THE GOLD SHEET
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
GREEN BAY (12-6) at CHICAGO (12-5)
Green Bay 23 - CHICAGO 16
One thing is virtually certain in this game—
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers will not have a repeat of the spinning, uncannilyaccurate,
31-of-36 passing day that he had in the climate-controlled confines of
the Georgia Dome last week. This week, it’s outdoors in January on what is left
of the turf at Soldier Field. And, like so many Bears-Packers games before it,
this one is likely to entail a battle of wills and a battle against the elements. Each
team is familiar with such struggles, with G.B. having a corps of veterans who
fought through its freezing 2007 title game loss vs. the NYG at Lambeau, and
Chicago having a veteran nucleus that helped lead its team to the Super
Bowl against Indy the season before. And, the pointspread has been
stretched a bit because of Green Bay’s impressive road wins the past two
weeks at Philly and Atlanta.
In their two meetings this season, Chicago (+3) won 20-17 in Week Three at
home when the Packers committed a team-record 18 penalties and challenged
homerun threat Devin Hester, who had a key 62-yard, fourth-Q, punt return TD.
Then, in the final week of the regular season, G.B. (needing a win to make the
playoffs) edged the Bears (+11) 10-3 at chilly Lambeau, with Chicago HC Lovie
Smith playing his starters despite having the No. 2 NFC seed locked up (but also
in the hope of preventing this NFC North rubber match for the conference title).
But ever since Lovie arrived in Chicago, a top priority has been to beat rival G.B.,
which he has done 8 of 14 times (7-6-1 vs. the spread).
However, since the talented Rodgers has taken over for Brett Favre, the
Packers are 4-2 SU and vs. the spread vs. the Bears, with all six meetings going
under, and with the final margins being 34, 3, 6, 7, 3 and 7. The four Packer wins
were by more than 3. Moreover, the progress of both G.B. & Chicago TY show
that NFL teams are usually works in progress, and not finished products. The
emergence of rookie RB James Starks (48 for 189 YR in playoffs) has enervated
the Packer ground game that had struggled since the loss of Ryan Grant in
Week Two. Meanwhile, a successfully-shuffled OL and re-commitment to the
run after the October 31 “bye” week have rescued Chicago’s offense from the
sack-prone outfit it was in the Bears’ 4-3 start.
The Packers, with a dozen contributors lost on defense TY, have steadied
with the emergence of the likes of CB Tramon Williams, DT-DE B.J. Raji, and the
addition of 365-pound run stuffer Howard Green. The season ended with G.B.
No. 5 in yards allowed; No. 2 in points allowed. The Chicago defense is No. 9
in yards; No. 4 in scoring; No. 2 vs. the run. But, in close games, the QB is
usually the difference. And that points to Rodgers, now 2-1 as a playoff starter.
In two games vs. the Bears TY, he hit 73% with 2 TDs, 2 ints., and 2 sacks.
Chicago’s now-steadied Jay Cutler, 1-0 in the postseason, was 56%, with 1 TD,
3 ints., and 9 sacks. Adding in HC Mike McCarthy’s resourceful offensive design
and playcalling, it appears to be a case of edge Green Bay, well familiar with an
old foe and January conditions.
