NFLBetting Picks / Kevin
2 UNIT = Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers – REDSKINS +9 (+100)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
Kyle’s Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons – FALCONS -3 (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
For as bad as the Falcons have been this season, they were actually one less Lions penalty away from being on a three game winning streak at the moment. If you recall, in London the Lions missed a game winning field goal, but were saved by a delay of game penalty which gave Matt Prater another opportunity to win the game. The Falcons responded with wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers. Not the most daunting opponents, but they needed to get back in the win column for some confidence. Owner Arthur Blank called the team out after the Lions game, so I am pretty sure that had something to do with the better efforts as well. It really is inexcusable for a team with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White on the same field to be 2 games below .500. Throw in Devin Hester and they should have a dymanic offense, but it seems to me there is an effort problem in Atlanta. I think the remarks from Arthur Blank after blowing that Lions game reignited a spark under them a little bit. Note that the Falcons are 2-1 at home, not 2-2, the 2nd loss doesn’t take into account the loss in London. The Falcons have wins over the Saints and Bucs at home, with their lone loss coming to the Bears. This is about the part where I think the Browns fall on their faces. They won three straight, including a win over the Bengals, but the offense was out of sync last week against the Texans, scoring only 7 points. The Browns sent Ben Tate to waivers, later claimed by the Vikings, which left Isaiah Crowell as the starter. Starting quarterback Brian Hoyer had 50 attempts for the Browns last week, 30-50. That is not how the Browns are going to win games. They need some resemblance of a running game to set the offense up. They are now moving forward without a reliable running back, and center Alex Mack is out for the season. The Falcons have a poor pass defense and the Browns should pass plenty more this week. While the Falcons have trouble defending the air attack, they should be able to play well this week against what should be a predictable offense. The Browns did lose earlier in the season to the Jaguars on the road, a game in which I called. The Falcons have been on the road four straight weeks if you can believe that. This isn’t the same unbeatable Matt Ryan at home squad like we once knew, but they still have a great home field advantage in the Georgia Dome. At 4-6 the Falcons still have time to turn the season around. I think they’ll at least be going in the right direction after winning their third in a row against the Browns on Sunday.
2 UNIT = Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers – REDSKINS +9 (+100)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
Kyle’s Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons – FALCONS -3 (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
For as bad as the Falcons have been this season, they were actually one less Lions penalty away from being on a three game winning streak at the moment. If you recall, in London the Lions missed a game winning field goal, but were saved by a delay of game penalty which gave Matt Prater another opportunity to win the game. The Falcons responded with wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers. Not the most daunting opponents, but they needed to get back in the win column for some confidence. Owner Arthur Blank called the team out after the Lions game, so I am pretty sure that had something to do with the better efforts as well. It really is inexcusable for a team with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White on the same field to be 2 games below .500. Throw in Devin Hester and they should have a dymanic offense, but it seems to me there is an effort problem in Atlanta. I think the remarks from Arthur Blank after blowing that Lions game reignited a spark under them a little bit. Note that the Falcons are 2-1 at home, not 2-2, the 2nd loss doesn’t take into account the loss in London. The Falcons have wins over the Saints and Bucs at home, with their lone loss coming to the Bears. This is about the part where I think the Browns fall on their faces. They won three straight, including a win over the Bengals, but the offense was out of sync last week against the Texans, scoring only 7 points. The Browns sent Ben Tate to waivers, later claimed by the Vikings, which left Isaiah Crowell as the starter. Starting quarterback Brian Hoyer had 50 attempts for the Browns last week, 30-50. That is not how the Browns are going to win games. They need some resemblance of a running game to set the offense up. They are now moving forward without a reliable running back, and center Alex Mack is out for the season. The Falcons have a poor pass defense and the Browns should pass plenty more this week. While the Falcons have trouble defending the air attack, they should be able to play well this week against what should be a predictable offense. The Browns did lose earlier in the season to the Jaguars on the road, a game in which I called. The Falcons have been on the road four straight weeks if you can believe that. This isn’t the same unbeatable Matt Ryan at home squad like we once knew, but they still have a great home field advantage in the Georgia Dome. At 4-6 the Falcons still have time to turn the season around. I think they’ll at least be going in the right direction after winning their third in a row against the Browns on Sunday.
