SUNSHINE FORECAST
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Oakland Raiders (+7) at Baltimore Ravens
Power Rating Projection:
Baltimore Ravens 26 Oakland Raiders 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oakland Raiders 24 Baltimore Ravens 23
Oakland Raiders (1 star)
New Orleans Saints (+3) vs. San Diego Chargers [@ London, England]
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego Chargers 25 New Orleans Saints 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego Chargers 31 New Orleans Saints 30
Kansas City Chiefs (+11½) at New York Jets
Power Rating Projection:
New York Jets 26 Kansas City Chiefs 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New York Jets 23 Kansas City Chiefs 10
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Miami Dolphins
Power Rating Projection:
Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Buffalo Bills 15 Miami Dolphins 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+1) at Dallas Cowboys
Power Rating Projection:
Dallas Cowboys 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys 35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22
Dallas Cowboys (1 star)
Atlanta Falcons (+7½) at Philadelphia Eagles
Power Rating Projection:
Philadelphia Eagles 23 Atlanta Falcons 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Philadelphia Eagles 20 Atlanta Falcons 13
St Louis Rams (+4½) at New England Patriots
Power Rating Projection:
New England Patriots 27 St Louis Rams 12
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New England Patriots 23 St Louis Rams 9
Arizona Cardinals (+4½) at Carolina Panthers
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 24 Arizona Cardinals 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 26 Arizona Cardinals 22
Washington Redskins (-7½) at Detroit Lions
Power Rating Projection:
Washington Redskins 26 Detroit Lions 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Washington Redskins 28 Detroit Lions 20
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Washington Redskins ( No additional conditions, 48-68-3, 41.4% )
Cleveland Browns (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Power Rating Projection:
Jacksonville Jaguars 25 Cleveland Browns 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Cleveland Browns 16
New York Giants (+1) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 New York Giants 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 28 New York Giants 26
Seattle Seahawks (+5) at San Francisco 49ers
Power Rating Projection:
San Francisco 49ers 23 Seattle Seahawks 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 22
Cincinnati Bengals (+10) at Houston Texans
Power Rating Projection:
Houston Texans 25 Cincinnati Bengals 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Houston Texans 28 Cincinnati Bengals 23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, October 27, 2008
Indianapolis Colts (+3½) at Tennessee Titans
Power Rating Projection:
Tennessee Titans 21 Indianapolis Colts 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tennessee Titans 19 Indianapolis Colts 17
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Oakland Raiders (+7) at Baltimore Ravens
Power Rating Projection:
Baltimore Ravens 26 Oakland Raiders 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Oakland Raiders 24 Baltimore Ravens 23
Oakland Raiders (1 star)
New Orleans Saints (+3) vs. San Diego Chargers [@ London, England]
Power Rating Projection:
San Diego Chargers 25 New Orleans Saints 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Diego Chargers 31 New Orleans Saints 30
Kansas City Chiefs (+11½) at New York Jets
Power Rating Projection:
New York Jets 26 Kansas City Chiefs 14
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New York Jets 23 Kansas City Chiefs 10
Buffalo Bills (-1) at Miami Dolphins
Power Rating Projection:
Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Buffalo Bills 15 Miami Dolphins 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+1) at Dallas Cowboys
Power Rating Projection:
Dallas Cowboys 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Dallas Cowboys 35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22
Dallas Cowboys (1 star)
Atlanta Falcons (+7½) at Philadelphia Eagles
Power Rating Projection:
Philadelphia Eagles 23 Atlanta Falcons 16
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Philadelphia Eagles 20 Atlanta Falcons 13
St Louis Rams (+4½) at New England Patriots
Power Rating Projection:
New England Patriots 27 St Louis Rams 12
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
New England Patriots 23 St Louis Rams 9
Arizona Cardinals (+4½) at Carolina Panthers
Power Rating Projection:
Carolina Panthers 24 Arizona Cardinals 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Carolina Panthers 26 Arizona Cardinals 22
Washington Redskins (-7½) at Detroit Lions
Power Rating Projection:
Washington Redskins 26 Detroit Lions 18
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Washington Redskins 28 Detroit Lions 20
Angle: Favored by More Than 7 Points on the Road [Road teams favored by more than 7 points ]
Go against Washington Redskins ( No additional conditions, 48-68-3, 41.4% )
Cleveland Browns (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Power Rating Projection:
Jacksonville Jaguars 25 Cleveland Browns 17
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Cleveland Browns 16
New York Giants (+1) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Power Rating Projection:
Pittsburgh Steelers 24 New York Giants 22
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Pittsburgh Steelers 28 New York Giants 26
Seattle Seahawks (+5) at San Francisco 49ers
Power Rating Projection:
San Francisco 49ers 23 Seattle Seahawks 21
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
San Francisco 49ers 24 Seattle Seahawks 22
Cincinnati Bengals (+10) at Houston Texans
Power Rating Projection:
Houston Texans 25 Cincinnati Bengals 20
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Houston Texans 28 Cincinnati Bengals 23
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday, October 27, 2008
Indianapolis Colts (+3½) at Tennessee Titans
Power Rating Projection:
Tennessee Titans 21 Indianapolis Colts 19
Statistical Projections
Too early for statistical projections
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tennessee Titans 19 Indianapolis Colts 17
SUNSHINE FORECAST
NCAAF
Sunday, October 26, 2008
U-C-F(+21) at Tulsa
Power Rating Projection:
Tulsa 49 U-C-F 19
Statistical Projections
U-C-F 25
Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 159
Turnovers: 2 Tulsa 33
Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 293
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to U-C-F
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tulsa 56 U-C-F 26
NCAAF
Sunday, October 26, 2008
U-C-F(+21) at Tulsa
Power Rating Projection:
Tulsa 49 U-C-F 19
Statistical Projections
U-C-F 25
Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 159
Turnovers: 2 Tulsa 33
Rushing Yards: 162
Passing Yards: 293
Turnovers: 2
** Statistical edge to U-C-F
SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:
Tulsa 56 U-C-F 26
Norm Hitzges
NFL
Double Plays
Cincinnati +9.5 vs Houston
Philadelphia -9 vs Atlanta
Single Plays
Buffalo/Miami Under 42.5
NY Giants +2.5 vs Pittsburgh
NY Giants/Pittsburgh Over 42
Baltimore -7 vs Oakland
Kansas City +13.5 vs NY Jets
Carolina -4 vs Arizona
Tampa Bay +2.5 vs Dallas
Tampa Bay/Dallas Under 40.5
NFL
Double Plays
Cincinnati +9.5 vs Houston
Philadelphia -9 vs Atlanta
Single Plays
Buffalo/Miami Under 42.5
NY Giants +2.5 vs Pittsburgh
NY Giants/Pittsburgh Over 42
Baltimore -7 vs Oakland
Kansas City +13.5 vs NY Jets
Carolina -4 vs Arizona
Tampa Bay +2.5 vs Dallas
Tampa Bay/Dallas Under 40.5
Jimmy The Moose
Game: San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints Oct 26 2008 1:00PM
Prediction: under
Reason: The Chargers have played under the total in their last 3 games. Over their last 3 games San Diego is averaging 18 PPG while their D is giving up 16.7 per contest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games played in October. The Saints have played the under in their last 2 games. New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush in this one and his injury will hurt this team. Last year when the team's played in London, England it was rainy and the field wasn't the best resulting in a low scoring game, look for the same today. Play the under.
Game: San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints Oct 26 2008 1:00PM
Prediction: under
Reason: The Chargers have played under the total in their last 3 games. Over their last 3 games San Diego is averaging 18 PPG while their D is giving up 16.7 per contest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games played in October. The Saints have played the under in their last 2 games. New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush in this one and his injury will hurt this team. Last year when the team's played in London, England it was rainy and the field wasn't the best resulting in a low scoring game, look for the same today. Play the under.
GOLD SHEET
NCAAF
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26
*** *TULSA 56 - UCF 24—While the old-school handicapper in us might tend to favor defense over offense, the firepower edge enjoyed by Tulsa in this matchup is so stark that we’re compelled to lay the lumber. How can sputtering UCF (just 243 ypg—worst in country) possibly keep pace with juggernaut Golden Hurricane side that peppers the scoreboard with a nation-leading 57 ppg? CABLE TV—ESPN (07-UCF 44-Tulsa 23...T.25-24 U.48/229 T.25/59 T.35/61/4/320 U.21/29/0/224 U.1 T.0)
(07-UCF -3 44-23 05-Tulsa -2 44-27 at Orlando...SR: EVEN 1-1)
NCAAF
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26
*** *TULSA 56 - UCF 24—While the old-school handicapper in us might tend to favor defense over offense, the firepower edge enjoyed by Tulsa in this matchup is so stark that we’re compelled to lay the lumber. How can sputtering UCF (just 243 ypg—worst in country) possibly keep pace with juggernaut Golden Hurricane side that peppers the scoreboard with a nation-leading 57 ppg? CABLE TV—ESPN (07-UCF 44-Tulsa 23...T.25-24 U.48/229 T.25/59 T.35/61/4/320 U.21/29/0/224 U.1 T.0)
(07-UCF -3 44-23 05-Tulsa -2 44-27 at Orlando...SR: EVEN 1-1)
Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner (ATS blowout!)
Larry has some "making up to do" after a poor Saturday but he had no problems winning his Weekend Wipeout Winner in CFB. Missouri (-24) beat Colordao, 58-0 and while you don't get blowouts like that too often in the NFL, Larry anticipates a "double-digit ATS win"with his NFL Week 8 Weekend Wipeout Winner. Any takers?
Carolina Panthers
GOLD SHEET
NFL
KEY RELEASES
MIAMI by 10 over Buffalo
WASHINGTON by 18 over Detroit
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Giants-Pittsburgh game
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26
BALTIMORE 21 - Oakland 10—It appears that Baltimore rookie QB Joe
Flacco is further ahead in his development than second-year Oakland QB
JaMarcus Russell. Considering Russell’s protracted holdout in 2007 and TY’s
early coaching change, that’s quite understandable. Ravens suffered a blow
when aggressive G Marshall Yanda, the new anchor of their OL following the
retirement of Jonathan Ogden after LY, suffered a season-ending injury. But in
a duel of the Ryan brothers as defensive coordinators, we’ll trust Ray Lewis &
Co. to get into the head of the talented—but young—Mr. Russell.
(06-BALTIMORE -12' 28-6...SR: Baltimore 4-1)
New Orleans 23 - San Diego 17—If the Wembley pitch is as waterlogged as
it was for last year’s Giants-Dolphins mud bath (and rain is a good bet this time
of year in London), then Reggie Bush’s likely absence due to a knee injury might
not hurt N.O. as it might have on the fast track of the Superdome. Besides,
Deuce McAllister might be a better infantry alternative on an “off” track anyway.
Meanwhile, we’re beginning to wonder if it’s the occasional bursts of brilliance,
or the ongoing inconsistencies, that represent the “real” San Diego, which
misses Shawne Merriman’s pressure and intimidation on defense and is
another misstep from falling to 3-5. (at London, England)
(04-SAN DIEGO -6' 43-17...SR: San Diego 7-2)
NY JETS 30 - Kansas City 13—Even with the pointspread lofty, K.C. has too
many problems to make the Chiefs a worthy side. QB carousel. Tony
Gonzalez’ attempt to get out. High-maintenance Larry Johnson in the
doghouse. Youth in the OL. Effort concerns on defense (Titans 332 YR last
week). Jets are 2-1 vs. the spread at home TY and capable of a much better
offensive effort than last week’s 13 points in OT. Thomas Jones had 159 YR
week ago behind N.Y.’s improved OL. In Favre we trust.
(07-NYJ 13-K. City 10 (OT)...N.20-14 N.45/199 K.19/53 K.20/43/0/166 N.14/26/0/138 N.0 K.0)
(07-NY JETS -5 13-10 (OT)...SR: Kansas City 17-16-1)
***MIAMI 23 - Buffalo 13—Perhaps Baltimore’s defense has provided the
road map to deal with Ronnie Brown and Miami’s “Wildcat” formations, blitzing
repeatedly and limiting the Dolphins to just 4 yards on 5 Wildcat plays last week.
Buffalo, however, neither stonewalls the run nor pressures the passer as well as
the Ravens, so Chad Pennington (75% the past 4 weeks) ought to be able to so
some business. No complaints about Trent Edwards, but Bills not trustworthy
on the road, especially with their OL experiencing power shortages (Fowler out
last week) and with Marshawn Lynch yet to crack the century mark.
