Dr. Bob
2 NFL Best Bets this week on Indy -13 for 3-Stars and the NY Giants -7 for 2-Stars.
3 Star Selection
***Indianapolis (-13.0) 34 ST. LOUIS 13
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
NFL road favorites of 10 points or more tend to suffer a letdown against their inferior foes, especially if the superior visitor is coming off a win the previous week. Such was the case last week with Philadelphia being unprepared in Oakland. Double-digit road favorites off a win the previous week are just 34-56-2 ATS, but the Colts likely avoided a letdown by having an off week last week. In fact, road favorites with a .500 or better record (after 5 or more games) are 37-13 ATS following their bye week, including 6-3 ATS as a double-digit road favorite. Without a letdown situation applying I have no reason not to take the Colts in this game against a horrible Rams team that has lost 21 of their 38 games the last 3 seasons by 14 points or more, including 4 out of 6 this season. If the Rams lose over half of their games by 14 points or more then their chances of losing by that margin are even greater against an elite team like the Colts. The Rams, like most bad teams, are only competitive against other bad teams or if they're coming off their bye week. In 26 games the last 3 years in which the Rams are not off a bye week and not facing a losing team they are just 1-25 straight up, 4-21-1 ATS, and have lost 18 of those 26 games by 14 points or more (4 out of 4 this season). The Colts would qualify as one of the better teams that they have faced, as Indy is out-scoring their opponents by an average of 13.2 points this season while fielding a potent offense (6.9 yards per play) and a defense that has allowed just 4.5 yppl for the season while holding all of their opponents to 4.9 yppl or less. Holding the Rams pathetic offense (just 4.7 yppl against teams that allow 5.4 yppl) in check should be no problem and Peyton Manning, who is having his best season ever, is likely to abuse a Rams' defense that has giving up 7.5 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.8 yppl against an average team. The Rams have faced two good quarterbacks this season and they gave up 10.0 yards per pass play to Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and 9.9 yppp to Brett Favre and the Vikings. Imagine what Peyton Manning can do against that defense (hint: my math model projects 410 pass yards at 10.2 yppp).
My math model actually favors the Colts by 19 1/2 points and gives them a 57.6% chance of covering based on the historical performance of my math model. I have another math model that predicts a fair line and the fair line on this game is 17 1/2 points. If the fair line is 17 1/2 points, then the Colts have a 63% chance of covering at -13 points and a 60.5% chance at -14 points (56.9% at -14 1/2). I'll take Indianapolis in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 1/2 points or less and for 2-Stars at -14 points.
2 Star Selection
**NY GIANTS (-7.0) 27 Arizona 13
05:20 PM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Arizona is coming off a couple of impressive pair of wins over Houston and Seattle, but the Cardinals are stepping up in class tonight against a Giants team that will be eager to rebound from last week's blowout loss at New Orleans. Arizona's offense has been barely better than average this season thanks to a non-existent rushing attack (3.1 ypr), as the Cards have averaged a modest 5.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Kurt Warner and company have only been able to move the ball well against bad defensive teams Jacksonville and Houston and they've been held to 4.9 yppl or less in games against solid defensive teams San Francisco, Indy, and Seattle. The Giants defense rates at 0.6 yppl better than average, allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team and they're pass rush should be even better than normal knowing they don't have to worry too much about the run.
Arizona's defense has been good, allowing just 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team, but the Giants' attack has averaged 6.2 yppl this season and is 0.7 yppl better than average with quarterback Eli Manning in the game. The Giants not only have an advantage from the line of scrimmage, but they are less likely to turn the ball over and have a edge in special teams too. My math model favors New York by 12 points and Arizona applies to a negative 29-78-3 ATS road letdown situation while the Giants apply to a 67-29-4 ATS statistical profile indicator. New York is also 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games, including 7-1 ATS the week following a loss. I'll take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
Strong Opinion
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) 31 Minnesota 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Minnesota is 6-0 straight up and has out-scored their easy schedule of teams (2.2 points easier than average) by an average score of 31.5 to 20.2 points. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 4-2 and has out-scored their even easier schedule (3.3 points easier than average) by just 23.3 to 18.7 points. You may look at that and wonder why Pittsburgh is favored by more than the standard home field advantage of 3 points, but I look at these two teams knowing that the Steelers should be favored by even more points. The Steelers have out-gained their opponents 405 yards at 6.4 yards per play to 272 yards at 4.9 yppl this season, but have been kept from dominating on the scoreboard due to bad special teams and a -5 in turnover margin. The special teams problems may continue but Pittsburgh should average a turnover margin of just -0.1 per game going forward based on QB Ben Roethlisberger's history of 1.0 interceptions per game and the randomness of fumbles.