(10-CHI. 20-G. Bay 17...G.21-18 C.18/77 G.15/63 G.34/45/1/316 C.16/27/1/199 C.0 G.1)
(10-G. BAY 10-Chi. 3...G.14-13 C.20/110 G.23/60 G.19/28/1/224 C.21/39/2/117 G.1 C.0)
(09-G. BAY 21-Chi. 15...C.18-12 C.31/86 G.22/76 C.17/36/4/266 G.17/28/0/150 G.0 C.0)
(09-G. Bay 21-CHI. 14...G.16-14 G.31/146 C.17/59 C.23/36/2/195 G.16/24/0/169 G.2 C.0)
(10-CHI. +3 20-17, G. BAY -11 10-3; 09-G. BAY -4' 21-15, G. Bay -4 21-14...SR: Chi. 92-83-6)
NEW YORK JETS (13-5) at PITTSBURGH (13-4)
NY Jets 22 - PITTSBURGH 19
When rematches occur in the playoffs, the
dynamics are rarely the same as they were when the combatants faced off in the
regular season. That’s certainly the case on the NFC side, where Green Bay’s
motivation was far different from Chicago’s when they last faced off in the
regular-season finale. As so they are for the Jets and Steelers, who battled not long
ago (December 19) at Heinz Field. New York was in must-win mode that day,
needing a victory to revive playoff hopes that seemed to be slipping away in its two
previous games, defeats against the Patriots and Dolphins when the Jets scored
nary a TD. Though not in a throw-away game situation as the Bears would be
against the Packers two weeks later, there was not similar urgency attached to that
Dec. 19 meeting for the Steelers, who were likely to at least sew up a postseason
berth no matter what happened against the Jets. But, despite the differences
between the contexts in which that game was competed, and this conference title
tilt, a quick revisit of that December 19 matchup is nonetheless in order.
The tone of the game was set on the opening kickoff, which the Jets’ Brad
Smith returned 97 yards for a TD. As has often been the case since HC Rex
Ryan took the New York job last season, elements other than the Jets’ offense
would make crucial plays throughout the day, including a late safety when Jets
LB Jason Taylor tackled Steeler RB Mewelde Moore in the end zone, pushing
the lead to 22-17. Illustrating the special teams highlights, NY punter Steve
Weatherford had set the stage for the safety when deftly putting his preceding
punt out of bounds at the 3. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger, later needing a
TD instead of a field goal in his subsequent final drive, engineered one of his
patented last-minute marches to the Jets’ 10-yard line, but Ryan’s defense held.
Although the defense and special teams made big plays, NY QB Mark Sanchez
contributed with an error-free game, which was hardly a given heading into the
contest after suffering a combined four picks and five fumbles in his previous two
outings, briefly prompting Ryan to consider benching him. Although not
dominant, the Jets also managed enough of an infantry diversion (106 yards, the
most allowed by the Steelers’ top-ranked rush defense all season) to take some
heat off Sanchez and the passing game. Roethlisberger did not have a great
day, completing 23 of 44 passes while enduring three sacks. Importantly,
Pittsburgh was minus defensive playmaker Troy Polamalu (nursing an Achilles
tendon injury) that day in what was to be New York’s first-ever win in Pittsburgh
after 7 losses at old Three Rivers Stadium and Heinz.
The availability of Polamalu alone creates a different set of dynamics for the
rematch, but other elements suggest the Jets can succeed again. Their own bigplay
defense has now had nearly two months to adjust to the loss of their on-field
leader, S Jim Leonhard, with playoff road wins over Peyton Manning and Tom
Brady indicating that proper adjustments have been made. Sanchez has
continued his mistake-free form into the postseason, tossing only one playoff
pick (and none last week vs. Bill Belichick’s defense). Importantly, the Jets are
going to have to be able to establish something with Shonn Greene and
LaDainian Tomlinson on the ground (as they did at Indy and New England), and
their previous encounter vs. the Steelers suggests they can do just enough.
Granted, Big Ben remains the great equalizer, and his weaponry has a sharper
edge with 2nd-year WR Mike Wallace now a big-play threat. But the now-careful
Sanchez is unlikely to gift the Steelers any scores as did Joe Flacco and the
Ravens last week. And after winning at Pittsburgh, Indy, and Foxborough in a
28-day span, NY has ultimate confidence in its preferred road playoff role (in
which it is now 4-1 the past two seasons!).
