SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PLAYOFFS
N.Y. Jets (11-7 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (15-2, 11-6 ATS)
The upstart Jets, who barely even qualified for the playoffs, now travel to Lucas Oil Stadium for the second time in a month to battle the top-seeded Colts in the AFC Championship Game.
New York shocked second-seeded San Diego on Sunday, scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns and riding its strong running game and defense to a 17-14 divisional-round upset as a 7½-point road underdog. The Jets had just 262 total yards, but 169 of those came on the ground, with Shonn Greene racking up 128 yards on just 23 carries, including a back-breaking 53-yard TD jaunt that proved to be the difference
New York also benefited greatly from All-Pro Chargers kicker Nate Kaeding going 0-for-3, including misses from 36 and 40 yards. That came a week after the Bengals missed two chip-shot field goals, helping the Jets to a 10-point wild-card win. Rex Ryan’s troops are now a torrid 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games, easily the hottest of the remaining playoff teams.
Indianapolis, coming off a first-round bye despite losing its last two regular-season games SU and ATS, stuffed Baltimore 20-3 Saturday as a 6½-point home favorite. The Colts got a field goal on the opening drive, allowed the Ravens to do the same, then didn’t give up a point the rest of the game. Indy outgained Baltimore by just 5 yards (275-270), but won the turnover battle 4-1, forcing two Joe Flacco INTs and recovering two fumbles, including one from the Ravens’ Ed Reed after he picked off Peyton Manning for the Colts’ lone turnover.
The Colts rushed for just 42 yards, putting the burden on Manning, who finished 30 of 44 for 246 yards and two TDs.
New York is in the playoffs for the sixth time since 1998, but this is its first AFC final appearance since that 1998 campaign, when it lost to eventual champion Denver 23-10 as an 8½-point road pup. The Jets have not reached the Super Bowl since their lone historic appearance after the 1968 season, when – coincidentally – Joe Namath and Co. shocked the Colts 16-7 in Super Bowl III.
Indianapolis is in the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season, and last week’s victory followed two straight years in which it lost its postseason opener --- in the divisional round two years ago and in the wild-card round last year, both to the Chargers. The Colts are seeking their second Super Bowl berth in four years, having dropped Chicago 29-17 as a 6½-point chalk after the 2006 season. Prior to that, the Colts hadn’t reached the Super Bowl since the 1970 season, when the franchise – then based in Baltimore – edged Dallas 16-13 in Super Bowl V.
These rivals have some very recent history, as New York spoiled Indianapolis’ perfect record four weeks ago in the same venue as this weekend’s clash. Colts rookie coach Jim Caldwell had guided his team to a 14-0 record, and Indy had a 15-10 third-quarter lead against the Jets when Caldwell inexplicably pulled Manning and other starters. The Jets went on to post a 29-15 victory as a three-point underdog and are now 4-1 ATS in the last five contests with the Colts.
Despite that outcome, the home team is 7-3-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the SU winner is on a 7-1 ATS tear. Also, the SU winner has covered in all 18 Jets games this year and 20 straight overall, and the winner is 8-0 ATS in Indy’s last eight.
New York rated a below-average 20th in total offense this year (321 ypg), and was slightly better at No. 17 in scoring (21.8 ppg). However, the Jets field the NFL’s most potent running attack, piling up 172.2 ypg in the regular season, while adding 171 and 169 rushing yards in their two playoff wins. Jones (1,402 yards) trailed only the Titans’ Chris Johnson and the Rams’ Steven Jackson in rushing yards, and he also had 14 regular-season rushing touchdowns. Including the playoffs, Sanchez has 14 TDs passes and 21 INTs (his 20 INTs in the regular season were second-most in the league, and he also fumbled 10 times, losing three. In the postseason, Sanchez has thrown two TDs and one INT, and he’s been picked just once in his last four games (all New York wins).
