SharpFootballAnalysis
I have been following this guy for 8 weeks. He only Capps NFL. He used to post his info for free and provide an email to his followers. A few weeks ago he decided to charge for his info - His plays and research are great and his price was cheap so I bought the rest of the season. I will post his plays. His overs are his best plays 9-3 this season 30-4 the last 2 seasons. His unders are 27-12-2 YTD. He had no over plays the last two weeks but his unders went 4-1 last Sunday and 4-0 the week before. His sides are 41-20-1 YTD.
I can vouch for the last 8 weeks - he is awesome!
He updates info up to the last minute depending on weather so keep an eye out and I will provide any updates.
This weeks Over plays - Ravens/Pitts and Jets/Bills
This weeks Under plays - Detroit/Indy, Seattle/St.Louis, SD/KC
This weeks ATS plays - Balt, KC, Giants
I showed CPAW the site to authenticate for everyone - Good Luck! I'll be on the over plays hard and med-light on everything else. BTW, If Budin is against him, it is a no brainer - I follow Budin. :money:
I have been following this guy for 8 weeks. He only Capps NFL. He used to post his info for free and provide an email to his followers. A few weeks ago he decided to charge for his info - His plays and research are great and his price was cheap so I bought the rest of the season. I will post his plays. His overs are his best plays 9-3 this season 30-4 the last 2 seasons. His unders are 27-12-2 YTD. He had no over plays the last two weeks but his unders went 4-1 last Sunday and 4-0 the week before. His sides are 41-20-1 YTD.
I can vouch for the last 8 weeks - he is awesome!
He updates info up to the last minute depending on weather so keep an eye out and I will provide any updates.
This weeks Over plays - Ravens/Pitts and Jets/Bills
This weeks Under plays - Detroit/Indy, Seattle/St.Louis, SD/KC
This weeks ATS plays - Balt, KC, Giants
I showed CPAW the site to authenticate for everyone - Good Luck! I'll be on the over plays hard and med-light on everything else. BTW, If Budin is against him, it is a no brainer - I follow Budin. :money:
I WAS CERTAIN SOMEONE ASKED FOR THIS.......BUT I CAN'T FIND IT.
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DOC'S Game of the Year
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs
Your pick will be graded at: 6 Belmont
EXPERT: DOCS Sports
TITLE: NFL Game of the Year
REASON FOR PICK: 5 Unit Play. #18 Take Kansas City Chiefs +5 over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) Pro Game of the Year. The Chargers are overrated, enough said! They are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL and there is not a chance they warrant to be laying points on the road. The Chiefs play Denver tough last week on the road and lost to the Chargers earlier this season by just one point, 20-19, despite being a 14 ½ point underdog. Kansas City has finally settler on a quarterback in Tyler Thigpen and he does have some receiving weapons to work with in Bowe and Gonzalez. The Chargers have never recovered for the botched call earlier this season and they cannot wait for this season to end. The Chiefs are playing for their coaches and the players are playing for their jobs next season. They win this game straight-up and getting points in a bonus. Kansas City 27, San Diego 24.
................................................
DOC'S Game of the Year
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs
Your pick will be graded at: 6 Belmont
EXPERT: DOCS Sports
TITLE: NFL Game of the Year
REASON FOR PICK: 5 Unit Play. #18 Take Kansas City Chiefs +5 over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) Pro Game of the Year. The Chargers are overrated, enough said! They are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL and there is not a chance they warrant to be laying points on the road. The Chiefs play Denver tough last week on the road and lost to the Chargers earlier this season by just one point, 20-19, despite being a 14 ½ point underdog. Kansas City has finally settler on a quarterback in Tyler Thigpen and he does have some receiving weapons to work with in Bowe and Gonzalez. The Chargers have never recovered for the botched call earlier this season and they cannot wait for this season to end. The Chiefs are playing for their coaches and the players are playing for their jobs next season. They win this game straight-up and getting points in a bonus. Kansas City 27, San Diego 24.
Jeff Benton
Sunday's NFL winnners ...
25 Dime: COWBOYS (minus the points vs. Giants) ... NOTE: I highly doubt that this number will climb to 3 1/2, but if for some reason it does, buy the half-point with Dallas and only lay 3. Do NOT get beat on the hook in this game!
15 Dime: TEXANS (plus the points vs. Titans)
5 Dime: 49ERS (plus the points vs. Dolphins) ... NOTE: If this line jumps to 6 1/2, play it smart and protect yourself by buying the half point and grabbing seven, which is obviously a key number in the NFL.
Cowboys
Forget about the latest saga involving Mr. Me, Terrell Owens, and the supposedly fractured Cowboys locker room. And forget about any lingering hangover from Dallas’ blown four-quarter lead at Pittsburgh last week. It means nothing. All that matters is this is THE biggest game of the year for the Cowboys, and I’m fully confident that they’ll be ready to play football tonight. And if they do indeed bring their A game, then we’ve got ourselves tremendous value with the home team.
First off, don’t forget that Dallas is 5-1 at home this season, with the last two victories – both with Romo back under center – being by a combined score of 69-31. Yes, the opponents were the 49ers and Seahawks, I get that. But have you seen what San Francisco has done the last two weeks, winning at Buffalo and knocking off the Jets last Sunday? And did you see Seattle, with its backup quarterback, take New England to the wire a week ago? No, I’m not suggesting that the 49ers or Seahawks – two teams that the Giants also crushed at home earlier this season – are in the same league as the defending champions. I am saying those were pretty thorough whippings by the Cowboys, who outgained the Niners and Seahawks by 229 total yards
And even though they gave away that game against the Steelers last week, we can all agree that Dallas outplayed a Super Bowl contender on the road in frigid conditions. And had they pulled out the win, the Cowboys would be riding a four-game winning streak right now and we’d probably be laying more than 5 points tonight. So indeed there is line value with Dallas tonight.
