Service Plays Sunday 10/26/08

[lucid_dreamer]

John Fina

Selection: Baltimore Ravens -8

Reason: Put us down on the Baltimore Ravens -8 for our Free NFL Selection on Sunday. The Baltimore Ravens are the way to go in this matchup. The Raiders are not that great of a team but they do have some strengths, one of which is their ground game. Oakland has 3 very skilled running backs but their passing game leaves a lot to be desired. Baltimore allows an average of 66.8 ypg and they are ranked second in the NFL in total defense and ranked first in rush defense. In 24 consecutive games, the Ravens have not allowed a single 100 yard rush which is an NFL high. The Ravens are spectacular at M&T Bank Stadium. At home they allowed all of their three opponents, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Tennessee, to 33 points combined. Baltimore's defense is simply to much for Raiders' QB JaMarcus Russell and his substandard wideouts. Oakland will also be disadvantaged by game time, which is earlier than they are accustomed to. This season, teams traveling from the Pacific Time Zone to the East Coast are 1-9 ATS. Derrick Burgess, the Raiders Star Pass Rusher, has been out of the last few games and its questionable whether he'll be present this game. Oakland's pass rush as well as the team's strength relies heavily upon Burgess and so obviously his absence will be detrimental for Oakland. It is important for Baltimore to put up the points to cover the touchdown spread but RB Willis McGahee is coming off his best game of the year so far. Rookie QB Joe Flacco has shown a big boost in confidence, has been a lot more aggressive lately, and coach John Harbaugh has him running more option plays. Flacco should have optimal field position from start to finish with the solid Raven defense, and the team morale is high after getting their first road victory. Conversely the Raiders will be in a letdown state after their win vs. the Jets that came during overtime; a win that was a team record field goal executed by Sebastian Janikowski. We will lay the points with the much superior team! Take the Baltimore Ravens -8!

Matt Rivers

For Sunday take the Bucs in Big D.

I sound like every square and their mother here piling on the wounded Cowboys but I just do not see Dallas being able to muster up enough offense behind Brad Johnson to win this game.

The Cowboys have absolutely no momentum at all coming into this thing and have a Quarterback who can't throw more than 15 yards at a time. Johnson makes Miami's Chad Pennington look like a great deep ball thrower and after the brutal blowout loss in St. Louis last week and the whole Pacman controversy and the injuries including Roy Williams the defender and Terrence Newman and Sam Hurd and on and on and on things are not going to come easy here for the Pokes.

Tampa meanwhile just continue to do its thing. Monte Kiffin has his defense flying around like always and Jeff Garcia has continued to show he is a quality leader.and has the offense playing very well thanks to its usual stout ground game no matter who is healthy and running the rock.

Dallas has enough talent to always have a chance to win on its home field but the Bucs are the team that has everything going its way unlike the home boys who right now are terrible. I do not see a 180 all of a sudden happening and therefore I'll take my chances on the visiting Buccaneers.

Chris Jordan

Atlanta at PHILADELPHIA -9

I know both teams are coming in off their bye week, and I know everyone is very high on young Matt Ryan, but I am much more comfortable with the Eagles getting this one done by a huge number.

The city of Philadelphia will be alive this weekend thanks to the World Series, and the Eagles will feed off of that. The NFC East is not as tight as everyone might have thought, now that preseason favorite Dallas is 4-3 after losing three of its last four games.

Philadelphia needs this win, and it needs to win big to provide some momentum before a Nov. 9th home meeting with the defending champion Giants.

The Eagles have a road game in Seattle on deck, so looking ahead is not an issue. And since they’re 9-3 against the books under coach Andy Reid after a bye week, I’d have to believe this team will be ready for a blowout win over the young Dirty Birds.

Quarterback Donovon McNabb has looked tremendous in what many believed would be a down year, ranking in eighth in passing with 1,576 yards, eight touchdown strikes versus three interceptions.

Philly has covered three of its last four meetings with the Falcons. The Eagles are also 4-1 against the number when hosting off a bye week and playing a team coming off straight-up win as an underdog. Let’s lay the points with the Eagles in this one.

