Hilton Contest - Leaderboard
Top 5 Participants Selections
Miami - 5x
Buffalo = 3x
Oakland = 2x
Baltimore= 2x
Ari, Cle, Jax, Minn, Sea, SF = 1x
Atl vs Chi = split 2x
Car 2 vs Cinn 1x
The next 14 participants are tied with respectable point totals:
Miami = 12x vs. GB = 1x
Buff = 9x
Carolina = 6x
Baltimore = 7x vs. TB = 1x
Ari, Chi, STL = 3x
Oak, Sea = 2x
The remaining selection are split or have a small edge.
For tracking purpose, I think the following would qualify as TOP 3 Selections:
Miami
Buffalo
Carolina
Top 5 Participants Selections
Miami - 5x
Buffalo = 3x
Oakland = 2x
Baltimore= 2x
Ari, Cle, Jax, Minn, Sea, SF = 1x
Atl vs Chi = split 2x
Car 2 vs Cinn 1x
The next 14 participants are tied with respectable point totals:
Miami = 12x vs. GB = 1x
Buff = 9x
Carolina = 6x
Baltimore = 7x vs. TB = 1x
Ari, Chi, STL = 3x
Oak, Sea = 2x
The remaining selection are split or have a small edge.
For tracking purpose, I think the following would qualify as TOP 3 Selections:
Miami
Buffalo
Carolina
The Irish didn’t have enough fight in them to cover 17 Saturday night, but the Giants came up large in St. Louis, so Hondo’s debt dipped slightly to 1,340 alworths.
Sunday: Mr. Aitch will try to hit pay dirt with his BGBBs (Bettor’s Guide Best Bets) — 10 units apiece on the Broncos, Chargers and Cardinals.
Sunday: Mr. Aitch will try to hit pay dirt with his BGBBs (Bettor’s Guide Best Bets) — 10 units apiece on the Broncos, Chargers and Cardinals.
StatFox Super Situations
NFL | WASHINGTON at ARIZONA
Play Against - Favorites (ARIZONA) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
NFL | WASHINGTON at ARIZONA
Play Against - Underdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games
143-35 since 1997. ( 80.3% | 0.0 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | DALLAS at SEATTLE
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 after 4 or more consecutive wins, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
NFL | WASHINGTON at ARIZONA
Play Against - Favorites (ARIZONA) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
NFL | WASHINGTON at ARIZONA
Play Against - Underdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games
143-35 since 1997. ( 80.3% | 0.0 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | DALLAS at SEATTLE
Play Over - Road teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 after 4 or more consecutive wins, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h][h=2]NY Giants at Philadelphia[/h]The Giants head to Philadelphia tonight where they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games versus the Eagles. New York is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.
| SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (10/8) |
| Game 251-252: Denver at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Denver 140.520; NY Jets 125.841 Dunkel Line: Denver by 14 1/2; 44 Vegas Line: Denver by 8; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Under |
| Game 253-254: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 132.593; Cleveland 130.826 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 43 Vegas Line: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 47 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); Under |
| Game 255-256: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 117.219; Tennessee 127.141 Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 10; 48 Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6; 42 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-6); Over |
| Game 257-258: Chicago at Atlanta (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.213; Atlanta 128.352 Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 56 Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Over |
| Game 259-260: Green Bay at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.613; Miami 128.047 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6 1/2; 45 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 49 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Under |
| Game 261-262: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 134.822; Minnesota 130.203 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 41 Vegas Line: Detroit by 2; 44 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2); Under |
| Game 263-264: Carolina at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 133.323; Cincinnati 137.176 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 48 Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7 1/2; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7 1/2); Over |
| Game 265-266: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.140; Buffalo 133.506 Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 41 Vegas Line: New England by 3; 45 Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Under |
| Game 267-268: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 132.651; Tampa Bay 131.513 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 48 Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 43 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Over |
| Game 269-270: San Diego at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 141.199; Oakland 122.380 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 19; 38 Vegas Line: San Diego by 7; 43 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7); Under |
| Game 271-272: Dallas at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.281; Seattle 141.807 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: Seattle by 8 1/2; 47 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+8 1/2); Over |
| Game 273-274: Washington at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.276; Arizona 135.763 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10 1/2; 48 Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 45 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3 1/2); Over |
| Game 275-276: NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 136.244; Philadelphia 135.280 Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 46 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 50 Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Under |
[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h][h=2]San Francisco at St. Louis[/h]The Giants look to follow up last night's 3-0 win in the series opener as they face a Cardinals team that is 0-4 in Lance Lynn's last 4 home starts versus San Francisco. The Giants are the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has San Francisco favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
| SUNDAY, OCTOBER 12 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST |
| Game 957-958: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Peavy) 15.809; St. Louis (Lynn) 14.750 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 5 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120); Under |
Hondo
Hondo goes with his Besties
The Irish didn’t have enough fight in them to cover 17 Saturday night, but the Giants came up large in St. Louis, so Hondo’s debt dipped slightly to 1,340 alworths.
