Scott Spreitzer
NFL Side
triple-dime bet 267 BAL -3.0 (-130) 5Dimes vs 268 TAM
Analysis: I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore couldn't get the offense in gear against the Colts last weekend, thanks in part to 3 turnovers. They finished the 20-13 loss out-gained by more than 100 yards, but that's been a buy sign under John Harbaugh. The Ravens usually turn a bad week around rather quickly, going 14-4 ATS after getting out-gained by at least 100 yards during the Harbaugh-era. They've averaged 25 ppg, while allowing just 15 ppg in those 18 contests. Baltimore will face a less than imposing Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th in both yards passing allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. They're also just 18th against the run and allow a whopping 31.2 ppg, including 39 ppg the last three weeks. Yes, the Bucs offense has shown better under QB Mike Glennon than it did with Josh McCown behind center. But facing the Ravens' defense is a notch or two tougher than the Saints' unit they faced last week. And dig deeper than last week's final score and you'll see the Bucs only gained 314 yards...out-gained by 197 yards! Tampa Bay scored 10 points off of 19 and 40 yard drives and scored another TD off a pick-6. I suspect the Buccaneers will be unable to run the football and if that's the case, Glennon could be in for some trouble. Besides the 14-4 ATS spot mentioned above, Tampa Bay is just 13-31-1 ATS in their last 45 home games, including a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm laying the points with the Ravens, my Smackdown release.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:12PM PST
NFL Side
dime bet 260 MIA 3.0 (-115) Bookmaker.com vs 259 GBP
Analysis: I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Tough spot for the Packers who are off back-to-back divisional wins and three straight games within the NFC North, overall. After losing to Detroit, Green Bay knocked-off Chicago, despite getting out-gained 496-358. In fact, the Packers' final 17 points came on drives of 35, 35, and 11 yards. Then, after beating a mistake-prone Chicago team, the Pack caught Minnesota at the perfect time with Teddy Bridgewater injured and 3rd-string QB Christian Ponder forced to start behind center. Miami will now be the team in the prime spot and will face a Packer squad that hasn't been able to run (25th) or stop the run (32nd). Miami does both pretty well, especially on offense where they rank 4th in the league running the football. Dolphins' RB Knowshon Moreno is expected to be back and I believe the running game will be a difference maker even if he's on the sideline. Add in the scheduling advantage for Miami, off a bye week, while Green Bay is in the tough spot mentioned above and the Dolphins are in prime position to garner a home win. Miami enters on a 10-4 ATS run at home, including a 6-0 ATS record as a home underdog under HC Philbin. I'm grabbing the points with the Dolphins, my Blockbuster on Sunday.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:17PM PST
NFL Side
double-dime bet 253 PIT 1.5 (-110) BetOnline vs 254 CLE
Analysis: I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The Steelers were dominating the Cleveland Browns in week-1, leading 27-3 at halftime. But the Browns gave us a preview of things to come, clawing their way back in the game, before Pittsburgh finally wrapped things up with a 30-27 win. The Steelers out-gained Cleveland 503-389 and averaged 7.5 yards per play. This time, I expect Pittsburgh to grab the lead and not let off the gas. We went against the Steelers a couple weeks ago and cashed when they blew a lead against Tampa Bay. Last week, the Steelers were able to sneak out a cover in a 17-9 win over Jacksonville. But again, it was a lackluster performance, looking a bit hungover from the ugly loss to the Buccaneers. Nothing like a game against a division rival to get your focus back and that's what we have in this one. The Steelers (3-2) can't afford to lose ground in the AFC North with Cincy at 3-1 and Baltimore at 3-2, and I'm betting they won't. The Browns defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially on the ground. There are just four NFL teams that allow at least 5 yards per carry and Cleveland is one. I expect Pittsburgh to send a steady diet of Le'Veon Bell right at the soft stop unit. When Bell plows the road, Big Ben can go to work. Roethlisberger has completed 69% of his passes this season with a 7:2 TD:INT ratio. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL in total yards per game, equally effective on the ground and through the air (8th in both). And unlike Cleveland, the Steelers play some defense. NFL teams (and in this case Pittsburgh) are 59-28 ATS when they hold teams to an average of 295-335 yards per game, provided their opponent owns bad defensive numbers, those allowing at least 370 yards per game. Pittsburgh is on a 9-4 ATS run, overall, and they're on a 5-1 ATS run on the road. No revenge here. I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers, my Knockout Shocker.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:16PM PST
NFL Side
triple-dime bet 267 BAL -3.0 (-130) 5Dimes vs 268 TAM
Analysis: I'm laying the points with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore couldn't get the offense in gear against the Colts last weekend, thanks in part to 3 turnovers. They finished the 20-13 loss out-gained by more than 100 yards, but that's been a buy sign under John Harbaugh. The Ravens usually turn a bad week around rather quickly, going 14-4 ATS after getting out-gained by at least 100 yards during the Harbaugh-era. They've averaged 25 ppg, while allowing just 15 ppg in those 18 contests. Baltimore will face a less than imposing Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th in both yards passing allowed per game and total yards allowed per game. They're also just 18th against the run and allow a whopping 31.2 ppg, including 39 ppg the last three weeks. Yes, the Bucs offense has shown better under QB Mike Glennon than it did with Josh McCown behind center. But facing the Ravens' defense is a notch or two tougher than the Saints' unit they faced last week. And dig deeper than last week's final score and you'll see the Bucs only gained 314 yards...out-gained by 197 yards! Tampa Bay scored 10 points off of 19 and 40 yard drives and scored another TD off a pick-6. I suspect the Buccaneers will be unable to run the football and if that's the case, Glennon could be in for some trouble. Besides the 14-4 ATS spot mentioned above, Tampa Bay is just 13-31-1 ATS in their last 45 home games, including a 1-5-1 ATS slide at home against teams with a winning road record. I'm laying the points with the Ravens, my Smackdown release.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:12PM PST
NFL Side
dime bet 260 MIA 3.0 (-115) Bookmaker.com vs 259 GBP
Analysis: I'm taking the points with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Tough spot for the Packers who are off back-to-back divisional wins and three straight games within the NFC North, overall. After losing to Detroit, Green Bay knocked-off Chicago, despite getting out-gained 496-358. In fact, the Packers' final 17 points came on drives of 35, 35, and 11 yards. Then, after beating a mistake-prone Chicago team, the Pack caught Minnesota at the perfect time with Teddy Bridgewater injured and 3rd-string QB Christian Ponder forced to start behind center. Miami will now be the team in the prime spot and will face a Packer squad that hasn't been able to run (25th) or stop the run (32nd). Miami does both pretty well, especially on offense where they rank 4th in the league running the football. Dolphins' RB Knowshon Moreno is expected to be back and I believe the running game will be a difference maker even if he's on the sideline. Add in the scheduling advantage for Miami, off a bye week, while Green Bay is in the tough spot mentioned above and the Dolphins are in prime position to garner a home win. Miami enters on a 10-4 ATS run at home, including a 6-0 ATS record as a home underdog under HC Philbin. I'm grabbing the points with the Dolphins, my Blockbuster on Sunday.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:17PM PST
NFL Side
double-dime bet 253 PIT 1.5 (-110) BetOnline vs 254 CLE
Analysis: I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. The Steelers were dominating the Cleveland Browns in week-1, leading 27-3 at halftime. But the Browns gave us a preview of things to come, clawing their way back in the game, before Pittsburgh finally wrapped things up with a 30-27 win. The Steelers out-gained Cleveland 503-389 and averaged 7.5 yards per play. This time, I expect Pittsburgh to grab the lead and not let off the gas. We went against the Steelers a couple weeks ago and cashed when they blew a lead against Tampa Bay. Last week, the Steelers were able to sneak out a cover in a 17-9 win over Jacksonville. But again, it was a lackluster performance, looking a bit hungover from the ugly loss to the Buccaneers. Nothing like a game against a division rival to get your focus back and that's what we have in this one. The Steelers (3-2) can't afford to lose ground in the AFC North with Cincy at 3-1 and Baltimore at 3-2, and I'm betting they won't. The Browns defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially on the ground. There are just four NFL teams that allow at least 5 yards per carry and Cleveland is one. I expect Pittsburgh to send a steady diet of Le'Veon Bell right at the soft stop unit. When Bell plows the road, Big Ben can go to work. Roethlisberger has completed 69% of his passes this season with a 7:2 TD:INT ratio. The Steelers are 4th in the NFL in total yards per game, equally effective on the ground and through the air (8th in both). And unlike Cleveland, the Steelers play some defense. NFL teams (and in this case Pittsburgh) are 59-28 ATS when they hold teams to an average of 295-335 yards per game, provided their opponent owns bad defensive numbers, those allowing at least 370 yards per game. Pittsburgh is on a 9-4 ATS run, overall, and they're on a 5-1 ATS run on the road. No revenge here. I'm backing the Pittsburgh Steelers, my Knockout Shocker.