Meanwhile, hours before Dallas outplayed the Steelers last Sunday, the Giants got completely run over at home by the Eagles. Some are willing to chalk up the loss to the distractions caused by the Plaxico Burress incident. Not me. When you get outgained by 120 total yards (331-211), when you’re the league’s #1 rushing team and you get outrushed 144-88, when you managed just 14 first downs (and allow 24), and when your quarterback – playing his second game without his favorite, most reliable 6-foot-7 target – goes 13-for-27 for 123 yards, well, you can’t blame that all on distractions. And don’t be fooled by the 20-14 final score, either. The Giants got one touchdown on a blocked field goal return on the final play of the first half, then got a garbage TD with 20 seconds left to make the score more respectable.
Honestly, guys, I think the Giants got exposed a bit in that Eagles loss, especially offensively. With Brandon Jacobs hurt (and he’s been ruled out for this game), New York’s vaunted ground game did nothing. And with no Burress on the field, Philadelphia’s defense didn’t have to mask coverages with a double team, meaning Eli Manning had fewer open options in the passing game. Now, without Burress and without Jacobs – both of whom made big contributions in the Giants’ 35-14 win over Dallas five weeks ago when the Cowboys didn’t have Romo – New York must try and solve a Cowboys defense that has been outstanding recently. Since the Giants’ debacle, that D has given up 15.3 points per game, and that includes the Steelers’ INT return for a touchdown last week that obviously wasn’t the fault of the Dallas defense.
In the last three games alone, the Cowboys have given up just 288 total yards per game, including a scant 58.7 rushing yards per game. During that same span, the Dallas offense has produced 27.3 points and 381.3 yards per game, including 286.3 passing ypg from Romo. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been torched by the pass the last three weeks, allowing an average of 254.3 ypg to Kurt Warner, Jason Campbell and Donovan McNabb. The point: I see Romo bouncing back from last week’s disaster at Pittsburgh, and I don’t care what WR or TE he’s throwing to.
Bottom line: While the Giants are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that’s important, the Cowboys are playing to save their season. They’re at home, where all five of their wins have come by four points or more, while the Giants are playing their fourth road game in the last six weeks, with three of those being against divisional foes. If the Cowboys come ready to play from the start, I not only see them winning, I see them winning handily.
Texans
At this late point in the season, it’s important to identify the attitudes and motivations of teams as much as it is to break down the actual matchups. When it comes to teams that are out of the playoff hunt, like the Texans, it’s critical to determine which are still giving an honest effort on every play and which are going through the motions. Clearly, after three consecutive victories and four straight spread-covers (three of which came on the road), Houston falls into the category of a squad that’s still giving its all.
At the same time, Tennessee wrapped up a division title and a first-round bye last week and is a virtual lock for home-field advantage, making this a major flat spot for Jeff Fisher’s team. Frankly, I just can’t envision the Titans, who are hitting the road for the fourth time in the last six weeks, having that mental edge today. Simply put, it’s only natural in a grueling 16-week season for teams – even great ones like the Titans – to have an off week, and this would seem to be the perfect storm for such an occurrence: Fourth road game in six weeks, coming off clinching a division title for the first time in years, facing a gritty and improving divisional opponent and missing one Pro Bowl-caliber defensive lineman (Kyle Vanden Bosch is out for the Titans) and another who is banged up (Albert Haynesworth is questionable).
Also, when these squads met back in Week 3 in Nashville, the final score read Titans 31, Texans 12, but it was a misleading final for two reasons: 1) the Texans were playing their first game after dealing with the devastation of Hurricane Ike, not to mention coming off an unscheduled bye week filled with non-football-related distractions; and 2) the Texans marched inside the Tennessee 11-yard line five different times but only managed 13 points (1 TD, 2 FGs), while being stopped on downs twice and having an interception returned 99 yards for a score. In fact, from a yardage perspective, Houston was every bit as good as Tennessee that day, finishing with 317 yards (146 rushing, 5.2 yards per carry) and giving up 343 yards (154 rushing, 4.3 ypc).
This time around, the Titans are catching Houston fully focused and playing great football. With last week’s 24-21 win at Lambeau Field – they outgained the Packers by 162 yards! – Houston won for the third straight week and the sixth time in the last nine weeks. In those nine contests, the Texans’ offense has put up 24 points or more six times. More impressively, though, over the last three weeks, the defense has really stepped up, giving up just 44 total points – or 30 points if you take away two garbage-time touchdowns to Jacksonville two Mondays ago.
Texans QB Matt Schaub returned from injury last week and lit up the Packers for 414 passing yards, and his presence makes rookie RB Steve Slaton that much more dangerous (Slaton gashed a really good Titans defense for 116 yards on just 18 carries in the first meeting). Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog and 5-1 ATS in its last six games in December. Also, despite the Week 3 result, the ‘dog has dominated this rivalry of late, cashing in seven of the last 10 meetings, with five outright upsets.
Take the points, though I’ve got a strong feeling we’re not even going to need them, as I think the surging Texans (4-2 at home this year) will catch Tennessee napping.
49ers
Along with the Falcons, the Miami Dolphins are in the midst of one of the most remarkable seasons I’ve ever witnessed in the NFL. For them to go 1-15 last year – with that lone victory coming in overtime – to 8-5 and atop the AFC East standings in 12 months is beyond stunning. But if there’s one legitimate criticism that can be charged against the Dolphins it’s their inability to handle the role of favorite. Miami has been a chalk six times this season and has covered the spread only once, and that was a 25-16 come-from-behind home win over the Bills as a scant one-point favorite (and in some spots, that game closed as a pick-em). On the other hand, since losing their first two games to the Jets and Cardinals, the Dolphins have cashed five straight times as an underdog.
Well, today, they’re laying almost a touchdown against the 49ers, who fall into the same category as the aforementioned Houston Texans: a team that’s going all out on both sides of the ball despite having nothing but pride for which to play. San Francisco has won back-to-back games for the first time this year, and it was against two teams from Miami’s division (10-3 road win at Buffalo; 24-14 home win over the Jets). Over their last five games, the 49ers are 4-1 ATS, with three outright wins. The most impressive had to have been last week’s 10-point beat-down of the first-place Jets. San Francisco finished with 375 total yards (100 rushing) and held New York to just 182 yards (59 rushing), and Niners QB Shaun Hill (275 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) clearly outplayed Brett Favre (137 passing yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT).