(07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)
(07-BUF. 38-Miami 17...B.20-18 B.40/224 M.21/65 M.23/44/2/220 B.11/23/0/165 B.1 M.3)
(07-Buffalo -2' 13-10, BUFFALO -7 38-17...SR: Miami 50-37-1)
DALLAS 20 - Tampa Bay 16—The absence of Tony Romo, RB Felix Jones,
CB Adam Jones, WR Sam Hurd and P Mat McBriar proved to be far more than
Dallas could absorb last week, even vs. marginal St. Louis. Moreover,
considering the way the Cowboy OL and defense played, the coaching staff can
also be faulted for failing to fire up the remaining core of key Dallas players.
Romo’s status remains uncertain at this writing, but the Cowboys’ 2-10 spread
mark their last 12 overall is not. At our deadline, we’re uncomfortable laying
more than four in Dallas’ return home after two defeats.
(06-DALLAS -11 38-10...SR: Dallas 9-3)
PHILADELPHIA 20 - Atlanta 17—Normally reluctant to recommend a rookie
QB against Jim Johnson’s aggressive Philly defense that made Ben
Roethlisberger look like chopped liver at the Linc in September. But Atlanta’s
Matt Ryan is mature far beyond his years, and the presence of Michael Turner
(597 YR) is providing the necessary balance for the Falcon attack. And with
new HC Mike Smith “slowing down” the games for Ryan, it’s doubtful the Eagles
can capitalize on the sort of mistakes they did vs. Mike Martz’ 49er offense in
Philly’s last outing. A bit reluctant to lay significant points with Eagles until Brian
Westbrook (ribs; check status) able to play with abandon.
(06-PHILADELPHIA -8' 24-17...SR: Philadelphia 14-11-1)
NEW ENGLAND 20 - St. Louis 17—Rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI in the
2001 season, when Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes vs. Mike Martz’ offense
and the clutch plays of the young Tom Brady began the Patriots’ dynasty. Lots
has happened since then, most of it good for the Pats and bad for the
Rams...until Brady’s knee injury. St. Louis has put together back-to-back hardfought
victories, with Steven Jackson rushing for 239 yards in the two and
speedy rookie WR Donnie Avery contributing 9 recs. for 138 yards. Rams have
a long way to go, but Pats were 0-7 vs. the spread their last 7 at Foxborough
prior to their Monday nighter vs. Denver.
(04-New England P 40-22...SR: EVEN 5-5)
CAROLINA 30 - Arizona 16—Now that order has been re-established in
Charlotte after last week’s 30-7 romp past the Saints, will lay points with
confident host. After all, Panthers a much different “animal” when Jonathan
Stewart & DeAngelo Williams (66 & 68 YR, respectively, last week) establish
Carolina’s power rush attack, allowing Jake Delhomme to execute play-action
and locate old friends Steve Smith (6 for 122 vs. Saints) & Muhsin Muhammad
downfield. Meanwhile, Arizona one of the five western-most teams that has
struggled with cross-country travel (2-7 vs. spread in role TY; Cards have
already lost at Skins & Jets).
(07-Car. 25-ARIZ. 10...C.14-10 C.30/181 A.26/98 C.20/33/0/193 A.14/26/3/159 C.0 A.2)
(07-Carolina +5 25-10...SR: Carolina 5-2)
***Washington 31 - DETROIT 13—Redskins once captured 18 straight
meetings between these two from 1968-97. Detroit is 2-3 in the series since,
but it’s hard to count on them—even as a sizeable home dog—now that they’re
clearly thinking of the future (e.g., GM Matt Millen ousted, WR Roy Williams
traded, QB Jon Kitna placed on IR). Redskin OL is being praised for its
improvement in Jim Zorn’s West Coast base, and Shaun Alexander is now
around to help relieve some of the work load on Clinton Portis (818 YR).
Opposing QBs Jason Campbell (no ints. TY) & Dan Orlovsky both in their fourth
seasons. But who is more likely to make costly mistakes? Lions—trying to
overcome poor choices in the front office and on draft day—only 3-11 vs. the
spread last 14 overall.
(07-WASH. 34-Det. 3...W.23-11 W.35/118 D.20/68 W.23/29/0/248 D.16/29/2/76 W.1 D.0)
(07-WASHINGTON -3' 34-3...SR: Washington 29-10)
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Cleveland 20—Jags 0-3 vs. the spread at home, as
TY’s early OL injuries a key factor in the team’s inconsistent 2008 offense.
Jacksonville is hopeful that C Brad Meester, G Chris Naeole, and S Reggie
Nelson will be returning to action for this game after its bye week. However,
Cleveland (16-6 last 22 vs. the spread) also benefited health-wise from its recent
bye week and seems ready to rejoin the AFC playoff chase if only Browns can
get QB Derek Anderson (14 of 37 at Wash. last week) back on track.
(05-Jacksonville -3 20-14...SR: Jacksonville 8-2)
***OVER THE TOTAL NY Giants 27 - PITTSBURGH 26—Winners of two
of last three Super Bowls. Can the 2008 Steeler OL, with no big-play threat of
Willie Parker (check status) behind it, keep the attacking N.Y. pass rushers off
Ben Roethlisberger? Remember, Giants’ offensive coordinator Steve
Spagnuolo is a pupil of the Eagles’ Jimmy Johnson, who battered Pittsburgh
QBs for nine sacks a month ago in Philly. G-men warmed up with six sacks vs.
S.F. last week and are surely deeper at RB, while Eli was able to throw just fine
despite bruised chest. Steelers “over” 2-0 at home TY and “over” 43-14-1 last
58 at Heinz Field!!!
(04-Pittsburgh -10 33-30...SR: NY Giants 43-28-3)
SAN FRANCISCO 23 - Seattle 17—S.F. offense suffering from problems
with sacks (28) and turnovers (-8), while Mike Holmgren can’t seem to keep his
beloved offense healthy in his final year in Seattle. Seahawks have garnered
only 187, 177 & 176 total yards, respectively, in their last three games. Seattle
blew a 17-6 lead in the first meeting TY, losing at home in OT despite outrushing
the 49ers 169-93, but turning loose J.T. O’Sullivan for several key plays
in the second half. Niners only 1-2-1 when favored the last 2+Ys, but they have
a few more weapons going for them than crippled Hawks.
(08-S. Fr. 33-SEA. 30 (OT)...Se.22-20 Se.34/169 Sf.23/93 Sf.20/32/0/272 Se.18/36/2/182 Sf.1 Se.1)
(07-Sea. 23-S. FR. 3...Se.17-9 Sf.19/109 Se.37/93 Se.23/32/1/278 Sf.12/34/2/75 Se.0 Sf.1)
(07-SEA. 24-S. Fr. 0...Se.27-6 Se.36/106 Sf.16/79 Se.27/40/1/274 Sf.12/28/0/94 Se.1 Sf.2)
(08-S. Fran. +6' 33-30 (OT); 07-Sea. -2 23-3, SEA. -9' 24-0...SR: Seattle 10-9)
WRITE-IN GAME
HOUSTON 34 - Cincinnati 17 [Schedule re-arrangement due to due
Hurricane Ike]—Houston did everything but blow out the Lions last week, with
only a Matt Schaub fumble in the red zone keeping the game from being a first
half rout. Detroit then used a couple of 54-yard FGs and a 96-yard TD pass to
come in the back door. With Schaub completing 26 of 31 vs. the Lions, can’t
count on Ryan Fitzpatrick (0-3 vs. the spread as a starter vs. Browns, Jets,
Steelers) to keep pace. (05-CIN. +9' 16 - Hou. 10...SR: Cincy 3-0)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 27
*Indianapolis 24 - TENNESSEE 23—Indy is clearly not the team of recent
years. Peyton Manning has only 8 TDP vs. 7 ints. The OL has been banged up,
Joseph Addai is expected to miss another game, and Marvin Harrison doesn’t
seem to be his old self. The DL is undersized, and 2007 defensive player of the
year Bob Sanders is out. In LY’s 16-10 Titan victory in Game 16, Tennessee
needed to win, while the Colts did not, with Manning completing 14 of 16 before
taking a seat. But it’s now do-or-die for one of the league’s proudest teams,
which is 8-4 vs. the spread the last 5+Ys as a road dog. Titans 6-0 SU & vs the
spread in 2008, but their schedule has hardly been imposing. Let’s see how
they cope with Indy’s desperation shot. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-Indy 22-TENN. 20...I.23-19 T.34/141 I.22/81 I.28/42/1/300 T.17/27/0/172 I.0 T.2)
(07-Tenn. 16-INDY 10...T.25-13 T.39/98 I.10/46 T.24/31/0/258 I.25/40/0/148 T.2 I.1)
(07-Indianapolis -7 22-20, Tennessee -4' 16-10...SR: Indianapolis 15-12)
NFL
KEY RELEASES
MIAMI by 10 over Buffalo
WASHINGTON by 18 over Detroit
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Giants-Pittsburgh game
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 26
BALTIMORE 21 - Oakland 10—It appears that Baltimore rookie QB Joe
Flacco is further ahead in his development than second-year Oakland QB
JaMarcus Russell. Considering Russell’s protracted holdout in 2007 and TY’s
early coaching change, that’s quite understandable. Ravens suffered a blow
when aggressive G Marshall Yanda, the new anchor of their OL following the
retirement of Jonathan Ogden after LY, suffered a season-ending injury. But in
a duel of the Ryan brothers as defensive coordinators, we’ll trust Ray Lewis &
Co. to get into the head of the talented—but young—Mr. Russell.
(06-BALTIMORE -12' 28-6...SR: Baltimore 4-1)
New Orleans 23 - San Diego 17—If the Wembley pitch is as waterlogged as
it was for last year’s Giants-Dolphins mud bath (and rain is a good bet this time
of year in London), then Reggie Bush’s likely absence due to a knee injury might
not hurt N.O. as it might have on the fast track of the Superdome. Besides,
Deuce McAllister might be a better infantry alternative on an “off” track anyway.
Meanwhile, we’re beginning to wonder if it’s the occasional bursts of brilliance,
or the ongoing inconsistencies, that represent the “real” San Diego, which
misses Shawne Merriman’s pressure and intimidation on defense and is
another misstep from falling to 3-5. (at London, England)
(04-SAN DIEGO -6' 43-17...SR: San Diego 7-2)
NY JETS 30 - Kansas City 13—Even with the pointspread lofty, K.C. has too
many problems to make the Chiefs a worthy side. QB carousel. Tony
Gonzalez’ attempt to get out. High-maintenance Larry Johnson in the
doghouse. Youth in the OL. Effort concerns on defense (Titans 332 YR last
week). Jets are 2-1 vs. the spread at home TY and capable of a much better
offensive effort than last week’s 13 points in OT. Thomas Jones had 159 YR
week ago behind N.Y.’s improved OL. In Favre we trust.
(07-NYJ 13-K. City 10 (OT)...N.20-14 N.45/199 K.19/53 K.20/43/0/166 N.14/26/0/138 N.0 K.0)
(07-NY JETS -5 13-10 (OT)...SR: Kansas City 17-16-1)
***MIAMI 23 - Buffalo 13—Perhaps Baltimore’s defense has provided the
road map to deal with Ronnie Brown and Miami’s “Wildcat” formations, blitzing
repeatedly and limiting the Dolphins to just 4 yards on 5 Wildcat plays last week.
Buffalo, however, neither stonewalls the run nor pressures the passer as well as
the Ravens, so Chad Pennington (75% the past 4 weeks) ought to be able to so
some business. No complaints about Trent Edwards, but Bills not trustworthy
on the road, especially with their OL experiencing power shortages (Fowler out
last week) and with Marshawn Lynch yet to crack the century mark.
(07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)
(07-BUF. 38-Miami 17...B.20-18 B.40/224 M.21/65 M.23/44/2/220 B.11/23/0/165 B.1 M.3)
(07-Buffalo -2' 13-10, BUFFALO -7 38-17...SR: Miami 50-37-1)
DALLAS 20 - Tampa Bay 16—The absence of Tony Romo, RB Felix Jones,
CB Adam Jones, WR Sam Hurd and P Mat McBriar proved to be far more than
Dallas could absorb last week, even vs. marginal St. Louis. Moreover,
considering the way the Cowboy OL and defense played, the coaching staff can
also be faulted for failing to fire up the remaining core of key Dallas players.
Romo’s status remains uncertain at this writing, but the Cowboys’ 2-10 spread
mark their last 12 overall is not. At our deadline, we’re uncomfortable laying
more than four in Dallas’ return home after two defeats.
