Service Plays Sunday 10/11/09

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Doc Sports

5 Unit Play. #118 Take Under 41 in Atlanta @ San Francisco (Sunday 4:05 pm Fox) San Francisco 17, Atlanta 14.

4 Unit Play. #106 Take Carolina -3 ½ over Washington (Sunday 12 pm Fox) Carolina 24, Washington 16.

4 Unit Play. #124 Take Seattle -1 over Jacksonville (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) Seattle 27, Jacksonville 17. Note: Line my change on this game with QB Hasselbeck's status, we still recommend the pick.

4 Unit Play. #126 Take Over 46 in Indianapolis @ Tennessee (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC) Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 24.

Strong Opinion Plays:
#116 Take St. Louis +10 over Minnesota
 
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Diceituponline

Vikings -10 = 25 Dimes
49ers -2 = 10 Dimes
Jets -2 = 10 Dimes

3 Team Teaser = 10 Dimes

Pitt -.5 (tease down 10)
Giants -4 (tease down 10)
Dallas +2 (tease down 10)
 

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Norm Hitzges NFL Sunday

hovering around .500

Double Play
· Philadelphia -14.5 vs Tampa
Single Plays
· New England -3 vs Denver
· Carolina -3.5 vs Washington
· Seattle pk vs Jacksonville
· Tennessee +3.5 vs Indianapolis
· Kansas City +8 vs Dallas
· St. Louis/Minnesota Under 41
· Philly/Tampa Under 42.5
· New England/Denver Under 41
· Houston/Arizona Over 50
 
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WUNDERDOG
Complimentary Picks and Analysis
Game: Minnesota at St. Louis (Sunday 10/11 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: St. Louis +10.5 (-115)
There isn't an argument to be made here that St. Louis belongs on the field against the Vikings as the Vikes are a perfect 4-0 and the Rams a very imperfect 0-4. We saw on Monday night a Vikings team that looks like Super Bowl material. But that was a huge game for them and Brett Favre. How do they get excited here, on the short week, facing the Rams after that huge Monday Night game? Brett Favre feels like he just won the Super Bowl as beating the Packers was about as important to him. To add fuel to the letdown-fire, the Vikings have monster games vs. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Green Bay again coming over the next month. If there were ever time for a breather, this week is it. The Rams offense has already been shut-out twice and has produced 21 points for opposing teams while generating just 24 themselves. This has to be as ugly a looking game as you could find on the card. That thought has been embraced by the public as well as they are lining up at nearly 90% on the Vikings, as if they already knew the final score. If the NFL truly worked that way everyone would be a millionaire. Sports bettors would be punching these giveaway easy win games each week and living the high-life in Beverly Hills. The problem for those folks is that the the NFL doesn't work that way. Despite favorites covering at a 67% rate the past two weeks, ugly is what covers in the NFL long term. If it didn't work this way, the bookmakers would be broke. So the argument here isn't to promote St. Louis as a good team, or disrobe a 4-0 Viking team. Instead the case is to be made for how classic an NFL game this is. A similar setup occurred in week six a year ago as the high-flying Dallas Cowboys were installed as a 9-point favorite coming to St. Louis. The Cowboys lost that game by 20! The Lions didn't win a single game last year, but they went on the road in their last six games as a double-digit dog and went 6-0 ATS. The fact is, 0-4 teams are 34-17 ATS since 1990. How ugly do you thinkthose teams looked going into those games? It doesn't get much uglier than 0-4. But, they got the money 67% of the time. Put those same teams up as a double-digit dog and they are 14-4 ATS and if they are a double-digit home dog, they are 3-0! While Joe Square is afraid of the chance he'll have his money on a team that loses 27-3, we aren't Joe Square. We are willing to risk that outcome, knowing that long term we are on the right side. Ugly is where the money is in the NFL and mine is on the Rams.
 

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igz1 sports

Friday Recap: 2-0 MLB
4-0 MLB Playoffs so far

NFL
3* San Fran -2.5 (-110)
 
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Strike Point

NFL - Week Five

5-Unit Play. #401 Take Minnesota -10 over St. Louis (Sunday 10/11 - 1 p.m. EST)

2-Unit Play. #406 Take Carolina -3.5 over Washington (Sunday 10/11 - 1 p.m. EST)

3-Unit Play. #419 Take New England -3 over Denver (Sunday 10/11 - 4:15 p.m. EST)

3-Unit Play. #425 Take Indianapolis -3.5 over Tennessee (Sunday 10/11 - 8:20 p.m. EST)

2-Unit Play. #427 Take New York Jets -1.5 over Miami (Monday 10/12 - 8:30 p.m. EST)
 
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Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 16-10 +15.0%


3% CAROLINA –3.5
3% BALTIMORE –8.5
3% SAN FRANCISCO –2.5
3% DENVER +3
 

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Burns

Titans *10
Rams *10
Detroit
Under Detroit/PItt
Under Titans/Colts
 

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Allen Eastman (ACE-ACE) picks

