Sunday Night Football: Bengals at Patriots
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+1, 46)
Coming off one of the most embarrassing defeats during the Bill Belichick regime, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots hope to get back on track when they host the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night. It's the second prime-time matchup in seven days for the Patriots, who appeared ill-equipped to deal with the bright lights in a 41-14 drubbing at Kansas City. New England has lost back-to-back games only four times since 2003, the most recent coming in September 2012.
Brady is averaging under 200 yards passing and was picked off twice in the debacle against the Chiefs, leading to whispers that age may have caught up to the 37-year-old quarterback, who acknowledged: "I don't think we've played well for a long time." Meanwhile, the Bengals are well rested following their bye week and have surrendered only three touchdowns while permitting a league-best 11.0 points per game. Cincinnati beat the visiting Patriots 13-6 last season, snapping Brady's streak of throwing a touchdown pass in 52 consecutive games.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Bengals -1. O/U: 46
LINE HISTORY: Line initially opened with the Patriots -3, but bettors hammered the Bengals after New England's last performance. Patriots are now +1. The opening total of 46 has yet to shift.
INJURY REPORT: Bengals - WR Marvin Jones (Ques-Foot), LB Vontaze Burfict (Ques-Concussion), G Kevin Zeitler (Ques-Calf) Patriots - CB Alfonzo Dennard (Ques-Shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (Eligible-Suspension), WR Aaron Dobson (Ques-Foot)
WEATHER: Foxborough will have clear skies, but will be cold for the game with temperatures around 48°. There will be light winds of 6 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-5.25) - Patriots (-1) + Home Field (-3) = Bengals -1.25
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Battle of two teams appeared headed in opposite directions. A closer however look finds the undefeated Bengals have actually been out gained in two of their three games this season. The Patriots suffered an embarrassing loss Monday night at Kansas City and will need to rebound here to save face. Unless the offense comes around that could be a big hurdle." Marc Lawrence
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Amazing, that this line was Patriots -3 last Monday, but after their performance versus the Chiefs, we reopened Tuesday morning at pick. At pick, we got flooded with Bengals money and went to Bengals -1 and eventually to -1.5, a number we dealt most of the week and up until Saturday morning. This morning, we booked sharp action on the Pats +1.5, forcing us down to Bengals -1. With over 65 percent of the action on the Bengals, I see us eventually getting back to -1.5 on them, but we have to respect the sharp money that bet the Pat’s. As for the total, we 46 and we've booked good two way action and haven’t moved off our opener." Peter Childs
ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Quarterback Andy Dalton has been criticized for failing to win a playoff game, but his 33 victories since 2011 rank second in the league - behind only Brady - and he has a pair of dangerous weapons in wideout A.J. Green and dual-threat running back Giovani Bernard. Green missed nearly all of Week 2 due to a turf-toe injury but has two 100-yard games and is coming off a pair of 11-touchdown seasons in which he hauled in 98 and 97 passes. Bernard is tied with Green for the team lead with 12 receptions while rushing for three scores and has a capable backup in powerful rookie Jeremy Hill, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Carlos Dunlap has three of seven sacks for Cincinnati, which has six interceptions in the first three games.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Brady, who has already been sacked nine times behind a struggling offensive line and is completing a career-worst 59.1 percent of his passes, was yanked during the dismal effort in Kansas City. “I don’t think in any phase of the game we’re playing the way we need to play in order to compete at a high level week in and week out," Brady said. The running game lacks consistency while Julian Edelman has 26 catches to lead a receiving corps that lacks a playmaker with tight end Rob Gronkowski still not in top form less than a full year from undergoing ACL surgery. New England made major moves to revamp its defense in the offseason, including the signing of cornerback Darrelle Revis, but was gashed for 207 yards rushing by the Chiefs.
TRENDS:
*Bengals are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
*Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
*Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 home games.
CONSENSUS: 59.07% are taking the Bengals -1 with 58.03 percent on the over.
Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+1, 46)
Coming off one of the most embarrassing defeats during the Bill Belichick regime, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots hope to get back on track when they host the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night. It's the second prime-time matchup in seven days for the Patriots, who appeared ill-equipped to deal with the bright lights in a 41-14 drubbing at Kansas City. New England has lost back-to-back games only four times since 2003, the most recent coming in September 2012.
Brady is averaging under 200 yards passing and was picked off twice in the debacle against the Chiefs, leading to whispers that age may have caught up to the 37-year-old quarterback, who acknowledged: "I don't think we've played well for a long time." Meanwhile, the Bengals are well rested following their bye week and have surrendered only three touchdowns while permitting a league-best 11.0 points per game. Cincinnati beat the visiting Patriots 13-6 last season, snapping Brady's streak of throwing a touchdown pass in 52 consecutive games.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Bengals -1. O/U: 46
LINE HISTORY: Line initially opened with the Patriots -3, but bettors hammered the Bengals after New England's last performance. Patriots are now +1. The opening total of 46 has yet to shift.