Sunday: Mr. Aitch will try to hit pay dirt with his BGBBs (Bettor’s Guide Best Bets) — 10 units apiece on the Broncos, Chargers and Arizona Cardinals.
Hondo goes with his Besties
The Irish didn’t have enough fight in them to cover 17 Saturday night, but the Giants came up large in St. Louis, so Hondo’s debt dipped slightly to 1,340 alworths.
Sunday: Mr. Aitch will try to hit pay dirt with his BGBBs (Bettor’s Guide Best Bets) — 10 units apiece on the Broncos, Chargers and Arizona Cardinals.
EZWINNERS
EZ's Plays For Sunday
A solid day in college football on Saturday! Five NFL selections on my card for Sunday. I will most likely add a play on the Sunday night game between the Giants and Eagles that will not be posted here on the website. Follow my Twitter account or email me to get on the text list so you don't miss any added plays. Best of luck.
-EZ
2* (252) New York Jets +10
I have to be honest when I say that there are not any "football" reasons to like the Jets in this match up. This is more of a gut feeling and fade of Floyd Mayweather's 11 million dollar bet on the Broncos. The Jets were hammered last week in San Diego and we all know about the circus that is Geno Smith. Now they face Peyton Manning and company and the whole world will be on Denver. The fact of the matter is that since 2009, double digit home underdogs are an incredible 16-2 against the spread. Take the points.
2* (253) Pittsburgh Steelers PICK
The Browns almost knocked off the Steelers in week one at Pittsburgh thanks to a big second half comeback. Cleveland caught the Steelers defense by surprise with the no huddle, but I don't see that happening this time around. The Browns are coming off of a huge comeback win against Tennessee last week, but the Steelers have owned this series winning 18 out of 19 games. Pittsburgh has too many offensive weapons for Cleveland's 30th ranked defense that will have star cornerback Joe Haden at less than 100%. Play on Pittsburgh.
2* (260) Miami Dolphins +3
The Packers offense is starting to click, but the Dolphins have had extra time to get ready for Aaron Rodgers and company after wiping out the Raiders in London two weeks ago. This will be Miami's toughest test so far this season, but the Dolphins defense is second in the league in total defense behind the Seahawks. The question is how will Green Bay who has the worst rushing defense in the league stop Miami who is 8th in the NFL in rushing. Ball control will be the key and the Dolphins are the home underdog with the better defense. Take the points.
2* (266) Buffalo Bills +2.5
New England killed Cincinnati on national TV last week but should we believe that their offense is clicking like the Patriots of old? Buffalo's defense is playing well, and with Kyle Orton at quarterback who threw for over 300 yards last week at Detroit, you have to at least respect Buffalo's ability to get the ball down field. This opens up more opportunities for the Bills running game. It took a last minute field goal for the Patriots to escape with a two point win in Buffalo last season and I expect this one to go to the wire as well. Take the points.
