NOW I CAN PARLAY THAT COMMISSION ON ONE OF KELSO'S 50* I'M THE BEST!!!!!!
Bob Balfe
NFL Football
Lions +3.5 over Bears
Detroit is off to yet another bad start, but after firing team president Matt Millen this team must feel reborn and ready to head in the right direction. The Bears turned the ball over too many times last week against the Eagles and are lucky to have won that game. Detroit has so many weapons on offense and are lucky that a few defensive players on Chicago are hurt or suspended. This obviously is a must win for the Lions. Take Detroit.
Seahawks/Giants Over 44.5
Plaxico Burress will be out again for the Giants, but I don't think it will matter much. Both offenses have huge height, weight and experience advantages against the guy that they are going head to head against. Seattle has a few receivers coming back that have yet to play this year. Look out for this Seattle team in the next few weeks. Look for both teams to put up a lot of points. Take the Over.
Arizona -1 over Buffalo
The Cardinals will be without their best receiver today and the Bills are 4-0. So does it make sense that Arizona is favored against the best team record wise in the NFL? I do give this team credit, but in the last two weeks they had to battle back hard to beat the two worst teams in the NFL. Buffalo will be without their top cornerback and possible Marcus Stroud. The Cardinals should play good home defense and score enough points in their system to win this game. Take Arizona.
Jaguars -4 over Steelers
Pittsburgh looked awful last Monday on offense until very late in the game. The Steelers also allowed a rookie QB drive all the way down the field to tie the game up in the closing minutes. This would never happen in past years. The Steelers have no running game as all their backs are hurt. Jacksonville has two strong backs that will have a field day against a Steelers front three missing two of their starters. Big Ben is still hurting and I just don't see how the Steelers keep up on the road. Take the Jaguars.
NFL Football
Lions +3.5 over Bears
Detroit is off to yet another bad start, but after firing team president Matt Millen this team must feel reborn and ready to head in the right direction. The Bears turned the ball over too many times last week against the Eagles and are lucky to have won that game. Detroit has so many weapons on offense and are lucky that a few defensive players on Chicago are hurt or suspended. This obviously is a must win for the Lions. Take Detroit.
Seahawks/Giants Over 44.5
Plaxico Burress will be out again for the Giants, but I don't think it will matter much. Both offenses have huge height, weight and experience advantages against the guy that they are going head to head against. Seattle has a few receivers coming back that have yet to play this year. Look out for this Seattle team in the next few weeks. Look for both teams to put up a lot of points. Take the Over.
Arizona -1 over Buffalo
The Cardinals will be without their best receiver today and the Bills are 4-0. So does it make sense that Arizona is favored against the best team record wise in the NFL? I do give this team credit, but in the last two weeks they had to battle back hard to beat the two worst teams in the NFL. Buffalo will be without their top cornerback and possible Marcus Stroud. The Cardinals should play good home defense and score enough points in their system to win this game. Take Arizona.
Jaguars -4 over Steelers
Pittsburgh looked awful last Monday on offense until very late in the game. The Steelers also allowed a rookie QB drive all the way down the field to tie the game up in the closing minutes. This would never happen in past years. The Steelers have no running game as all their backs are hurt. Jacksonville has two strong backs that will have a field day against a Steelers front three missing two of their starters. Big Ben is still hurting and I just don't see how the Steelers keep up on the road. Take the Jaguars.
SPORTS ADVISORS
Indianapolis (1-2 SU and ATS) at Houston (0-3, 1-2 ATS)
The Colts, already three games behind in the win column in their division, travel to Reliant Stadium for an AFC South matchup against the Texans, who are finally playing their first home game following the destruction of Hurricane Ike.
Indianapolis, which had its bye last week, got beat by Jacksonville 23-21 Sept. 21 as a four-point home favorite, losing on Josh Scobee’s last-second, 51-yard field goal. QB Peyton Manning (15 of 29, 216 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) had a very subpar day, with one of his picks going 61 yards the other way for a Jags TD. Indy also had a huge time-of-possession deficit (41:35-18:25) and gave up 236 rushing yards.
Houston took that same Jacksonville team to overtime last week before falling 30-27 as a 6½-point road underdog, the first time the Texans have cashed this year. QB Matt Schaub was solid, going 29 of 40 for 307 yards and three TDs, with no turnovers. In fact, the contest was extremely even, Houston outgaining Jacksonville 386-375 and neither team committing a turnover.
Indianapolis has gone 9-1 SU (5-5 ATS) in the last 10 in this rivalry (all as a favorite), including winning both games last year, though Houston got the cash at home in a 30-24 loss catching 6½ points. The home team is on a 4-0 ATS run, and the Texans are 4-1 ATS in the last five series clashes at Reliant.
The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last seven roadies, but they are mired in pointspread slides of 1-4 overall, 2-9 in division play, 1-4 after a SU loss and 3-7 against losing teams. The Texans are on a 9-4 ATS run as a home ‘dog in division play, and they’ve cashed in four straight at home, but they are on ATS slides of 2-5 in division play and 4-9 against the AFC.
The last six meetings in this rivalry have gone over the total, and the over is on further runs of 5-0 for Houston overall,16-5 for Houston inside the division and 5-2 for Indy against AFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Tennessee (4-0 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (2-1, 3-0 ATS)
The Titans aim to stay among the slim ranks of the unbeaten when they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Ravens, with two of the league’s top defenses on display.
Tennessee topped Minnesota 30-17 as a three-point home chalk to remain perfect on the season both SU and ATS. It was the most points the Titans have allowed this season, but the defense more than made up for it by forcing four turnovers – three fumble recoveries and an INT – and recording four sacks. Meanwhile, QB Kerry Collins (18 of 35, 199 yards) had a turnover-free day.
Baltimore forced Pittsburgh to overtime before falling 23-20 Monday night, but covered as a six-point road pup. QB Joe Flacco (16 of 31, 192 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a fairly clean game, but his lone mistake – a fumble – was returned for a TD that gave Pittsburgh the lead.
Tennessee has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), including a 27-26 home loss two years ago as a seven-point ‘dog. In fact, the underdog is on 13-3 ATS when these former division rivals square off.
The Titans are on a 4-8 ATS decline as a road chalk, but the pointspread trends turn positive from there, including 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 against AFC foes and 12-5 on the highway. The Ravens have cashed in four of their last five at M&T, but they are riding a 3-10 ATS freefall coming off a SU loss, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games coming off a Monday night appearance.
The under for Tennessee is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 5-1 against the AFC, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in four of the last five meetings overall and five of the last seven in Baltimore. However, the Ravens are on “over” sprees of 8-2 overall and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
San Diego (2-2 SU and ATS) at Miami (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Chargers, getting back on track after an 0-2 start, make the cross-country trek to South Beach to take on the Dolphins.