INJURY REPORT: Bengals - WR Marvin Jones (Ques-Foot), LB Vontaze Burfict (Ques-Concussion), G Kevin Zeitler (Ques-Calf) Patriots - CB Alfonzo Dennard (Ques-Shoulder), CB Brandon Browner (Eligible-Suspension), WR Aaron Dobson (Ques-Foot)
WEATHER: Foxborough will have clear skies, but will be cold for the game with temperatures around 48°. There will be light winds of 6 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Bengals (-5.25) - Patriots (-1) + Home Field (-3) = Bengals -1.25
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Battle of two teams appeared headed in opposite directions. A closer however look finds the undefeated Bengals have actually been out gained in two of their three games this season. The Patriots suffered an embarrassing loss Monday night at Kansas City and will need to rebound here to save face. Unless the offense comes around that could be a big hurdle." Marc Lawrence
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Amazing, that this line was Patriots -3 last Monday, but after their performance versus the Chiefs, we reopened Tuesday morning at pick. At pick, we got flooded with Bengals money and went to Bengals -1 and eventually to -1.5, a number we dealt most of the week and up until Saturday morning. This morning, we booked sharp action on the Pats +1.5, forcing us down to Bengals -1. With over 65 percent of the action on the Bengals, I see us eventually getting back to -1.5 on them, but we have to respect the sharp money that bet the Pat’s. As for the total, we 46 and we've booked good two way action and haven’t moved off our opener." Peter Childs
ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Quarterback Andy Dalton has been criticized for failing to win a playoff game, but his 33 victories since 2011 rank second in the league - behind only Brady - and he has a pair of dangerous weapons in wideout A.J. Green and dual-threat running back Giovani Bernard. Green missed nearly all of Week 2 due to a turf-toe injury but has two 100-yard games and is coming off a pair of 11-touchdown seasons in which he hauled in 98 and 97 passes. Bernard is tied with Green for the team lead with 12 receptions while rushing for three scores and has a capable backup in powerful rookie Jeremy Hill, who is averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Carlos Dunlap has three of seven sacks for Cincinnati, which has six interceptions in the first three games.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Brady, who has already been sacked nine times behind a struggling offensive line and is completing a career-worst 59.1 percent of his passes, was yanked during the dismal effort in Kansas City. “I don’t think in any phase of the game we’re playing the way we need to play in order to compete at a high level week in and week out," Brady said. The running game lacks consistency while Julian Edelman has 26 catches to lead a receiving corps that lacks a playmaker with tight end Rob Gronkowski still not in top form less than a full year from undergoing ACL surgery. New England made major moves to revamp its defense in the offseason, including the signing of cornerback Darrelle Revis, but was gashed for 207 yards rushing by the Chiefs.
TRENDS:
*Bengals are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
*Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
*Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games overall.
*Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 home games.
CONSENSUS: 59.07% are taking the Bengals -1 with 58.03 percent on the over.
GC: NFL SYSTEM Play
NFL at or near the top of most major leader boards. Sunday card has 5 Powerful plays led by the 6* Afternoon Blowout that has 2 Perfect systems and 5 angles that combined add to 61-0, their is a 26-0 Sunday night NFL Top play, the Non Divisional Total of the Month in early action along with an early 5* side and a MLB Total in the evening game with 7 big angles. NFL System Play below.
On Sunday in early action the NFL System Club play is on the Cleveland Browns. Game 453 at 1:00 eastern. Some powerful systems in this game. We play against home favorites of less than 5 off back to back road less like the Titans the last of which was by 30 or more points if they have no rest. These home teams are 2-11 ats A 44-17 system plays on Cleveland here as we again go against home favorites that allowed 35 or more as a road dog and lost to the spread by 10+ points. The Titans are 0-8 ats off a road game. The Browns are 6-0 ats as a dog vs a non division team before a home game. With Tennessee 5-15 ats when the total is more than 42 up to 49. We will see what Brown can do for you today. On Sunday a huge pack is up and posted as NFL is at or near the top of several major leader boards. The 6* Afternoon blowout with systems and angles that combined are 61-0, the 26-0 Sunday night NFL Game of the Month, the 100% Non Division total of the month in early action and MLB Power total in evening action are all up. Jump on and end the week big with the most powerful data in the country. For the Bonus Play take the Cleveland Browns. GC
NFL at or near the top of most major leader boards. Sunday card has 5 Powerful plays led by the 6* Afternoon Blowout that has 2 Perfect systems and 5 angles that combined add to 61-0, their is a 26-0 Sunday night NFL Top play, the Non Divisional Total of the Month in early action along with an early 5* side and a MLB Total in the evening game with 7 big angles. NFL System Play below.
