THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8
NFL
Kansas City (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at Jacksonville (3-4 SU and ATS)
The Jaguars will try to make their way back to .500 when they take on the struggling Chiefs at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
Jacksonville tumbled to previously winless Tennessee 30-13 last Sunday as a three-point road underdog, failing to cover for the third straight week (1-2 SU). The Jags field the NFL’s 11th-most productive offense (351.7 ypg) but are scoring just 19 ppg (22nd), while their defense is allowing 370.7 ypg (24th) and 25.3 ppg (tie 25th).
Kansas City, coming off its bye, got drilled at home by San Diego 37-7 two Sundays ago as a 5½-point ‘dog to halt a modest two-game ATS winning streak. The Chiefs haven’t scored more than 20 points in a game since their season-opening 38-24 loss at Baltimore, standing 27th in the league at 15 ppg, and they’re gaining just 251.6 ypg (30th), ahead of only the Browns and Raiders.
Jacksonville is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, most recently winning 17-7 while laying one point on the road in October 2007. The Jags are 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Jaguars are on a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 4-10 overall, 3-7 against the AFC, 2-6 after both a SU loss and an ATS setback, 2-9 at home, 1-10 as a home chalk and 0-6 as a non-division home chalk. Likewise, the Chiefs – who are 1-10 SU (4-7 ATS) in their last 11 games -- are on ATS slides of 2-7 overall, 2-6 after a SU loss, 1-5 after a non-cover, 2-6 as a ‘dog and 0-5 against the AFC.
The over for Jacksonville is on runs of 4-0 at home, 5-0-1 with the Jags a home favorite and 6-2-2 in November, but the under is 7-3-1 in the Jaguars’ last 11 against AFC foes and is 5-2 in Kansas City’s last seven road games. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Baltimore (4-3, 5-2 ATS) at Cincinnati (5-2, 4-3 ATS)
The surprising Bengals aim to keep their spot atop the AFC North when they take on the division rival Ravens at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati, which had its bye last week, rebounded from a home loss to Houston by pounding Chicago 45-10 two weeks ago as a one-point home pup. Paced by Cedric Benson, who had a whopping 187 yards and a TD on 37 carries against the Bears, the Bengals have the ninth-best rushing attack, at 127.7 ypg. Cincy is allowing 341.3 ypg (21st) but only giving up 18.3 ppg (sixth).
Baltimore hammered previously unbeaten Denver 30-7 Sunday as a 4½-point home chalk to halt a three-game losing skid (1-2 ATS). The Ravens have scored 30 points or more in five of their seven games this year and are currently fourth in scoring (28.4 ppg), with an offense churning out 378.7 ypg (seventh). Baltimore’s defense is also in the top half of the league, allowing 313.7 ypg (13th) and 19.6 ppg (11th).
Cincinnati stunned Baltimore four weeks ago 17-14 as a nine-point road underdog to end the Ravens’ two-game SU and ATS run in this rivalry. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests between these two, and the favorite is on a 14-6 ATS roll in the last 20 contests.
The Bengals are on ATS skids of 2-8 following the bye, 5-12 against the AFC and 5-12 after a pointspread win, but they also carry positive ATS trends of 7-3 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 6-0 as an underdog, 5-1 as a home pup and 16-7-1 in November. The Ravens are on ATS rolls of 20-7 overall, 10-2 laying points, 13-4 after a SU win, 9-3 on the highway and 7-3 in division play, but they’ve gone just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a road chalk.
Cincinnati is on “over” runs of 6-2 after a bye, 5-2 inside the division and 20-6-1 as a pup of three points or less, but the under for the Bengals is on streaks of 10-4-1 at home, 7-2 after a SU win and 6-2 against the AFC. The over for Baltimore is on stretches of 4-0 on the road, 6-1-1 in November and 11-5-1 in the AFC North, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last seven clashes in Cincinnati.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (7-0, 5-2 ATS)
The torrid Colts look to keep their perfect season intact when they meet the Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis struggled last week against San Francisco before pulling out an 18-14 home victory, failing to cash as an overwhelming 13-point chalk. The non-cover halted a five-game ATS tear during which Indy outscored opponents by an average of 33-13. QB Peyton Manning is leading the league’s No. 1 passing attack, at 316.3 ypg, and the Colts are fourth in total offense (403.6 ypg) and tied for sixth in scoring offense (28.1 ppg). They also have the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing a meager 13 ppg.
Houston chalked up its third straight win (2-0-1 ATS) last week by ripping Buffalo 31-10 as a 3½-point road favorite to improve to 5-3 for the first time in franchise history. Since losing their season opener 24-7 at home to the Jets, the Texans have scored 21 points or more in every game and are averaging 24.8 ppg (12th). QB Matt Schaub (16 TDs, 7 INTs) leads the NFL with 2,342 passing yards, helping Houston amass 282 ypg through the air (third).
Indianapolis has won four in a row (2-2 ATS) in this rivalry, though it failed to cover in a 33-27 home victory giving nine points last November. The Colts are 9-1 SU in the last 10 clashes, but the two teams have split the cash in those meetings.
The Colts shoulder negative ATS streaks of 4-9 at home, 3-8 as a home chalk and 2-5 against winning teams, but along with their current 5-1 ATS run, they are on pointspread rolls of 4-1 giving points, 4-1 after a non-cover and 6-2-1 against the AFC. The Texans are on spread-covering runs of 6-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 4-1 in the division and 6-2 on the road, but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six after a SU win and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a spread-cover.
In this AFC South rivalry, the total has gone high in eight straight overall and six in a row at Indy, and the over is on additional runs of 20-6 for Houston in division play and 21-7 for the Texans against winning teams. That said, the under for Houston is on upticks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on the road and 8-2 against the NFC, and the under for Indy is on surges of 4-1 against AFC foes and 11-4 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Washington (2-5 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (4-3, 5-2 ATS)
The Falcons try to shake the first two-game losing streak of the Mike Smith era, returning home to the Georgia Dome to take on the disheveled Redskins.
Atlanta, on the road for a second straight week, lost a Monday night shootout with New Orleans 35-27, but got a late field goal to cover the number as a hefty 11-point pup. The Falcons’ big issue has been a defense that gives up 378.1 total ypg, rating 29th in the league ahead of cellar dwellers Kansas City, Tennessee and Cleveland. Offensively, Atlanta averages 339.9 ypg (17th) and 24.4 ppg (13th).
Washington got a much-needed bye last week following a 27-17 Monday night loss to Philadelphia two weeks ago as a nine-point home ‘dog. The Redskins have yet to score more than 17 points all year, as they are averaging a dismal 13.7 ppg (28th). The only saving grace for Jim Zorn’s troops is a defense that is yielding just 17.6 ppg (fifth) and 283.4 ypg (fourth).
These two teams have met just twice this decade in the regular season, with each going 1-1 SU and ATS and the road team taking the cash in both games. Most recently, Atlanta won 24-14 as a one-point pup in December 2006.
The Falcons are on ATS tears of 9-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 in November, 4-1 against losing teams, 9-3 at the Georgia Dome and 8-3 giving points. On the flip side, the Redskins are on pointspread purges of 4-12-2 overall, 2-6-2 after a non-cover, 1-8-2 after a SU loss, 1-5 against winning teams and 2-10-1 outside the NFC East.
The over is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last seven conference games and 11-3 with it coming off a SU loss, but the under for the Falcons is on runs of 18-8 in November and 11-5-1 from the favorite’s role. For Washington, the under is on tears of 19-7-1 overall, 5-0 in November, 5-1 against winning teams, 9-2 after a SU loss, 9-2-1 after an ATS setback and 6-2-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Green Bay (4-3 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (0-7, 1-6 ATS)
The Buccaneers, still seeking their first victory under new coach Raheem Morris, return from their bye week to take on the Packers at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay got pounded by New England 35-7 two weekends ago in London, falling well short as a healthy 15.5-point “home” underdog. The Buccaneers have scored 14 points or less in four of their last five games, and they’re averaging just 13.7 ppg (tie 28th) and 272.3 ypg (28th) for the season, while giving up 29 ppg (30th) and 376.4 ypg (28th).
Green Bay tumbled to Minnesota 38-26 Sunday night as a 3½-point home favorite, ending a 3-1 SU and ATS surge that included wins and covers the previous two weeks. The Packers are averaging 372.7 ypg (ninth) and 26.7 ppg (eighth), and they have a sterling plus-12 turnover margin, tied for first in the NFL with the Eagles.
Tampa Bay topped Green Bay 30-21 as a one-point home chalk in September 2008, ending a two-game ATS uptick (1-1 SU) by the Pack in this rivalry. The Bucs are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall and 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests in Tampa.
The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five starts after the bye week and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as a home pup of 3½ to 10 points, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 1-8 overall, 0-7 at home, 1-6 getting points and 1-5 against winning teams. The Packers are on ATS rolls of 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss, 16-6-1 on the highway, 9-3 as a road chalk and 17-8 against losing teams.
In this NFC rivalry, the under is on runs of 6-2 overall and 4-1 in Tampa. The total has also stayed low in eight of the Bucs’ last 10 games versus winning teams. However, the over is on stretches of 9-4 with Tampa a home ‘dog, 22-9-1 overall for Green Bay, 11-4-1 on the road for the Packers, 17-5 with the Pack a road favorite and 44-21-2 with Green Bay facing a losing team.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Arizona (4-3 SU and ATS) at Chicago (4-3 SU and ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals look to put a stunning home loss behind them when they travel to Soldier Field for a battle with the Bears.
Arizona, coming off a 24-17 road win as a nine-point pup at the Giants, got manhandled by Carolina last Sunday in a 34-21 loss as a 10-point home chalk. QB Kurt Warner entered the game with nine TDs and six INTs on the year, but he exited with five more INTs and a lost fumble, more than offsetting his two TD passes. The Cards are now 26th in the league in turnover margin at minus-6, and they sit 18th in total ypg (328.1) and 17th in ppg (22.4), much of that due to fielding the league’s worst rushing attack (64.9 ypg).
Chicago bounced back from its 45-10 blowout loss at Cincinnati by whipping Cleveland 30-6 Sunday giving 11½ points at home, ending a two-game SU and ATS hiccup that followed a three-game SU and ATS win streak. Despite the addition of QB Jay Cutler, the Bears are netting just 320.3 ypg (20th) and 22.7 ppg (16th), with the defense a bit better in allowing 310 ypg (11th) and 21.4 ppg (18th).
These rivals have met just three times in the regular season this decade, with Arizona going 2-1 ATS (1-2 SU). Most recently, Chicago won 24-23 in October 2006, but Arizona cashed as a heavy 12½-point home pup.
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five November starts, but the ATS streaks trend upward from there, including 9-3 overall, 6-0 as a ‘dog, 4-0 on the road, 5-1 against winning teams, 6-2 against the NFC and 16-7 coming off a SU loss. The Bears are on ATS upswings of 4-1-1 at home and 5-2-1 giving points, but they are also on pointspread declines of 1-5-1 against winning teams, 7-18-2 after a SU win and 2-5-1 after a spread-cover.