(06-DALLAS -11 38-10...SR: Dallas 9-3)
PHILADELPHIA 20 - Atlanta 17—Normally reluctant to recommend a rookie
QB against Jim Johnson’s aggressive Philly defense that made Ben
Roethlisberger look like chopped liver at the Linc in September. But Atlanta’s
Matt Ryan is mature far beyond his years, and the presence of Michael Turner
(597 YR) is providing the necessary balance for the Falcon attack. And with
new HC Mike Smith “slowing down” the games for Ryan, it’s doubtful the Eagles
can capitalize on the sort of mistakes they did vs. Mike Martz’ 49er offense in
Philly’s last outing. A bit reluctant to lay significant points with Eagles until Brian
Westbrook (ribs; check status) able to play with abandon.
(06-PHILADELPHIA -8' 24-17...SR: Philadelphia 14-11-1)
NEW ENGLAND 20 - St. Louis 17—Rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI in the
2001 season, when Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes vs. Mike Martz’ offense
and the clutch plays of the young Tom Brady began the Patriots’ dynasty. Lots
has happened since then, most of it good for the Pats and bad for the
Rams...until Brady’s knee injury. St. Louis has put together back-to-back hardfought
victories, with Steven Jackson rushing for 239 yards in the two and
speedy rookie WR Donnie Avery contributing 9 recs. for 138 yards. Rams have
a long way to go, but Pats were 0-7 vs. the spread their last 7 at Foxborough
prior to their Monday nighter vs. Denver.
(04-New England P 40-22...SR: EVEN 5-5)
CAROLINA 30 - Arizona 16—Now that order has been re-established in
Charlotte after last week’s 30-7 romp past the Saints, will lay points with
confident host. After all, Panthers a much different “animal” when Jonathan
Stewart & DeAngelo Williams (66 & 68 YR, respectively, last week) establish
Carolina’s power rush attack, allowing Jake Delhomme to execute play-action
and locate old friends Steve Smith (6 for 122 vs. Saints) & Muhsin Muhammad
downfield. Meanwhile, Arizona one of the five western-most teams that has
struggled with cross-country travel (2-7 vs. spread in role TY; Cards have
already lost at Skins & Jets).
(07-Car. 25-ARIZ. 10...C.14-10 C.30/181 A.26/98 C.20/33/0/193 A.14/26/3/159 C.0 A.2)
(07-Carolina +5 25-10...SR: Carolina 5-2)
***Washington 31 - DETROIT 13—Redskins once captured 18 straight
meetings between these two from 1968-97. Detroit is 2-3 in the series since,
but it’s hard to count on them—even as a sizeable home dog—now that they’re
clearly thinking of the future (e.g., GM Matt Millen ousted, WR Roy Williams
traded, QB Jon Kitna placed on IR). Redskin OL is being praised for its
improvement in Jim Zorn’s West Coast base, and Shaun Alexander is now
around to help relieve some of the work load on Clinton Portis (818 YR).
Opposing QBs Jason Campbell (no ints. TY) & Dan Orlovsky both in their fourth
seasons. But who is more likely to make costly mistakes? Lions—trying to
overcome poor choices in the front office and on draft day—only 3-11 vs. the
spread last 14 overall.
(07-WASH. 34-Det. 3...W.23-11 W.35/118 D.20/68 W.23/29/0/248 D.16/29/2/76 W.1 D.0)
(07-WASHINGTON -3' 34-3...SR: Washington 29-10)
JACKSONVILLE 23 - Cleveland 20—Jags 0-3 vs. the spread at home, as
TY’s early OL injuries a key factor in the team’s inconsistent 2008 offense.
Jacksonville is hopeful that C Brad Meester, G Chris Naeole, and S Reggie
Nelson will be returning to action for this game after its bye week. However,
Cleveland (16-6 last 22 vs. the spread) also benefited health-wise from its recent
bye week and seems ready to rejoin the AFC playoff chase if only Browns can
get QB Derek Anderson (14 of 37 at Wash. last week) back on track.
(05-Jacksonville -3 20-14...SR: Jacksonville 8-2)
***OVER THE TOTAL NY Giants 27 - PITTSBURGH 26—Winners of two
of last three Super Bowls. Can the 2008 Steeler OL, with no big-play threat of
Willie Parker (check status) behind it, keep the attacking N.Y. pass rushers off
Ben Roethlisberger? Remember, Giants’ offensive coordinator Steve
Spagnuolo is a pupil of the Eagles’ Jimmy Johnson, who battered Pittsburgh
QBs for nine sacks a month ago in Philly. G-men warmed up with six sacks vs.
S.F. last week and are surely deeper at RB, while Eli was able to throw just fine
despite bruised chest. Steelers “over” 2-0 at home TY and “over” 43-14-1 last
58 at Heinz Field!!!
(04-Pittsburgh -10 33-30...SR: NY Giants 43-28-3)
SAN FRANCISCO 23 - Seattle 17—S.F. offense suffering from problems
with sacks (28) and turnovers (-8), while Mike Holmgren can’t seem to keep his
beloved offense healthy in his final year in Seattle. Seahawks have garnered
only 187, 177 & 176 total yards, respectively, in their last three games. Seattle
blew a 17-6 lead in the first meeting TY, losing at home in OT despite outrushing
the 49ers 169-93, but turning loose J.T. O’Sullivan for several key plays
in the second half. Niners only 1-2-1 when favored the last 2+Ys, but they have
a few more weapons going for them than crippled Hawks.
(08-S. Fr. 33-SEA. 30 (OT)...Se.22-20 Se.34/169 Sf.23/93 Sf.20/32/0/272 Se.18/36/2/182 Sf.1 Se.1)
(07-Sea. 23-S. FR. 3...Se.17-9 Sf.19/109 Se.37/93 Se.23/32/1/278 Sf.12/34/2/75 Se.0 Sf.1)
(07-SEA. 24-S. Fr. 0...Se.27-6 Se.36/106 Sf.16/79 Se.27/40/1/274 Sf.12/28/0/94 Se.1 Sf.2)
(08-S. Fran. +6' 33-30 (OT); 07-Sea. -2 23-3, SEA. -9' 24-0...SR: Seattle 10-9)
WRITE-IN GAME
HOUSTON 34 - Cincinnati 17 [Schedule re-arrangement due to due
Hurricane Ike]—Houston did everything but blow out the Lions last week, with
only a Matt Schaub fumble in the red zone keeping the game from being a first
half rout. Detroit then used a couple of 54-yard FGs and a 96-yard TD pass to
come in the back door. With Schaub completing 26 of 31 vs. the Lions, can’t
count on Ryan Fitzpatrick (0-3 vs. the spread as a starter vs. Browns, Jets,
Steelers) to keep pace. (05-CIN. +9' 16 - Hou. 10...SR: Cincy 3-0)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 27
*Indianapolis 24 - TENNESSEE 23—Indy is clearly not the team of recent
years. Peyton Manning has only 8 TDP vs. 7 ints. The OL has been banged up,
Joseph Addai is expected to miss another game, and Marvin Harrison doesn’t
seem to be his old self. The DL is undersized, and 2007 defensive player of the
year Bob Sanders is out. In LY’s 16-10 Titan victory in Game 16, Tennessee
needed to win, while the Colts did not, with Manning completing 14 of 16 before
taking a seat. But it’s now do-or-die for one of the league’s proudest teams,
which is 8-4 vs. the spread the last 5+Ys as a road dog. Titans 6-0 SU & vs the
spread in 2008, but their schedule has hardly been imposing. Let’s see how
they cope with Indy’s desperation shot. CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-Indy 22-TENN. 20...I.23-19 T.34/141 I.22/81 I.28/42/1/300 T.17/27/0/172 I.0 T.2)
(07-Tenn. 16-INDY 10...T.25-13 T.39/98 I.10/46 T.24/31/0/258 I.25/40/0/148 T.2 I.1)
(07-Indianapolis -7 22-20, Tennessee -4' 16-10...SR: Indianapolis 15-12)
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
(NFC GOY)--- PHILADELPHIA -9.5 over Atlanta
The Falcons are 0-8 ATS vs. teams that average 5.65 ypp or better, while the Eagles are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 5-0 ATS off a bye week if vs. a .666 or better opponent. The Eagles traditionally have been a good team coming off a bye week as they are 11-3 ATS with a week of rest, including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last 9 off a bye, allowing just 8.8 ppg in those last 9 with rest. The Eagles have also gone 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they played Atlanta here, winning by an average of 16 ppg. The Eagles defense has been tough all year, ranking 7th overall and 11th in scoring and will be taking on an Atlanta offense that is 9th overall and 15th in scoring. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has been solid this year for them, but mostly at home and he has not seen the kind of blitzing schemes that Jimmy Johnson and this Eagles defense will throw at him. The Eagle offense ranks 10th overall, 4th in passing and 4th in scoring and they should be getting back Westbrook for this one, so look for them to have a big day vs. an Atlanta defense that is 25th overall and 26th vs. the pass. They do allow just 21.2 ppg, but I see the Eagles putting at least 30 on the board for them. Matt Ryan has struggled on the road this year and will have all sorts of problems vs. JJ's defense, so I see them having a hard time reaching double digits in this one. Eagles roll easily.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Total Of The Week--- NY Jets/ Kansas City Over 39
The Over is 8-1 when KC is off 4 consecutive games in which they allowed 6 ypp or more and 6-0 in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, while the Over is 13-3 when the Jets are off 2 consecutive games where they had a TO margin of -2 or worse and 4-1 in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Both teams have given up their share of points this year, as the Chiefs have allowed 27.5 ppg, while the Jets have allowed 24.3 ppg. The Chiefs have not been great on offense this year, but they may get a spark from 3rd string QB Tyler Thigpen, who will be facing the 24th ranked passing defense of the Jets. NY Can score points as they are 8th in the league in scoring at 25.7 ppg and they should have a good day vs. the 31st ranked overall defense of the Chiefs. KC?s offense should be able to get at least 17 in this one while I can see the Jets putting up 27 or more. This game easily flies over the posted total.
Underdog Of The Week--- Cincinnati +9 over Houston
The Texans are 4-15 ATS off a home win and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Houston Checks in at 2-4 on the season and yet they are huge home favs for their 2nd week in a row. Of the two wins, one was by just 1 point, while the other was by 7 and this team allows nearly 30 ppg on the year. Certainly not good enough numbers to warrant being such a big fav, even though they are facing the 0-7 Bengals. Yes the Bengals are 0-7, but this team has played hard as evidenced by their game vs. Dallas and they were in the Jets game for most of it. Last week they had a topugh go of it vs. Pittsburgh, but Houston is not the Steelers. Last week Houston struggled some with the Lions and I feel the Bengals are better than the Motor City boys and they will be able to keep this game to Under a TD.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Atlanta Under 45.5
The Under is 0-9 in the Falcons last 9 games off a bye and 10-2 in their last 12 on grass fields, while the Under is 17-3 when Philly is off a bye week and 25-7 in the month of October. This OU line seem a bit high considering the Eagles have allowed just 8.8 ppg in their last 9 post bye games and they are facing a QB that has not seen the kind of blitzing schemes he will see today. I really don?t see the Falcons getting double digits in this one so in order for this one to go over the Eagles will have to put 35 plus on the board. They have an offense to do it, but may not get as many chances as the Falcons should be running the ball more in this one and that will help the clock run. I see a 30-7 final in this one.
Buffalo -1 over MIAMI
Buffalo is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. teams with a losing record and 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win, while Miami is 2-11 ATS at home off 1 or more losses in a row and 6-22-2 ATS in their last 30 vs. AFC East. The Bills are rolling right now as they sit at 5-1 with a 1 game lead over the Pats in the AFC East. The Bills offense has taken off this year as they are 13th in passing and 10th in scoring putting up 24.3 ppg, compared to the 16 ppg, 19 ppg and 1`7 ppg they have put up the last 3 years. The defense has been very good this year for the Bills as they rank 10th overall, 8th vs. the pass and 10th in points allowed at 19.7 ppg. One look at last weeks game vs. the top scoring team in the league (San Diego) will show you just how good this defense is right now. A few weeks back the Dolphins unleashed their wildcat offense on the Pats and it was a huge success, but teams have caught on a bit as the Miami rushing numbers have decreased in each of the last 3 weeks. Miami is week vs. the pass as they rank 27th in that department and should have all sorts of problems vs. the Buffalo passing attack that has taken off. Miami has looked better this year, but Buffalo has the edges on both sides of the ball, plus the ST edge and they have momentum. Too much for Miami to handle here.
