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Green Bay (12-6) at Chicago (12-5)
The Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers have faced one another more than any other two teams in NFL history, but never has a matchup between the bitter rivals meant more than this Sunday's showdown in the NFC Championship Game.
The longtime division foes will square off at Chicago's Soldier Field with a Super Bowl berth on the line in only the second-ever postseason encounter in this storied series. The first came all the way back in 1941, when the Bears posted a 33-14 win at Wrigley Field in a Western Division Playoff.
Though the circumstances on Sunday will be far different than usual, these fellow NFC North inhabitants are certainly quite familiar with each other. As they've done in every non-strike year since 1934, the Bears and Packers met two times during the regular season, with the clubs splitting the 2010 home-and- home set.
Chicago rallied past a mistake-laden Packers squad for a 20-17 victory in the Windy City in Week 3, capitalizing on a team-record 18 Green Bay penalties and forcing a pivotal fumble by wide receiver James Jones in the final minutes to set up kicker Robbie Gould's deciding field goal. The Packers got their revenge with a much-needed 10-3 triumph at Lambeau Field in the regular-season finale, a result that earned the Green and Gold a postseason spot as the NFC's final Wild Card entry.
The Packers have followed up that critical win with two highly-impressive road efforts to advance to Sunday's conference title game, besting NFC East champion Philadelphia by a 21-16 count in the Wild Card Round before humbling top-seeded Atlanta in a 48-21 shocker last weekend at the Georgia Dome.
Green Bay used a near-flawless performance from quarterback Aaron Rodgers and its offense to overwhelm the Falcons, piling up 442 total yards and scoring touchdowns on five straight possessions at one point to build a commanding 42-14 lead. The Packers held their own on the other end as well, limiting Atlanta to a mere 194 yards and inducing four turnovers, including a back- breaking 70-yard interception return for a touchdown by cornerback Tramon Williams to close out the first half.
Rodgers completed a crisp 31-of-36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns while also running in a score, becoming the first signal-caller in NFL history to both throw for three touchdowns and record a passer rating of 120 or better in each of his first three postseason starts.
Chicago, which finished a game ahead of the Pack in the NFC North standings to claim the conference's No. 2 seed, also received a big-time showing from its quarterback during the Divisional Round. Jay Cutler's playoff debut was a smashing success, with the sometimes-erratic triggerman accounting for four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) and not committing a turnover to lead the Bears to a 35-24 ousting of surprising Seattle last Sunday.
Repeating that sharp effort could be essential to Chicago's hopes of reaching the Super Bowl for the second time in head coach Lovie Smith's seven-year tenure. Cutler threw two interceptions, the last of which came in Green territory in the closing seconds, in the Week 17 loss at Lambeau, and he's been picked off nine times in four bouts with the Packers since joining the Bears in a trade with Denver prior to the 2009 campaign.
Green Bay will be vying for its first Super Bowl invitation since 1997 and is participating in the NFC Championship for the first time since 2007, when the Pack dropped a gut-wrenching 23-20 overtime decision at home to the New York Giants in what turned out to be Brett Favre's final game with the franchise.
That Giants team stands as the only NFC member to get to the Super Bowl by winning three times on the road in the playoffs, an achievement the Packers can match by prevailing on Sunday. Green Bay is also seeking to join the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers as the only sixth seeds to advance to the Big Game.
The Bears' last NFC Championship appearance came in 2006, when it defeated New Orleans by a 39-14 score at Soldier Field to move on to Super Bowl XLI.
SERIES HISTORY
Chicago and Green Bay have met 181 times previously in the NFL's most-played series, which dates all the way back to the 1921 season, but as previously mentioned, have gone head-to-head only once prior in the playoffs, when George Halas' Bears got the best of Curly Lambeau's Packers in 1941.
The Bears hold a 91-83-6 advantage over Green Bay during the regular season, but the Packers have won three of the last four bouts between the clubs. Green Bay came through with a 21-14 verdict at Soldier Field in 2009, the team's lone win in its last four trips to Chicago.
Smith is 8-6 all-time against the Packers as a head coach, while Green Bay's Mike McCarthy owns a 5-5 career record against both Smith and the Bears. Both Smith and McCarthy sport 3-2 marks in the postseason with their respective teams.
WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL
Rodgers' (546 passing yards, 6 TD, 0 INT in playoffs) terrific play in this year's playoffs has been an extension of the standout quarterback's excellent finish to the regular season, and he'll be entering Sunday's tilt having compiled a 125.0 passer rating and a stellar 22-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over his last nine games. Favre's former understudy has no shortage of capable targets to throw to as well, with the wide receiver quartet of Greg Jennings (9 receptions), Donald Driver (11 receptions, 132 yards), Jones (5 receptions, 2 TD) and Jordy Nelson (8 receptions, 1 TD) all gaining 75 yards or more and combining for 26 catches in last week's rout of Atlanta. Jennings was the group's most dangerous member during the regular season, amassing 1,265 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns while garnering a Pro Bowl citation, but the 35-year-old Driver came up with 14 catches in the two earlier meetings with Chicago and has been Green Bay's most productive player thus far in the postseason. An inconsistent running game that ranked a lackluster 24th (100.4 ypg) in the regular season has gotten a huge boost in the playoffs from rookie James Starks (189 rushing yards), who helped key the win over Philadelphia by churning out 123 rushing yards on 23 carries. The Bears must also be aware of Rodgers' mobility out of the pocket, as his 356 rushing yards were the third- most among league quarterbacks this year.
Expect the Packers to try to attack the Bears through the air using their multiple-receiver sets, since they didn't rush for more than 63 yards in their two battles with a rugged Chicago defense that yielded the second-fewest yards on the ground (90.1 ypg) over the course of the regular season. Linebackers Brian Urlacher (125 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Lance Briggs (89 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) each received Pro Bowl honors as the team's top two stoppers, while havoc-wreaking end Julius Peppers (54 tackles, 8 sacks, 2 INT) has also been a force against the run in addition to maintaining his status as one of the game's premier pass rushers. The offseason acquisition, along with versatile counterpart Israel Idonije (49 tackles, 8 sacks), will be in charge of bringing the heat upon Rodgers, who was sacked only twice in the two previous matchups between these teams, and tackle Tommie Harris (13 tackles, 1.5 sacks) could also help out in that area after the puzzling former Pro Bowler notched two sacks against Seattle last week. Cornerback Charles Tillman (82 tackles, 5 INT, 14 PD) heads up a stout secondary that surrendered only 14 touchdown passes over the 16-game schedule and produced 21 interceptions, with free safety Chris Harris (70 tackles) generating five picks over the final nine weeks. He exited the Seattle win with a hip pointer, but is expected to be available for Sunday's test.
WHEN THE BEARS HAVE THE BALL
Chicago won seven of its final nine regular-season contests, and that second- half surge coincided with a renewed commitment to a running game that had been a non-factor in the early going. The Bears continued to move the ball effectively on the ground in their playoff opener, with the backfield duo of Matt Forte (1069 rushing yards, 51 receptions, 9 total TD) and Chester Taylor (267 rushing yards, 3 TD, 20 receptions) teaming up for 124 yards on 36 carries against the Seahawks and a judicious Cutler (3274 passing yards, 23 TD, 16 INT) adding 43 more and two scores on eight scrambles. Chicago is 10-1 when rushing for over 100 yards this season, though that lone blemish came against the Packers in Week 17, and that approach has also helped to combat Cutler's hit- or-miss tendencies as a passer and a troublesome front line that allowed a league-worst 56 sacks, including six to Green Bay in the finale. Provided he gets ample time to survey his surroundings, Cutler will be looking downfield for playmaking wide receiver Johnny Knox (51 receptions, 5 TD) and talented tight end Greg Olsen (41 receptions, 5 TD), who burned the Seahawks for 113 yards on just three catches last week. He's also got a reliable safety valve in Forte, whose 547 receiving yards placed fourth among NFL backs this year.
Using a smash-mouth philosophy makes sense against the Packers, who led the entire NFL in pass efficiency defense during the regular season while ranking second in both interceptions (24) and sacks (47) as well. A high-caliber secondary features a pair of Pro Bowl selection in veteran cornerback Charles Woodson (12 tackles, 1 sack) and free safety Nick Collins, while Williams (5 tackles, 3 PD) is showing he's worthy of such honors with a sensational postseason in which the undrafted free agent has delivered three interceptions, including a game-sealing pick in the end zone during the Philadelphia win. The pressure will be coming from relentless edge rusher Clay Matthews (7 tackles), a Defensive Player of the Year candidate who racked up 14 sacks prior to the playoffs and has added three more in two postseason games. Fellow outside linebacker Erik Walden (7 tackles, 1 sack) took down Cutler twice in Green Bay's victory over the Bears earlier this month, while nose tackle B.J. Raji (4 tackles, 1 sacks) and end Cullen Jenkins are adept at getting to the quarterback as well. Raji and inside linebacker Desmond Bishop (10 tackles, 1 sack) also serve as two of the top run defenders on a unit that held Atlanta bruiser Michael Turner to a harmless 39 yards on 10 attempts last weekend.