Pick Made: Oct 11 2014 3:16PM PST
King Creole NFL Total
triple-dime bet 259 GBP / 260 MIA OVER 49.0 Hilton
Analysis:
3*** BEST BET on: OVER the TOTAL
There should be a LOT of points down here in South Florida on Sunday, as Miami hosts Green Bay with both teams off offensive explosions. Both of these teams come in with an average of 48.0 combined PPG on the year. For Green Bay, it's a 27.0 ppg offense and a 21.0 ppg defense. For Miami, it's a 24.0 ppg offense AND defense. It's what they've done lately that elevates this play to Best Bet status. After a slow start to the season, Green Bay has picked up their offense and put up 42 and 38 points in their last two games. The timing is right for a fast game. Coach Mike McCarthy mentioned throughout training camp and the pre-season that quickening their offensive pace was critical. In fact, he mentioned a high number of 75 offensive snaps per game as their goal. Result? The Packers are 4-1 O/U on the season. On the flip side, Miami made some major changes on offense as well. New OC Bill Lazor was brought in to quicken the Dolphin offense. At times, they have struggled in the first month. But at other times, they've scored points in bunches. And they have shot all the way up to the THIRD quickest offense in the NFL (69.5 plays per game). The good news for Over players is: Despite already going 3-1 O/U in their four games, the Dolphins are just scratching the surface. When they do get their offense humming (and they had plenty of time during their bye week), the Overs will continue.
As mentioned above, both teams off impressive wins in their last game. For Green Bay, it was a huge Thursday win over Minnesota.
11-1 O/U since 2009 / 9-0 O/U away: All NFL favorites off a SU THURSDAY win that went OVER the Total (PACKERS).
For Miami, it was a dominating performance over Oakland ‘across the pond’ (London).
6-0 O/U: All NFL underdogs playing off a SU NEUTRAL site win (DOLPHINS).
Green Bay figures to let their hair down a little after playing 3 straight division games in a row.
LAST year, NFL teams off 3 straight division games (PACKERS) went a PERFECT 4-0 O/U. Since the 2007 season, these teams have gone 18-4 O/U when favored (GBAY)... including a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in the last 5 seasons.
Final score of that Packers win over Minnesota last week was 42 to 10.
9-0-1 O/U since 2007: All non-division road teams off a SU DIVISION win of 31 or more points (PACKERS). This situation has already gone 1-0 O/U this year (ATL vs MIN in Week Four).
On the flip side, the host Dolphins come into this NON-conference game with a Week of Rest (BYE).
6-0 O/U since 2001: All non-division home underdogs of < 6 points with rest (MIAMI) and off a SU win in their last game.
Miami has had an up-and-down ride in their last 3 games (SU win of 24 pts and BB SU losses of 19 and 19 pts).
8-1-1 O/U last 5 years: All NFL teams off a SU win of 14 > pts and BB SU losses of 14 > pts each in their last 3 games (DOLPHINS).
So both of these teams enter Sunday’s game off wins of 24 or more points.
6-1 O/U last 5 years: All NFL games in which BOTH teams (MIAMI / GREEN BAY) are off a SU win of 24 > points.
Let’s not forget to query the ‘AFC vs NFC’ aspect of this game. Last season, All > .500 NFC ‘short’ road favorites of -4 < pts (PACKERS) went a PERFECT 7-0 O/U versus an AFC opponent (DOLPHINS).
Look for a lot of fast-paced NO HUDDLE plays in this shootout. Final score: 31 to 28...
Pick Made: Oct 10 2014 8:59PM PST
triple-dime bet 259 GBP / 260 MIA OVER 49.0 Hilton
Analysis:
3*** BEST BET on: OVER the TOTAL
There should be a LOT of points down here in South Florida on Sunday, as Miami hosts Green Bay with both teams off offensive explosions. Both of these teams come in with an average of 48.0 combined PPG on the year. For Green Bay, it's a 27.0 ppg offense and a 21.0 ppg defense. For Miami, it's a 24.0 ppg offense AND defense. It's what they've done lately that elevates this play to Best Bet status. After a slow start to the season, Green Bay has picked up their offense and put up 42 and 38 points in their last two games. The timing is right for a fast game. Coach Mike McCarthy mentioned throughout training camp and the pre-season that quickening their offensive pace was critical. In fact, he mentioned a high number of 75 offensive snaps per game as their goal. Result? The Packers are 4-1 O/U on the season. On the flip side, Miami made some major changes on offense as well. New OC Bill Lazor was brought in to quicken the Dolphin offense. At times, they have struggled in the first month. But at other times, they've scored points in bunches. And they have shot all the way up to the THIRD quickest offense in the NFL (69.5 plays per game). The good news for Over players is: Despite already going 3-1 O/U in their four games, the Dolphins are just scratching the surface. When they do get their offense humming (and they had plenty of time during their bye week), the Overs will continue.
As mentioned above, both teams off impressive wins in their last game. For Green Bay, it was a huge Thursday win over Minnesota.
11-1 O/U since 2009 / 9-0 O/U away: All NFL favorites off a SU THURSDAY win that went OVER the Total (PACKERS).
For Miami, it was a dominating performance over Oakland ‘across the pond’ (London).
6-0 O/U: All NFL underdogs playing off a SU NEUTRAL site win (DOLPHINS).
Green Bay figures to let their hair down a little after playing 3 straight division games in a row.
LAST year, NFL teams off 3 straight division games (PACKERS) went a PERFECT 4-0 O/U. Since the 2007 season, these teams have gone 18-4 O/U when favored (GBAY)... including a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in the last 5 seasons.
Final score of that Packers win over Minnesota last week was 42 to 10.
9-0-1 O/U since 2007: All non-division road teams off a SU DIVISION win of 31 or more points (PACKERS). This situation has already gone 1-0 O/U this year (ATL vs MIN in Week Four).
On the flip side, the host Dolphins come into this NON-conference game with a Week of Rest (BYE).
6-0 O/U since 2001: All non-division home underdogs of < 6 points with rest (MIAMI) and off a SU win in their last game.
Miami has had an up-and-down ride in their last 3 games (SU win of 24 pts and BB SU losses of 19 and 19 pts).
8-1-1 O/U last 5 years: All NFL teams off a SU win of 14 > pts and BB SU losses of 14 > pts each in their last 3 games (DOLPHINS).
So both of these teams enter Sunday’s game off wins of 24 or more points.
6-1 O/U last 5 years: All NFL games in which BOTH teams (MIAMI / GREEN BAY) are off a SU win of 24 > points.
Let’s not forget to query the ‘AFC vs NFC’ aspect of this game. Last season, All > .500 NFC ‘short’ road favorites of -4 < pts (PACKERS) went a PERFECT 7-0 O/U versus an AFC opponent (DOLPHINS).
