up to post #152
Cajun-Sports Executive NFL-Sunday
NFL: 29-13 (+57.30)
Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Sunday October 19
Game: Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:20 EST October 18
Grade / Prediction: 5* Indianapolis Colts -1
Analysis:
The Green Bay Packers will play host to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. Green Bay checks in with a 3-3 record while Indy is 3-2 on the season.
Green Bay’s QB Aaron Rodgers played with an injured shoulder last week and came away with a 27-17 win in Seattle. Much has been made about how well he has done replacing a legend but if we look at the QB’s he’s defeated so far this season it’s not a list of future Hall-of-Famers. They are Tarvaris Jackson, Jon Kitna and Charlie Frye. That will certainly change today as he faces Peyton Manning and Company.
The Packers win over Seattle was a win but they were facing a team that has been completely decimated by injuries this season. Even with all the injuries Seattle was still able to rush for 113 yards against this Packers defense.
Indianapolis hosted the Baltimore Ravens last week and it was obvious that Manning has caught up with the rest of his team after missing the entire preseason. They defeated a solid Ravens “D” 31 to 3 and Manning appeared to have found his timing with his receivers.
The Colts rushed 30 times for 76 yards and Manning was 19 of 28 for 258 yards. Indy’s defense was able to force the Ravens into five 3 & outs in their first 8 offensive possessions. The Colts defense ranks 4th in the NFL in YPPT with a 17.2 average.
This game will be a huge step up in talent for the Packers and we expect to see a fully focused Indy team on Sunday. The word out of the Colts camp is one of intensity and focus on the job at hand. With the momentum from the Ravens win and the confidence they now have on offense will make it very difficult on the Packers even at Lambeau.
Keys to the game will be the inexperience of the Packers defensive secondary that was thin to start the season and are now without CB Al Harris. This is one area of weakness that you do not want to have when facing Manning and the Colts.
The Packers “D” is allowing almost fifty more yards per game than last season. Their star RB Ryan Grant has yet to break the century mark and has not seen the endzone yet this season. These are all major issues when facing a seasoned Colts team and will be the difference in the game today.
Our Statistical Index favors the Colts in today’s contest by 3.5 points which gives us solid value with Indy only minus 1 on most boards. Our TPR Index has the Colts with a 5.9 point advantage while our PPR Index checks in with a very strong 7.1 edge for the Colts over the Packers on Sunday.
Our Situational Report show the Packers to be in a negative situation that says to Play Against teams with a below average Rushing Attack and an above average Passing Attack. This situations record is 117-52 ATS since 1994. The Packers are also active in another negative situation that says to Play Against teams between Week 7 and Week 12 with a season Interception Differential >=0.75 and their opponent has a Passing Rating of <=0.5. The record for this situation is 70-13 ATS since 1994.
Data base research has uncovered several technical systems that are active for today’s match up. NFL Teams are 23-6-1 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent. The League is 15-6 ATS as a favorite the week after at home in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The League is 15-7 ATS within 3 of pick on the road when they won their last two road games.
NFL Teams are 2-18 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500. NFL Teams are 11-31 ATS within 3 of pick at home the week after on the road in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 2-13 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500 after playing on the road. NFL Teams are 3-12 ATS at home the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing.
The Colts are 7-0 ATS on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Colts are 5-0 ATS within 3 of pick on the road when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games. The Packers are 0-5 ATS as a dog the week before their bye.
The combination of fundamental, technical and situational factors make the Indianapolis Colts our 5* NFL Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Indianapolis Colts -1
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday October 19
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:15 EST October 18
Grade / Prediction: 4* Tennessee Titans -9
Analysis:
Kansas City Chiefs will host the only unbeaten team left in the league in the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Both teams enter today’s contest off of their bye week.
Last season in this match up the Titans went into KC and defeated the Chiefs 28 to 17. Chiefs QB Croyle threw for 217 yards two TD’s and two INT’s.
KC has been outgained in ten straight games at home scoring 13 or less points in five of those contests. That’s bad news for the host as the Titans with DT Haynesworth in the lineup are only allowing 75 yards rushing per game and they have 44 QB sacks. In the 16 games that Haynesworth has been in the Titans lineup they have allowed 13 or less points in ten of those games and are 14-2 SU and 12-3-1 ATS during that span.