The over for Arizona is on a plethora of runs, including 39-18 on the highway, 40-15 with the Cardinals a road ‘dog, 10-2 with the Cards a pup of three points or less and 18-6 against winning teams, though the under has hit in four of the last five for Arizona. The under is also 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven at Soldier Field, but with the Bears favored, the over is on runs of 23-11-1 overall, 18-6 at home and 11-1 with Chicago laying three points or less.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (3-4 SU and ATS) at New England (5-2, 4-3 ATS)
The well-rested Patriots look to extend a two-game winning streak as they entertain the Dolphins in an AFC East contest at Gillette Stadium.
New England went to London as the “road team” two weeks ago and ripped winless Tampa Bay 35-7 as an overwhelming 15½-point favorite for its second straight blowout win and cover, following a 59-0 home whitewashing of then-winless Tennessee. The Pats are racking up 406 ypg (third) and 28.3 ppg (fifth), with QB Tom Brady leading the league’s second-best passing attack (291 ypg). New England is giving up just 14 ppg (third) and 285.7 ypg (sixth).
Miami bounced back from a home loss to New Orleans to beat the Jets 30-25 as a 3½-point road ‘dog Sunday, moving to 3-1 SU and ATS over the past four games. The Dolphins have scored at least 30 ppg in that four-game stretch, and RB Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat offense have Miami averaging 153.4 ypg rushing this year (third). The Dolphins are also scoring 25.1 ppg (11th), but they are giving up 25.3 ppg (25th).
These two teams split last year’s meetings, with the road team winning and cashing in each case. Miami sprang a 38-13 September upset as a 12½-point pup, and New England returned the favor two months later with a 48-28 rout giving one point. The road team is on a 4-0 ATS run, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 laying more than 10 points and 0-8 at home as a chalk of the same price, but they are on spread-covering sprees of 4-1 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 4-1 at Gillette, 5-2 after the bye and 25-12-1 inside the AFC East. The Dolphins are in 2-5 ATS ruts as both a ‘dog and after a spread-cover, but they are on pointspread surges of 7-3 on the road, 6-2 as a road pup and 7-0 getting more than 10 points on the highway.
The over for New England is on runs of 6-1 at home, 5-2 in November and 7-3 against the AFC, though the under is 7-3-1 in the Pats’ last 11 following a bye. The over for Miami is on streaks of 4-0 overall and 4-0 against winning teams, but the under is on an 8-2 run in November games and a 6-2 stretch on the road for the Dolphins. Finally, the total has gone high in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Carolina (3-4, 2-5 ATS) at New Orleans (7-0, 6-1 ATS)
The undefeated Saints look to keep rolling when they square off with the division rival Panthers at the Superdome.
New Orleans won a Monday night shootout with Atlanta 35-27, but fell short as an 11-point home favorite when the Falcons hit a field goal in the final minute following a Saints turnover. In fact, New Orleans has eight turnovers in its last two games (four INTs, four lost fumbles), but the Saints have overcome that with the league’s No. 1 offense in total yards (428.7 ypg) and the No. 1 scoring attack (39 ppg), nearly nine points better than the second-place Vikings (30.5 ppg). Plus, the Saints have five INT returns for TDs this year and are still plus-7 in turnover margin (fourth).
Carolina stunned defending NFC champion Arizona 34-21 Sunday as a 10-point road ‘dog, winning for the third time in the last four games (2-2 ATS). Jake Delhomme finally played a turnover-free game, after committing 15 turnovers (13 INTs, 2 lost fumbles, 5 TD passes) in the first six games, and the Panthers forced six Cardinals turnovers. However, because of Delhomme’s generosity, Carolina is still 29th in the league in turnover margin, at minus-8.
Carolina won and covered as a favorite in both meetings in this rivalry last year, including a 33-31 road victory as a one-point chalk to cap the regular season en route to a playoff berth. The road team is a stunning 15-2 ATS in the last 17 clashes between these two, and the Panthers are on ATS runs against the Saints of 4-1 overall and 8-0 in the Big Easy. Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Despite failing to cover for the first time this season on Monday, the Saints remain on a boatload of positive pointspread streaks, including 15-5-1 overall, 5-0 against losing teams, 16-5 giving points, 6-1 as a home chalk, 6-0 after a non-cover and 5-1 after a SU win. On the flip side, the Panthers are on spread-covering slides of 2-6 overall, 1-4 getting points, 3-9 as a road pup, 2-6 after an ATS win and 3-7 in November.
The over dominates the landscape for both these teams. For New Orleans, the over is on tears of 20-7-1 overall, 8-3 against losing teams, 8-0 versus teams with a losing road record, 4-1 in division play and 12-3-1 with the Saints a home favorite. Carolina is on “over” runs of 5-0 in the NFC South, 7-1 on the highway, 6-1 getting points and 11-3 against NFC foes. All that said, the under has hit in seven of the last nine meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Detroit (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at Seattle (2-5 SU and ATS)
The Lions, with just one victory in their last 24 games, head to the Pacific Northwest hoping to improve against the struggling Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Last week, Detroit went off as a favorite for the first time this year, but stumbled to a 17-10 home loss to winless St. Louis giving 3½ points. The Lions are averaging just 292.6 ypg and 16.1 ppg, rating 25th in the league in both categories, while their defense is giving up 369.6 ypg (23rd) and 29.3 ppg, a scoring total that is 31st in the league, ahead of only Tennessee (30.1 ppg).
Seattle was on the wrong end of a second straight blowout Sunday, losing at Dallas 38-17 as a 10-point ‘dog following a 27-3 home loss to Arizona as a three-point chalk. The Seahawks have been held to 19 points or less five times this year, losing all five games SU and ATS, and home-field advantage hasn’t really helped, as Seattle is 2-2 SU and ATS at Qwest.
Seattle has won both meetings (1-1 ATS) this decade with Detroit, including a less-than-scintillating 9-6 road win as a six-point favorite to open the 2006 season.
The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a non-cover, but they remain on ATS dives of 2-5 overall, 1-5 against NFC opponents and 3-7 in non-division roadies. On top of that, Detroit is just 1-23 SU and 9-15 ATS dating to the second-to-last week of 2007. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have failed to cover in five of their last six games, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 11-5 laying points, 9-3 as a home chalk, 9-4 against losing teams and 10-5 as a non-division home favorite.
Detroit is on “over” streaks of 19-9-1 overall, 6-1 in November, 7-2 against losing teams and 21-7 on the road. Seattle is on “under” runs of 6-1 in November, 4-1 at home and 7-3-1 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Tennessee (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at San Francisco (3-4, 5-1-1 ATS)
The Titans, who finally cracked the win column last week, will try to make it two in a row with a trip to Candlestick Park for a non-conference contest with the 49ers.
Tennessee dropped Jacksonville 30-13 as a three-point home favorite Sunday, ending an eight-game slide (1-7 ATs) dating to the last week of the 2008 regular-season for a team that went an NFL-best 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS last year before bowing out in the divisional playoff round. RB Chris Johnson went haywire with 24 carries for 228 yards and two TDs (89 and 52 yards) as the Titans rolled up 305 rushing yards.
Tennessee now sports the NFL’s second-best running attack (162.3 ypg), but it is getting outscored by two TDs per game in allowing a league-worst 30.1 ppg.
San Francisco hung with unbeaten Indianapolis last week, coming up short in an 18-14 road loss but easily cashing as a 13-point underdog. After a 3-1 SU start (4-0 ATS), the Niners have lost three in a row (1-1-1 ATS), averaging just 15 ppg during the skid, and they sit 27th in total offense this year at just 275.3 ypg.
Tennessee beat San Francisco 33-22 giving nine points at home in December 2005, the only meeting this decade between the two franchises.
The Titans are on pointspread skids of 1-5 overall and 1-5 in roadies, but they still sport positive ATS streaks of 15-7 as a pup, 8-1 getting 3½ to 10 points, 11-4 after a SU win, 7-3 against losing teams and 4-1 in November. The 49ers are on ATS upswings of 5-1-2 overall, 4-1-1 at home and 5-1 in November, but they are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 home starts laying 3½ to 10 points.
The under is on runs of 18-7-1 for Tennessee following a SU win, 5-1 for San Francisco after a SU loss and 9-4 for the Niners in November. However, the over is on surges of 4-1 for the Titans against losing teams and 11-4 with the 49ers a home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Diego (4-3, 2-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
The Giants hope to recover from a stunning three-game skid when they welcome the Chargers to the Meadowlands for a non-conference clash.
New York got blasted at Philadelphia on Sunday, trailing 30-7 by halftime in a 40-17 loss as a one-point favorite, losing and failing to cash for the third straight week after a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) start. During the skid, the Giants have allowed a whopping 37.3 ppg, while scoring just 19.3 ppg, and QB Eli Manning has seven turnovers (6 INTs, 1 fumble) against just three TD passes. New York still ranks fifth in total offense this year (386.9 ypg) and ninth in scoring (26.5 ppg), and its running attack is churning out 141.8 ypg (seventh).
San Diego has followed a 1-3 SU and ATS slide with a pair of SU victories (1-1 ATS), topping Oakland 24-16 last week but falling well short as a huge 16-point home chalk. Behind QB Philip Rivers, the Chargers have the NFL’s fourth-best passing attack (276.3 ypg), but they’ve been hindered all year by the league’s second-worst rushing game (74.7 ypg) and a defense susceptible to the run, giving up 132.1 ypg on the ground (27th).
In the lone meeting this decade between these teams, San Diego rolled 45-23 laying seven points at home in September 2005.
Despite their recent woes, the Giants remain on ATS tears of 33-16-2 overall, 5-1 in November, 9-4-1 as a chalk and 6-2 against the AFC, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against winning teams. The Chargers are on an 18-6-3 ATS tear as an underdog, but they are in pointspread ruts of 2-6 overall, 0-5 after a SU win, 3-7 on the highway and 3-10 in non-division road games.
The over is 3-1-1 in New York’s last five outings and 5-1-1 in the Giants last seven November tilts, and the over for San Diego is on several streaks, including 8-3-2 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU win and 19-6-3 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and OVER
Dallas (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (5-2 SU and ATS)
The Eagles and Cowboys both look to keep their current surges going when they meet at Lincoln Financial Field, with first place in the NFC East on the line.
Philadelphia ripped the Giants 40-17 Sunday as a one-point home underdog for its second straight win and cover. A huge key for the Eagles this season has been their penchant for forcing turnovers, as they are tied with Green Bay for the league lead with a plus-12 margin. That’s helped them rack up 29 ppg (third) despite being a middling 15th in total offense (344.4 ypg). Philly is also allowing 296.9 ypg (10th) and 19 ppg (eighth).
