SPORTS INSIGHTS
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition (2-0 = 100.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Super Bowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Public is solidly with Indianapolis, with almost 60% of the bets taking the playoff-experienced Colts. The line opened at Jets +7, but the general consensus of bets taking the Colts has pushed the line to Jets +7.5. If you shop around, you can find Jets +8 at several reputable sportsbooks. There is some decent value based on the line move from the key number of +7 all the way to +8. The line has even ticked to Jets +8.5 at one or two books, but you should be careful about what "vig" you pay at that line.
The Colts almost had a perfect season, before coasting in for a few meaningless losses to end the season. The Jets were the last team to claim a playoff spot. Although the Jets quietly eked into the playoffs in the last game of the regular season, their good defense and solid running game are helping them make some noise in the playoffs. The NFL's best defense, getting +8 points, is a solid value.
This match-up is similar to other games where one team has more of a "powerhouse" reputation. The Colts certainly have the ability to blow out the Jets. However, historically -- more often than not, the game ends up being closer than expected. The Jets have the defense and running game to play with the Colts. Let's "Bet Against the Public" and take the streaking Jets +8 points.
New York Jets +8
Games to Watch - Playoff Edition (2-0 100%)
New York Jets +8
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition (2-0 = 100.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most-wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Super Bowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Super Bowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Public is solidly with Indianapolis, with almost 60% of the bets taking the playoff-experienced Colts. The line opened at Jets +7, but the general consensus of bets taking the Colts has pushed the line to Jets +7.5. If you shop around, you can find Jets +8 at several reputable sportsbooks. There is some decent value based on the line move from the key number of +7 all the way to +8. The line has even ticked to Jets +8.5 at one or two books, but you should be careful about what "vig" you pay at that line.
The Colts almost had a perfect season, before coasting in for a few meaningless losses to end the season. The Jets were the last team to claim a playoff spot. Although the Jets quietly eked into the playoffs in the last game of the regular season, their good defense and solid running game are helping them make some noise in the playoffs. The NFL's best defense, getting +8 points, is a solid value.
This match-up is similar to other games where one team has more of a "powerhouse" reputation. The Colts certainly have the ability to blow out the Jets. However, historically -- more often than not, the game ends up being closer than expected. The Jets have the defense and running game to play with the Colts. Let's "Bet Against the Public" and take the streaking Jets +8 points.
New York Jets +8
Games to Watch - Playoff Edition (2-0 100%)
New York Jets +8
Doug Williams
New York Jets +7.5 @ Indianapolis Colts -7.5
The Jets are winners of seven of their last eight both SU and against the number, and nobody expected them to get this far. The Jets had a 29-15 win at Indianapolis in Week 16, but that does not really matter here, does it? I don’t see the Jets being able to put up more than 13 points and Peyton Manning could put up more than that in just one quarter
My Pick: Indianapolis Covers -7.5
Sun, Jan 24 6.40PM ET
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ New Orleans Saints -3.5
Expect a shootout when the New Orleans Saints (14-3, 9-8 ATS) host the Minnesota Vikings (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) on Sunday evening. The Saints have the edge in the running game, defenses are pretty well matched, and I have to lean towards the Vikings overall. I would love to see Brett Favre in the Super Bowl, I hope that's not clouding my judgement. If it was Drew Brees Vs. Brett Favre I'd say Favre has the edge.
My Pick: Minnesota Covers +3.5
New York Jets +7.5 @ Indianapolis Colts -7.5
The Jets are winners of seven of their last eight both SU and against the number, and nobody expected them to get this far. The Jets had a 29-15 win at Indianapolis in Week 16, but that does not really matter here, does it? I don’t see the Jets being able to put up more than 13 points and Peyton Manning could put up more than that in just one quarter
My Pick: Indianapolis Covers -7.5
Sun, Jan 24 6.40PM ET
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @ New Orleans Saints -3.5
Expect a shootout when the New Orleans Saints (14-3, 9-8 ATS) host the Minnesota Vikings (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS) on Sunday evening. The Saints have the edge in the running game, defenses are pretty well matched, and I have to lean towards the Vikings overall. I would love to see Brett Favre in the Super Bowl, I hope that's not clouding my judgement. If it was Drew Brees Vs. Brett Favre I'd say Favre has the edge.
