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Jimmy Boyd's Pick Pack
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Matchup: Brooklyn at Boston
Time: 6:35 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (193.0 -110)
Line Source: SouthPoint
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
4* Total Dominator on Nets/Celtics UNDER
The total in this game seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. Boston is playing some solid defense right now surrendering just 87.8 points per game against division opponents. The Celtics offense has been horrible this year, so I think the Nets are poised for a strong defensive performance too. Boston averages 95.1 points per game and should struggle against this Brooklyn team that has held opponents to 96.4 points per game over its last five games. That five game stretch has come against opponents with a lot more scoring potential than the Celtics bring to this matchup. The under is 14-4 in Boston's last 18 home games when coming off a matchup with a non-conference opponent. The under is also 12-4 when Boston has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Brooklyn is well rested right now, playing just their second game in five days. The under is 26-14 in the Nets last 40 games when playing in a 2-in-5 situation over the last two seasons. There is a very profitable system backing the under in this matchup. You should play the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and the road team is well rested playing their second game in five days, and they have won 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season. This system is 48-21 (70%) to the under for the last five seasons. With both teams playing solid defense recently I expect this to be a very low scoring game.
Matchup: Brooklyn at Boston
Time: 6:35 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Brooklyn (-4 -102)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
3* Oddsmakers Error on Brooklyn Nets -
The Celtics are a bad team and I like the Nets to win this game in a blowout. Brooklyn is the hottest team in the league since the New Year winning nine of its last 10 games. They have covered the spread in eight of those games, yet the oddsmakers still seem to be undervaluing the Nets. A once struggling offense from Brooklyn is now averaging 103.1 points per game over its last five games. Boston comes into this game with a 3-16 record in their last 19 games. I don't expect home court advantage to be a big factor since it is a short travel time from Brooklyn to Boston, and the Celtics fan base will probably be more excited about seeing Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett than they will their own players. Pierce and Garnett were key factors in turning the Celtics franchise around, and this will be the first game on their old home court since the blockbuster trade that sent them to the Nets. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are coming off a loss by 10 or more points, and they are facing an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in three straight games. This system has a 43-19 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
Matchup: Portland at Golden State
Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Golden State (-5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
4* Vegas Insider on Golden State Warriors -
We are getting a lot of value on the Warriors today thanks to a couple bad performances against some very good teams. I have Golden State getting things back on track tonight with a big win over Portland. The Trailblazers have been horrible defensively. They are surrendering 110.2 points per game over their last five games, and things could get really out of hand tonight against this Warriors team that averages 105.9 points per game at home. While Golden State has had a few struggles on the defensive end of the court recently, you also can't ignore the fact that they held opponents to an average of 92.8 points per game during their recent 10 game win streak. Portland has lost its last two games on the road, scoring just 97 points in their last outing against Oklahoma City. I expect a similar performance out of the Trailblazers in this game, thanks to a strong defensive performance from Golden State. The Warriors are 20-7 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. Portland on the other hand has a 1-10 ATS record in road games after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more. This matchup also fits a system to play on favorites like Golden State when they are allowing a shooting percentage of 43.5 to 45.5 percent and are playing a poor defensive team allowing 45.5 to 47.5 percent when both teams have a +3 to +5.5 figure in rebounding margin. This system is 39-17 (70%) against the spread.
Matchup: San Antonio at Miami
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (203.5 -110)
Line Source: CarbonSports
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
Free Pick on Spurs/Heat UNDER
The total for this game has been set way too high considering this matchup features two very talented defensive teams. The Spurs are holding opponents to a mere 94.3 points per game on the road this season. They are up against a Miami team that is allowing 98.5 points per game. San Antonio has gone under the total in three of its last four games. While Miami may not have that same trend right now, you also cannot ignore the fact that three of their last four totals have been set well under the mark set in today's matchup. You should play the under when the total is 200 points or more, the home team is making over 47.5 percent of its shot attempts overall, they have made over 50 percent of their attempts in two straight games, and they are facing an average defensive team allowing a shooting percentage between 43.5 to 45.5 percent. This system identifies games where the oddsmakers set the bar too high on the total. The under has a 41-11 (79%) record in this scenario. These teams share two of the best records in the league because of their outstanding defensive play this season, and I expect this game to stay well under the posted total.