1♦ EAGLES

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

gus marone nfc blowout game of the year

carolina -4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LOGICAL APPROACH


NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: PHILADELPHIA - 9 over Atlanta - Both teams are off of Byes. Atlanta has been a major surprise thus far with rookie QB Ryan leading the Falcons to a 4-2 record. Philly is just 3-3 but has had to deal with injuries, most notably to RB Westbrook, expected back for this game. The Eagles' aggressive defense should create some problems for the Falcons who have played poorly in 2 of 3 road games when the ground game struggled. The Philly offense, with a healthy Westbrook, is well balanced and potent, especially with QB McNabb healthy. Atlanta may well be a team on the rise but the Eagles are a mature, experienced and well coached team. Their defense will set the tempo for this game and is likely to force mistakes upon which the Philly offense will capitalize. Philadelphia wins 27-13.



Other Featured NFL Selections :

DALLAS - 4 over Tampa Bay - The uncertain status of Dallas QB Romo could create volatility in the line during the week but Dallas should ultimately be favored by more than a FG, less than a TD. This is a critical game for the 'Boys as they return from a pair of upset road losses at Arizona and St Louis and have a pair of Divisional road trips on deck at the Giants and Washington. They were clearly unfocused and unprepared last week in St Louis and took a scolding from team owner Jones afterwards. Tampa is off 2 solid home wins but is in a tough spot against a more talented team playing with their season virtually on the line. Even with backup QB Johnson Dallas is poised for their best effort to date. Both teams are in very competitive Divisions and this game could play a part in Playoff tiebreakers. The expectation is that Romo won't go and the line will be closer to a FG. Either way, look for Dallas' defense to come up big and be the key. Dallas wins 26-13.



JACKSONVILLE - 7 over Cleveland - Jacksonville had started to play well prior to last week's Bye after a sluggish 0-2 start. They''ve won 3 of 4 and appear poised to again contend for the Playoffs. Cleveland was competitive in losing at Washington after their Monday night upset of the Giants. The Browns' defense has actually put up better than expected stats, allowing under 20 points per game. Most of their defensive success has been against the pass (#7) but their run defense has been below average (146 ypg, # 26). Unfortunately their offense has dropped off considerably from last season (256 ypg, #30). Jacksonville is the better overall team and they have a significant edge in the running game which should be decisive here. The Jags have yet to have a breakout game as all 3 wins have been by a TD or less. The Bye allowed them to make adjustments to allow their running game strength to exploit Cleveland's weakness. Jacksonville wins 31-13.



Cincinnati + 10 over HOUSTON - Both teams were scheduled for Byes this week before Hurricane Ike necessitated a schedule adjustment. Cincinnati is winless (0-7) although they were competitive for most of last week''s game against Pittsburgh, trailing 17-10 after 3 quarters. Houston has won 2 straight after starting 0-4. But the Texans have a poor defense, one that creates few turnovers (just 0.8 per game, # 30). Cincy's struggled on offense with starting QB Palmer sidelined. They are gaining a league low 232 ypg but that should improve as backup QB Fitzpatrick gets more work as starter. Given the success of double digit dogs and the fact that Houston should not be laying such large numbers with their lowly rated defense, the Bengals are ripe to pull the upset, and certainly stay close. Houston is the weakest foe faced to date by the Bengals as they and Cleveland are the only teams Cincy has faced that currently have losing records. Cincinnati wins 23-20.




Best of the NFL Totals

Oakland/Baltimore UNDER 35 ½
Kansas City/N Y Jets UNDER 38
St Louis/New England OVER 43
Washington/Detroit UNDER 43 ½
N Y Giants/Pittsburgh UNDER 43
Indianapolis/Tennessee UNDER 42 ½




Money Line Recommendations

New Orleans
DALLAS
N Y Giants
Cincinnati


NFL Home Dogs - An Endangered Species? - Or Maybe Just a Myth?