Dallas drilled Seattle 38-17 as a 10-point home favorite Sunday for its third consecutive victory (2-1 ATS). The Cowboys field the NFL’s second-best offense at 411.1 ypg, including a rushing attack that nets 147.6 ypg (sixth) and a passing game averaging 263.6 ypg (seventh). Dallas is just a pinch behind Philly in scoring at 28.1 ppg (tie for sixth), and the Pokes are giving up 19.4 ppg (10th).
Philadelphia is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry (3-2 SU), with the two teams splitting last year’s contests both SU and ATS. In the regular-season finale, the Eagles hammered the Cowboys 44-7 as a 2½-point home chalk to earn a playoff spot and deny Dallas a postseason berth. The underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The Eagles are on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in division play, 6-1 at home, 5-0 as a home chalk and 6-2 against winning teams. The Cowboys have covered in four straight November starts and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NFC contests, but they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-5 as a pup, 2-9 inside the division, 1-4 on the road and 1-4 against winning teams.
Philadelphia is on “over” tears of 7-1 overall, 7-0-1 at home, 6-0 in NFC action, 5-1 giving points and 26-11-1 against winning teams. Likewise, the over for Dallas is on binges of 7-2 overall, 19-9-2 on the highway, 5-1 against NFC foes and 8-3 in November. Finally, the over is on a 3-0-1 uptick in the last four series meetings in Philly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8
NFL
Kansas City (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at Jacksonville (3-4 SU and ATS)
The Jaguars will try to make their way back to .500 when they take on the struggling Chiefs at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
Jacksonville tumbled to previously winless Tennessee 30-13 last Sunday as a three-point road underdog, failing to cover for the third straight week (1-2 SU). The Jags field the NFL’s 11th-most productive offense (351.7 ypg) but are scoring just 19 ppg (22nd), while their defense is allowing 370.7 ypg (24th) and 25.3 ppg (tie 25th).
Kansas City, coming off its bye, got drilled at home by San Diego 37-7 two Sundays ago as a 5½-point ‘dog to halt a modest two-game ATS winning streak. The Chiefs haven’t scored more than 20 points in a game since their season-opening 38-24 loss at Baltimore, standing 27th in the league at 15 ppg, and they’re gaining just 251.6 ypg (30th), ahead of only the Browns and Raiders.
Jacksonville is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, most recently winning 17-7 while laying one point on the road in October 2007. The Jags are 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Jaguars are on a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 4-10 overall, 3-7 against the AFC, 2-6 after both a SU loss and an ATS setback, 2-9 at home, 1-10 as a home chalk and 0-6 as a non-division home chalk. Likewise, the Chiefs – who are 1-10 SU (4-7 ATS) in their last 11 games -- are on ATS slides of 2-7 overall, 2-6 after a SU loss, 1-5 after a non-cover, 2-6 as a ‘dog and 0-5 against the AFC.
The over for Jacksonville is on runs of 4-0 at home, 5-0-1 with the Jags a home favorite and 6-2-2 in November, but the under is 7-3-1 in the Jaguars’ last 11 against AFC foes and is 5-2 in Kansas City’s last seven road games. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Baltimore (4-3, 5-2 ATS) at Cincinnati (5-2, 4-3 ATS)
The surprising Bengals aim to keep their spot atop the AFC North when they take on the division rival Ravens at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati, which had its bye last week, rebounded from a home loss to Houston by pounding Chicago 45-10 two weeks ago as a one-point home pup. Paced by Cedric Benson, who had a whopping 187 yards and a TD on 37 carries against the Bears, the Bengals have the ninth-best rushing attack, at 127.7 ypg. Cincy is allowing 341.3 ypg (21st) but only giving up 18.3 ppg (sixth).
Baltimore hammered previously unbeaten Denver 30-7 Sunday as a 4½-point home chalk to halt a three-game losing skid (1-2 ATS). The Ravens have scored 30 points or more in five of their seven games this year and are currently fourth in scoring (28.4 ppg), with an offense churning out 378.7 ypg (seventh). Baltimore’s defense is also in the top half of the league, allowing 313.7 ypg (13th) and 19.6 ppg (11th).
Cincinnati stunned Baltimore four weeks ago 17-14 as a nine-point road underdog to end the Ravens’ two-game SU and ATS run in this rivalry. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests between these two, and the favorite is on a 14-6 ATS roll in the last 20 contests.
The Bengals are on ATS skids of 2-8 following the bye, 5-12 against the AFC and 5-12 after a pointspread win, but they also carry positive ATS trends of 7-3 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 6-0 as an underdog, 5-1 as a home pup and 16-7-1 in November. The Ravens are on ATS rolls of 20-7 overall, 10-2 laying points, 13-4 after a SU win, 9-3 on the highway and 7-3 in division play, but they’ve gone just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a road chalk.
Cincinnati is on “over” runs of 6-2 after a bye, 5-2 inside the division and 20-6-1 as a pup of three points or less, but the under for the Bengals is on streaks of 10-4-1 at home, 7-2 after a SU win and 6-2 against the AFC. The over for Baltimore is on stretches of 4-0 on the road, 6-1-1 in November and 11-5-1 in the AFC North, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last seven clashes in Cincinnati.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston (5-3, 4-3-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (7-0, 5-2 ATS)
The torrid Colts look to keep their perfect season intact when they meet the Texans at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis struggled last week against San Francisco before pulling out an 18-14 home victory, failing to cash as an overwhelming 13-point chalk. The non-cover halted a five-game ATS tear during which Indy outscored opponents by an average of 33-13. QB Peyton Manning is leading the league’s No. 1 passing attack, at 316.3 ypg, and the Colts are fourth in total offense (403.6 ypg) and tied for sixth in scoring offense (28.1 ppg). They also have the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing a meager 13 ppg.
Houston chalked up its third straight win (2-0-1 ATS) last week by ripping Buffalo 31-10 as a 3½-point road favorite to improve to 5-3 for the first time in franchise history. Since losing their season opener 24-7 at home to the Jets, the Texans have scored 21 points or more in every game and are averaging 24.8 ppg (12th). QB Matt Schaub (16 TDs, 7 INTs) leads the NFL with 2,342 passing yards, helping Houston amass 282 ypg through the air (third).
Indianapolis has won four in a row (2-2 ATS) in this rivalry, though it failed to cover in a 33-27 home victory giving nine points last November. The Colts are 9-1 SU in the last 10 clashes, but the two teams have split the cash in those meetings.
The Colts shoulder negative ATS streaks of 4-9 at home, 3-8 as a home chalk and 2-5 against winning teams, but along with their current 5-1 ATS run, they are on pointspread rolls of 4-1 giving points, 4-1 after a non-cover and 6-2-1 against the AFC. The Texans are on spread-covering runs of 6-1 as an underdog, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 4-1 in the division and 6-2 on the road, but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six after a SU win and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a spread-cover.
In this AFC South rivalry, the total has gone high in eight straight overall and six in a row at Indy, and the over is on additional runs of 20-6 for Houston in division play and 21-7 for the Texans against winning teams. That said, the under for Houston is on upticks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on the road and 8-2 against the NFC, and the under for Indy is on surges of 4-1 against AFC foes and 11-4 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Washington (2-5 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (4-3, 5-2 ATS)
The Falcons try to shake the first two-game losing streak of the Mike Smith era, returning home to the Georgia Dome to take on the disheveled Redskins.
Atlanta, on the road for a second straight week, lost a Monday night shootout with New Orleans 35-27, but got a late field goal to cover the number as a hefty 11-point pup. The Falcons’ big issue has been a defense that gives up 378.1 total ypg, rating 29th in the league ahead of cellar dwellers Kansas City, Tennessee and Cleveland. Offensively, Atlanta averages 339.9 ypg (17th) and 24.4 ppg (13th).
Washington got a much-needed bye last week following a 27-17 Monday night loss to Philadelphia two weeks ago as a nine-point home ‘dog. The Redskins have yet to score more than 17 points all year, as they are averaging a dismal 13.7 ppg (28th). The only saving grace for Jim Zorn’s troops is a defense that is yielding just 17.6 ppg (fifth) and 283.4 ypg (fourth).
These two teams have met just twice this decade in the regular season, with each going 1-1 SU and ATS and the road team taking the cash in both games. Most recently, Atlanta won 24-14 as a one-point pup in December 2006.
The Falcons are on ATS tears of 9-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 in November, 4-1 against losing teams, 9-3 at the Georgia Dome and 8-3 giving points. On the flip side, the Redskins are on pointspread purges of 4-12-2 overall, 2-6-2 after a non-cover, 1-8-2 after a SU loss, 1-5 against winning teams and 2-10-1 outside the NFC East.
The over is 6-1 in Atlanta’s last seven conference games and 11-3 with it coming off a SU loss, but the under for the Falcons is on runs of 18-8 in November and 11-5-1 from the favorite’s role. For Washington, the under is on tears of 19-7-1 overall, 5-0 in November, 5-1 against winning teams, 9-2 after a SU loss, 9-2-1 after an ATS setback and 6-2-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Green Bay (4-3 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (0-7, 1-6 ATS)
The Buccaneers, still seeking their first victory under new coach Raheem Morris, return from their bye week to take on the Packers at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay got pounded by New England 35-7 two weekends ago in London, falling well short as a healthy 15.5-point “home” underdog. The Buccaneers have scored 14 points or less in four of their last five games, and they’re averaging just 13.7 ppg (tie 28th) and 272.3 ypg (28th) for the season, while giving up 29 ppg (30th) and 376.4 ypg (28th).
Green Bay tumbled to Minnesota 38-26 Sunday night as a 3½-point home favorite, ending a 3-1 SU and ATS surge that included wins and covers the previous two weeks. The Packers are averaging 372.7 ypg (ninth) and 26.7 ppg (eighth), and they have a sterling plus-12 turnover margin, tied for first in the NFL with the Eagles.
Tampa Bay topped Green Bay 30-21 as a one-point home chalk in September 2008, ending a two-game ATS uptick (1-1 SU) by the Pack in this rivalry. The Bucs are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall and 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests in Tampa.
The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last five starts after the bye week and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as a home pup of 3½ to 10 points, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 1-8 overall, 0-7 at home, 1-6 getting points and 1-5 against winning teams. The Packers are on ATS rolls of 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU loss, 16-6-1 on the highway, 9-3 as a road chalk and 17-8 against losing teams.
In this NFC rivalry, the under is on runs of 6-2 overall and 4-1 in Tampa. The total has also stayed low in eight of the Bucs’ last 10 games versus winning teams. However, the over is on stretches of 9-4 with Tampa a home ‘dog, 22-9-1 overall for Green Bay, 11-4-1 on the road for the Packers, 17-5 with the Pack a road favorite and 44-21-2 with Green Bay facing a losing team.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Arizona (4-3 SU and ATS) at Chicago (4-3 SU and ATS)
The defending NFC champion Cardinals look to put a stunning home loss behind them when they travel to Soldier Field for a battle with the Bears.