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
CFL | MONTREAL at HAMILTON
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HAMILTON) off a home win over a division rival
50-15 since 1997. ( 76.9% | 33.5 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )
CFL | EDMONTON at CALGARY
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (EDMONTON) an average offensive team (23-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-32 PPG) after 9+ games, after allowing 14 points or less last game
26-3 since 1997. ( 89.7% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
CFL | EDMONTON at CALGARY
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (EDMONTON) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season
25-4 since 1997. ( 86.2% | 20.6 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
CFL | MONTREAL at HAMILTON
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (HAMILTON) off a home win over a division rival
50-15 since 1997. ( 76.9% | 33.5 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 3.0 units )
CFL | EDMONTON at CALGARY
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (EDMONTON) an average offensive team (23-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-32 PPG) after 9+ games, after allowing 14 points or less last game
26-3 since 1997. ( 89.7% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
CFL | EDMONTON at CALGARY
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (EDMONTON) after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season
25-4 since 1997. ( 86.2% | 20.6 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
NFL | GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA
Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more straight overs, excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.3 units )
NFL | DETROIT at NEW ENGLAND
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) off a road loss, in weeks 10 through 13
54-43 over the last 10 seasons. ( 55.7% | 0.0 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )
NFL | ARIZONA at SEATTLE
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (ARIZONA) after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, after the first month of the season
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | TAMPA BAY at CHICAGO
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (CHICAGO) off a home win against opponent off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog 40-17 over the last 10 seasons. ( 70.2% | 0.0 units ) 3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA
Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off 1 or more straight overs, excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.3 units )
NFL | DETROIT at NEW ENGLAND
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) off a road loss, in weeks 10 through 13
54-43 over the last 10 seasons. ( 55.7% | 0.0 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )
NFL | ARIZONA at SEATTLE
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (ARIZONA) after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, after the first month of the season
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | TAMPA BAY at CHICAGO
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (CHICAGO) off a home win against opponent off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog 40-17 over the last 10 seasons. ( 70.2% | 0.0 units ) 3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )
Randall The Handle
BEST BETS
Buccaneers (2-8) at Bears (4-6)
LINE: CHICAGO by 6
When Josh McCown came to Tampa Bay from Chicago, there were 17 new starters, a new coaching staff and a history of losing. It was no wonder that the 35-year-old career journeyman lost his first three games before getting hurt and then lost a tough one upon his return two weeks ago despite throwing for 300-plus yards. Finally, things came together last week in an upset win at Washington as the veteran QB found emerging star receiver Mike Evans seven times for 209 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With some injured defensive players back on the field and with McCown becoming more familiar with his mates, the Buccaneers should see some continued improvement. Even with its poor record, this team is playing hard. They would like nothing more than to win for coach Lovie Smith who will also face his former employers. The Bears can’t be trusted and even in their first home win a week ago, QB Jay Cutler tossed two more interceptions. Chicago has been favoured by three or more twice this season and lost both games straight up. Tampa has covered four straight as road dogs and should have little trouble adding to that total here.
TAKING: BUCCANEERS +6
Browns (6-4) at Falcons (4-6)
LINE: ATLANTA by 3½
The Falcons are feeling good after climbing to the top of the NFC South to be the best of the worst. Atlanta has a swagger because it has won consecutive games. Dirty Birds are also happy to be home for first time since Oct. 12 (how does that happen?). It may seem the Browns are walking into a lion’s den. Except it’s more like a kitten’s basket. You see, the only teams that the Falcons have defeated are the ones that reside in their dreadful division. Four wins versus the NFC South, six losses everywhere else. Cleveland is from another division, the hotly contested AFC North. And guess what? The Browns get their best player back this week when WR Josh Gordon takes the field after serving a 10-game suspension. The Brownies claim that Gordon could be limited in his return. Ha ha, that’s so funny. All Gordon did was lead the league in receiving yards a year ago despite missing two games. Receiver Andrew Hawkins also returned last week. Atlanta’s pass defence is abysmal. Browns are best when taking points. Cleveland wins this game straight up.
