NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***NY JETS (-3 +100) 25 Buffalo 14
Sun Oct-26-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 262 Over/Under 40.5
With their 17-16 home win last week the Bills are now 4-3 on the season, just a game behind division leading New England. They are a bit overvalued right now and will be put to the test this week as they take to the road to face a Jets team that is coming off of a tough 25-27 loss to the Patriots last Thursday night. In that game, the Jets outplayed New England but just had to keep settling for field goals in the red zone and that was essentially the difference. New York held a 423 at 5.4 to 323 at 6.1 yardage advantage and dominated the Patriots on the ground (218 rushing yards for the Jets to 68 for the Patriots). With the extra time to prepare and regroup the Jets appear to be focused and have had good practices this week in preparation for the Bills.
On the other side, coming off a last second Kyle Orton touchdown pass to beat the Vikings last week and then looking forward to their bye and a break next week, I expect the Bills may not have their A game in this one. The Jets know that they are past the most difficult part of their schedule after facing teams with a combined record of 28-13 the past six weeks and if they have any sort of a chance to do anything this season they need to do it now as the combined record of the teams that they face over the next seven weeks is 22-25. Doing anything this season comes down to playing well here and the Jets know it. The time off has helped New York to heal up a bit and the addition of WR Percy Harvin certainly won’t hurt. Meanwhile, Buffalo will be missing top RB’s Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. The Jets qualify in a 148-94-6 situation and coupled with what appears to be a good spot, I’ll take the Jets -3 +100 for 3-stars up to -3 -120 and for 2-stars at up to -3 -130 .
***KANSAS CITY (-7) 32 St. Louis 16
Sun Oct-26-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 258 Over/Under 43.5
The Rams are coming off of an emotional high as they held off the Super Bowl champion Seahawks last week at home in a big divisional contest, 28-26. While they controlled the game early, they were outgained by nearly 200 yards (463 at 6.8 yppl for Seattle to 274 at 5.8 yppl for the Rams) but came away with a controversial win. They’ll take to the road to face a Chiefs team that played well last week coming off their bye in a 23-20 win at San Diego. Outside of their season opening head scratching loss to the Titans, Kansas City has played well and have gotten progressively better. They have a pretty good match-up this week against a Rams team that doesn’t defend the run or the pass particularly well but have shown some spark on offense with Austin Davis at the helm. He’ll be challenged this week against a Chiefs defense that has taken some time to gel after getting hit with a number of injuries in their front seven early on, but has performed better recently. Kansas City should be able to move the ball well both on the ground and in the air in this game while I expect the Rams will have problems passing the ball against a Chiefs team that is allowing just 209 passing yards at 6.1 yps against teams that allow 246 yards at 6.8 yps. In addition, with a solid stable of running backs the Chiefs should be able to pound away at a Rams rush defense that has allowed 146 yards rushing per game at 5.0 ypr.
Kansas City qualifies in good 124-64-6 and 101-55-4 situations and my main model favors them by about 8 points in this game. My adjusted points model favors Kansas City by 16.3 points. The Chiefs are an improving team that are rested after their bye two weeks ago while the Rams may be a bit flat coming off two divisional games and now facing a non-conference team on the road before facing divisional foes San Francisco and Arizona the next two weeks. I’ll take the Chiefs -7 for 3-stars up to -8 and for 2-stars up to -9.5.
**TAMPA BAY (-2.5) 25 Minnesota 15
Sun Oct-26-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 254 Over/Under 42.5
The Bucs are in a good spot coming off their bye and a 17-48 beating at home against the Ravens. They have had time to get healthier, reflect and make corrections and I expect a strong performance from them in this game. Similar to the meltdown they had against the Falcons in Week 3 (a 14-56 loss), after which they came back with a SU win as a 7.5 point dog against the Steelers, I expect a similar rebound in this game. They face a foe in Minnesota that while improving, remain a work in progress. Last week in Buffalo the Vikings were outplayed but controlled the scoreboard as a result essentially of randomness as the Bills fumbled three times and lost all three. Overall the Vikings were +2 in turnovers in that game and lost 16-17. On the season, Minnesota’s passing offense has been dreadful, passing for just 182 yards per game at 5.0 yps against teams that allow 238 yards at 6.6 yps. While quarterback Teddy Bridgewater came out of the gates firing and played fairly well against the Saints and the Falcons he has thrown for just one touchdown while being intercepted five times in the last two games as teams have had some time to look at tape and figure out what his weaknesses are. The Vikings offensive line has also done a terrible job protecting their quarterbacks this season, allowing an average of 4.0 sacks per game against teams that only generate 2.1 per game.