Arizona, coming off a 24-17 road win as a nine-point pup at the Giants, got manhandled by Carolina last Sunday in a 34-21 loss as a 10-point home chalk. QB Kurt Warner entered the game with nine TDs and six INTs on the year, but he exited with five more INTs and a lost fumble, more than offsetting his two TD passes. The Cards are now 26th in the league in turnover margin at minus-6, and they sit 18th in total ypg (328.1) and 17th in ppg (22.4), much of that due to fielding the league’s worst rushing attack (64.9 ypg).
Chicago bounced back from its 45-10 blowout loss at Cincinnati by whipping Cleveland 30-6 Sunday giving 11½ points at home, ending a two-game SU and ATS hiccup that followed a three-game SU and ATS win streak. Despite the addition of QB Jay Cutler, the Bears are netting just 320.3 ypg (20th) and 22.7 ppg (16th), with the defense a bit better in allowing 310 ypg (11th) and 21.4 ppg (18th).
These rivals have met just three times in the regular season this decade, with Arizona going 2-1 ATS (1-2 SU). Most recently, Chicago won 24-23 in October 2006, but Arizona cashed as a heavy 12½-point home pup.
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five November starts, but the ATS streaks trend upward from there, including 9-3 overall, 6-0 as a ‘dog, 4-0 on the road, 5-1 against winning teams, 6-2 against the NFC and 16-7 coming off a SU loss. The Bears are on ATS upswings of 4-1-1 at home and 5-2-1 giving points, but they are also on pointspread declines of 1-5-1 against winning teams, 7-18-2 after a SU win and 2-5-1 after a spread-cover.
The over for Arizona is on a plethora of runs, including 39-18 on the highway, 40-15 with the Cardinals a road ‘dog, 10-2 with the Cards a pup of three points or less and 18-6 against winning teams, though the under has hit in four of the last five for Arizona. The under is also 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven at Soldier Field, but with the Bears favored, the over is on runs of 23-11-1 overall, 18-6 at home and 11-1 with Chicago laying three points or less.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Miami (3-4 SU and ATS) at New England (5-2, 4-3 ATS)
The well-rested Patriots look to extend a two-game winning streak as they entertain the Dolphins in an AFC East contest at Gillette Stadium.
New England went to London as the “road team” two weeks ago and ripped winless Tampa Bay 35-7 as an overwhelming 15½-point favorite for its second straight blowout win and cover, following a 59-0 home whitewashing of then-winless Tennessee. The Pats are racking up 406 ypg (third) and 28.3 ppg (fifth), with QB Tom Brady leading the league’s second-best passing attack (291 ypg). New England is giving up just 14 ppg (third) and 285.7 ypg (sixth).
Miami bounced back from a home loss to New Orleans to beat the Jets 30-25 as a 3½-point road ‘dog Sunday, moving to 3-1 SU and ATS over the past four games. The Dolphins have scored at least 30 ppg in that four-game stretch, and RB Ronnie Brown and the Wildcat offense have Miami averaging 153.4 ypg rushing this year (third). The Dolphins are also scoring 25.1 ppg (11th), but they are giving up 25.3 ppg (25th).
These two teams split last year’s meetings, with the road team winning and cashing in each case. Miami sprang a 38-13 September upset as a 12½-point pup, and New England returned the favor two months later with a 48-28 rout giving one point. The road team is on a 4-0 ATS run, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 laying more than 10 points and 0-8 at home as a chalk of the same price, but they are on spread-covering sprees of 4-1 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 4-1 at Gillette, 5-2 after the bye and 25-12-1 inside the AFC East. The Dolphins are in 2-5 ATS ruts as both a ‘dog and after a spread-cover, but they are on pointspread surges of 7-3 on the road, 6-2 as a road pup and 7-0 getting more than 10 points on the highway.
The over for New England is on runs of 6-1 at home, 5-2 in November and 7-3 against the AFC, though the under is 7-3-1 in the Pats’ last 11 following a bye. The over for Miami is on streaks of 4-0 overall and 4-0 against winning teams, but the under is on an 8-2 run in November games and a 6-2 stretch on the road for the Dolphins. Finally, the total has gone high in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Carolina (3-4, 2-5 ATS) at New Orleans (7-0, 6-1 ATS)
The undefeated Saints look to keep rolling when they square off with the division rival Panthers at the Superdome.
New Orleans won a Monday night shootout with Atlanta 35-27, but fell short as an 11-point home favorite when the Falcons hit a field goal in the final minute following a Saints turnover. In fact, New Orleans has eight turnovers in its last two games (four INTs, four lost fumbles), but the Saints have overcome that with the league’s No. 1 offense in total yards (428.7 ypg) and the No. 1 scoring attack (39 ppg), nearly nine points better than the second-place Vikings (30.5 ppg). Plus, the Saints have five INT returns for TDs this year and are still plus-7 in turnover margin (fourth).
Carolina stunned defending NFC champion Arizona 34-21 Sunday as a 10-point road ‘dog, winning for the third time in the last four games (2-2 ATS). Jake Delhomme finally played a turnover-free game, after committing 15 turnovers (13 INTs, 2 lost fumbles, 5 TD passes) in the first six games, and the Panthers forced six Cardinals turnovers. However, because of Delhomme’s generosity, Carolina is still 29th in the league in turnover margin, at minus-8.
Carolina won and covered as a favorite in both meetings in this rivalry last year, including a 33-31 road victory as a one-point chalk to cap the regular season en route to a playoff berth. The road team is a stunning 15-2 ATS in the last 17 clashes between these two, and the Panthers are on ATS runs against the Saints of 4-1 overall and 8-0 in the Big Easy. Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Despite failing to cover for the first time this season on Monday, the Saints remain on a boatload of positive pointspread streaks, including 15-5-1 overall, 5-0 against losing teams, 16-5 giving points, 6-1 as a home chalk, 6-0 after a non-cover and 5-1 after a SU win. On the flip side, the Panthers are on spread-covering slides of 2-6 overall, 1-4 getting points, 3-9 as a road pup, 2-6 after an ATS win and 3-7 in November.
The over dominates the landscape for both these teams. For New Orleans, the over is on tears of 20-7-1 overall, 8-3 against losing teams, 8-0 versus teams with a losing road record, 4-1 in division play and 12-3-1 with the Saints a home favorite. Carolina is on “over” runs of 5-0 in the NFC South, 7-1 on the highway, 6-1 getting points and 11-3 against NFC foes. All that said, the under has hit in seven of the last nine meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Detroit (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at Seattle (2-5 SU and ATS)
The Lions, with just one victory in their last 24 games, head to the Pacific Northwest hoping to improve against the struggling Seahawks at Qwest Field.
Last week, Detroit went off as a favorite for the first time this year, but stumbled to a 17-10 home loss to winless St. Louis giving 3½ points. The Lions are averaging just 292.6 ypg and 16.1 ppg, rating 25th in the league in both categories, while their defense is giving up 369.6 ypg (23rd) and 29.3 ppg, a scoring total that is 31st in the league, ahead of only Tennessee (30.1 ppg).
Seattle was on the wrong end of a second straight blowout Sunday, losing at Dallas 38-17 as a 10-point ‘dog following a 27-3 home loss to Arizona as a three-point chalk. The Seahawks have been held to 19 points or less five times this year, losing all five games SU and ATS, and home-field advantage hasn’t really helped, as Seattle is 2-2 SU and ATS at Qwest.
Seattle has won both meetings (1-1 ATS) this decade with Detroit, including a less-than-scintillating 9-6 road win as a six-point favorite to open the 2006 season.
The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a non-cover, but they remain on ATS dives of 2-5 overall, 1-5 against NFC opponents and 3-7 in non-division roadies. On top of that, Detroit is just 1-23 SU and 9-15 ATS dating to the second-to-last week of 2007. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have failed to cover in five of their last six games, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 11-5 laying points, 9-3 as a home chalk, 9-4 against losing teams and 10-5 as a non-division home favorite.
Detroit is on “over” streaks of 19-9-1 overall, 6-1 in November, 7-2 against losing teams and 21-7 on the road. Seattle is on “under” runs of 6-1 in November, 4-1 at home and 7-3-1 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Tennessee (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at San Francisco (3-4, 5-1-1 ATS)
The Titans, who finally cracked the win column last week, will try to make it two in a row with a trip to Candlestick Park for a non-conference contest with the 49ers.
Tennessee dropped Jacksonville 30-13 as a three-point home favorite Sunday, ending an eight-game slide (1-7 ATs) dating to the last week of the 2008 regular-season for a team that went an NFL-best 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS last year before bowing out in the divisional playoff round. RB Chris Johnson went haywire with 24 carries for 228 yards and two TDs (89 and 52 yards) as the Titans rolled up 305 rushing yards.
Tennessee now sports the NFL’s second-best running attack (162.3 ypg), but it is getting outscored by two TDs per game in allowing a league-worst 30.1 ppg.
San Francisco hung with unbeaten Indianapolis last week, coming up short in an 18-14 road loss but easily cashing as a 13-point underdog. After a 3-1 SU start (4-0 ATS), the Niners have lost three in a row (1-1-1 ATS), averaging just 15 ppg during the skid, and they sit 27th in total offense this year at just 275.3 ypg.
Tennessee beat San Francisco 33-22 giving nine points at home in December 2005, the only meeting this decade between the two franchises.
The Titans are on pointspread skids of 1-5 overall and 1-5 in roadies, but they still sport positive ATS streaks of 15-7 as a pup, 8-1 getting 3½ to 10 points, 11-4 after a SU win, 7-3 against losing teams and 4-1 in November. The 49ers are on ATS upswings of 5-1-2 overall, 4-1-1 at home and 5-1 in November, but they are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 home starts laying 3½ to 10 points.
The under is on runs of 18-7-1 for Tennessee following a SU win, 5-1 for San Francisco after a SU loss and 9-4 for the Niners in November. However, the over is on surges of 4-1 for the Titans against losing teams and 11-4 with the 49ers a home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Diego (4-3, 2-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
The Giants hope to recover from a stunning three-game skid when they welcome the Chargers to the Meadowlands for a non-conference clash.
New York got blasted at Philadelphia on Sunday, trailing 30-7 by halftime in a 40-17 loss as a one-point favorite, losing and failing to cash for the third straight week after a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) start. During the skid, the Giants have allowed a whopping 37.3 ppg, while scoring just 19.3 ppg, and QB Eli Manning has seven turnovers (6 INTs, 1 fumble) against just three TD passes. New York still ranks fifth in total offense this year (386.9 ypg) and ninth in scoring (26.5 ppg), and its running attack is churning out 141.8 ypg (seventh).
San Diego has followed a 1-3 SU and ATS slide with a pair of SU victories (1-1 ATS), topping Oakland 24-16 last week but falling well short as a huge 16-point home chalk. Behind QB Philip Rivers, the Chargers have the NFL’s fourth-best passing attack (276.3 ypg), but they’ve been hindered all year by the league’s second-worst rushing game (74.7 ypg) and a defense susceptible to the run, giving up 132.1 ypg on the ground (27th).
