Sportsbook Breakers
Newsletter Side
4 STAR Denver +6.5 over TENNESSEE – Denver is a team that can move the ball well through the air, way better than expected coming into the season. That along with a solid run defense in the top 10 in both rushing yards allowed and yards per carry allowed. Denver has been moving the ball through the air well, particularly last week when Kyle Orton threw 57 times for 476 yards. The Broncos are 6-0-1 ATS (10.5 ppg) since October 08, 2000 on the road the week after in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average (team=Broncos and A and tA(passes)+10<=passes and 20001008<=date). As such, their rushing game has gone down each week, culminating in just 47 yards last week. The Broncos are 8-0-2 ATS (8.8 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks (team=Broncos and D and p:RY<pp:RY<ppp:RY and NB and p:NB and 19921018<=date)Denver has rarely been a dog in the rarefied air at home such as they were last week. It’s only happened 17 times in database history and when they are a dog again next week, Denver plays well. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since December 13, 1992 as a dog after playing at home as a dog (team=Broncos and D and p:HD and 19921213<=date). This was active three times just last season. Tennessee did not face a good passing team until last week and there was some cause for concern as Eli Manning threw for 386 yards. The Titans are 0-6 ATS (-22.6 ppg) since December 28, 2008 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing (team=Titans and 300<=po
Y and NB and 20081228<=date). The way Denver’s been passing the ball, they have not had to punt often - just 11 times in the first three games. The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-22.1 ppg) since November 23, 2008 when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date (team=Titans and HF and n:A and nn:A and n:NB and nn:NB and 20040926<=date). After this contest, Tennessee will be on the road for two straight games and four of the last five. The Titans are 0-8 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since September 26, 2004 as a home favorite when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks (team=Titans and HF and n:A and nn:A and n:NB and nn:NB and 20040926<=date).Despite their 1-2 record, Denver’s outgained opponents by 83 yards per game. They’re a solid team which should give Tennessee a run here. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 21, Denver 20
Top Total
4 STAR Baltimore and Pittsburgh over 34.5 – Despite what you might expect, these teams have gone over in their meeting past six meetings in Pittsburgh. Sure their defenses are good, but both teams have a good defense every season yet this game constantly goes over. Look for it to happen again here.
Pittsburgh often will play to low totals and generally responds offensively in these games. The Steelers are 16-4 OU (8.2 ppg) since January 2005 at home with a total under 38 (team=Steelers and date>=20050101 and total<=37.5 and H). Their offense alone averages 25.9 points in these games.
The total in their game last week was just 33 and Pittsburgh outscored that alone in a 38-13 win over Tampa Bay. The Steelers are 8-0 OU (13.7 ppg) since October 29, 2001 when they covered by a TD+ in their last game, which had a total no greater than 34 (p:ats margin>=7 and p:total<=34 and team=Steelers and 20011029<=date).
After playing conservatively the first two weeks, their offense exploded for 387 total yards in that game. The Steelers are 8-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since December 13, 1997 within 3 of pick the week after as a favorite in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average.
Now Baltimore is a strong defense, allowing on 244 yards per game so far, but Pittsburgh responds well to these strong defensive teams. The Steelers are 6-0 OU (11.2 ppg) since October 15, 2006 at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date (team=Steelers and H and oA(o:TY)<275 and 20061015<=date).
This is the last week of a three week divisional stretch for Baltimore and they won’t play another divisional foe until week 13. The Ravens are 7-0 OU (15.4 ppg) since October 06, 2002 as a dog vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, this is the first divisional matchup for the Steelers this year and a game they’ll be up for. The Steelers are 10-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since September 07, 2003 at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.
Baltimore’s defense is good, but they looked slightly vulnerable against a Cleveland squad last week with a far inferior offensive attack.
