hno:
yourwinningpicks
****STRONG OPINION***ATLANTA FALCONS (-1) VS. New Orleans Saints: The Falcons have a long history of knocking off the Saints and that looks to be a likely development again this week. Atlanta predictably struggled on the road against the Eagles last week but they are a much better team at home. Matt Ryan continues his great play as a rookie and he will have an awful Saints defense to exploit here. New Orleans comes off a bye and a game in England before that. Rust will be an issue and Reggie Bush is out again. The Saints can still score in bunches but the Falcons have played better than expected on defense which should help them limit their effectiveness. The Falcons also qualify for a 34-10-1 ATS home rebound angle against a division foe. THE PICK: Atlanta Falcons (-1)
******STRONG OPINION****Carolina Panthers (-9.5) VS. OAKLAND RAIDERS: This is going to take some guts but the Raiders are the play this week at home against the very sound Carolina Panthers. Oakland played arguably the worst offense game in NFL history last week in failing to amass 100 yards offense against the Falcons. Carolina has never been a good bet as a favorite of more than 3 as they are 10-21-1 ATS in that situation. They also are a terrible West Coast team going 5-14 ATS in that scenario. Oakland qualifies for a 27-9-2 ATS home underdog angle against a non-division foe so the trends are clear in this contest. THE PICK: Oakland Raiders (+9.5)
*****BEST BET****Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) VS. DETROIT LIONS: The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven when giving more than 3 and this team just doesn’t have enough offense to stay clear of anyone. The Lions are playing better the last few weeks as they almost knocked off the Bears last week. They are still winless and thus qualify for that 27-4-2 ATS angle that plays on teams that are winless after week 5 and who are still winless after week 9. The Jags can’t get an consistency going since the season started and the Lions will be playing loose as their season is already over and they have nothing to lose here by going all out. THE PICK: Detroit Lions (+6.5)
*****BEST BET****NEW YORK JETS (-8.5) VS. St. Louis Rams: The Jets are in an awful spot this week as they are in a clear let down scenario off a huge win on the road against the Bills last week. I nailed them as a BEST BET last week in that game but am going the other way this week as they qualify for a 19-62-1 ATS home letdown angle. The Rams on the other hand qualify for a 45-20-2 ATS road underdog angle that plays on teams getting more than 7 against a non-division foe and they have been playing well under Jim Haslett. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams win this game outright here. THE PICK: St. Louis Rams (+8.5)
****BEST BET****MIAMI DOLPHINS (-8.5) VS. Seattle Seahawks: Seattle was dreadful last week against the Eagles as they got blown out at home after an early TD. No word on whether Matt Hasselbeck wil l be back but even if he is out, the Seahawks qualify for a 54-14-2 ATS road bounce back angle. They also qualify for a 20-4 ATS angle that plays on teams getting more than 7 against a team not over .500. Miami is in a letdown spot off a nice win against the Broncos. They are due for a dud after a string of strong performances as this team is still very flawed. THE PICK: Seattle Seahawks (+8.5)
****BEST BET****Baltimore Ravens (-1) VS. HOUSTON TEXANS: The Texans will be without QB Matt Schaub and will now turn to the fiery Sage Rosenfels. Rosenfels has proven he can win in this league and his gung-ho approach can either be very good or very bad. The Ravens can be thrown on as their secondary has been decimated by injuries and you have to figure Houston won’t rein it in with Schaub out. Baltimore is still bad on offense despite the great game last week by Joe Flacco. The Texans can run up and down the field with anyone and they are in a great spot as a home underdog. They qualify for a 48-29-1 ATS home underdog angle along with a 34-11-4 ATS home underdog angle against a non-division foe. Go with the Houston to steal one in this contest. THE PICK: Houston Texans (+1)
<!-- / message -->
****STRONG OPINION***ATLANTA FALCONS (-1) VS. New Orleans Saints: The Falcons have a long history of knocking off the Saints and that looks to be a likely development again this week. Atlanta predictably struggled on the road against the Eagles last week but they are a much better team at home. Matt Ryan continues his great play as a rookie and he will have an awful Saints defense to exploit here. New Orleans comes off a bye and a game in England before that. Rust will be an issue and Reggie Bush is out again. The Saints can still score in bunches but the Falcons have played better than expected on defense which should help them limit their effectiveness. The Falcons also qualify for a 34-10-1 ATS home rebound angle against a division foe. THE PICK: Atlanta Falcons (-1)
******STRONG OPINION****Carolina Panthers (-9.5) VS. OAKLAND RAIDERS: This is going to take some guts but the Raiders are the play this week at home against the very sound Carolina Panthers. Oakland played arguably the worst offense game in NFL history last week in failing to amass 100 yards offense against the Falcons. Carolina has never been a good bet as a favorite of more than 3 as they are 10-21-1 ATS in that situation. They also are a terrible West Coast team going 5-14 ATS in that scenario. Oakland qualifies for a 27-9-2 ATS home underdog angle against a non-division foe so the trends are clear in this contest. THE PICK: Oakland Raiders (+9.5)
*****BEST BET****Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) VS. DETROIT LIONS: The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their last seven when giving more than 3 and this team just doesn’t have enough offense to stay clear of anyone. The Lions are playing better the last few weeks as they almost knocked off the Bears last week. They are still winless and thus qualify for that 27-4-2 ATS angle that plays on teams that are winless after week 5 and who are still winless after week 9. The Jags can’t get an consistency going since the season started and the Lions will be playing loose as their season is already over and they have nothing to lose here by going all out. THE PICK: Detroit Lions (+6.5)
*****BEST BET****NEW YORK JETS (-8.5) VS. St. Louis Rams: The Jets are in an awful spot this week as they are in a clear let down scenario off a huge win on the road against the Bills last week. I nailed them as a BEST BET last week in that game but am going the other way this week as they qualify for a 19-62-1 ATS home letdown angle. The Rams on the other hand qualify for a 45-20-2 ATS road underdog angle that plays on teams getting more than 7 against a non-division foe and they have been playing well under Jim Haslett. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rams win this game outright here. THE PICK: St. Louis Rams (+8.5)
****BEST BET****MIAMI DOLPHINS (-8.5) VS. Seattle Seahawks: Seattle was dreadful last week against the Eagles as they got blown out at home after an early TD. No word on whether Matt Hasselbeck wil l be back but even if he is out, the Seahawks qualify for a 54-14-2 ATS road bounce back angle. They also qualify for a 20-4 ATS angle that plays on teams getting more than 7 against a team not over .500. Miami is in a letdown spot off a nice win against the Broncos. They are due for a dud after a string of strong performances as this team is still very flawed. THE PICK: Seattle Seahawks (+8.5)
****BEST BET****Baltimore Ravens (-1) VS. HOUSTON TEXANS: The Texans will be without QB Matt Schaub and will now turn to the fiery Sage Rosenfels. Rosenfels has proven he can win in this league and his gung-ho approach can either be very good or very bad. The Ravens can be thrown on as their secondary has been decimated by injuries and you have to figure Houston won’t rein it in with Schaub out. Baltimore is still bad on offense despite the great game last week by Joe Flacco. The Texans can run up and down the field with anyone and they are in a great spot as a home underdog. They qualify for a 48-29-1 ATS home underdog angle along with a 34-11-4 ATS home underdog angle against a non-division foe. Go with the Houston to steal one in this contest. THE PICK: Houston Texans (+1)
<!-- / message -->