SPECIAL TEAMS
One area in which Chicago owns a clear advantage is in the return game, where the dynamite Devin Hester topped the NFL with a 17.1 average taking back punts and scored three touchdowns, including a 62-yarder against the Packers in the Bears' Week 3 win. The spark-plug receiver also averaged a sizzling 35.6 yards while splitting kickoff duties with Danieal Manning (24.7 avg.), and a suspect Green Bay coverage unit that gave up a 102-yard kick-return score to Atlanta's Eric Weems a week ago would be wise to keep the ball out of Hester's hands.
Chicago kicker Robbie Gould (25-of-30 on field goals) is a reliable veteran with an 85.5 career success rate on field goal attempts, though he hasn't made one longer than 37 yards at Soldier Field this year. Fourteen-year pro Brad Maynard is still an excellent directional punter, though his 40.1 overall average was last in the league.
The remainder of Green Bay's special teams corps has been ordinary as well, with neither Nelson (21.6 avg.) and rookie nickel back Sam Shields (21.5 avg.) making a big impact on kick returns and Williams (8.4 avg.) doing a steady job on punts. Rookie punter Tim Masthay averaged nearly 44 yards per kick and put 25 attempts inside the opponent's 20-yard line in a solid debut, but kicker Mason Crosby (22-of-28 on field goals) has made just 78.1 percent of his career three-point tries and can be an adventure.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Chicago's fortunes for a second Super Bowl trip in five years likely rest on Cutler, who's going to have to play comparably to the red-hot Rodgers for his team to advance. If he's able to reprise last week's sharp showing, there'll be plenty of rejoicing along the shores of Lake Michigan come Sunday night. Green Bay's opportunistic defense is a steep step up in class from that of the shaky Seahawks, however, and Cutler's track record in the series indicates a error- free day may be asking too much. With an edge at the all-important quarterback position, a defense that's on par with Chicago's sturdy outfit, and an innovative play-caller in McCarthy at the controls, there's a lot to like on the Green Bay side. The Bears had their chance to keep the Packers out of the postseason party, a missed opportunity they may soon regret.
Packers 24, Bears 17
N.Y. Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4)
The Pittsburgh Steelers hold membership in a very exclusive club, one they'll be trying to prevent the New York Jets from joining when the two teams get together at Heinz Field for Sunday's AFC Championship.
The Steelers are one of only three organizations, along with New England and Indianapolis, that have represented the AFC in the past seven Super Bowls, having claimed the conference crown under then-head coach Bill Cowher in 2005 and repeating the honor under current sideline boss Mike Tomlin in 2008. Cowher's squad also became the first -- and to date only -- team to advance to the NFL's showcase game as a No. 6 playoff seed, an achievement the battle- tested Jets will be aiming to duplicate when they make their second stop in the Steel City in five weeks.
New York helped earn itself a spot in this year's AFC postseason field with a gritty 22-17 win at Heinz Field on Dec. 19, and its remarkable success on the road under second-year head coach Rex Ryan has carried into the playoffs. The Jets knocked off the defending conference champion Colts in a 17-16 squeaker during the Wild Card Round, then backed up a week's worth of bulletin-board chatter by downing the top-seeded and previously-rolling Patriots by a 28-21 count this past Sunday to reach the AFC title game in back-to-back years for the first time in franchise history.
Young quarterback Mark Sanchez helped the Jets survive by outplaying his more accomplished and heralded counterpart, Tom Brady, while an expertly-devised scheme by Ryan enabled New York's defense to slow down a powerful New England attack that had put up at least 31 points in every game of a string of eight consecutive victories coming into last weekend's showdown.
Sanchez completed 16-of-25 passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover to register his fourth playoff triumph on the road, which ties the sophomore signal-caller with Hall of Famers Len Dawson and Roger Staubach and Baltimore's Joe Flacco for the most by a quarterback in league annals.
Since Ryan took over prior to the 2009 season, the Jets have gone 4-1 on the road in the playoffs and 15-6 overall as the visitor, and are the first team to win twice in enemy venues during the postseason in consecutive years. New York made it to the 2009 AFC Championship as a fifth seed before coming out on the short end of a 30-17 decision to Indianapolis.
Now just one win away from ending a painfully-long 42-year gap between Super Bowl appearances, the Jets will next attempt to take down another conference powerhouse armed with a championship quarterback. The Steelers secured a fourth trip to the conference finals in seven seasons after rallying for a 31-24 verdict over Flacco's Ravens in last week's Divisional Round, getting another stout showing from their own formidable defense and some more late-game magic from triggerman Ben Roethlisberger to prevail.