PITTSBURGH 24, Baltimore 17
Newsletter Side
4 STAR Denver +6.5 over TENNESSEE – Denver is a team that can move the ball well through the air, way better than expected coming into the season. That along with a solid run defense in the top 10 in both rushing yards allowed and yards per carry allowed. Denver has been moving the ball through the air well, particularly last week when Kyle Orton threw 57 times for 476 yards. The Broncos are 6-0-1 ATS (10.5 ppg) since October 08, 2000 on the road the week after in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average (team=Broncos and A and tA(passes)+10<=passes and 20001008<=date). As such, their rushing game has gone down each week, culminating in just 47 yards last week. The Broncos are 8-0-2 ATS (8.8 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks (team=Broncos and D and p:RY<pp:RY<ppp:RY and NB and p:NB and 19921018<=date)Denver has rarely been a dog in the rarefied air at home such as they were last week. It’s only happened 17 times in database history and when they are a dog again next week, Denver plays well. The Broncos are 6-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since December 13, 1992 as a dog after playing at home as a dog (team=Broncos and D and p:HD and 19921213<=date). This was active three times just last season. Tennessee did not face a good passing team until last week and there was some cause for concern as Eli Manning threw for 386 yards. The Titans are 0-6 ATS (-22.6 ppg) since December 28, 2008 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing (team=Titans and 300<=po
Y and NB and 20081228<=date). The way Denver’s been passing the ball, they have not had to punt often - just 11 times in the first three games. The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-22.1 ppg) since November 23, 2008 when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date (team=Titans and HF and n:A and nn:A and n:NB and nn:NB and 20040926<=date). After this contest, Tennessee will be on the road for two straight games and four of the last five. The Titans are 0-8 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since September 26, 2004 as a home favorite when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks (team=Titans and HF and n:A and nn:A and n:NB and nn:NB and 20040926<=date).Despite their 1-2 record, Denver’s outgained opponents by 83 yards per game. They’re a solid team which should give Tennessee a run here. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: TENNESSEE 21, Denver 20Top Total
4 STAR Baltimore and Pittsburgh over 34.5 – Despite what you might expect, these teams have gone over in their meeting past six meetings in Pittsburgh. Sure their defenses are good, but both teams have a good defense every season yet this game constantly goes over. Look for it to happen again here.
Pittsburgh often will play to low totals and generally responds offensively in these games. The Steelers are 16-4 OU (8.2 ppg) since January 2005 at home with a total under 38 (team=Steelers and date>=20050101 and total<=37.5 and H). Their offense alone averages 25.9 points in these games.
The total in their game last week was just 33 and Pittsburgh outscored that alone in a 38-13 win over Tampa Bay. The Steelers are 8-0 OU (13.7 ppg) since October 29, 2001 when they covered by a TD+ in their last game, which had a total no greater than 34 (p:ats margin>=7 and p:total<=34 and team=Steelers and 20011029<=date).
After playing conservatively the first two weeks, their offense exploded for 387 total yards in that game. The Steelers are 8-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since December 13, 1997 within 3 of pick the week after as a favorite in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average.
Now Baltimore is a strong defense, allowing on 244 yards per game so far, but Pittsburgh responds well to these strong defensive teams. The Steelers are 6-0 OU (11.2 ppg) since October 15, 2006 at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date (team=Steelers and H and oA(o:TY)<275 and 20061015<=date).
This is the last week of a three week divisional stretch for Baltimore and they won’t play another divisional foe until week 13. The Ravens are 7-0 OU (15.4 ppg) since October 06, 2002 as a dog vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, this is the first divisional matchup for the Steelers this year and a game they’ll be up for. The Steelers are 10-0 OU (9.1 ppg) since September 07, 2003 at home when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season.
Baltimore’s defense is good, but they looked slightly vulnerable against a Cleveland squad last week with a far inferior offensive attack.
PITTSBURGH 24, Baltimore 17
MTI
Newsletter Side Play
-4 Star Washington + over PHILADELPHIA – The responsibility for the Redskins’ embarrassing loss to the Rams last week can be placed on the offense. They gave the ball to the Rams on their own three-yard line after a fumble by Santana Moss, they couldn’t get in the end zone from inside their opponent’s ten-yard line twice and they converted only one of ten first downs. The defense stopped the Rams on four trips inside their red zone and stuffed the Rams three straight plays on a first and goal at their one-yard line and then blocked the field goal attempt. Their offense was flat and only had 25:10 of possession time. Apparently the Redskins were looking ahead to this one, as we can find no other excuse for their poor play. We expect much better things from Shanahan’s squad this week.