TAKING: BROWNS +3½
Ravens (6-4) at Saints (4-6)
LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 3
We’re not ready to write off the Saints just yet. Yes, New Orleans has lost consecutive home games, but that doesn’t wipe out their 18-3-1 mark against the spread in its past 22 here played with coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees teaming up. That duo has demonstrated the fortitude to overcome a loss as they have posted a 21-6 ATS mark after a defeat, including a 16-3 ATS record on this field. The Saints have been their own worst enemies and Brees has made uncharacteristic boo boos that have cost his side. However, Brees and his troops can move the ball. They lead the league in first downs and have punted the fewest times. The Ravens are not built to stop this type of team. The loss of DB Jimmy Smith cannot be overstated as Smith was by their top guy in the secondary and his absence has players being shifted into unfamiliar positions. Baltimore is ranked 21st in pass defence while New Orleans’ passing offence is ranked third-best. The Ravens won’t be facing a rookie QB at home like they did against the Titans in Baltimore’s last game.
TAKING: SAINTS -3
THE REST
Titans (2-8) at Eagles (7-3)
LINE: PHILADELPHIA BY 11
This is more Mark Sanchez’s speed. The lowly Titans arrive here on a short week after exerting a lot of energy in a near-miss at home to Pittsburgh. Without hope of a playoff appearance and no more prime-time games scheduled, Tennessee can ride off into the sunset for yet another year. Meanwhile, the Eagles are in a battle with the Cowboys for the NFC East and, after last week’s embarrassing meltdown in Green Bay, you can bet that Chip Kelly will be pulling out all stops for this one. Titans averaging less than 17 points per game. That won’t cut it here.
TAKING: EAGLES -11
Lions (7-3) at Patriots (8-2)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 7
Tom Brady and his New England offence are putting up some freakish numbers lately and while it’s difficult to fade the Patriots while they are behaving this way, good defences are capable of stopping the hottest of offences. The Lions happen to sport the league’s top-ranked stop unit and Brady has struggled when facing this calibre of opponent. The Pats lost straight up to Kansas City and Miami, who rank second and fourth respectively on defence. Brady could only muster up passer ratings of 59.9 and 69.7 in those two games. Detroit is not scoring much, but by taking the most points they’ve been offered all season, they don’t really have to.
TAKING: LIONS +7
Packers (7-3) at Vikings (4-6)
LINE: GREEN BAY by 10
Do you know what happens after back-to-back 50-point games? Teams don’t get another 50. Green Bay may not need that many to win here, but after toying with a couple of opponents up in Wisconsin, the Packers can take it easier against this lesser foe. The Pack already disposed of these Vikes 42-10 in October, but that was a Thursday night with useless Christian Ponder forced into action for Minnesota. The Vikings cannot win a shootout. They will have to play defence and they’ve shown they can, holding three of their past five foes to less than 17 points. Green Bay was 8½ at Lambeau. They shouldn’t be more than that at Minnesota.
TAKING: VIKINGS +10
Jaguars (1-9) at Colts (6-4)
LINE: INDIANAPOLIS by 13½
What looked like a cake walk to the AFC South division has now become a horse race with Houston sitting just one game behind the Colts. Combine that with Indianapolis’ dismantling at the hands of the Patriots last week and you can bet Indy will be all business on this day. These are the type of teams the Colts like to beat up on. They’ve done it once already to the Jaguars in an earlier 44-17 laugher. While Jacksonville has shown some spurts of improvement, its offence remains its albatross, scoring more than 17 points only twice this season. The Jags’ 28th-ranked pass defence will also have trouble slowing this top opposing unit.
TAKING: COLTS -13½
Bengals (6-3-1) at Texans (5-5)
LINE: HOUSTON by 1½
The Bengals are the new Cowboys. On the bandwagon. Off the bandwagon. Back on the bandwagon. We know what’s coming next. After upsetting the Saints in New Orleans last week, the public will be putting its faith and dollars back with Cincinnati here against a suspect opponent. However, we’re not sure that Cincinnati can pull off back-to-back road wins. Houston now has a guy that can throw a ball more than 15 yards toward the sidelines as Ryan Mallett will get his second start after taking down Cleveland last week. The Texans are so much better when Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are in the mix.
TAKING: TEXANS -1½
Jets (2-8) at Bills (5-5)
LINE: BUFFALO by 4
After a 5-3 record quickly became 5-5, Buffalo’s season is slipping away quicker than a toboggan on an icy hill. The defence has held up its end of the bargain, but the same can’t be said for an anemic offence that has surpassed 17 points only twice in its past eight games. However, the Jets are unreliable and have not won a road game this season. Buffalo was aided by a bunch of Geno Smith gaffes in the first meeting, paving the way for a 43-23 Bills win. While Michael Vick is an improvement, he’s still Michael Vick. Buffalo’s pass rush and strong “D” should fluster the aging QB. This game has been moved out of Buffalo because of the massive snowfall that has beset the city.