Roethlisberger threw a pair of third-quarter touchdown passes to help Pittsburgh battle back from a 21-7 halftime deficit, then connected on a clutch 58-yard strike to rookie receiver Antonio Brown with two minutes left to set up the deciding touchdown.
The defense played an instrumental role in the comeback as well, forcing three Baltimore turnovers in the tide-turning third quarter and limiting its AFC North rivals to a minuscule 28 yards in the second half.
Pittsburgh yielded a league-low 14.5 points per game during the regular season and also topped the NFL in rushing defense (62.8 ypg), though the Jets did manage 106 yards on the ground in their Week 15 ousting of the Black and Gold. The Steelers were without difference-making safety Troy Polamalu in that contest, however, due to a strained Achilles tendon.
Polamalu will be present for Sunday's rematch, and the Steelers will also have tight end Heath Miller back after sitting out the previous meeting between the teams with a concussion.
Jets return man Brad Smith, who took back the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown in the earlier matchup, is tentatively expected to play this week after missing the New England game with a strained groin.
SERIES HISTORY
New York's above-noted Week 15 win over the Steelers stands as its only positive result in eight lifetime visits to Pittsburgh. That includes the lone postseason encounter between the foes, a 2004 AFC Divisional Playoff at Heinz Field in which the Steelers came through with a 20-17 victory.
Pittsburgh has dominated the all-time regular-season series with the Jets, emerging triumphant in 15 of 19 non-playoff matchups. New York has taken the two most recent bouts, however, having posted a 19-16 overtime decision at the Meadowlands in 2007 in addition to last month's breakthrough.
Tomlin sports a career 4-1 playoff record but has lost his two lifetime meetings with the Jets. Ryan is also 4-1 in the postseason as a head coach and won his only head-to-head clash with Tomlin and the Steelers back in December.
WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL
New York's general philosophy on offense is to pound the ball behind a top- notch line anchored by a pair of Pro Bowl selections in center Nick Mangold and left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson. The Jets ranked second in rushing attempts (534) and averaged a healthy 148.4 yards per game on the ground (4th overall) during the regular season, with still-capable veteran LaDainian Tomlinson (125 rushing yards, 2 TD, 6 receptions in playoffs) and physical second-year pro Shonn Greene (146 rushing yards, 1 TD) both effective working behind the strong front wall. The pair managed a pedestrian 89 yards on 23 attempts against Pittsburgh's sturdy front seven last month, however, meaning Sanchez (383 passing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) is going to have to make plays for the Jets to move on. The poised 24-year-old did just that against the Patriots, finding Tomlinson as well as wideouts Braylon Edwards (6 receptions, 1 TD) and Santonio Holmes (7 receptions, 1 TD) for red-zone scores that helped trigger last week's upset. No. 3 receiver Jerricho Cotchery (7 receptions) was also a factor, with the almost-forgotten veteran recording team-bests of five catches and 96 yards in the New England game, while Edwards came up with season-highs of eight grabs and 100 yards in the Week 15 win over Pittsburgh. Holmes, an ex-Steeler dealt to the Jets back in April, owns four touchdown catches in six career playoff outings and was the MVP of Pittsburgh's victory in Super Bowl XLIII.
The Steelers excelled on defense throughout the regular season and brought their 'A' game into their playoff opener as well, holding Baltimore to a scant 126 total yards and producing three takeaways that were vital to the team's comeback. Free safety Ryan Clark (90 tackles, 2 INT) had a forced fumble and an interception to lead the charge, and he and the playmaking Polamalu (63 tackles, 1 sack, 7 INT) are the stabilizers of a secondary that's surrendered a mere 128.8 net passing yards over Pittsburgh's last five games. The backfield is aided by a potent pass rush that amassed a league-leading 48 sacks prior to the postseason and added six more against the Ravens last week. Outside linebacker James Harrison (100 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 2 INT) had three of the club's takedowns of Flacco, while counterpart LaMarr Woodley (50 tackles, 10 sacks, 2 INT) owns an eye-popping nine sacks in five career playoff tests. Second-year end Ziggy Hood (20 tackles, 3 sacks), who continues to fill in for injured mainstay Aaron Smith, has also been a factor of late, having delivered a sack in three straight games and contributing to the NFL's best run-stuffing unit. Smith will sit out once again as he recovers from a torn triceps, while starting cornerback Bryant McFadden (81 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INT) is questionable after exiting last weekend's win with an abdominal strain.