Look for a lot of fast-paced NO HUDDLE plays in this shootout. Final score: 31 to 28...
Pick Made: Oct 10 2014 8:59PM PST
Totals4U
2014 AFC North Division Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Pittsburgh/Cleveland under 47
Early NFL Best Bets
Detroit/Minnesota over 43
Carolina/Cincinnati over 43 1/2
New England/Buffalo under 45
Baltimore/Tampa Bay over 43 1/2
2014 NFC East Division Primetime Total of the Year!!!!!
New York/Philadelphia over 50
Late NFL Best Bets
Chicago/Atlanta under 54
San Diego/Oakland under 43 1/2
Dallas/Seattle over 46 1/2
Washington/Arizona under 45 1/2
2014 AFC North Division Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Pittsburgh/Cleveland under 47
Early NFL Best Bets
Detroit/Minnesota over 43
Carolina/Cincinnati over 43 1/2
New England/Buffalo under 45
Baltimore/Tampa Bay over 43 1/2
2014 NFC East Division Primetime Total of the Year!!!!!
New York/Philadelphia over 50
Late NFL Best Bets
Chicago/Atlanta under 54
San Diego/Oakland under 43 1/2
Dallas/Seattle over 46 1/2
Washington/Arizona under 45 1/2
Craig Davis
Sunday's Action...
100 Dime Winner for Sunday is a 2 Team, 7 Point Teaser on both the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills as the home dogs teased up. At 10:00 pm eastern time on Saturday night when I release this selection, the Dolphins are +3 point dogs, while the Bills are the +2 1/2 point dogs both in Vegas and offshore. In this teaser we are getting the Dolphins at +10, and the Bills at +9 1/2 points.
Sunday's Action...
100 Dime Winner for Sunday is a 2 Team, 7 Point Teaser on both the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills as the home dogs teased up. At 10:00 pm eastern time on Saturday night when I release this selection, the Dolphins are +3 point dogs, while the Bills are the +2 1/2 point dogs both in Vegas and offshore. In this teaser we are getting the Dolphins at +10, and the Bills at +9 1/2 points.
Trace Adams
Sunday Selection ...
For Sunday, Top-Rated 1000♦ is the Cincinnati Bengals as the home favorite over the Carolina Panthers. At 10:05 pm eastern time on Saturday night, the Bengals are the -6 1/2 point to -7 point favorites both in Vegas and offshore. Make sure you get the best line possible.
Sunday Selection ...
For Sunday, Top-Rated 1000♦ is the Cincinnati Bengals as the home favorite over the Carolina Panthers. At 10:05 pm eastern time on Saturday night, the Bengals are the -6 1/2 point to -7 point favorites both in Vegas and offshore. Make sure you get the best line possible.
Dan the Man
Sunday's Play
Sunday winner is a 75 Dime play on the Philadelphia Eagles as the home favorite against the New York Giants. At 7:05 pm Vegas time on Saturday night, the Eagles are -2 1/2 to -3 point favorites in Vegas and offshore. Make sure to shop around and get the best line possible. I want you to buy the half-point down on the Eagles if your number is -3.
Sunday's Play
Sunday winner is a 75 Dime play on the Philadelphia Eagles as the home favorite against the New York Giants. At 7:05 pm Vegas time on Saturday night, the Eagles are -2 1/2 to -3 point favorites in Vegas and offshore. Make sure to shop around and get the best line possible. I want you to buy the half-point down on the Eagles if your number is -3.
Brandon Lang
Sunday Selection ...
My 150 dime selection is on Dolphins over the Packers. The current line on this game is +3 in Vegas and offshore. I advise buying the 1/2 point and getting +3 1/2. If your man has a 2 1/2, you buy up to +3. You make sure to get +3 and +3 1/2. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.
Sunday Selection ...
My 150 dime selection is on Dolphins over the Packers. The current line on this game is +3 in Vegas and offshore. I advise buying the 1/2 point and getting +3 1/2. If your man has a 2 1/2, you buy up to +3. You make sure to get +3 and +3 1/2. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.
Sean Michaels
SUNDAY
100 Dime, 7 POINT Two-Team Teaser on Denver and Seattle, who are favorites against the Jets and Cowboys, respectively. As I release this play at 2:05 AM here in Vegas, Denver is -9 to -10 at most books with Seattle -8 to -9. Using the SEVEN points in this particular two-teamer, reduce the price on both favorites, making Denver -3 (using the higher price listed above) and Seattle -2 (again using the higher price above).
FYI - generally I go with standard six-point teasers, but in this particular case I opted for a seven-pointer because of the wider range of prices and since Denver is pushing -10 at some books. You do NOT want to watch a field goal win get you a loss at -4 with a six-point teaser instead.
SUNDAY
100 Dime, 7 POINT Two-Team Teaser on Denver and Seattle, who are favorites against the Jets and Cowboys, respectively. As I release this play at 2:05 AM here in Vegas, Denver is -9 to -10 at most books with Seattle -8 to -9. Using the SEVEN points in this particular two-teamer, reduce the price on both favorites, making Denver -3 (using the higher price listed above) and Seattle -2 (again using the higher price above).
FYI - generally I go with standard six-point teasers, but in this particular case I opted for a seven-pointer because of the wider range of prices and since Denver is pushing -10 at some books. You do NOT want to watch a field goal win get you a loss at -4 with a six-point teaser instead.
Bryan Rosica
10/12/14
Baltimore (NFL)
Special Instructions: Buy down 1/2 point. (just in case)
After a tough loss last week, the Ravens need a win. The sit at 3-2 on the season, which isn't bad considering the fallout of the Ray Rice scenario, which I believe they put behind them brilliantly. They have quietly returned to being that gritty and stingy defense and they have quite a few playmakers on offense, along with a 3 prong running attack led by Justin Forsett who has stepped it up in Rice's absence.
Everyone is high on Tampa after they shocked Pittsburgh and almost did the same to the Saints. However, these are not the New Orleans saints of old, and the same goes for Pittsburgh. The recent semi surge from Tampa is a fake, and Lovie Smith is still.... Lovie Smith.
Ravens win this one, going away.
10/12/14
Baltimore (NFL)
Special Instructions: Buy down 1/2 point. (just in case)
After a tough loss last week, the Ravens need a win. The sit at 3-2 on the season, which isn't bad considering the fallout of the Ray Rice scenario, which I believe they put behind them brilliantly. They have quietly returned to being that gritty and stingy defense and they have quite a few playmakers on offense, along with a 3 prong running attack led by Justin Forsett who has stepped it up in Rice's absence.
Everyone is high on Tampa after they shocked Pittsburgh and almost did the same to the Saints. However, these are not the New Orleans saints of old, and the same goes for Pittsburgh. The recent semi surge from Tampa is a fake, and Lovie Smith is still.... Lovie Smith.
Ravens win this one, going away.
Anthony Redd
Sunday's Play
50 Dime selection on the Carolina Panthers against the Cincinnati Bengals. As I release this play at 5:00am Pacific here in Vegas, the line on Carolina is +6 1/2 to +7 in Vegas and offshore. In this situation I recommend you buy the 1/2 point insurance and move the line to +7 or +7 1/2.
Sunday's Play
50 Dime selection on the Carolina Panthers against the Cincinnati Bengals. As I release this play at 5:00am Pacific here in Vegas, the line on Carolina is +6 1/2 to +7 in Vegas and offshore. In this situation I recommend you buy the 1/2 point insurance and move the line to +7 or +7 1/2.
Vince Akins's Pick Pack
NFL Sunday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Baltimore (-3.5 +100)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4.5-STAR Baltimore over TAMPA BAY - Tampa Bay has put together spirited efforts each of the past two weeks, but at some points that spirit runs out and the talent gap becomes evident. In a game the Ravens don't want to let get away we see them coming in here and taking care of things comfortably.