In the lone meeting this decade between these teams, San Diego rolled 45-23 laying seven points at home in September 2005.
Despite their recent woes, the Giants remain on ATS tears of 33-16-2 overall, 5-1 in November, 9-4-1 as a chalk and 6-2 against the AFC, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against winning teams. The Chargers are on an 18-6-3 ATS tear as an underdog, but they are in pointspread ruts of 2-6 overall, 0-5 after a SU win, 3-7 on the highway and 3-10 in non-division road games.
The over is 3-1-1 in New York’s last five outings and 5-1-1 in the Giants last seven November tilts, and the over for San Diego is on several streaks, including 8-3-2 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU win and 19-6-3 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and OVER
Dallas (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (5-2 SU and ATS)
The Eagles and Cowboys both look to keep their current surges going when they meet at Lincoln Financial Field, with first place in the NFC East on the line.
Philadelphia ripped the Giants 40-17 Sunday as a one-point home underdog for its second straight win and cover. A huge key for the Eagles this season has been their penchant for forcing turnovers, as they are tied with Green Bay for the league lead with a plus-12 margin. That’s helped them rack up 29 ppg (third) despite being a middling 15th in total offense (344.4 ypg). Philly is also allowing 296.9 ypg (10th) and 19 ppg (eighth).
Dallas drilled Seattle 38-17 as a 10-point home favorite Sunday for its third consecutive victory (2-1 ATS). The Cowboys field the NFL’s second-best offense at 411.1 ypg, including a rushing attack that nets 147.6 ypg (sixth) and a passing game averaging 263.6 ypg (seventh). Dallas is just a pinch behind Philly in scoring at 28.1 ppg (tie for sixth), and the Pokes are giving up 19.4 ppg (10th).
Philadelphia is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry (3-2 SU), with the two teams splitting last year’s contests both SU and ATS. In the regular-season finale, the Eagles hammered the Cowboys 44-7 as a 2½-point home chalk to earn a playoff spot and deny Dallas a postseason berth. The underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The Eagles are on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in division play, 6-1 at home, 5-0 as a home chalk and 6-2 against winning teams. The Cowboys have covered in four straight November starts and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NFC contests, but they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-5 as a pup, 2-9 inside the division, 1-4 on the road and 1-4 against winning teams.
Philadelphia is on “over” tears of 7-1 overall, 7-0-1 at home, 6-0 in NFC action, 5-1 giving points and 26-11-1 against winning teams. Likewise, the over for Dallas is on binges of 7-2 overall, 19-9-2 on the highway, 5-1 against NFC foes and 8-3 in November. Finally, the over is on a 3-0-1 uptick in the last four series meetings in Philly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
sportsbetsnow
NFL
1 unit Carolina +13
1 unit Tennessee +4
Line Instructions:
Square books will give you better lines than this, try to
get +14 or better and +4.5, I have to use these lines because
that is all my tracking service offers but I am definitely
buying the hook when I personally bet these. GL.
NFL
1 unit Carolina +13
1 unit Tennessee +4
Line Instructions:
Square books will give you better lines than this, try to
get +14 or better and +4.5, I have to use these lines because
that is all my tracking service offers but I am definitely
buying the hook when I personally bet these. GL.
VSI
2 Unit Play. #406 Take Cincinnati +3 over Baltimore (Sunday 11/8 1:05 PM)
I was really surprised by this spread. Cincinnati went into Baltimore and beat the Ravens last month and proved that they are equal to their division rivals. So why are they getting points here? Baltimore is coming off an emotional win at home last week against Denver. But now they have to go on the road to face a group that has had two weeks to prepare. All of the value here is on the home dog.
7 Unit Play. #417 Take Over 52 Carolina at New Orleans (Sunday 11/8 4:05 PM)
This is my NFL Total of the Year and I love this situation! No one can stop the New Orleans offense and they are averaging 40 points per game. They easily covered a 56-point total on Monday night and that was with only scoring seven points in the second half. Carolina will not be able to stop them. And I don't think that the Saints will be able to slow down the Carolina attack. The Panthers managed 35 points last week against a strong Arizona front four. I think that they will they will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Saints. New Orleans has gone 'over' in three straight games - almost by themselves! There will be lots of points and lots of big plays in this one and I think that will send us 'over'.
3 Unit Play. #425 Take Under 48 Dallas at Philadelphia (Sunday 11/8 8:20 PM NBC)
I think that the public is eating up the 'over' on this game. But when it comes down to it this is a smashmouth game between NFC East rivals. After these two teams combined for over 70 points last week I think that this total is an overcorrection and that it's off by at least five points. It will be close, but it will stay 'under'.
4 Unit Play. #429 Take Over 39.5 Pittsburgh at Denver (Monday 11/9 8:35 PM ESPN)
This total seems pretty low considering all of the firepower that is on the field for these two teams. Denver just gave up 30 points to a Baltimore team that is not as strong offensively as the Steelers. And with two weeks to prepare I think Pittsburgh will be sharp and ready to go. Denver was held to just six points last week. But they have a lot of weapons that I don't think will be held down. MNF games have gone 8-1 against the total this year and I look for that trend to continue.
2 Unit Play. #406 Take Cincinnati +3 over Baltimore (Sunday 11/8 1:05 PM)
I was really surprised by this spread. Cincinnati went into Baltimore and beat the Ravens last month and proved that they are equal to their division rivals. So why are they getting points here? Baltimore is coming off an emotional win at home last week against Denver. But now they have to go on the road to face a group that has had two weeks to prepare. All of the value here is on the home dog.
7 Unit Play. #417 Take Over 52 Carolina at New Orleans (Sunday 11/8 4:05 PM)
This is my NFL Total of the Year and I love this situation! No one can stop the New Orleans offense and they are averaging 40 points per game. They easily covered a 56-point total on Monday night and that was with only scoring seven points in the second half. Carolina will not be able to stop them. And I don't think that the Saints will be able to slow down the Carolina attack. The Panthers managed 35 points last week against a strong Arizona front four. I think that they will they will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Saints. New Orleans has gone 'over' in three straight games - almost by themselves! There will be lots of points and lots of big plays in this one and I think that will send us 'over'.
3 Unit Play. #425 Take Under 48 Dallas at Philadelphia (Sunday 11/8 8:20 PM NBC)
I think that the public is eating up the 'over' on this game. But when it comes down to it this is a smashmouth game between NFC East rivals. After these two teams combined for over 70 points last week I think that this total is an overcorrection and that it's off by at least five points. It will be close, but it will stay 'under'.
4 Unit Play. #429 Take Over 39.5 Pittsburgh at Denver (Monday 11/9 8:35 PM ESPN)
This total seems pretty low considering all of the firepower that is on the field for these two teams. Denver just gave up 30 points to a Baltimore team that is not as strong offensively as the Steelers. And with two weeks to prepare I think Pittsburgh will be sharp and ready to go. Denver was held to just six points last week. But they have a lot of weapons that I don't think will be held down. MNF games have gone 8-1 against the total this year and I look for that trend to continue.
Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK 50 DIME
PHILADELPHIA
Note From Steve Budin:
Philadelphia has been a steady -3 point favorite all week as this play is posted around 11 PM Eastern Saturday evening.
If the line remains -3 or moves to -3 1/2 or even -4, buy down the 1/2 point in each situation.
Thus, if you reduce the price to -2 1/2, and the Eagles prevail by just a field goal, you walk away with a win.
If the price is moved from -3 1/2 to -3, and the Eagles win by three, you get the push.
And if the price is moved from -4 to -3 1/2, a four-point win by the Eagles results in a win.
I do not anticipate this number moving past 4, but on the off chance it does move to -4 1/2, you would again buy down to -4 to assure yourself of a push should Philadelphia win by only four.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. In this case, however, it's a wise investment strategy, using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
SUNDAY'S PICK 50 DIME
PHILADELPHIA
Note From Steve Budin:
Philadelphia has been a steady -3 point favorite all week as this play is posted around 11 PM Eastern Saturday evening.
If the line remains -3 or moves to -3 1/2 or even -4, buy down the 1/2 point in each situation.
Thus, if you reduce the price to -2 1/2, and the Eagles prevail by just a field goal, you walk away with a win.
If the price is moved from -3 1/2 to -3, and the Eagles win by three, you get the push.
And if the price is moved from -4 to -3 1/2, a four-point win by the Eagles results in a win.
I do not anticipate this number moving past 4, but on the off chance it does move to -4 1/2, you would again buy down to -4 to assure yourself of a push should Philadelphia win by only four.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. In this case, however, it's a wise investment strategy, using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
Jeff Benton
Sunday's 2009 NFL Game of the Year winner ... 50 DIME: PATRIOTS (minus the points vs. Dolphins)
IMPORTANT NOTE: I want you to make a smart investment and buy down the half-point with New England if this number is sitting a 10 1/2. Do that and lay minus-10 with the Patriots, as 10 is a very key number in the NFL. ... Also, DO NOT settle for New England -11 unless you absolutely have to, as there are plenty of places that have the Patriots at -10 1/2.
Patriots
The last time Miami went to New England, it introduced “The Wildcat” to the NFL. Caught completely off guard, the Patriots were crushed 38-13 as a 12½-point home favorite, with the Dolphins putting up 461 yards (216 rushing) and holding the Matt Cassel-led Patriots offense to just 216 total yards (and that was Cassel’s third career start).
Two months later, after studying hours of “Wildcat” tape, Bill Belichick took his team to Miami and got some big-time revenge in a 48-28 win as a one-point road favorite, this time holding the Dolphins to just 62 rushing yards, while the offense rolled up 530 yards, with Cassel throwing for 408 yards. It was classic Belichick: You may fool and embarrass him once, but you will not do so twice.
So how does this all apply to today’s game? Well, for starters, the Patriots are coming off a bye, meaning they’ve had two weeks to prepare for any new “Wildcat” wrinkles, not to mention two weeks to study new Dolphins QB Chad Henne, who will be making his fifth career start today. As anyone who has followed football religiously for the last decade knows, Bill Belichick eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, lunch AND dinner. There’s little no doubt that the New England defense, which surrendered a grand total of seven points and 144 passing yards in two wins prior to the bye, will make life miserable for Henne (who struggled through a 12-for-21, 112-yard passing day and was sacked six times at the Jets last week). There’s also little doubt that New England will be more prepared for the “Wildcat” than any team Miami has faced to this point.
At the same time, you think Tom Brady is itching to get back on the field after a week off? The Golden Boy finally looked to have turned the corner from his knee injury the last two weeks, lighting up the Titans and Bucs for a combined 688 passing yards, nine TDs and two INTs, completing 78.8 percent of his passes (52-for-66) … and he didn’t even finish either game! Today, Brady is going up against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL (the Dolphins give up 240.6 passing ypg and 7.8 yards per pass attempt). The last time Brady faced Miami was during the Patriots’ 2008 perfect season, and all he did was complete 39 of 58 passes (67 percent) for 569 yards and nine touchdowns, leading his team to wins of 28-7 at home and 49-28 on the road. And get this: Today, Brady – along with partners in crime Randy Moss and Wes Welker – gets to go up against TWO rookie cornerbacks!