The NFL regular season approaches the midway point with 102 of 256 games having been played. 2008 is unfolding as a season in which favorites and underdogs have performed almost equally, as they did last season but unlike the two seasons before. In 2005 Favorites were dominant, covering nearly 58% of the time (142-104-9). Withing that group, Road Favorites were an astounding 47-29-4 (61.8%) meaning Home Underdogs covered just 38% of the time! In 2006 Favorites were just 106-140-5, 43.1% ATS (Against the Spread). Home Underdogs were a solid 46-32-1 ATS (59.0%). These disparate results have called into question the long held "belief" that the best "value" comes playing Underdogs, especially home underdogs.



Witness how Home Underdogs have done over the years. Over the past 26 seasons Home Underdogs are 965-889-54 ATS, or 52.05%. That's below the 52.4% needed to break even laying 11 to 10! Since 1982 the best season for Home Underdogs was 1996 when they went 39-25-0 for 60.9%, a profit of 11.5 net units (2002 & 2006 were close behind). The worst was 2005 as Home Pups went 29-47-4 for just 38.2% (previously 1984 had produced the poorest results). Of the past 26 seasons there have been only 7 seasons in which Home Underdogs hit at less than 50% although there have also been 4 seasons in which Home Dogs hit above 50% but below the 'break even' point of 52.4%. There have been 15 seasons in which Home Underdogs turned a profit, but in 8 of them the profit was less than 2.0 net units for the entire season!

Blindly betting Home Underdogs between 1982 and 2004 would have produced a net profit of just 7.7 units but that entire profit was more than offset by the loss in 2005 of 22.7 net units for a net loss, on a flat bet basis, of 15.0 units over more than 1,700 plays -- hardly the definition of long term success -- or success at all for that matter. 10.8 units were "recovered" in 2006 but most of that was given back in 2007 when Home Underdogs produced a net loss of 8.6 units. Thus there has been an overall NET LOSS of 12.9 units by blindly having bet NFL Home Underdogs over the past 26 seasons! Quite a surprise to nearly everyone.



As to the "value" of Home Underdogs? It's a matter of semantics or, more accurately, a matter of relativity. Home Underdogs are the best of four "evils" in that relative to Home Favorites, Road Favorites and Road Underdogs betting on Home Underdogs has produced the lowest level of losses over a quarter century. So the next time you hear a handicapper or commentator extol the virtues of the Home Underdog you will be aware that the "bark" is much louder than the "bite" and that while looking for Home Underdogs is indeed a solid approach to handicapping it's not the be all and end all many have proclaimed it to be.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chris Rizzo

BEST BET
INDIANAPOLIS 4


BALTIMORE -7
MIAMI 1
DALLAS -2.5
PHILADELPHIA -9
NEW ENGLAND -7
CAROLINA -4
JACKSONVILLE -6.5
NY GIANTS 3
CINCINNATI 9.5

 

[EagleFan]

Joyce Sterling
Sunday NFL 10/26

Pittsburgh -3 (8-3 run)10 STAR Game of the Week
Eli Manning vs Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh, first in the league in total defense (228.3 yards per game) and pass defense (158.7), is coming off a 38-10 wen vs Cincinnati last week. The Steelers held an opponent to less than 100 yards rushing for the fifth time this season, surrendered a season-low 128 passing yards and forced a turnover for the fifth time in six games. Steelers' 89 points allowed is the second-lowest total in the NFL. Their offense also appears to be coming around with a second consecutive game of at least 375 yards.

Washington -9
They already played poorly vs a previous winless team, St. Louis, 2 weeks ago so they should be more focused here. After overcoming a bad first half to survive another close call last week, they'll try to return to form by taking advantage of another of the NFL's worst teams. Jason Campbell is yet to be picked off this season. Detroit is in total disarray. They are 2-11 ATS their last 13 games.

