THE FALL MIRACLE
GREEN BAY (-2.5) over WASHINGTON
As I predicted last week, Detroit covered the big number at Green Bay after odds-makers adjusted the spread to 14.5 up from 13 when the Pack beat up Buffalo, and when the Lions failed to cover 13 at Minnesota. Since playing Buffalo, the Packers had a pair of "off" games. They should have won at Chicago, but could have easily lost to the Lions. Detroit out-gained them by 160 yards but a pair of critical interceptions did them in. Green Bay wasn't mistake free either, as they turned the ball over 4 times. They did not have more than 3 turnovers in any game last season, so don't expect them to have such a sloppy game for 2 weeks in a row. Additionally, the Lions got 431 yards of offense. The Packers defense gave up over 400 yards just once last season at Pittsburgh, and settled down to allow under 300 in the next game. Actually the unit was one of the best in the NFL last season down the stretch, allowing under 300 yards in 10 of the last 13 games. The Redskins defense gave up 420 regulation passing yards vs. Houston and another 80 yards in overtime. It's not often an NFL QB passes for 500 yards in a game. That might spell trouble vs. the Packers, and as well, Donovan is coming off an emotionally charged win at Philadelphia.
The Redskins didn't defeat a playoff team last season, so this is a good time to go against them for a game as just a small underdog to a good team where a field goal will win it. The Packers did 2 things vs. Detroit that happened just once all of last season (4 TO and 400 yards allowed) so neither is likely to happen once again, consecutively, this Sunday in Washington.
Green Bay 28, Washington 24
Play on: GREEN BAY PACKERS
ARIZONA (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
For the 2nd time in as many weeks, the Cardinals embarrassed themselves on the road against an angry Chargers team. That's 2 blowouts in the first 4 games, but remember they got blown out 3 times on the road in 2008 before making it to the Super Bowl. Derek Andersen struggled in all 4 games so far and he might not start this weekend. Max Hall would be the other choice, but if the Panthers stayed competitive at New Orleans with Jimmy Clausen, then Arizona can do the same with Max Hall at home. Reggie Bush is still hurt and the Saints aren't the same team without him. Since jumping out to a 6-0 ATS record in dominating fashion last season, the Saints are 3-11 ATS in the regular season. The problem at San Diego was Arizona's o-line, which must improve if they are to make the most of their talented playmakers on offense, and they do have a few. The 7 points is the biggest underdog the Cardinals have been at home since the Monday Night game in 2006 when they lost 24-23 to the Bears as an 11 point dog. In terms of the spread, it's also another timing thing: Arizona missed the spread vs. Oakland coming off the blowout at Atlanta, but they were not a good value since they were favored. They now get a 2nd chance but are a better value as an underdog, with a Saints team that will need 2 scores to cover the spread.
When Arizona got crushed at Atlanta
41-7, they came home to beat Oakland as a 5 point favorite. Coming off a 41-10 loss at San Diego and now a TD underdog, I'll go out on a limb and call for the Cardinals to bounce back under coach Whisenhunt in their new stadium, where they are 13-0 SU after a loss.
New Orleans 24, Arizona 21
Play on: ARIZONA CARDINALS