On Sunday in early action the NFL System Club play is on the Cleveland Browns. Game 453 at 1:00 eastern. Some powerful systems in this game. We play against home favorites of less than 5 off back to back road less like the Titans the last of which was by 30 or more points if they have no rest. These home teams are 2-11 ats A 44-17 system plays on Cleveland here as we again go against home favorites that allowed 35 or more as a road dog and lost to the spread by 10+ points. The Titans are 0-8 ats off a road game. The Browns are 6-0 ats as a dog vs a non division team before a home game. With Tennessee 5-15 ats when the total is more than 42 up to 49. We will see what Brown can do for you today. On Sunday a huge pack is up and posted as NFL is at or near the top of several major leader boards. The 6* Afternoon blowout with systems and angles that combined are 61-0, the 26-0 Sunday night NFL Game of the Month, the 100% Non Division total of the month in early action and MLB Power total in evening action are all up. Jump on and end the week big with the most powerful data in the country. For the Bonus Play take the Cleveland Browns. GC
SPORTSWAGERS
NFL
Atlanta +4½ -106 over N.Y. GIANTS
(Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Giants have awoken from the dead. After looking unplayable and very sloppy in its first two games of the season against Detroit and Arizona, New York responded with wins over Houston and Washington and we’re focusing in on the latter. That was a Thursday night game in which the G-Men clobbered Washington and those featured games always have a bigger over/under reaction than any Sunday afternoon game because it is watched by the masses. We’re like everyone else in that it’s difficult to get a good read on a team that can look so bad one week and so good the next. We’re not clairvoyant either in knowing which of those Giants team will show up but here’s what we do know. The Giants stock is high after that nationally televised game, which once again sets up a sell high opportunity. We alo know that the Giants have Philadelphia and Dallas up next, with the former being another nationally televised game next Sunday at 8:30 PM. This is precisely the type of situation in which the Giants usually fall flat on their faces.
Enter the Falcons, a team that just put a serious beat down on the Buccaneers two weeks ago and that had a golden opportunity to get off to a 3-1 start, especially seeing as they were playing a Minnesota team that was without Adrian Peterson, Kyle Rudolph, its best run blocking offensive lineman and playing a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. Vegas reported that Atlanta took more money last week than any other team in the NFL and all that money went down the drain. That sticks in bettors minds. After losing with a team that they figured couldn’t lose, those same gamblers are very reluctant to come back on that same team the following week. That’s where we come in. We’ve often said the best time to jump on a team is when everyone jumps off and that applies here. This one sets up well for the Dirty Birds in that their stock is now low and they are perceived as a team that has no shot of winning on the road. Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off a blowout win over Washington in prime time and they have the Eagles and Cowboys on deck. Situational betting is a key component in our selection process and this one fits perfectly.
Cleveland @ TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE -2 -104 over Cleveland
(Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)
We’re a month into the season and the Browns can be considered one of the surprise teams thus far with three extremely close games that all came down to the final drive. In Week 1, the Brownies rallied from a big deficit to nearly get by Pittsburgh. In Week 2, they caused a lot of ripped tickets when they defeated the overhyped Saints. In Week 3, Baltimore needed a FG on the final play of the game to defeat the Browns. That’s three games against three very recognizable teams, all decided by a combined seven points. The Brownies stock is high and that makes us sellers. Let us remind you that Cleveland has not won on the road since Sept. 13 of last season against Minnesota, a span of 375 days. Cleveland has lost 10 of its last 11 road games and 18 of its past 20. That may change here but they didn’t catch the Titans at the right time.
Remember the Titans? Tennessee was viewed as the only team with a legitimate shot at competing with Indianapolis for the AFC South title. After going into Kansas City and laying a beatin’ down in unfriendly confines, all those who had made them a trendy pick to be one of the up and coming teams in the AFC were full of themselves. Since then, they have lost by 16 at home to Dallas, by 26 at Cincinnati and by 27 at Indianapolis. Tennessee’s stock is WAY down and that makes us buyers. Jake Locker is back this week. Locker and HC Ken Whisenhunt have been working extensively together to improve Locker’s game. You can expect more rollouts, bootlegs and play-action this week from Locker and the Titans offense. Three intense games later, the inability to stop both the passing and running games (Cleveland ranks 27th and 29th in those two departments respectively) a vulnerability to losing on the road and the Titans being embarrassed for three straight weeks are all factors working against the Brownies in their bid for another cover. We’re stepping in.
Baltimore @ INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS -3½ -101 over Baltimore
Posted Friday at 2:30 PM EST
We played against the Ravens last week and got creamed. Anyone else that played against them also got creamed. The Ravens were one of the featured teams in highlight reels this past week with the big story being Steve Smith sticking it to his old team. When the Panthers cut loose Steve Smith, there were some who speculated he signed with the Ravens simply because they were playing the Panthers. Just like everything else, the media blows it way out of proportion. The Ravens used Steve Smith’s energy and motivation to destroy a very average Panthers’ squad. The NFL hasn’t stopped talking about that all week and now we’ll play against that. Baltimore hasn’t been as great as advertised. They lost to the Bengals in Week 1 by 7 points. In Week 2, they beat the Steelers but were dominated for three quarters. In Week 3, they needed a last play FG to defeat Cleveland in a game they outgained the Earth Tones by 2 yards. Finally, last week, Baltimore had its first dominant performance and that’s not enough incentive for us to back them here.