Now, I admit that this is a difficult travel spot for the 49ers, as they’re making their third trip to the East Coast since Oct. 19. They’re also on the road for the third time in the last four weeks, having previously trekked to Dallas and Buffalo in consecutive weeks at the end of November. That said, San Francisco is the ONLY team from the West Coast to win a game in the Eastern Time Zone this season (that seven-point win at the Bills). They’re playing with a lot of heart and a ton of confidence, and new coach Mike Singletary clearly has pushed the right motivational buttons. And even if RB Frank Gore is a no-go, I still think San Fran can hang in this game against Miami, which has struggled to beat the likes of the Seahawks (21-19) and Raiders (17-15) at home, as well as the lowly Rams (16-12) on the road. Take the points.
Sunday's NFL winnners ...
25 Dime: COWBOYS (minus the points vs. Giants) ... NOTE: I highly doubt that this number will climb to 3 1/2, but if for some reason it does, buy the half-point with Dallas and only lay 3. Do NOT get beat on the hook in this game!
15 Dime: TEXANS (plus the points vs. Titans)
5 Dime: 49ERS (plus the points vs. Dolphins) ... NOTE: If this line jumps to 6 1/2, play it smart and protect yourself by buying the half point and grabbing seven, which is obviously a key number in the NFL.
Cowboys
Forget about the latest saga involving Mr. Me, Terrell Owens, and the supposedly fractured Cowboys locker room. And forget about any lingering hangover from Dallas’ blown four-quarter lead at Pittsburgh last week. It means nothing. All that matters is this is THE biggest game of the year for the Cowboys, and I’m fully confident that they’ll be ready to play football tonight. And if they do indeed bring their A game, then we’ve got ourselves tremendous value with the home team.
First off, don’t forget that Dallas is 5-1 at home this season, with the last two victories – both with Romo back under center – being by a combined score of 69-31. Yes, the opponents were the 49ers and Seahawks, I get that. But have you seen what San Francisco has done the last two weeks, winning at Buffalo and knocking off the Jets last Sunday? And did you see Seattle, with its backup quarterback, take New England to the wire a week ago? No, I’m not suggesting that the 49ers or Seahawks – two teams that the Giants also crushed at home earlier this season – are in the same league as the defending champions. I am saying those were pretty thorough whippings by the Cowboys, who outgained the Niners and Seahawks by 229 total yards
And even though they gave away that game against the Steelers last week, we can all agree that Dallas outplayed a Super Bowl contender on the road in frigid conditions. And had they pulled out the win, the Cowboys would be riding a four-game winning streak right now and we’d probably be laying more than 5 points tonight. So indeed there is line value with Dallas tonight.
Meanwhile, hours before Dallas outplayed the Steelers last Sunday, the Giants got completely run over at home by the Eagles. Some are willing to chalk up the loss to the distractions caused by the Plaxico Burress incident. Not me. When you get outgained by 120 total yards (331-211), when you’re the league’s #1 rushing team and you get outrushed 144-88, when you managed just 14 first downs (and allow 24), and when your quarterback – playing his second game without his favorite, most reliable 6-foot-7 target – goes 13-for-27 for 123 yards, well, you can’t blame that all on distractions. And don’t be fooled by the 20-14 final score, either. The Giants got one touchdown on a blocked field goal return on the final play of the first half, then got a garbage TD with 20 seconds left to make the score more respectable.
Honestly, guys, I think the Giants got exposed a bit in that Eagles loss, especially offensively. With Brandon Jacobs hurt (and he’s been ruled out for this game), New York’s vaunted ground game did nothing. And with no Burress on the field, Philadelphia’s defense didn’t have to mask coverages with a double team, meaning Eli Manning had fewer open options in the passing game. Now, without Burress and without Jacobs – both of whom made big contributions in the Giants’ 35-14 win over Dallas five weeks ago when the Cowboys didn’t have Romo – New York must try and solve a Cowboys defense that has been outstanding recently. Since the Giants’ debacle, that D has given up 15.3 points per game, and that includes the Steelers’ INT return for a touchdown last week that obviously wasn’t the fault of the Dallas defense.
In the last three games alone, the Cowboys have given up just 288 total yards per game, including a scant 58.7 rushing yards per game. During that same span, the Dallas offense has produced 27.3 points and 381.3 yards per game, including 286.3 passing ypg from Romo. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been torched by the pass the last three weeks, allowing an average of 254.3 ypg to Kurt Warner, Jason Campbell and Donovan McNabb. The point: I see Romo bouncing back from last week’s disaster at Pittsburgh, and I don’t care what WR or TE he’s throwing to.
Bottom line: While the Giants are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that’s important, the Cowboys are playing to save their season. They’re at home, where all five of their wins have come by four points or more, while the Giants are playing their fourth road game in the last six weeks, with three of those being against divisional foes. If the Cowboys come ready to play from the start, I not only see them winning, I see them winning handily.
Texans
At this late point in the season, it’s important to identify the attitudes and motivations of teams as much as it is to break down the actual matchups. When it comes to teams that are out of the playoff hunt, like the Texans, it’s critical to determine which are still giving an honest effort on every play and which are going through the motions. Clearly, after three consecutive victories and four straight spread-covers (three of which came on the road), Houston falls into the category of a squad that’s still giving its all.
At the same time, Tennessee wrapped up a division title and a first-round bye last week and is a virtual lock for home-field advantage, making this a major flat spot for Jeff Fisher’s team. Frankly, I just can’t envision the Titans, who are hitting the road for the fourth time in the last six weeks, having that mental edge today. Simply put, it’s only natural in a grueling 16-week season for teams – even great ones like the Titans – to have an off week, and this would seem to be the perfect storm for such an occurrence: Fourth road game in six weeks, coming off clinching a division title for the first time in years, facing a gritty and improving divisional opponent and missing one Pro Bowl-caliber defensive lineman (Kyle Vanden Bosch is out for the Titans) and another who is banged up (Albert Haynesworth is questionable).