While New England is coming off a bye here, Miami is in a really bad situational spot, as it is making its second straight trip to the Northeast. Last week, the Dolphins got one of the luckiest wins you’ll ever see in the NFL. Despite managing just 104 total yards (52 net rushing, 52 net passing) and giving up 378 total yards (rookie QB Mark Sanchez had 265 passing yards and two TDs), Miami pulled out a 30-25 victory. The reason was Ted Ginn, who returned two kickoffs for touchdowns against the sloppy Jets’ special teams. That’s NOT happening again this week against a Bill Belichick-coached squad.
The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in the last six years when coming off a bye, and this particular week off came in the absolute perfect spot, as, again, it has given Belichick time to game plan for the Wildcat and pick apart Henne’s tendencies. It’s also given the coach extra time to bring back down to earth any of his players who might have been feeling a little too good about themselves after routing the Titans and Bucs by a combined score of 94-7.
Yes, Miami has won three of its last four after an 0-3 start, but we’ve already established that last week’s win over the Jets was a major fluke. To a lesser degree, so was the Dolphins’ win over New York three weeks earlier, when Miami scored a TD with seconds to play to pull out a 31-27 victory. The Dolphins’ only other win was at home against crappy Bills. Put it another way: Miami’s three wins and covers this year came against the Jets twice (and rookie QB Sanchez) and Bills (Trent Edwards). Its four losses and non-covers came against the Falcons (Matt Ryan), Colts (Peyton Manning), Chargers (Philip Rivers) and Saints (Drew Brees), and three of those were double-digit defeats!
Put it all together – Henne vs. a Belichick stop unit that’s ranks in the top 5 in passing defense; a smoking-hot Brady vs. a poor Dolphins pass D; the Patriots coming off a bye vs. the Dolphins making their second straight long road trip to play a divisional game; the Patriots playing at home, where they’re 4-0 SU with three straight spread-covers vs. the Dolphins playing on the road (1-3 SU and ATS) – and this has three-touchdown blowout written all over it!
My friends, your 2009 NFL Game of the Year is the New England Patriots, and I’ll call for a final score of 38-13.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
Sunday's 2009 NFL Game of the Year winner ... 50 DIME: PATRIOTS (minus the points vs. Dolphins)
IMPORTANT NOTE: I want you to make a smart investment and buy down the half-point with New England if this number is sitting a 10 1/2. Do that and lay minus-10 with the Patriots, as 10 is a very key number in the NFL. ... Also, DO NOT settle for New England -11 unless you absolutely have to, as there are plenty of places that have the Patriots at -10 1/2.
Patriots
The last time Miami went to New England, it introduced “The Wildcat” to the NFL. Caught completely off guard, the Patriots were crushed 38-13 as a 12½-point home favorite, with the Dolphins putting up 461 yards (216 rushing) and holding the Matt Cassel-led Patriots offense to just 216 total yards (and that was Cassel’s third career start).
Two months later, after studying hours of “Wildcat” tape, Bill Belichick took his team to Miami and got some big-time revenge in a 48-28 win as a one-point road favorite, this time holding the Dolphins to just 62 rushing yards, while the offense rolled up 530 yards, with Cassel throwing for 408 yards. It was classic Belichick: You may fool and embarrass him once, but you will not do so twice.
So how does this all apply to today’s game? Well, for starters, the Patriots are coming off a bye, meaning they’ve had two weeks to prepare for any new “Wildcat” wrinkles, not to mention two weeks to study new Dolphins QB Chad Henne, who will be making his fifth career start today. As anyone who has followed football religiously for the last decade knows, Bill Belichick eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast, lunch AND dinner. There’s little no doubt that the New England defense, which surrendered a grand total of seven points and 144 passing yards in two wins prior to the bye, will make life miserable for Henne (who struggled through a 12-for-21, 112-yard passing day and was sacked six times at the Jets last week). There’s also little doubt that New England will be more prepared for the “Wildcat” than any team Miami has faced to this point.
At the same time, you think Tom Brady is itching to get back on the field after a week off? The Golden Boy finally looked to have turned the corner from his knee injury the last two weeks, lighting up the Titans and Bucs for a combined 688 passing yards, nine TDs and two INTs, completing 78.8 percent of his passes (52-for-66) … and he didn’t even finish either game! Today, Brady is going up against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL (the Dolphins give up 240.6 passing ypg and 7.8 yards per pass attempt). The last time Brady faced Miami was during the Patriots’ 2008 perfect season, and all he did was complete 39 of 58 passes (67 percent) for 569 yards and nine touchdowns, leading his team to wins of 28-7 at home and 49-28 on the road. And get this: Today, Brady – along with partners in crime Randy Moss and Wes Welker – gets to go up against TWO rookie cornerbacks!
While New England is coming off a bye here, Miami is in a really bad situational spot, as it is making its second straight trip to the Northeast. Last week, the Dolphins got one of the luckiest wins you’ll ever see in the NFL. Despite managing just 104 total yards (52 net rushing, 52 net passing) and giving up 378 total yards (rookie QB Mark Sanchez had 265 passing yards and two TDs), Miami pulled out a 30-25 victory. The reason was Ted Ginn, who returned two kickoffs for touchdowns against the sloppy Jets’ special teams. That’s NOT happening again this week against a Bill Belichick-coached squad.
The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in the last six years when coming off a bye, and this particular week off came in the absolute perfect spot, as, again, it has given Belichick time to game plan for the Wildcat and pick apart Henne’s tendencies. It’s also given the coach extra time to bring back down to earth any of his players who might have been feeling a little too good about themselves after routing the Titans and Bucs by a combined score of 94-7.
Yes, Miami has won three of its last four after an 0-3 start, but we’ve already established that last week’s win over the Jets was a major fluke. To a lesser degree, so was the Dolphins’ win over New York three weeks earlier, when Miami scored a TD with seconds to play to pull out a 31-27 victory. The Dolphins’ only other win was at home against crappy Bills. Put it another way: Miami’s three wins and covers this year came against the Jets twice (and rookie QB Sanchez) and Bills (Trent Edwards). Its four losses and non-covers came against the Falcons (Matt Ryan), Colts (Peyton Manning), Chargers (Philip Rivers) and Saints (Drew Brees), and three of those were double-digit defeats!
Put it all together – Henne vs. a Belichick stop unit that’s ranks in the top 5 in passing defense; a smoking-hot Brady vs. a poor Dolphins pass D; the Patriots coming off a bye vs. the Dolphins making their second straight long road trip to play a divisional game; the Patriots playing at home, where they’re 4-0 SU with three straight spread-covers vs. the Dolphins playing on the road (1-3 SU and ATS) – and this has three-touchdown blowout written all over it!
My friends, your 2009 NFL Game of the Year is the New England Patriots, and I’ll call for a final score of 38-13.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
Stephen Nover
Sunday's Plays 50 Dime PATRIOTS - This year is different in the NFL. You can't be afraid to lay double-digits.
I see the Patriots and Tom Brady tearing apart an overrated Dolphins team that was extremely fortunate to beat the Jets last week (outgained by 274 yards from scrimmage) and whose secondary is extremely vulnerable with two rookie cornerbacks.
You can be darn sure Bill Belichick isn't going to let kick returner Ted Guinn beat him like blustery Rex Ryan did. Without long returns from Guinn, the Dolphins don't have the offense to keep up with Brady, who finally appears to be 100 percent.
The Patriots are close to their record-setting form of two years ago scoring 94 points in their last two games. The Dolphins don't have the experience or depth in the secondary to keep up with New England's three and four wide receiver sets.
The Dolphins aren't going to trick the Patriots with their wildcat formation like they did last year in Foxboro. The Patriots were humiliated in that contest, their worst loss in eight years at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots were idle last week. You know Belichick, a legitimate defensive genius, will have his team fired up and well prepared for any trickery the Dolphins' limited offense can come up with. This is just Chad Henne's fifth start.
The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread following a bye.
20 Dime PACKERS - The situation isn't the best for Green Bay, off a tough home loss to division rival Minnesota. But it won't matter in this matchup.
Tampa Bay is on its way to matching Detroit's winless season of last year. Yes, the Buccaneers are that bad. And they're going to be even worse with rookie quarterback Josh Freeman becoming their third starting quarterback of the season.
Freeman has a big arm, but he's not nearly ready to start in the NFL. Green Bay's 3-4 defense is going to have a monster game against him. Freeman is going to be confused by Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers' schemes.
Freeman's passer rating in preseason was 41. The only time he has played during the regular season was nine snaps during two series in the Buccaneers' blowout loss in London to the Patriots.
Aaron Rodgers is having a tremendous statistical season. The Packers' problem has been pass protection. Look for that to be greatly improved as veteran left tackle Chad Clifton, Green Bay's best pass blocker, and right tackle Mark Tauscher are now ready to move into the starting lineup. Clifton had been hurt and Tauscher was recently resigned.
Look for Rodgers' confidence to go way up knowing his blindside will be protected and Jared Allen isn't around to hound him. The Packers are 16-6-1 against the spread on the road, 9-3 against the number as a road favorite.
Tampa Bay has failed to cover in its last seven home games.
10 Dime REDSKINS - I'll take this many points with a Redskins squad that ranks fourth in total defense giving up 283 yards per game and fifth in defensive scoring allowing 17.6 points per contest.
It's not like Atlanta is playing well. The Falcons have lost their last two games, surrendering a combined 72 points in road losses to Dallas and New Orleans.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan isn't experiencing a sophomore jinx after an outstanding rookie season, but he is on a cold spell throwing seven interceptions in his last three games while only completing 51.8 percent of his passes during this span.
Washington was idle last week. The Falcons have been on the road the past two weeks. They go on the road in their next two games, including facing division rival Carolina next week.
So the scheduling dynamics are in the Redskins' favor. The key is can the Redskins' offense, which has been terrible, put up enough points to get the cover?
New play-caller Sherm Lewis has had more time to digest the situation. The Redskins have had an extra week to get their much-maligned offensive line in order. Expect fresh legs from Clinton Portis.
Atlanta doesn't present a tough defense for the Redskins to overcome. The Redskins can move the ball better than perceived. The Falcons have given up 28 pass plays of 20 or more yards, second-worst in the league.
Jason Campbell should have time to throw. The Falcons have only 14 sacks, which ranks 24th. John Abraham is having a down year rushing the passer. Without Abraham, the Falcons can't generate a pass rush unless they blitz, which will open the short game up.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----GL GUYS
Sunday's Plays 50 Dime PATRIOTS - This year is different in the NFL. You can't be afraid to lay double-digits.