My Pick: Minnesota Covers +3.5
Indian Cowboy
Take Under 53 Minnesota at New Orleans (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 24)
Many are expecting a high-scoring affair between these two squads but I think it will have more of a defensive element than people realize. Remember, the Saints defense fed off their crowd and held the Cardinals in check. The Vikings defense is second against the run in the league not to mention 10th in the league in points allowed as well. I think both of these defenses will be more than ready and consequently the offenses for both will be sluggish until the mid-third quarter when these two teams will finally get it going. Look for this game to have a more defensive element and at the end of the day 53 points is a very high NFL total. The under is 5-0-1 for the Vikings in their last six playoff games and the under is 4-1 for the Saints when they are favored.
Take Under 53 Minnesota at New Orleans (6:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 24)
Many are expecting a high-scoring affair between these two squads but I think it will have more of a defensive element than people realize. Remember, the Saints defense fed off their crowd and held the Cardinals in check. The Vikings defense is second against the run in the league not to mention 10th in the league in points allowed as well. I think both of these defenses will be more than ready and consequently the offenses for both will be sluggish until the mid-third quarter when these two teams will finally get it going. Look for this game to have a more defensive element and at the end of the day 53 points is a very high NFL total. The under is 5-0-1 for the Vikings in their last six playoff games and the under is 4-1 for the Saints when they are favored.
trike Point Sports
Take New York/Indianapolis 'Over' 39.5 (3 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 24)
Despite conventional wisdom suggesting this will be another game with the Jets staying under the posted total, I think it will take 24 points or so to win this game. And that's mainly assuming that Peyton Manning and his offense will score points on the Jets defense. I do think New York, too, will have success with the ball. If they put up 17 points in the second half against a better Chargers defense, I think 20 on Indy isn't out of the question. I say we'll see a 24-20 type score in this year's AFC Championship Game.
Take New York/Indianapolis 'Over' 39.5 (3 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 24)
Despite conventional wisdom suggesting this will be another game with the Jets staying under the posted total, I think it will take 24 points or so to win this game. And that's mainly assuming that Peyton Manning and his offense will score points on the Jets defense. I do think New York, too, will have success with the ball. If they put up 17 points in the second half against a better Chargers defense, I think 20 on Indy isn't out of the question. I say we'll see a 24-20 type score in this year's AFC Championship Game.
Trace Adams
2000* - Minnesota Vikings, 500* - Minnesota MONEY LINE PLAY, 500* - NY Jets Forget the fact the Vikings struggled on the road to end the regular season, NONE of those games were contested in a domed stadium. This one is, and this one is against an opponent they have owned over the years, going 8-1 straight up in the 9 previous meetings.
This one is also being contested in the stadium that Brett Favre won his only Super Bowl in. You kinda feel like the karmic mojo is on the side of the Purple and Gold? I do, and I also feel the Vikings are the better team, thus I am willing to also back them on the MONEY LINE in this game.
I am not going to sit here and spit out against the spread trends, I am just going to tell you that this is the game Adrian Peterson busts free.
Peterson carried it 26 times last week against Dallas, and while he was held to under 100 yards, I loved the way Minny stayed committed to the run. That will pay dividends this weekend, as I don't feel New Orleans has the caliber of defense Dallas does, and I see AD breaking a big one or two for the Norsemen.
That will set up the pass for Favre, and even if Harvin is compromised with his recurring migranes, there is still Rice, Berrian, and Shiancoe there to haul in #4's passes.
As for the Saints win last week over the Cardinals, here is my reality of that apparent "get back on track blowout": Arizona had played the previous week in the late Sunday game. They had to go to overtime at home before dispatching Green Bay. The Arizona defense was shredded which goes to show they just weren't that good at stopping anyone anyway. Then, the Cards had to travel to New Orleans to play a rested Saints team. Not only play them, but play them on Saturday in the early game!
Arizona was just out of gas, and the fact they scored on the 1st play from scrimmage on that long run tells me the Saints are VUNERABLE to the run! I take much more respect from the way Minnesota handled Dallas then I do with the way New Orleans handled Arizona.
Minnesota also rates the edge in the kicking department, as Ryan Longwell is having one of the best season's of his long career. That fact only makes get a field goal or so that much more valauble.
Let it be known that I am taking the points with the Vikings as my 2000♦ play, but I also feel the Vikings will win this game outright, so I am putting another 500♦s down on Minnesota on the MONEY LINE.
When the dust clears, it will be the Vikings playing for all the marbles on February 7th!