Minnesota has out-gained their weak schedule by just 349 yards at 5.8 yppl to 342 yards at 5.5 yppl and the Vikings have been just 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense after compensating for strength of opponents. The reason Minnesota is unbeaten and out-scoring teams by 11 points per game is because they've been great in special teams and are +8 in turnover margin (+1.3 per game). The Vikings are a random +4 in fumble margin and it's not likely that Brett Favre will continue to throw just 0.3 interceptions per game given his long history of turnovers (312 interceptions in 275 starts, including 22 picks last season with the Jets). Favre was very careful in the first two games, throwing mostly short, safe passes, but he's starting to throw the ball down field with abandon and the interceptions should start to accumulate at his normal rate. Favre's more aggressive passing the last 4 games has also aided the offense, which has been 0.6 yppl better than average the last 4 games with Favre airing it out more (he averaged just 7.2 yards per completed pass the first 2 games and has averaged 12.7 ypc the last 4 games).
With their improved offense the Vikings do have a 0.4 yppl advantage over a Pittsburgh defense that is just 0.2 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 5.0 yppl against an average team). However, Pittsburgh's offense is one of the best in the league with RB Rashard Mendenhall running for 304 yards the last 3 games and averaging 5.1 ypr for the season. Willie Parker returned from injury last week but Mendenhall remained the main back and will continue in that role. With a better than average ground game the Steelers are tough to stop, as Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 7.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. The Steelers' pass attack has been particularly potent the last 3 weeks agaisnt worse than average pass defenses (9.1 yppp) and the Vikings have the worst pass defense of any team that Pittsburgh has faced this season. Minnesota is still good defending the run (3.9 ypr allowed), but the Vikings have surrendered 6.5 yppp this season to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.6 yppp against an average defense. Minnesota has had the luxury of facing the sub-par pass attacks of Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, and St. Louis, but they gave up a combined 709 passing yards at 7.9 yppp to better than average passing teams Green Bay and Baltimore, who would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average team. That defense figures to be even worse without All-Pro cornerback Antoine Winfield, who is listed as expected to miss after injuring his foot in the middle of the 2nd quarter last week. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco accumulated just 31 yards on 10 pass plays when Winfield was locking down top receiver Derrick Mason, but Flacco racked up 336 yards on 35 pass plays after Winfield left the game. Pittsburgh would average 8.0 yppp against an average pass defense and they should top 9 yards a pass in this game, as the Vikings' other cornerbacks are just not good. Overall, the Steelers offense (1.1 yppl better than average) has a huge advantage over a Vikings' defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season and at least 0.7 yppl worse than average without their star corner.
My math model predicts a huge 454 yards at 7.2 yppl to 307 yards at 5.2 yppl advantage for Pittsburgh in this game and I favor the Steelers by 5 1/2 points even if I give Minnesota the 4.7 points advantage for special teams. The key is turnovers, which my model projects at just a 0.2 advantage for Minnesota rather than the 2.2 turnovers per game difference between these teams so far this season (Minn +1.33 per game and Pitt -0.83 per game). There isn't any line value here, but Minnesota applies to a negative 92-164-9 ATS scheduling situation and a very negative 13-54-3 ATS statistical indicator that is based on the Vikings' extremely positive turnover margin (it's good to play against teams that have been that lucky with turnovers). With the technical analysis added in the Steelers have a solid 55% chance of covering at -5 1/2 points (56% at -5) and I'll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -6 or -5 1/2 and I'd take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.