Kansas City’s struggles on offense trigger a technical situation that says Tennessee is 13-4 ATS in road games facing a team that averages <=4.75 yards per play since 1992. Much of the Titans success has been because of their stingy defense that has held opponents to 288.6 yards per game - fourth-best in the NFL - and a league-low 11.2 points a contest while leading the NFL with 14 turnovers.
Tennessee hopes to strengthen its offense, which has averaged 289.0 yards and was limited to a season-low 210 versus the Ravens. Quarterback Kerry Collins was intercepted twice, but went 17-of-32 for 163 yards and his 11-yard touchdown pass to Alge Crumpler with 1:56 to play was the difference in the game.
The Titans might be able to improve their offensive production versus a Chiefs team that has allowed 396.6 yards per game - fourth-worst in the league.
Unlike Tennessee, Kansas City was dealing with several distractions during its bye week. On Tuesday afternoon, it was announced that nine-time Pro Bowler Tony Gonzalez would remain with the team, following 10 tense days in which it was thought he might be traded to a contending club.
The longtime face of the struggling franchise and the league's all-time leader among tight ends in receptions (841), receiving yards (10,075) and TD catches (68) - assured his teammates in a player’s only meeting Wednesday that he wasn't bitter about the outcome of the situation.
The Chiefs, though, won't have star running back Larry Johnson available this week after the team suspended him for one game for an undisclosed violation of team rules. Johnson leads the team in rushing with 417 yards. However, the two-time Pro Bowler was held to two yards on seven attempts in a demoralizing 34-0 loss at Carolina on Oct. 5 in the Chiefs' most recent outing.
With the Titans 5-0 and coming off a bye week one might be concerned that they will not be focused on the game at hand. This angle puts that thought to rest, Titan’s Head Coach Jeff Fisher is 13-3 ATS in road games when facing a team with a win percentage <=25% in all games he has coached since 1992. Tennessee is 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten games off their bye week.
One of the most important statistics in football is yards per point and Tennessee is ranked number 1 in defensive YPPT with a rating of 23.9 and on offense their rating ranks them at number 5 in the NFL with a rating of 12.5.
Data base research has uncovered several technical systems that are active for today’s game. NFL Teams are 51-26 ATS as a favorite the week after their bye. The League is 42-19 ATS as a 7+ favorite when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. NFL Teams are 8-0 ATS as a road favorite the week after their bye. NFL Teams are 0-8 ATS as a home dog when their opponent is off their bye. NFL Teams are 18-30-1 ATS as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30.
Tennessee does have a Monday Night affair on deck against a divisional opponent but we know that NFL Teams are 14-2-1 ATS as a favorite the week before playing in that particular situation since 2001. Very unlikely that Coach Fishers team will be caught looking ahead.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says to Play ON an undefeated favorite off a BYE with a TOTAL of 34-49½ points and not a shutout SU win in its last game, 20-0 ATS since 2001.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tennessee Titans -9
Time / Date: 8:15 EST / Sunday October 19 (NBC TV)
Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:52 EST October 18
Grade / Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5
Analysis:
The Sunday night NFL Featured Game of the Week is in Tampa where the Bucs will host the Seattle Seahawks. Tampa is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS while Seattle checks in with a 1-4 record both SU and ATS.
Seattle Coach Mike Holmgren didn’t envision going out quite like this we don’t believe. He has been successful in his coaching career and at Seattle but his final season has been marked by multiple injuries and a defense that can’t stop anyone.
Seattle has allowed 30.2 points per game over the first five games of the season. They have really struggled on the highway with a record of 3-8 both SU and ATS having allowed an unbelievable 41 points per game over the last four.
Seattle is 17-44 ATS during the month of October since 1992. They are also 11-26 ATS on the road in weeks 5 thru 9 since 1992. Another negative for the Seahawks is they have to make the long trip east and they are 4-14 ATS in that situation and 7-14 ATS as a road underdog.
The Seahawks now face a team that is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS at home outscoring opponents 27 to 11. Tampa’s “D” ranks second in the league in YPPT with a rating of 19.3. This is a terrible sign for a struggling offense as the Bucs defense has been solid allowing Carolina only 3 points last week.