The Redskins are 7-0 ATS (+10.0 ppg) as a dog when they allowed more points than they were supposed to in each of their last two games. Washington won six of the seven straight up, with their only SU loss coming by a 28-23 score as a double-digit dog in Dallas.
Also, Washington is 7-0 ATS (+9.0 ppg) as a Sunday road dog vs a divisional opponent and 11-0 ATS as a dog vs a team with more wins the week after a road loss in which they scored fewer than 20 points. The SDQL text is:
team=Redskins and D and o:wins>wins and p:AL and NB and points<20 and 20011021<=date
The Eagles have looked good behind Mike Vick, but he has only played the Lions and the Jaguars. Last week, Jacksonville allowed a lot of big plays and their offense had trouble sustaining drives. The Jaguars punted eight times and the only time they got into the Eagles’ red zone was in the fourth quarter after a long defensive pass interference penalty. That drive stalled on the Philadelphia 18-yard line when they turned it over on Downs. This is relevant because the Eagles are 0-9 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since 2005 at home when they never had to defend a first-and-goal last week. Also, Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS (-12.9 ppg) as a home favorite after a win they stopped their opponent on at least ten third down attempts.
The main impetus for this play, however, is the fact that NFL teams with a winning record of better than 200 are 32-0-1 ATS since the start of the 2006 season the week after a road game in which they stopped their opponent on at least three red zone attempts and at least one goal-to-goal attempt, as long as they weren’t a 13+ point dog this game or the previous game and it is not the last week of the season. The Redskins qualify for this play-on system that was 6-0 ATS in 2008 and 5-0 ATS last season. Grab the points.
Washington 20 PHILADELPHIA 17
Totals Play
-5 Star Arizona at San Diego OVER 46 -- The Cardinals played a sloppy game last week against the Raiders, committing 104 yards of penalties. The main reason that they were able to win is that they were 2-of-2 inside the red zone and the Raiders were 1-of-5. If the Raiders can put 23 points on the board vs the Cardinals, the Chargers should be able to exceed this number significantly.
NFL teams are a combined 24-0 OU as a regular season dog when they committed 98+ yards of penalties the previous week, as long as they were not a dog of more than a field goal in that game. This OU system has an average winning margin of 12.7 ppg and is already 2-0 this season. The Cardinals, of course, are the qualifying team here.
The Chargers have thrown the ball an average of 40.3 times per game this season and the Cardinals have a strong OVER tendency as a significant underdog vs passing a team. Arizona is 19-0 OU as a road dog of more than three points vs a team that has averaged at least 33 passes per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
team=Cardinals and A and oA(passes)>33 and line>3 and season>=2002
This system makes sense, in order to win as a significant road dog, the Cardinals can’t play conservatively. They can’t afford to waste a single possession. They have to push the ball down the field aggressively on every drive. This leads to high scoring games.
In addition, Arizona is 7-0 OU (+13.1 ppg) as a dog when they won by 1-3 points last week against a non-divisional opponent, 7-0 OU (+12.0 ppg) as a dog when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date and 7-0 OU (+9.4 ppg) when they are off a game in which their opponent had at least five separate trips inside their red zone and failed on at least three of them.
Turning our attention to the Chargers, we find that they are in a scheduling spot in which they have flown over the total. San Diego has a game in Oakland next, and they are 8-0 OU as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before visiting a divisional opponent, flying over by an average of 16.6 ppg. Also, San Diego is 8-0 OU as a favorite the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road, going over by an average of 14.7 ppg and 7-0 OU (+10.6 ppg) as a favorite after a road game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.
San Diego doesn’t want to play defense and the Cardinals can’t. We look for an offensive shoot out here. Take the OVER.
SAN DIEGO 37 Arizona 34
Newsletter Side Play
-4 Star Washington + over PHILADELPHIA – The responsibility for the Redskins’ embarrassing loss to the Rams last week can be placed on the offense. They gave the ball to the Rams on their own three-yard line after a fumble by Santana Moss, they couldn’t get in the end zone from inside their opponent’s ten-yard line twice and they converted only one of ten first downs. The defense stopped the Rams on four trips inside their red zone and stuffed the Rams three straight plays on a first and goal at their one-yard line and then blocked the field goal attempt. Their offense was flat and only had 25:10 of possession time. Apparently the Redskins were looking ahead to this one, as we can find no other excuse for their poor play. We expect much better things from Shanahan’s squad this week.