Defensively, the Jets ranked No. 1 in points and yards allowed, at a stifling 14.8 ppg and 252.3 ypg, and they had the No. 1 pass defense (153.7 ypg) thanks largely to shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis (6 INTs). But due to Sanchez’s rookie penchant for INTs, New York posted only a plus-1 turnover margin (17th). That said, the Jets have a plus-2 margin in the postseason, forcing two turnovers in each game while committing just one in each, and they’ve allowed a suffocating average of 9.4 ppg during their current 7-1 run.
Behind the NFL’s second-best passing attack (282.2 ypg), Indy averaged 363.1 total ypg (ninth) and 26 ppg (seventh). Manning threw for exactly 4,500 yards and had 33 TDs against 16 INTs, with five players recording 47 or more catches. WR Reggie Wayne (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs) and TE Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TDs) led the way.
Indianapolis allowed 339.2 ypg (18th) in regular-season action, but that translated into just 19.2 ppg (ninth). The Colts had a nominal plus-2 turnover margin in the regular season. However, as noted above, Indy was plus-3 in last week’s victory over Baltimore.
The Jets are on a plethora of pointspread streaks, including 4-0 overall (all against winning teams), 5-0 on the highway, 6-1 in January, 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 4-1 in playoff roadies and 8-2 as an underdog. However, road teams coming off a playoff upset are on a 26-47 ATS purge.
The Colts are on ATS upswings of 6-3 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 6-2 as a chalk, 8-2 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win, 5-2 in the playoffs and 5-2 in home postseason tilts.
New York is on “over” runs of 5-1 in January, 6-2-1 against AFC foes and 3-1-1 versus winning teams, and the over for Indianapolis is on surges of 4-1 overall (all within the AFC) and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win. In addition, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry. Also, the past four years, the over has gone 12-4 in conference championship games.
Conversely, the under is 7-2 in the Colts’ last nine playoff contests and 7-3 in Indy’s last 10 January affairs, and both teams’ playoff games last week fell well short of the posted totals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Minnesota (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) at New Orleans (14-3, 9-8 ATS)
The top two teams in the conference all season long will square off in the NFC Championship Game, with the No. 1-seeded Saints playing host to Brett Favre and the second-seeded Vikings at the Superdome.
New Orleans, which won its first 13 games of the regular season (8-5 ATS) but went 0-3 SU and ATS down the stretch, showed the bye week was just what it needed last Saturday, throttling fourth-seeded Arizona 45-14 Saturday as a seven-point favorite. The Saints gave up a 70-yard TD run on the game’s first play from scrimmage before scoring 45 of the next 52 points. In easily cashing against the Cardinals, New Orleans ended an 0-5 ATS skid.
QB Drew Brees (23 of 32, 247 yards, 3 TDs) led a turnover-free offense, and Reggie Bush had a TD run of 46 yards and an 83-yard punt-return TD that capped the scoring midway through the third quarter. The defense, meanwhile, forced two turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble recovery) en route to dethroning the defending NFC champions.
Minnesota had a first-round bye as well and also proceeded to win in surprisingly easy fashion, dominating Dallas in a 34-3 beatdown as a 2½-point home chalk last Sunday. Favre was efficient and effective, going 15 of 24 for 234 yards and a playoff career-high four TDs. The Vikings’ defense beat up on Cowboys QB Tony Romo, sacking him six times while forcing an INT and three fumbles (recovering two) to win the turnover battle 3-0.
The Vikes went on a 1-3 SU and ATS skid in December, costing them a shot to be hosting this week’s game, but they’ve rebounded by outscoring their past two opponents – the Giants in the regular-season finale and the Pokes last week – by a whopping total of 78-10.
New Orleans is in the playoffs after a two-year drought and has reached its second conference title game in four years. The Saints made a run at the Super Bowl following the 2006 regular season, topping Philadelphia 27-24 at home as a 5½-point chalk in the divisional round before getting ripped in chilly Chicago 39-14 as a 2½-point pup in the NFC Championship Game.