In some cases Gruden’s teams have let down after a home win but in this case they will be focused and looking for a little revenge as Seattle has defeated them the last three times they have faced off.
The Seahawks are 4-13 ATS as a 7+ dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 14-2-2 ATS at home when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS as a home 7+ favorite versus a non-divisional opponent.
Data base research has uncovered a few technical systems that are active for tonight’s game. NFL Teams are 8-29-1 ATS as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 2-16 ATS as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent.
NFL Teams are 53-23-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 31-13 ATS as a home favorite the week after a straight up win at home in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 16-2 ATS as a home favorite the week after at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 16-3 ATS as a home favorite after a home game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.
Our TPR Index shows Tampa with a 12.7 point advantage over the Seahawks in tonight’s contest. Our Player Performance Ratings Index also has Tampa with the edge in this contest with a 14.5 differential. Our Math and Statistical Indicators both have Tampa winning this game with ease.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says to Play ON a home favorite of 3½-16 points with a TOTAL of 46 points or less off a home SU win of 22+ points (not as a favorite of more than 2 points) in its last game, 10-0 ATS since 1988.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday October 19
Game: San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants
Line Origin: BetCris @ 2:18 EST October 17
Grade / Prediction: 4* San Francisco / New York Over 46.5
Analysis:
The New York Giants return home off their Monday Night disaster losing to the Browns in Cleveland 35 to 14. They play host to the San Francisco 49ers that were defeated by the Philadelphia Eagles last week 40 to 26.
Despite the loss, the Giants' still lead the NFL with 419.4 total yards and 181.2 rushing yards per game. They are also averaging 6.1 yards per rush. Those numbers could indicate a mismatch against a 49ers defensive unit that ranks 26th in the NFL.
That defense proved San Francisco's undoing at home last Sunday against Philadelphia. The 49ers led by nine points entering the fourth quarter, but yielded 23 points in the final 11:38 en route to a 40-26 defeat.
The Giants offense has become one of the top two or three in the league. Even in the loss to the Browns on Monday night they averaged 6.9 yards per play. The key to their offensive transformation has been the improved play of QB Eli Manning. Manning has averaged 7.2 yards per pass play this season while only throwing four INT’s and three of those came in the Monday night game against the Browns.
New York’s defense was playing rather well during the first four games of the season allowing 4.9 yards per play. Then came game number five and they allowed the Cleveland Browns to average 8.1 yards per play in the loss.
San Francisco’s offense has shown promise at times this season. The 49ers have been able to move the ball on offense averaging 5.6 yards per play. The key for the 49ers offense is for their QB JT O’Sullivan to limit the INT’s, he has thrown seven interceptions during the three-game losing streak after throwing only one INT the first three games.
If O'Sullivan continues to struggle, the 49ers may need to rely even more heavily on RB Frank Gore, whose 524 rushing yards rank fourth in the NFL. He also leads San Francisco with 22 receptions for 196 yards.
Gore was a relative bright spot for the 49ers when they visited New York last Oct. 21, gaining 111 yards of total offense, but four turnovers helped undo San Francisco in a 33-15 defeat.
San Francisco’s defense has given up 101 points over their three-game losing skid. On the road the 49ers “D” averages allowing 30.5 points per game while their offense has been able to score on the highway with an average of 25 points per game. This type of play from the 49ers will help send this Total over the posted number.
New York has averaged 28.7 points per game on offense when playing at home and over the last three games their defense has given up an average of 21.3 points per game. All numbers pointing to an “Over” in today’s contest.
Our Offensive Efficiency Index actually has the 49ers with a better rating than the Giants. The 49ers check in with an Index Rating of 13.07 while the Giants come in with an Index Rating of 14.87. Remember the lower the number the more efficient the offense.
On the technical front we know that teams from the West Coast playing a team on the East Coast have gone “Over” the posted total in 21 of 28 games as long as it’s game number 7 or less on the year. If our West Coast team is an underdog the record improves to 20 out of 25 “Over” and if they are a dog of 7 or more points that record is 9 out of 10 “Over” in this situation. We also note that game six teams off their first loss of the season are 9-1 Over in their next contest if that loss occurred on the highway.