Baltimore is on the road for the second straight game after a loss in Indy last week. Teams on the road for the second straight game are 468-355-20 ATS (A and p:A and season>=2003).
They scored just 13 points in the loss, their lowest output of the season. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS (13.42 ppg) since Nov 05, 2000 as a road favorite after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average (team=Ravens and AF and p
oints + 10<=Average(points@team and season and p:season=season) and date>=20001105).
They rushed for 90 yards in the loss, the second straight game their rushing output decreased. The Ravens are 10-0 ATS on the road when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. (team=Ravens and A and p:RY=2008).
it wasn't a lack of productivity but that they didn't really commit to the run, with just 15 carries in that game. The Ravens are 10-0 ATS on the road after a loss in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. (team=Ravens and A and p:L and tA(p:rushes)-p:rushes >= 10 and season>=2001).
As you might imagine the result was the Colts dominated the ball, and the Ravens had control for just 21:17. The Ravens are 9-0 ATS as a road favorite after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. (team=Ravens and AF and p:TOP<1560 and date>=20011101).
Tampa Bay returns home here after three straight road games. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-9.21 ppg) since Dec 07, 1997 as a home dog after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks (team=Buccaneers and HD and p:A and pp:A and date>=19971207).
They lost a heartbreaker on the road last week, 37-31 in overtime at New Orleans. Homes teams that lost in overtime in road game last week are 46-68-4 ATS (H and p
vertime=1 and p:AL and NB).
They did themselves no favors in that upset bid with 15 penalties in the loss. Teams that committed at least 13 penalties last game are 118-166-8 ATS (penalties>=13).
Now they have this lone home game before going into the bye next week. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS (-9.25 ppg) since Nov 02, 2008 the week before their bye (team=Buccaneers and n:week=2 +week and date>=20081102).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Baltimore 27, TAMPA BAY 13
Matchup: Detroit at Minnesota
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Minnesota (PK +105)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR MINNESOTA over Detroit - The Vikings get a free pass for last week's performance in Green Bay. Once the Vikings knew Christian Ponder was starting they knew their fate and the effort showed. With Teddy back in command here, we expect them to foil Detroit playing outdoors.
Minnesota lost in Green Bay on Thursday night, 42-10. Teams that lost by at least 31 points last game are 154-114-2 ATS (p:margin<=-31).
It was an unusual blowout in that Minnesota actually had the ball for over 32 minutes in the loss.
The Vikings are 12-0-1 ATS (8.69 ppg) since Sep 30, 2001 as a dog the week after a loss in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average (team=Vikings and D and p:L and tA(p:TOP)+ 180<=p:TOP and date>=20010930).
They stuck with the run with 25 rushes with their lone TD coming on a Ponder run. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) after a road game which was not the season opener in which they rushed for a TD (team=Vikings and p:A and p:RTD>0 and p:game number>1 and season>=2012).
Ponder was in trouble all game and was sacked six times in the loss. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS after a game in which they allowed at least four sacks (team=Vikings and p:A and p:RTD>0 and p:game number>1 and season>=2012).
Detroit goes to Minnesota after absolutely letting one get away in a 17-14 loss to Buffalo as a home favorite. The Lions are 0-13 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since Nov 06, 2005 with 5-10 days rest playing on artificial turf after a loss as a favorite (team=Lions and surface=artificial and p:FL and 10>=rest>=5 and date>=20051106).
Buffalo had 11 penalties in the game, but even that wasn't enough to save Detroit. Teams that lost despite benefitting from at least 11 penalties last game are 171-228-16 ATS (poenalties>=11 and p:L).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 27, Detroit 20
Matchup: Denver at N.Y. Jets
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: N.Y. Jets (+9.5 -110)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR NY JETS over Denver - This pick is 100% against the public but this line is overreacting to just one week. If their game happened last week, the Jets would not have been more than six point home dogs. They are significantly more here and that makes a big difference in these game where hope seems to be lost on the surface.
When a home team is a dog of more than a TD they carry a strong edge. Home dogs of more than a TD are 174-136-1 ATS (H and line>7).
The reason for the big line is that New York lost by 31 points last week. Teams that lost by at least 31 points last game are 154-114-2 ATS (p:margin<=-31).
They were shutout in the road loss at the Chargers, a game where they were just TD road dogs despite San Diego being one of the league's best teams. The Jets are 9-0 ATS since November 2007 as a dog the week after scoring fewer than 10 points (team=Jets and D and points<10 and NB and date>=20071101).
They lost the turnover margin yet again in that game, but that's a correctable problem. The Jets are 8-0 ATS (7.62 ppg) since Oct 20, 1996 at home when they had a negative takeaway margin in each of their last three games (team=Jets and H and 0
=19961020).
Falling behind so early last game, they had to get away from their bread and butter running game, and had just 21 carries. The Jets are 10-0 ATS (9.80 ppg) since Sep 15, 1991 as a home dog the week after a loss in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average (team=Jets and HD and p:L and p:rushes + 10<=Average(p:rushes@team and season and p:season=season) and date>=19910915).
Still that was better than their feable passing effort which had just 60 yards on 31 attempts plus sacks. Teams that had fewer than 65 passing yards last game are 107-85-5 ATS (p
Y<65). Also, the Jets are 6-0 ATS (14.17 ppg) since Dec 14, 1997 at home the week after a game in which they had fewer than 100 yards passing (team=Jets and H and pY<100 and date>=19971214).
Denver meanwhile has 772 passing yards over their last two games. Teams that have thrown for at least 740 combined yards in their past two games are 32-43-3 ATS (pY + ppY>=740).
They won last week, 41-20, at home against Arizona. Road favorites of more than a point coming off a game where they scored 30+ points and did not win by more than 27 are 180-246-11 ATS (A and line<-1 and points>=30 and NB and p:margin<=27).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Denver 26, NEW YORK 21
Matchup: Carolina at Cincinnati
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Carolina (+7 -120)
Line Source: The Greek
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR Carolina +7 over CINCINNATI - We think the loss that Cincinnati suffered last week is going to have more than a one week effect. Their confidence should rightfully be shaken and now they are further hurt with the big loss of AJ Green. As Cam Newton gets healthy, this is the kind of game set up for the Panthers to compete in.
Further setting up a hangover possibility for Cincinnati is that it was their first loss this late into the season, one of the two last teams to lose a game on the year. Teams are 38-56-3 ATS when it is at least week 6 and they lost their first game of the season last game (losses=1 and p:L and week>=6).
Both their offense and defense were bad in the 43-17 loss to the Patriots. Favorites that allowed at least 37 points last game and scored no more than 19 are 61-88-3 ATS (pooints>=37 and F and points<=19).
Cincinnati was actually a 2.5-point favorite in that game, failing to cover by 28.5 points. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since Nov 22, 1998 as a favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week after a non-divisional opponent (team=Bengals and F and p:ats margin<=-10 and p:NDIV and date>=19981122).
They gave up all those points after allowing just seven in a blowout over Tennessee the week prior. Teams that allowed at least 35 points last game and less than 14 two games ago (pooints>=35 and ppooints<14).
New England even committed 12 penalties Sunday, but that wasn't enough to even mildly slowdown the beatdown. Teams that lost despite benefitting from at least 11 penalties last game are 171-228-16 ATS (poenalties>=11 and p:L).
Carolina won last week 31-24 over Chicago. they wisely got the ball to Greg Olsen who had two TDs in the win. The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS (11.29 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 after a win in which Greg Olsen had a least 1 receiving touchdown (0=20111002).
Cam Newton completed just 19 of 35 passes in the game, but was hitting plays down the field. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (14.00 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 the week after a game in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average (team=Panthers and NB and 100. * tp:completions / tpasses + 10<=Average((100.*tp:completions)@team and season and tp:season=season) / Average(tpasses@team and season and tp:season=season) and date>=20091206).