New Orleans has never reached the Super Bowl and is fighting some negative recent history within its conference, as the No. 1 seed in the NFC hasn’t advanced to the Super Bowl since the Rams did so in 1999. Additionally, the last time both top seeds qualified for the Super Bowl was back in 1993.
Minnesota, the NFC North champ for the second straight year after a three-year playoff hiatus, bounced back nicely from its short postseason stay last season, when it lost at home to Philadelphia 26-14 as a three-point wild-card pup. The Vikings have reached the Super Bowl four times – losing all four – but haven’t gotten a shot at the Lombardi Trophy since Super Bowl XI, losing 32-14 to Oakland 33 years ago.
Minnesota lost its last two NFC title-game appearances, both as a chalk – 30-27 in overtime to Atlanta as a whopping 10½-point home favorite after the 1998 season, and a 41-0 blowout two years later against the Giants laying three points on the road.
The week before that loss to the Giants, Minnesota bested New Orleans 34-16 in the divisional round as an eight-point home favorite. That contest began a 5-1 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry for the Vikings, including 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four clashes. Most recently, Minnesota squeaked out a 30-27 Monday Night road win as a three-point pup in October 2008. Also, the SU winner has cashed in the last seven meetings, the winner is 4-0 ATS in the Saints’ last four overall and 10-0-1 ATS in Minnesota’s last 11.
New Orleans led the league in total offense (403.8 ypg) and scoring (31.9 ppg) in the regular season. In fact, the Saints scored 30 points or more nine times in the first 13 games and had seven games of 35 points or more, including four in the 40s – a trend they continued with last week’s rout. QB Drew Brees engineered a passing attack that averaged 272.2 ypg (fourth), as he threw for 4,388 yards and a league-leading 34 TDs against just 11 INTs.
Brees was also the top rated QB (109.6), completing an NFL-record 70.6 percent of his passes, and four Saints finished with at least 550 yards receiving, paced by Marques Colston (1,074 yards, 9 TDs). Defensively, New Orleans was not quite as sharp, allowing 357.8 ypg (25th) and 21.3 ppg (20th), but the Saints posted a plus-11 turnover margin, third-best in the NFL, and they are now plus-13 after last week’s effort, the best margin of any of the remaining playoff teams.
New Orleans also led the NFL in defensive TDs with eight, twice as many as any other team.
Favre, at age 40, paced the NFL’s fifth-best total offense (379.6 ypg) in the regular season, with the passing game netting 259.8 ypg (eighth). Favre threw for 4,202 yards (ninth) and had 33 TDs – tied for second with Peyton Manning – against just seven INTs, which tied for the second-lowest total. WR Sidney Rice (84 catches, 1,316 yards, 8 TDs) was the main threat for a team that averaged 29.4 ppg, second only to New Orleans. Rice had three TD catches last week.
RB Adrian Peterson’s numbers were down this year, though he still finished with 1,389 yards rushing and 18 TDs, along with 43 catches for another 436 yards.
Defensively, Minnesota allowed 305.5 ypg (sixth) and 19.5 ppg (10th). The Vikings really made their mark by hounding quarterbacks, as they racked up a league-best 48 sacks, helping them post a plus-6 turnover margin (ninth). Jared Allen had 14½ sacks, the second-best total in the league, and fellow defensive end Ray Edwards (8½ regular-season sacks) had three sacks in last week’s win over Dallas. Minnesota also sported the second-best rush defense, yielding only 87.1 ypg on the ground.
The Saints are on ATS upswings of 4-0 at home against teams with a winning road mark, 11-3 when laying 3½ to 10 points, 6-1 as a home chalk of that same price, 9-3-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 against winning teams and 5-1 following a SU win of more than 14 points. In addition, home teams in the NFC Championship Game are on a 21-8 SU and 18-11 ATS run.