The Colts are on a two game streak of 40+ points from their offense. The Colts are not stumbling on offense like the Panthers were. The Colts are not stumbling at all. Indy lost its first two games against Philly and Denver but rebounded back to defeat Jacksonville and Tennessee. The betting world sees that. They see two victories over two cupcakes and two losses against two quality clubs. That said, Indy could have won both those games and surely could have put away the Eagles a few times. Andrew Luck is currently the #1 quarterback thanks to 14 touchdowns and an average of 326 passing yards per game. It would be easy to say Luck played well because they faced the Jaguars and the Titans but it’s more than that. He played well against Denver and Philly also. He has complete control of the offense. Luck’s ability to spread the ball around has been impressive. He has completed passes to 17 different players and that makes it tough on any defense. Baltimore has not played well at this venue either, losing by an average of 13 points in its last four visits here. That may not change in this one.
Note: This is an interesting game in terms of line movement and while this game is not an official wager yet, there’s a good chance will pull the trigger on Sunday. We’ll wait and decide later whether or not this will be an official play. For now, no bets but stay tuned.
N.Y. Jets @ SAN DIEGO
N.Y. Jets +6½ -102 over SAN DIEGO
Posted Friday at 2:30 PM EST
This is another classic case of buying low and selling high. The Chargers are getting a lot of press ever since they defeated and dominated the Seahawks in a 30-21 final. The following week they went into then 2-0 Buffalo and won comfortably against the Bills. Last week, the Chargers won and covered again and they are now 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. Folks are riding them for all they’re worth but this week you will pay a premium to wager on them. The Chargers could be in for a big surprise this week. The rushing game is in big need of help. Ryan Mathews remains out with a sprained knee. Danny Woodhead is gone for the year and Donald Brown took over but he only gained 19 yards on 10 carries on the Jaguars. The rushing game figures to be an issue again here and let’s also not ignore that the Chargers have three AFC West matchups waiting on the other side of this game, which also makes them vulnerable.
With one win this year (against Oakland) in four starts, the Jets stock is extremely low. That makes us instant buyers. The good news is that they had a chance to be 4-0. The Jets had the ball down by one score late in the fourth quarter in each of their last three games against Green Bay, Chicago and Detroit and The Jets lost them all but at least they’ve been right there against some pretty stiff competition and high octane offenses. The Chargers style will suit the Jets just fine. San Diego is not an explosive team like Detroit, Green Bay or Chicago. They are a more methodical team that seldom blows out anyone. One of the worst spots for a significant favorite is playing a home game again after defeating a very weak opponent the previous week. We'll take the points with an undervalued Jets bunch that's vastly improved but the results don’t show it. A solid defense, a ball-control offense and reasonable confidence are all good underdog traits, and it wouldn't surprise us one bit to see the Jets win outright.
Note: We’ll wait until Sunday to step in here as there is a very good chance of this number moving to a key +7. We’ll surely be able to get 6½ anytime so waiting would be the prudent decision.
NFL
Atlanta +4½ -106 over N.Y. GIANTS
(Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Giants have awoken from the dead. After looking unplayable and very sloppy in its first two games of the season against Detroit and Arizona, New York responded with wins over Houston and Washington and we’re focusing in on the latter. That was a Thursday night game in which the G-Men clobbered Washington and those featured games always have a bigger over/under reaction than any Sunday afternoon game because it is watched by the masses. We’re like everyone else in that it’s difficult to get a good read on a team that can look so bad one week and so good the next. We’re not clairvoyant either in knowing which of those Giants team will show up but here’s what we do know. The Giants stock is high after that nationally televised game, which once again sets up a sell high opportunity. We alo know that the Giants have Philadelphia and Dallas up next, with the former being another nationally televised game next Sunday at 8:30 PM. This is precisely the type of situation in which the Giants usually fall flat on their faces.
Enter the Falcons, a team that just put a serious beat down on the Buccaneers two weeks ago and that had a golden opportunity to get off to a 3-1 start, especially seeing as they were playing a Minnesota team that was without Adrian Peterson, Kyle Rudolph, its best run blocking offensive lineman and playing a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start. Vegas reported that Atlanta took more money last week than any other team in the NFL and all that money went down the drain. That sticks in bettors minds. After losing with a team that they figured couldn’t lose, those same gamblers are very reluctant to come back on that same team the following week. That’s where we come in. We’ve often said the best time to jump on a team is when everyone jumps off and that applies here. This one sets up well for the Dirty Birds in that their stock is now low and they are perceived as a team that has no shot of winning on the road. Meanwhile, the Giants are coming off a blowout win over Washington in prime time and they have the Eagles and Cowboys on deck. Situational betting is a key component in our selection process and this one fits perfectly.
Cleveland @ TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE -2 -104 over Cleveland
(Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)
We’re a month into the season and the Browns can be considered one of the surprise teams thus far with three extremely close games that all came down to the final drive. In Week 1, the Brownies rallied from a big deficit to nearly get by Pittsburgh. In Week 2, they caused a lot of ripped tickets when they defeated the overhyped Saints. In Week 3, Baltimore needed a FG on the final play of the game to defeat the Browns. That’s three games against three very recognizable teams, all decided by a combined seven points. The Brownies stock is high and that makes us sellers. Let us remind you that Cleveland has not won on the road since Sept. 13 of last season against Minnesota, a span of 375 days. Cleveland has lost 10 of its last 11 road games and 18 of its past 20. That may change here but they didn’t catch the Titans at the right time.