They were able to overcome a monster receiving day from Matt Forte out of the backfield, as he had 12 catches for 105 yards in the loss. Teams that have an opponent's player catch 12+ balls last game are 71-59-2 ATS (maxo:receptions>=12).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 23, Carolina 20
Matchup: Green Bay at Miami
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Miami (+3 -105)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR MIAMI over Green Bay - Not many people are giving the Dolphins much of a chance here even at home, but they are a team which has found something going into their bye. With an extra week's rest for their pass rush and a 1-2 punch returning the in backfield, we expect them to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field enough to pull off this upset win.
Before their bye they played Oakland as the road team in London. The Dolphins are 9-0 ATS (11.17 ppg) since Nov 06, 2011 as a dog after playing away from home (team=Dolphins and D and p:site!=home and date>=20111106).
They dominated that game, winning 38-14. Home teams in non-divisional regular season games, with more than normal rest after scoring at least 28 points last game are 83-46-3 ATS (rest>6 and points>=28 and H and NDIV and playoffs=0).
Green Bay also dominated last week, defeated Minnesota 42-10 in a game where they were up 28 by halftime. The Packers are 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week (team=Packers and -3<=line<=3 and p:margin>7 and p:M2>0 and NB and season>=2006).
As a nine-point favorite they still covered that game by 23 points. The Packers are 0-8 ATS (-8.75 ppg) since Sep 21, 2008 within 3 of pick when they covered by 10+ points last week (team=Packers and (-3<=line<=3) and 10<=p:ats margin and NB and date>=20080921).
Prior to that game, they had allowed 24 points per game. The Packers are 0-8 ATS (-6.00 ppg) since Oct 23, 2011 after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average at home (team=Packers and pooints<=Average(pooints@team and season and po:season=season) -10 and p:H and date>=20111023).
Turnovers went Green Bay's way in that win, forcing three and committing just one. The Packers are 0-11 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2. (team=Packers and -3<=line<=3 and p:W and p:TOM<=-2 and NB and date>=20021201).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MIAMI 24, Green Bay 20
Matchup: New England at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (45.5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR New England and Buffalo Under - Even though the final scoreboard didn't give much indication, we saw how the Patriots will want to play last week, and it starts with the running game. Buffalo is reliant on short passes and without a ton of big play opportunities from either side we look for this to stay under the total.
This game is expected to be close with New England on the road before they go home each of the next two weeks. The Patriots are 0-10 OU (-9.95 ppg) since Nov 06, 1994 within 3 of pick on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks (team=Patriots and A and -3<=line<=3 and n:H and nn:H and week + 2=nn:week and date>=19941106).
They scored 43 points last week and they even left some on the table with five field goals. Teams that attempted at least five field goals last game are 78-118-2 OU (p:field goals attempted>=5).
What they did was control things with the running game, with 46 carries in the win. Teams in game with a total of over 44, who ran the ball more than 35 times last game are 207-263-6 OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5).
Buffalo is also coming off an upset win at Detroit. = The Bills are 0-6 OU (-11.25 ppg) since Dec 03, 2009 within 3 of pick at home after a win (team=Bills and H and -3<=line<=3 and p:W and date>=20091203).
Their ATS margin has increased in each of the last two games after being blown out by the Chargers. The Bills are 0-7 OU (-8.64 ppg) since Dec 19, 1998 within 3 of pick at home when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games (team=Bills and H and -3<=line<=3 and ppp:ats margin=19981219).
Their lone big play of that 17-14 win over Detroit was a 42-yard strike to Marquise Goodwin. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-13.12 ppg) since Nov 30, 2008 at home after a win in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards (team=Bills and H and 40<=max:longest reception and p:W and NB and date>=20081130).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
Matchup: Washington at Arizona
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (45.0 -110)
Line Source: CG Technology
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4.5-STAR Washington and Arizona Over - These are a pair of offenses that are not afraid to take and hit big shots down the field. They also each have QBs that will make mistakes to give up quick points. Arizona's QB uncertainty has kept this total down, but with the Cardinals' injury riddled defense, we expect a shootout.
Washington is playing a lone road game here sandwiched between home games. The Redskins are 6-0 OU (10.33 ppg) since Sep 30, 2012 on the road between home games (team=Redskins and A and p:H and n:H and p:week + 2=n:week and date>=20120930).
Both of these teams are coming off games where they struggled to run the ball. Washington had just 32 rushing yards on the ground against Seattle on Monday night while Arizona had just 37 in Denver last week, activating a monster system on both teams. Since 2002, teams that ran for less than 50 yards last game and are facing a team that ran for less than 75 yards last game are 69-31-1 OU (p:RY<50 and op:RY<75 and season>=2002).
Arizona didn't even have a single medium length run as none of their 20 carries went for more than six yards. Teams that did not have a rush of more than seven yards last game are 82-60-2 ATS (max:longest rush<=7).
One positive from their offense in the 41-20 loss to Denver was that they didn't turn over the ball. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (12.78 ppg) since Oct 30, 1994 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers (team=Cardinals and HF and p:turnovers=0 and date>=19941030).
They did allowed 476 passing yards to Peyton Manning in the blowout loss. The Cardinals are 10-0 OU (9.65 ppg) since Dec 05, 1993 as a home favorite when they allowed at least 100 more yards passing last week than their season-to-date average (team=Cardinals and HF and Average(poassing yards@team and season and po:season=season) + 100<=poassing yards and po:week + 1=week and date>=19931205). More recently, the Cardinals are 6-0 OU (14.75 ppg) since Nov 25, 2007 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing (team=Cardinals and HF and 300<=poassing yards and NB and date>=20071125).
In this game they are back home where they are already 2-0 on the season. The Cardinals are 6-0 OU (12.50 ppg) since Dec 17, 2006 within 3 of pick at home when they won their last two home games (team=Cardinals and H and -3<=line<=3 and Sum(0=20061217).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Washington 28, ARIZONA 27
Member Plays
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (47 -110)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4.5-STAR Cleveland and Pittsburgh Under - This Steelers offense really comes and goes. Even last week with a defensive touchdown, they scored just 17 points. Cleveland meanwhile is not a team that wants to play high-scoring games, though playing in games where there have been big leads, that hasn't happened yet this year. That's driving the total up where it shouldn't in this game.
After this game, Pittsburgh has a game in the primetime of Monday night against Houston. The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-9.05 ppg) since Oct 17, 1999 on the road the week before playing on Monday Night (team=Steelers and A and n:day=Monday and date>=19991017).
They are dogs here after winning as away favorite in Jacksonville last week. The Steelers are 0-9 OU (-12.56 ppg) since Sep 18, 1995 as a dog after a win as an away favorite (team=Steelers and D and p:AFW and date>=19950918).
They were expected to score over 26 points in the game but had just 17 in victory.The Steelers are 0-8 OU (-13.75 ppg) since Dec 09, 2007 as a dog the week after a win in which their dps was negative (team=Steelers and D and p:W and p:dps<0 and date>=20071209).
Cleveland meanwhile won a high scoring game, 29-28 in one of the best comebacks in league history Sunday. Teams that won despite allowing at least 28 points last game are 190-239-10 OU (pooints>=28 and p:W).
They allowed 5.8 more points than expected in the victory. The Browns are 0-9 OU (-13.94 ppg) since Sep 29, 2002 the week after a win on the road in which their dpa was positive (team=Browns and p:AW and 0=20020929).
Even in a game where they were down 25, they still managed to run the ball 36 times. Teams in games where the total is over 44 after running the ball more than 35 times last game are 207-263-6 OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5).
Pittsburgh should know after week one that they can't sleep on this Cleveland offense averaging 387 yards per game. The Steelers are 0-7 OU (-10.86 ppg) since Oct 23, 2005 as a road dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date (team=Steelers and AD and oA(TY)>=375 and date>=20051023).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
Matchup: Chicago at Atlanta
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Chicago (+3 +100)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR Chicago over ATLANTA - The Falcons happen to be 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road, leading everyone to believe they are going to be just fine at home here. The fact is, injuries have just knocked them too far down. In a game that figures to be high scoring, Chicago has the more successful running attack and we think that will make a difference in a game where the defenses will struggle.
