Kevin's Pick(s):
We picked up a WINNER with the Over on Thursday, and hit the first leg of our teaser with the Redskins +15.5 remaining.
*I'm adding another 2 units on the Redskins against the spread. If you didn't get 2 units in on the teaser with Redskins pending I would have Redskins as a 4 unit play.
2 UNIT = Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers - REDSKINS +9 (+100)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
2 UNIT = Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts - JAGUARS +14 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
2 UNIT = Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots - LIONS +7 (-109)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.84 units)
2 UNIT = St Louis Rams @ San Diego Chargers - CHARGERS -5 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
4 UNIT = Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants - OVER 47.5 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 3.81 units)
Kyle's Pick(s)
4 UNIT = Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks - SEAHAWKS -7 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 4.00 units to win 3.64 units)
Let me start off by saying that I can't recall in a long time when the public was fading the Seahawks at home. I appears that the public is going to ride the dog in this game, which doesn't seem so stupid backing a 9-1 +7 underdog. However, I think this situation bodes well for the Seattle Seahawks. We have the Cardinals that are coming off a 14-6 over the Lions, and the Seahawks got downed by the Chiefs 24-20 in Kansas City. In my opinion the public is basing their picks off of last week. As we all know that will lead you to the poor house by doing it on a consistent basis. I am willing to bet that most people with money on the Cardinals this week didn't watch their game last week. The Cardinals scored a couple of quick touchdowns to go up 14-0 early, but after that the offense was completely neutralized. The Lions made some adjustments on defense and Drew Stanton didn't know what to do with the ball other than pass it to the other team. Stanton tossed a couple of interceptions right to the Lions, but they couldn't take advantage of it. At home, the Seahawks should be able to take advantage of Stanton's mistakes. This is the same team that blew the Packers out at home remember. The same Packers team that a lot of people have going to the Super Bowl. They slipped up against the Dallas Cowboys, a 30-23 loss, but the Hawks have still only loss twice at home in the last two years. Who was the other team to do it? The Cardinals. I see this as a revenge angle in the Seahawks' favor. There is a huge motivational edge to the Seahawks in this game for multiple reasons. The Cardinals are sitting pretty with a lead in the NFC West, meanwhile with a 6-4 record for the Seahawks, they should treat this like a playoff game. Despite the loss at home, they are still beating teams by an average of 10 points per game in Seattle. Their most recent outing at home was a 38-17 beat down of the Giants. Since 2012 the Seahawks cover 63.3% of the time after coming off a loss. I think Stanton is in for a rude awakening in Seattle this week. For all of the talk about the Cardinals' defense, they can be exploited through the air as they own the 27th best pass defense in the NFL. It looks like a win and cover for the Seahawks in week 12.
2 UNIT = Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons - FALCONS -3 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
For as bad as the Falcons have been this season, they were actually one less Lions penalty away from being on a three game winning streak at the moment. If you recall, in London the Lions missed a game winning field goal, but were saved by a delay of game penalty which gave Matt Prater another opportunity to win the game. The Falcons responded with wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers. Not the most daunting opponents, but they needed to get back in the win column for some confidence. Owner Arthur Blank called the team out after the Lions game, so I am pretty sure that had something to do with the better efforts as well. It really is inexcusable for a team with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White on the same field to be 2 games below .500. Throw in Devin Hester and they should have a dymanic offense, but it seems to me there is an effort problem in Atlanta. I think the remarks from Arthur Blank after blowing that Lions game reignited a spark under them a little bit. Note that the Falcons are 2-1 at home, not 2-2, the 2nd loss doesn't take into account the loss in London. The Falcons have wins over the Saints and Bucs at home, with their lone loss coming to the Bears. This is about the part where I think the Browns fall on their faces. They won three straight, including a win over the Bengals, but the offense was out of sync last week against the Texans, scoring only 7 points. The Browns sent Ben Tate to waivers, later claimed by the Vikings, which left Isaiah Crowell as the starter. Starting quarterback Brian Hoyer had 50 attempts for the Browns last week, 30-50. That is not how the Browns are going to win games. They need some resemblance of a running game to set the offense up. They are now moving forward without a reliable running back, and center Alex Mack is out for the season. The Falcons have a poor pass defense and the Browns should pass plenty more this week. While the Falcons have trouble defending the air attack, they should be able to play well this week against what should be a predictable offense. The Browns did lose earlier in the season to the Jaguars on the road, a game in which I called. The Falcons have been on the road four straight weeks if you can believe that. This isn't the same unbeatable Matt Ryan at home squad like we once knew, but they still have a great home field advantage in the Georgia Dome. At 4-6 the Falcons still have time to turn the season around. I think they'll at least be going in the right direction after winning their third in a row against the Browns on Sunday.
Cheers,
Kevin