Strong Opinion
Buffalo 16 CAROLINA (-7.0) 17
01:05 PM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Carolina covered the spread for the first time all season last week against a horrible Buccaneers squad and they weren't even impressive doing it, getting out-gained 4.9 yards per play to 5.5 yppl. I keep waiting for the Panthers to start playing as well offensively as they should be playing, as I see no reason why the same 11 players from last season's good offense suddenly are struggling. The rushing attack has actually been pretty good (4.4 ypr), but quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has been 0.5 yards per pass play better than average for his career (and was great last year), has averaged just 5.2 yppp this season against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Delhomme just isn't getting the ball downfield like he normally does. Last season his two main receivers, All-Pro Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad, combined for 2344 yards on 236 passes intended for them for a very good 9.9 yards per attempt. This season Delhomme has averaged just 5.5 ypa on 85 passes thrown to Smith and Muhammad. Delhomme is completing 59.4% of his passes, which is the same as his career average of 59.6% completions, but he's averaged just 10.7 yards per completion compared to his lifetime average of 12.2 ypc. Also, the same front line that gave up just 20 sacks of Delhomme last season has already given up 13 sacks in 5 games, and that lack of time to throw may be the reason why Delhomme hasn't been able to get the ball down the field as much. As it is the Panthers have averaged just 4.6 yards per play this season and rate at 0.9 yppl worse than average with Delhomme at quarterback. Buffalo has had to deal with plenty of defensive injuries already this season but they continue to play good defense despite those injuries and I see no reason to adjust their good defensive rating (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) until they show some signs that the injuries are affecting their play. Carolina won't produce much offense if they continue to struggle throwing the ball deep, but the Panthers should run the ball very well in this game.
The Panthers' defense has played well, allowing just 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit, and Buffalo's offense is in bad shape with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback in place of the injured Trent Edwards. The Bills have only averaged 5.0 yards per pass play this season but that number is likely to get worse given that Fitzpatrick has averaged just 4.4 yppp in his career. My math model projects just 232 total yards at 3.8 yppl for the Bills in this game, but that would be enough to cover if Delhomme and the offense play at the level they've consistently played at this season. In fact, my math would favor the Panthers by just 3 points even after adjusting for Fitzpatrick at quarterback for the Bills. If Delhomme suddenly plays at his better than average career level then Carolina would still only be favored by 8 points, so the line wouldn't be too unfair for the Bills even in the worst case scenario that the Panthers suddenly start clicking on offense.
That possibility will keep me from playing the Bills as a Best Bet in this game, but Carolina applies to a very negative 28-71-2 ATS home favorite letdown situation and I'll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion in this game at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Chicago 24 CINCINNATI (-1.0) 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Cincinnati was a team with a mediocre offense and a solid defense that started the season by winning 4 out their 5 close games. The solid defense part of that equation is no more with the season ending injury to pass rushing DE Antwan Odom, who was hurt early in last week's loss to Houston. Odom had 8 sacks and an incredible 18 solo tackles (for a lineman) in just 5 games and he'll be sorely missed. Based on a formula that equates yards per pass play allowed to sack percentage I calculate that Cincinnati's defense will be at least 0.6 yards per pass play worse without Odom (about 2 points per game) if they replace him with a player or players that can register 4 sacks over a full 16 games. That's a big if considering that the other top 7 defensive linemen have combined for just 5 sacks all season and rookie Michael Johnson, who should get the start in place of Odom, has zero sacks. Odom was injured early last week and the Bengals allowed 9.2 yppp to the Texans, so perhaps the Bengals' pass defense will be even worse than expected without Odom.
For the season the Bengals' defense has now allowed 5.4 yards per play to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team and I rate that unit at 0.3 yppl worse than average without Odom, as there will have to be more blitzing to generate a pass rush and that will put pressure on the Bengals' mediocre secondary. Chicago is just average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Bears should move the ball at a pretty efficient rate today with Jay Cutler having more time to throw.
The real advantage in this game is the Bears' stingy defense that has allowed just 4.8 yppl this season and still rates at 0.5 yppl better than average since losing star LB Brian Urlacher in week 1. Cincinnati is just average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl), so the Bengals are at a disadvantage on both sides of the ball in this game. Chicago also has a significant edge in special teams, as the Bears are once again near the top of my special teams ratings (3rd) while Cincinnati ranks 25th in special teams.
My main math model gives Chicago a 59.3% chance of covering in this game, but my other model makes a fair line of Cincinnati by 2 points even after adjusting for Odom's absence. My main model has been good over the years but it's better when the second model, which I've been testing for the last two years, confirms the line value. The combination of the two models results in the Bears having a 54.5% chance of covering, which is certainly good enough to make Chicago a Strong Opinion in this game at pick or as a dog.