Chicago is playing on the road for the second straight week in this contest. Teams on the road for the second straight game are 468-355-20 ATS (A and p:A and season>=2003).
And for the second straight week, they are the small road underdog in the game. The Bears are 8-0 ATS (6.69 ppg) since Oct 19, 2003 as a road dog after playing as a road dog (team=Bears and D and p:margin<=-7 and pp:margin<=-7 and pp:week + 2=week and date>=19981213).
They do come into this ganme struggling, having lost by 7 and 21 the past two games. The Bears are 9-0-1 ATS (11.50 ppg) since Dec 13, 1998 as a dog when they lost by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks (team=Bears and D and p:margin<=-7 and pp:margin<=-7 and pp:week + 2=week and date>=19981213).
Atlanta lost on the road last week in New York, 30-20. They actually led, 20-17 entering the fourth quarter of that loss. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-7.25 ppg) since Nov 23, 2003 after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (team=Falcons and p:L and p:M3>0 and date>=20031123).
Now while Chicago is better at running the ball, both of these teams like to air it out. Each team has thrown the ball on 63% of their plays, but that is even more taxing on the Atlanta defense. The Falcons are 0-9 ATS (-5.67 ppg) since Oct 06, 2002 within 3 of pick when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date (team=Falcons and -3<=line<=3 and 60=20021006).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Chicago by 7
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: New England at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New England (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4.5-STAR New England over BUFFALO - Some luck in close games and all of a sudden, Buffalo is getting a decent amount of respect. The fact is they got badly outplayed even last week, but benefitted from a lot of field goal luck. With the Patriots in a groove, we don't seem the letting this one get away.
New England covered by 28.5 points last week in an upset home win over Cincinnati. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (16.86 ppg) since Sep 15, 2002 within 3 of pick on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week (team=Patriots and A and -3<=line<=3 and 10<=p:ats margin and NB and date>=20020915).
That was in a Sunday night game and big primetime win tend to carry teams going forward. Teams that won by at least 22 points in a primetime game are 99-77-7 ATS next game ((p:snf=1 or p:day!=Sunday) and p:margin>=22).
They dominated on the ground with 220 rushing yards in the win. The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (14.73 ppg) since Jan 02, 1994 within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing (team=Patriots and -3<=line<=3 and 150<=p:RY and NB and date>=19940102).
Benefitting from three turnovers while not committing any did not hurt the cause. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (12.12 ppg) since Dec 02, 2001 when they won last week as a dog while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 (team=Patriots and p:W and p:turnover margin<=-2 and p
and date>=20011202).
That is going to be a big factor here shares the league lead with several teams including New England with a +6 turnover differential this year. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS (13.08 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 when facing a team that has an average takeaway margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date (team=Patriots and Average(o:turnover margin@o:team and season)<=-1 and date>=20111002).
However, Buffalo's turnovers have been big ones, allowing defensive touchdowns in each of the last two games. Teams that won last game and have allowed defensive touchdowns in each of the last two games are 23-47-1 ATS.
Both Fred Jackson and Sammy Watkins had seven catches in the game as the win was led by the short passing game. The Bills are 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since Nov 06, 2011 after a win in which a receiver had at least 6 receptions (team=Bills and 6<=max:receptions and p:W and date>=20111106).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New England by 17
NFL Sunday Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Baltimore (-3.5 +100)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4.5-STAR Baltimore over TAMPA BAY - Tampa Bay has put together spirited efforts each of the past two weeks, but at some points that spirit runs out and the talent gap becomes evident. In a game the Ravens don't want to let get away we see them coming in here and taking care of things comfortably.
Baltimore is on the road for the second straight game after a loss in Indy last week. Teams on the road for the second straight game are 468-355-20 ATS (A and p:A and season>=2003).
They scored just 13 points in the loss, their lowest output of the season. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS (13.42 ppg) since Nov 05, 2000 as a road favorite after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average (team=Ravens and AF and p
oints + 10<=Average(points@team and season and p:season=season) and date>=20001105).They rushed for 90 yards in the loss, the second straight game their rushing output decreased. The Ravens are 10-0 ATS on the road when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. (team=Ravens and A and p:RY=2008).
it wasn't a lack of productivity but that they didn't really commit to the run, with just 15 carries in that game. The Ravens are 10-0 ATS on the road after a loss in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. (team=Ravens and A and p:L and tA(p:rushes)-p:rushes >= 10 and season>=2001).
As you might imagine the result was the Colts dominated the ball, and the Ravens had control for just 21:17. The Ravens are 9-0 ATS as a road favorite after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. (team=Ravens and AF and p:TOP<1560 and date>=20011101).
Tampa Bay returns home here after three straight road games. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-9.21 ppg) since Dec 07, 1997 as a home dog after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks (team=Buccaneers and HD and p:A and pp:A and date>=19971207).
They lost a heartbreaker on the road last week, 37-31 in overtime at New Orleans. Homes teams that lost in overtime in road game last week are 46-68-4 ATS (H and p
vertime=1 and p:AL and NB).They did themselves no favors in that upset bid with 15 penalties in the loss. Teams that committed at least 13 penalties last game are 118-166-8 ATS (p
enalties>=13).Now they have this lone home game before going into the bye next week. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS (-9.25 ppg) since Nov 02, 2008 the week before their bye (team=Buccaneers and n:week=2 +week and date>=20081102).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Baltimore 27, TAMPA BAY 13
Matchup: Detroit at Minnesota
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Minnesota (PK +105)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR MINNESOTA over Detroit - The Vikings get a free pass for last week's performance in Green Bay. Once the Vikings knew Christian Ponder was starting they knew their fate and the effort showed. With Teddy back in command here, we expect them to foil Detroit playing outdoors.
Minnesota lost in Green Bay on Thursday night, 42-10. Teams that lost by at least 31 points last game are 154-114-2 ATS (p:margin<=-31).
It was an unusual blowout in that Minnesota actually had the ball for over 32 minutes in the loss.
The Vikings are 12-0-1 ATS (8.69 ppg) since Sep 30, 2001 as a dog the week after a loss in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average (team=Vikings and D and p:L and tA(p:TOP)+ 180<=p:TOP and date>=20010930).
They stuck with the run with 25 rushes with their lone TD coming on a Ponder run. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) after a road game which was not the season opener in which they rushed for a TD (team=Vikings and p:A and p:RTD>0 and p:game number>1 and season>=2012).
Ponder was in trouble all game and was sacked six times in the loss. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS after a game in which they allowed at least four sacks (team=Vikings and p:A and p:RTD>0 and p:game number>1 and season>=2012).
Detroit goes to Minnesota after absolutely letting one get away in a 17-14 loss to Buffalo as a home favorite. The Lions are 0-13 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since Nov 06, 2005 with 5-10 days rest playing on artificial turf after a loss as a favorite (team=Lions and surface=artificial and p:FL and 10>=rest>=5 and date>=20051106).
Buffalo had 11 penalties in the game, but even that wasn't enough to save Detroit. Teams that lost despite benefitting from at least 11 penalties last game are 171-228-16 ATS (po
enalties>=11 and p:L).SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MINNESOTA 27, Detroit 20
Matchup: Denver at N.Y. Jets
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: N.Y. Jets (+9.5 -110)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR NY JETS over Denver - This pick is 100% against the public but this line is overreacting to just one week. If their game happened last week, the Jets would not have been more than six point home dogs. They are significantly more here and that makes a big difference in these game where hope seems to be lost on the surface.
When a home team is a dog of more than a TD they carry a strong edge. Home dogs of more than a TD are 174-136-1 ATS (H and line>7).