I see the Patriots and Tom Brady tearing apart an overrated Dolphins team that was extremely fortunate to beat the Jets last week (outgained by 274 yards from scrimmage) and whose secondary is extremely vulnerable with two rookie cornerbacks.
You can be darn sure Bill Belichick isn't going to let kick returner Ted Guinn beat him like blustery Rex Ryan did. Without long returns from Guinn, the Dolphins don't have the offense to keep up with Brady, who finally appears to be 100 percent.
The Patriots are close to their record-setting form of two years ago scoring 94 points in their last two games. The Dolphins don't have the experience or depth in the secondary to keep up with New England's three and four wide receiver sets.
The Dolphins aren't going to trick the Patriots with their wildcat formation like they did last year in Foxboro. The Patriots were humiliated in that contest, their worst loss in eight years at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots were idle last week. You know Belichick, a legitimate defensive genius, will have his team fired up and well prepared for any trickery the Dolphins' limited offense can come up with. This is just Chad Henne's fifth start.
The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread following a bye.
20 Dime PACKERS - The situation isn't the best for Green Bay, off a tough home loss to division rival Minnesota. But it won't matter in this matchup.
Tampa Bay is on its way to matching Detroit's winless season of last year. Yes, the Buccaneers are that bad. And they're going to be even worse with rookie quarterback Josh Freeman becoming their third starting quarterback of the season.
Freeman has a big arm, but he's not nearly ready to start in the NFL. Green Bay's 3-4 defense is going to have a monster game against him. Freeman is going to be confused by Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers' schemes.
Freeman's passer rating in preseason was 41. The only time he has played during the regular season was nine snaps during two series in the Buccaneers' blowout loss in London to the Patriots.
Aaron Rodgers is having a tremendous statistical season. The Packers' problem has been pass protection. Look for that to be greatly improved as veteran left tackle Chad Clifton, Green Bay's best pass blocker, and right tackle Mark Tauscher are now ready to move into the starting lineup. Clifton had been hurt and Tauscher was recently resigned.
Look for Rodgers' confidence to go way up knowing his blindside will be protected and Jared Allen isn't around to hound him. The Packers are 16-6-1 against the spread on the road, 9-3 against the number as a road favorite.
Tampa Bay has failed to cover in its last seven home games.
10 Dime REDSKINS - I'll take this many points with a Redskins squad that ranks fourth in total defense giving up 283 yards per game and fifth in defensive scoring allowing 17.6 points per contest.
It's not like Atlanta is playing well. The Falcons have lost their last two games, surrendering a combined 72 points in road losses to Dallas and New Orleans.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan isn't experiencing a sophomore jinx after an outstanding rookie season, but he is on a cold spell throwing seven interceptions in his last three games while only completing 51.8 percent of his passes during this span.
Washington was idle last week. The Falcons have been on the road the past two weeks. They go on the road in their next two games, including facing division rival Carolina next week.
So the scheduling dynamics are in the Redskins' favor. The key is can the Redskins' offense, which has been terrible, put up enough points to get the cover?
New play-caller Sherm Lewis has had more time to digest the situation. The Redskins have had an extra week to get their much-maligned offensive line in order. Expect fresh legs from Clinton Portis.
Atlanta doesn't present a tough defense for the Redskins to overcome. The Redskins can move the ball better than perceived. The Falcons have given up 28 pass plays of 20 or more yards, second-worst in the league.
Jason Campbell should have time to throw. The Falcons have only 14 sacks, which ranks 24th. John Abraham is having a down year rushing the passer. Without Abraham, the Falcons can't generate a pass rush unless they blitz, which will open the short game up.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED-----GL GUYS
Sunday NFL System Club Play GC-
On Sunday the System Club Play is on Sunday the System club play is on the Detroit Lions. Game 419 at 4:05 eastern. The Lions qualify in a solid system today that plays on certain non division road dogs if both teams come into the game off non divisional losses. The Lions lost last week as a home favorite to the Rams,while the Seahawks were pasted by the Cowboys. The Lions are 8-2 ats after scoring 10 or less and will play a competitive game here today. On Sunday I have a TRIPLE system 5 star, a 20-3 System dog of the week play,a 24-4 cutting edge totals system play that dates to the mid 1970/s and an 18-1 non divisional super system side. Another HUGE NFL card is up. On Saturday we nailed both TOP play including the College football GOY. CONGRATS to all those who jumped on and made a killing with Stanford and Ohio.St yesterday as we had a huge overall day. Jump on and finish your week with the cash today. For the System club play take the Lions who should be +10.5 at game time. BOL GC
On Sunday the System Club Play is on Sunday the System club play is on the Detroit Lions. Game 419 at 4:05 eastern. The Lions qualify in a solid system today that plays on certain non division road dogs if both teams come into the game off non divisional losses. The Lions lost last week as a home favorite to the Rams,while the Seahawks were pasted by the Cowboys. The Lions are 8-2 ats after scoring 10 or less and will play a competitive game here today. On Sunday I have a TRIPLE system 5 star, a 20-3 System dog of the week play,a 24-4 cutting edge totals system play that dates to the mid 1970/s and an 18-1 non divisional super system side. Another HUGE NFL card is up. On Saturday we nailed both TOP play including the College football GOY. CONGRATS to all those who jumped on and made a killing with Stanford and Ohio.St yesterday as we had a huge overall day. Jump on and finish your week with the cash today. For the System club play take the Lions who should be +10.5 at game time. BOL GC
ROCK BOX SPORTS
3* CAROLINA PANTHERS +13
It seems inevitable that some of the big dogs are going to start covering as Vegas extends lines further and further upward due to the avalanche of public money coming in on teams like the Colts, Pats, and Saints. We suspect that there will be less and less to be gained by laying the points as the season wears on and plenty of value to be found with certain double-digit dogs in the right situations.
Witness the case the of the 2007 Pats who came out of the gates covering their first eight games against the spread, generating a public frenzy of Pats money as Vegas jacked lines through the roof to protect itself. Result? From week nine onwards the Pats went 2-9 against the spread including playoffs, failing to cover their last six in a row.
This year’s Saints may not be quite in the class of the ’07 Pats in terms of public support, but they’re close. Drew Brees and company opened the season with six straight covers, but the worm may have begun its turn on Monday night as the Falcons back-door covered an inflated eleven point spread. No signs this week that the public is dissuaded, though, as money continues to pour in on New Orleans. We expect that there will be similar value in going against the Saints down the stretch as seen with the ’07 Pats.
Morever, the Panthers have been quietly improving and actually seem to match up well this Sunday. John Fox’s crew is 3-1 since their bye-week and is coming of an impressive dismantling of Arizona last week. The Carolina defense has been improving steadily as the players grow accustomed to the new scheme installed this season. NFC Defensive Player of the Week Julius Peppers is starting look like his old self, with 23 tackles, six sacks, eight quarterback pressures, two forced fumbles and an interception return for a touchdown in the last four games.
On offense, the running game, the bread-and-butter for last season’s playoff squad, looked as strong as ever last week. If the Saints have a weakness this year, it may be defending the run. Few teams have had the opportunity to exploit this weakness, however, because they get behind early. This is when the opportunistic Saints pass defense goes to work. However, the Panthers have the kind of running game that can set the tempo and burn clock while keeping the Saints offense on the sidelines. If the Panthers defense can hold their own- and they are #1 in the NFL against the pass- this game could be a lot closer than one might assume.
Keep in mind that Jake Delhomme, a Louisiana native, is 8-2 lifetime against the Saints and has NEVER lost in the Superdome. In fact, THE PANTHERS HAVEN’T LOST IN THE SUPERDOME SINCE 2001. That’s not to say they’ll win this week, but it does tell us that they won’t be intimidated by the frenzied dome atmosphere.
One of the problems that the Pats faced in 2007 in terms of covering spreads was that opposing teams increasingly viewed their matchups with New England as their own personal Super Bowls, playing with great emotion and giving the Pats their best shot. This dynamic, in combination with inflated point spreads, translates into a lot of covering by the dogs.
This is precisely the situation that the Saints will face this week. Coming off a big Monday-nighter against the Falcons, they will face a Panthers team that will be playing with great emotion against their undefeated division rival. If the Saints cannot match this emotion, they may find themselves in a dogfight.
3* CAROLINA PANTHERS +13
It seems inevitable that some of the big dogs are going to start covering as Vegas extends lines further and further upward due to the avalanche of public money coming in on teams like the Colts, Pats, and Saints. We suspect that there will be less and less to be gained by laying the points as the season wears on and plenty of value to be found with certain double-digit dogs in the right situations.
Witness the case the of the 2007 Pats who came out of the gates covering their first eight games against the spread, generating a public frenzy of Pats money as Vegas jacked lines through the roof to protect itself. Result? From week nine onwards the Pats went 2-9 against the spread including playoffs, failing to cover their last six in a row.
This year’s Saints may not be quite in the class of the ’07 Pats in terms of public support, but they’re close. Drew Brees and company opened the season with six straight covers, but the worm may have begun its turn on Monday night as the Falcons back-door covered an inflated eleven point spread. No signs this week that the public is dissuaded, though, as money continues to pour in on New Orleans. We expect that there will be similar value in going against the Saints down the stretch as seen with the ’07 Pats.
Morever, the Panthers have been quietly improving and actually seem to match up well this Sunday. John Fox’s crew is 3-1 since their bye-week and is coming of an impressive dismantling of Arizona last week. The Carolina defense has been improving steadily as the players grow accustomed to the new scheme installed this season. NFC Defensive Player of the Week Julius Peppers is starting look like his old self, with 23 tackles, six sacks, eight quarterback pressures, two forced fumbles and an interception return for a touchdown in the last four games.
On offense, the running game, the bread-and-butter for last season’s playoff squad, looked as strong as ever last week. If the Saints have a weakness this year, it may be defending the run. Few teams have had the opportunity to exploit this weakness, however, because they get behind early. This is when the opportunistic Saints pass defense goes to work. However, the Panthers have the kind of running game that can set the tempo and burn clock while keeping the Saints offense on the sidelines. If the Panthers defense can hold their own- and they are #1 in the NFL against the pass- this game could be a lot closer than one might assume.
Keep in mind that Jake Delhomme, a Louisiana native, is 8-2 lifetime against the Saints and has NEVER lost in the Superdome. In fact, THE PANTHERS HAVEN’T LOST IN THE SUPERDOME SINCE 2001. That’s not to say they’ll win this week, but it does tell us that they won’t be intimidated by the frenzied dome atmosphere.
One of the problems that the Pats faced in 2007 in terms of covering spreads was that opposing teams increasingly viewed their matchups with New England as their own personal Super Bowls, playing with great emotion and giving the Pats their best shot. This dynamic, in combination with inflated point spreads, translates into a lot of covering by the dogs.
This is precisely the situation that the Saints will face this week. Coming off a big Monday-nighter against the Falcons, they will face a Panthers team that will be playing with great emotion against their undefeated division rival. If the Saints cannot match this emotion, they may find themselves in a dogfight.