(10-Jets 22-PITT 17...P.25-17 P.25/147 N.27/106 P.23/44/0/231 N.19/29/0/170 N.0 P.0)
(10-NY Jets +5 22-17...SR: Pittsburgh 16-4)
NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
GREEN BAY (12-6) at CHICAGO (12-5)
Green Bay 23 - CHICAGO 16
One thing is virtually certain in this game—
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers will not have a repeat of the spinning, uncannilyaccurate,
31-of-36 passing day that he had in the climate-controlled confines of
the Georgia Dome last week. This week, it’s outdoors in January on what is left
of the turf at Soldier Field. And, like so many Bears-Packers games before it,
this one is likely to entail a battle of wills and a battle against the elements. Each
team is familiar with such struggles, with G.B. having a corps of veterans who
fought through its freezing 2007 title game loss vs. the NYG at Lambeau, and
Chicago having a veteran nucleus that helped lead its team to the Super
Bowl against Indy the season before. And, the pointspread has been
stretched a bit because of Green Bay’s impressive road wins the past two
weeks at Philly and Atlanta.
In their two meetings this season, Chicago (+3) won 20-17 in Week Three at
home when the Packers committed a team-record 18 penalties and challenged
homerun threat Devin Hester, who had a key 62-yard, fourth-Q, punt return TD.
Then, in the final week of the regular season, G.B. (needing a win to make the
playoffs) edged the Bears (+11) 10-3 at chilly Lambeau, with Chicago HC Lovie
Smith playing his starters despite having the No. 2 NFC seed locked up (but also
in the hope of preventing this NFC North rubber match for the conference title).
But ever since Lovie arrived in Chicago, a top priority has been to beat rival G.B.,
which he has done 8 of 14 times (7-6-1 vs. the spread).
However, since the talented Rodgers has taken over for Brett Favre, the
Packers are 4-2 SU and vs. the spread vs. the Bears, with all six meetings going
under, and with the final margins being 34, 3, 6, 7, 3 and 7. The four Packer wins
were by more than 3. Moreover, the progress of both G.B. & Chicago TY show
that NFL teams are usually works in progress, and not finished products. The
emergence of rookie RB James Starks (48 for 189 YR in playoffs) has enervated
the Packer ground game that had struggled since the loss of Ryan Grant in
Week Two. Meanwhile, a successfully-shuffled OL and re-commitment to the
run after the October 31 “bye” week have rescued Chicago’s offense from the
sack-prone outfit it was in the Bears’ 4-3 start.
The Packers, with a dozen contributors lost on defense TY, have steadied
with the emergence of the likes of CB Tramon Williams, DT-DE B.J. Raji, and the
addition of 365-pound run stuffer Howard Green. The season ended with G.B.
No. 5 in yards allowed; No. 2 in points allowed. The Chicago defense is No. 9
in yards; No. 4 in scoring; No. 2 vs. the run. But, in close games, the QB is
usually the difference. And that points to Rodgers, now 2-1 as a playoff starter.
In two games vs. the Bears TY, he hit 73% with 2 TDs, 2 ints., and 2 sacks.
Chicago’s now-steadied Jay Cutler, 1-0 in the postseason, was 56%, with 1 TD,
3 ints., and 9 sacks. Adding in HC Mike McCarthy’s resourceful offensive design
and playcalling, it appears to be a case of edge Green Bay, well familiar with an
old foe and January conditions.