Cleveland +7
Cleveland needs this game. They are 13-0 ATS playing a nondivision game off a nondivision game. The Cleveland defense is underrated, they have held 4 of 6 opponents to 14 points or less. They are on a 13-4 ATS run.<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

5*BEST BET

Philadelphia over Atlanta by 20
For multiple reasons, the Eagles picked an opportune time to even
their record for the season. For openers, head coach Andy Reid
sparkles in games when playing with rest, going 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS,
including 5-0 ATS versus a .666 or greater opponent. Better yet, when
Donovan McNabb is his starting QB and his team is rested, the Eagles
are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS. In addition, Reid is 6-1 ATS in games when his
record is dead-even .500 and he’s taking on a foe off a SU and ATS win.
And speaking of dead-even .500 clubs, teams in Game Seven that are
playing at home off one-win exact are 12-4 ATS since 1980. While the
Falcons are an improved unit from last season they have allowed three
of their last four foes 2nd high season yards. The Eagles, on the other
hand, have held four foes to season-low yardage. Andy looks dandy
in this spot today.

4* BEST BET

NY Giants over Pittsburgh by 10
As we approach the halfway mark of the 2008 NFL season, it’s apparent
there is no clear-cut favorite in either conference. The Chargers, Colts
and Patriots have struggled, thus vaulting the Steelers and Titans into
prominence in the AFC. The Cowboys, Eagles and Bucs have all had
their woes, making the G-Men and Redskins the teams to beat in the
NFC. Thus, this could be a possible Super Bowl preview. We all know
the Giants’ affi nity for playing away from home (12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS
last 13 games). What you don’t know is that defending Super Bowl
champions shine on the road if not favored when taking on a .833 or
greater opponent. That’s because these ring-winners are 12-1 ATS in
this role since 1980! Considering Steeler boss Mike Tomlin is 0-4 ATS
in games off back-to-back wins if the last game was against a division
foe, we’ll stand tall with Big Blue.


3* BEST BET

Arizona over Carolina by 7

Both of these teams missed out on the playoffs last season and both
appear to be in post-season contention as we near the halfway mark
of this 2008 campaign. The Cardinals were denied a winning record
last year when the Panthers upended them, 25-10, as 6-point home
favorites.If that isn’t incentive enough then perhaps Ken Whisenhunt’s
10-1 ATS career mark in games against opponents off a win of 7 or
more points should be. On the other side of the ledger, Carolina head
coach John Fox trots off to the fi nance company as a home favorite
in games against .666 or greater opposition, going 3-6 SU and 1-7-1
ATS. That being said, we fully expect the Panthers to drop to 3-15 ATS
at home against .500 or greater opponents with revenge here today.
We’re raising Arizona.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA


TECHNICAL PLAY OF THE WEEK

CAROLINA
Taking advantage of emerging team trends is a key component
of technical-oriented handicapping. And the Carolina Panthers
are developing a doozy of an advantage at home this season,
undefeated straight up (4-0) and vs. the line (3-0-1) at Charlotte.
That’s potential trouble for the visiting Arizona Cardinals, who
have also failed to cover the last 3 series meetings vs. the
Panthers




TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...

OAKLAND at BALTIMORE...Ravens 1-0 as chalk TY, but remember
1-8 mark previous 9 in role. Ravens also “under” 2-0-1 at home
TY. Tech edge-slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.


SAN DIEGO vs. NEW ORLEANS (at Wembley Stadium,
London)...Saints “over” 17-9 last 26 on board; Bolts “over” 15-5 last
20 away from Qualcomm. Tech edge-“Over” and Saints, based on
“totals” and team trends.


KANSAS CITY at NY JETS...Herm “under” 10-4 last 14 away from
home, and just 5-10 vs. line last 15 games on board. Tech edgeslight
to “under” and Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.


BUFFALO at MIAMI...Bills have won 7 of last 8 meetings, and
covered all 8 of those vs. Dolphins! Bills “over” 4-2 first 6 TY, Dolphins
“over” 8-3 last 11. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Bills, based on
“totals” and series trends.


TAMPA BAY at DALLAS...Dallas just 2-10 vs. spread last 12 on
board, including no covers last 5 at Texas Stadium. Dallas also “over”
first 3 at home TY. Tech edge-Bucs and “over,” based on recent
team and “totals” trends.