Teaser Of The Week--- 3 Team 6 Point Teaser: Philly -3.5, St Louis/ New England Under 48.5 & Cleveland +13
2 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona/ Carolina Over 43
The Over is 23-8 when Arizona has won 2 of their last 3 games and 12-2 after scoring 25+ points in 2 consecutive games, while the Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games in Week 8. The Arizona Cardinals are the top scoring team in the league at 29.5 ppg, but their defense has not been as good as they are allowing 24 ppg thus far. That offense will have a tough test this week vs. the 3rd ranked scoring defense of the Panthers, but I do see them still getting about 21 in this one. Carolina?s offense scores just 21 ppg overall this year, but at home that number jumps to 27 ppg. I see about 48 points in this one.
3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- Cleveland +17, Pittsburgh +7 & Cincinnati +19
1 UNIT PLAY
3 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Oakland/ Baltimore Under 41.5, Arizona/ Carolina Over 37 & San Diego/ New Orleans Over 40
5 UNIT PLAY
(NFC GOY)--- PHILADELPHIA -9.5 over Atlanta
The Falcons are 0-8 ATS vs. teams that average 5.65 ypp or better, while the Eagles are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 5-0 ATS off a bye week if vs. a .666 or better opponent. The Eagles traditionally have been a good team coming off a bye week as they are 11-3 ATS with a week of rest, including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last 9 off a bye, allowing just 8.8 ppg in those last 9 with rest. The Eagles have also gone 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they played Atlanta here, winning by an average of 16 ppg. The Eagles defense has been tough all year, ranking 7th overall and 11th in scoring and will be taking on an Atlanta offense that is 9th overall and 15th in scoring. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has been solid this year for them, but mostly at home and he has not seen the kind of blitzing schemes that Jimmy Johnson and this Eagles defense will throw at him. The Eagle offense ranks 10th overall, 4th in passing and 4th in scoring and they should be getting back Westbrook for this one, so look for them to have a big day vs. an Atlanta defense that is 25th overall and 26th vs. the pass. They do allow just 21.2 ppg, but I see the Eagles putting at least 30 on the board for them. Matt Ryan has struggled on the road this year and will have all sorts of problems vs. JJ's defense, so I see them having a hard time reaching double digits in this one. Eagles roll easily.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Total Of The Week--- NY Jets/ Kansas City Over 39
The Over is 8-1 when KC is off 4 consecutive games in which they allowed 6 ypp or more and 6-0 in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, while the Over is 13-3 when the Jets are off 2 consecutive games where they had a TO margin of -2 or worse and 4-1 in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Both teams have given up their share of points this year, as the Chiefs have allowed 27.5 ppg, while the Jets have allowed 24.3 ppg. The Chiefs have not been great on offense this year, but they may get a spark from 3rd string QB Tyler Thigpen, who will be facing the 24th ranked passing defense of the Jets. NY Can score points as they are 8th in the league in scoring at 25.7 ppg and they should have a good day vs. the 31st ranked overall defense of the Chiefs. KC?s offense should be able to get at least 17 in this one while I can see the Jets putting up 27 or more. This game easily flies over the posted total.
Underdog Of The Week--- Cincinnati +9 over Houston
The Texans are 4-15 ATS off a home win and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games in October. Houston Checks in at 2-4 on the season and yet they are huge home favs for their 2nd week in a row. Of the two wins, one was by just 1 point, while the other was by 7 and this team allows nearly 30 ppg on the year. Certainly not good enough numbers to warrant being such a big fav, even though they are facing the 0-7 Bengals. Yes the Bengals are 0-7, but this team has played hard as evidenced by their game vs. Dallas and they were in the Jets game for most of it. Last week they had a topugh go of it vs. Pittsburgh, but Houston is not the Steelers. Last week Houston struggled some with the Lions and I feel the Bengals are better than the Motor City boys and they will be able to keep this game to Under a TD.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Atlanta Under 45.5
The Under is 0-9 in the Falcons last 9 games off a bye and 10-2 in their last 12 on grass fields, while the Under is 17-3 when Philly is off a bye week and 25-7 in the month of October. This OU line seem a bit high considering the Eagles have allowed just 8.8 ppg in their last 9 post bye games and they are facing a QB that has not seen the kind of blitzing schemes he will see today. I really don?t see the Falcons getting double digits in this one so in order for this one to go over the Eagles will have to put 35 plus on the board. They have an offense to do it, but may not get as many chances as the Falcons should be running the ball more in this one and that will help the clock run. I see a 30-7 final in this one.
Buffalo -1 over MIAMI
Buffalo is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. teams with a losing record and 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS win, while Miami is 2-11 ATS at home off 1 or more losses in a row and 6-22-2 ATS in their last 30 vs. AFC East. The Bills are rolling right now as they sit at 5-1 with a 1 game lead over the Pats in the AFC East. The Bills offense has taken off this year as they are 13th in passing and 10th in scoring putting up 24.3 ppg, compared to the 16 ppg, 19 ppg and 1`7 ppg they have put up the last 3 years. The defense has been very good this year for the Bills as they rank 10th overall, 8th vs. the pass and 10th in points allowed at 19.7 ppg. One look at last weeks game vs. the top scoring team in the league (San Diego) will show you just how good this defense is right now. A few weeks back the Dolphins unleashed their wildcat offense on the Pats and it was a huge success, but teams have caught on a bit as the Miami rushing numbers have decreased in each of the last 3 weeks. Miami is week vs. the pass as they rank 27th in that department and should have all sorts of problems vs. the Buffalo passing attack that has taken off. Miami has looked better this year, but Buffalo has the edges on both sides of the ball, plus the ST edge and they have momentum. Too much for Miami to handle here.
Teaser Of The Week--- 3 Team 6 Point Teaser: Philly -3.5, St Louis/ New England Under 48.5 & Cleveland +13
2 UNIT PLAYS
Arizona/ Carolina Over 43
The Over is 23-8 when Arizona has won 2 of their last 3 games and 12-2 after scoring 25+ points in 2 consecutive games, while the Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games in Week 8. The Arizona Cardinals are the top scoring team in the league at 29.5 ppg, but their defense has not been as good as they are allowing 24 ppg thus far. That offense will have a tough test this week vs. the 3rd ranked scoring defense of the Panthers, but I do see them still getting about 21 in this one. Carolina?s offense scores just 21 ppg overall this year, but at home that number jumps to 27 ppg. I see about 48 points in this one.
3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- Cleveland +17, Pittsburgh +7 & Cincinnati +19
1 UNIT PLAY
3 Team 6 Point Teaser--- Oakland/ Baltimore Under 41.5, Arizona/ Carolina Over 37 & San Diego/ New Orleans Over 40
SPORTS ADVISORS
Oakland (2-4, 3-3 ATS) at Baltimore (3-3, 4-2 ATS)
The Raiders, who haven’t won consecutive games since the first week of last December, look to do just that when they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens.
Oakland topped the New York Jets 16-13 in overtime last week, giving the SU winner a 13-2 ATS mark in the Raiders’ last 15 games (5-1 this year). QB JaMarcus Russell (17 of 30, 203 yards, 1 TD) was hardly brilliant but did have a turnover-free game, while the Raiders forced three turnovers, including two Brett Favre INTs. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski won it with a career-best 57-yard field goal.
Baltimore rolled past Miami 27-13 as a three-point road pup to snap a three-game SU slide and a two-game pointspread skid, and the SU winner is now 9-1 ATS in the Ravens’ last 10 games (5-1 this year). QB Joe Flacco (17 of 23, 232 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) and RB Willis McGahee (19 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) had solid games, the Ravens defense gave up just 71 rushing yards and LB Terrell Suggs returned an INT for a score.
Baltimore is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings with Oakland this decade, including a 28-6 home rout two years ago giving 12½ points.
The Raiders are on ATS declines of 6-12 in the Eastern time zone, 8-16 as a non-division road ‘dog, 8-17 in October and 2-7 after a pointspread win. The Ravens are on a 5-2 ATS run overall – all against AFC foes – and are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a non-division home chalk, but they are in a 1-8 ATS rut as a favorite.
The over for Oakland is on tears of 9-3 overall, 8-0 in October and 5-2 on the road, and the over for Baltimore is on streaks of 9-4 overall, 9-3 against the AFC and 5-2 at home. However, in this rivalry, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
San Diego (3-4 SU and ATS) vs. New Orleans (3-4, 4-3 ATS)
(at London)
The Chargers and the Saints, both trying to regain their playoff form, travel across the pond for a non-conference clash at Wembley Stadium.
San Diego managed just seven points in each half at Buffalo last Sunday, losing 23-14 as a one-point ‘dog to give the SU winner a 24-1-1 ATS mark in the Bolts’ last 26 games (6-0-1 ATS this season). QB Philip Rivers (22 of 29, 208 yards, 2 TDs) had decent numbers, but he accounted for all three of his team’s turnovers, with two lost fumbles and a late-game INT with San Diego inside the Bills’ the 10-yard line. The Chargers were outgained 370-263, lost the time-of-possession battle by 11 minutes and forced no turnovers.
New Orleans got belted 30-7 at Carolina as a three-point ‘dog, as the SU winner improved to 16-1 ATS in the Saints’ last 17 games (6-1 this season). QB Drew Brees (21 of 39, 231 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) was mediocre, with his INT leading to a third-quarter TD for Carolina, and the Saints failed to score in the second half.
These teams haven’t met since 2004, when San Diego claimed a 43-17 win as a 6½-point home favorite. It will be the first time Saints QB Drew Brees has faced his former team since the Chargers allowed him to leave as a free agent after the 2005 season.
Despite last week’s setback, the Chargers are still on a lengthy 47-23-3 ATS run overall, and they sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 against losing teams and 20-6-3 after a SU loss, but they are on ATS slides of 1-8 in non-division roadies and 2-5 against the NFC. The Saints are on ATS runs of 4-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a pointspread setback and 9-5 in non-division roadies.
The over for San Diego is on streaks of 15-5 on the road, 7-2 after a SU loss and 11-5 against losing teams, and for New Orleans, the over is on a 9-2-1 stretch overall and is 6-1 in its last seven against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Kansas City (1-5, 2-4 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (3-3 SU and ATS)
The Jets and QB Brett Favre look to get back above .500 when they host the hapless Chiefs in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York is coming off a 16-13 overtime loss at Oakland as a three-point road chalk, scoring just three points in the first three quarters before scrambling to force the extra session. The SU winner is now 7-0 ATS this season for the Jets. Against the Raiders, Favre was below average, going 21 of 38 for just 197 yards, with no TDs and two INTs, as New York lost the turnover battle 3-0 in failing to take advantage of RB Thomas Jones’ 159-yard rushing effort.
Kansas City got shutout for three quarters in last week’s 34-10 blowout loss to Tennessee as a nine-point home underdog. The Chiefs’ QB by committee – Brodie Croyle started but got hurt, then Damon Huard got dinged, bringing on Tyler Thigpen – combined for 214 passing yards as K.C. finished with just 272 total yards, while allowing 455.
Kansas City is on a 3-0 ATS run (2-1 SU) in this series, losing 13-10 in overtime at the end of last season but covering as a four-point road ‘dog.
The Jets are on positive ATS streaks of 5-1 as a non-division home chalk, 6-2 as a favorite of six or more points, 4-1 after a non-cover and 6-2 after a SU loss. The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, but they are on ATS slides of 4-11 overall, 2-9 on grass and 3-7 after a SU loss.
The under for New York is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 8-1 against the AFC and 5-1 at home, and the under is also 10-4 in Kansas City’s last 14 road games. But the over is 12-4 in the Chiefs’ last 16 October contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Buffalo (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Miami (2-4, 3-3 ATS)
The Bills aim to keep their surprising season rolling and remain atop the AFC East standings when they head to South Beach to take on the Dolphins in a divisional battle.
Buffalo came out of its bye week and dropped San Diego 23-14 as a one-point home chalk, bouncing back from a blowout loss at Arizona. QB Trent Edwards, who was knocked out of the Arizona game with a concussion, came back and had a strong outing, completing 25 of 30 passes for 261 yards with a TD and no turnovers, and the Bills forced three turnovers en route to winning the time-of-possession battle by 11 minutes.
Miami tumbled to Baltimore 27-13 as a three-point home favorite, halting a three-game spread-covering streak. QB Chad Pennington (24 of 35, 295 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had good numbers, but his INT was returned for a second-quarter touchdown, and the Dolphins managed just 71 rushing yards.