(10-CHI. 20-G. Bay 17...G.21-18 C.18/77 G.15/63 G.34/45/1/316 C.16/27/1/199 C.0 G.1)
(10-G. BAY 10-Chi. 3...G.14-13 C.20/110 G.23/60 G.19/28/1/224 C.21/39/2/117 G.1 C.0)
(09-G. BAY 21-Chi. 15...C.18-12 C.31/86 G.22/76 C.17/36/4/266 G.17/28/0/150 G.0 C.0)
(09-G. Bay 21-CHI. 14...G.16-14 G.31/146 C.17/59 C.23/36/2/195 G.16/24/0/169 G.2 C.0)
(10-CHI. +3 20-17, G. BAY -11 10-3; 09-G. BAY -4' 21-15, G. Bay -4 21-14...SR: Chi. 92-83-6)
NEW YORK JETS (13-5) at PITTSBURGH (13-4)
NY Jets 22 - PITTSBURGH 19
When rematches occur in the playoffs, the
dynamics are rarely the same as they were when the combatants faced off in the
regular season. That’s certainly the case on the NFC side, where Green Bay’s
motivation was far different from Chicago’s when they last faced off in the
regular-season finale. As so they are for the Jets and Steelers, who battled not long
ago (December 19) at Heinz Field. New York was in must-win mode that day,
needing a victory to revive playoff hopes that seemed to be slipping away in its two
previous games, defeats against the Patriots and Dolphins when the Jets scored
nary a TD. Though not in a throw-away game situation as the Bears would be
against the Packers two weeks later, there was not similar urgency attached to that
Dec. 19 meeting for the Steelers, who were likely to at least sew up a postseason
berth no matter what happened against the Jets. But, despite the differences
between the contexts in which that game was competed, and this conference title
tilt, a quick revisit of that December 19 matchup is nonetheless in order.
The tone of the game was set on the opening kickoff, which the Jets’ Brad
Smith returned 97 yards for a TD. As has often been the case since HC Rex
Ryan took the New York job last season, elements other than the Jets’ offense
would make crucial plays throughout the day, including a late safety when Jets
LB Jason Taylor tackled Steeler RB Mewelde Moore in the end zone, pushing
the lead to 22-17. Illustrating the special teams highlights, NY punter Steve
Weatherford had set the stage for the safety when deftly putting his preceding
punt out of bounds at the 3. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger, later needing a
TD instead of a field goal in his subsequent final drive, engineered one of his
patented last-minute marches to the Jets’ 10-yard line, but Ryan’s defense held.
Although the defense and special teams made big plays, NY QB Mark Sanchez
contributed with an error-free game, which was hardly a given heading into the
contest after suffering a combined four picks and five fumbles in his previous two
outings, briefly prompting Ryan to consider benching him. Although not
dominant, the Jets also managed enough of an infantry diversion (106 yards, the
most allowed by the Steelers’ top-ranked rush defense all season) to take some
heat off Sanchez and the passing game. Roethlisberger did not have a great
day, completing 23 of 44 passes while enduring three sacks. Importantly,
Pittsburgh was minus defensive playmaker Troy Polamalu (nursing an Achilles
tendon injury) that day in what was to be New York’s first-ever win in Pittsburgh
after 7 losses at old Three Rivers Stadium and Heinz.
The availability of Polamalu alone creates a different set of dynamics for the
rematch, but other elements suggest the Jets can succeed again. Their own bigplay
defense has now had nearly two months to adjust to the loss of their on-field
leader, S Jim Leonhard, with playoff road wins over Peyton Manning and Tom
Brady indicating that proper adjustments have been made. Sanchez has
continued his mistake-free form into the postseason, tossing only one playoff
pick (and none last week vs. Bill Belichick’s defense). Importantly, the Jets are
going to have to be able to establish something with Shonn Greene and
LaDainian Tomlinson on the ground (as they did at Indy and New England), and
their previous encounter vs. the Steelers suggests they can do just enough.
Granted, Big Ben remains the great equalizer, and his weaponry has a sharper
edge with 2nd-year WR Mike Wallace now a big-play threat. But the now-careful
Sanchez is unlikely to gift the Steelers any scores as did Joe Flacco and the
Ravens last week. And after winning at Pittsburgh, Indy, and Foxborough in a
28-day span, NY has ultimate confidence in its preferred road playoff role (in
which it is now 4-1 the past two seasons!).
(10-Jets 22-PITT 17...P.25-17 P.25/147 N.27/106 P.23/44/0/231 N.19/29/0/170 N.0 P.0)
(10-NY Jets +5 22-17...SR: Pittsburgh 16-4)