$2500.00 Take #419 New England (-3) over Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
only game that is a part of the "99 system". Bill Belichick has just dominated his former coaches. He beat up on Eric Mangini when Mangini was with the Jets and Romeo Crennel when Crennel was with the Browns. Now he is going to beat up on Josh McDaniels. I think that the Broncos are in a bit of a letdown spot after barely beating Dallas at home last week. Denver is 4-0 but they still haven’t played the quality of schedule that would make them a serious threat. The Patriots only have one loss and that was against a very good Jets team. But other than that, the Patriots have played some of the better teams in the league like Atlanta and Baltimore. They are going to be very focused for this game because you know that Belichick wants to beat his former pupil. New England always struggled out in Denver. But that was against Mike Shanahan. Shanahan had a very strong system and he was able to find the weakness in New England’s armor. But McDaniels is basically trying to run the same offense and the same system that he ran when he was in New England. I will take Tom Brady over Kyle Orton and I think that the Patriots will take care of business once again. New England is 36-16-1 ATS on the road and 5-2 ATS as a favorite.

$200.00 Take #405 Washington (+3.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
I think that this is a very sharp play for us. It seems like everyone is on Carolina this week. But I don’t understand why. The Panthers have gotten blown out in all of their games this year and I don’t think that they are a very good team right now. A lot of people are down on the Redskins because they haven’t been blowing out the bad teams. But their offense isn’t built that way. This is a team that wants to keep the score low, run the ball, and win close games. So far they have been pretty good at doing that. I think that Washington will be able to stop the Carolina run but I don’t think that Carolina can slow down Clinton Portis and the Redskins rushing attack. This will be a close game and getting points with the better team is too good to pass up.

$800.00#418 San Francisco (-2.5) over Atlanta (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
San Francisco has been dominating so far at home this year and they are one miracle Favre pass away from being undefeated. Atlanta is coming off a bye week but I think they are going to have a hard time getting back into the flow against a very big, very physical Niners team. San Francisco was able to shut down Adrian Peterson two weeks ago in Minnesota and I think that they are going to shut down Michael Turner, who has not been as strong for the Falcons this season. All the Niners have done since Singletary has taken over is win games. They are 4-0 ATS this year and they are now 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games since Singletary has taken over. The oddsmakers are giving us a gift here at 2.5 instead of 3.0, but I don’t think it will matter. I like the Niners to get another double-digit win at home and we will collect in the process.

$2000.00 Take #425 Indianapolis (-3.5) over Tennessee (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
People are just having too much trouble accepting the fact that Tennessee isn’t very good this year. This is not the same team that went 13-3 in the regular season in 2008 but the betting public just can’t admit it. Well, we will keep collecting on Peyton Manning, who has been as sharp as any quarterback in the league. Tennessee didn’t even show up last week against Jacksonville and it was shocking to see a Jeff Fisher team play with no passion like that. They should be getting at least a touchdown from an Indianapolis team that has already notched impressive road wins at Miami and at Arizona, two playoff teams from last year that are also struggling. It’s never a bad idea to put your money on Peyton Manning and we will do it again this week.

$300.00 Take #428 Miami (+2) over New York Jets (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 11)
How about another big Monday Night Football winner! Everyone loves the Jets right now and I expect that the public will keep pounding them now that they traded for Braylon Edwards. Not us. Miami has played well for three straight weeks but just doesn’t have the wins to show for it. This is also their second Monday Night Football game already this year and I think that it will be less of a distraction and be a big advantage for them. The Jets were physically beaten in New Orleans last week and I think that they have lost a little bit of their swagger. Miami is one of the more physical teams in the NFL and I think that they will be able to stop the run and make Mark Sanchez beat them. So far he hasn’t proven to this capper that he can do that.


Hou+5.5.......................................$200.00

Teaser
Hos +15.5
SF+7.5
MIA +11.........................................$200.00

MY hilton picks
NE
IND
SF
HOU
MIA

15-5 2ND PLAY
IN THE TOP 40 ONLY 3 OF US ARE ON MIA 11 ON NYJ!! THATS WHAT i LIKE TO SEE
cheers.gif


BEST TO ALL

ACE
 
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Maddux

#402 - NFL - 3 units on St. Louis +10
#406 - NFL - 5 units on Carolina -4
#407 - NFL - 3 units on Tampa Bay +15.5
#424 - NFL - 4 units on Seattle -1
#426 - NFL - 3 units on Tennessee +3.5
#428 - NFL - 3 units on Miami +1.5
 
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Colin Cowherd

New England minus the points (NE wins 28-13)

Carolina minus the points (Panthers win 27-12)

Cincinnati plus the points (Ravens win 26-24)

NY Jets minus the points (Jets win 27-9)

Atlanta plus the points (Falcons win 27-24)
 
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JEFF SCOTT SPORTS



5 UNIT PLAY (Total Of The Month)

Washington/ Carolina Under 37.5: Panthers have a 23.8 Offensive YPP (Yards Per Point), while the Skins YPP is 23.2. Just a recap for you, an average or good offensive YPP is 14 or below. Panther To's have given their opponents short field the last few weeks, but I feel the time off will have helped them correct some of the problems, which should me more time consuming possessions by them. The Skins offense is a mess and should have problems scoring vs the Fired up Panthers defense that has played pretty well thus far. The Skins defense is very solid this year so I really see scoring a problem on both sides. I see less than 30 points here.