WHEN THE STEELERS HAVE THE BALL
Pittsburgh's in good hands at the all-important quarterback position, where Roethlisberger (3200 passing yards, 17 TD, 5 INT) boasts a 9-2 career record as a starter in the playoffs and enters Sunday's tilt on a personal-best streak of 190 consecutive pass attempts without being intercepted. The two-time Super Bowl winner has a couple of quality complements on a well-balanced Steeler offense in game-breaking wide receiver Mike Wallace (60 receptions, 1257 yards, 10 TD) and running back Rashard Mendenhall (1273 rushing yards, 13 TD, 23 receptions), who powered his way to 99 yards and a touchdown on just 17 carries against the Jets last month. The dangerous Wallace had 102 receiving yards on seven catches in that game and averaged 21 yards per reception during the regular season, the best mark in the AFC. Rookie Emmanuel Sanders added season highs of seven grabs and 78 yards in the first meeting with New York, and the 23-year-old's late-year emergence has provided Roethlisberger with another solid weapon to a receiving corps that also contains venerable veteran Ward (59 receptions, 5 TD) and Miller (42 receptions, 2 TD). Protecting the quarterback has been an issue at times, as the Steelers permitted 43 sacks over the 16-game schedule and five more in last week's bout with the Ravens.
After keeping Peyton Manning in check by dropping extra men in coverage in the Wild Card Round, the Jets were able to frustrate the normally in-control Brady by blanketing his primary targets and forcing the star quarterback to either check down or alter his decision-making process. New York generated five sacks, including a pair by longtime end Shaun Ellis (6 tackles, 2 sacks), primarily due to the work of All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis (7 tackles) and fellow defensive backs Antonio Cromartie (3 tackles) and Drew Coleman (6 tackles, 1 sack). Expect Revis, a Pittsburgh native and one of the game's premier shutdown cover men, to spend a lot of time shadowing Wallace on Sunday in an attempt to neutralize Pittsburgh's best offensive threat. The Jets can hold their own against opposing ground attacks as well, finishing third in the league versus the run (90.9 ypg) and allowing only 3.6 yards per rush attempt in the regular season. Inside linebackers David Harris (21 tackles, 1 INT) and Bart Scott (5 tackles) possess both outstanding range and instincts as the team's top two tacklers, and the duo gets ample support from a pair of grinders up front in nose tackle Sione Pouha (8 tackles, 1 sack) and end Mike Devito (7 tackles).
SPECIAL TEAMS
This area was crucial to the outcome of these teams' first meeting, with Brad Smith putting the Steelers in an early hole by taking the initial kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown. It was one of two such scores on the year for the ex- college quarterback, who finished second in the NFL in kick return average (28.6 avg.) and could be a key player again if he's active on Sunday.
The Jets also have an impact punter in Steve Weatherford (42.6 avg.), who topped the league in kicks place inside both the 20-yard line (42) and 10-yard line (20), noteworthy numbers in a game where field position could be a factor. Kicker Nick Folk was a shaky 30-of-39 on field goal attempts prior to the playoffs and missed a 30-yard try against the Patriots, but did knock home a 32-yarder on the final play in the win over Indianapolis. Cotchery averaged a decent nine yards on punt returns after replacing the injured Jim Leonhard in early December.
Pittsburgh kicker Shaun Suisham did a fine job after supplanting struggling predecessor Jeff Reed at midseason, converting 14-of-15 three-point kicks and going 8-of-9 from beyond 40 yards. The Steelers also made a change at punter during the year, with boomer Daniel Sepulveda (45.5 avg.) sustaining a torn ACL in December and journeyman Jeremy Kapinos filling in. The one-time Jets averaged a modest 41.1 yards per kick, but did sent five of his 14 attempts within the opponent's 20. Brown (23.4 avg.) had a touchdown as the Steelers' main kick returner early in the season, but the rookie averaged a lackluster 6.1 yards on punt runbacks.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
A strong argument could be made that the Steelers were the better team despite their end result to the Jets last month, as Tomlin's troops outgained Ryan's charges by over 100 yards (377-276) and were done in by a kick return touchdown and a safety. Then again, many believed New York was up against it in each of its two previous playoff games, but still managed to survive because of excellent game-planning as well as sheer determination. The Jets do seem to have important advantages both in the trenches, where Pittsburgh's offensive line has been a crutch at times and New York's blocking group handled the Steelers' fierce front seven as well as any team this season, and in special teams. But most importantly, Ryan has this team believing it can win. With a tremendous defense and a proven big-game quarterback in Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh's not going to make it easy. However, the Jets do seem to match up well here and have been able to meet similarly daunting challenges in the recent past, and there's no reason to believe they can't do so again.
Jets 27, Steelers 24