Buffalo is on a 7-0-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, winning and cashing in both clashes last year, including a 13-10 win at Miami to push as a three-point chalk. Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests in Miami, and the favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight series meetings.
The Bills are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 8-2 in division play, 13-5-1 after a spread-cover, 11-5-1 after a SU win and 39-18-3 against losing teams. The Dolphins are on a batch of ATS skids, including 11-29-1 at home, 2-12-1 in home division games, 6-22-2 overall in AFC East contests and 2-5 after a SU loss.
The under is 10-4 in Buffalo’s last 14 games against losing teams and 7-2 in its last nine on grass, but the over for Miami is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover and 7-3 against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
Tampa Bay (5-2 SU and ATS) at Dallas (4-3, 2-5 ATS)
The flailing Cowboys try to right the ship when they welcome the Buccaneers to Texas Stadium.
Dallas got whacked 34-14 by lowly St. Louis a week ago as a nine-point road chalk for its fourth straight pointspread setback. QB Brad Johnson (17 of 34, 234 yards, 1 TD), the 40-year-old backup subbing for Tony Romo (broken pinkie), threw three INTs, and the Cowboys trailed 21-7 at the end of the first quarter and never drew closer. Dallas lost the turnover battle 4-0 and the defense allowed 160 rushing yards and three TDs to Rams RB Steven Jackson.
Tampa Bay topped Seattle 20-10 last Sunday night but couldn’t get the cash as a 10½-point home favorite. However, the SU winner is still 22-2 ATS in the Bucs’ last 24 games. Against the Seahawks, QB Jeff Garcia (27 of 36, 310 yards, 1 TD) was solid, and the Buccaneers yielded just 176 total yards while rolling up a whopping 23-minute edge in time of possession.
Tampa is 3-1 SU in four meetings this decade against Dallas, but the teams have split the cash in those contests, with the host covering each time. Most recently, the Cowboys rolled 38-10 in November 2006 as a 12½-point home chalk.
The Cowboys are 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 as a non-division home favorite, but otherwise they are on a bevy of ATS downfalls, including 0-5 at home, 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-9 against NFC foes, 1-7 after a non-cover and 1-5 against winning teams. Conversely, the Bucs are on positive ATS stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 against the NFC, but they are in a 5-13 ATS slide as a non-division road ‘dog.
The over for Dallas has cashed in four straight overall and is on additional runs of 7-1 in October, 4-1 on grass and 4-1 against the NFC, and the over has been the play in six of Tampa Bay’s last seven roadies.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Atlanta (4-2 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (3-3, 4-2 ATS)
The Falcons will try to keep their stunning turnaround going when they travel to Lincoln Financial Field for a meeting with the Eagles.
Atlanta took last week off after its shocking, last-second 22-20 victory over Chicago as a three-point home pup Oct. 12, giving the SU winner a 15-1 ATS mark in the Falcons’ last 16 contests. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (22 of 30, 301 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had his breakout game, which included leading a two-play, six-second drive that ended with Jason Elam kicking the game-winning field goal as time expired after the Bears had taken a 20-19 lead on a TD with just 11 seconds remaining.
Philadelphia also had its bye last week after dropping San Francisco 40-26 giving 4½ points. The Eagles forced three turnovers (two INTs, one fumble) en route to 23 unanswered fourth-quarter points, erasing a 26-17 deficit. QB Donovan McNabb (23 of 36, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a good enough day to help Philly halt a two-game SU and ATS hiccup.
Atlanta has cashed in its last two meetings against Philadelphia (1-1 SU), snapping a 6-0-1 ATS run by the Eagles in this rivalry. In the most recent meeting two seasons ago, the Eagles won 24-17 but came up short as a nine-point home chalk.
The Falcons are on ATS tears of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a bye, 11-4 on grass, 7-3 as a non-division ‘dog and 5-2 against the NFC. The Eagles are 9-3 ATS the last 12 years after their bye and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against NFC foes, but they have failed to cash in nine of their last 13 home starts.
The over for Atlanta is on a 10-3 spree overall, but the under is on runs of 33-13-1 on the highway and 9-1-1 coming off a bye. For Philadelphia, the under is on stretches of 5-0 at home, 15-2 after a bye and 14-6 on grass. Finally, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five head-to-head battles in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
St. Louis (2-4 SU and ATS) at New England (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
The Rams ride their two-game winning streak into Gillette Stadium for a meeting against the defending AFC champion Patriots.
St. Louis pummeled Dallas 34-14 as a heavy nine-point home underdog a week ago, winning and cashing for the second straight week and giving the SU winner a 16-1 ATS mark in the Rams’ last 17 games (6-0 ATS this season). QB Marc Bulger (13 of 18, 163 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had modest stats, but that’s mostly because RB Steven Jackson blew up for 160 rushing yards and three TDs on 25 carries, including a 56-yard scoring jaunt. St. Louis also won the turnover battle, 4-0.
New England rumbled over Denver 41-7 on Monday night as a three-point home favorite, bouncing back from a 30-10 beatdown at San Diego. The Pats were bolstered by forcing five turnovers – including four in the first half – and kept Denver from scoring until a meaningless fourth-quarter TD. QB Matt Cassel (18 of 24, 185 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient and effective, and RB Sammy Morris racked up 138 yards, all in the first half before leaving with an injury.
In three meetings this decade, including the Super Bowl after the 2001 season, New England is 3-0 ATS against St. Louis (2-1 SU), though the two teams haven’t met since the Patriots’ 40-22 road win as a two-point road pup in 2004. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes.
Despite the Rams’ recent success, they still carry negative ATS trends of 2-7 overall, 2-11 in the Eastern time zone, 2-10 against winning teams and 3-6 against AFC foes. Likewise, the Patriots are on ATS skids of 3-9 overall, 0-5 after a spread-cover, 0-5 against losing teams, 1-8 after a SU win and 1-7 at home.
For St. Louis, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall and 5-1 against winning teams, but the under is on 8-3 in its last 11 roadies. Meanwhile, the under for New England is on streaks of 8-3-2 overall, 6-1-2 at home and 4-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Arizona (4-2 SU and ATS) at Carolina (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS)
The Cardinals gun for their third straight victory when they make the lengthy trek to Charlotte to face the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
Arizona, which had its bye last week, beat Dallas 30-24 in overtime two weeks ago as a 4½-point home ‘dog, winning on a short TD return of a blocked point on the only possession in the extra session. That made the SU winner 14-1 ATS in the Cards’ last 15 starts. Arizona finished with 276 total yards, while allowing 374, and they lost the turnover battle 3-1, but they had two special teams TDs – a 93-yard kickoff return to open the game, and the blocked-punt TD to end it.
Carolina ripped New Orleans 30-7 as a three-point home chalk last week, making the SU winner 21-1-1 ATS in the Panthers’ last 23 games (6-0-1 ATS this year) dating to the 2007 season opener. QB Jake Delhomme (14 of 22, 195 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) and WR Steve Smith (6 catches, 122 yards, 1 TD) lead the way, and the Panthers won the turnover battle 2-0 and shutout the Saints in the second half.
Carolina is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, following a 3-0 ATS stretch by Arizona. Last year, Carolina posted a 25-10 road victory catching six points.
The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 5-1 ATS in their last six against winning teams, but they are on pointspread slides of 8-16 in the Eastern time zone and 1-4 in their last five on the highway. The Panthers, meanwhile, are on ATS runs of 8-3-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 4-1-1 against winning teams and 6-2-1 against NFC opponents.
The over for Arizona is on streaks of 35-17 overall, 38-15 on the road, 5-1 against winning teams, and 7-2 in NFC play. On the flip side, the under for Carolina is on a 6-0 tear and is on further stretches of 5-0 in conference play, 5-1 against winning teams and 22-8-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
Washington (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Detroit (0-6, 2-4 ATS)
The Redskins hope to get their sluggish offense back on track with a trip to Ford Field to face the winless Lions.
Washington bounced back from a stunning 19-17 home loss to St. Louis by holding off Cleveland 14-11, but the Redskins failed cover again, this time as a seven-point favorite, marking the first time in 14 games that the winner failed to cash in a Washington game. QB Jason Campbell (14 of 23, 164 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) wasn’t particularly impressive against the Browns, but RB Clinton Portis was, ripping off 175 rushing yards and a TD on 27 carries, and the defense allowed just 236 total yards.
Detroit’s woes continued in last week’s 28-21 loss at Houston, but as an 11-point pup, the Lions cashed for the second straight week after an 0-4 ATS start to 2008. QB Dan Orlovsky completed just 12 of 25 passes, but he made the most of them, netting 265 yards and a TD -- on a 96-yard hookup with Calvin Johnson. The Lions had no turnovers, but they lost the time of possession battle, 40:04-19:56.
Washington has won and covered the last two in this series, including a 34-3 rout last year as a four-point home favorite. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, but the home team is on a 6-1 ATS streak.
The Redskins are on ATS runs of 4-1 against the NFC, 6-2 after a SU win and 5-2 as a road favorite, but they are on a 1-6 ATS slide against losing teams. Meanwhile, despite back-to-back spread-covers the last two weeks, Detroit still harbors nothing but negative ATS trends, including 3-11 overall, 9-19-1 in NFC play, 8-18 as a single-digit ‘dog, 1-5 at home, 3-8 after a SU loss and 5-11-1 after a spread-cover.
The under for Washington is on a 4-1 run, and the under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. But the over has cashed in nine of Detroit’s last 12 games overall and is on further runs for the Lions of 4-1 at home and 5-0 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
Cleveland (2-4, 4-2 ATS) at Jacksonville (3-3, 2-4 ATS)
The rested Jaguars will attempt to get back above .500 when they take on the Browns at Alltel Stadium.
Jacksonville dumped Denver 24-17 two weeks ago as a 3½-point road ‘dog before taking last week off. QB David Garrard (25 of 34, 276 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (22 carries, 125 yards, 2 TDs) led the way, but the Jags mostly benefited from forcing three first-half turnovers, which they converted into 10 points.
A week after a shocking blowout home win over the Giants, Cleveland had a dismal offensive effort in a 14-11 loss to Washington, but the Browns covered as a seven-point road pup for their third straight ATS win. QB Derek Anderson completed just 14 of 37 passes for 136 yards and a TD, and though Cleveland had no turnovers, it was still outgained 351-236.
Jacksonville is 6-2 SU in the last eight clashes with Cleveland dating to 1999, but the two teams have split the cash in those contests. In their last meeting in 2005, the Jags scored a 20-14 road win laying three points. In fact, the visitor is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS at Alltel this season and are on additional pointspread skids of 1-6 on grass, 1-4 after a SU win and 2-5 against losing teams. The Browns, meanwhile, are on ATS tears of 16-5 overall, 8-2 after a SU loss, 14-4 on grass and 8-3 after a spread-cover.
For Jacksonville, the over is on streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 10-3-2 in AFC contests and 10-4 coming off the bye. On the flip side, the under for Cleveland is on a 10-2 overall streak, including 6-1 against AFC opponents, 5-1 on the highway and 9-2 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
N.Y. Giants (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh (5-1, 3-3 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl-champion Giants step outside the NFC for a non-conference clash against the Steelers at Heinz Field.
New York beat San Francisco 29-17 last Sunday, narrowly grabbing the cash on a late safety as a healthy 10-point home favorite to give the SU winner a 16-2 ATS mark in the Giants’ last 18 games (5-1 this season). QB Eli Manning (16 of 31, 161 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had his second straight sub-par game as the Giants finished with just 273 total yards. But New York allowed only 253 yards and won the turnover battle, 3-0.
Pittsburgh pounded Cincinnati 38-10 laying nine points on the road to win and cover for the second straight week. QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 28, 216 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) played well, and backup RB Mewelde Moore (20 carries, 120 yards, 2 TDs) had a big rushing day and also had a TD catch. The Steelers defense allowed just 212 total yards.
These two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Pittsburgh won 33-30 but New York got the cash as a 10-point pup.
The Giants are on a 20-8 ATS spree and sport additional positive ATS streaks of 6-0 against winning teams, 8-2 on grass, 7-2 after a SU win, 7-2 after a spread-cover and 20-8 in roadies, though they get upset in their most recent road trip to Cleveland. The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the NFC, but they are on pointspread dips of 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 after a spread-cover.