Remember the Titans? Tennessee was viewed as the only team with a legitimate shot at competing with Indianapolis for the AFC South title. After going into Kansas City and laying a beatin’ down in unfriendly confines, all those who had made them a trendy pick to be one of the up and coming teams in the AFC were full of themselves. Since then, they have lost by 16 at home to Dallas, by 26 at Cincinnati and by 27 at Indianapolis. Tennessee’s stock is WAY down and that makes us buyers. Jake Locker is back this week. Locker and HC Ken Whisenhunt have been working extensively together to improve Locker’s game. You can expect more rollouts, bootlegs and play-action this week from Locker and the Titans offense. Three intense games later, the inability to stop both the passing and running games (Cleveland ranks 27th and 29th in those two departments respectively) a vulnerability to losing on the road and the Titans being embarrassed for three straight weeks are all factors working against the Brownies in their bid for another cover. We’re stepping in.
Baltimore @ INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS -3½ -101 over Baltimore
Posted Friday at 2:30 PM EST
We played against the Ravens last week and got creamed. Anyone else that played against them also got creamed. The Ravens were one of the featured teams in highlight reels this past week with the big story being Steve Smith sticking it to his old team. When the Panthers cut loose Steve Smith, there were some who speculated he signed with the Ravens simply because they were playing the Panthers. Just like everything else, the media blows it way out of proportion. The Ravens used Steve Smith’s energy and motivation to destroy a very average Panthers’ squad. The NFL hasn’t stopped talking about that all week and now we’ll play against that. Baltimore hasn’t been as great as advertised. They lost to the Bengals in Week 1 by 7 points. In Week 2, they beat the Steelers but were dominated for three quarters. In Week 3, they needed a last play FG to defeat Cleveland in a game they outgained the Earth Tones by 2 yards. Finally, last week, Baltimore had its first dominant performance and that’s not enough incentive for us to back them here.
The Colts are on a two game streak of 40+ points from their offense. The Colts are not stumbling on offense like the Panthers were. The Colts are not stumbling at all. Indy lost its first two games against Philly and Denver but rebounded back to defeat Jacksonville and Tennessee. The betting world sees that. They see two victories over two cupcakes and two losses against two quality clubs. That said, Indy could have won both those games and surely could have put away the Eagles a few times. Andrew Luck is currently the #1 quarterback thanks to 14 touchdowns and an average of 326 passing yards per game. It would be easy to say Luck played well because they faced the Jaguars and the Titans but it’s more than that. He played well against Denver and Philly also. He has complete control of the offense. Luck’s ability to spread the ball around has been impressive. He has completed passes to 17 different players and that makes it tough on any defense. Baltimore has not played well at this venue either, losing by an average of 13 points in its last four visits here. That may not change in this one.
Note: This is an interesting game in terms of line movement and while this game is not an official wager yet, there’s a good chance will pull the trigger on Sunday. We’ll wait and decide later whether or not this will be an official play. For now, no bets but stay tuned.
N.Y. Jets @ SAN DIEGO
N.Y. Jets +6½ -102 over SAN DIEGO
Posted Friday at 2:30 PM EST
This is another classic case of buying low and selling high. The Chargers are getting a lot of press ever since they defeated and dominated the Seahawks in a 30-21 final. The following week they went into then 2-0 Buffalo and won comfortably against the Bills. Last week, the Chargers won and covered again and they are now 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. Folks are riding them for all they’re worth but this week you will pay a premium to wager on them. The Chargers could be in for a big surprise this week. The rushing game is in big need of help. Ryan Mathews remains out with a sprained knee. Danny Woodhead is gone for the year and Donald Brown took over but he only gained 19 yards on 10 carries on the Jaguars. The rushing game figures to be an issue again here and let’s also not ignore that the Chargers have three AFC West matchups waiting on the other side of this game, which also makes them vulnerable.
With one win this year (against Oakland) in four starts, the Jets stock is extremely low. That makes us instant buyers. The good news is that they had a chance to be 4-0. The Jets had the ball down by one score late in the fourth quarter in each of their last three games against Green Bay, Chicago and Detroit and The Jets lost them all but at least they’ve been right there against some pretty stiff competition and high octane offenses. The Chargers style will suit the Jets just fine. San Diego is not an explosive team like Detroit, Green Bay or Chicago. They are a more methodical team that seldom blows out anyone. One of the worst spots for a significant favorite is playing a home game again after defeating a very weak opponent the previous week. We'll take the points with an undervalued Jets bunch that's vastly improved but the results don’t show it. A solid defense, a ball-control offense and reasonable confidence are all good underdog traits, and it wouldn't surprise us one bit to see the Jets win outright.