B Lang
25 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - Love the Chargers in this spot here.
Who are the Giants to be laying more than a field goal to anybody right now?
Seriously folks, this is a team that over the last 3 weeks has gone from contender to pretender. Simple as that.
It started in New Orleans 3 weeks ago, when the Saints exposed this Giants defense to a degree we haven't seen under Tom Coughlin.
Then 2 weeks ago, Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals went into New York and exposed Giants even more in getting the outright win as a 7 point underdog.
Last week the Eagles showed what happened against New Orleans and Arizona was no accident as they embarrassed New York in a big way.
The Giants for all intents and purposes, are done.
Mark it down now. They are done and the main reason they are done is the fact they can't cover anybody.
The can't get pressure with their front four so they are having to blitz more, and if you know anything about the NFL, then you should know if you blitz in this league, the chances are you are playing man to man behind it and if those guys can't cover, you are in big trouble.
After they play the Chargers today, they play Atlanta, at Denver, Dallas and Philly. Quite frankly, I can see them losing all 4 of those games. They catch a break facing Washington after that but then they finish with Carolna and at Minnesota.
I know this might be hard to accept but 8-8 is probably reality, or even 7-9 isn't out of the question. That is how bad and overrated this team is.
At the NFL level, when you lose your defensive coordinator - as good as Spagnuola is, there is a very good chance your defense is going to struggle which is exactly what we are seeing from New York. They look lost.
Even after their implosion the last 3 weeks, the Giants are still an overvalued team. Highly overvalued, and I will gladly take the Chargers who I feel match up very well offensively against this Giants defense and will be able to have enough success to be in this game the whole way.
I will gladly take the Chargers and the points and it wouldn't suprise me in the least bit to see San Diego win this game outright.
25 dime CHARGERS
10 DIME - CAROLINA PANTHERS - Way to many points here.
I have to admit, I didn't give the Panthers a chance out in Arizona last week but let me tell you something right now, that was the way I remember the Panthers playing.
The way they ran the football and put Jake in very manageable situations, that is how this team used to win football games.
Now they are catching close to 2 touchdowns here against a division foe they are very familiar with and having gotten the money 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Watching the Monday night game and seeing the success the Falcons were having on the ground against this Saints defense, I immediately felt the Panthers would be able to do the same thing today.
Carolina will attack this game exactly the same way they did Arizona last week. Run the football. Run the football some more. Run the football until you can't run the football anymore.
Can the Panthers win this game outright? You better believe they can, and if they win the turnover battle, they just might.
But catching this many points from a Saints team that all of a sudden is overvalued.
Folks, 2 years ago the linemaker in Vegas got burned by the high scoring Patriots as they covered their 10 games to start the year and the public killed the Vegas sportsbooks right along with it.
After they blew out Buffalo on Sunday night 56-10, oddsmakers in Vegas said that's it. We are not letting this team beat us again.
The next 6 weeks of the regular season the Patriots were laying 24 at home to Philly, 20 1/2 on the road at Baltimore, 24 at home to the Jets, 24 at home to the Dolphins and 13 on the road at New York.
That gives you and idea of how the linemakers overvalued the Patriots because they weren't going to let the public make money with this team.
After the Buffalo blowout, you know what the Patriots went against the spread the rest of the year including the playoffs? 1-10 ATS.
I honestly feel we are dealing with a Saints team the linemaker has decided to do the same thing with but the only difference is they are not waiting for week 11 to jack the line up like they did with New England.
They started last week with the -11 number with Atlanta, and it continued this week with a 13 number with the Panthers.
Learned my lesson on Monday night. Simple as that.
10 dime CAROLINA
25 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - Love the Chargers in this spot here.
Who are the Giants to be laying more than a field goal to anybody right now?
Seriously folks, this is a team that over the last 3 weeks has gone from contender to pretender. Simple as that.
It started in New Orleans 3 weeks ago, when the Saints exposed this Giants defense to a degree we haven't seen under Tom Coughlin.
Then 2 weeks ago, Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals went into New York and exposed Giants even more in getting the outright win as a 7 point underdog.
Last week the Eagles showed what happened against New Orleans and Arizona was no accident as they embarrassed New York in a big way.
The Giants for all intents and purposes, are done.
Mark it down now. They are done and the main reason they are done is the fact they can't cover anybody.
The can't get pressure with their front four so they are having to blitz more, and if you know anything about the NFL, then you should know if you blitz in this league, the chances are you are playing man to man behind it and if those guys can't cover, you are in big trouble.
After they play the Chargers today, they play Atlanta, at Denver, Dallas and Philly. Quite frankly, I can see them losing all 4 of those games. They catch a break facing Washington after that but then they finish with Carolna and at Minnesota.
I know this might be hard to accept but 8-8 is probably reality, or even 7-9 isn't out of the question. That is how bad and overrated this team is.
At the NFL level, when you lose your defensive coordinator - as good as Spagnuola is, there is a very good chance your defense is going to struggle which is exactly what we are seeing from New York. They look lost.
Even after their implosion the last 3 weeks, the Giants are still an overvalued team. Highly overvalued, and I will gladly take the Chargers who I feel match up very well offensively against this Giants defense and will be able to have enough success to be in this game the whole way.
I will gladly take the Chargers and the points and it wouldn't suprise me in the least bit to see San Diego win this game outright.
25 dime CHARGERS
10 DIME - CAROLINA PANTHERS - Way to many points here.
I have to admit, I didn't give the Panthers a chance out in Arizona last week but let me tell you something right now, that was the way I remember the Panthers playing.
The way they ran the football and put Jake in very manageable situations, that is how this team used to win football games.
Now they are catching close to 2 touchdowns here against a division foe they are very familiar with and having gotten the money 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Watching the Monday night game and seeing the success the Falcons were having on the ground against this Saints defense, I immediately felt the Panthers would be able to do the same thing today.
Carolina will attack this game exactly the same way they did Arizona last week. Run the football. Run the football some more. Run the football until you can't run the football anymore.
Can the Panthers win this game outright? You better believe they can, and if they win the turnover battle, they just might.
But catching this many points from a Saints team that all of a sudden is overvalued.
Folks, 2 years ago the linemaker in Vegas got burned by the high scoring Patriots as they covered their 10 games to start the year and the public killed the Vegas sportsbooks right along with it.
After they blew out Buffalo on Sunday night 56-10, oddsmakers in Vegas said that's it. We are not letting this team beat us again.
The next 6 weeks of the regular season the Patriots were laying 24 at home to Philly, 20 1/2 on the road at Baltimore, 24 at home to the Jets, 24 at home to the Dolphins and 13 on the road at New York.
That gives you and idea of how the linemakers overvalued the Patriots because they weren't going to let the public make money with this team.
After the Buffalo blowout, you know what the Patriots went against the spread the rest of the year including the playoffs? 1-10 ATS.
I honestly feel we are dealing with a Saints team the linemaker has decided to do the same thing with but the only difference is they are not waiting for week 11 to jack the line up like they did with New England.
They started last week with the -11 number with Atlanta, and it continued this week with a 13 number with the Panthers.
Learned my lesson on Monday night. Simple as that.
10 dime CAROLINA
DCI
Sunday, November 8, 2009
ATLANTA 26, Washington 10
Arizona 25, CHICAGO 23
Baltimore 21, CINCINNATI 18
INDIANAPOLIS 26, Houston 18
JACKSONVILLE 23, Kansas City 19
NEW ENGLAND 29, Miami 19
Green Bay 28, TAMPA BAY 18
NEW ORLEANS 38, Carolina 20
SEATTLE 29, Detroit 15
N.Y. GIANTS 28, San Diego 25
SAN FRANCISCO 25, Tennessee 17
PHILADELPHIA 26, Dallas 23
Sunday, November 8, 2009
ATLANTA 26, Washington 10
Arizona 25, CHICAGO 23
Baltimore 21, CINCINNATI 18
INDIANAPOLIS 26, Houston 18
JACKSONVILLE 23, Kansas City 19
NEW ENGLAND 29, Miami 19
Green Bay 28, TAMPA BAY 18
NEW ORLEANS 38, Carolina 20
SEATTLE 29, Detroit 15
N.Y. GIANTS 28, San Diego 25
SAN FRANCISCO 25, Tennessee 17
PHILADELPHIA 26, Dallas 23
DUNKEL NFL
Miami at New England
The Dolphins look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10 1/2 points or more. Miami is the pick (+11) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+11). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8
Game 403-404: Kansas City at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.034; Jacksonville 125.702
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6 1/2); Under
Game 405-406: Baltimore at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 139.210; Cincinnati 131.603
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Under
Game 407-408: Houston at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 133.049; Indianapolis 146.460
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 13 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9; 48
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9); Over
Game 409-410: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.846; Atlanta 136.496
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 10 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 10; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-10); Under
Game 411-412: Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.700; Tampa Bay 123.756
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 13; 46
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9 1/2); Over
Game 413-414: Arizona at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 138.376; Chicago 133.581
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 5; 47
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Over
Game 415-416: Miami at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 135.151; New England 140.472
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 11; 47
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+11); Over
Game 417-418: Carolina at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 131.413; New Orleans 150.044
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 18 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 13 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-13 1/2); Under
Game 419-420: Detroit at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.599; Seattle 133.403
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 18; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 43
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Under
Game 421-422: Tennessee at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 123.416; San Francisco 134.540
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4; 41
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4); Over
Game 423-424: San Diego at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 131.610; NY Giants 141.914
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4 1/2); Under
Game 425-426: Dallas at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 140.059; Philadelphia 136.419
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Under
Miami at New England
The Dolphins look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 10 1/2 points or more. Miami is the pick (+11) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+11). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8
Game 403-404: Kansas City at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.034; Jacksonville 125.702
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6 1/2); Under
Game 405-406: Baltimore at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 139.210; Cincinnati 131.603
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Under
Game 407-408: Houston at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 133.049; Indianapolis 146.460
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 13 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 9; 48
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-9); Over
Game 409-410: Washington at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.846; Atlanta 136.496
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 10 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 10; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-10); Under
Game 411-412: Green Bay at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.700; Tampa Bay 123.756
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 13; 46
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-9 1/2); Over
Game 413-414: Arizona at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 138.376; Chicago 133.581
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 5; 47
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Over
Game 415-416: Miami at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 135.151; New England 140.472
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 11; 47
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+11); Over
Game 417-418: Carolina at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 131.413; New Orleans 150.044
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 18 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 13 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-13 1/2); Under
Game 419-420: Detroit at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.599; Seattle 133.403
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 18; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 43
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Under
Game 421-422: Tennessee at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 123.416; San Francisco 134.540
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4; 41
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4); Over
Game 423-424: San Diego at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 131.610; NY Giants 141.914
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4 1/2); Under
Game 425-426: Dallas at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 140.059; Philadelphia 136.419
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Under