TAKING: BILLS -4
Cardinals (9-1) at Seahawks (6-4)
LINE: SEATTLE by 6½
Cards have been good to us and they still can be, albeit from the other side. Two of QB Drew Stanton’s three wins were at home. The other was at the 3-7 Giants. Now Arizona’s backup QB will play in the league’s toughest venue against a Seattle team that is in a must-win situation. Seattle sits three games behind today’s visitor and a loss would mean the division and possibly worse. However, while Arizona owns the league’s best record, they have actually been outgained on the season. It can attribute much success to its +12 turnover ratio, but that may not work here. Also, Seattle is 8-0 ATS as a home favourite of seven points or less.
TAKING: SEAHAWKS -6½
Rams (4-6) at Chargers (6-4)
LINE: SAN DIEGO by 4½
Sure, the Chargers came back from their bye to defeat the Raiders but a closely fought 13-6 victory is not exactly a signature win. That one came on the heels of a three-game losing streak. It has been reported that QB Philip Rivers is suffering from a significant rib injury and that could be one of the reasons that San Diego’s offensive production has slowed right down, scoring just 54 points in its past four games. Conversely, the Rams are coming around. St. Louis has already knocked off Seattle, San Francisco and most recently, Denver. Much can be attributed to a pesky defence, fresh off an effort that held Peyton Manning & Co. to a season low seven points.
TAKING: RAMS +4½
Dolphins (6-4) at Broncos (7-3)
LINE: DENVER by 7
Do you really want to trust the Broncos to win by more than a touchdown right now against one of the better defensive teams in the league? We don’t. As the season wears on, teams see more and more tape of their opponents and things get figured out. That’s not to say that Peyton Manning and his group are easy to stop, but Miami is a quality team that matches up well against a suddenly struggling Denver squad. The Fish have won four of their past five and they arrive here following a 10-day rest. The Broncos are banged up and it shows. This is a very generous offering for where these two are at.
TAKING: DOLPHINS +7
Redskins (3-7) at 49ers (6-4)
LINE: SAN FRANCISCO by 9
No one wants to touch the Redskins this week as there is obvious discord between coach and quarterback. That unrest is definitely a concern, but of equal concern is San Francisco’s pop-gun offence. The Niners have topped 17 points only once in their past four games and struggles in the red zone continue to plague them. The Giants handed San Fran the ball five times last week and the 49ers still only managed 16 points. Another concern here for the home side is the look-ahead factor. Seattle will be making a visit here this upcoming Thanksgiving Thursday, a game that likely has huge playoff implications. The ’Skins’ mental makeup has us cautious, but they’re still the way to go.
TAKING: REDSKINS +9
Cowboys (7-3) at Giants (3-7)
LINE: DALLAS by 3½
Outta sight, outta mind? Dallas has been off for two weeks after winning in London against the dreadful Jaguars, but the ’Boys had dropped a pair of home games prior to that. Tony Romo’s back should be doing better, but even so, we’re not anxious to spot these road points against a Giants team that could see its productivity increase. RB Rashad Jennings will be fresh after playing last week, returning from an injury. His presence gives Eli Manning some much-needed options and, with receiver Odell Beckham ascending weekly, Dallas will have its hands full. The Cowboys were 4½-point faves at home in this matchup a month ago. Should they be 3½ at the Giants?
TAKING: GIANTS +3½
BEST BETS
Buccaneers (2-8) at Bears (4-6)
LINE: CHICAGO by 6
When Josh McCown came to Tampa Bay from Chicago, there were 17 new starters, a new coaching staff and a history of losing. It was no wonder that the 35-year-old career journeyman lost his first three games before getting hurt and then lost a tough one upon his return two weeks ago despite throwing for 300-plus yards. Finally, things came together last week in an upset win at Washington as the veteran QB found emerging star receiver Mike Evans seven times for 209 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With some injured defensive players back on the field and with McCown becoming more familiar with his mates, the Buccaneers should see some continued improvement. Even with its poor record, this team is playing hard. They would like nothing more than to win for coach Lovie Smith who will also face his former employers. The Bears can’t be trusted and even in their first home win a week ago, QB Jay Cutler tossed two more interceptions. Chicago has been favoured by three or more twice this season and lost both games straight up. Tampa has covered four straight as road dogs and should have little trouble adding to that total here.