Jimmy Boyd's Pick Pack
NBA Daily Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Brooklyn at Boston
Time: 6:35 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (193.0 -110)
Line Source: SouthPoint
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
4* Total Dominator on Nets/Celtics UNDER
The total in this game seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. Boston is playing some solid defense right now surrendering just 87.8 points per game against division opponents. The Celtics offense has been horrible this year, so I think the Nets are poised for a strong defensive performance too. Boston averages 95.1 points per game and should struggle against this Brooklyn team that has held opponents to 96.4 points per game over its last five games. That five game stretch has come against opponents with a lot more scoring potential than the Celtics bring to this matchup. The under is 14-4 in Boston's last 18 home games when coming off a matchup with a non-conference opponent. The under is also 12-4 when Boston has been an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Brooklyn is well rested right now, playing just their second game in five days. The under is 26-14 in the Nets last 40 games when playing in a 2-in-5 situation over the last two seasons. There is a very profitable system backing the under in this matchup. You should play the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and the road team is well rested playing their second game in five days, and they have won 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season. This system is 48-21 (70%) to the under for the last five seasons. With both teams playing solid defense recently I expect this to be a very low scoring game.
Matchup: Brooklyn at Boston
Time: 6:35 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Brooklyn (-4 -102)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
3* Oddsmakers Error on Brooklyn Nets -
The Celtics are a bad team and I like the Nets to win this game in a blowout. Brooklyn is the hottest team in the league since the New Year winning nine of its last 10 games. They have covered the spread in eight of those games, yet the oddsmakers still seem to be undervaluing the Nets. A once struggling offense from Brooklyn is now averaging 103.1 points per game over its last five games. Boston comes into this game with a 3-16 record in their last 19 games. I don't expect home court advantage to be a big factor since it is a short travel time from Brooklyn to Boston, and the Celtics fan base will probably be more excited about seeing Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett than they will their own players. Pierce and Garnett were key factors in turning the Celtics franchise around, and this will be the first game on their old home court since the blockbuster trade that sent them to the Nets. This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are coming off a loss by 10 or more points, and they are facing an opponent that has scored 100 points or more in three straight games. This system has a 43-19 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.
Matchup: Portland at Golden State
Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Golden State (-5 -110)
Line Source: Stations
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
4* Vegas Insider on Golden State Warriors -
We are getting a lot of value on the Warriors today thanks to a couple bad performances against some very good teams. I have Golden State getting things back on track tonight with a big win over Portland. The Trailblazers have been horrible defensively. They are surrendering 110.2 points per game over their last five games, and things could get really out of hand tonight against this Warriors team that averages 105.9 points per game at home. While Golden State has had a few struggles on the defensive end of the court recently, you also can't ignore the fact that they held opponents to an average of 92.8 points per game during their recent 10 game win streak. Portland has lost its last two games on the road, scoring just 97 points in their last outing against Oklahoma City. I expect a similar performance out of the Trailblazers in this game, thanks to a strong defensive performance from Golden State. The Warriors are 20-7 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games. Portland on the other hand has a 1-10 ATS record in road games after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more. This matchup also fits a system to play on favorites like Golden State when they are allowing a shooting percentage of 43.5 to 45.5 percent and are playing a poor defensive team allowing 45.5 to 47.5 percent when both teams have a +3 to +5.5 figure in rebounding margin. This system is 39-17 (70%) against the spread.
Matchup: San Antonio at Miami
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sun)
Play: Under (203.5 -110)
Line Source: CarbonSports
Posted on: January 26, 2014 @ 10:56:05 AM EST
Free Pick on Spurs/Heat UNDER
The total for this game has been set way too high considering this matchup features two very talented defensive teams. The Spurs are holding opponents to a mere 94.3 points per game on the road this season. They are up against a Miami team that is allowing 98.5 points per game. San Antonio has gone under the total in three of its last four games. While Miami may not have that same trend right now, you also cannot ignore the fact that three of their last four totals have been set well under the mark set in today's matchup. You should play the under when the total is 200 points or more, the home team is making over 47.5 percent of its shot attempts overall, they have made over 50 percent of their attempts in two straight games, and they are facing an average defensive team allowing a shooting percentage between 43.5 to 45.5 percent. This system identifies games where the oddsmakers set the bar too high on the total. The under has a 41-11 (79%) record in this scenario. These teams share two of the best records in the league because of their outstanding defensive play this season, and I expect this game to stay well under the posted total.