The over is 4-1 in New York’s last five overall, but the under is 9-4 in its last 13 road games. The over for the Steelers is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 42-15-2 at Heinz Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Seattle (1-5, 2-4 ATS) at San Francisco (2-5 SU and ATS)
The woeful Seahawks, who reached the playoffs last year but have been besieged by QB injuries this season, travel down the Pacific Coast for an NFC West matchup with the 49ers at Monster Park.
Seattle lost to Tampa Bay 20-10, but its lone touchdown in the fourth quarter allowed the team to cover as a 10½-point road ‘dog. Despite that result, the SU winner is still 23-1 ATS in the Seahawks’ last 24 contests dating to the 2007 season opener. Against the Bucs, Seattle got outgained 402-176, and backup QB Seneca Wallace (12 of 23, 73 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) struggled in place of Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee), who remains out.
San Francisco lost to the New York Giants 29-17, failing to cover as a 10-point underdog by taking a safety late in the game, meaning the SU winner has now covered in each of the Niners’ last 22 games gave the SU winner a whopping 22-0 ATS record in the 49ers’ last 22 starts. QB J.T. O’Sullivan (16 of 28, 256 yards, 1 TD) continued to struggle, committing all three of his team’s turnovers (two INTs, 1 fumble), with the fumble booted out of the back of the end zone for the Giants’ spread-covering safety.
San Francisco posted a 33-30 overtime win last month at Seattle as a 6½-point road pup, after the Seahawks easily won and cashed in both of last year’s meetings.
The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven division games, but otherwise are on ATS skids of 2-5 overall, 0-5 after a spread-cover, 1-5 on the highway and 5-21 in October. The 49ers haven’t been any better at the betting window, carrying negative ATS tends of 0-4 overall, 0-4-1 in home division games, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-4 after a SU loss, 4-10 at Monster Park and 4-12 in NFC play.
The under is 4-1 in the last five clashes between these two, and it is 10-3 in San Fran’s last 13 division contests. But the over for Seattle is on runs of 7-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 against NFC foes, 4-1 on the road and 23-10-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Cincinnati (0-7, 2-5 ATS) at Houston (2-4, 1-5 ATS)
The freefalling Bengals head to the Lone Star State in search of their first win when they face the Texans at Reliant Stadium.
Cincinnati is coming off a 38-10 loss to Pittsburgh as a nine-point home ‘dog, failing to cover for the second straight week. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, continuing to sub for the injured Carson Palmer (elbow), generated just 164 passing yards, and the Bengals finished with a meager 212 total yards while allowing 375.
Houston held off Detroit 28-21 for its second straight victory, but the Texans couldn’t cash as 11-point favorites, their third straight non-cover. QB Matt Schaub (26 of 31, 267 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs) had a solid game, but the huge key was time of possession, as Houston doubled Detroit by holding the ball for 40 minutes.
These teams have met just three times, with Cincy going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS).
The Bengals are in ATS ruts of 0-5 against the AFC, 2-10-1 in October and 1-5 against losing teams. The Texans are also on a handful of pointspread slides, including 1-5 overall, 0-8 in October, 1-4 against the AFC, 1-4 after a non-cover and 10-22 after a SU win.
The under is 9-4 in Cincinnati’s last 13 games, but the over is 6-0 this season for Houston and is on additional runs for the Texans of 19-7-1 overall, 7-0 on grass, 7-0 against AFC opponents, 4-0 at home and 11-5-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Central Florida (2-4, 2-2-1 ATS) at (22) Tulsa (7-0, 5-1 ATS)
Central Florida is the latest team that will try to slow down the nation’s most prolific offense when it visits 22nd-ranked Tulsa in a rare Sunday night game between Conference USA rivals.
Tulsa ripped UTEP 77-35 last Saturday, piling up a ridiculous 791 total yards in easily covering as a 20½-point home chalk. The Golden Hurricane have won eight straight games (6-1 ATS) dating back to a 63-7 rout of Bowling Green in last year’s GMAC Bowl, outgaining all eight opponents by at least 100 yards, including a whopping 438-yard edge last week against UTEP.
Tulsa leads the nation in scoring offense (56.6 points per game) and total offense (624.7 total yards per game), and behind QB David Johnson (69 percent completion rate, 2,397 yards, 31 TDs, 8 INTs), the Golden Hurricane are fifth nationally in passing (357 ypg) and first in passing TDs.
Central Florida has been idle since Oct. 11, when it went to Miami and lost 20-14, but covered as a 17-point road underdog. The Golden Knights have lost four of their last five overall, and they’ve been outgained in all five contests. UCF averages just 17.7 points per game, and its 248.3 total ypg is worst in the nation, in contrast to Tulsa’s top-ranked offense.
Central Florida beat the Golden Hurricane twice last year by near identical scores, winning 44-23 as a 2½-point home favorite in October, then prevailing 44-25 as a 7½-point home chalk in the Conference USA championship game in December. The SU winner has cashed in all three series meetings between these schools.
The Golden Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams, but they’re 11-23-1 ATS in their past 35 road games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on artificial turf. Conversely, Tulsa sports positive pointspread runs of 5-0 at home and 12-5 after a spread-cover, but the Hurricane are 2-6 ATS in their last eight October contests.
For Central Florida, the under is on runs of 9-4 overall, 4-1 in conference and 4-0 in October. But as expected, high-powered Tulsa is in the mist of over runs of 4-1 overall and 6-0-1 on turf. Lastly, despite combined totals of 67 and 69 points, last year’s two meetings between these schools stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA
WORLD SERIES
Tampa Bay (8-6) at Philadelphia (9-3)
The Phillies look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series tonight when they send Joe Blanton (9-12, 4.69 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park for Game 5, while the Rays will counter with Andy Sonnanstine (15-9, 4.32 ERA).
The teams waited out a 90-minute rain delay prior to the start of Game 3 on Saturday, then played a classic, with Philadelphia pulling out a 5-4 victory on a bases-loaded infield single by Carlos Ruiz with no outs in the bottom of the ninth to take control of this best-of-7 series.
The Phillies are 23-6 in their last 29 at Citizen Bank Park (5-0 in the playoffs), and they’re on additional hot streaks of 37-16 overall, 13-3 on Sundays, 26-10 versus righty starters, 20-7 against winning teams, 6-0 with Blanton on the hill overall and 5-0 when Blanton starts at home. However, Charlie Manuel’s club is still only 19-37 in its last 55 interleague games.
The Rays are still on runs of 6-3 in interleague play, 8-3 against the N.L. East, 5-2 in National League ballparks and 35-17 versus right-handed starters. They’re also 22-12 with Sonnanstine on the hill this year and 5-0 in his last five starts against N.L. foes.
Despite being down 2-1 in this series, Tampa Bay has still won nine of the last 13 meetings with Philadelphia.
Sonnanstine pitched the Rays 13-4 blowout win over the Red Sox in his most recent outing on Oct. 14, giving up four runs (three earned) on six hits in 7 1/3 innings. He’s 2-0 with 3.46 ERA in his first two career postseason starts, both of which came on the road. Including those two outings, Sonnanstine is 8-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 18 starts on the highway this year. Tonight marks his first career start against the Phillies.
Blanton last pitched 13 days ago at Dodger Stadium, getting a no-decision in his team’s come-from-behind 7-5 victory over Los Angeles in Game 4 of the NLCS. In that contest, the burly right-hander gave up three runs on seven hits and four walks in five innings. Including a 6-2 series-clinching victory over the Brewers in the divisional round, Blanton is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two October efforts.
Blanton, who was acquired from the A’s in July, is 5-0 with 4.08 ERA in 15 starts with Philadelphia, 11 of which the Phillies have won. At Citizens Bank Park, he’s 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA. Finally, Blanton faced the Rays eight times during his tenure in Oakland, going 2-3 with a hefty 6.05 ERA.
The under is 4-1 in Sonnanstine’s last five on Sunday, but the over is 5-2 in Blanton’s last seven trips to the mound overall.
The under is 7-3-3 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams, including 2-0-1 in this series. Additionally, the under is on runs of 4-0-1 for the Rays overall, 8-3-1 for the Phillies overall, 9-3-1 for the Phillies in the playoffs, 9-4-1 for the Phillies against right-handed starters and 9-2-1 for the Phillies in interleague play. Conversely, the over is 8-3-1 in Tampa’s last 12 road games and 25-8-2 in its last 35 in N.L. parks.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Oakland (2-4, 3-3 ATS) at Baltimore (3-3, 4-2 ATS)
The Raiders, who haven’t won consecutive games since the first week of last December, look to do just that when they travel to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Ravens.
Oakland topped the New York Jets 16-13 in overtime last week, giving the SU winner a 13-2 ATS mark in the Raiders’ last 15 games (5-1 this year). QB JaMarcus Russell (17 of 30, 203 yards, 1 TD) was hardly brilliant but did have a turnover-free game, while the Raiders forced three turnovers, including two Brett Favre INTs. Kicker Sebastian Janikowski won it with a career-best 57-yard field goal.
Baltimore rolled past Miami 27-13 as a three-point road pup to snap a three-game SU slide and a two-game pointspread skid, and the SU winner is now 9-1 ATS in the Ravens’ last 10 games (5-1 this year). QB Joe Flacco (17 of 23, 232 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) and RB Willis McGahee (19 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) had solid games, the Ravens defense gave up just 71 rushing yards and LB Terrell Suggs returned an INT for a score.
Baltimore is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings with Oakland this decade, including a 28-6 home rout two years ago giving 12½ points.
The Raiders are on ATS declines of 6-12 in the Eastern time zone, 8-16 as a non-division road ‘dog, 8-17 in October and 2-7 after a pointspread win. The Ravens are on a 5-2 ATS run overall – all against AFC foes – and are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a non-division home chalk, but they are in a 1-8 ATS rut as a favorite.
The over for Oakland is on tears of 9-3 overall, 8-0 in October and 5-2 on the road, and the over for Baltimore is on streaks of 9-4 overall, 9-3 against the AFC and 5-2 at home. However, in this rivalry, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
San Diego (3-4 SU and ATS) vs. New Orleans (3-4, 4-3 ATS)
(at London)
The Chargers and the Saints, both trying to regain their playoff form, travel across the pond for a non-conference clash at Wembley Stadium.
San Diego managed just seven points in each half at Buffalo last Sunday, losing 23-14 as a one-point ‘dog to give the SU winner a 24-1-1 ATS mark in the Bolts’ last 26 games (6-0-1 ATS this season). QB Philip Rivers (22 of 29, 208 yards, 2 TDs) had decent numbers, but he accounted for all three of his team’s turnovers, with two lost fumbles and a late-game INT with San Diego inside the Bills’ the 10-yard line. The Chargers were outgained 370-263, lost the time-of-possession battle by 11 minutes and forced no turnovers.
New Orleans got belted 30-7 at Carolina as a three-point ‘dog, as the SU winner improved to 16-1 ATS in the Saints’ last 17 games (6-1 this season). QB Drew Brees (21 of 39, 231 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT) was mediocre, with his INT leading to a third-quarter TD for Carolina, and the Saints failed to score in the second half.
These teams haven’t met since 2004, when San Diego claimed a 43-17 win as a 6½-point home favorite. It will be the first time Saints QB Drew Brees has faced his former team since the Chargers allowed him to leave as a free agent after the 2005 season.
Despite last week’s setback, the Chargers are still on a lengthy 47-23-3 ATS run overall, and they sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 after a non-cover, 6-1 against losing teams and 20-6-3 after a SU loss, but they are on ATS slides of 1-8 in non-division roadies and 2-5 against the NFC. The Saints are on ATS runs of 4-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a pointspread setback and 9-5 in non-division roadies.
The over for San Diego is on streaks of 15-5 on the road, 7-2 after a SU loss and 11-5 against losing teams, and for New Orleans, the over is on a 9-2-1 stretch overall and is 6-1 in its last seven against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Kansas City (1-5, 2-4 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (3-3 SU and ATS)
The Jets and QB Brett Favre look to get back above .500 when they host the hapless Chiefs in East Rutherford, N.J.
New York is coming off a 16-13 overtime loss at Oakland as a three-point road chalk, scoring just three points in the first three quarters before scrambling to force the extra session. The SU winner is now 7-0 ATS this season for the Jets. Against the Raiders, Favre was below average, going 21 of 38 for just 197 yards, with no TDs and two INTs, as New York lost the turnover battle 3-0 in failing to take advantage of RB Thomas Jones’ 159-yard rushing effort.
Kansas City got shutout for three quarters in last week’s 34-10 blowout loss to Tennessee as a nine-point home underdog. The Chiefs’ QB by committee – Brodie Croyle started but got hurt, then Damon Huard got dinged, bringing on Tyler Thigpen – combined for 214 passing yards as K.C. finished with just 272 total yards, while allowing 455.