TAKING: BUCCANEERS +6
Browns (6-4) at Falcons (4-6)
LINE: ATLANTA by 3½
The Falcons are feeling good after climbing to the top of the NFC South to be the best of the worst. Atlanta has a swagger because it has won consecutive games. Dirty Birds are also happy to be home for first time since Oct. 12 (how does that happen?). It may seem the Browns are walking into a lion’s den. Except it’s more like a kitten’s basket. You see, the only teams that the Falcons have defeated are the ones that reside in their dreadful division. Four wins versus the NFC South, six losses everywhere else. Cleveland is from another division, the hotly contested AFC North. And guess what? The Browns get their best player back this week when WR Josh Gordon takes the field after serving a 10-game suspension. The Brownies claim that Gordon could be limited in his return. Ha ha, that’s so funny. All Gordon did was lead the league in receiving yards a year ago despite missing two games. Receiver Andrew Hawkins also returned last week. Atlanta’s pass defence is abysmal. Browns are best when taking points. Cleveland wins this game straight up.
TAKING: BROWNS +3½
Ravens (6-4) at Saints (4-6)
LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 3
We’re not ready to write off the Saints just yet. Yes, New Orleans has lost consecutive home games, but that doesn’t wipe out their 18-3-1 mark against the spread in its past 22 here played with coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees teaming up. That duo has demonstrated the fortitude to overcome a loss as they have posted a 21-6 ATS mark after a defeat, including a 16-3 ATS record on this field. The Saints have been their own worst enemies and Brees has made uncharacteristic boo boos that have cost his side. However, Brees and his troops can move the ball. They lead the league in first downs and have punted the fewest times. The Ravens are not built to stop this type of team. The loss of DB Jimmy Smith cannot be overstated as Smith was by their top guy in the secondary and his absence has players being shifted into unfamiliar positions. Baltimore is ranked 21st in pass defence while New Orleans’ passing offence is ranked third-best. The Ravens won’t be facing a rookie QB at home like they did against the Titans in Baltimore’s last game.
TAKING: SAINTS -3
THE REST
Titans (2-8) at Eagles (7-3)
LINE: PHILADELPHIA BY 11
This is more Mark Sanchez’s speed. The lowly Titans arrive here on a short week after exerting a lot of energy in a near-miss at home to Pittsburgh. Without hope of a playoff appearance and no more prime-time games scheduled, Tennessee can ride off into the sunset for yet another year. Meanwhile, the Eagles are in a battle with the Cowboys for the NFC East and, after last week’s embarrassing meltdown in Green Bay, you can bet that Chip Kelly will be pulling out all stops for this one. Titans averaging less than 17 points per game. That won’t cut it here.
TAKING: EAGLES -11
Lions (7-3) at Patriots (8-2)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 7
Tom Brady and his New England offence are putting up some freakish numbers lately and while it’s difficult to fade the Patriots while they are behaving this way, good defences are capable of stopping the hottest of offences. The Lions happen to sport the league’s top-ranked stop unit and Brady has struggled when facing this calibre of opponent. The Pats lost straight up to Kansas City and Miami, who rank second and fourth respectively on defence. Brady could only muster up passer ratings of 59.9 and 69.7 in those two games. Detroit is not scoring much, but by taking the most points they’ve been offered all season, they don’t really have to.
TAKING: LIONS +7
Packers (7-3) at Vikings (4-6)
LINE: GREEN BAY by 10
Do you know what happens after back-to-back 50-point games? Teams don’t get another 50. Green Bay may not need that many to win here, but after toying with a couple of opponents up in Wisconsin, the Packers can take it easier against this lesser foe. The Pack already disposed of these Vikes 42-10 in October, but that was a Thursday night with useless Christian Ponder forced into action for Minnesota. The Vikings cannot win a shootout. They will have to play defence and they’ve shown they can, holding three of their past five foes to less than 17 points. Green Bay was 8½ at Lambeau. They shouldn’t be more than that at Minnesota.