The 49ers are 8-1 Over the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 7-0 Over when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The 49ers are 11-3 Over the week after a straight up loss in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 10-1 Over versus the NFC East, 5-1 Over facing an opponent coming off a Monday Night game and 5-1 Over off back-to-back home games.
The Giants are 10-1 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 10-1-1 Over after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 14-5 Over as a favorite the week after on the road in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 6-0 Over at home the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 6-0 Over as a favorite the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 12-3 Over at home when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Giants are 14-4 Over as a favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak.
NFL Teams are 22-11 Over as a dog after a straight up loss as a home dog. NFL Teams are 15-5 Over when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. NFL Teams are 14-3 Over when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 at home as a dog. NFL Teams are 42-23-1 Over as a dog after a straight up loss as a dog. NFL Teams are 61-35-1 Over the week after in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The League is 12-0 Over as a favorite the week after a road game in which they got a first down on at least 40% of their offensive plays. NFL Teams are 40-17-2 Over as a favorite when they lost by 21+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent. NFL Teams are 21-7 Over as a favorite the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The League is 16-6 Over as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
With strong fundamental support and several technical indicators active for this contest we will make this our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week for Week 7 of the NFL Season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* San Francisco / New York Over 46.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday October 19
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:23 EST October 17
Grade / Prediction: 3* Tennessee / Kansas City Over 35.5
Analysis:
The Kansas City Chiefs play host to the only remaining undefeated AFC team, the Tennessee Titans. Both teams enter this contest off of their bye week and the Chiefs certainly needed something as they were soundly defeated at Carolina 34 to 0 their last game before the bye.
A quick look at the numbers for each team we see that the Titans have averaged 24.7 points per game over their last three while their defense allowed 13 points per game. The Chiefs are averaging 20 points per game offensively at home this season while their defense is allowing 21 points per game on the year.
The loss by KC at Carolina triggers a technical situation that tells us to play the “Over” with any team after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half facing an opponent after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less in their last game. This situation has posted a record of 72-37 Over since 1983.
Kansas City’s inability to rush the football (17 rushes / 35 yards) in their game against Carolina makes them active in another very strong technical situation. The situation says to “Play Over” with any team after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in their last game facing an opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards (22 rushes / 47 yards) in their last game. This technical situation has posted a record of 32-7 Over the last five seasons.
The fact the Chiefs were shutout in their last game makes them active in another technical situation for today’s contest. Teams that were shutout in their last game and lost by 28 or more points are 7-0-1 Over the last four years.
The Titans last game triggers a technical situation for them that says to “Play Over” on NFL road teams after allowing 3 points or less in the first half of their last game and now facing an opponent that scored 14 points or less in their last game. This tech set has posted a record of 48-25 Over the last five years.
Tennessee’s unblemished record makes them active in this technical situation. Teams playing their sixth game of the season with a perfect 5-0 record have posted an 11-2 Over record and a 10-0 Over record if they are facing a non-division opponent. Also teams that are off five straight wins both SU and ATS during the month of October are a perfect 5-0 Over when installed as a non-division road favorite.
Tennessee is 20-6 Over when facing teams that allow >=350 yards per game since 1992. 13-3 Over off a close road win of 3 points or less in their last game. 12-3 Over when facing teams that allow >=350 yards per game since 1992. The Titans are 12-5 Over on the road when they won and covered their last two games. Kansas City is 6-0 Over in game six of the season. 4-0 Over at home off their bye week and 5-1 Over off a loss of twenty-one or more points in their last game. The Chiefs are 12-3 Over as a dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Chiefs are 14-3-1 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Chiefs are 6-0 Over when facing an undefeated team after Week One.
NFL Teams are 15-5 Over as a home 7+ dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 13-6 Over as a home 7+ dog when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. NFL Teams are 43-23-2 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.
Strong technical support plus solid fundamental indicators help make this an easy Over Selection on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Tennessee / Kansas City Over 35.5
Cajun-Sports Executive NFL-Sunday
NFL: 29-13 (+57.30)
Time / Date: 4:15 EST / Sunday October 19
Game: Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:20 EST October 18
Grade / Prediction: 5* Indianapolis Colts -1
Analysis:
The Green Bay Packers will play host to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. Green Bay checks in with a 3-3 record while Indy is 3-2 on the season.