2* (258) Atlanta Falcons -3
This is a bad match up for a Bears team that is still stinging from blowing the lead last week in Carolina. After back to back road losses at Minnesota and New York, Atlanta gets back to the Georgia Dome where they are a totally different team. The Falcons have scored 93 points in their two home wins. Matt Ryan and company should have a field day against the banged up Chicago secondary. Chicago has plenty of weapons on offense as well, but I'll take quarterback Matt Ryan over mistake prone Jay Cutler any day. Lay the small number.
EZ's Plays For Sunday
A solid day in college football on Saturday! Five NFL selections on my card for Sunday. I will most likely add a play on the Sunday night game between the Giants and Eagles that will not be posted here on the website. Follow my Twitter account or email me to get on the text list so you don't miss any added plays. Best of luck.
-EZ
2* (252) New York Jets +10
I have to be honest when I say that there are not any "football" reasons to like the Jets in this match up. This is more of a gut feeling and fade of Floyd Mayweather's 11 million dollar bet on the Broncos. The Jets were hammered last week in San Diego and we all know about the circus that is Geno Smith. Now they face Peyton Manning and company and the whole world will be on Denver. The fact of the matter is that since 2009, double digit home underdogs are an incredible 16-2 against the spread. Take the points.
2* (253) Pittsburgh Steelers PICK
The Browns almost knocked off the Steelers in week one at Pittsburgh thanks to a big second half comeback. Cleveland caught the Steelers defense by surprise with the no huddle, but I don't see that happening this time around. The Browns are coming off of a huge comeback win against Tennessee last week, but the Steelers have owned this series winning 18 out of 19 games. Pittsburgh has too many offensive weapons for Cleveland's 30th ranked defense that will have star cornerback Joe Haden at less than 100%. Play on Pittsburgh.
2* (260) Miami Dolphins +3
The Packers offense is starting to click, but the Dolphins have had extra time to get ready for Aaron Rodgers and company after wiping out the Raiders in London two weeks ago. This will be Miami's toughest test so far this season, but the Dolphins defense is second in the league in total defense behind the Seahawks. The question is how will Green Bay who has the worst rushing defense in the league stop Miami who is 8th in the NFL in rushing. Ball control will be the key and the Dolphins are the home underdog with the better defense. Take the points.
2* (266) Buffalo Bills +2.5
New England killed Cincinnati on national TV last week but should we believe that their offense is clicking like the Patriots of old? Buffalo's defense is playing well, and with Kyle Orton at quarterback who threw for over 300 yards last week at Detroit, you have to at least respect Buffalo's ability to get the ball down field. This opens up more opportunities for the Bills running game. It took a last minute field goal for the Patriots to escape with a two point win in Buffalo last season and I expect this one to go to the wire as well. Take the points.
2* (258) Atlanta Falcons -3
This is a bad match up for a Bears team that is still stinging from blowing the lead last week in Carolina. After back to back road losses at Minnesota and New York, Atlanta gets back to the Georgia Dome where they are a totally different team. The Falcons have scored 93 points in their two home wins. Matt Ryan and company should have a field day against the banged up Chicago secondary. Chicago has plenty of weapons on offense as well, but I'll take quarterback Matt Ryan over mistake prone Jay Cutler any day. Lay the small number.