This is a great spot for the Bucs and there is a small sample 8-0 situation that applies to them here. While the Bucs have been home for three weeks and are rested, Minnesota has spent three of their past four games on the road and could be a tired team after a last second loss in Buffalo last week. Tampa Bay has talent on both sides of the ball and will be prepared to best utilize it in this game. Bucs defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has been the head coach/defensive coordinator of the Vikings for the past 7 years before coming to Tampa this season and should have some unique insights into how to best exploit the weaknesses of many of the players he coached. I’ll take the Bucs -2.5 for 2-stars up to -3
***NY JETS (-3 +100) 25 Buffalo 14
Sun Oct-26-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 262 Over/Under 40.5
With their 17-16 home win last week the Bills are now 4-3 on the season, just a game behind division leading New England. They are a bit overvalued right now and will be put to the test this week as they take to the road to face a Jets team that is coming off of a tough 25-27 loss to the Patriots last Thursday night. In that game, the Jets outplayed New England but just had to keep settling for field goals in the red zone and that was essentially the difference. New York held a 423 at 5.4 to 323 at 6.1 yardage advantage and dominated the Patriots on the ground (218 rushing yards for the Jets to 68 for the Patriots). With the extra time to prepare and regroup the Jets appear to be focused and have had good practices this week in preparation for the Bills.
On the other side, coming off a last second Kyle Orton touchdown pass to beat the Vikings last week and then looking forward to their bye and a break next week, I expect the Bills may not have their A game in this one. The Jets know that they are past the most difficult part of their schedule after facing teams with a combined record of 28-13 the past six weeks and if they have any sort of a chance to do anything this season they need to do it now as the combined record of the teams that they face over the next seven weeks is 22-25. Doing anything this season comes down to playing well here and the Jets know it. The time off has helped New York to heal up a bit and the addition of WR Percy Harvin certainly won’t hurt. Meanwhile, Buffalo will be missing top RB’s Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. The Jets qualify in a 148-94-6 situation and coupled with what appears to be a good spot, I’ll take the Jets -3 +100 for 3-stars up to -3 -120 and for 2-stars at up to -3 -130 .
***KANSAS CITY (-7) 32 St. Louis 16
Sun Oct-26-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 258 Over/Under 43.5
The Rams are coming off of an emotional high as they held off the Super Bowl champion Seahawks last week at home in a big divisional contest, 28-26. While they controlled the game early, they were outgained by nearly 200 yards (463 at 6.8 yppl for Seattle to 274 at 5.8 yppl for the Rams) but came away with a controversial win. They’ll take to the road to face a Chiefs team that played well last week coming off their bye in a 23-20 win at San Diego. Outside of their season opening head scratching loss to the Titans, Kansas City has played well and have gotten progressively better. They have a pretty good match-up this week against a Rams team that doesn’t defend the run or the pass particularly well but have shown some spark on offense with Austin Davis at the helm. He’ll be challenged this week against a Chiefs defense that has taken some time to gel after getting hit with a number of injuries in their front seven early on, but has performed better recently. Kansas City should be able to move the ball well both on the ground and in the air in this game while I expect the Rams will have problems passing the ball against a Chiefs team that is allowing just 209 passing yards at 6.1 yps against teams that allow 246 yards at 6.8 yps. In addition, with a solid stable of running backs the Chiefs should be able to pound away at a Rams rush defense that has allowed 146 yards rushing per game at 5.0 ypr.
Kansas City qualifies in good 124-64-6 and 101-55-4 situations and my main model favors them by about 8 points in this game. My adjusted points model favors Kansas City by 16.3 points. The Chiefs are an improving team that are rested after their bye two weeks ago while the Rams may be a bit flat coming off two divisional games and now facing a non-conference team on the road before facing divisional foes San Francisco and Arizona the next two weeks. I’ll take the Chiefs -7 for 3-stars up to -8 and for 2-stars up to -9.5.
**TAMPA BAY (-2.5) 25 Minnesota 15
Sun Oct-26-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 254 Over/Under 42.5
The Bucs are in a good spot coming off their bye and a 17-48 beating at home against the Ravens. They have had time to get healthier, reflect and make corrections and I expect a strong performance from them in this game. Similar to the meltdown they had against the Falcons in Week 3 (a 14-56 loss), after which they came back with a SU win as a 7.5 point dog against the Steelers, I expect a similar rebound in this game. They face a foe in Minnesota that while improving, remain a work in progress. Last week in Buffalo the Vikings were outplayed but controlled the scoreboard as a result essentially of randomness as the Bills fumbled three times and lost all three. Overall the Vikings were +2 in turnovers in that game and lost 16-17. On the season, Minnesota’s passing offense has been dreadful, passing for just 182 yards per game at 5.0 yps against teams that allow 238 yards at 6.6 yps. While quarterback Teddy Bridgewater came out of the gates firing and played fairly well against the Saints and the Falcons he has thrown for just one touchdown while being intercepted five times in the last two games as teams have had some time to look at tape and figure out what his weaknesses are. The Vikings offensive line has also done a terrible job protecting their quarterbacks this season, allowing an average of 4.0 sacks per game against teams that only generate 2.1 per game.
This is a great spot for the Bucs and there is a small sample 8-0 situation that applies to them here. While the Bucs have been home for three weeks and are rested, Minnesota has spent three of their past four games on the road and could be a tired team after a last second loss in Buffalo last week. Tampa Bay has talent on both sides of the ball and will be prepared to best utilize it in this game. Bucs defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier has been the head coach/defensive coordinator of the Vikings for the past 7 years before coming to Tampa this season and should have some unique insights into how to best exploit the weaknesses of many of the players he coached. I’ll take the Bucs -2.5 for 2-stars up to -3