Green Bay’s QB Aaron Rodgers played with an injured shoulder last week and came away with a 27-17 win in Seattle. Much has been made about how well he has done replacing a legend but if we look at the QB’s he’s defeated so far this season it’s not a list of future Hall-of-Famers. They are Tarvaris Jackson, Jon Kitna and Charlie Frye. That will certainly change today as he faces Peyton Manning and Company.
The Packers win over Seattle was a win but they were facing a team that has been completely decimated by injuries this season. Even with all the injuries Seattle was still able to rush for 113 yards against this Packers defense.
Indianapolis hosted the Baltimore Ravens last week and it was obvious that Manning has caught up with the rest of his team after missing the entire preseason. They defeated a solid Ravens “D” 31 to 3 and Manning appeared to have found his timing with his receivers.
The Colts rushed 30 times for 76 yards and Manning was 19 of 28 for 258 yards. Indy’s defense was able to force the Ravens into five 3 & outs in their first 8 offensive possessions. The Colts defense ranks 4th in the NFL in YPPT with a 17.2 average.
This game will be a huge step up in talent for the Packers and we expect to see a fully focused Indy team on Sunday. The word out of the Colts camp is one of intensity and focus on the job at hand. With the momentum from the Ravens win and the confidence they now have on offense will make it very difficult on the Packers even at Lambeau.
Keys to the game will be the inexperience of the Packers defensive secondary that was thin to start the season and are now without CB Al Harris. This is one area of weakness that you do not want to have when facing Manning and the Colts.
The Packers “D” is allowing almost fifty more yards per game than last season. Their star RB Ryan Grant has yet to break the century mark and has not seen the endzone yet this season. These are all major issues when facing a seasoned Colts team and will be the difference in the game today.
Our Statistical Index favors the Colts in today’s contest by 3.5 points which gives us solid value with Indy only minus 1 on most boards. Our TPR Index has the Colts with a 5.9 point advantage while our PPR Index checks in with a very strong 7.1 edge for the Colts over the Packers on Sunday.
Our Situational Report show the Packers to be in a negative situation that says to Play Against teams with a below average Rushing Attack and an above average Passing Attack. This situations record is 117-52 ATS since 1994. The Packers are also active in another negative situation that says to Play Against teams between Week 7 and Week 12 with a season Interception Differential >=0.75 and their opponent has a Passing Rating of <=0.5. The record for this situation is 70-13 ATS since 1994.
Data base research has uncovered several technical systems that are active for today’s match up. NFL Teams are 23-6-1 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent. The League is 15-6 ATS as a favorite the week after at home in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The League is 15-7 ATS within 3 of pick on the road when they won their last two road games.
NFL Teams are 2-18 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500. NFL Teams are 11-31 ATS within 3 of pick at home the week after on the road in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 2-13 ATS within 3 of pick at home when they are 500 after playing on the road. NFL Teams are 3-12 ATS at home the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing.
The Colts are 7-0 ATS on the road versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Colts are 5-0 ATS within 3 of pick on the road when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games. The Packers are 0-5 ATS as a dog the week before their bye.
The combination of fundamental, technical and situational factors make the Indianapolis Colts our 5* NFL Game of the Week.
GRADED PREDICTION: 5* Indianapolis Colts -1
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday October 19
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:15 EST October 18
Grade / Prediction: 4* Tennessee Titans -9
Analysis:
Kansas City Chiefs will host the only unbeaten team left in the league in the Tennessee Titans on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Both teams enter today’s contest off of their bye week.
Last season in this match up the Titans went into KC and defeated the Chiefs 28 to 17. Chiefs QB Croyle threw for 217 yards two TD’s and two INT’s.
KC has been outgained in ten straight games at home scoring 13 or less points in five of those contests. That’s bad news for the host as the Titans with DT Haynesworth in the lineup are only allowing 75 yards rushing per game and they have 44 QB sacks. In the 16 games that Haynesworth has been in the Titans lineup they have allowed 13 or less points in ten of those games and are 14-2 SU and 12-3-1 ATS during that span.