The Redskins are 7-0 ATS (+10.0 ppg) as a dog when they allowed more points than they were supposed to in each of their last two games. Washington won six of the seven straight up, with their only SU loss coming by a 28-23 score as a double-digit dog in Dallas.
Also, Washington is 7-0 ATS (+9.0 ppg) as a Sunday road dog vs a divisional opponent and 11-0 ATS as a dog vs a team with more wins the week after a road loss in which they scored fewer than 20 points. The SDQL text is:
team=Redskins and D and o:wins>wins and p:AL and NB and points<20 and 20011021<=date
The Eagles have looked good behind Mike Vick, but he has only played the Lions and the Jaguars. Last week, Jacksonville allowed a lot of big plays and their offense had trouble sustaining drives. The Jaguars punted eight times and the only time they got into the Eagles’ red zone was in the fourth quarter after a long defensive pass interference penalty. That drive stalled on the Philadelphia 18-yard line when they turned it over on Downs. This is relevant because the Eagles are 0-9 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since 2005 at home when they never had to defend a first-and-goal last week. Also, Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS (-12.9 ppg) as a home favorite after a win they stopped their opponent on at least ten third down attempts.
The main impetus for this play, however, is the fact that NFL teams with a winning record of better than 200 are 32-0-1 ATS since the start of the 2006 season the week after a road game in which they stopped their opponent on at least three red zone attempts and at least one goal-to-goal attempt, as long as they weren’t a 13+ point dog this game or the previous game and it is not the last week of the season. The Redskins qualify for this play-on system that was 6-0 ATS in 2008 and 5-0 ATS last season. Grab the points.
Washington 20 PHILADELPHIA 17
Totals Play
-5 Star Arizona at San Diego OVER 46 -- The Cardinals played a sloppy game last week against the Raiders, committing 104 yards of penalties. The main reason that they were able to win is that they were 2-of-2 inside the red zone and the Raiders were 1-of-5. If the Raiders can put 23 points on the board vs the Cardinals, the Chargers should be able to exceed this number significantly.
NFL teams are a combined 24-0 OU as a regular season dog when they committed 98+ yards of penalties the previous week, as long as they were not a dog of more than a field goal in that game. This OU system has an average winning margin of 12.7 ppg and is already 2-0 this season. The Cardinals, of course, are the qualifying team here.
The Chargers have thrown the ball an average of 40.3 times per game this season and the Cardinals have a strong OVER tendency as a significant underdog vs passing a team. Arizona is 19-0 OU as a road dog of more than three points vs a team that has averaged at least 33 passes per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
team=Cardinals and A and oA(passes)>33 and line>3 and season>=2002
This system makes sense, in order to win as a significant road dog, the Cardinals can’t play conservatively. They can’t afford to waste a single possession. They have to push the ball down the field aggressively on every drive. This leads to high scoring games.
In addition, Arizona is 7-0 OU (+13.1 ppg) as a dog when they won by 1-3 points last week against a non-divisional opponent, 7-0 OU (+12.0 ppg) as a dog when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date and 7-0 OU (+9.4 ppg) when they are off a game in which their opponent had at least five separate trips inside their red zone and failed on at least three of them.
Turning our attention to the Chargers, we find that they are in a scheduling spot in which they have flown over the total. San Diego has a game in Oakland next, and they are 8-0 OU as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before visiting a divisional opponent, flying over by an average of 16.6 ppg. Also, San Diego is 8-0 OU as a favorite the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road, going over by an average of 14.7 ppg and 7-0 OU (+10.6 ppg) as a favorite after a road game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.
San Diego doesn’t want to play defense and the Cardinals can’t. We look for an offensive shoot out here. Take the OVER.