The reason for the big line is that New York lost by 31 points last week. Teams that lost by at least 31 points last game are 154-114-2 ATS (p:margin<=-31).
They were shutout in the road loss at the Chargers, a game where they were just TD road dogs despite San Diego being one of the league's best teams. The Jets are 9-0 ATS since November 2007 as a dog the week after scoring fewer than 10 points (team=Jets and D and p
oints<10 and NB and date>=20071101).They lost the turnover margin yet again in that game, but that's a correctable problem. The Jets are 8-0 ATS (7.62 ppg) since Oct 20, 1996 at home when they had a negative takeaway margin in each of their last three games (team=Jets and H and 0
=19961020).
Falling behind so early last game, they had to get away from their bread and butter running game, and had just 21 carries. The Jets are 10-0 ATS (9.80 ppg) since Sep 15, 1991 as a home dog the week after a loss in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average (team=Jets and HD and p:L and p:rushes + 10<=Average(p:rushes@team and season and p:season=season) and date>=19910915).
Still that was better than their feable passing effort which had just 60 yards on 31 attempts plus sacks. Teams that had fewer than 65 passing yards last game are 107-85-5 ATS (p
Y<65). Also, the Jets are 6-0 ATS (14.17 ppg) since Dec 14, 1997 at home the week after a game in which they had fewer than 100 yards passing (team=Jets and H and pY<100 and date>=19971214).Denver meanwhile has 772 passing yards over their last two games. Teams that have thrown for at least 740 combined yards in their past two games are 32-43-3 ATS (p
Y + ppY>=740).They won last week, 41-20, at home against Arizona. Road favorites of more than a point coming off a game where they scored 30+ points and did not win by more than 27 are 180-246-11 ATS (A and line<-1 and p
oints>=30 and NB and p:margin<=27).SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Denver 26, NEW YORK 21
Matchup: Carolina at Cincinnati
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Carolina (+7 -120)
Line Source: The Greek
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR Carolina +7 over CINCINNATI - We think the loss that Cincinnati suffered last week is going to have more than a one week effect. Their confidence should rightfully be shaken and now they are further hurt with the big loss of AJ Green. As Cam Newton gets healthy, this is the kind of game set up for the Panthers to compete in.
Further setting up a hangover possibility for Cincinnati is that it was their first loss this late into the season, one of the two last teams to lose a game on the year. Teams are 38-56-3 ATS when it is at least week 6 and they lost their first game of the season last game (losses=1 and p:L and week>=6).
Both their offense and defense were bad in the 43-17 loss to the Patriots. Favorites that allowed at least 37 points last game and scored no more than 19 are 61-88-3 ATS (po
oints>=37 and F and points<=19).Cincinnati was actually a 2.5-point favorite in that game, failing to cover by 28.5 points. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since Nov 22, 1998 as a favorite when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week after a non-divisional opponent (team=Bengals and F and p:ats margin<=-10 and p:NDIV and date>=19981122).
They gave up all those points after allowing just seven in a blowout over Tennessee the week prior. Teams that allowed at least 35 points last game and less than 14 two games ago (po
oints>=35 and ppooints<14).New England even committed 12 penalties Sunday, but that wasn't enough to even mildly slowdown the beatdown. Teams that lost despite benefitting from at least 11 penalties last game are 171-228-16 ATS (po
enalties>=11 and p:L).Carolina won last week 31-24 over Chicago. they wisely got the ball to Greg Olsen who had two TDs in the win. The Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS (11.29 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 after a win in which Greg Olsen had a least 1 receiving touchdown (0=20111002).
Cam Newton completed just 19 of 35 passes in the game, but was hitting plays down the field. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (14.00 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 the week after a game in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average (team=Panthers and NB and 100. * tp:completions / tp
asses + 10<=Average((100.*tp:completions)@team and season and tp:season=season) / Average(tpasses@team and season and tp:season=season) and date>=20091206).They were able to overcome a monster receiving day from Matt Forte out of the backfield, as he had 12 catches for 105 yards in the loss. Teams that have an opponent's player catch 12+ balls last game are 71-59-2 ATS (max
o:receptions>=12).SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 23, Carolina 20
Matchup: Green Bay at Miami
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Miami (+3 -105)
Line Source: Sportsbook.ag
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR MIAMI over Green Bay - Not many people are giving the Dolphins much of a chance here even at home, but they are a team which has found something going into their bye. With an extra week's rest for their pass rush and a 1-2 punch returning the in backfield, we expect them to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field enough to pull off this upset win.
Before their bye they played Oakland as the road team in London. The Dolphins are 9-0 ATS (11.17 ppg) since Nov 06, 2011 as a dog after playing away from home (team=Dolphins and D and p:site!=home and date>=20111106).
They dominated that game, winning 38-14. Home teams in non-divisional regular season games, with more than normal rest after scoring at least 28 points last game are 83-46-3 ATS (rest>6 and p
oints>=28 and H and NDIV and playoffs=0). Green Bay also dominated last week, defeated Minnesota 42-10 in a game where they were up 28 by halftime. The Packers are 0-12 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they were up at the half and won by more than a TD last week (team=Packers and -3<=line<=3 and p:margin>7 and p:M2>0 and NB and season>=2006).
As a nine-point favorite they still covered that game by 23 points. The Packers are 0-8 ATS (-8.75 ppg) since Sep 21, 2008 within 3 of pick when they covered by 10+ points last week (team=Packers and (-3<=line<=3) and 10<=p:ats margin and NB and date>=20080921).
Prior to that game, they had allowed 24 points per game. The Packers are 0-8 ATS (-6.00 ppg) since Oct 23, 2011 after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average at home (team=Packers and po
oints<=Average(pooints@team and season and po:season=season) -10 and p:H and date>=20111023).Turnovers went Green Bay's way in that win, forcing three and committing just one. The Packers are 0-11 ATS when the line is within 3 of pick when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2. (team=Packers and -3<=line<=3 and p:W and p:TOM<=-2 and NB and date>=20021201).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: MIAMI 24, Green Bay 20
Matchup: New England at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (45.5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR New England and Buffalo Under - Even though the final scoreboard didn't give much indication, we saw how the Patriots will want to play last week, and it starts with the running game. Buffalo is reliant on short passes and without a ton of big play opportunities from either side we look for this to stay under the total.
This game is expected to be close with New England on the road before they go home each of the next two weeks. The Patriots are 0-10 OU (-9.95 ppg) since Nov 06, 1994 within 3 of pick on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks (team=Patriots and A and -3<=line<=3 and n:H and nn:H and week + 2=nn:week and date>=19941106).
They scored 43 points last week and they even left some on the table with five field goals. Teams that attempted at least five field goals last game are 78-118-2 OU (p:field goals attempted>=5).
What they did was control things with the running game, with 46 carries in the win. Teams in game with a total of over 44, who ran the ball more than 35 times last game are 207-263-6 OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5).
Buffalo is also coming off an upset win at Detroit. = The Bills are 0-6 OU (-11.25 ppg) since Dec 03, 2009 within 3 of pick at home after a win (team=Bills and H and -3<=line<=3 and p:W and date>=20091203).
Their ATS margin has increased in each of the last two games after being blown out by the Chargers. The Bills are 0-7 OU (-8.64 ppg) since Dec 19, 1998 within 3 of pick at home when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games (team=Bills and H and -3<=line<=3 and ppp:ats margin=19981219).
Their lone big play of that 17-14 win over Detroit was a 42-yard strike to Marquise Goodwin. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-13.12 ppg) since Nov 30, 2008 at home after a win in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards (team=Bills and H and 40<=max
:longest reception and p:W and NB and date>=20081130). SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
Matchup: Washington at Arizona
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Over (45.0 -110)
Line Source: CG Technology
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4.5-STAR Washington and Arizona Over - These are a pair of offenses that are not afraid to take and hit big shots down the field. They also each have QBs that will make mistakes to give up quick points. Arizona's QB uncertainty has kept this total down, but with the Cardinals' injury riddled defense, we expect a shootout.