River City Sharps
The Oakland Raiders are a mess and back home following a trip to London, England, where they were throttled by the Miami Dolphins and decided to fire HC Dennis Allen after just four weeks into the season. While we would think the Raiders may play inspired football for new HC Tony Sporano, the truth is that they are so lacking in talent on the offensive side of the football that this line is still a gift at Chargers -7. The Chargers are 4-1 on the season and playing really solid football, led by QB Philip Rivers and veteran TE Antonio Gates. There are some serious trends in the Chargers favor in this contest. Let’s start with the fact that San Diego is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. While the Raiders are off the Bye week here, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Oakland is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games off a Bye week and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with a winning record. The value here clearly lies with the Chargers and we’re gladly going to swallow the points in this spot. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -7
The Oakland Raiders are a mess and back home following a trip to London, England, where they were throttled by the Miami Dolphins and decided to fire HC Dennis Allen after just four weeks into the season. While we would think the Raiders may play inspired football for new HC Tony Sporano, the truth is that they are so lacking in talent on the offensive side of the football that this line is still a gift at Chargers -7. The Chargers are 4-1 on the season and playing really solid football, led by QB Philip Rivers and veteran TE Antonio Gates. There are some serious trends in the Chargers favor in this contest. Let’s start with the fact that San Diego is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. While the Raiders are off the Bye week here, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Oakland is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games off a Bye week and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with a winning record. The value here clearly lies with the Chargers and we’re gladly going to swallow the points in this spot. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -7
SPORTSWAGERS
NFL
Detroit @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA -2 -103 over Detroit
(Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)
In terms of overreactions to prime time games, one need not look further than Minnesota’s 42-10 loss in its last game on a Thursday night game in Green Bay. Man, that was ugly and it was over after five minutes. That sets up this beautiful spot for the Vikings. Remember, Teddy Bridgewater did not play, which left Christian Ponder in charge. Ponder would have trouble moving the ball on SMU. The Vikes get Bridgewater back this week and he makes the biggest difference in the world. Bridgewater doesn’t play like a rookie. He’s quick as a jack rabbit and he’s smart too. The entire organization from the offense to the coaches, to the defense and to the fans, all have a different mindset when Bridgewater is in there. They believe they are going to win and we trust they will too. They Vikes pile up first downs with Teddy in there, which gives the defense some normal rest as oppose to being out there for 40 minutes a game when Ponder goes three and out every series. Besides that, the Lions are getting way too much credit in this number.
Detroit opened the year with a convincing win over the then unprepared Giants. The following week they were whacked in Carolina by 17 points. Detroit also defeated the sickening Jets by 7 and lost last week at home to Buffalo in a game in which they scored 14 points off of turnovers and ended up with 14 points. The Lions have played five games but their sixth game will mark the debut of their third kicker this season. Rookie Nate Freese got the hook after missing four of seven field goals. Alex Henery got two games and missed four of five field goals, including three Sunday in a three-point loss. Those two combined to miss eight of nine field goals beyond 40 yards. Detroit usually waits until December to fold, which could make this an ominous sign of things to come. Furthermore, Megatron is leaking fluid. Over the last three years, Calvin Johnson has seemingly been impervious to pain. He almost never practices on Wednesdays and Thursdays are usually part of that routine as well. But, after being a decoy against the Jets and catching one pass against Buffalo – and getting hurt doing it – the Lions are likely going to sit him for a week or two. Rarely do the Lions play well on the road and we doubt that changes here. With an entirely different feel around the team and in the stands when Teddy Bridgewater starts, he provides hope at the QB position and it is justifiable because he really does have the potential to be among the elite. With 10 days to prepare and coming off that horrible loss in prime time, we’ll go against the overreaction and gladly lay the points.
Carolina @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI -6½ -101 over Carolina
(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
Carolina is coming off a win over the Bears to run its record to 3-2. They had to rally from 14 down to get that win. That’s nice, it really is but let us remind you that prior to last week’s victory, the Panthers dropped consecutive games to the Steelers and Ravens by scores of 37-19 and 38-10 respectively. Those are two teams that reside in the same division as the Bengals. The Panthers are still a bad offense that suddenly has defensive problems too. Carolina has allowed 10 passing TD’s in five games. The rushing defense has been poor as well with recent teams breaking 100 total rushing yards on them and it’s also worth noting that they have the Packers on deck. Despite its 3-2 record, this is not a good football team and they’ll now head to Cinci to play a team in a very foul mood.
We often say that the best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping ship and that applies to the Bengals here. Additionally, there is almost always an overreaction/under-reaction to teams that played in prime time the previous week because they are so widely exposed. That, too, applies to the Bengals. Last Monday, Cinci remained the only unbeaten team in the NFL and they were expected to go into New England and beat up on that old and diminishing club. The opposite occurred and the result that night was a lot of ripped up tickets. That said, the Patriots hadn’t been that jacked up for a game in a very long time. They were taking a beating in the media the previous week and they had something to prove, which they did. The Bengals just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time but good teams bounce back and they bounce back hard after getting embarrassed. This line opened with the Bengals being a 7-point choice and it has come off that key number. More money is coming in on the Panthers as we write this, thus the over-reaction to last week’s loss in New England. That’s when we like to step in.