San Diego erased a 15-0 halftime deficit en route to a 28-18 victory over Oakland, winning and cashing as a nine-point favorite for the second straight week. QB Philip Rivers (14 of 25, 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was sacked four times, but he got it together in the second half, aided by RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who finished with 106 yards and two TDs, including a late 41-yard jaunt to secure the spread-cover.
Miami took last week off after its shocking 38-13 road rout of New England on Sept. 21 as a 12½-point road underdog. QB Chad Pennington was almost flawless in that victory, going 17 of 20 for 226 yards to lead an offense that had no turnovers against the defending AFC champs. However, RB Ronnie Brown (17 carries, 113 yards) stole the show, running for four TDs and passing for another as the Fish racked up an astounding 461-215 advantage in total yards.
Miami has won and cashed in the last four meetings against San Diego, but the two teams haven’t met since 2005, when the Dolphins scored a 23-21 road upset catching 12½ points. The road team is on a 5-1 ATS streak in this rivalry.
The Chargers are on an 0-4 ATS slide as a non-division road favorite, but otherwise they are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 6-0-1 on the road, 9-1 after a SU win, 9-1 after a spread-cover and 23-9-1 against losing teams. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are in a 2-9 ATS freefall at home and carry further negative ATS streaks of 7-21-1 after a spread-cover and 9-19 after a SU win.
The over for San Diego is on runs of 4-0 this season, 13-3-2 on the road and 4-1 against AFC foes, and the total has gone high in six of Miami’s last eight outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Kansas City (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at Carolina (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS)
The Chiefs, finally free of their 12-game losing skid that dated to last season, travel to Charlotte for a non-conference clash with the Panthers.
Kansas City rode RB Larry Johnson to a 33-19 upset of Denver as a heavy 9½-point home underdog for its first win since last October. Johnson rolled up 198 yards and two TDs on 28 carries, complementing a mistake-free game from QB Damon Huard (21 of 28, 160 yards, 1 TD), and the Chiefs defense forced four turnovers.
Carolina dumped Atlanta 24-9 as a seven-point home chalk last Sunday. The Panthers outgained the Falcons by a healthy 401-268 margin, paced by a solid effort from QB Jake Delhomme (20 of 29, 294 yards, 2 TDs) in a turnover-free game for both teams. WR Muhsin Muhammad had eight catches for 147 yards and a TD.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with Carolina going 2-0 ATS (1-1 SU), most recently winning 28-17 as a seven-point road ‘dog in 2004.
Despite the Chiefs’ breakthrough last week and a 7-2 ATS mark in their last nine roadies, they still carry negative ATS streaks of 6-10-1 against the NFC, 2-5 against winning teams and 2-5-1 after a spread-cover. The Panthers are on positive pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 at home and 5-1-1 overall.
The under is 9-4 in Kansas City’s last 13 road games, and for Carolina, the under is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 20-8-1 at home and 6-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and UNDER
Washington (3-1 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (2-2, 3-1 ATS)
The surging Redskins head out on the road to face an NFC East rival for the second straight week, this time battling the Eagles, who are in need of a win to keep pace in the league’s strongest division.
Washington shocked Dallas 26-24 catching 10½ points on the road, winning and cashing for the third straight week after losing its season opener at the Giants. QB Jason Campbell (20 of 31, 231 yards, 2 TDs) still has not committed a turnover this season, and RB Clinton Portis (21 carries, 121 yards) helped the Redskins post a whopping 16-minute advantage in time of possession against the Cowboys.
Philadelphia struggled to put the ball in the end zone in a 24-20 loss at Chicago laying three points on Sunday night. QB Donovan McNabb (25 of 41, 262 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) led just two field-goal drives in the second half, along with a late-fourth-quarter drive that was stuffed on three straight attempts from inside the Bears’ 2-yard line.
Washington is 4-2-1 ATS (3-4 SU) in the last six meetings in this rivalry, and the road team won and covered in both clashes last year.
The Redskins are on ATS runs of 7-2 overall and 4-1 inside the division, but they are 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road contests. The Eagles sport positive ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 against the NFC, 7-2 after a SU loss and 10-4 against winning teams.
The under is 6-2-1 in the last nine clashes in this rivalry, and the under is also 9-4 in Washington’s last 13 games when coming off an ATS win and 4-0 in Philly’s last four at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Chicago (2-2, 2-1-1 ATS) at Detroit (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Lions, who finally rid themselves of team president Matt Millen during their bye week, hopes the move inspires them to their first victory of 2008 when they host the rival Bears at Ford Field.
Detroit got drummed 31-13 by San Francisco two weeks ago as a five-point road pup and fired Millen shortly thereafter, having lost 10 of their last 11 games SU and ATS dating to midseason last year. QB Jon Kitna (15 of 30, 146 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had another subpar effort, and his TD-to-INT ratio is now 5-5. The Lions were outgained 370-240 in San Francisco and had nearly 12 minutes less in time of possession.
Chicago earned a 24-20 victory over Philadelphia as a three-point home ‘dog Sunday night. QB Kyle Orton (18 of 34, 199 yards) had three TD passes, but he also had all four of the Bears’ turnovers on two INTs and two lost fumbles. He was bailed out by a defense that allowed just two field goals in the second half and made a late goal-line stand to clinch the win, stopping the Eagles on three straight plays from inside the 2-yard line.
Detroit has cashed in three straight games in this series, sweeping last year’s season series before the Lions’ current slump began. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head clashes.
The Lions are on a 4-0 ATS run coming off a bye week, but they are on pointspread skids of 6-12-1 overall, 4-10 getting points and 3-6-1 in home divisional games. The Bears, meanwhile, are on positive ATS streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 6-2 on the highway and 4-1-1 against the NFC.
The over for Chicago is on tears of 21-6-1 against NFC foes, 12-4 against losing teams and 7-3-1 inside the division, and for Detroit, the over is on runs of 8-1 overall, 4-0 in NFC North tilts and 4-0 at home. Finally, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Atlanta (2-2 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Packers return home looking to halt a two-game skid when they face the Falcons at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay rallied to take a 21-20 fourth-quarter lead against Tampa Bay in Week 4, then gave up the last 10 points of the game in a 30-21 loss as a one-point road ‘dog. QB Aaron Rodgers (14 of 27, 165 yards) had a terrible day, offsetting two TD passes with his first three INTs of the year, and the Pack finished with a pathetic 181 total yards and a nearly 14-minute deficit in time of possession.
Atlanta lost to Carolina 24-9 getting seven points on the road and is now 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season but 0-2 SU and ATS on the road – and both road losses came by identical 24-9 final scores as a seven-point pup. Rookie QB Matt Ryan was unleashed a bit against the Panthers, throwing 41 passes, but he completed just 21 for 158 yards, with no TDs or INTs. The Falcons allowed 401 yards, while gaining just 268.
These two teams last met in the regular season in 2005, with Green Bay posting a 33-25 road win as a nine-point pup. The road team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, all in the underdog role.
