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New York Jets (-3) at Cleveland Browns – Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
After winning back-to-back games against New Orleans and New England, is it fair to assume Cleveland (3-5, 4-4 ATS) is a playoff contender? It’s a little early for that, but the Browns are definitely good enough to play spoiler. Cleveland is relying on a smashing running game (Peyton Hillis killed the Pats for 184 yards and two touchdowns), a tough defense, and surprisingly competent quarterback play. Rookie Colt McCoy didn’t shred New England, but he also didn’t make any bad plays (no sacks or turnovers last week).
The Jets (6-2, 5-3 ATS) probably wish they could say the same for Mark Sanchez, who has five interceptions and five sacks in his last three starts. The youngster had zero picks and seven sacks in is first five starts of the year. In fairness, Sanchez led New York to 13 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Lions last week, giving the Jets a 23-20 win. They’ve failed to cover in two straight, however.
McCoy has looked rather poised during his NFL debut but, after seeing Cleveland beat two AFC powerhouses, the Jets won’t take him lightly; they’ll throw every exotic blitz they have against the youngster, force a few turnovers, and sneak away with a win and cover.
NFL spread pick: Jets win on the scoreboard and the back pocket.
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Steelers vs. Patriots
Contrasting the yards per rush figures on offense, the facts give the edge to New England by .1.
Insofar as passing yards per completion on offense, the computations favor the Steelers by 1.5.
So many professional bettors make the most of yards per point. Offensively the more productive numbers are owned by the Patriots by 2.0.
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Defensively the more tightfisted unit against the run according to yards per rush is Pittsburgh by 1.4.
Yards per reception digits favor Pittsburgh by .9.
Calculations on the yards per point math gives the upper hand to Pittsburgh by 3.0.
Now to net turnover margin, the better squad has been the Steelers by three.
Giants vs. Cowboys
The Giants have the more ample numbers in terms of yards per rush on offense by a margin of by 1.1.
The Giants produce more advantageous computations in terms of passing yards per completion by .7.
The yards per point measurement is one of the most effective against Vegas scores and odds. The more suitable numbers are the property of the Giants by 3.0.
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Now to the defensive side of the ball utilizing the same tallies.
The NY Giants reign supreme in stopping the run allowing .9 less.
New York has the better decimals on defense in the passing yards per completion realm by 1.1.
A major facet of Performance Gap Analysis is yards per point. The more rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball in that grouping is the Giants by .8. The Giants are six better in turnovers.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
In passing yards per completion, the foremost figures are in the column of the Cardinals by just .1.
As far as yards per point is concerned, the more efficient offense is Arizona by 3.1.
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Now for the same numbers on the defensive side.
The tougher team against the run based on yards per rush allowed is Seattle by .4.
Arizona Cardinals are permitting fewer passing yards per completion by 1.7.
Seattle forces more yards per point on defense by 2.9. Seattle is seven better in turnovers.
49ers vs. Rams
In comparing yards per rush on offense, the healthier records go to the 49ers by .3.
Insofar as passing yards per completion on the offensive side of the ball, the advantage is for San Francisco by 1.7.
According to yards per point, the not wasteful offense is the St. Louis Rams by 1.1.
Defensively the more miserly team based on yards per rush is the San Francisco Niners by .7.
The more exceptional defense based on the stipulation of passing yards per completion is the Rams by .6.
The yards per point statistic used by the best sports handicappers says the better defense is St. Louis by 2.9.
Matt Rivers for Sunday is on the Miami Dolphins a one-point underdog to Tennessee.
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Matt Rivers has Miami. It appears that Vince Young is not going to go but even if he does I’ll back the home Dolphins at this bargain basement price.
Tennessee is a very good football team led by an electric superstar running back in Chris Johnson. Now Randy Moss is in the mix, which could open the field up for his buddy CJ but I’m not so sure this will just all of a sudden happen in game one.
Miami is a quality team. They have had some rough beats at home for sure but it is still an advantage for them to play in South Beach even if the record doesn’t reflect such. Chad Pennington and his wealth of experience is going to get the start over Chad Henne and I’m fine with that. I do like Henne and think the former University of Michigan star has a bright future in the NFL but he has been struggling and maybe right now Pennington is a better fit. The arm strength obviously isn’t very good but Tony Sporano’s offense with its tricky Wildcat is tough to defend and talented pieces are there with Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess.
These teams somewhat mirror each other with their running and defense approach but being at home and needing a win with the best of them makes me side with the home Dolphins in a game that they probably should be at the very least a field goal favorite.
Matt Rivers pick: Miami