Pittsburgh @ CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh +105 over CLEVELAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)
The consensus is that the Steelers are not as good as before and the Browns may be better. We’re not so sure. These two met in the season opener back in Pittsburgh and the Brownies rallied from a 24-3 halftime deficit to almost steal a win, eventually losing 30-27. Last week the Brownies rallied from a 28-3 deficit against Tennessee and won 29-28. However, that all occurred after Jake Locker was injured. The Browns pulled a rabbit out of their hat in that game and almost pulled a rabbit out of their hat against Pittsburgh. One could argue that Pittsburgh took its foot off the gas in the second half and nearly got caught but in this league, you can’t expect to win when spotting the opposition 21 points every week. The Brownies have been involved in four intense games that have ALL come down to the final minute. That exerts a ton of energy and is a dangerous way to roll. Those intense and close games while having to rally week after week after week will take a toll. Furthermore, the Browns rank 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and 28th in the league in passing yards per game so it should come as no surprise that are often behind by a wide margin.
Enter the Steelers and RB Le'Veon Bell. Bell's average yards from scrimmage through the Steelers first five games is 138 yards. Bell is the first player in Steelers history to gain at least 100 yards from scrimmage in the first five games of a season. Bell piled up 197 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in that aforementioned 30-27 victory over the Browns on Sept. 7. Pittsburgh is not getting any credit because they recently lost to Tampa Bay and didn’t blow out the Jags last week. Let us point out that New Orleans hasn’t lost at home in two years and Tampa probably should have defeated them in New Orleans last week. These Steelers are better than advertised. They have as much offensive balance as any team in the league and they rank 11th and 12th respectively in rushing and passing yards allowed. Pittsburgh easily moved the ball on Baltimore and Carolina, scoring 37 points against the latter and racking up big yards against the Ravens. The Browns offense may be somewhat productive here but overall they have fragile intangibles that keep them from taking that next step and you can’t keep pulling rabbits out of your hat. Steelers outright.
NFL
Detroit @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA -2 -103 over Detroit
(Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)
In terms of overreactions to prime time games, one need not look further than Minnesota’s 42-10 loss in its last game on a Thursday night game in Green Bay. Man, that was ugly and it was over after five minutes. That sets up this beautiful spot for the Vikings. Remember, Teddy Bridgewater did not play, which left Christian Ponder in charge. Ponder would have trouble moving the ball on SMU. The Vikes get Bridgewater back this week and he makes the biggest difference in the world. Bridgewater doesn’t play like a rookie. He’s quick as a jack rabbit and he’s smart too. The entire organization from the offense to the coaches, to the defense and to the fans, all have a different mindset when Bridgewater is in there. They believe they are going to win and we trust they will too. They Vikes pile up first downs with Teddy in there, which gives the defense some normal rest as oppose to being out there for 40 minutes a game when Ponder goes three and out every series. Besides that, the Lions are getting way too much credit in this number.
Detroit opened the year with a convincing win over the then unprepared Giants. The following week they were whacked in Carolina by 17 points. Detroit also defeated the sickening Jets by 7 and lost last week at home to Buffalo in a game in which they scored 14 points off of turnovers and ended up with 14 points. The Lions have played five games but their sixth game will mark the debut of their third kicker this season. Rookie Nate Freese got the hook after missing four of seven field goals. Alex Henery got two games and missed four of five field goals, including three Sunday in a three-point loss. Those two combined to miss eight of nine field goals beyond 40 yards. Detroit usually waits until December to fold, which could make this an ominous sign of things to come. Furthermore, Megatron is leaking fluid. Over the last three years, Calvin Johnson has seemingly been impervious to pain. He almost never practices on Wednesdays and Thursdays are usually part of that routine as well. But, after being a decoy against the Jets and catching one pass against Buffalo – and getting hurt doing it – the Lions are likely going to sit him for a week or two. Rarely do the Lions play well on the road and we doubt that changes here. With an entirely different feel around the team and in the stands when Teddy Bridgewater starts, he provides hope at the QB position and it is justifiable because he really does have the potential to be among the elite. With 10 days to prepare and coming off that horrible loss in prime time, we’ll go against the overreaction and gladly lay the points.
