SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ENGLAND –10½ over NY Jets
The media and a lot of other folks are blaming Bill Belichick for the Patriots loss last week when he went for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28 with 2:06 remaining and missed. Believe what you want, but Belichick didn’t make an error or bad judgment. Like 40 or 50 yards was going to make a difference to Peyton Manning with three time outs remaining and the two-minute warning. The real “genius” of it all was that instead of the team taking the heat for the loss, Belichick has all the egg on his face and don’t think for a second that the players don’t know that. The coach had the balls to make one of the best calls of the year but it didn’t work out. Had they punted the result very likely would’ve been exactly the same. Now the players get a chance to respond to the coach that took all the heat off them and put it on himself and no way are the Jets going to get in the way. Mark Sanchez’s Cinderella start is a distant memory, as is the Jets 3-0 start. The films are out on Sanchez and thus, he’s been nothing but another rookie QB since week 3. The Patriots also remember a loss in New York to these Jets in week 2 when Rex Ryan couldn’t keep his cake-hole quiet, both before the game and after. The Patriots have had this one circled since then and given the choice, this is the team they would love to crush more than any other. As for the Jets, well, they have one win in its last six games and it came against the Raiders. Need I say more? The Pats will put a beating on this visitor and they won’t let up for a second. Play: New England –10½ (Risking 2.68 units to win 2.5).
ST. LOUIS +9 over Arizona
The Rams are so close to breaking out. This squad is 1-8 and the season is over but they haven’t lost focus and they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the business. Last week they lost by five at home to the 8-0 Saints. The Rams have also played Minnesota, Indy, Green Bay, Jacksonville and San Fran and many of those losses were misleading especially the one against the Vikes in which they racked up 400 yards of offense. The Rams defense is better than its stats indicate and its offense is one that is becoming more efficient and more dangerous with each passing week. The Cardinals are dangerous too; make no mistake about that. However, they’ve had it much easier over the past few weeks with two games against Seattle and games against Chicago, the reeling Giants and Carolina. The Cardinals have had some easy wins on the road by big scores and that’s certainly not been there M.O. over the years. It’s tough enough to win on the road in this league but to keep winning road games by double-digits is a rarity and these Cards are just not that good to keep that going. Definite upset possibility. Play: St. Louis +9 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
TAMPA BAY +11½ over New Orleans
The Bucs have a new QB and a new attitude to go along with it. One week after defeating the Pack 38-28 for its first win of the year, Josh Freeman and the Bucs nearly made it two straight with a last second loss in Miami last week. The team has a little bounce in its step and they’ll be very jacked up and excited to play the 9-0 Saints. This danger here for the Saints is that it’s their second straight on the road and they’ll host the Patriots on Monday Night Football next week. The Saints have been able to mask a lot of its shortcomings because they’re winning but turning the ball over as much as they do is going to catch up to them at some point. This is a juggernaut offense that could go down as one of the best in history but they’ve turned the ball over 13 times over the past four weeks and that shows a lack of focus. With the Patriots on deck in prime time, losing focus here is a huge concern. The Saints have always had difficulties at Raymond James Stadium and although things change over time, one would have to believe the Bucs will be more up for the task at hand. The better team doesn’t always win in this league. Wagering on the NFL is all about finding the right spots to go against a team and this would appear to be a very vulnerable spot for the guest. Oh, one side note to this game is the Bucs FG kicker, Connor Barth, connected on three 50-plus yard field goals in Miami last weekend. When you’re taking back 11½ points the kicker could be a huge factor in getting the cover. Anyway, I never play a team that I don’t think has a chance to win outright and it would not surprise me to see the Saints overlook this host in anticipation of next week’s showdown. Play: Tampa Bay +11½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
NEW ENGLAND –10½ over NY Jets
The media and a lot of other folks are blaming Bill Belichick for the Patriots loss last week when he went for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28 with 2:06 remaining and missed. Believe what you want, but Belichick didn’t make an error or bad judgment. Like 40 or 50 yards was going to make a difference to Peyton Manning with three time outs remaining and the two-minute warning. The real “genius” of it all was that instead of the team taking the heat for the loss, Belichick has all the egg on his face and don’t think for a second that the players don’t know that. The coach had the balls to make one of the best calls of the year but it didn’t work out. Had they punted the result very likely would’ve been exactly the same. Now the players get a chance to respond to the coach that took all the heat off them and put it on himself and no way are the Jets going to get in the way. Mark Sanchez’s Cinderella start is a distant memory, as is the Jets 3-0 start. The films are out on Sanchez and thus, he’s been nothing but another rookie QB since week 3. The Patriots also remember a loss in New York to these Jets in week 2 when Rex Ryan couldn’t keep his cake-hole quiet, both before the game and after. The Patriots have had this one circled since then and given the choice, this is the team they would love to crush more than any other. As for the Jets, well, they have one win in its last six games and it came against the Raiders. Need I say more? The Pats will put a beating on this visitor and they won’t let up for a second. Play: New England –10½ (Risking 2.68 units to win 2.5).
ST. LOUIS +9 over Arizona
The Rams are so close to breaking out. This squad is 1-8 and the season is over but they haven’t lost focus and they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the business. Last week they lost by five at home to the 8-0 Saints. The Rams have also played Minnesota, Indy, Green Bay, Jacksonville and San Fran and many of those losses were misleading especially the one against the Vikes in which they racked up 400 yards of offense. The Rams defense is better than its stats indicate and its offense is one that is becoming more efficient and more dangerous with each passing week. The Cardinals are dangerous too; make no mistake about that. However, they’ve had it much easier over the past few weeks with two games against Seattle and games against Chicago, the reeling Giants and Carolina. The Cardinals have had some easy wins on the road by big scores and that’s certainly not been there M.O. over the years. It’s tough enough to win on the road in this league but to keep winning road games by double-digits is a rarity and these Cards are just not that good to keep that going. Definite upset possibility. Play: St. Louis +9 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
TAMPA BAY +11½ over New Orleans
The Bucs have a new QB and a new attitude to go along with it. One week after defeating the Pack 38-28 for its first win of the year, Josh Freeman and the Bucs nearly made it two straight with a last second loss in Miami last week. The team has a little bounce in its step and they’ll be very jacked up and excited to play the 9-0 Saints. This danger here for the Saints is that it’s their second straight on the road and they’ll host the Patriots on Monday Night Football next week. The Saints have been able to mask a lot of its shortcomings because they’re winning but turning the ball over as much as they do is going to catch up to them at some point. This is a juggernaut offense that could go down as one of the best in history but they’ve turned the ball over 13 times over the past four weeks and that shows a lack of focus. With the Patriots on deck in prime time, losing focus here is a huge concern. The Saints have always had difficulties at Raymond James Stadium and although things change over time, one would have to believe the Bucs will be more up for the task at hand. The better team doesn’t always win in this league. Wagering on the NFL is all about finding the right spots to go against a team and this would appear to be a very vulnerable spot for the guest. Oh, one side note to this game is the Bucs FG kicker, Connor Barth, connected on three 50-plus yard field goals in Miami last weekend. When you’re taking back 11½ points the kicker could be a huge factor in getting the cover. Anyway, I never play a team that I don’t think has a chance to win outright and it would not surprise me to see the Saints overlook this host in anticipation of next week’s showdown. Play: Tampa Bay +11½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