Kansas City’s struggles on offense trigger a technical situation that says Tennessee is 13-4 ATS in road games facing a team that averages <=4.75 yards per play since 1992. Much of the Titans success has been because of their stingy defense that has held opponents to 288.6 yards per game - fourth-best in the NFL - and a league-low 11.2 points a contest while leading the NFL with 14 turnovers.
Tennessee hopes to strengthen its offense, which has averaged 289.0 yards and was limited to a season-low 210 versus the Ravens. Quarterback Kerry Collins was intercepted twice, but went 17-of-32 for 163 yards and his 11-yard touchdown pass to Alge Crumpler with 1:56 to play was the difference in the game.
The Titans might be able to improve their offensive production versus a Chiefs team that has allowed 396.6 yards per game - fourth-worst in the league.
Unlike Tennessee, Kansas City was dealing with several distractions during its bye week. On Tuesday afternoon, it was announced that nine-time Pro Bowler Tony Gonzalez would remain with the team, following 10 tense days in which it was thought he might be traded to a contending club.
The longtime face of the struggling franchise and the league's all-time leader among tight ends in receptions (841), receiving yards (10,075) and TD catches (68) - assured his teammates in a player’s only meeting Wednesday that he wasn't bitter about the outcome of the situation.
The Chiefs, though, won't have star running back Larry Johnson available this week after the team suspended him for one game for an undisclosed violation of team rules. Johnson leads the team in rushing with 417 yards. However, the two-time Pro Bowler was held to two yards on seven attempts in a demoralizing 34-0 loss at Carolina on Oct. 5 in the Chiefs' most recent outing.
With the Titans 5-0 and coming off a bye week one might be concerned that they will not be focused on the game at hand. This angle puts that thought to rest, Titan’s Head Coach Jeff Fisher is 13-3 ATS in road games when facing a team with a win percentage <=25% in all games he has coached since 1992. Tennessee is 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten games off their bye week.
One of the most important statistics in football is yards per point and Tennessee is ranked number 1 in defensive YPPT with a rating of 23.9 and on offense their rating ranks them at number 5 in the NFL with a rating of 12.5.
Data base research has uncovered several technical systems that are active for today’s game. NFL Teams are 51-26 ATS as a favorite the week after their bye. The League is 42-19 ATS as a 7+ favorite when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. NFL Teams are 8-0 ATS as a road favorite the week after their bye. NFL Teams are 0-8 ATS as a home dog when their opponent is off their bye. NFL Teams are 18-30-1 ATS as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30.
Tennessee does have a Monday Night affair on deck against a divisional opponent but we know that NFL Teams are 14-2-1 ATS as a favorite the week before playing in that particular situation since 2001. Very unlikely that Coach Fishers team will be caught looking ahead.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says to Play ON an undefeated favorite off a BYE with a TOTAL of 34-49½ points and not a shutout SU win in its last game, 20-0 ATS since 2001.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tennessee Titans -9
Time / Date: 8:15 EST / Sunday October 19 (NBC TV)
Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 6:52 EST October 18
Grade / Prediction: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5
Analysis:
The Sunday night NFL Featured Game of the Week is in Tampa where the Bucs will host the Seattle Seahawks. Tampa is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS while Seattle checks in with a 1-4 record both SU and ATS.
Seattle Coach Mike Holmgren didn’t envision going out quite like this we don’t believe. He has been successful in his coaching career and at Seattle but his final season has been marked by multiple injuries and a defense that can’t stop anyone.
Seattle has allowed 30.2 points per game over the first five games of the season. They have really struggled on the highway with a record of 3-8 both SU and ATS having allowed an unbelievable 41 points per game over the last four.
Seattle is 17-44 ATS during the month of October since 1992. They are also 11-26 ATS on the road in weeks 5 thru 9 since 1992. Another negative for the Seahawks is they have to make the long trip east and they are 4-14 ATS in that situation and 7-14 ATS as a road underdog.
The Seahawks now face a team that is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS at home outscoring opponents 27 to 11. Tampa’s “D” ranks second in the league in YPPT with a rating of 19.3. This is a terrible sign for a struggling offense as the Bucs defense has been solid allowing Carolina only 3 points last week.