TAKING: VIKINGS +10
Jaguars (1-9) at Colts (6-4)
LINE: INDIANAPOLIS by 13½
What looked like a cake walk to the AFC South division has now become a horse race with Houston sitting just one game behind the Colts. Combine that with Indianapolis’ dismantling at the hands of the Patriots last week and you can bet Indy will be all business on this day. These are the type of teams the Colts like to beat up on. They’ve done it once already to the Jaguars in an earlier 44-17 laugher. While Jacksonville has shown some spurts of improvement, its offence remains its albatross, scoring more than 17 points only twice this season. The Jags’ 28th-ranked pass defence will also have trouble slowing this top opposing unit.
TAKING: COLTS -13½
Bengals (6-3-1) at Texans (5-5)
LINE: HOUSTON by 1½
The Bengals are the new Cowboys. On the bandwagon. Off the bandwagon. Back on the bandwagon. We know what’s coming next. After upsetting the Saints in New Orleans last week, the public will be putting its faith and dollars back with Cincinnati here against a suspect opponent. However, we’re not sure that Cincinnati can pull off back-to-back road wins. Houston now has a guy that can throw a ball more than 15 yards toward the sidelines as Ryan Mallett will get his second start after taking down Cleveland last week. The Texans are so much better when Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins are in the mix.
TAKING: TEXANS -1½
Jets (2-8) at Bills (5-5)
LINE: BUFFALO by 4
After a 5-3 record quickly became 5-5, Buffalo’s season is slipping away quicker than a toboggan on an icy hill. The defence has held up its end of the bargain, but the same can’t be said for an anemic offence that has surpassed 17 points only twice in its past eight games. However, the Jets are unreliable and have not won a road game this season. Buffalo was aided by a bunch of Geno Smith gaffes in the first meeting, paving the way for a 43-23 Bills win. While Michael Vick is an improvement, he’s still Michael Vick. Buffalo’s pass rush and strong “D” should fluster the aging QB. This game has been moved out of Buffalo because of the massive snowfall that has beset the city.
TAKING: BILLS -4
Cardinals (9-1) at Seahawks (6-4)
LINE: SEATTLE by 6½
Cards have been good to us and they still can be, albeit from the other side. Two of QB Drew Stanton’s three wins were at home. The other was at the 3-7 Giants. Now Arizona’s backup QB will play in the league’s toughest venue against a Seattle team that is in a must-win situation. Seattle sits three games behind today’s visitor and a loss would mean the division and possibly worse. However, while Arizona owns the league’s best record, they have actually been outgained on the season. It can attribute much success to its +12 turnover ratio, but that may not work here. Also, Seattle is 8-0 ATS as a home favourite of seven points or less.
TAKING: SEAHAWKS -6½
Rams (4-6) at Chargers (6-4)
LINE: SAN DIEGO by 4½
Sure, the Chargers came back from their bye to defeat the Raiders but a closely fought 13-6 victory is not exactly a signature win. That one came on the heels of a three-game losing streak. It has been reported that QB Philip Rivers is suffering from a significant rib injury and that could be one of the reasons that San Diego’s offensive production has slowed right down, scoring just 54 points in its past four games. Conversely, the Rams are coming around. St. Louis has already knocked off Seattle, San Francisco and most recently, Denver. Much can be attributed to a pesky defence, fresh off an effort that held Peyton Manning & Co. to a season low seven points.
TAKING: RAMS +4½
Dolphins (6-4) at Broncos (7-3)
LINE: DENVER by 7
Do you really want to trust the Broncos to win by more than a touchdown right now against one of the better defensive teams in the league? We don’t. As the season wears on, teams see more and more tape of their opponents and things get figured out. That’s not to say that Peyton Manning and his group are easy to stop, but Miami is a quality team that matches up well against a suddenly struggling Denver squad. The Fish have won four of their past five and they arrive here following a 10-day rest. The Broncos are banged up and it shows. This is a very generous offering for where these two are at.
TAKING: DOLPHINS +7
Redskins (3-7) at 49ers (6-4)
LINE: SAN FRANCISCO by 9
No one wants to touch the Redskins this week as there is obvious discord between coach and quarterback. That unrest is definitely a concern, but of equal concern is San Francisco’s pop-gun offence. The Niners have topped 17 points only once in their past four games and struggles in the red zone continue to plague them. The Giants handed San Fran the ball five times last week and the 49ers still only managed 16 points. Another concern here for the home side is the look-ahead factor. Seattle will be making a visit here this upcoming Thanksgiving Thursday, a game that likely has huge playoff implications. The ’Skins’ mental makeup has us cautious, but they’re still the way to go.
