3. Go with the Titans.
Tennessee Titans -3
New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders
The Patriots have struggle on the West Coast this season, but Oakland has struggle everywhere. Go with the limping Patriots to give the lifeless Raiders their seventh straight lost in a low scoring battle.
New England Patriots -7 & Under -40
Johnny Guild
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
Manning and his crew hammered the Lions in the last meeting four years ago in Detroit, a 41-9 victory. Expect a similar outcome again. Detroit’s woeful defense is allowing 386 yards per-game, rush defense allowing 173 yards a game. Take the Colts to pound the winless Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium and grab their seventh straight victory. The line is huge at 17 and Indianapolis has not been lucrative against the spread, but they are a much better team and should easily outscore the pitiable Detroit Lions.
Indianapolis Colts -17
New York Jets -7.5
Miami Dolphins -6
Arizona Cardinals -3
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts
Manning and his crew hammered the Lions in the last meeting four years ago in Detroit, a 41-9 victory. Expect a similar outcome again. Detroit’s woeful defense is allowing 386 yards per-game, rush defense allowing 173 yards a game. Take the Colts to pound the winless Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium and grab their seventh straight victory. The line is huge at 17 and Indianapolis has not been lucrative against the spread, but they are a much better team and should easily outscore the pitiable Detroit Lions.
Indianapolis Colts -17
New York Jets -7.5
Miami Dolphins -6
Arizona Cardinals -3
VEGAS EXPERTS
Gonzaga at Arizona
Sunday, December 14th, 6:00 ET
In their last game, the 'Zags just drilled another Pac 10 team on the road, shockingly beating Washington State by 22 in Pullman. They are still not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers despite that beatdown. Only Tennessee, who is much better than Arizona, has stayed within nine points of Gonzaga this season and that was on a neutral court! They've covered five of six this year, all as a favorite, so this short number is nothing.
Play on: Gonzaga
Gonzaga at Arizona
Sunday, December 14th, 6:00 ET
In their last game, the 'Zags just drilled another Pac 10 team on the road, shockingly beating Washington State by 22 in Pullman. They are still not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers despite that beatdown. Only Tennessee, who is much better than Arizona, has stayed within nine points of Gonzaga this season and that was on a neutral court! They've covered five of six this year, all as a favorite, so this short number is nothing.
Play on: Gonzaga
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