The math model chance to cover listed below is based on the historical performance of my model for each difference from the line and does not take into account key numbers or any situational analysis, which may favor the opposite side (as has been the case numerous times this season). Please read my full analysis of a game to find out what my final prediction is. All games not part of the Best Bet email can be found on the site in the free analysis section.
NFL Math Model Predictions
Percent chance of covering based only on math only and does not include any situational analysis.
Listed alphabetically by home team
Team
Rushing
Passing
Total
Pts
Line
Chance
Buffalo
30.0-125, 4.17
30.9-107, 3.45
61.0-232, 3.80
13.7
+7.0
0.550
Carolina
33.2-178, 5.36
30.3-106, 3.51
63.6-284, 4.48
16.5
-7.0
0.450
Chicago
23.7-92, 3.89
37.7-248, 6.57
61.4-340, 5.54
24.8
+1.5
0.593
Cincinnati
27.1-117, 4.33
35.6-191, 5.37
62.7-309, 4.92
18.5
-1.5
0.407
Green Bay
27.4-140, 5.11
36.9-254, 6.87
64.3-394, 6.12
25.2
-7.0
0.498
Cleveland
27.9-96, 3.44
32.3-158, 4.89
60.2-254, 4.22
18.4
+7.0
0.502
Atlanta
25.6-100, 3.89
36.2-290, 8.00
61.8-389, 6.30
27.3
+4.0
0.500
Dallas
29.4-194, 6.61
34.2-273, 7.99
63.6-468, 7.35
31.3
-4.0
0.500
San Francisco
26.6-127, 4.79
33.3-179, 5.39
59.9-307, 5.12
18.3
+3.0
0.467
Houston
24.1-63, 2.61
38.2-299, 7.82
62.3-362, 5.80
24.1
-3.0
0.533
San Diego
22.7-80, 3.54
40.6-313, 7.70
63.3-393, 6.21
24.9
-4.5
0.517
Kansas City
29.6-113, 3.82
32.5-161, 4.95
62.2-274, 4.41
19.0
+4.5
0.483
New Orleans
26.8-102, 3.80
35.3-333, 9.42
62.1-434, 6.99
29.1
-6.0
0.550
Miami
32.5-149, 4.57
27.9-152, 5.44
60.4-300, 4.97
18.9
+6.0
0.450
Arizona
21.0-58, 2.74
37.7-201, 5.32
58.7-258, 4.40
13.4
+7.0
0.439
NY Giants
27.2-80, 2.93
36.3-291, 8.03
63.4-371, 5.85
25.5
-7.0
0.561
Team
Rushing
Passing
Total
Pts
Line
Chance
NY Jets
33.2-182, 5.49
30.8-163, 5.28
63.9-345, 5.39
21.8
-6.0
0.543
Oakland
28.1-103, 3.65
30.5-123, 4.03
58.6-225, 3.85
12.2
+6.0
0.457
Minnesota
24.3-97, 4.00
34.5-210, 6.10
58.7-308, 5.23
23.5
+4.0
0.485
Pittsburgh
24.8-94, 3.81
37.9-360, 9.50
62.7-455, 7.25
28.8
-4.0
0.515
Indianapolis
24.6-97, 3.93
40.2-408, 10.14
64.9-504, 7.78
33.9
-13.0
0.576
St. Louis
25.9-108, 4.17
33.5-140, 4.18
59.4-248, 4.18
14.5
+13.0
0.424
New England
28.9-153, 5.31
36.1-290, 8.03
65.0-443, 6.82
30.4
-14.5
0.498
Tampa Bay
25.0-120, 4.78
32.6-139, 4.26
57.6-258, 4.49
16.1
+14.5
0.502
Philadelphia
25.0-102, 4.08
36.5-216, 5.92
61.4-318, 5.17
21.7
-7.0
0.487
Washington
27.4-102, 3.72
34.1-186, 5.44
61.5-287, 4.67
15.8
+7.0
0.513
Key to Math System Predictions:
Rushing = Run Plays - Rushing Yards, Yards Per Rush (ypr)
Passing = Pass Plays - Passing Yards, Yards Per Pass Play (ypp, includes sacks)
Total = Total Plays - Total Yards, Yards Per Play
Pts = Predicted Points Scored
Line = Point Spread
% = Chance to Cover Spread