Despite back-to-back SU and ATS defeats, the Packers are still on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 16-6-1 overall, 7-2-1 as a home chalk, 7-1-2 after a non-cover, 5-1-1 after a SU loss and 16-7-2 against the NFC. Meanwhile, the Falcons have failed to cover in four of their last five on the highway.
For Green Bay, the over is on runs of 20-8 overall, 6-1 at home and 14-3 in conference games, and the over for Atlanta is 9-2 in its last 11 overall and 7-2 in its last nine against NFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Seattle (1-2 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Giants aim to remain unbeaten when they return from their bye to face the Seahawks in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York barely held off Cincinnati two weeks ago, winning 26-23 in overtime as an overwhelming 13-point home favorite. QB Eli Manning (26 of 43, 289 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was steady in a clean turnover-free game by both teams.
Seattle was also off last week after rolling over St. Louis 37-13 as a nine-point home chalk two Sundays ago. QB Matt Hasselbeck (12 of 20, 172 yards, 1 TD) let the running game carry him, as the Seahawks rushed for 245 yards, paced by Julius Jones’ 140 yards and a TD on 22 carries. Seattle posted a 407-240 total yardage edge and a 10-minute advantage in time of possession.
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings with New York, most recently earning a 42-30 home win giving 3½ points in 2006.
The Giants are just 1-5-1 ATS coming off the bye the past seven years, but they are on several positive ATS runs, including 16-5 overall, 5-0 against the NFC and 6-1 after a SU win. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have a definite aversion to cross-country trips, though, with a 4-13 ATS mark in their last 17 contests in the Eastern time zone, including a season-opening loss at Buffalo. They carry further ATS slides of 0-4 in roadies, 7-13 as a road pup, 2-6 on the road against winning teams and 2-8 coming off the bye.
The over for New York is 6-2 in its last eight home contests, but the under is on runs of 11-3 after a bye and 6-2 against the NFC. For Seattle, the over is on tears of 6-0 overall, 5-0 against NFC foes, 8-1 after the bye week and 4-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Tampa Bay (3-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
The Buccaneers aim to run their winning streak to four when they travel to Invesco Field at Mile High for a non-conference clash with the Broncos.
Tampa Bay overcame three second-half INTs from QB Brian Griese – with the last returned for a TD – to beat Green Bay 30-21 as a one-point home chalk in Week 4. Griese’s miscues turned a 20-7 lead into a 21-20 deficit, but he led a field-goal drive to put the Bucs back up, and RB Earnest Graham (20 carries, 111 yards) made his last two carries count – a 47-yarder, followed by a 1-yarder for a TD. It ended up being a close game despite Tampa’s 327-181 yardage edge and a nearly 13-minute bulge in time of possession.
Denver was dealt its first loss in surprising fashion, falling 33-19 to Kansas City as a 9½-point road favorite as the Chiefs snapped a 12-game losing streak. QB Jay Cutler (29 of 49, 361 yards, 1 TD) had a monster game, but he was playing from behind most of the day and also had a lost fumble to go with two picks as the Broncos lost the turnover battle 4-1. The suspect Denver defense also let RB Larry Johnson rumble for 198 yards and two TDs on 28 carries.
These two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Denver earned a 16-13 road, pushing as a three-point favorite.
The Bucs have failed to cash in nine of their last 10 road games against the AFC. And the Broncos are on a bevy of ATS slides, including 7-20-1 overall, 4-11-1 at Mile High, 2-9 at home against the NFC and 2-8 as a non-division home favorite.
The over has cashed in Denver’s first four games this season and is on further streaks for the Broncos of 20-5 overall, 12-2 at home and 7-2-1 against winning teams. Likewise, the over for Tampa is on stretches of 8-2 overall and 7-3 in roadies – including the last six in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at San Francisco (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Patriots, coming off one of their most stunning losses short of last season’s Super Bowl upset, look to right the ship when they return from their bye by making a West Coast trip to Monster Park to take on the 49ers.
New England got punched in the mouth by Miami two weeks ago in a 38-13 loss as a 12½-point home chalk. The Pats gained just 215 total yards – one yard less than the Dolphins had on the ground alone, as Miami finished with a whopping 461 total yards. New England also failed to force any turnovers, while committing two.
San Francisco had its two-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped in last week’s 31-17 loss at New Orleans as a four-point ‘dog. The Niners had a fair offensive day, with 312 total yards, but they got plowed over by the Saints’ high-octane offense, which finished with 467 yards, paced by QB Drew Brees’ 363 passing yards and three TDs.
New England and San Francisco have met just three times in the past 10 years, with the Pats going 3-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, New England earned a 21-7 home win in 2005 laying 13 points.
The Patriots have cashed just once in their last nine games, yet they still carry positive ATS trends into this game of 10-3-1 against the NFC, 8-3 coming off the bye, 14-4-1 after a SU loss and 14-5 on the highway. The 49ers are on a 4-1 ATS run hosting the AFC, but they are on ATS skids of 3-7 after a SU loss and 1-4 against winning teams.
The under is 4-1 in New England’s last five overall, 5-2-1 in San Francisco’s last eight overall and 5-1 in its last six at Monster Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Pittsburgh (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Jacksonville (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
The Steelers make their second straight prime-time appearance when they head south to nothern Florida to take on the Jaguars at Alltel Stadium in a rematch of last year’s exciting wild-card playoff battle.
Pittsburgh fended off Baltimore 23-20 in overtime, failing to cash as a six-point home chalk Monday night for its third consecutive non-cover. Neither offense was particularly proficient, with the Steelers getting slightly outgained 243-237 as Pittsburgh’s ailing backfield ran for just 69 yards. QB Ben Roethlisberger was a serviceable 14 of 24 for 191 yards with one TD and one INT.
Jacksonville also went to overtime last week, edging Houston 30-27 giving 6½ points at home. QB David Garrard was a typically efficient 23 of 32 for 236 yards and a TD in a very evenly played contest, as neither team committed a turnover and the Jags lost the total-yardage battle by a scant 11 yards, 386-375. For the second straight week, Josh Scobee kicked a game-winning field goal.
Jacksonville went to Pittsburgh last January and slugged out a 31-29 win as a 2½-point road favorite to knock the Steelers out of the playoffs. The Jaguars have won four straight against the Steelers and are on a 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Finally, the home team is on a 15-5 ATS tear in this rivalry, but the underdog has gotten the money in the last six.
The Steelers are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the highway (1-5 ATS) and are on further ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 1-4 after a SU win and 3-8 against the AFC. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have cashed just twice in their last seven outings, but they carry a 6-2 ATS mark in their last eight against winning teams.