TAKING: REDSKINS +9
Cowboys (7-3) at Giants (3-7)
LINE: DALLAS by 3½
Outta sight, outta mind? Dallas has been off for two weeks after winning in London against the dreadful Jaguars, but the ’Boys had dropped a pair of home games prior to that. Tony Romo’s back should be doing better, but even so, we’re not anxious to spot these road points against a Giants team that could see its productivity increase. RB Rashad Jennings will be fresh after playing last week, returning from an injury. His presence gives Eli Manning some much-needed options and, with receiver Odell Beckham ascending weekly, Dallas will have its hands full. The Cowboys were 4½-point faves at home in this matchup a month ago. Should they be 3½ at the Giants?
TAKING: GIANTS +3½
WAYNE ROOT NFL TRUST
Millionaires---Washington
No Limit-------Seattle
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Perfect Play---NY Giants
The NY Giants still have some time to improve on their 3-7 record, including 2-3 at home. They will have an opportunity to do so as they host the Dallas Cowboys at Meadowlands Stadium. They are not as bad as the media makes them out. New York can count on several components of their team to play effectively. Eli Manning has already thrown for 2495 yards, capping it off with 18 touchdown passes. But the secondary of the Giants has been effective as well. They have relied on players like Antrel Rolle and Mathias Kiwanuka to hold teams to low scores. Banged up Romo could do just enough to get Dallas on track for a much needed win but they somehow seem to makes costly mistakes when they play in Giant Stadium. TAKE NY GIANTS
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Inner Circle---Detroit...........NFL Road Warrior of Year
In week 12 NFL action, the Detroit Lions will try to slow down the red hot New England Patriots when they visit Gillette Stadium. I think it's more of New England slowing itself down. Teams cannot continue to play at the level the patriots have. It also helps that Detroit is a very good defensive team. Detroit’s is currently tied with Green Bay for first place in the NFC North Division. Again, let's focus on Championship quality teams in this game and we need to remind us it's about defense. Detroit’s #1 overall defense will be pushed to their limits to stop Tom Brady and company. Detroit ranks #1 in rushing defense, 5th in passing defense and have are allowing an average of 15.6 points per game. That will stop Tom! Detroit can use an offensive boost from Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush to keep pace in this one. The Lions should be able to slow down the running game and get some pressure on Brady up the middle. TAKE DETROIT
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Pinnacle-------Minnesota.......NFL Knockout of Year
Taking double-digits in any NFL game is usually the way to go. Taking them at home is very profitable. Taking them with-in the same division is a "must". The Minnesota Vikings will try to do the impossible and slow down the Green Bay machine on offense. The Vikings come into this match-up in last place in the NFC North, three full games behind the Packers and Lions. Minnesota has won two of their last three games and have managed to stay competitive most weeks.
Minnesota has an underrated defense that ranks 12th in total defense and allow an average of 22.0 points per game. The Packers rank 25th in total defense and allow an average of 22.5 points per game. This game will be competitive through-out the contest. The public is in love with Aaron Rodgers. This line opened at 7.5 and will continue to go up as the public continues to ride Aaron Rodgers and company. Minnesota is already getting 10 points in some places, and getting a home dog at that many points with their defense is the right side. Vikings at home are just a much better team and the cold conditions should help keep down the Packers high flying passing game. TAKE MINNESOTA
Joe Gavazzi
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-13-) 1:00 PM EST
The Jags have taken it in the chops on numerous occasions from Indy. The 44-17 week 3 home loss to the Colts now makes it 4 consecutive defeats vs Indy by an average score of 39-10. The Jags’ offense remains largely pathetic, scoring more than 17 points only twice. Today, they travel to Indy, where they will be at the wrong place at the wrong time, for the Colts were just embarrassed on this very field by the New England Patriots on SNF by a score of 42-20. All you need to know is that under the watch of QB Luck, Indianapolis is 12-1 SU ATS following a defeat, and that the Colts have now won and covered 10 consecutive games against divisional opponents.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-1) 1:00 PM EST