SAN DIEGO 37 Arizona 34
MEAN GREEN
NFL: (1PM) Browns - Bengals // MONEY LINE: CINNCY
NFL: (1PM) Packers - Lions // SPREAD: GB -14
NFL: (1PM) Saints - Panthers // SPREAD: NO -12.5
NFL: (1PM) Falcons - 49ers // SPREAD: ATL -6.5
NFL: (1PM) Jets - Bills // MONEY LINE: NYJ
NFL: (1PM) Colts - Jaguars // MONEY LINE: INDY
NFL: (1PM) Ravens - Steelers // TOTAL: UNDER 34.5
NFL: (1PM) 49ers - Falcons // TOTAL: UNDER 42.5
NFL: (4PM) Eagles - Redskins // TOTAL: OVER 43
NFL: (1PM) Bills - Jets // TOTAL: UNDER 36.5
NFL: (1PM) Browns - Bengals // MONEY LINE: CINNCY
NFL: (1PM) Packers - Lions // SPREAD: GB -14
NFL: (1PM) Saints - Panthers // SPREAD: NO -12.5
NFL: (1PM) Falcons - 49ers // SPREAD: ATL -6.5
NFL: (1PM) Jets - Bills // MONEY LINE: NYJ
NFL: (1PM) Colts - Jaguars // MONEY LINE: INDY
NFL: (1PM) Ravens - Steelers // TOTAL: UNDER 34.5
NFL: (1PM) 49ers - Falcons // TOTAL: UNDER 42.5
NFL: (4PM) Eagles - Redskins // TOTAL: OVER 43
NFL: (1PM) Bills - Jets // TOTAL: UNDER 36.5
John Ryan
Game: Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders Oct 3 2010 4:05PM
Prediction: Oakland Raiders
Reason: 25* graded play on the Raiders as they take on Houston set to start at 4:05 EST. The Raiders offense has come to life and they are moving the ball with great proficiency between the 20 yard lines. Problem has been that there are just two teams worse in red zone execution this season. Penalties have been a problem as well and again those in the red zone have negated strong scoring opportunities. Penalties is certainly something the coaching staff has addressed publicly and Oakland will play with renewed discipline this week. The Oakland defense has been extremely good holding both the Rams and Arizona to season low offensive totals. One of the dominant reasons why has been the superb play of Nnamdi Asomugha, who held Arizona Cardinal Fitzgerald to one reception. Houston’s Andre Johnson will have a long day matched up against him and it diminishes the options for the Houston offense. Houston is just 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in road games after playing a game at home since 1992; 1-12 ATS when they have a 500 or higher winning percentage taking on an opponent off a straight up loss. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent shot at winning this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-6 making 21.1 units since 2000. Play against road teams versus the money line off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’ in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing between 23-27 points per game. Here is a second system that has gone 45-13 against the Money Line for 78% winners since 2000. Play on home teams facing the money line that are good rushing teams gaining >=4.5 yards per rush facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing <=3.5 yards per rush. Houston is just 2-12 against the money line (-11.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992. Oakland is a solid 6-1 against the money line (+8.3 Units) after allowing 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Oakland is the play.
Game: Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders Oct 3 2010 4:05PM
Prediction: Oakland Raiders
Reason: 25* graded play on the Raiders as they take on Houston set to start at 4:05 EST. The Raiders offense has come to life and they are moving the ball with great proficiency between the 20 yard lines. Problem has been that there are just two teams worse in red zone execution this season. Penalties have been a problem as well and again those in the red zone have negated strong scoring opportunities. Penalties is certainly something the coaching staff has addressed publicly and Oakland will play with renewed discipline this week. The Oakland defense has been extremely good holding both the Rams and Arizona to season low offensive totals. One of the dominant reasons why has been the superb play of Nnamdi Asomugha, who held Arizona Cardinal Fitzgerald to one reception. Houston’s Andre Johnson will have a long day matched up against him and it diminishes the options for the Houston offense. Houston is just 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in road games after playing a game at home since 1992; 1-12 ATS when they have a 500 or higher winning percentage taking on an opponent off a straight up loss. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Oakland will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent shot at winning this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-6 making 21.1 units since 2000. Play against road teams versus the money line off 1 or more consecutive ‘unders’ in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing between 23-27 points per game. Here is a second system that has gone 45-13 against the Money Line for 78% winners since 2000. Play on home teams facing the money line that are good rushing teams gaining >=4.5 yards per rush facing a team with a good rushing defense allowing <=3.5 yards per rush. Houston is just 2-12 against the money line (-11.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992. Oakland is a solid 6-1 against the money line (+8.3 Units) after allowing 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Oakland is the play.