Note: We’ll wait until Sunday to step in here as there is a very good chance of this number moving to a key +7. We’ll surely be able to get 6½ anytime so waiting would be the prudent decision.
EZWINNERS
EZ's Plays For Sunday
A winning day on Saturday cashing in two out of three of my small college football plays. Six NFL selections on my card for Sunday. Best of luck.
-EZ
3* (451) Chicago Bears +3
The Panthers free fall that many predicted is in full force. Carolina has been dominated in back to back games by the Steelers and Ravens and they have issues on both sides of the ball. The offense is decimated with injuries. The once loaded roster of running backs is now very thin. Quarterback Cam Newton looks like a 50 year old man trying to play quarterback with a gimpy ankle and banged up ribs. The defense that was so tough last season and finished as the #2 ranked unit in the NFL has allowed 75 points the last two weeks. Chicago has injury issues of their own on the defensive side of the ball, but with rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin as they only real threat I expect them to do a good job against this struggling Carolina offense. The Bears have a ton of offensive weapons with wide receivers Ashton Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, tight end Marcellus Bennet and running back Matt Forte. I just don't see how Carolina will hold this group down for an entire game. With the state that this Carolina team is in at the moment, they should not be laying points against a quality team. Play on Chicago.
3* (453) Cleveland Browns +1.5
After winning their first game of the season, the Titans have lost three straight. The offense for Tennessee has looked horrible. Jake Locker looked pretty bad after week one and is nursing a wrist injury. Charlie Whitehurst didn't look any better filling in for Locker. The Titans defense has not played bad, but they can only do so much for an offense that is averaging just fifteen points per game. Cleveland is just 1-2 on the season, but they have played pretty well. The Browns are coming off of a bye and have a very manageable schedule the next few games starting with this one. Brian Hoyer has played well running the Cleveland offense that is averaging just under 25 points per game. The Browns should also have the services of starting running back Ben Tate and tight end Jordan Cameron back for this game as well. Cleveland's defense was expected to play much better than they have, but I expect them to play well here. Take the points.
3* (457) Atlanta Falcons +4
I was on Minnesota last week as they ran all over the Falcons and picked up the upset win. The NFL is really funny because a team can go from looking unbeatable to looking like shit in a week. Atlanta was coming off of a huge win over Tampa Bay on Thursday just like the Giants are coming off of a huge win over the Redskins last Thursday. I expected this line to be closer to a touchdown considering last weeks results which also tells me that Atlanta is the play here. I'm still not convinced that the Giants have magically turned things around enough to be asked to win games by a margin. The Falcons still have a lost of offensive firepower and asking them to lose by no more than a field goal does not seem like a daunting task. Since 1990, road underdogs off a loss in which they allowed forty or more points are 84-61 (58%) against the spread. Take the points.
3* (462) Dallas Cowboys -6.5
The Cowboys are in first place at 3-1 and are coming off of a dominating win over the Saints last Sunday night. That's what makes this pick a bit scary. Dallas has always seemed to lay and egg as a home favorite against teams they should beat, but I'm going to give them a shot here. The Texans are also 3-1 and in first place in their division, but Houston has to be one of the least impressive first place teams that I can recall. Houston was unable to run the ball last week against Buffalo and quarterback Ryan Fitzpaterick didn't do much thru the air. Houston pulled off the win and the cover thanks mostly to JJ Watt making a pick six! Houston's defense is still struggling to stop the run and I believe that will doom them against Dallas and running back DeMarco Murry who leads the NFL in rushing. Once the Texans safety's come up to help with the run the play action will be wide open. Houston's three wins have come against teams who quarterback QBR ranks 25th or worse in the league. Their loss was to Eli Manning who is 6th in the NFL in QBR and this week they face Tony Romo who is 4th in the league in QBR. I look for the Boy's to carve up this defense. Lay the points.
3* (463) Buffalo Bills +7
The Bills really reached when they took EJ Manual in the first round and it looks like they have decided to pull the plug on that experiment, at least for now. Kyle Orton will get the start in this game which will be a big upgrade at the position (I can't believe I just said that!). Orton has experience and should make better decisions. He also throws a better deep ball than EJ Manual which will make Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins the dangerous weapons that they should be. The Detroit defense has been one of the best in the league, but this will be the toughest test they have faced this season trying to stop the running game of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Detroit's offense is always one of the best, but the Lions are hurting at the running back position with Bell sidelined for this game and star wide receiver Calvin Johnson is nursing an ankle injury. The Buffalo defense has played very well this season and you know they will have a very good game plan with ex Lions head coach Jim Schwartz running the Buffalo defense. Take the points.
3* (475) Cincinnati Bengals PICK
The Patriots had their asses handed to them last Monday night in Arrowhead Stadium by the Chiefs and I do not like them to bounce back in this Sunday Night Football matchup with Cincinnati. Teams playing in the second of back to back primetime games (Sunday night and Monday night only) are now just 2-18 against the spread in the last twenty games. New England has big problems with their offensive line and Tom Brady is not looking confident in the pocket. The Patriots defense was exposed by the Kansas City running and Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith carved up this defense. That spells trouble against a Bengals team that is one of the most complete teams in the NFL. Cincinnati has had two weeks to prepare as they are coming off of their bye week. The Bengals defense is ranked #4 in the league and I think they will give this Patriots offense fits, epically on 3rd down where the Patriots are not very good. Offensively the Bengals bye week also gave wide receiver AJ Green time to be 100% healthy. Play on Cincinnati.