ATLANTA at PHILADELPHIA...Eagles “under” first 3 at home TY
(as opposed to “over” first 3 on road). Andy Reid only 4-9 against
spread last 13 as host. Falcs 9-5 vs. line last 14 away (all as dog).
Tech edge-Falcons and “under,” based on team and “totals”
trends.


ST. LOUIS at NEW ENGLAND...Note that Belichick just 3-11 vs.
line last 14 on board, and no covers last 7 at Foxboro. Rams “under’
10-4 last 14 away. Tech edge-slight to Rams and “under,” based
on team and “totals” trends.


ARIZONA at CAROLINA...Panthers have covered in last 3 meetings
(‘04-05-07). Cards “over” last 3 TY and “over” 11-4 last 15 as
visitor. Tech edge-Panthers and slight to “over,” based on series
and Cards’“totals” trends.


WASHINGTON at DETROIT...Lions just 1-5 vs. line last 6 at home
and only 2-11 against number last 13 on board since mid ‘07. Detroit
also “over” 9-3 last 12 at Ford Field. Tech edge-“Over” and
Redskins, based on “totals” and team trends.


CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE...Note that Romeo a surprising
16-6 vs. number since LY. Jags surprising 0-3 vs. line at home TY.
JV also “over” 9-4 last 13 at home. Tech edge-“Over” and slight to
Browns, based on “totals” and team trends.


NY GIANTS at PITTSBURGH...Steel “over” first 2 at Heinz Field
TY, now “over” 43-14-1 last 58 at home! Giants “over” first 2 as visitor
TY and “over” last 4 overall. Giants 9-1 vs. line last 10 away from
home even after last week’s loss at Cleveland. Tech edge-“Over”
and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.


SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO...Seattle 7-16-1 against number
last 24 away from Qwest Field. Holmgren “over” 4 of last 5 as visitor.
Niners “over” last 2 at Candlestick after “under” 8 of previous 10 at
home. Tech edge-“Over” and 49ers, based on recent team
and “totals” trends.


CINCINNATI at HOUSTON...Texas “over” 6-0 in '08, “over” 19-7-
1 last 27 on board. Tech edge-“Over,” based on "totals"
trends.


INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (Monday, October 27)...Titans
have covered last 4 in series, and last 6 “under” in this AFC South
rivalry. Titans 6-0 SU and vs. line out of gate TY. Tech edge-slight
to Titans and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends




SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT

NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-BUFFALO* over Miami@, NEW
ORLEANS over San Diego, NY GIANTS* over Pittsburgh, INDIANAPOLIS
over Tennessee (10/27).


FAMILIARITY-MIAMI over Buffalo#@, SAN FRANCISCO over
Seattle#.

NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-DALLAS over Tampa Bay.

NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-NEW ENGLAND over St. Louis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cajun Sports

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL)
Oct 26, 2008 1:00 PM EDT

Play: Total: 45 Under

The City of Brotherly Love will be the site of Sunday’s match up between the host Eagles and the visiting Atlanta Falcons. Both Teams enter Sunday’s contest off of their bye week and having won their last game prior to the open date.
Philadelphia has been very strong coming off their bye posting a record of 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS but the key for us in this contest is they have only allowed 8.8 points per game off their bye.

Both teams have strong “Under” tendencies coming off their bye week as Atlanta is 8-0-2 Under during the last decade and Philly has gone “Under” in nine straight games off their bye.

Philadelphia’s defensive front presents a huge problem for rookie QB Matt Ryan of the Falcons as they rank number 2 in the NFL on our defensive index rating with a rating of 4.3. They are second only to Pittsburgh who has a 2.94 YPA while the Eagles check in with a 3.54 YPA.

The Eagles defense is tied for the NFC lead with 21 sacks this season and they love to blitz which may be too much for Ryan’s first trip to Philly. Eagles Safety Brian Dawkins is one of five Defensive Backs in NFL history with 20 or more sacks in their career. A tough place and a tough “D” for young Ryan to contend with on Sunday in Philadelphia.