The over for Pittsburgh is on stretches of 6-2 overall and 5-1 against the AFC, and for Jacksonville, the over is on streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 4-1-2 at home and 9-2-2 against the AFC. However, the under is 6-1 in the last seven Steelers-Jags clashes in Jacksonville.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
N.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Philadelphia (2-1) at Milwaukee (1-2)
Having staved off elimination with a Game 3 victory Saturday, the Brewers once again face a must-win situation this afternoon when they send veteran Jeff Suppan (10-10, 4.96 ERA) to the mound at Miller Park, while the Phillies counter with Joe Blanton (4-0, 4.20).
J.J. Hardy went 3-for-4 and was one of four Brewers to drive in runs, and five Brewers pitchers kept Philadelphia in check en route to Saturday’s 4-1 victory, Milwaukee’s first postseason win since 1982. The Brewers, who snapped a seven-game losing streak to the Phillies with last night’s victory, have now won seven of their last eight home games and they’re 50-32 at Miller Park this season. However, they’re still mired in slumps of 4-13 against winning teams and 1-9 against N.L. East foes.
The Phillies, who got swept in last year’s divisional round and are looking to advance to their first N.L. Championship Series since 1993, are still on runs of 15-4 overall, 5-2 on the road, 8-1 against the N.L. Central, 13-4 versus winning teams, 20-8 against right-handed starters and 55-27 on Sundays.
Despite struggling against the Phillies this year (2-7), the Brewers have won nine of the last 11 meetings in Milwaukee. Also, the home team is 8-1 in the nine battles in 2008.
Suppan gave up one run on five eight hits in five innings in his final regular-season start on Sept. 26, pitching the Brewers to a critical 5-1 home win over the Cubs. Despite that effort, Suppan struggled mightily in September, going 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA in five starts, four of which Milwaukee lost. The veteran went 3-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 13 home starts this year.
Suppan is just 3-6 with a beefy 6.13 ERA in 12 career starts against the Phillies, including 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA in two outings this year. In fact, going back to his days with the Cardinals, Philadelphia is on a 7-0 run in games started by Suppan. Also, he’s 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA in nine career playoff starts.
Blanton started the season in Oakland, where he went 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA in 20 starts before being traded to Philadelphia, where he was unbeaten in four decisions, including going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his final three regular-season outings. The Phillies went 9-4 in Blanton’s 13 starts, including 3-3 on the road, where the burly right-hander wsa 5-3 with a 5.37 ERA overall this year (2-0, 4.96 ERA with Philadelphia).
Blanton’s lone career start against the Brewers was on Sept. 14 in Philadelphia, and he allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits in seven innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 7-3 victory. Finally, his postseason experience is limited to one relief appearance with the A’s in 2006, and he pitched two scoreless innings against the Tigers.
The under is 3-0 in the last four meetings between these teams (3-0 in this series) and is on further runs of 7-1 for the Brewers overall, 5-1 for the Brewers at home, 40-17-4 for the Brewers against the N.L. East, 8-3 for the Phillies overall, 5-1 for the Phillies on the road and 5-1 for the Phillies in the playoffs. Finally, the under is 7-0 in Suppan’s last seven starts against the N.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
A.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Tampa Bay (2-0) at Chicago White Sox (0-2)
The White Sox return to U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago looking to stave off elimination, and they’ll send southpaw John Danks (12-9, 3.32) to the hill against the Rays’ Matt Garza (11-9, 3.70) in Game 3 of this best-of-5 American League Divisional Series. It’s the first playoff start for both pitchers.
Tampa Bay took the first two games at home, winning 6-4 on Wednesday and 6-2 on Friday, when lefty Scott Kazmir got through a shaky first inning to get the win. The Rays have now won seven of the last eight matchups with the White Sox, including two of three in Chicago in late August. Tampa’s pitching has allowed just 13 runs in the last seven wins over the White Sox.
Tampa is 0-5 in Garza’s last five outings against A.L. Central squads, but they are on runs of 7-3 overall, 4-1 against teams with a winning record, 5-1 after a win and 9-3 following an off day. Meanwhile, Chicago is just 1-5 in Danks’ last six outings against the A.L. East and the White Sox are just 3-7 in their last 10 overall, but they are on positive runs of 42-18 at home, 8-2 in playoff games, 5-1 in home playoff contests and 39-14 at home against teams with a losing road record.
The Rays have struggled with Garza on the hill lately, losing five of his final seven regular-season starts, including a 4-3 road loss in Detroit eight days ago when he allowed three runs in five innings. Garza was 4-6 with a 4.53 ERA on the road, and the Rays won just five of his 15 starts on the highway. Finally, he is 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA in three career starts against Chicago in just 12 2/3 innings of work, but hasn’t faced them since he was in the Twins’ rotation last September.
Danks was magnificent for the White Sox in their one-game playoff to decide the A.L. Central champ on Tuesday, blanking the Twins on two hits for eight innings of the 1-0 victory. He’s shutout the opposition in three of his last four starts but those are the only three wins Chicago has in his last eight appearances.
Danks faced the Rays three times this season, dominating them twice in Tampa and allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 9-4 home loss in August. For his career, Danks is 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in 24 1/3 innings against the Rays.
The under is 5-2 in Garza’s last seven roadies, but otherwise the Rays are on over runs of 5-1 on the road, 6-2 overall, 11-4 against A.L. Central squads and 7-2 on Sundays. The under is 7-3 in Danks’ last 10 home starts, 12-4 when he faces a team with a winning record and 22-8-2 in Chicago’s last 32 against the A.L. East, but the over is 6-2 in their last eight playoff games and 8-3 in their last 11 following an off day.
Finally, the under is 13-4 in the last 17 series meetings between these clubs, including Friday’s game that barely stayed under the 8½ total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
L.A. Angels (0-2) at Boston (2-0)
The Red Sox will try to make it 12 straight playoff wins over the Angels and finish a sweep of the team with the best record in baseball when they send Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03) to the mound at Fenway Park opposite Los Angeles lefty Joe Saunders (17-7, 3.41).
Boston got a dramatic 7-5 win Friday in Anaheim when J.D. Drew drove a Frankie Rodriguez pitch into the seats in the ninth inning for a two-run homer after the Angels had tied the game in the bottom of the eighth. Los Angeles won eight of nine against Boston in the regular season, but the Red Sox continue to dominate the postseason, winning 11 straight against the Halos, including divisional sweeps in 2004 and 2007.
The Angels have won five straight at Fenway, including a three-game sweep there in late July.
Los Angeles is 37-15 in Saunders’ last 52 starts, 5-1 in his last six on the road and 5-0 when he’s faced teams from the A.L. East, and overall the Angels are on current streaks of 7-1 on the highway, 22-10 against the A.L. East and 4-0 on Sundays.
Boston has lost Beckett’s last five home starts, but overall Terry Francona’s team is 63-26 in its last 89 at Fenway, 21-6 in the playoffs and 7-1 in divisional playoff home games.