EZ's Plays For Sunday
A winning day on Saturday cashing in two out of three of my small college football plays. Six NFL selections on my card for Sunday. Best of luck.
-EZ
3* (451) Chicago Bears +3
The Panthers free fall that many predicted is in full force. Carolina has been dominated in back to back games by the Steelers and Ravens and they have issues on both sides of the ball. The offense is decimated with injuries. The once loaded roster of running backs is now very thin. Quarterback Cam Newton looks like a 50 year old man trying to play quarterback with a gimpy ankle and banged up ribs. The defense that was so tough last season and finished as the #2 ranked unit in the NFL has allowed 75 points the last two weeks. Chicago has injury issues of their own on the defensive side of the ball, but with rookie wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin as they only real threat I expect them to do a good job against this struggling Carolina offense. The Bears have a ton of offensive weapons with wide receivers Ashton Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, tight end Marcellus Bennet and running back Matt Forte. I just don't see how Carolina will hold this group down for an entire game. With the state that this Carolina team is in at the moment, they should not be laying points against a quality team. Play on Chicago.
3* (453) Cleveland Browns +1.5
After winning their first game of the season, the Titans have lost three straight. The offense for Tennessee has looked horrible. Jake Locker looked pretty bad after week one and is nursing a wrist injury. Charlie Whitehurst didn't look any better filling in for Locker. The Titans defense has not played bad, but they can only do so much for an offense that is averaging just fifteen points per game. Cleveland is just 1-2 on the season, but they have played pretty well. The Browns are coming off of a bye and have a very manageable schedule the next few games starting with this one. Brian Hoyer has played well running the Cleveland offense that is averaging just under 25 points per game. The Browns should also have the services of starting running back Ben Tate and tight end Jordan Cameron back for this game as well. Cleveland's defense was expected to play much better than they have, but I expect them to play well here. Take the points.
3* (457) Atlanta Falcons +4
I was on Minnesota last week as they ran all over the Falcons and picked up the upset win. The NFL is really funny because a team can go from looking unbeatable to looking like shit in a week. Atlanta was coming off of a huge win over Tampa Bay on Thursday just like the Giants are coming off of a huge win over the Redskins last Thursday. I expected this line to be closer to a touchdown considering last weeks results which also tells me that Atlanta is the play here. I'm still not convinced that the Giants have magically turned things around enough to be asked to win games by a margin. The Falcons still have a lost of offensive firepower and asking them to lose by no more than a field goal does not seem like a daunting task. Since 1990, road underdogs off a loss in which they allowed forty or more points are 84-61 (58%) against the spread. Take the points.
3* (462) Dallas Cowboys -6.5
The Cowboys are in first place at 3-1 and are coming off of a dominating win over the Saints last Sunday night. That's what makes this pick a bit scary. Dallas has always seemed to lay and egg as a home favorite against teams they should beat, but I'm going to give them a shot here. The Texans are also 3-1 and in first place in their division, but Houston has to be one of the least impressive first place teams that I can recall. Houston was unable to run the ball last week against Buffalo and quarterback Ryan Fitzpaterick didn't do much thru the air. Houston pulled off the win and the cover thanks mostly to JJ Watt making a pick six! Houston's defense is still struggling to stop the run and I believe that will doom them against Dallas and running back DeMarco Murry who leads the NFL in rushing. Once the Texans safety's come up to help with the run the play action will be wide open. Houston's three wins have come against teams who quarterback QBR ranks 25th or worse in the league. Their loss was to Eli Manning who is 6th in the NFL in QBR and this week they face Tony Romo who is 4th in the league in QBR. I look for the Boy's to carve up this defense. Lay the points.
3* (463) Buffalo Bills +7
The Bills really reached when they took EJ Manual in the first round and it looks like they have decided to pull the plug on that experiment, at least for now. Kyle Orton will get the start in this game which will be a big upgrade at the position (I can't believe I just said that!). Orton has experience and should make better decisions. He also throws a better deep ball than EJ Manual which will make Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins the dangerous weapons that they should be. The Detroit defense has been one of the best in the league, but this will be the toughest test they have faced this season trying to stop the running game of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Detroit's offense is always one of the best, but the Lions are hurting at the running back position with Bell sidelined for this game and star wide receiver Calvin Johnson is nursing an ankle injury. The Buffalo defense has played very well this season and you know they will have a very good game plan with ex Lions head coach Jim Schwartz running the Buffalo defense. Take the points.