The Falcons offense averages 291 yards per game and only 15.8 points per game on the road. The Eagles defense is only allowing 10.7 points per game at home this season. The Eagles offense averages 345 yards per game and 23.3 points per game at home this year. The Falcons defense is allowing 24 points per game on the highway this season.

ATLANTA is 14-5 Under in road games over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 Under in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 18-8 Under as a favorite over the last 3 seasons, 13-3 Under as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 Under as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.

The Falcons are 12-31 Under on the road. The Falcons are 0-8 Under on the road when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. The Falcons are 3-13 Under on the road when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Falcons are 4-14 Under as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

The Eagles are 0-13 Under as a favorite the week after their bye. The Eagles are 1-16-1 Under as a 7+ favorite. The Eagles are 0-8-1 Under as a home favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Eagles are 0-7-1 Under as a home 7+ favorite versus a non-divisional opponent.

With strong fundamental support and overwhelming technical support we will make the Under in today’s contest our 2* NFL Total “Free” Selection of the Week.

GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Atlanta / Philadelphia Under 45

 

[lucid_dreamer]

Jim Feist

SEA Seahawks at SF 49ers
Take: SF 49ers

It's not a good time for the struggling and banged up Seahawks (1-5 SU/2-4 ATS). The only thing going right is the running game, which is 7th overall behind newcomer Julius Jones, averaging 131 yards per game. That's great if you're Navy, but won't cut it in the NFL. The offense is still 28th overall as QB Matt Hasselbeck (bruised knee) has sat out the last two games. The offense has scored 17 and 10 points the last two weeks. QB Seneca Wallace stepped in Sunday and threw for 73 yards and an interception in a 20-10 loss at Tampa Bay. Wallace was harried and hurried and forced to scramble, and made his share of errant throws. Their WRs have been depleted all season and Deion Branch missed another game Sunday (knee). That’s why Matt Hasselbeck (551 yds, 48%, 2 TDs, 4 INTs) is struggling even when he’s been playing. The knee injury is related to a bulging disk in Hasselbeck's back. The defense has been mauled, allowing 523 yards of total offense (254 yards on the ground) in a loss to the Giants, ranked 27th overall, plus allowing 28.5 ppg. Seattle 7-14 SU, 7-14 ATS its last 21 on the road and 1-5 ATS its last 6 on the road. They just had a road game at Tampa Bay (3,000 miles) and now have another road game. "Right now our confidence on offense isn't where it should be," Holmgren said, "and now we have to keep them going somehow, some way, and regain that confidence that we used to have." The 49ers have struggled too, ranked 23rd in defense and 23rd in offense, despite adding free wheeling OC Mike Martz. The 49ers figured that firing the head coach helped the Rams, so why not try it? San Fran fired head coach Mike Nolan this week. Assistant head coach Mike Singletary will take over as coach. Singletary has been coaching the 49ers linebackers since 2005. QB J.T. O’Sullivan (8 TDs, 10 INTs) has been mostly down, despite good targets in newcomer WR Isaac Bruce and power RB Frank Gore. There were hints that they might make a quarterback change this week. Shaun Hill has been the backup. Win one for the new coach? That could be just the ticket here on Sunday for the Niners!!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Akmens NFL

8 units New England Patriots -7.5

5 units Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5

5 units Cleveland Browns +7.0

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Saints
Dolphins
49ers
C. Florida
<!-- / message -->

 

[brady1983]

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): OAKLAND RAIDERS vs BALTIMORE RAVENS


Play: BALTIMORE RAVENS -7

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): TAMPA BAY BUCS vs DALLAS COWBOYS


Play: TAMPA BAY BUCS +2

LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT (LVTR): NEW YORK GIANTS vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS


Play: NEW YORK GIANTS +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Balfe

Guys,
Horrible day yesterday. We were looking great at 3-0 coming into the weekend, but I dropped the ball. We will bounce back strong.