Saunders was a road warrior for Los Angeles, going 10-3 with a 2.55 ERA as the Angels won 11 of his 15 starts on the highway. He came on strong in September, going 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in five starts (all Angels wins), holding the opposition scoreless in his last two outings. Saunders beat the Red Sox three times this season, including twice at Fenway, allowing five runs in 12 innings of work. For his career, Saunders is 4-0 against Boston with a 2.89 ERA in 37 1/3 innings.
Beckett struggled with injuries this season but had a 2.70 ERA in his final three regular-season starts. This guy was untouchable during Boston’s October run last season, going 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 30 innings of work. For his postseason career, Beckett is 6-2 with a 1.65 ERA and has tossed three complete games, including a four-hitter against the Angels in last season’s divisional round, lead the Red Sox to a 4-0 win.
In six career regular-season starts against Los Angeles, Beckett is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA, but both losses came this year as he gave up 12 runs (11 earned) on 20 hits in 13 1/3 innings (7.43 ERA), including a 9-2 home loss back on July 30.
The under is on runs of 4-1 in Saunders’ last five on the hill, but as a team, the Angels are on over streaks of 6-2 overall, 7-3 following an off day and 4-1 against a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, Boston is riding a bunch of under streaks, including 4-1 at home, 6-0 on Sundays, 4-0 overall with Beckett on the mound and 4-1 when he faces teams from the A.L. West.
Finally, the over is 11-5-2 in the last 18 Angels-Red Sox battles in Boston, and the teams easily topped the total with Friday’s 12 runs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
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Indianapolis (1-2 SU and ATS) at Houston (0-3, 1-2 ATS)
The Colts, already three games behind in the win column in their division, travel to Reliant Stadium for an AFC South matchup against the Texans, who are finally playing their first home game following the destruction of Hurricane Ike.
Indianapolis, which had its bye last week, got beat by Jacksonville 23-21 Sept. 21 as a four-point home favorite, losing on Josh Scobee’s last-second, 51-yard field goal. QB Peyton Manning (15 of 29, 216 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) had a very subpar day, with one of his picks going 61 yards the other way for a Jags TD. Indy also had a huge time-of-possession deficit (41:35-18:25) and gave up 236 rushing yards.
Houston took that same Jacksonville team to overtime last week before falling 30-27 as a 6½-point road underdog, the first time the Texans have cashed this year. QB Matt Schaub was solid, going 29 of 40 for 307 yards and three TDs, with no turnovers. In fact, the contest was extremely even, Houston outgaining Jacksonville 386-375 and neither team committing a turnover.
Indianapolis has gone 9-1 SU (5-5 ATS) in the last 10 in this rivalry (all as a favorite), including winning both games last year, though Houston got the cash at home in a 30-24 loss catching 6½ points. The home team is on a 4-0 ATS run, and the Texans are 4-1 ATS in the last five series clashes at Reliant.
The Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last seven roadies, but they are mired in pointspread slides of 1-4 overall, 2-9 in division play, 1-4 after a SU loss and 3-7 against losing teams. The Texans are on a 9-4 ATS run as a home ‘dog in division play, and they’ve cashed in four straight at home, but they are on ATS slides of 2-5 in division play and 4-9 against the AFC.
The last six meetings in this rivalry have gone over the total, and the over is on further runs of 5-0 for Houston overall,16-5 for Houston inside the division and 5-2 for Indy against AFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Tennessee (4-0 SU and ATS) at Baltimore (2-1, 3-0 ATS)
The Titans aim to stay among the slim ranks of the unbeaten when they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Ravens, with two of the league’s top defenses on display.
Tennessee topped Minnesota 30-17 as a three-point home chalk to remain perfect on the season both SU and ATS. It was the most points the Titans have allowed this season, but the defense more than made up for it by forcing four turnovers – three fumble recoveries and an INT – and recording four sacks. Meanwhile, QB Kerry Collins (18 of 35, 199 yards) had a turnover-free day.
Baltimore forced Pittsburgh to overtime before falling 23-20 Monday night, but covered as a six-point road pup. QB Joe Flacco (16 of 31, 192 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a fairly clean game, but his lone mistake – a fumble – was returned for a TD that gave Pittsburgh the lead.
Tennessee has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), including a 27-26 home loss two years ago as a seven-point ‘dog. In fact, the underdog is on 13-3 ATS when these former division rivals square off.
The Titans are on a 4-8 ATS decline as a road chalk, but the pointspread trends turn positive from there, including 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 against AFC foes and 12-5 on the highway. The Ravens have cashed in four of their last five at M&T, but they are riding a 3-10 ATS freefall coming off a SU loss, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four Sunday games coming off a Monday night appearance.
The under for Tennessee is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road and 5-1 against the AFC, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in four of the last five meetings overall and five of the last seven in Baltimore. However, the Ravens are on “over” sprees of 8-2 overall and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
San Diego (2-2 SU and ATS) at Miami (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Chargers, getting back on track after an 0-2 start, make the cross-country trek to South Beach to take on the Dolphins.
San Diego erased a 15-0 halftime deficit en route to a 28-18 victory over Oakland, winning and cashing as a nine-point favorite for the second straight week. QB Philip Rivers (14 of 25, 180 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was sacked four times, but he got it together in the second half, aided by RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who finished with 106 yards and two TDs, including a late 41-yard jaunt to secure the spread-cover.
Miami took last week off after its shocking 38-13 road rout of New England on Sept. 21 as a 12½-point road underdog. QB Chad Pennington was almost flawless in that victory, going 17 of 20 for 226 yards to lead an offense that had no turnovers against the defending AFC champs. However, RB Ronnie Brown (17 carries, 113 yards) stole the show, running for four TDs and passing for another as the Fish racked up an astounding 461-215 advantage in total yards.
Miami has won and cashed in the last four meetings against San Diego, but the two teams haven’t met since 2005, when the Dolphins scored a 23-21 road upset catching 12½ points. The road team is on a 5-1 ATS streak in this rivalry.
The Chargers are on an 0-4 ATS slide as a non-division road favorite, but otherwise they are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 6-0-1 on the road, 9-1 after a SU win, 9-1 after a spread-cover and 23-9-1 against losing teams. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are in a 2-9 ATS freefall at home and carry further negative ATS streaks of 7-21-1 after a spread-cover and 9-19 after a SU win.
The over for San Diego is on runs of 4-0 this season, 13-3-2 on the road and 4-1 against AFC foes, and the total has gone high in six of Miami’s last eight outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Kansas City (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at Carolina (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS)
The Chiefs, finally free of their 12-game losing skid that dated to last season, travel to Charlotte for a non-conference clash with the Panthers.
Kansas City rode RB Larry Johnson to a 33-19 upset of Denver as a heavy 9½-point home underdog for its first win since last October. Johnson rolled up 198 yards and two TDs on 28 carries, complementing a mistake-free game from QB Damon Huard (21 of 28, 160 yards, 1 TD), and the Chiefs defense forced four turnovers.