In some cases Gruden’s teams have let down after a home win but in this case they will be focused and looking for a little revenge as Seattle has defeated them the last three times they have faced off.
The Seahawks are 4-13 ATS as a 7+ dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 14-2-2 ATS at home when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS as a home 7+ favorite versus a non-divisional opponent.
Data base research has uncovered a few technical systems that are active for tonight’s game. NFL Teams are 8-29-1 ATS as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 2-16 ATS as a road dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent.
NFL Teams are 53-23-3 ATS as a favorite versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 31-13 ATS as a home favorite the week after a straight up win at home in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 16-2 ATS as a home favorite the week after at home when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. NFL Teams are 16-3 ATS as a home favorite after a home game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.
Our TPR Index shows Tampa with a 12.7 point advantage over the Seahawks in tonight’s contest. Our Player Performance Ratings Index also has Tampa with the edge in this contest with a 14.5 differential. Our Math and Statistical Indicators both have Tampa winning this game with ease.
Finally we have an NFL Power System that says to Play ON a home favorite of 3½-16 points with a TOTAL of 46 points or less off a home SU win of 22+ points (not as a favorite of more than 2 points) in its last game, 10-0 ATS since 1988.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday October 19
Game: San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants
Line Origin: BetCris @ 2:18 EST October 17
Grade / Prediction: 4* San Francisco / New York Over 46.5
Analysis:
The New York Giants return home off their Monday Night disaster losing to the Browns in Cleveland 35 to 14. They play host to the San Francisco 49ers that were defeated by the Philadelphia Eagles last week 40 to 26.
Despite the loss, the Giants' still lead the NFL with 419.4 total yards and 181.2 rushing yards per game. They are also averaging 6.1 yards per rush. Those numbers could indicate a mismatch against a 49ers defensive unit that ranks 26th in the NFL.
That defense proved San Francisco's undoing at home last Sunday against Philadelphia. The 49ers led by nine points entering the fourth quarter, but yielded 23 points in the final 11:38 en route to a 40-26 defeat.
The Giants offense has become one of the top two or three in the league. Even in the loss to the Browns on Monday night they averaged 6.9 yards per play. The key to their offensive transformation has been the improved play of QB Eli Manning. Manning has averaged 7.2 yards per pass play this season while only throwing four INT’s and three of those came in the Monday night game against the Browns.
New York’s defense was playing rather well during the first four games of the season allowing 4.9 yards per play. Then came game number five and they allowed the Cleveland Browns to average 8.1 yards per play in the loss.
San Francisco’s offense has shown promise at times this season. The 49ers have been able to move the ball on offense averaging 5.6 yards per play. The key for the 49ers offense is for their QB JT O’Sullivan to limit the INT’s, he has thrown seven interceptions during the three-game losing streak after throwing only one INT the first three games.
If O'Sullivan continues to struggle, the 49ers may need to rely even more heavily on RB Frank Gore, whose 524 rushing yards rank fourth in the NFL. He also leads San Francisco with 22 receptions for 196 yards.
Gore was a relative bright spot for the 49ers when they visited New York last Oct. 21, gaining 111 yards of total offense, but four turnovers helped undo San Francisco in a 33-15 defeat.
San Francisco’s defense has given up 101 points over their three-game losing skid. On the road the 49ers “D” averages allowing 30.5 points per game while their offense has been able to score on the highway with an average of 25 points per game. This type of play from the 49ers will help send this Total over the posted number.
New York has averaged 28.7 points per game on offense when playing at home and over the last three games their defense has given up an average of 21.3 points per game. All numbers pointing to an “Over” in today’s contest.
Our Offensive Efficiency Index actually has the 49ers with a better rating than the Giants. The 49ers check in with an Index Rating of 13.07 while the Giants come in with an Index Rating of 14.87. Remember the lower the number the more efficient the offense.
On the technical front we know that teams from the West Coast playing a team on the East Coast have gone “Over” the posted total in 21 of 28 games as long as it’s game number 7 or less on the year. If our West Coast team is an underdog the record improves to 20 out of 25 “Over” and if they are a dog of 7 or more points that record is 9 out of 10 “Over” in this situation. We also note that game six teams off their first loss of the season are 9-1 Over in their next contest if that loss occurred on the highway.