Carolina @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI -6½ -101 over Carolina
(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
Carolina is coming off a win over the Bears to run its record to 3-2. They had to rally from 14 down to get that win. That’s nice, it really is but let us remind you that prior to last week’s victory, the Panthers dropped consecutive games to the Steelers and Ravens by scores of 37-19 and 38-10 respectively. Those are two teams that reside in the same division as the Bengals. The Panthers are still a bad offense that suddenly has defensive problems too. Carolina has allowed 10 passing TD’s in five games. The rushing defense has been poor as well with recent teams breaking 100 total rushing yards on them and it’s also worth noting that they have the Packers on deck. Despite its 3-2 record, this is not a good football team and they’ll now head to Cinci to play a team in a very foul mood.
We often say that the best time to jump on a team is when everyone else is jumping ship and that applies to the Bengals here. Additionally, there is almost always an overreaction/under-reaction to teams that played in prime time the previous week because they are so widely exposed. That, too, applies to the Bengals. Last Monday, Cinci remained the only unbeaten team in the NFL and they were expected to go into New England and beat up on that old and diminishing club. The opposite occurred and the result that night was a lot of ripped up tickets. That said, the Patriots hadn’t been that jacked up for a game in a very long time. They were taking a beating in the media the previous week and they had something to prove, which they did. The Bengals just happened to be in the wrong place at the wrong time but good teams bounce back and they bounce back hard after getting embarrassed. This line opened with the Bengals being a 7-point choice and it has come off that key number. More money is coming in on the Panthers as we write this, thus the over-reaction to last week’s loss in New England. That’s when we like to step in.
Pittsburgh @ CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh +105 over CLEVELAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)
The consensus is that the Steelers are not as good as before and the Browns may be better. We’re not so sure. These two met in the season opener back in Pittsburgh and the Brownies rallied from a 24-3 halftime deficit to almost steal a win, eventually losing 30-27. Last week the Brownies rallied from a 28-3 deficit against Tennessee and won 29-28. However, that all occurred after Jake Locker was injured. The Browns pulled a rabbit out of their hat in that game and almost pulled a rabbit out of their hat against Pittsburgh. One could argue that Pittsburgh took its foot off the gas in the second half and nearly got caught but in this league, you can’t expect to win when spotting the opposition 21 points every week. The Brownies have been involved in four intense games that have ALL come down to the final minute. That exerts a ton of energy and is a dangerous way to roll. Those intense and close games while having to rally week after week after week will take a toll. Furthermore, the Browns rank 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and 28th in the league in passing yards per game so it should come as no surprise that are often behind by a wide margin.
Enter the Steelers and RB Le'Veon Bell. Bell's average yards from scrimmage through the Steelers first five games is 138 yards. Bell is the first player in Steelers history to gain at least 100 yards from scrimmage in the first five games of a season. Bell piled up 197 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in that aforementioned 30-27 victory over the Browns on Sept. 7. Pittsburgh is not getting any credit because they recently lost to Tampa Bay and didn’t blow out the Jags last week. Let us point out that New Orleans hasn’t lost at home in two years and Tampa probably should have defeated them in New Orleans last week. These Steelers are better than advertised. They have as much offensive balance as any team in the league and they rank 11th and 12th respectively in rushing and passing yards allowed. Pittsburgh easily moved the ball on Baltimore and Carolina, scoring 37 points against the latter and racking up big yards against the Ravens. The Browns offense may be somewhat productive here but overall they have fragile intangibles that keep them from taking that next step and you can’t keep pulling rabbits out of your hat. Steelers outright.