Carolina dumped Atlanta 24-9 as a seven-point home chalk last Sunday. The Panthers outgained the Falcons by a healthy 401-268 margin, paced by a solid effort from QB Jake Delhomme (20 of 29, 294 yards, 2 TDs) in a turnover-free game for both teams. WR Muhsin Muhammad had eight catches for 147 yards and a TD.
These teams have met just twice this decade, with Carolina going 2-0 ATS (1-1 SU), most recently winning 28-17 as a seven-point road ‘dog in 2004.
Despite the Chiefs’ breakthrough last week and a 7-2 ATS mark in their last nine roadies, they still carry negative ATS streaks of 6-10-1 against the NFC, 2-5 against winning teams and 2-5-1 after a spread-cover. The Panthers are on positive pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 at home and 5-1-1 overall.
The under is 9-4 in Kansas City’s last 13 road games, and for Carolina, the under is on stretches of 5-2 overall, 20-8-1 at home and 6-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and UNDER
Washington (3-1 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (2-2, 3-1 ATS)
The surging Redskins head out on the road to face an NFC East rival for the second straight week, this time battling the Eagles, who are in need of a win to keep pace in the league’s strongest division.
Washington shocked Dallas 26-24 catching 10½ points on the road, winning and cashing for the third straight week after losing its season opener at the Giants. QB Jason Campbell (20 of 31, 231 yards, 2 TDs) still has not committed a turnover this season, and RB Clinton Portis (21 carries, 121 yards) helped the Redskins post a whopping 16-minute advantage in time of possession against the Cowboys.
Philadelphia struggled to put the ball in the end zone in a 24-20 loss at Chicago laying three points on Sunday night. QB Donovan McNabb (25 of 41, 262 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) led just two field-goal drives in the second half, along with a late-fourth-quarter drive that was stuffed on three straight attempts from inside the Bears’ 2-yard line.
Washington is 4-2-1 ATS (3-4 SU) in the last six meetings in this rivalry, and the road team won and covered in both clashes last year.
The Redskins are on ATS runs of 7-2 overall and 4-1 inside the division, but they are 5-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road contests. The Eagles sport positive ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 against the NFC, 7-2 after a SU loss and 10-4 against winning teams.
The under is 6-2-1 in the last nine clashes in this rivalry, and the under is also 9-4 in Washington’s last 13 games when coming off an ATS win and 4-0 in Philly’s last four at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Chicago (2-2, 2-1-1 ATS) at Detroit (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Lions, who finally rid themselves of team president Matt Millen during their bye week, hopes the move inspires them to their first victory of 2008 when they host the rival Bears at Ford Field.
Detroit got drummed 31-13 by San Francisco two weeks ago as a five-point road pup and fired Millen shortly thereafter, having lost 10 of their last 11 games SU and ATS dating to midseason last year. QB Jon Kitna (15 of 30, 146 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had another subpar effort, and his TD-to-INT ratio is now 5-5. The Lions were outgained 370-240 in San Francisco and had nearly 12 minutes less in time of possession.
Chicago earned a 24-20 victory over Philadelphia as a three-point home ‘dog Sunday night. QB Kyle Orton (18 of 34, 199 yards) had three TD passes, but he also had all four of the Bears’ turnovers on two INTs and two lost fumbles. He was bailed out by a defense that allowed just two field goals in the second half and made a late goal-line stand to clinch the win, stopping the Eagles on three straight plays from inside the 2-yard line.
Detroit has cashed in three straight games in this series, sweeping last year’s season series before the Lions’ current slump began. The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head clashes.
The Lions are on a 4-0 ATS run coming off a bye week, but they are on pointspread skids of 6-12-1 overall, 4-10 getting points and 3-6-1 in home divisional games. The Bears, meanwhile, are on positive ATS streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 6-2 on the highway and 4-1-1 against the NFC.
The over for Chicago is on tears of 21-6-1 against NFC foes, 12-4 against losing teams and 7-3-1 inside the division, and for Detroit, the over is on runs of 8-1 overall, 4-0 in NFC North tilts and 4-0 at home. Finally, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Atlanta (2-2 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Packers return home looking to halt a two-game skid when they face the Falcons at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay rallied to take a 21-20 fourth-quarter lead against Tampa Bay in Week 4, then gave up the last 10 points of the game in a 30-21 loss as a one-point road ‘dog. QB Aaron Rodgers (14 of 27, 165 yards) had a terrible day, offsetting two TD passes with his first three INTs of the year, and the Pack finished with a pathetic 181 total yards and a nearly 14-minute deficit in time of possession.
Atlanta lost to Carolina 24-9 getting seven points on the road and is now 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season but 0-2 SU and ATS on the road – and both road losses came by identical 24-9 final scores as a seven-point pup. Rookie QB Matt Ryan was unleashed a bit against the Panthers, throwing 41 passes, but he completed just 21 for 158 yards, with no TDs or INTs. The Falcons allowed 401 yards, while gaining just 268.
These two teams last met in the regular season in 2005, with Green Bay posting a 33-25 road win as a nine-point pup. The road team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, all in the underdog role.
Despite back-to-back SU and ATS defeats, the Packers are still on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 16-6-1 overall, 7-2-1 as a home chalk, 7-1-2 after a non-cover, 5-1-1 after a SU loss and 16-7-2 against the NFC. Meanwhile, the Falcons have failed to cover in four of their last five on the highway.
For Green Bay, the over is on runs of 20-8 overall, 6-1 at home and 14-3 in conference games, and the over for Atlanta is 9-2 in its last 11 overall and 7-2 in its last nine against NFC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Seattle (1-2 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl champion Giants aim to remain unbeaten when they return from their bye to face the Seahawks in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York barely held off Cincinnati two weeks ago, winning 26-23 in overtime as an overwhelming 13-point home favorite. QB Eli Manning (26 of 43, 289 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was steady in a clean turnover-free game by both teams.
Seattle was also off last week after rolling over St. Louis 37-13 as a nine-point home chalk two Sundays ago. QB Matt Hasselbeck (12 of 20, 172 yards, 1 TD) let the running game carry him, as the Seahawks rushed for 245 yards, paced by Julius Jones’ 140 yards and a TD on 22 carries. Seattle posted a 407-240 total yardage edge and a 10-minute advantage in time of possession.
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings with New York, most recently earning a 42-30 home win giving 3½ points in 2006.
The Giants are just 1-5-1 ATS coming off the bye the past seven years, but they are on several positive ATS runs, including 16-5 overall, 5-0 against the NFC and 6-1 after a SU win. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have a definite aversion to cross-country trips, though, with a 4-13 ATS mark in their last 17 contests in the Eastern time zone, including a season-opening loss at Buffalo. They carry further ATS slides of 0-4 in roadies, 7-13 as a road pup, 2-6 on the road against winning teams and 2-8 coming off the bye.