4 UNIT PLAYS

SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 over Atlanta: The niners defense has been strong this year as they are 6th overall and 3rd vs the run. Falcons love to run the ball but are just 23rd in that department this year. Niners are 28th in total offense, but their offensive YPP is an amazing 10.4 and they will be taking on the 30th ranked defense. Niners are just too much for atlanta too handle here and should win this one by 7+.

Indy -4 over TENNESSEE: Titans 31st ranked passing defense will take on Peyton and his top ranked passing offense. Nuff Said. This one will be over early.



3 UNIT PLAYS

(Power Angle Play)

Minnesota -10 over ST LOUIS: The vikes are on letdown alert or this play would be rated higher. Teams only need to be at 50% these days to take care of the Rams, so the letdown shouldn't be a problem anyway. Vikes by at leat 2 TD's here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- PLay against a home dog that was shutout on the road last week. Angle is 22-9 since 1988.

Minnesota/ Houston Over 50: No running in this one as both teams are in the bottom 29 of that department,, while both offenses are 9th or better in passing. A shootout in the desert.



2 UNIT PLAYS

Dallas/ Kansas City Under 42.5

CAROLINA -3.5 over Washington

Giants/ Raiders Under 38.5



1 UNIT PLAYS

Cincinnati +9 over BALTIMORE

Pats/ Denver Under 41.5
 
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Handicapper: Evan Altemus
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills - Sunday October 11, 2009 1:00 pm
Pick: 5 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 41.5 (-110) (Play of the Day)



Cleveland’s offense got a boost last week by making the change to Derek Anderson as the starting quarterback. He threw for 270 yards against the Bengals, and Jerome Harrison rushed for over 120 yards. The Braylon Edwards trade won’t affect them because he didn’t even have an impact on last week’s game. In addition, there were reports that he was disgruntled and not motivated to play. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s defense is still a problem. They have given up 23 points or more in every game this season, and they should have given up more points than they did last week. Buffalo’s offense will have no problem getting going in this game. The Bills only scored 17 combined points in their last 2 games, but that is because they were playing against stout defenses in Miami and New Orleans. Because of their recent offensive struggles, I expect Buffalo to open things up in this game. Sharp bettors jumped all over this line when it came out, increasing it by two points. Look for this game to easily fly over the total.

5 UNIT SELECTION
 
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Tony George | NFL Side Sun, 10/11/09 - 1:00 PM u

double-dime bet 406 CAR -3.5 (-110) betus vs 405 WAS
Analysis:
Carolina -3.5

Have no doubts Tampa Bay† has no offense and no QB and Washington barely eaked out a win last week. Carolina HUNGRY for a win and off a bad loss at Dallas, they are well rested. Carolinas defense should show multiple blitz schemes against QB Campbell here and the run game of Carolina should prove difficult for Washibngtons defense, which is respectable. Remember schedule is key, Washington has played really no one, while Carolina has played better teams and really blew a Monday Night game at Dallas. Better QB (barely), better Running game, equal defense, better coach all in favor of Panthers in a MUST WIN SCENARIO..at home. In Washingtons last 12 games, they have had 1 cover!! Carolina by 10.

Play 2 Units..Top Play





Tony George | NFL Side Sun, 10/11/09 - 4:15 PM u

dime bet 419 NEP -3.0 (-110) betus vs 420 DEN
Analysis:
New England -3 to 3.5 max

Yes Denvers defense real deal on stats, but Cincy, Cleveland, Oakland not top contenders and Dallas cannot get out of their own way and moved chains against them all day long. Dallas had more yards and first downs last week in a loss. The Pats at home, against Denvers head coach who used to be a Patriot coach will have Bellichek wanting the win here big time, will be fo‹cused after big time win against Baltrimore where they did what they wanted on offense against a better defense. Brady getting better every week, offense starting to click and Denver attack on offense on the road is suspect here. Everyone thinks Denver will cover this and some think outright...beating a iffy Dallas team at home does little to boost the fact New England is getting it together and with Denver at 4-0, they have the Pats full attention.

Play 1 Unit on New England





Tony George | NFL Side Sun, 10/11/09 - 4:05 PM u

dime bet 417 ATL 2.5 (-110) betus vs 418 SFX
Analysis:
Atlanta +2.5

Have a sneaky feeeling here that Niners are good, but not that good. They… have beaten up some weak sisters here and not impressive wins as you look at the schedule. Atanta is well rested and a better team with a better QB. Wins over Seattle , Arizona and St. Louis not impressive for San Fran when looking at competition, I like Atlanta to win outright. Vegas oddsmakers beggin you to take San Fran here with this line under a fall number.

Play 1 Unit on Atlanta

Bonus 2 Team 6 point Teaser - Tease NY Giants down to -9.5 and tease Houston to +11.5 for a 1 Unit Bonus Teaser Play.
 

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