Also, when these squads met back in Week 3 in Nashville, the final score read Titans 31, Texans 12, but it was a misleading final for two reasons: 1) the Texans were playing their first game after dealing with the devastation of Hurricane Ike, not to mention coming off an unscheduled bye week filled with non-football-related distractions; and 2) the Texans marched inside the Tennessee 11-yard line five different times but only managed 13 points (1 TD, 2 FGs), while being stopped on downs twice and having an interception returned 99 yards for a score. In fact, from a yardage perspective, Houston was every bit as good as Tennessee that day, finishing with 317 yards (146 rushing, 5.2 yards per carry) and giving up 343 yards (154 rushing, 4.3 ypc).
This time around, the Titans are catching Houston fully focused and playing great football. With last week’s 24-21 win at Lambeau Field – they outgained the Packers by 162 yards! – Houston won for the third straight week and the sixth time in the last nine weeks. In those nine contests, the Texans’ offense has put up 24 points or more six times. More impressively, though, over the last three weeks, the defense has really stepped up, giving up just 44 total points – or 30 points if you take away two garbage-time touchdowns to Jacksonville two Mondays ago.
Texans QB Matt Schaub returned from injury last week and lit up the Packers for 414 passing yards, and his presence makes rookie RB Steve Slaton that much more dangerous (Slaton gashed a really good Titans defense for 116 yards on just 18 carries in the first meeting). Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog and 5-1 ATS in its last six games in December. Also, despite the Week 3 result, the ‘dog has dominated this rivalry of late, cashing in seven of the last 10 meetings, with five outright upsets.
Take the points, though I’ve got a strong feeling we’re not even going to need them, as I think the surging Texans (4-2 at home this year) will catch Tennessee napping.
49ers
Along with the Falcons, the Miami Dolphins are in the midst of one of the most remarkable seasons I’ve ever witnessed in the NFL. For them to go 1-15 last year – with that lone victory coming in overtime – to 8-5 and atop the AFC East standings in 12 months is beyond stunning. But if there’s one legitimate criticism that can be charged against the Dolphins it’s their inability to handle the role of favorite. Miami has been a chalk six times this season and has covered the spread only once, and that was a 25-16 come-from-behind home win over the Bills as a scant one-point favorite (and in some spots, that game closed as a pick-em). On the other hand, since losing their first two games to the Jets and Cardinals, the Dolphins have cashed five straight times as an underdog.
Well, today, they’re laying almost a touchdown against the 49ers, who fall into the same category as the aforementioned Houston Texans: a team that’s going all out on both sides of the ball despite having nothing but pride for which to play. San Francisco has won back-to-back games for the first time this year, and it was against two teams from Miami’s division (10-3 road win at Buffalo; 24-14 home win over the Jets). Over their last five games, the 49ers are 4-1 ATS, with three outright wins. The most impressive had to have been last week’s 10-point beat-down of the first-place Jets. San Francisco finished with 375 total yards (100 rushing) and held New York to just 182 yards (59 rushing), and Niners QB Shaun Hill (275 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) clearly outplayed Brett Favre (137 passing yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT).
Now, I admit that this is a difficult travel spot for the 49ers, as they’re making their third trip to the East Coast since Oct. 19. They’re also on the road for the third time in the last four weeks, having previously trekked to Dallas and Buffalo in consecutive weeks at the end of November. That said, San Francisco is the ONLY team from the West Coast to win a game in the Eastern Time Zone this season (that seven-point win at the Bills). They’re playing with a lot of heart and a ton of confidence, and new coach Mike Singletary clearly has pushed the right motivational buttons. And even if RB Frank Gore is a no-go, I still think San Fran can hang in this game against Miami, which has struggled to beat the likes of the Seahawks (21-19) and Raiders (17-15) at home, as well as the lowly Rams (16-12) on the road. Take the points.
Andre Gomes
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Miami vs San Francisco
Play: Triple Dime -5,5 Miami
Comments:
NFL Week 15 - 311 San Francisco 49ers @ 312 Miami Dolphins
This is my only triple dime play of the season and this is surely the game where I have more confidence during the whole season. I know it may seem weird my GOY to be on a team like Miami and not for example on the Giants, the Steelers or the Titans, but the truth is that all the conditions I need to make a play my GOY are present on this game, so I'm sticking with it.
Miami is 0-3 ATS as an home favorite this season and as a big favorite by 7 or more points, they are also 0-3 ATS. They won these three games, but they were very close wins: 16-12 @St Louis, 17-15 vs Oakland and 21-19 vs Seattle. These bad results in terms of ATS made the oddmakers release such a low line for this game and put Miami as just a 2 FG's favorite at home against an awful team, but the truth is that Miami won't underrate this team, as I'll explain later.
The spot is very different for these two teams. Miami is tied on the division lead with the Patriots and the Jets right now, with a 8-5 record and they will probably need to win their remaining three games to get into the playoffs, so we can clearly say that this team will have 3 must win games until the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Niners are in a much different situation. The team will have to come to the East coast once again and we have the timezone problem, but more important than that, the Niners will have next week a divisional game against the Rams, so I wouldn't be surprised if we are looking to a lookahead situation for the Niners in here.
One of the big edges that Miami will have in here has to go with injuries. Miami is a fully healthy team, with no major injuries. On the other side, RB Frank Gore is questionable and he won't likely play this week. The importance of Gore on the team is huge and I remember that on all six ATS wins of the Niners this season, Frank Gore rushed the football for over 60 yards in all of these games. And in three of them, Gore had more than 100 rushing yards! The problem is not only the absence of Gore, but who will replace him. Fumble-prone DeShaun Foster will start and he led all NFL running back with five lost fumbles in 2007. And speaking of fumbles, that's the biggest edge of Miami on this game: the turnover battle!
You won't find this season s biggest turnover difference between two teams than between Miami and San Francisco. The Dolphins lead the leading in turnover margin (+12), they have just turned over the ball 10 times this season and they are on track to have the fewest number of turnovers per game in NFL history (0.77), while San Francisco has the worst turnover margin of the league this season (-14) and they had suffered 15 interceptions and 15 lost fumbles. We are talking about an huge difference on these two teams, so I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers get confirmed on this game. The paucity of turnovers helps keep Miami's defense rested and especially as so few have occurred in the Dolphins' end of the field, it gives them a larger margin of error because of field position. The Dolphins are 13th in total defense, 18th in yards per play, but 9th in points given up.