The over for New York is 6-2 in its last eight home contests, but the under is on runs of 11-3 after a bye and 6-2 against the NFC. For Seattle, the over is on tears of 6-0 overall, 5-0 against NFC foes, 8-1 after the bye week and 4-1 on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Tampa Bay (3-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
The Buccaneers aim to run their winning streak to four when they travel to Invesco Field at Mile High for a non-conference clash with the Broncos.
Tampa Bay overcame three second-half INTs from QB Brian Griese – with the last returned for a TD – to beat Green Bay 30-21 as a one-point home chalk in Week 4. Griese’s miscues turned a 20-7 lead into a 21-20 deficit, but he led a field-goal drive to put the Bucs back up, and RB Earnest Graham (20 carries, 111 yards) made his last two carries count – a 47-yarder, followed by a 1-yarder for a TD. It ended up being a close game despite Tampa’s 327-181 yardage edge and a nearly 13-minute bulge in time of possession.
Denver was dealt its first loss in surprising fashion, falling 33-19 to Kansas City as a 9½-point road favorite as the Chiefs snapped a 12-game losing streak. QB Jay Cutler (29 of 49, 361 yards, 1 TD) had a monster game, but he was playing from behind most of the day and also had a lost fumble to go with two picks as the Broncos lost the turnover battle 4-1. The suspect Denver defense also let RB Larry Johnson rumble for 198 yards and two TDs on 28 carries.
These two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Denver earned a 16-13 road, pushing as a three-point favorite.
The Bucs have failed to cash in nine of their last 10 road games against the AFC. And the Broncos are on a bevy of ATS slides, including 7-20-1 overall, 4-11-1 at Mile High, 2-9 at home against the NFC and 2-8 as a non-division home favorite.
The over has cashed in Denver’s first four games this season and is on further streaks for the Broncos of 20-5 overall, 12-2 at home and 7-2-1 against winning teams. Likewise, the over for Tampa is on stretches of 8-2 overall and 7-3 in roadies – including the last six in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at San Francisco (2-2 SU and ATS)
The Patriots, coming off one of their most stunning losses short of last season’s Super Bowl upset, look to right the ship when they return from their bye by making a West Coast trip to Monster Park to take on the 49ers.
New England got punched in the mouth by Miami two weeks ago in a 38-13 loss as a 12½-point home chalk. The Pats gained just 215 total yards – one yard less than the Dolphins had on the ground alone, as Miami finished with a whopping 461 total yards. New England also failed to force any turnovers, while committing two.
San Francisco had its two-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped in last week’s 31-17 loss at New Orleans as a four-point ‘dog. The Niners had a fair offensive day, with 312 total yards, but they got plowed over by the Saints’ high-octane offense, which finished with 467 yards, paced by QB Drew Brees’ 363 passing yards and three TDs.
New England and San Francisco have met just three times in the past 10 years, with the Pats going 3-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, New England earned a 21-7 home win in 2005 laying 13 points.
The Patriots have cashed just once in their last nine games, yet they still carry positive ATS trends into this game of 10-3-1 against the NFC, 8-3 coming off the bye, 14-4-1 after a SU loss and 14-5 on the highway. The 49ers are on a 4-1 ATS run hosting the AFC, but they are on ATS skids of 3-7 after a SU loss and 1-4 against winning teams.
The under is 4-1 in New England’s last five overall, 5-2-1 in San Francisco’s last eight overall and 5-1 in its last six at Monster Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Pittsburgh (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Jacksonville (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
The Steelers make their second straight prime-time appearance when they head south to nothern Florida to take on the Jaguars at Alltel Stadium in a rematch of last year’s exciting wild-card playoff battle.
Pittsburgh fended off Baltimore 23-20 in overtime, failing to cash as a six-point home chalk Monday night for its third consecutive non-cover. Neither offense was particularly proficient, with the Steelers getting slightly outgained 243-237 as Pittsburgh’s ailing backfield ran for just 69 yards. QB Ben Roethlisberger was a serviceable 14 of 24 for 191 yards with one TD and one INT.
Jacksonville also went to overtime last week, edging Houston 30-27 giving 6½ points at home. QB David Garrard was a typically efficient 23 of 32 for 236 yards and a TD in a very evenly played contest, as neither team committed a turnover and the Jags lost the total-yardage battle by a scant 11 yards, 386-375. For the second straight week, Josh Scobee kicked a game-winning field goal.
Jacksonville went to Pittsburgh last January and slugged out a 31-29 win as a 2½-point road favorite to knock the Steelers out of the playoffs. The Jaguars have won four straight against the Steelers and are on a 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Finally, the home team is on a 15-5 ATS tear in this rivalry, but the underdog has gotten the money in the last six.
The Steelers are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the highway (1-5 ATS) and are on further ATS slides of 4-9 overall, 1-4 after a SU win and 3-8 against the AFC. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have cashed just twice in their last seven outings, but they carry a 6-2 ATS mark in their last eight against winning teams.
The over for Pittsburgh is on stretches of 6-2 overall and 5-1 against the AFC, and for Jacksonville, the over is on streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 4-1-2 at home and 9-2-2 against the AFC. However, the under is 6-1 in the last seven Steelers-Jags clashes in Jacksonville.
ATS ADVANTAGE: JACKSONVILLE
N.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Philadelphia (2-1) at Milwaukee (1-2)
Having staved off elimination with a Game 3 victory Saturday, the Brewers once again face a must-win situation this afternoon when they send veteran Jeff Suppan (10-10, 4.96 ERA) to the mound at Miller Park, while the Phillies counter with Joe Blanton (4-0, 4.20).
J.J. Hardy went 3-for-4 and was one of four Brewers to drive in runs, and five Brewers pitchers kept Philadelphia in check en route to Saturday’s 4-1 victory, Milwaukee’s first postseason win since 1982. The Brewers, who snapped a seven-game losing streak to the Phillies with last night’s victory, have now won seven of their last eight home games and they’re 50-32 at Miller Park this season. However, they’re still mired in slumps of 4-13 against winning teams and 1-9 against N.L. East foes.
The Phillies, who got swept in last year’s divisional round and are looking to advance to their first N.L. Championship Series since 1993, are still on runs of 15-4 overall, 5-2 on the road, 8-1 against the N.L. Central, 13-4 versus winning teams, 20-8 against right-handed starters and 55-27 on Sundays.
Despite struggling against the Phillies this year (2-7), the Brewers have won nine of the last 11 meetings in Milwaukee. Also, the home team is 8-1 in the nine battles in 2008.
Suppan gave up one run on five eight hits in five innings in his final regular-season start on Sept. 26, pitching the Brewers to a critical 5-1 home win over the Cubs. Despite that effort, Suppan struggled mightily in September, going 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA in five starts, four of which Milwaukee lost. The veteran went 3-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 13 home starts this year.