The 49ers are 8-1 Over the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 7-0 Over when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The 49ers are 11-3 Over the week after a straight up loss in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 10-1 Over versus the NFC East, 5-1 Over facing an opponent coming off a Monday Night game and 5-1 Over off back-to-back home games.
The Giants are 10-1 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 10-1-1 Over after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 14-5 Over as a favorite the week after on the road in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 6-0 Over at home the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 6-0 Over as a favorite the week after in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 12-3 Over at home when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Giants are 14-4 Over as a favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak.
NFL Teams are 22-11 Over as a dog after a straight up loss as a home dog. NFL Teams are 15-5 Over when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. NFL Teams are 14-3 Over when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 at home as a dog. NFL Teams are 42-23-1 Over as a dog after a straight up loss as a dog. NFL Teams are 61-35-1 Over the week after in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The League is 12-0 Over as a favorite the week after a road game in which they got a first down on at least 40% of their offensive plays. NFL Teams are 40-17-2 Over as a favorite when they lost by 21+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent. NFL Teams are 21-7 Over as a favorite the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The League is 16-6 Over as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
With strong fundamental support and several technical indicators active for this contest we will make this our NFL 4* Total Game of the Week for Week 7 of the NFL Season.
GRADED PREDICTION: 4* San Francisco / New York Over 46.5
Time / Date: 1:00 EST / Sunday October 19
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Line Origin: BetCris @ 4:23 EST October 17
Grade / Prediction: 3* Tennessee / Kansas City Over 35.5
Analysis:
The Kansas City Chiefs play host to the only remaining undefeated AFC team, the Tennessee Titans. Both teams enter this contest off of their bye week and the Chiefs certainly needed something as they were soundly defeated at Carolina 34 to 0 their last game before the bye.
A quick look at the numbers for each team we see that the Titans have averaged 24.7 points per game over their last three while their defense allowed 13 points per game. The Chiefs are averaging 20 points per game offensively at home this season while their defense is allowing 21 points per game on the year.
The loss by KC at Carolina triggers a technical situation that tells us to play the “Over” with any team after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half facing an opponent after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less in their last game. This situation has posted a record of 72-37 Over since 1983.
Kansas City’s inability to rush the football (17 rushes / 35 yards) in their game against Carolina makes them active in another very strong technical situation. The situation says to “Play Over” with any team after gaining 50 or less rushing yards in their last game facing an opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards (22 rushes / 47 yards) in their last game. This technical situation has posted a record of 32-7 Over the last five seasons.
The fact the Chiefs were shutout in their last game makes them active in another technical situation for today’s contest. Teams that were shutout in their last game and lost by 28 or more points are 7-0-1 Over the last four years.
The Titans last game triggers a technical situation for them that says to “Play Over” on NFL road teams after allowing 3 points or less in the first half of their last game and now facing an opponent that scored 14 points or less in their last game. This tech set has posted a record of 48-25 Over the last five years.
Tennessee’s unblemished record makes them active in this technical situation. Teams playing their sixth game of the season with a perfect 5-0 record have posted an 11-2 Over record and a 10-0 Over record if they are facing a non-division opponent. Also teams that are off five straight wins both SU and ATS during the month of October are a perfect 5-0 Over when installed as a non-division road favorite.
Tennessee is 20-6 Over when facing teams that allow >=350 yards per game since 1992. 13-3 Over off a close road win of 3 points or less in their last game. 12-3 Over when facing teams that allow >=350 yards per game since 1992. The Titans are 12-5 Over on the road when they won and covered their last two games. Kansas City is 6-0 Over in game six of the season. 4-0 Over at home off their bye week and 5-1 Over off a loss of twenty-one or more points in their last game. The Chiefs are 12-3 Over as a dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date. The Chiefs are 14-3-1 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Chiefs are 6-0 Over when facing an undefeated team after Week One.
NFL Teams are 15-5 Over as a home 7+ dog versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. NFL Teams are 13-6 Over as a home 7+ dog when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. NFL Teams are 43-23-2 Over versus a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.
Strong technical support plus solid fundamental indicators help make this an easy Over Selection on Sunday.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Tennessee / Kansas City Over 35.5
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