Houston caught Cleveland in a flat spot last week and delivered a 23-7 road victory, outrushing the Browns 213-58. That is the same Cleveland team who the week before defeated this very Bengal contingent by a count of 24-3. Forewarned is forearmed. Now the Texans look to build on that momentum behind rookie QB Mallett, and a #31 ranked pass defense that is allowing 279 PYPG. Far prefer the Cincinnati momentum to continue. The Bengals began this season 3-0 SU ATS; following their BYE week, they dipped to 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, losing road games at New England and Indy (no shame there). But the Bengals have bounced since that 27-0 shutout at Indy by going 3-1 SU ATS to claim the division lead. That includes a 27-10 upset win at New Orleans last week, in which they outrushed the Saints 186-75. Know that the Bengals have a continuing history of creating momentum, for they are 15-2 SU ATS following exactly one victory, both SU and ATS. In a similar way, this momentum is created when Cinci plays on the road following an underdog victory, in which they allow 10 or fewer points, with a 63% ATS winning mark. Playing to retain the division lead, I like Cincinnati to follow their patterns and record this victory.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-13-) 1:00 PM EST
The Jags have taken it in the chops on numerous occasions from Indy. The 44-17 week 3 home loss to the Colts now makes it 4 consecutive defeats vs Indy by an average score of 39-10. The Jags’ offense remains largely pathetic, scoring more than 17 points only twice. Today, they travel to Indy, where they will be at the wrong place at the wrong time, for the Colts were just embarrassed on this very field by the New England Patriots on SNF by a score of 42-20. All you need to know is that under the watch of QB Luck, Indianapolis is 12-1 SU ATS following a defeat, and that the Colts have now won and covered 10 consecutive games against divisional opponents.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-1) 1:00 PM EST
Houston caught Cleveland in a flat spot last week and delivered a 23-7 road victory, outrushing the Browns 213-58. That is the same Cleveland team who the week before defeated this very Bengal contingent by a count of 24-3. Forewarned is forearmed. Now the Texans look to build on that momentum behind rookie QB Mallett, and a #31 ranked pass defense that is allowing 279 PYPG. Far prefer the Cincinnati momentum to continue. The Bengals began this season 3-0 SU ATS; following their BYE week, they dipped to 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, losing road games at New England and Indy (no shame there). But the Bengals have bounced since that 27-0 shutout at Indy by going 3-1 SU ATS to claim the division lead. That includes a 27-10 upset win at New Orleans last week, in which they outrushed the Saints 186-75. Know that the Bengals have a continuing history of creating momentum, for they are 15-2 SU ATS following exactly one victory, both SU and ATS. In a similar way, this momentum is created when Cinci plays on the road following an underdog victory, in which they allow 10 or fewer points, with a 63% ATS winning mark. Playing to retain the division lead, I like Cincinnati to follow their patterns and record this victory.
NHL
Hot teams
-- Blues won 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Canadiens won eight of their last nine games.
-- Arizona won five of its last seven road games.
-- Blackhawks won five of their last six games.
Cold teams
-- Winnipeg lost four of its last five games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Anaheim lost six of its last eight games.
-- Vancouver lost three of its last five home games.
Series records
-- Blues won seven of last eight games with Winnipeg.
-- Montreal is 8-5 in last 13 games with Rangers, but lost last two visits here.
-- Ducks won five of last six games with Arizona.
-- Chicago/Vancouver split their last dozen meetings.
Totals
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Winnipeg games.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Montreal games.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Anaheim games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Chicago games.
Back-to-back
-- Blues are 1-1 when they played the night before.
-- Canadiens are 4-0 when they played the night before.
-- Coyotes are 2-1 if they played the night before.
-- Chicago is 1-1 if it played the night before.
Hot teams
-- Blues won 11 of their last 14 games.
-- Canadiens won eight of their last nine games.
-- Arizona won five of its last seven road games.
-- Blackhawks won five of their last six games.
Cold teams
-- Winnipeg lost four of its last five games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Anaheim lost six of its last eight games.
-- Vancouver lost three of its last five home games.
Series records
-- Blues won seven of last eight games with Winnipeg.
-- Montreal is 8-5 in last 13 games with Rangers, but lost last two visits here.
-- Ducks won five of last six games with Arizona.
-- Chicago/Vancouver split their last dozen meetings.
Totals
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Winnipeg games.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Montreal games.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Anaheim games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Chicago games.
Back-to-back
-- Blues are 1-1 when they played the night before.
-- Canadiens are 4-0 when they played the night before.
-- Coyotes are 2-1 if they played the night before.
-- Chicago is 1-1 if it played the night before.