After having studied this game, we will to know if Miami is going to underrate the Niners. Look, the Dolphins watched the Niners defeating the Bills and the Jets (two divisional rivals of the Dolphins) in two consecutive weeks, so will they underrate them even knowing they have defeated two rivals of Miami in the past two weeks? I don't think so. On the other side, the fact that San Francisco faced two divisional rivals of Miami on the past two weeks allowed Miami to carefully studied how the Niners are playing right now. On a similar spot, Dallas spanked Seattle on Thanksgiving and I expect the same to happen in here.
San Francisco is 0-6 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive ATS wins in the last two seasons and having in account, Miami will just need to win by a difference of two field goals to cover the spread, I think we have all the necessary elements to make this play my NFL Game of the Year! Take Miami in here. TRIPLE DIME PLAY!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 312 Miami Dolphins (-5,5) @1.926 on Pinnacle
Note: Buy the 1/2 point to get to 5,5 if you need to.
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay
Play: Single Dime -3 Atlanta
Comments:
NFL Week 15 - 309 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 310 Atlanta Falcons
We have seen last Monday the power that a home division game has on the NFC South teams. In fact, the teams from this division are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in division home games. This week, Atlanta will face Tampa at home, in a decisive game for both teams, who are both coming from defeats. The Bucs were destroyed at Carolina by the Panthers last Monday by 23-38, in a game where Tampa Bay wasn't able to stop the running game of the Panthers, which even broke a NFL record. I'm going to quote something I've said about that game and how important is the defense of the Bucs for them:
"If you look to injury list of this game, we see 3 players of Tampa in doubt for tonight: Kevin Carter, Jovan Haye and Gaines Adams. These three players are part of the defensive line of the Bucs and they have started all games of Tampa this season. So, we won't have a defensive line of the Bucs at 100% tonight and when we see the Panthers' running game on-fire, this can be a huge problem for the Bucs."
The news aren't good for the Bucs, as DTs Jovan Haye and Chris Hovan are questionable for this game. Neither was able to participate fully in Friday's practice. Now they are going to face a team, who has the second best running offense of the league, with 146.4 yards per game, just behind the Giants. I remember that on the first game between these two teams this season, Tampa defeated at home Atlanta by 24-9, with the Bucs holding RB Michael Turner to a season low 42 yards on 14 carries. The Falcons rushed for 105 yards, but 34 of those yards came on two runs by wide receiver Harry Douglas. For this game, I expect the scenario to be different. First of all, the problems on the DL of the Bucs will make them struggle, especially when the running offense of the Falcons wasn't used a lot last week at New Orleans and so, they will be fresher than never.
The Falcons only had 30 rushes last week against the Saints, tied for their third lowest rushes in a game this season.
“That game demanded throwing the ball a little bit last week,” Mularkey said. “We’ll do that if we have to. I’m not concerned about it. I think the guys know that’s our mentality and that’s not going to change.”
If we add the fact that Matt Ryan is one of the best QB of the league in home games, with an amazing average of 107.2 QB rating at home, I don't see why Atlanta won't be able to make a lot of damage on this game. The Bucs have been well lately on the offense, by scoring 38, 23 and 23 points on their last 3 games and that has been due to the excellent job of their QB Jeff Garcia, who is coming from a MNF game, where he threw the ball for 321 yards and had 2 TD passes. However, he is questionable for this game and he was limited the whole week on practice. One of the strongest parts of his game is his mobility and with him struggling with a calf injury, the Bucs won't be so effective on the offense.
I expect a good win from the young Falcons in here. This is a revenge game from them and Matt Ryan had his worst game of the season against the Bucs on that game (first NFL road game for him at the time). Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and the revenge game factor will very important in here, as all teams are 34-8 ATS in the last 10 seasons, while revenging a same season loss against an opponents, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) during the second half of the season. Take Atlanta in here.
Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 310 Atlanta Falcons (-3) @1.87 on TheGreek
Detroit vs NY Jets
Play: Single Dime +23,5 Detroit x -2,5 NY Jets
Score: TEASER!!!
Comments:
NFL Week 15 - Detroit @ Indianapolis & Buffalo @ NY Jets - Teaser
I admit I almost took Detroit in a single play this week, but the fact that I have my GOY this Sunday and I don't like to have many units in play at the same time made me take them just on a teaser. I'm not saying the Lions have a chance to win this game, because they don't. The truth is that the teaser gives us a line of 23.5 points and I expect Detroit to cover this spread easily. Unlike the other lowly teams, Detroit still has a goal to achieve this season: win a game! For this game, QB Dan Orlovsky will be back and he was clearly the best QB of Detroit this season. With Orlovsky as a starter, the Lions scored 23, 17 and 21 points, with Orlovsky himself having QB ratings of 88.2, 99.6 and 95.3, so we can say the Lions have now their best QB back and their offense will be better this week. But the main question is here has to go with the Colts. The team is coming from a big win by 35-3 against the Bengals and certainly they didn't practice as hard as they could this week, as they know they will face the winless Detroit at home. The Colts aren’t going to be really concerned with this matchup. Their goal is to win, avoid injuries and move on. I remember Indianapolis has some key players physically limited right now. RB Joseph Addai is doubtful, S Bob Sanders is questionable and Gary Brackett is out. So, the team may not use these players this week, especially as they will play at Jacksonville next Thursday against the Jags, in a big revenge divisional game, which they will have to win, in order to get a wildcard for the playoffs, so I don't expect a big effort from the Colts this week. Detroit is 4-1 ATS as a double digits dog this season and with the teaser, we have the enormity of 23.5 points.