3* (475) Cincinnati Bengals PICK
The Patriots had their asses handed to them last Monday night in Arrowhead Stadium by the Chiefs and I do not like them to bounce back in this Sunday Night Football matchup with Cincinnati. Teams playing in the second of back to back primetime games (Sunday night and Monday night only) are now just 2-18 against the spread in the last twenty games. New England has big problems with their offensive line and Tom Brady is not looking confident in the pocket. The Patriots defense was exposed by the Kansas City running and Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith carved up this defense. That spells trouble against a Bengals team that is one of the most complete teams in the NFL. Cincinnati has had two weeks to prepare as they are coming off of their bye week. The Bengals defense is ranked #4 in the league and I think they will give this Patriots offense fits, epically on 3rd down where the Patriots are not very good. Offensively the Bengals bye week also gave wide receiver AJ Green time to be 100% healthy. Play on Cincinnati.
GMC NFL Selections
462 Houston +6.5
466 Indianapolis -3
470 Denver -7.5
472 San Francisco-5
476 New England +1
462 Houston +6.5
466 Indianapolis -3
470 Denver -7.5
472 San Francisco-5
476 New England +1
StatFox Super Situations
MLB | LA ANGELS at KANSAS CITY
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games
64-36 since 1997. ( 64.0% | 31.1 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | 1.3 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | BALTIMORE at DETROIT
BALTIMORE is 22-8 (+15.8 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.0)
MLB | LA ANGELS at KANSAS CITY
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) average offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games
64-36 since 1997. ( 64.0% | 31.1 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | 1.3 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | BALTIMORE at DETROIT
BALTIMORE is 22-8 (+15.8 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.0)
Hondo
Griddy Hondo hopes for the best
Rutgers failed in its measly mission, which was to beat Michigan by more than two points Saturday night. However, the Scarlet Knights did win by two, so Hondo’s deficit held firm at 1,375 wietechas.
Sunday: Mr. Aitch expects Prince Amukamara and the Giants to unload on the Falcons — 10 units. Also, 10 apiece on his other Best Bets, the Broncos and Bengals.
Griddy Hondo hopes for the best
Rutgers failed in its measly mission, which was to beat Michigan by more than two points Saturday night. However, the Scarlet Knights did win by two, so Hondo’s deficit held firm at 1,375 wietechas.
Sunday: Mr. Aitch expects Prince Amukamara and the Giants to unload on the Falcons — 10 units. Also, 10 apiece on his other Best Bets, the Broncos and Bengals.
Today's NFL Picks
Cincinnati at New England
The Bengals come into the Sunday night contest following a 33-7 win over Tennessee two weeks ago and carrying a 13-4 ATS record in their last 17 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Cincinnati is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1). Here are all of this week's picks.
Cincinnati at New England
The Bengals come into the Sunday night contest following a 33-7 win over Tennessee two weeks ago and carrying a 13-4 ATS record in their last 17 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Cincinnati is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1). Here are all of this week's picks.
| SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5 Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (10/1) |
| Game 451-452: Chicago at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.769; Carolina 130.767 Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 49 Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over |
| Game 453-454: Cleveland at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.186; Tennessee 133.182 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 48 Vegas Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+1 1/2); Over |
| Game 455-456: St. Louis at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 126.313; Philadelphia 136.073 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 10; 43 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7); Under |
| Game 457-458: Atlanta at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 128.379; NY Giants 135.217 Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 7; 55 Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4; 50 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-4); Over |
| Game 459-460: Tampa Bay at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.937; New Orleans 133.394 Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: New Orleans by 10 1/2; 48 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+10 1/2); Under |
| Game 461-462: Houston at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.610; Dallas 129.115 Dunkel Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 46 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+6); Over |
| Game 463-464: Buffalo at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.295; Detroit 137.332 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10; 40 Vegas Line: Detroit by 7; 44 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-7); Under |
| Game 465-466: Baltimore at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 139.229; Indianapolis 139.627 Dunkel Line: Even; 43 Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3 1/2); Under |
| Game 467-468: Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 136.104; Jacksonville 126.048 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 50 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Over |
| Game 469-470: Arizona at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 127.433; Denver 140.986 Dunkel Line: Denver by 13 1/2; 53 Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 49 Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7); Over |
| Game 471-472: Kansas City at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 138.838; San Francisco 136.857 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 41 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+6 1/2); Under |
| Game 473-474: NY Jets at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 130.911; San Diego 129.631 Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 39 Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 43 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+7); Under |
| Game 475-476: Cincinnati at New England (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 139.630; New England 135.686 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 51 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 46 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1); Over |
Today's MLB Picks
LA Angels at Kansas City
The Royals look to clinch the ALDS series tonight and face an Angels team that is 0-7 in C. J. Wilson's last 7 starts as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
LA Angels at Kansas City
The Royals look to clinch the ALDS series tonight and face an Angels team that is 0-7 in C. J. Wilson's last 7 starts as an underdog. Kansas City is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
| SUNDAY, OCTOBER 5 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST |
| Game 917-918: Baltimore at Detroit (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 16.621; Detroit (Price) 15.559 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+160); Over |
| Game 919-920: LA Angels at Kansas City (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 15.109; Kansas City (Shields) 16.756 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 7 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Under |
