King Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet 457 ATL / 458 NYG OVER 50.0 SportsInterAction
ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 50.5 or less points
These two teams are two of the quicker offenses in the NFL. Both run a version of a no-huddle, fast-paced attack. It’s therefore no surprise that both the Giants and Falcons are both ranked in the Top Ten in offensive plays per game. Atlanta games have averaged 58.2 ppg on the season, and New York games have averaged 57.9 ppg on the year. The Falcons are tied for NUMBER ONE in the leagu†e in overall offense, with 444.0 yards per game. And they’re ranked second LAST (#31) in overall team defense (430 ypg allowed and 34 ppg allowed). This one has all the makings of a back-and-forth high scoring affair. Last team with the ball wins?
The Falcons play in the NFC South while the G-Men represent the NFC East… 10-2 O/U since 2009: All NFC EAST Division home favorites (GIANTS) versus a NFC SOUTH Division opponent (FALCONS).
The Giants play with extended rest off their most recent game. A Thursday affair against division rival Washington. A GREAT situation tells us to go OVER for these teams off a Thursday win… 21-1 O/U since 2008: All non-division teams playing off a THURSDAY SU win that also went OVER the Total (GIANTS).
In that last game, the G-Men were a division underdog… and scored a whopping 45 points… 7-1-1 O/U since 1988: All home favorites off a SU underdog win in which they scored 45 > pts (GIANTS) when the OU line is 41 > points.
Atlanta had an exact OPPOSITE result as the Giants did last week. While the G-Men were off a dog win, the Falcons s**t the bed as a road favorite… and lost to the Vikings by more than double-digits (Minnesota was our DOG of the WEEK last week)… 5-0 O/U since 2004: All NFL road teams off a SU non-division road FAV loss of 10 or more points that also went OVER the Total (FALCONS) when the OU line is 45 > pts.
Atlanta allowed 41 points last week, and scored 56 points two weeks ago in their win against the Buccaneers… 5-0 O/U since 2003: All road underdogs who ALLOWED 40+ pts in their last game… and SCORED 40+ pts in the game before that (FALCONS).
Yes, the OU line in this game is high. But this has been a great Week of the Season for high-scoring results when the OU line is relatively HIGH… and the home team is favored…. 5-0 O/U since 2000: All GAME FIVE home favorites of < 9 points (GIANTS) when the OU line is 49 or more.
465 BAL / 466 IND OVER 48.5 SportsInterAction
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 49 or less points
Two of the NFL’s TOP SIX offensive teams will ‘have at it’ INDOORS on Sunday as the Colts host the Ravens. Indy has scored 41 and 44 points in their last 2 games, and put up 498 and 529 offensive yards in the process (393 and 385 passing yards to boot). It’s about time that we grabbed a piece of that Indy ‘OVER action’ (Colts are 4-0 O/U this season). Meanwhile, Baltimore just exploded for 454 offensive yards in their 38-10 home win over the Panthers. Looks like a shootout is in order, especially knowing that both teams also allow 250 > passing YPG this season on defense.
This a great week for OVERS in the AFC Conference when both teams are off a win… 9-1 O/U since† 2003: All GAME 5 AFC home favs off a SU win (IND) vs any AFC opponent also off a SU win (BAL).
It’s also a high-scoring week for INDOOR games… GAME 5 Dome favorites of < 6 pts (INDY) have gone 15-3 O/U snce 2000... including a PERFECT 6-0 O/U when the OU line is > 46 points.
The host Colts come in off BB DOMINATING division wins (vs Ten and Jax)… 6-0 O/U since 1994: All non-division favs of < 12 pts off BB division wins of 20 > pts each (COLTS).
We also inputted Indy’s team scoring in those last 2 games… 11-1 O/U since 1991: All home teams who scored 41 > pts in their last 2 gms (COLTS) when the OU line is > 42 points.
Up next for the Colts is a Thursday affair against the Texans… 9-1 O/U last 5 years: All home favorites BEFORE a THURSDAY game (COLTS) when the OU line is 47 > points.
Baltimore just took down a NFC opponent (Carolina) by 28 points last Sunday… 6-0 O/U last 4 years: All AFC road teams (RAVENS) off a SU non-conference home WIN of 21 > points.
So both of these teams are off back-to-back SU wins that both went OVER the Total… 7-0 O/U since 1996: All non-division home favorites of < 6 points when BOTH teams (INDY + BALT) are off BB SU wins that BOTH went OVER the Total.
Current form (both in Top Nine in QBR ratings) of gunslinger QBs Andrew Luck and Joe Flacco = Indoor SHOOTOUT
467 PIT / 468 JAC OVER 47.5 Hilton
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimu†m OU line: 47.5 or less points
Our third OVER of the day goes in the Florida game between Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. Sharp Totals Players are already aware of the Jaguar’s OU tendencies. They come into Sunday’s game with the clear-cut WORST defense in the league, allowing a whopping 451 yards per game and 38.0 ppg. Total combined points in Jaguars games this season: 68.7! So it’s surprise that they’ve gone a perfect 4-0 O/U this season. On the flip side, Steeler games have also been high-scoring… at a combined 48.7 on the year. They’ve allowed 26 or more points in THREE out of four games this season. And the bring the league’s 8th best passing offense (265.0 passing YPG) into this game.
At last look, Pittsburgh was the biggest road favorite on the board for Sunday (-6 to -7 points). That’s a good sign for a high-scoring outcome… 7-1-1 O/U last 5 years: All GAME 13 or less non-division road favorites of -6 > pts (PITT) when the OU line is > 45 pots and < 54 pts…. 9-0-1 O/U since 2007: All GAME 13 or less non-division road favorites of -7 > pts, with an OU line of > 45 points.
The Steelers were on the wring side of one of the most shocking results of the season last week. They were -7 at home vs the Buccaneers, and lost LATE by a final score of 27 to 24… 9-1 O/U since 2009: All non-division teams off a SU home loss of 3 < pts in a game in which they were a FAV of -7 > pts (STEELERS).
Pittsburgh’s surprising loss last week was to a non-conference (NFC) opponent… 7-1 O/U last 3 years: All AFC CONFERENCE road teams playing off a SU non-conference home FAVORITE loss (PITTSBURGH) versus any opponent off a SU loss (JACKSONVILLE).
We inputted Jacksonville’s current 4-game OVER streak into our Pro Football database… 7-1-1 O/U since 1988: All GAME FIVE underdogs of < 16 pts off 4 straight ‘Overs’ in a row (JAGS)… when the OU line is 47 or less points. NON-division games have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U.
Jacksonville’s margin of defeat in their first four games of the year has been -19 pts, -27 pts, -31 pts, and -17 pts… 7-1 O/U since 1985: All GAME SEVEN or less non-division underdogs off 3 or more DOUBLE-DIGIT losses in a row (JAGUARS) when the OU line is 45 > points.
The Jaguars are one of only TWO winless teams in the league after four weeks… 6-1 O/U last 5 years: All GAME FIVE winless home teams (JAGUARS).