The Jets went from the hottest team of the league to a struggling team in just two weeks, as after winning 7 of their last 8 games, they lost their last two games, in which their were favorites. First they lost at home against Denver and last week, they lost at San Francisco. So, this game will be essential for them. The team has a terrible pass defense and they are second last on that stat, with 251.2 yards allowed per game. However, the good news for them is that the Bills are horrible on the offense right now. The team is coming from back to back games where they scored just 3 points against the Niners and Miami. On their last game against Miami, the Bills had just 79 passing yards! Actually Buffalo hasn’t scored a touchdown in two games and 22 offensive possessions over three games. To make things worse, QB Trent Edwards didn't recover from his injury and he will be out of this game and the scenario won't be famous for Buffalo. The Bills will become a run oriented team for this game, but that doesn't seem to be bad news for the Jets, as they have the 4th best run defense of the league, with just 83.5 yards allowed per game. I believe Brett Favre will step it up this season the Bills, who have lost all their real chances of getting onto the postseason, won't stand a chance in here. However, I think the Jets will just want to win this game, so I'm taking them on just a teaser (-2.5 points), which is an advantage of a Field Goal, which I consider to be the best play on this game.
NFL 6 1/2 Teaser: 3 units (Regular Play) on Detroit (+23,5) x NY Jets (-2,5) @1.833 on Pinnacle
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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Miami vs San Francisco
Play: Triple Dime -5,5 Miami
Comments:
NFL Week 15 - 311 San Francisco 49ers @ 312 Miami Dolphins
This is my only triple dime play of the season and this is surely the game where I have more confidence during the whole season. I know it may seem weird my GOY to be on a team like Miami and not for example on the Giants, the Steelers or the Titans, but the truth is that all the conditions I need to make a play my GOY are present on this game, so I'm sticking with it.
Miami is 0-3 ATS as an home favorite this season and as a big favorite by 7 or more points, they are also 0-3 ATS. They won these three games, but they were very close wins: 16-12 @St Louis, 17-15 vs Oakland and 21-19 vs Seattle. These bad results in terms of ATS made the oddmakers release such a low line for this game and put Miami as just a 2 FG's favorite at home against an awful team, but the truth is that Miami won't underrate this team, as I'll explain later.
The spot is very different for these two teams. Miami is tied on the division lead with the Patriots and the Jets right now, with a 8-5 record and they will probably need to win their remaining three games to get into the playoffs, so we can clearly say that this team will have 3 must win games until the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Niners are in a much different situation. The team will have to come to the East coast once again and we have the timezone problem, but more important than that, the Niners will have next week a divisional game against the Rams, so I wouldn't be surprised if we are looking to a lookahead situation for the Niners in here.
One of the big edges that Miami will have in here has to go with injuries. Miami is a fully healthy team, with no major injuries. On the other side, RB Frank Gore is questionable and he won't likely play this week. The importance of Gore on the team is huge and I remember that on all six ATS wins of the Niners this season, Frank Gore rushed the football for over 60 yards in all of these games. And in three of them, Gore had more than 100 rushing yards! The problem is not only the absence of Gore, but who will replace him. Fumble-prone DeShaun Foster will start and he led all NFL running back with five lost fumbles in 2007. And speaking of fumbles, that's the biggest edge of Miami on this game: the turnover battle!
You won't find this season s biggest turnover difference between two teams than between Miami and San Francisco. The Dolphins lead the leading in turnover margin (+12), they have just turned over the ball 10 times this season and they are on track to have the fewest number of turnovers per game in NFL history (0.77), while San Francisco has the worst turnover margin of the league this season (-14) and they had suffered 15 interceptions and 15 lost fumbles. We are talking about an huge difference on these two teams, so I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers get confirmed on this game. The paucity of turnovers helps keep Miami's defense rested and especially as so few have occurred in the Dolphins' end of the field, it gives them a larger margin of error because of field position. The Dolphins are 13th in total defense, 18th in yards per play, but 9th in points given up.
After having studied this game, we will to know if Miami is going to underrate the Niners. Look, the Dolphins watched the Niners defeating the Bills and the Jets (two divisional rivals of the Dolphins) in two consecutive weeks, so will they underrate them even knowing they have defeated two rivals of Miami in the past two weeks? I don't think so. On the other side, the fact that San Francisco faced two divisional rivals of Miami on the past two weeks allowed Miami to carefully studied how the Niners are playing right now. On a similar spot, Dallas spanked Seattle on Thanksgiving and I expect the same to happen in here.
San Francisco is 0-6 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive ATS wins in the last two seasons and having in account, Miami will just need to win by a difference of two field goals to cover the spread, I think we have all the necessary elements to make this play my NFL Game of the Year! Take Miami in here. TRIPLE DIME PLAY!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 312 Miami Dolphins (-5,5) @1.926 on Pinnacle
Note: Buy the 1/2 point to get to 5,5 if you need to.
Atlanta vs Tampa Bay
Play: Single Dime -3 Atlanta
Comments:
NFL Week 15 - 309 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 310 Atlanta Falcons
We have seen last Monday the power that a home division game has on the NFC South teams. In fact, the teams from this division are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in division home games. This week, Atlanta will face Tampa at home, in a decisive game for both teams, who are both coming from defeats. The Bucs were destroyed at Carolina by the Panthers last Monday by 23-38, in a game where Tampa Bay wasn't able to stop the running game of the Panthers, which even broke a NFL record. I'm going to quote something I've said about that game and how important is the defense of the Bucs for them:
"If you look to injury list of this game, we see 3 players of Tampa in doubt for tonight: Kevin Carter, Jovan Haye and Gaines Adams. These three players are part of the defensive line of the Bucs and they have started all games of Tampa this season. So, we won't have a defensive line of the Bucs at 100% tonight and when we see the Panthers' running game on-fire, this can be a huge problem for the Bucs."
The news aren't good for the Bucs, as DTs Jovan Haye and Chris Hovan are questionable for this game. Neither was able to participate fully in Friday's practice. Now they are going to face a team, who has the second best running offense of the league, with 146.4 yards per game, just behind the Giants. I remember that on the first game between these two teams this season, Tampa defeated at home Atlanta by 24-9, with the Bucs holding RB Michael Turner to a season low 42 yards on 14 carries. The Falcons rushed for 105 yards, but 34 of those yards came on two runs by wide receiver Harry Douglas. For this game, I expect the scenario to be different. First of all, the problems on the DL of the Bucs will make them struggle, especially when the running offense of the Falcons wasn't used a lot last week at New Orleans and so, they will be fresher than never.