On the flip side, New Orleans also shoulders negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 overall (all within the NFC), 1-4 as a favorite, 1-4 in January and 2-6 following a SU win. Also, since 1977, teams that scored 40 or more points in the divisional round are 9-4 SU but just 4-9 ATS (1-6 ATS last 7).
The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against winning teams and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 NFC matchups. However, they are in pointspread ruts of 1-4 on the highway, 1-4 as a playoff pup, 1-4 in playoff roadies, 8-17-1 coming off a SU win of more than 14 points and 7-15 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Furthermore, visiting teams coming off a victory of 30 or more points are 0-4 SU and ATS in conference title contests.
Despite its high-octane offense, New Orleans sports “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home (all as a chalk) and 5-2 as a favorite, while the under for the equally potent Vikings is on stretches of 7-2 overall, 5-0-1 in the postseason, 7-2-1 in January, 6-2 against NFC opponents, 36-15-1 after a spread-cover and 35-16-1 following a SU win.
On the flip side, the over for the Saints is on sprees of 4-0-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 in January and 18-7-1 following an ATS victory, and the over is 8-2 in the Vikings’ last 10 starts as a road ‘dog. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in each of the last four clashes, with the 30-27 shootout in New Orleans last season easily clearing the 47-point price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(19) Georgia Tech (14-4, 9-4 ATS) at Florida State (14-4, 4-9 ATS)
Florida State will try to knock off the Yellow Jackets for the fifth straight time – and second time this season – when these ACC rivals clash at the Tucker Center in Tallahassee.
Georgia Tech is coming off consecutive victories over ranked conference opponents, edging North Carolina 73-71 as a 6½-point road underdog last Saturday followed by Tuesday’s 66-64 squeaker against Clemson as a one-point road favorite. Throw in a 71-67 upset of Duke as a seven-point home pup on Jan. 13, and the Yellow Jackets have won three in a row SU and ATS against Top 25 competition, but mixed in with those three wins was an 82-75 loss at unranked Virginia as a two-point road ‘dog. On the season, they’re 5-3 SU and ATS in road/neutral-site games.
The Seminoles snapped a two-game losing skid with last Saturday’s 63-58 home win over Virginia Tech, falling just short as a six-point favorite, the team’s third straight non-cover. Florida State had won its first nine home games this year before tumbling against North Carolina State in its most recent contest at the Tucker Center, losing 88-81 as a whopping 11-point favorite. The ‘Noles put up 80.1 points per game and shoot 50.5 percent from the field at home while giving up 59 ppg (33.6 percent shooting), yet they’re just 1-5 ATS in lined contests in their building.
These teams opened the ACC season against each other on Dec. 20 in Atlanta, with Florida State scoring a 66-59 overtime victory as a 5½-point road underdog. The Seminoles beat Georgia Tech twice last year (once at home, once in the ACC tournament) by a total of six points and failed to cover as a favorite in both games. In fact, while FSU has won four in a row in this rivalry, it is just 2-2 ATS and the four wins have come by a total of 15 points, with the largest margin of victory coming in last month’s overtime contest.
Also in this series, the ‘dog has cashed in 15 of the last 18 meetings, the visitor is 4-0 ATS in the last four and the Yellow Jackets have covered in five of the last seven games overall and each of their last three trips to Tallahassee.
Georgia Tech has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games on Sunday, but is otherwise on positive pointspread pushes of 13-4 overall, 7-2 on the road, 7-2 in ACC play, 11-4 against winning teams, 10-4 following a SU victory and 7-2 after a spread-cover. Conversely, the Seminoles are in ATS funks of 2-7 overall, 1-5 at home, 1-4 in ACC action and 1-5 after a non-cover.
The last five meetings in this rivalry have stayed under the total, and the Yellow Jackets are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in ACC action, 5-0 against winning teams and 15-7-1 on Sunday. The under is also 16-4-1 in Florida State’s last 21 on Sunday, but the ‘Noles are 6-2-1 “over” in their last nine overall and 4-1-1 “over” in their last six at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and UNDER