Suppan is just 3-6 with a beefy 6.13 ERA in 12 career starts against the Phillies, including 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA in two outings this year. In fact, going back to his days with the Cardinals, Philadelphia is on a 7-0 run in games started by Suppan. Also, he’s 3-3 with a 3.00 ERA in nine career playoff starts.
Blanton started the season in Oakland, where he went 5-12 with a 4.96 ERA in 20 starts before being traded to Philadelphia, where he was unbeaten in four decisions, including going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his final three regular-season outings. The Phillies went 9-4 in Blanton’s 13 starts, including 3-3 on the road, where the burly right-hander wsa 5-3 with a 5.37 ERA overall this year (2-0, 4.96 ERA with Philadelphia).
Blanton’s lone career start against the Brewers was on Sept. 14 in Philadelphia, and he allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits in seven innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 7-3 victory. Finally, his postseason experience is limited to one relief appearance with the A’s in 2006, and he pitched two scoreless innings against the Tigers.
The under is 3-0 in the last four meetings between these teams (3-0 in this series) and is on further runs of 7-1 for the Brewers overall, 5-1 for the Brewers at home, 40-17-4 for the Brewers against the N.L. East, 8-3 for the Phillies overall, 5-1 for the Phillies on the road and 5-1 for the Phillies in the playoffs. Finally, the under is 7-0 in Suppan’s last seven starts against the N.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
A.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Tampa Bay (2-0) at Chicago White Sox (0-2)
The White Sox return to U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago looking to stave off elimination, and they’ll send southpaw John Danks (12-9, 3.32) to the hill against the Rays’ Matt Garza (11-9, 3.70) in Game 3 of this best-of-5 American League Divisional Series. It’s the first playoff start for both pitchers.
Tampa Bay took the first two games at home, winning 6-4 on Wednesday and 6-2 on Friday, when lefty Scott Kazmir got through a shaky first inning to get the win. The Rays have now won seven of the last eight matchups with the White Sox, including two of three in Chicago in late August. Tampa’s pitching has allowed just 13 runs in the last seven wins over the White Sox.
Tampa is 0-5 in Garza’s last five outings against A.L. Central squads, but they are on runs of 7-3 overall, 4-1 against teams with a winning record, 5-1 after a win and 9-3 following an off day. Meanwhile, Chicago is just 1-5 in Danks’ last six outings against the A.L. East and the White Sox are just 3-7 in their last 10 overall, but they are on positive runs of 42-18 at home, 8-2 in playoff games, 5-1 in home playoff contests and 39-14 at home against teams with a losing road record.
The Rays have struggled with Garza on the hill lately, losing five of his final seven regular-season starts, including a 4-3 road loss in Detroit eight days ago when he allowed three runs in five innings. Garza was 4-6 with a 4.53 ERA on the road, and the Rays won just five of his 15 starts on the highway. Finally, he is 1-1 with a 4.97 ERA in three career starts against Chicago in just 12 2/3 innings of work, but hasn’t faced them since he was in the Twins’ rotation last September.
Danks was magnificent for the White Sox in their one-game playoff to decide the A.L. Central champ on Tuesday, blanking the Twins on two hits for eight innings of the 1-0 victory. He’s shutout the opposition in three of his last four starts but those are the only three wins Chicago has in his last eight appearances.
Danks faced the Rays three times this season, dominating them twice in Tampa and allowing three runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 9-4 home loss in August. For his career, Danks is 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in 24 1/3 innings against the Rays.
The under is 5-2 in Garza’s last seven roadies, but otherwise the Rays are on over runs of 5-1 on the road, 6-2 overall, 11-4 against A.L. Central squads and 7-2 on Sundays. The under is 7-3 in Danks’ last 10 home starts, 12-4 when he faces a team with a winning record and 22-8-2 in Chicago’s last 32 against the A.L. East, but the over is 6-2 in their last eight playoff games and 8-3 in their last 11 following an off day.
Finally, the under is 13-4 in the last 17 series meetings between these clubs, including Friday’s game that barely stayed under the 8½ total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO WHITE SOX
L.A. Angels (0-2) at Boston (2-0)
The Red Sox will try to make it 12 straight playoff wins over the Angels and finish a sweep of the team with the best record in baseball when they send Josh Beckett (12-10, 4.03) to the mound at Fenway Park opposite Los Angeles lefty Joe Saunders (17-7, 3.41).
Boston got a dramatic 7-5 win Friday in Anaheim when J.D. Drew drove a Frankie Rodriguez pitch into the seats in the ninth inning for a two-run homer after the Angels had tied the game in the bottom of the eighth. Los Angeles won eight of nine against Boston in the regular season, but the Red Sox continue to dominate the postseason, winning 11 straight against the Halos, including divisional sweeps in 2004 and 2007.
The Angels have won five straight at Fenway, including a three-game sweep there in late July.
Los Angeles is 37-15 in Saunders’ last 52 starts, 5-1 in his last six on the road and 5-0 when he’s faced teams from the A.L. East, and overall the Angels are on current streaks of 7-1 on the highway, 22-10 against the A.L. East and 4-0 on Sundays.
Boston has lost Beckett’s last five home starts, but overall Terry Francona’s team is 63-26 in its last 89 at Fenway, 21-6 in the playoffs and 7-1 in divisional playoff home games.
Saunders was a road warrior for Los Angeles, going 10-3 with a 2.55 ERA as the Angels won 11 of his 15 starts on the highway. He came on strong in September, going 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA in five starts (all Angels wins), holding the opposition scoreless in his last two outings. Saunders beat the Red Sox three times this season, including twice at Fenway, allowing five runs in 12 innings of work. For his career, Saunders is 4-0 against Boston with a 2.89 ERA in 37 1/3 innings.
Beckett struggled with injuries this season but had a 2.70 ERA in his final three regular-season starts. This guy was untouchable during Boston’s October run last season, going 4-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 30 innings of work. For his postseason career, Beckett is 6-2 with a 1.65 ERA and has tossed three complete games, including a four-hitter against the Angels in last season’s divisional round, lead the Red Sox to a 4-0 win.
In six career regular-season starts against Los Angeles, Beckett is 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA, but both losses came this year as he gave up 12 runs (11 earned) on 20 hits in 13 1/3 innings (7.43 ERA), including a 9-2 home loss back on July 30.
The under is on runs of 4-1 in Saunders’ last five on the hill, but as a team, the Angels are on over streaks of 6-2 overall, 7-3 following an off day and 4-1 against a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, Boston is riding a bunch of under streaks, including 4-1 at home, 6-0 on Sundays, 4-0 overall with Beckett on the mound and 4-1 when he faces teams from the A.L. West.
Finally, the over is 11-5-2 in the last 18 Angels-Red Sox battles in Boston, and the teams easily topped the total with Friday’s 12 runs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
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