Washington is playing a lone road game here sandwiched between home games. The Redskins are 6-0 OU (10.33 ppg) since Sep 30, 2012 on the road between home games (team=Redskins and A and p:H and n:H and p:week + 2=n:week and date>=20120930).
Both of these teams are coming off games where they struggled to run the ball. Washington had just 32 rushing yards on the ground against Seattle on Monday night while Arizona had just 37 in Denver last week, activating a monster system on both teams. Since 2002, teams that ran for less than 50 yards last game and are facing a team that ran for less than 75 yards last game are 69-31-1 OU (p:RY<50 and op:RY<75 and season>=2002).
Arizona didn't even have a single medium length run as none of their 20 carries went for more than six yards. Teams that did not have a rush of more than seven yards last game are 82-60-2 ATS (max
:longest rush<=7).One positive from their offense in the 41-20 loss to Denver was that they didn't turn over the ball. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (12.78 ppg) since Oct 30, 1994 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they committed no turnovers (team=Cardinals and HF and p:turnovers=0 and date>=19941030).
They did allowed 476 passing yards to Peyton Manning in the blowout loss. The Cardinals are 10-0 OU (9.65 ppg) since Dec 05, 1993 as a home favorite when they allowed at least 100 more yards passing last week than their season-to-date average (team=Cardinals and HF and Average(po
assing yards@team and season and po:season=season) + 100<=poassing yards and po:week + 1=week and date>=19931205). More recently, the Cardinals are 6-0 OU (14.75 ppg) since Nov 25, 2007 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing (team=Cardinals and HF and 300<=poassing yards and NB and date>=20071125).In this game they are back home where they are already 2-0 on the season. The Cardinals are 6-0 OU (12.50 ppg) since Dec 17, 2006 within 3 of pick at home when they won their last two home games (team=Cardinals and H and -3<=line<=3 and Sum(0=20061217).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Washington 28, ARIZONA 27
Member Plays
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (47 -110)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4.5-STAR Cleveland and Pittsburgh Under - This Steelers offense really comes and goes. Even last week with a defensive touchdown, they scored just 17 points. Cleveland meanwhile is not a team that wants to play high-scoring games, though playing in games where there have been big leads, that hasn't happened yet this year. That's driving the total up where it shouldn't in this game.
After this game, Pittsburgh has a game in the primetime of Monday night against Houston. The Steelers are 0-10 OU (-9.05 ppg) since Oct 17, 1999 on the road the week before playing on Monday Night (team=Steelers and A and n:day=Monday and date>=19991017).
They are dogs here after winning as away favorite in Jacksonville last week. The Steelers are 0-9 OU (-12.56 ppg) since Sep 18, 1995 as a dog after a win as an away favorite (team=Steelers and D and p:AFW and date>=19950918).
They were expected to score over 26 points in the game but had just 17 in victory.The Steelers are 0-8 OU (-13.75 ppg) since Dec 09, 2007 as a dog the week after a win in which their dps was negative (team=Steelers and D and p:W and p:dps<0 and date>=20071209).
Cleveland meanwhile won a high scoring game, 29-28 in one of the best comebacks in league history Sunday. Teams that won despite allowing at least 28 points last game are 190-239-10 OU (po
oints>=28 and p:W).They allowed 5.8 more points than expected in the victory. The Browns are 0-9 OU (-13.94 ppg) since Sep 29, 2002 the week after a win on the road in which their dpa was positive (team=Browns and p:AW and 0=20020929).
Even in a game where they were down 25, they still managed to run the ball 36 times. Teams in games where the total is over 44 after running the ball more than 35 times last game are 207-263-6 OU (p:rushes>35 and total>=44.5).
Pittsburgh should know after week one that they can't sleep on this Cleveland offense averaging 387 yards per game. The Steelers are 0-7 OU (-10.86 ppg) since Oct 23, 2005 as a road dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date (team=Steelers and AD and oA(TY)>=375 and date>=20051023).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: 37 points
Matchup: Chicago at Atlanta
Time: 4:25 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Chicago (+3 +100)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4-STAR Chicago over ATLANTA - The Falcons happen to be 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road, leading everyone to believe they are going to be just fine at home here. The fact is, injuries have just knocked them too far down. In a game that figures to be high scoring, Chicago has the more successful running attack and we think that will make a difference in a game where the defenses will struggle.
Chicago is playing on the road for the second straight week in this contest. Teams on the road for the second straight game are 468-355-20 ATS (A and p:A and season>=2003).
And for the second straight week, they are the small road underdog in the game. The Bears are 8-0 ATS (6.69 ppg) since Oct 19, 2003 as a road dog after playing as a road dog (team=Bears and D and p:margin<=-7 and pp:margin<=-7 and pp:week + 2=week and date>=19981213).
They do come into this ganme struggling, having lost by 7 and 21 the past two games. The Bears are 9-0-1 ATS (11.50 ppg) since Dec 13, 1998 as a dog when they lost by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks (team=Bears and D and p:margin<=-7 and pp:margin<=-7 and pp:week + 2=week and date>=19981213).
Atlanta lost on the road last week in New York, 30-20. They actually led, 20-17 entering the fourth quarter of that loss. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-7.25 ppg) since Nov 23, 2003 after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter (team=Falcons and p:L and p:M3>0 and date>=20031123).
Now while Chicago is better at running the ball, both of these teams like to air it out. Each team has thrown the ball on 63% of their plays, but that is even more taxing on the Atlanta defense. The Falcons are 0-9 ATS (-5.67 ppg) since Oct 06, 2002 within 3 of pick when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date (team=Falcons and -3<=line<=3 and 60=20021006).
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Chicago by 7
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: New England at Buffalo
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: New England (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: October 11, 2014 @ 12:30:58 AM EDT
4.5-STAR New England over BUFFALO - Some luck in close games and all of a sudden, Buffalo is getting a decent amount of respect. The fact is they got badly outplayed even last week, but benefitted from a lot of field goal luck. With the Patriots in a groove, we don't seem the letting this one get away.
New England covered by 28.5 points last week in an upset home win over Cincinnati. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (16.86 ppg) since Sep 15, 2002 within 3 of pick on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week (team=Patriots and A and -3<=line<=3 and 10<=p:ats margin and NB and date>=20020915).
That was in a Sunday night game and big primetime win tend to carry teams going forward. Teams that won by at least 22 points in a primetime game are 99-77-7 ATS next game ((p:snf=1 or p:day!=Sunday) and p:margin>=22).
They dominated on the ground with 220 rushing yards in the win. The Patriots are 11-0 ATS (14.73 ppg) since Jan 02, 1994 within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing (team=Patriots and -3<=line<=3 and 150<=p:RY and NB and date>=19940102).
Benefitting from three turnovers while not committing any did not hurt the cause. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (12.12 ppg) since Dec 02, 2001 when they won last week as a dog while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 (team=Patriots and p:W and p:turnover margin<=-2 and p
and date>=20011202).That is going to be a big factor here shares the league lead with several teams including New England with a +6 turnover differential this year. The Patriots are 6-0 ATS (13.08 ppg) since Oct 02, 2011 when facing a team that has an average takeaway margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date (team=Patriots and Average(o:turnover margin@o:team and season)<=-1 and date>=20111002).
However, Buffalo's turnovers have been big ones, allowing defensive touchdowns in each of the last two games. Teams that won last game and have allowed defensive touchdowns in each of the last two games are 23-47-1 ATS.
Both Fred Jackson and Sammy Watkins had seven catches in the game as the win was led by the short passing game. The Bills are 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since Nov 06, 2011 after a win in which a receiver had at least 6 receptions (team=Bills and 6<=max
:receptions and p:W and date>=20111106).SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: New England by 17