NFL Football
Raiders/Ravens Under 35.5
The Raiders held a great QB in check last week and will look to build on that momentum against a rookie in Joe Flacco. Oakland will have a tough time scoring on a solid as usual Ravens Defense. Russell looked OK last week, but I do not see Oakland generating much offense. Take the Under.

Buffalo/Miami Under 42
Both teams are having solid seasons, but Buffalo has exceeded everyone's expectations. I still think the Bills are overrated and will be going up against an experienced Dolphins Defense. Miami will also be going up against a more experienced defense and neither team has the type of offense to blow you away. We could see wind gust of 40mph. That is tough on the kickers and the QB's. Take the Under.

Giants +3 over Steelers
The Giants are on a roll and are lucky they wont be getting Pittsburgh's best punch on offense with so many injuries. New York has a huge offensive line and big receivers which should give the Steelers a lot of trouble. The Giants are last years Champs and are playing like them. Take the Gmen.

Cincinnati/Houston Over 45
Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the man for the rest of the season under center for the Bengals. Fitzpatrick is a smart QB that should do alright against a suspect Texans Defense. Both teams have huge size mismatches of offense and should move the ball well today. The Bengals are a team that has nothing to lose and are very capable of winning this game. Look for the Bengals offense to find a spark and for Houston to take advantage of a bad Cincinnati defense. Take the Over.

College Football
No plays today.

 

[ymmit2nd]

Pro Source

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore - 7 AFC GOW
vs Oakland 1 pm ET
The Ravens have had an easy time with the Raiders, 4-1
SU/ATS S1992. We also rate Baltimore a dble digit fav in
this game. We're really looking at playing against Oakland.
They go on the road off a HUGE win at home for their new
Coach Cable. Oakland was dismantled in Cables lone road
try after their bye. Oakland has distractions with rumblings
from the remaining Raider Coaches & HC Kiffin fighting it
out thru the media, bad mouthing each other pretty much.
Oakland's defensive coordinator and the Ravens DC are twin
brothers. Oak's DC Ryan has been talking up his defense
in the media saying it's as good as his bro's.
The Ravens are # 2, Oakland is # 26. Baltimore is seventh
in the league with 134.3 rushing yds/gm, while the Raider
run defense has surrendered 136.2 rypg
Balt's rookie QB Joe Flacco went 17-for-23 for 232 yards
and a TD AT Miami, so is gaining confidence and should
play well at home. RB Willis McGahee ran 19 times for a
season-best 105 yards and a TD, so the Baltimore offense
is gaining momentum. The Ravens are proud of their defense,
& they were embarrassed last week at Miami. The defense
which had held opponents to a league-low 257 yds/gm got
pushed around, surrendering a season high 359 yds.
Oakland was badly out-gained last week and benefited from
turnovers and will have a hard time staying close here. Off
the emotional OT first home win of the season, and facing
long travel across the country vs a tough defensive home
team, this a rough spot for Oakland
system to:
Play Against road in this spread range off a SU home dog
win and rushed for 150 plus yds. .. ..64% for 8 yrs
Baltimore a solid 37-16-2 lst 10 yrs as a home fav, thats
our 70% stat thru 10 seasons, including 27-9, 75%, vs
losing teams & 18-2 when coming off a non-div gm. 90%
Oak 6-12 in ET gms, 7-18 vs NFC North, & played almost
a full extra qtr of FB last week.