Kansas City is on a 3-0 ATS run (2-1 SU) in this series, losing 13-10 in overtime at the end of last season but covering as a four-point road ‘dog.
The Jets are on positive ATS streaks of 5-1 as a non-division home chalk, 6-2 as a favorite of six or more points, 4-1 after a non-cover and 6-2 after a SU loss. The Chiefs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, but they are on ATS slides of 4-11 overall, 2-9 on grass and 3-7 after a SU loss.
The under for New York is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 8-1 against the AFC and 5-1 at home, and the under is also 10-4 in Kansas City’s last 14 road games. But the over is 12-4 in the Chiefs’ last 16 October contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Buffalo (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Miami (2-4, 3-3 ATS)
The Bills aim to keep their surprising season rolling and remain atop the AFC East standings when they head to South Beach to take on the Dolphins in a divisional battle.
Buffalo came out of its bye week and dropped San Diego 23-14 as a one-point home chalk, bouncing back from a blowout loss at Arizona. QB Trent Edwards, who was knocked out of the Arizona game with a concussion, came back and had a strong outing, completing 25 of 30 passes for 261 yards with a TD and no turnovers, and the Bills forced three turnovers en route to winning the time-of-possession battle by 11 minutes.
Miami tumbled to Baltimore 27-13 as a three-point home favorite, halting a three-game spread-covering streak. QB Chad Pennington (24 of 35, 295 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had good numbers, but his INT was returned for a second-quarter touchdown, and the Dolphins managed just 71 rushing yards.
Buffalo is on a 7-0-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, winning and cashing in both clashes last year, including a 13-10 win at Miami to push as a three-point chalk. Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six contests in Miami, and the favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight series meetings.
The Bills are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 8-2 in division play, 13-5-1 after a spread-cover, 11-5-1 after a SU win and 39-18-3 against losing teams. The Dolphins are on a batch of ATS skids, including 11-29-1 at home, 2-12-1 in home division games, 6-22-2 overall in AFC East contests and 2-5 after a SU loss.
The under is 10-4 in Buffalo’s last 14 games against losing teams and 7-2 in its last nine on grass, but the over for Miami is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 7-0 after a SU loss, 4-0 after a non-cover and 7-3 against the AFC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
Tampa Bay (5-2 SU and ATS) at Dallas (4-3, 2-5 ATS)
The flailing Cowboys try to right the ship when they welcome the Buccaneers to Texas Stadium.
Dallas got whacked 34-14 by lowly St. Louis a week ago as a nine-point road chalk for its fourth straight pointspread setback. QB Brad Johnson (17 of 34, 234 yards, 1 TD), the 40-year-old backup subbing for Tony Romo (broken pinkie), threw three INTs, and the Cowboys trailed 21-7 at the end of the first quarter and never drew closer. Dallas lost the turnover battle 4-0 and the defense allowed 160 rushing yards and three TDs to Rams RB Steven Jackson.
Tampa Bay topped Seattle 20-10 last Sunday night but couldn’t get the cash as a 10½-point home favorite. However, the SU winner is still 22-2 ATS in the Bucs’ last 24 games. Against the Seahawks, QB Jeff Garcia (27 of 36, 310 yards, 1 TD) was solid, and the Buccaneers yielded just 176 total yards while rolling up a whopping 23-minute edge in time of possession.
Tampa is 3-1 SU in four meetings this decade against Dallas, but the teams have split the cash in those contests, with the host covering each time. Most recently, the Cowboys rolled 38-10 in November 2006 as a 12½-point home chalk.
The Cowboys are 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 as a non-division home favorite, but otherwise they are on a bevy of ATS downfalls, including 0-5 at home, 0-4 after a SU loss, 1-9 against NFC foes, 1-7 after a non-cover and 1-5 against winning teams. Conversely, the Bucs are on positive ATS stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against winning teams and 4-1 against the NFC, but they are in a 5-13 ATS slide as a non-division road ‘dog.
The over for Dallas has cashed in four straight overall and is on additional runs of 7-1 in October, 4-1 on grass and 4-1 against the NFC, and the over has been the play in six of Tampa Bay’s last seven roadies.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Atlanta (4-2 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (3-3, 4-2 ATS)
The Falcons will try to keep their stunning turnaround going when they travel to Lincoln Financial Field for a meeting with the Eagles.
Atlanta took last week off after its shocking, last-second 22-20 victory over Chicago as a three-point home pup Oct. 12, giving the SU winner a 15-1 ATS mark in the Falcons’ last 16 contests. Rookie QB Matt Ryan (22 of 30, 301 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had his breakout game, which included leading a two-play, six-second drive that ended with Jason Elam kicking the game-winning field goal as time expired after the Bears had taken a 20-19 lead on a TD with just 11 seconds remaining.
Philadelphia also had its bye last week after dropping San Francisco 40-26 giving 4½ points. The Eagles forced three turnovers (two INTs, one fumble) en route to 23 unanswered fourth-quarter points, erasing a 26-17 deficit. QB Donovan McNabb (23 of 36, 280 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a good enough day to help Philly halt a two-game SU and ATS hiccup.
Atlanta has cashed in its last two meetings against Philadelphia (1-1 SU), snapping a 6-0-1 ATS run by the Eagles in this rivalry. In the most recent meeting two seasons ago, the Eagles won 24-17 but came up short as a nine-point home chalk.
The Falcons are on ATS tears of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a bye, 11-4 on grass, 7-3 as a non-division ‘dog and 5-2 against the NFC. The Eagles are 9-3 ATS the last 12 years after their bye and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven against NFC foes, but they have failed to cash in nine of their last 13 home starts.
The over for Atlanta is on a 10-3 spree overall, but the under is on runs of 33-13-1 on the highway and 9-1-1 coming off a bye. For Philadelphia, the under is on stretches of 5-0 at home, 15-2 after a bye and 14-6 on grass. Finally, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five head-to-head battles in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
St. Louis (2-4 SU and ATS) at New England (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
The Rams ride their two-game winning streak into Gillette Stadium for a meeting against the defending AFC champion Patriots.
St. Louis pummeled Dallas 34-14 as a heavy nine-point home underdog a week ago, winning and cashing for the second straight week and giving the SU winner a 16-1 ATS mark in the Rams’ last 17 games (6-0 ATS this season). QB Marc Bulger (13 of 18, 163 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had modest stats, but that’s mostly because RB Steven Jackson blew up for 160 rushing yards and three TDs on 25 carries, including a 56-yard scoring jaunt. St. Louis also won the turnover battle, 4-0.
New England rumbled over Denver 41-7 on Monday night as a three-point home favorite, bouncing back from a 30-10 beatdown at San Diego. The Pats were bolstered by forcing five turnovers – including four in the first half – and kept Denver from scoring until a meaningless fourth-quarter TD. QB Matt Cassel (18 of 24, 185 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient and effective, and RB Sammy Morris racked up 138 yards, all in the first half before leaving with an injury.
In three meetings this decade, including the Super Bowl after the 2001 season, New England is 3-0 ATS against St. Louis (2-1 SU), though the two teams haven’t met since the Patriots’ 40-22 road win as a two-point road pup in 2004. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes.
Despite the Rams’ recent success, they still carry negative ATS trends of 2-7 overall, 2-11 in the Eastern time zone, 2-10 against winning teams and 3-6 against AFC foes. Likewise, the Patriots are on ATS skids of 3-9 overall, 0-5 after a spread-cover, 0-5 against losing teams, 1-8 after a SU win and 1-7 at home.
For St. Louis, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall and 5-1 against winning teams, but the under is on 8-3 in its last 11 roadies. Meanwhile, the under for New England is on streaks of 8-3-2 overall, 6-1-2 at home and 4-1 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Arizona (4-2 SU and ATS) at Carolina (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS)
The Cardinals gun for their third straight victory when they make the lengthy trek to Charlotte to face the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
Arizona, which had its bye last week, beat Dallas 30-24 in overtime two weeks ago as a 4½-point home ‘dog, winning on a short TD return of a blocked point on the only possession in the extra session. That made the SU winner 14-1 ATS in the Cards’ last 15 starts. Arizona finished with 276 total yards, while allowing 374, and they lost the turnover battle 3-1, but they had two special teams TDs – a 93-yard kickoff return to open the game, and the blocked-punt TD to end it.
Carolina ripped New Orleans 30-7 as a three-point home chalk last week, making the SU winner 21-1-1 ATS in the Panthers’ last 23 games (6-0-1 ATS this year) dating to the 2007 season opener. QB Jake Delhomme (14 of 22, 195 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) and WR Steve Smith (6 catches, 122 yards, 1 TD) lead the way, and the Panthers won the turnover battle 2-0 and shutout the Saints in the second half.
Carolina is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, following a 3-0 ATS stretch by Arizona. Last year, Carolina posted a 25-10 road victory catching six points.
The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 5-1 ATS in their last six against winning teams, but they are on pointspread slides of 8-16 in the Eastern time zone and 1-4 in their last five on the highway. The Panthers, meanwhile, are on ATS runs of 8-3-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 4-1-1 against winning teams and 6-2-1 against NFC opponents.
The over for Arizona is on streaks of 35-17 overall, 38-15 on the road, 5-1 against winning teams, and 7-2 in NFC play. On the flip side, the under for Carolina is on a 6-0 tear and is on further stretches of 5-0 in conference play, 5-1 against winning teams and 22-8-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
Washington (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Detroit (0-6, 2-4 ATS)
The Redskins hope to get their sluggish offense back on track with a trip to Ford Field to face the winless Lions.
Washington bounced back from a stunning 19-17 home loss to St. Louis by holding off Cleveland 14-11, but the Redskins failed cover again, this time as a seven-point favorite, marking the first time in 14 games that the winner failed to cash in a Washington game. QB Jason Campbell (14 of 23, 164 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) wasn’t particularly impressive against the Browns, but RB Clinton Portis was, ripping off 175 rushing yards and a TD on 27 carries, and the defense allowed just 236 total yards.
Detroit’s woes continued in last week’s 28-21 loss at Houston, but as an 11-point pup, the Lions cashed for the second straight week after an 0-4 ATS start to 2008. QB Dan Orlovsky completed just 12 of 25 passes, but he made the most of them, netting 265 yards and a TD -- on a 96-yard hookup with Calvin Johnson. The Lions had no turnovers, but they lost the time of possession battle, 40:04-19:56.
Washington has won and covered the last two in this series, including a 34-3 rout last year as a four-point home favorite. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, but the home team is on a 6-1 ATS streak.
The Redskins are on ATS runs of 4-1 against the NFC, 6-2 after a SU win and 5-2 as a road favorite, but they are on a 1-6 ATS slide against losing teams. Meanwhile, despite back-to-back spread-covers the last two weeks, Detroit still harbors nothing but negative ATS trends, including 3-11 overall, 9-19-1 in NFC play, 8-18 as a single-digit ‘dog, 1-5 at home, 3-8 after a SU loss and 5-11-1 after a spread-cover.
The under for Washington is on a 4-1 run, and the under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. But the over has cashed in nine of Detroit’s last 12 games overall and is on further runs for the Lions of 4-1 at home and 5-0 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
Cleveland (2-4, 4-2 ATS) at Jacksonville (3-3, 2-4 ATS)
The rested Jaguars will attempt to get back above .500 when they take on the Browns at Alltel Stadium.
Jacksonville dumped Denver 24-17 two weeks ago as a 3½-point road ‘dog before taking last week off. QB David Garrard (25 of 34, 276 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (22 carries, 125 yards, 2 TDs) led the way, but the Jags mostly benefited from forcing three first-half turnovers, which they converted into 10 points.
A week after a shocking blowout home win over the Giants, Cleveland had a dismal offensive effort in a 14-11 loss to Washington, but the Browns covered as a seven-point road pup for their third straight ATS win. QB Derek Anderson completed just 14 of 37 passes for 136 yards and a TD, and though Cleveland had no turnovers, it was still outgained 351-236.
Jacksonville is 6-2 SU in the last eight clashes with Cleveland dating to 1999, but the two teams have split the cash in those contests. In their last meeting in 2005, the Jags scored a 20-14 road win laying three points. In fact, the visitor is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
The Jaguars are 0-3 ATS at Alltel this season and are on additional pointspread skids of 1-6 on grass, 1-4 after a SU win and 2-5 against losing teams. The Browns, meanwhile, are on ATS tears of 16-5 overall, 8-2 after a SU loss, 14-4 on grass and 8-3 after a spread-cover.