2000♦ - Minnesota Vikings plus the points
500♦ - Minnesota Vikings on the Money Line
In the AFC Title Game, I have gone back and forth with this pointspread, and after watching and listening to Peyton Manning in his interviews this week, I am not seeing the same Peyton that I normally see. Something is "askew" me thinks, and I also think that this Jets team is the "buzzsaw' that Jeff Saturday talked about in rehashing the Colts playoff failures of the past.
Indianapolis features no real running game to speak of, and we all know about "Revis Island", so you can forget trying to exploit his side of the field!
I am not going to harken back to the teams regular season meeting, as there were just too many variables going on for me to think that that meeting will be a prelude as to what is going to happen on Sunday, but I will say that I have been against the Flyboys the last 2 weeks, and both times they have proved me wrong.
Can they win outright?
Possibly, but with the points I definitely feel they will be inside of this number.
The pressure is ALL on the Colts, and that New York defense is capable of making life tricky for Manning in this game.
I don't see much more than a field goal or 4 points seperating these teams in this game.
Take the Jets plus the points.
500♦ - New York Jets
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
2000* - Minnesota Vikings, 500* - Minnesota MONEY LINE PLAY, 500* - NY Jets Forget the fact the Vikings struggled on the road to end the regular season, NONE of those games were contested in a domed stadium. This one is, and this one is against an opponent they have owned over the years, going 8-1 straight up in the 9 previous meetings.
This one is also being contested in the stadium that Brett Favre won his only Super Bowl in. You kinda feel like the karmic mojo is on the side of the Purple and Gold? I do, and I also feel the Vikings are the better team, thus I am willing to also back them on the MONEY LINE in this game.
I am not going to sit here and spit out against the spread trends, I am just going to tell you that this is the game Adrian Peterson busts free.
Peterson carried it 26 times last week against Dallas, and while he was held to under 100 yards, I loved the way Minny stayed committed to the run. That will pay dividends this weekend, as I don't feel New Orleans has the caliber of defense Dallas does, and I see AD breaking a big one or two for the Norsemen.
That will set up the pass for Favre, and even if Harvin is compromised with his recurring migranes, there is still Rice, Berrian, and Shiancoe there to haul in #4's passes.
As for the Saints win last week over the Cardinals, here is my reality of that apparent "get back on track blowout": Arizona had played the previous week in the late Sunday game. They had to go to overtime at home before dispatching Green Bay. The Arizona defense was shredded which goes to show they just weren't that good at stopping anyone anyway. Then, the Cards had to travel to New Orleans to play a rested Saints team. Not only play them, but play them on Saturday in the early game!
Arizona was just out of gas, and the fact they scored on the 1st play from scrimmage on that long run tells me the Saints are VUNERABLE to the run! I take much more respect from the way Minnesota handled Dallas then I do with the way New Orleans handled Arizona.
Minnesota also rates the edge in the kicking department, as Ryan Longwell is having one of the best season's of his long career. That fact only makes get a field goal or so that much more valauble.
Let it be known that I am taking the points with the Vikings as my 2000♦ play, but I also feel the Vikings will win this game outright, so I am putting another 500♦s down on Minnesota on the MONEY LINE.
When the dust clears, it will be the Vikings playing for all the marbles on February 7th!
2000♦ - Minnesota Vikings plus the points
500♦ - Minnesota Vikings on the Money Line
In the AFC Title Game, I have gone back and forth with this pointspread, and after watching and listening to Peyton Manning in his interviews this week, I am not seeing the same Peyton that I normally see. Something is "askew" me thinks, and I also think that this Jets team is the "buzzsaw' that Jeff Saturday talked about in rehashing the Colts playoff failures of the past.
Indianapolis features no real running game to speak of, and we all know about "Revis Island", so you can forget trying to exploit his side of the field!
I am not going to harken back to the teams regular season meeting, as there were just too many variables going on for me to think that that meeting will be a prelude as to what is going to happen on Sunday, but I will say that I have been against the Flyboys the last 2 weeks, and both times they have proved me wrong.
Can they win outright?
Possibly, but with the points I definitely feel they will be inside of this number.
The pressure is ALL on the Colts, and that New York defense is capable of making life tricky for Manning in this game.
I don't see much more than a field goal or 4 points seperating these teams in this game.
Take the Jets plus the points.
500♦ - New York Jets
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