New England - 7 Inter-Conference GOM
vs St Louis 1 pm et
The Pats are off the short week but stay at home. It's
the Rams in a the letdown spot.
Play Against any away underdog in this spread range who
won SU the previous week as an underdog of 7(+) pts and
they’re playing an opponent off a win.
.....27-8-2 77% thru 18 seasons.
Play Against road teams in this spread range off a SU home dog
win and rushed for 150 plus yds. .. ..67% for 8 yrs
This is a flat spot for NE who off BB primetime games vs
SD & Den with a road SNF game vs Ind on deck...BUT
The Rams are off 2 huge upsets of Washington & Dallas.
They also lost their best defensive player, DT Carriker &
will be without RB Jackson (had 160 yds, 3TD's last wk).
Tough break for STL as #2 RB Leonard landed on IR & #3
RB Pittman is coming off a broken leg. StL was literally
handed the win by the Skins at Washington 2 gms ago.
Sunday, it looked like Dallas didn't feel like playing any
defense. They allowed 21 pts to the Rams IN THE FIRST
QTR..cmon..the Bulger led Rams did that feat for the first
time since 2001 vs Dallas? The reeling Cowboys were in
their 2nd away in a row and rudderless with Romo going
down. StL has been outgained 432-202 on the road this
year. We're not sold that the Rams have righted the ship.
NE is 19-8-2 ATS vs the NFC, 11-1 lst 12 Oct gms
StL is 2-11 ATS away in the ET, 6-16 away S1992 as a
3.5 to 7 rd dog.



Philadelphia UNDER 46 Total of the Week
vs Atlanta 1 pm et
We expect a lot of running today. The Eagles had a great
ground game ignite vs SF before the bye, and we expect
them to run it today. Running is about all the Falcons can
do. With both teams off their bye week, the defenses will
be tough and rested.
The Eagles are an under team in October. They have gone
29- 45 UNDER, 61% for 18 seasons.
Phil UN 1-11 as 3.5 to 10 home favs, UN 0-9 off their BYE,
..here's the oddball rare stat..Phil 0-9 UNDER as favs of 7(+)
pts if they are coming off a SU road win their last game.
The Eagles have played UNDER THE TOTAL in 13 of 14
games with rest under head coach Andy Reid.
Atl is Under 2-16 their last 18 road games after a SU Win,
UN 1-10 off their BYE, UN 2-10 on grass
Simple angle that actually was an over system:
Play the UNDER when both teams scored 28+ last.
6 -20-2 Under since 2003 ...77 for a short 5 yrs

 

[ymmit2nd]

Action Sports Services

Best Bet Play 4-0 YTD

Detroit +7.5

 

[ymmit2nd]

Ethan law

5% dallas goy
1% arizona +4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sixth Sense

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Just 2-2 last week. The record on the year is now 25-11 +38.70%. All plays are delivered via email and will be sent by 10 p.m. central on Friday evenings. League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 22.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.0
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.2

Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.

BALTIMORE –7 BALTIMORE 23 OAKLAND 10

San Diego –3 SAN DIEGO 30 NEW ORLEANS 27

NY JETS –13.5 NY JETS 31 KANSAS CITY 17

Buffalo –1.5 MIAMI 23 BUFFALO 14

DALLAS –2 TAMPA BAY 23 DALLAS 20

PHILADELPHIA –9.5 PHILADELPHIA 27 ATLANTA 17

NEW ENGLAND –7.5 NEW ENGLAND 24 ST LOUIS 14

CAROLINA –4 CAROLINA 24 ARIZONA 15

Washington –7.5 WASHINGTON 21 DETROIT 14

JACKSONVILLE –7 JACKSONVILLE 17 CLEVELAND 14

PITTSBURGH –3 PITTSBURGH 26 NY GIANTS 17

SAN FRANCISCO –5.5 SAN FRANCISCO 27 SEATTLE 23

HOUSTON –9 HOUSTON 28 CINCINNATI 24

TENNESSEE –4 TENNESSEE 23 INDIANAPOLIS 13

BEST BETS YTD 25-11 +38.70% 3%

BALTIMORE –7 or less
3% MIAMI +1.5
3% CAROLINA –4
3% PITTSBURGH –3
3% TENNESSEE -4
3% SAN DIEGO/NEW ORLEANS OVER 45
<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

 

[ymmit2nd]

Brian Hansen's NFC GOY is on Arizona

 

[ymmit2nd]

big tom cavinder (from same group as gus marone)

underdog lock of the year detroit lions +7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ted Sevransky / TEDDY COVERS

6* Giants

Big Ticket: 6* Take the Giants.
<!-- / message -->