For Jacksonville, the over is on streaks of 19-7-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 10-3-2 in AFC contests and 10-4 coming off the bye. On the flip side, the under for Cleveland is on a 10-2 overall streak, including 6-1 against AFC opponents, 5-1 on the highway and 9-2 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
N.Y. Giants (5-1, 4-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh (5-1, 3-3 ATS)
The defending Super Bowl-champion Giants step outside the NFC for a non-conference clash against the Steelers at Heinz Field.
New York beat San Francisco 29-17 last Sunday, narrowly grabbing the cash on a late safety as a healthy 10-point home favorite to give the SU winner a 16-2 ATS mark in the Giants’ last 18 games (5-1 this season). QB Eli Manning (16 of 31, 161 yards, 1 TD, no turnovers) had his second straight sub-par game as the Giants finished with just 273 total yards. But New York allowed only 253 yards and won the turnover battle, 3-0.
Pittsburgh pounded Cincinnati 38-10 laying nine points on the road to win and cover for the second straight week. QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 of 28, 216 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) played well, and backup RB Mewelde Moore (20 carries, 120 yards, 2 TDs) had a big rushing day and also had a TD catch. The Steelers defense allowed just 212 total yards.
These two teams haven’t met since 2004, when Pittsburgh won 33-30 but New York got the cash as a 10-point pup.
The Giants are on a 20-8 ATS spree and sport additional positive ATS streaks of 6-0 against winning teams, 8-2 on grass, 7-2 after a SU win, 7-2 after a spread-cover and 20-8 in roadies, though they get upset in their most recent road trip to Cleveland. The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the NFC, but they are on pointspread dips of 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 after a spread-cover.
The over is 4-1 in New York’s last five overall, but the under is 9-4 in its last 13 road games. The over for the Steelers is on stretches of 8-2 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 42-15-2 at Heinz Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Seattle (1-5, 2-4 ATS) at San Francisco (2-5 SU and ATS)
The woeful Seahawks, who reached the playoffs last year but have been besieged by QB injuries this season, travel down the Pacific Coast for an NFC West matchup with the 49ers at Monster Park.
Seattle lost to Tampa Bay 20-10, but its lone touchdown in the fourth quarter allowed the team to cover as a 10½-point road ‘dog. Despite that result, the SU winner is still 23-1 ATS in the Seahawks’ last 24 contests dating to the 2007 season opener. Against the Bucs, Seattle got outgained 402-176, and backup QB Seneca Wallace (12 of 23, 73 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) struggled in place of Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee), who remains out.
San Francisco lost to the New York Giants 29-17, failing to cover as a 10-point underdog by taking a safety late in the game, meaning the SU winner has now covered in each of the Niners’ last 22 games gave the SU winner a whopping 22-0 ATS record in the 49ers’ last 22 starts. QB J.T. O’Sullivan (16 of 28, 256 yards, 1 TD) continued to struggle, committing all three of his team’s turnovers (two INTs, 1 fumble), with the fumble booted out of the back of the end zone for the Giants’ spread-covering safety.
San Francisco posted a 33-30 overtime win last month at Seattle as a 6½-point road pup, after the Seahawks easily won and cashed in both of last year’s meetings.
The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven division games, but otherwise are on ATS skids of 2-5 overall, 0-5 after a spread-cover, 1-5 on the highway and 5-21 in October. The 49ers haven’t been any better at the betting window, carrying negative ATS tends of 0-4 overall, 0-4-1 in home division games, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-4 after a SU loss, 4-10 at Monster Park and 4-12 in NFC play.
The under is 4-1 in the last five clashes between these two, and it is 10-3 in San Fran’s last 13 division contests. But the over for Seattle is on runs of 7-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 against NFC foes, 4-1 on the road and 23-10-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Cincinnati (0-7, 2-5 ATS) at Houston (2-4, 1-5 ATS)
The freefalling Bengals head to the Lone Star State in search of their first win when they face the Texans at Reliant Stadium.
Cincinnati is coming off a 38-10 loss to Pittsburgh as a nine-point home ‘dog, failing to cover for the second straight week. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, continuing to sub for the injured Carson Palmer (elbow), generated just 164 passing yards, and the Bengals finished with a meager 212 total yards while allowing 375.
Houston held off Detroit 28-21 for its second straight victory, but the Texans couldn’t cash as 11-point favorites, their third straight non-cover. QB Matt Schaub (26 of 31, 267 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs) had a solid game, but the huge key was time of possession, as Houston doubled Detroit by holding the ball for 40 minutes.
These teams have met just three times, with Cincy going 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS).
The Bengals are in ATS ruts of 0-5 against the AFC, 2-10-1 in October and 1-5 against losing teams. The Texans are also on a handful of pointspread slides, including 1-5 overall, 0-8 in October, 1-4 against the AFC, 1-4 after a non-cover and 10-22 after a SU win.
The under is 9-4 in Cincinnati’s last 13 games, but the over is 6-0 this season for Houston and is on additional runs for the Texans of 19-7-1 overall, 7-0 on grass, 7-0 against AFC opponents, 4-0 at home and 11-5-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Central Florida (2-4, 2-2-1 ATS) at (22) Tulsa (7-0, 5-1 ATS)
Central Florida is the latest team that will try to slow down the nation’s most prolific offense when it visits 22nd-ranked Tulsa in a rare Sunday night game between Conference USA rivals.
Tulsa ripped UTEP 77-35 last Saturday, piling up a ridiculous 791 total yards in easily covering as a 20½-point home chalk. The Golden Hurricane have won eight straight games (6-1 ATS) dating back to a 63-7 rout of Bowling Green in last year’s GMAC Bowl, outgaining all eight opponents by at least 100 yards, including a whopping 438-yard edge last week against UTEP.
Tulsa leads the nation in scoring offense (56.6 points per game) and total offense (624.7 total yards per game), and behind QB David Johnson (69 percent completion rate, 2,397 yards, 31 TDs, 8 INTs), the Golden Hurricane are fifth nationally in passing (357 ypg) and first in passing TDs.
Central Florida has been idle since Oct. 11, when it went to Miami and lost 20-14, but covered as a 17-point road underdog. The Golden Knights have lost four of their last five overall, and they’ve been outgained in all five contests. UCF averages just 17.7 points per game, and its 248.3 total ypg is worst in the nation, in contrast to Tulsa’s top-ranked offense.
Central Florida beat the Golden Hurricane twice last year by near identical scores, winning 44-23 as a 2½-point home favorite in October, then prevailing 44-25 as a 7½-point home chalk in the Conference USA championship game in December. The SU winner has cashed in all three series meetings between these schools.
The Golden Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five against winning teams, but they’re 11-23-1 ATS in their past 35 road games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on artificial turf. Conversely, Tulsa sports positive pointspread runs of 5-0 at home and 12-5 after a spread-cover, but the Hurricane are 2-6 ATS in their last eight October contests.
For Central Florida, the under is on runs of 9-4 overall, 4-1 in conference and 4-0 in October. But as expected, high-powered Tulsa is in the mist of over runs of 4-1 overall and 6-0-1 on turf. Lastly, despite combined totals of 67 and 69 points, last year’s two meetings between these schools stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA
WORLD SERIES
Tampa Bay (8-6) at Philadelphia (9-3)
The Phillies look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the World Series tonight when they send Joe Blanton (9-12, 4.69 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park for Game 5, while the Rays will counter with Andy Sonnanstine (15-9, 4.32 ERA).
The teams waited out a 90-minute rain delay prior to the start of Game 3 on Saturday, then played a classic, with Philadelphia pulling out a 5-4 victory on a bases-loaded infield single by Carlos Ruiz with no outs in the bottom of the ninth to take control of this best-of-7 series.
The Phillies are 23-6 in their last 29 at Citizen Bank Park (5-0 in the playoffs), and they’re on additional hot streaks of 37-16 overall, 13-3 on Sundays, 26-10 versus righty starters, 20-7 against winning teams, 6-0 with Blanton on the hill overall and 5-0 when Blanton starts at home. However, Charlie Manuel’s club is still only 19-37 in its last 55 interleague games.
The Rays are still on runs of 6-3 in interleague play, 8-3 against the N.L. East, 5-2 in National League ballparks and 35-17 versus right-handed starters. They’re also 22-12 with Sonnanstine on the hill this year and 5-0 in his last five starts against N.L. foes.
Despite being down 2-1 in this series, Tampa Bay has still won nine of the last 13 meetings with Philadelphia.
Sonnanstine pitched the Rays 13-4 blowout win over the Red Sox in his most recent outing on Oct. 14, giving up four runs (three earned) on six hits in 7 1/3 innings. He’s 2-0 with 3.46 ERA in his first two career postseason starts, both of which came on the road. Including those two outings, Sonnanstine is 8-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 18 starts on the highway this year. Tonight marks his first career start against the Phillies.
Blanton last pitched 13 days ago at Dodger Stadium, getting a no-decision in his team’s come-from-behind 7-5 victory over Los Angeles in Game 4 of the NLCS. In that contest, the burly right-hander gave up three runs on seven hits and four walks in five innings. Including a 6-2 series-clinching victory over the Brewers in the divisional round, Blanton is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two October efforts.
Blanton, who was acquired from the A’s in July, is 5-0 with 4.08 ERA in 15 starts with Philadelphia, 11 of which the Phillies have won. At Citizens Bank Park, he’s 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA. Finally, Blanton faced the Rays eight times during his tenure in Oakland, going 2-3 with a hefty 6.05 ERA.
The under is 4-1 in Sonnanstine’s last five on Sunday, but the over is 5-2 in Blanton’s last seven trips to the mound overall.
The under is 7-3-3 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams, including 2-0-1 in this series. Additionally, the under is on runs of 4-0-1 for the Rays overall, 8-3-1 for the Phillies overall, 9-3-1 for the Phillies in the playoffs, 9-4-1 for the Phillies against right-handed starters and 9-2-1 for the Phillies in interleague play. Conversely, the over is 8-3-1 in Tampa’s last 12 road games and 25-8-2 in its last 35 in N.L. parks.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
Ted Sevransky
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints Under 45.5
Last year, when the Giants and Dolphins met at Wembley Stadium in London, the field conditions could not have been worse. Wembley was built for soccer, not professional football. The description of last year’s game was “a mud-caked slog through the unfriendly pitch at torn-up Wembley Stadium.” Dolphins kicker Jay Feely: “The field was like ice.” Both teams were jet-lagged and inconvenienced travelling overseas. It was not pretty football. We should expect more of the same in 2008.
If you’ve ever been to London in the Fall, you know already that it rains almost every day. The lookahead forecast for London on Sunday shows a likelihood of rain falling throughout the game, leaving the field in ‘quagmire’ condition once again. Yes, the Saints and Chargers both have explosive, high powered offenses. But let’s not forget that these two offenses combined to produce just 21 points in good conditions this past weekend. And each team’s defense has exceeded expectations in recent weeks as well.
After a streak of five consecutive ‘Overs’ to open the season, the Saints have now gone Under the total in each of the last two weeks, with the Chargers riding a three game Under streak of their own. In a game where staying healthy in ugly conditions is likely to be every bit as important as winning, look for both coaches to utilize conservative gameplans, leading to another low scoring affair. Take the Under.
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints Under 45.5
Last year, when the Giants and Dolphins met at Wembley Stadium in London, the field conditions could not have been worse. Wembley was built for soccer, not professional football. The description of last year’s game was “a mud-caked slog through the unfriendly pitch at torn-up Wembley Stadium.” Dolphins kicker Jay Feely: “The field was like ice.” Both teams were jet-lagged and inconvenienced travelling overseas. It was not pretty football. We should expect more of the same in 2008.
If you’ve ever been to London in the Fall, you know already that it rains almost every day. The lookahead forecast for London on Sunday shows a likelihood of rain falling throughout the game, leaving the field in ‘quagmire’ condition once again. Yes, the Saints and Chargers both have explosive, high powered offenses. But let’s not forget that these two offenses combined to produce just 21 points in good conditions this past weekend. And each team’s defense has exceeded expectations in recent weeks as well.
After a streak of five consecutive ‘Overs’ to open the season, the Saints have now gone Under the total in each of the last two weeks, with the Chargers riding a three game Under streak of their own. In a game where staying healthy in ugly conditions is likely to be every bit as important as winning, look for both coaches to utilize conservative gameplans, leading to another low scoring affair. Take the Under.