The Falcons only had 30 rushes last week against the Saints, tied for their third lowest rushes in a game this season.
“That game demanded throwing the ball a little bit last week,” Mularkey said. “We’ll do that if we have to. I’m not concerned about it. I think the guys know that’s our mentality and that’s not going to change.”
If we add the fact that Matt Ryan is one of the best QB of the league in home games, with an amazing average of 107.2 QB rating at home, I don't see why Atlanta won't be able to make a lot of damage on this game. The Bucs have been well lately on the offense, by scoring 38, 23 and 23 points on their last 3 games and that has been due to the excellent job of their QB Jeff Garcia, who is coming from a MNF game, where he threw the ball for 321 yards and had 2 TD passes. However, he is questionable for this game and he was limited the whole week on practice. One of the strongest parts of his game is his mobility and with him struggling with a calf injury, the Bucs won't be so effective on the offense.
I expect a good win from the young Falcons in here. This is a revenge game from them and Matt Ryan had his worst game of the season against the Bucs on that game (first NFL road game for him at the time). Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and the revenge game factor will very important in here, as all teams are 34-8 ATS in the last 10 seasons, while revenging a same season loss against an opponents, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) during the second half of the season. Take Atlanta in here.
Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 310 Atlanta Falcons (-3) @1.87 on TheGreek
Detroit vs NY Jets
Play: Single Dime +23,5 Detroit x -2,5 NY Jets
Score: TEASER!!!
Comments:
NFL Week 15 - Detroit @ Indianapolis & Buffalo @ NY Jets - Teaser
I admit I almost took Detroit in a single play this week, but the fact that I have my GOY this Sunday and I don't like to have many units in play at the same time made me take them just on a teaser. I'm not saying the Lions have a chance to win this game, because they don't. The truth is that the teaser gives us a line of 23.5 points and I expect Detroit to cover this spread easily. Unlike the other lowly teams, Detroit still has a goal to achieve this season: win a game! For this game, QB Dan Orlovsky will be back and he was clearly the best QB of Detroit this season. With Orlovsky as a starter, the Lions scored 23, 17 and 21 points, with Orlovsky himself having QB ratings of 88.2, 99.6 and 95.3, so we can say the Lions have now their best QB back and their offense will be better this week. But the main question is here has to go with the Colts. The team is coming from a big win by 35-3 against the Bengals and certainly they didn't practice as hard as they could this week, as they know they will face the winless Detroit at home. The Colts aren’t going to be really concerned with this matchup. Their goal is to win, avoid injuries and move on. I remember Indianapolis has some key players physically limited right now. RB Joseph Addai is doubtful, S Bob Sanders is questionable and Gary Brackett is out. So, the team may not use these players this week, especially as they will play at Jacksonville next Thursday against the Jags, in a big revenge divisional game, which they will have to win, in order to get a wildcard for the playoffs, so I don't expect a big effort from the Colts this week. Detroit is 4-1 ATS as a double digits dog this season and with the teaser, we have the enormity of 23.5 points.
The Jets went from the hottest team of the league to a struggling team in just two weeks, as after winning 7 of their last 8 games, they lost their last two games, in which their were favorites. First they lost at home against Denver and last week, they lost at San Francisco. So, this game will be essential for them. The team has a terrible pass defense and they are second last on that stat, with 251.2 yards allowed per game. However, the good news for them is that the Bills are horrible on the offense right now. The team is coming from back to back games where they scored just 3 points against the Niners and Miami. On their last game against Miami, the Bills had just 79 passing yards! Actually Buffalo hasn’t scored a touchdown in two games and 22 offensive possessions over three games. To make things worse, QB Trent Edwards didn't recover from his injury and he will be out of this game and the scenario won't be famous for Buffalo. The Bills will become a run oriented team for this game, but that doesn't seem to be bad news for the Jets, as they have the 4th best run defense of the league, with just 83.5 yards allowed per game. I believe Brett Favre will step it up this season the Bills, who have lost all their real chances of getting onto the postseason, won't stand a chance in here. However, I think the Jets will just want to win this game, so I'm taking them on just a teaser (-2.5 points), which is an advantage of a Field Goal, which I consider to be the best play on this game.
NFL 6 1/2 Teaser: 3 units (Regular Play) on Detroit (+23,5) x NY Jets (-2,5) @1.833 on Pinnacle
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BLACK CAT
Last Week (Week 14): 1-1 (50%)
Overall: 57-39-4 (59.3%)
Week-by-Week: 8-3-3 (73%)
==========Week 15===========
Detroit +17 Indianapolis (Colts 33, Detroit 17)
Oakland +7 -115 New England (New England 20, Oakland 14)
Minnesota +3 +105 Arizona (Minnesota 24, Arizona 23)
NYG +3 -115 Dallas (NYG 28, Dallas 23)
New Orleans +3 -120 Chicago (New Orleans 27, Chicago 20) PUSH Chicago 27, NO 24
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Last Week (Week 14): 1-1 (50%)
Overall: 57-39-4 (59.3%)
Week-by-Week: 8-3-3 (73%)
==========Week 15===========
Detroit +17 Indianapolis (Colts 33, Detroit 17)
Oakland +7 -115 New England (New England 20, Oakland 14)
Minnesota +3 +105 Arizona (Minnesota 24, Arizona 23)
NYG +3 -115 Dallas (NYG 28, Dallas 23)
New Orleans +3 -120 Chicago (New Orleans 27, Chicago 20) PUSH Chicago 27, NO 24
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PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 39 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: 10* NFL Total of the Month - 83% run!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 10* Under the total, Cleveland vs. Philadelphia, 8:30 PM EST
Cleveland’s offensive struggles are the main reason we are taking the UNDER on this game. With Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn both sidelined with injuries, the Browns will start Ken Dorsey at quarterback for the second straight week. Last week in a 9-28 loss to the Titans, Dorsey was a mere 22/43 for 150 yards and 1 interception. We don’t see his production improving this week vs. a stingy Eagles defense. Even before Dorsey was handed the starting job, the Browns were struggling to score points. They have totaled just 21 points in the past three weeks (just 7 points per game). Their total yardage numbers the last three games are 240, 192 and 178. The Cleveland offense has been horrendous and now they face off against the 4th ranked defense in the NFL. The Eagles stop unit has completely shutdown two of the best offenses in the NFL the last two weeks. They held Arizona to just 20 points and 260 total yards two weeks ago. Last Sunday they topped the Giants 20-14. New York put together only 211 yards of total offense against this red hot defense. Not only that, their 14 points were even a bit deceiving as they scored one TD on a 71-yard blocked field goal return and the other TD came with just 20 seconds remaining in the game.
Back to the Browns and their defense which has actually been playing fairly well. Before giving up 28 points last week to the Titans, the Browns held Houston to just 16 points and Indianapolis to just 10 in back to back weeks. Cleveland is actually 3rd in the entire NFL in defensive efficiency allowing just one point for every 17 yards gained by their opponent. They have allowed 17 points or less in six of their last ten games. This team is decent on defense and really bad on offense. That combination leads to low scoring games.
The Eagles were in shambles after their 29 point loss to the Ravens, but as we mentioned, they bounced back nicely with big wins against the Cardinals and the Giants the last two weeks. Philly has been riding on the back of Brian Westbrook for the last two weeks as he has totaled 240 yards rushing. Eagle coach Andy Reid has really decided to lean on the run down the stretch and that has amounted to 81 rushes in the last two games. Don’t expect him to change his philosophy which has led to two straight wins. With the Browns ability to stop the pass (Cleveland has allowed an average of 185 yards passing the past three weeks, allowing just 3 touchdowns and forcing 6 interceptions), we will get an over abundance of the Philly ground game here.
Philly doesn’t have the strongest receiving corps to begin with, and they will have to use Westbrook a lot to consistently move the ball in this game. Running the ball will speed the game up and keep the score low. Last week, the Titans ran the ball 43 times for 235 yards in their 28-9 win. Both teams are a combined 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games in December and we see that trend continuing on Monday night. Look for Philly to grab a lead and just sit on it using their running game. Go with the UNDER.
Best of Luck, Lee.
Lee Kostroski 10* picks are usually pretty good ones.
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Your pick will be graded at: 39 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: 10* NFL Total of the Month - 83% run!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 10* Under the total, Cleveland vs. Philadelphia, 8:30 PM EST
Cleveland’s offensive struggles are the main reason we are taking the UNDER on this game. With Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn both sidelined with injuries, the Browns will start Ken Dorsey at quarterback for the second straight week. Last week in a 9-28 loss to the Titans, Dorsey was a mere 22/43 for 150 yards and 1 interception. We don’t see his production improving this week vs. a stingy Eagles defense. Even before Dorsey was handed the starting job, the Browns were struggling to score points. They have totaled just 21 points in the past three weeks (just 7 points per game). Their total yardage numbers the last three games are 240, 192 and 178. The Cleveland offense has been horrendous and now they face off against the 4th ranked defense in the NFL. The Eagles stop unit has completely shutdown two of the best offenses in the NFL the last two weeks. They held Arizona to just 20 points and 260 total yards two weeks ago. Last Sunday they topped the Giants 20-14. New York put together only 211 yards of total offense against this red hot defense. Not only that, their 14 points were even a bit deceiving as they scored one TD on a 71-yard blocked field goal return and the other TD came with just 20 seconds remaining in the game.
Back to the Browns and their defense which has actually been playing fairly well. Before giving up 28 points last week to the Titans, the Browns held Houston to just 16 points and Indianapolis to just 10 in back to back weeks. Cleveland is actually 3rd in the entire NFL in defensive efficiency allowing just one point for every 17 yards gained by their opponent. They have allowed 17 points or less in six of their last ten games. This team is decent on defense and really bad on offense. That combination leads to low scoring games.
The Eagles were in shambles after their 29 point loss to the Ravens, but as we mentioned, they bounced back nicely with big wins against the Cardinals and the Giants the last two weeks. Philly has been riding on the back of Brian Westbrook for the last two weeks as he has totaled 240 yards rushing. Eagle coach Andy Reid has really decided to lean on the run down the stretch and that has amounted to 81 rushes in the last two games. Don’t expect him to change his philosophy which has led to two straight wins. With the Browns ability to stop the pass (Cleveland has allowed an average of 185 yards passing the past three weeks, allowing just 3 touchdowns and forcing 6 interceptions), we will get an over abundance of the Philly ground game here.
Philly doesn’t have the strongest receiving corps to begin with, and they will have to use Westbrook a lot to consistently move the ball in this game. Running the ball will speed the game up and keep the score low. Last week, the Titans ran the ball 43 times for 235 yards in their 28-9 win. Both teams are a combined 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games in December and we see that trend continuing on Monday night. Look for Philly to grab a lead and just sit on it using their running game. Go with the UNDER.
Best of Luck, Lee.
Lee Kostroski 10* picks are usually pretty good ones.
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Leroy's Money Talks Invitational
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Semi-final #2:
Fat Jack
315 Bills +7
315 Bills UN41
308 Bengals UN36.5
325 Vikings +3
311 49ers +6.5
330 Cowboys -3
Best Bet:
320 Ravens -2.5
Fezzik
305 Lions +17
310 Falcons -3
311 49ers +6.5
314 Rams +3
320 Ravens -2.5
328 Raiders +7
Best Bet:
326 Cards -3
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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Semi-final #2:
Fat Jack
315 Bills +7
315 Bills UN41
308 Bengals UN36.5
325 Vikings +3
311 49ers +6.5
330 Cowboys -3
Best Bet:
320 Ravens -2.5
Fezzik
305 Lions +17
310 Falcons -3
311 49ers +6.5
314 Rams +3
320 Ravens -2.5
328 Raiders +7
Best Bet:
326 Cards -3
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