Cajun-Sports Executive- Sunday
NFL Playoffs: 7-3 ATS (Documented by TSM of Okla)
SUNDAY 01/18/2009 - 3:00 PM EST
NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP (FOX)
4 STAR SELECTION
ARIZONA +3½ over Philadelphia
Two teams that nobody foresaw being in the NFC title game a few weeks ago will meet up to decide who gets to play in the Super Bowl.
After producing a pedestrian 9-7 record built primarily upon beating up on the patsies of the NFC West, the Cardinals have surprised many during this post-season, especially with a 33-13 win at Carolina in last weekend's NFC Divisional Playoffs. A resurgent Arizona defense forced six turnovers and held the second-seeded Panthers to 269 total yards in the breakthrough victory, which placed the Cardinals in the NFC Championship for the first time since the 1970 merger.
Miscues also played a large role in the most recent meeting between Arizona and Eagles. The Cardinals committed four turnovers in a humbling 48-20 loss at Philadelphia on Thanksgiving night, a game which helped turn around an Eagles' season that had been teetering on the brink of disaster.
That triumph kicked off a stretch of four wins over the final five regular-season games for Philadelphia, which snuck into the postseason with a 9-6-1 record after both Tampa Bay and Chicago were upset on the last weekend of the regular season.
The Eagles took full advantage of their gifts, posting road victories over Minnesota and the defending world champion New York Giants to became the first team ever to advance to the NFC Championship as a #6 seed.
Philadelphia is no stranger to the NFC Championship Game, having now made it here five times over the last eight seasons under head coach Andy Reid. The Eagles have lost three of those previous four title tilts, including a 29-24 defeat on the road in the 2001 NFC Championship to Kurt Warner and the St. Louis Rams.
Warner and his new team, the Cardinals, have been stout at home, where they have won 7 times in 9 outings this year and is 13-4 in head coach Ken Whisenhunt's two-year tenure in the desert.
Philadelphia’s quarterback Donovan McNabb will be making his 15th career playoff start on Sunday and directs an offense that is averaging 250 passing yards per game this postseason. Rookie DeSean Jackson is the big-play threat among a solid group of wide receivers that also includes steady sixth-year pro Kevin Curtis and emerging slot man Jason Avant.
Other than turning a screen pass into a long TD, running back Brian Westbrook has been bottled up during the playoffs, having averaged a meager 1.9 yards per attempt against the two strong run defenses of the Vikings and Giants. Westbrook's lackluster numbers could also be the effect of a knee injury that has hampered him throughout the season.
Although the Cardinals ranked only 22nd in pass defense and surrendered a league-worst 36 touchdowns through the air in the regular season, the unit has tightened up that problem area during the playoffs. Arizona has allowed only 384 passing yards in its two postseason wins and garnered a whopping seven interceptions. Rookie cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie held All-Pro receiver Steve Smith squarely in check in the win, and has quickly developed into a dangerous ball-hawk, as he's picked off six passes over the last nine games. Ends Bertrand Berry and Antonio Smith have been putting the heat on enemy quarterbacks lately, with the duo amassing four of the Cards' five sacks in the playoffs.
Arizona has also been awfully stingy against the run during its recent surge. The defense has faced two of the NFL's elite backs in Atlanta's Michael Turner and Carolina's DeAngelo Williams in consecutive weeks, and limited the pair to a combined 105 yards on 30 carries.
Sunday's showdown will pit a star-studded Arizona aerial assault that averaged an impressive 292 yards per game during the regular season against Philadelphia's third-ranked pass defense. Although the Eagles got the better of the Cards back in Week 13, Warner still managed to throw for 235 yards and three touchdowns, with premier wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald on the end of two of those scoring tosses. Fitzgerald has further stepped up his play so far in the postseason, as the first-team All-Pro torched the Falcons and Panthers for 101 and 166 yards, respectively, and caught a touchdown pass in both games. Arizona's pass-happy offense got by just fine in the Carolina game without its other top-shelf wideout, Anquan Boldin, and will be even tougher to defend as the rugged receiver is expected to shake off a hamstring strain that sidelined him last week and be ready to go against Philly.
The Eagles were a tough team to throw on prior to the playoffs, and have been an even greater challenge for opposing signal-callers in their two postseason games. Over those outings, Philadelphia has yielded a mere 322 net passing yards, zero touchdowns, and a completion rate of 47 percent; however, it must be noted that they were facing the Vikings’ poor-passing QB Tavaris Jackson and Eli Manning who seemingly never plays well at home in poor weather. In ideal conditions at home, Warner should give Philadelphia a much better test than they’ve faced the past 2 weeks.
Arizona's passing prowess has been complemented nicely as of late by a capable running game that was non-existent for most of this season. The Cardinals averaged an NFL-worst 74 rushing yards per week heading into the postseason, but have recorded a respectable 115.5 yards per game in its two playoff wins. Whisenhunt has split the load between veteran Edgerrin James and rookie Tim Hightower, with the tandem combining for 133 yards against the Panthers last week.
Whether the Cardinals can keep up their recent proficiency on the ground remains to be seen, since Philadelphia boasts the NFL's fourth-rated rushing defense. Arizona mustered just 25 rushing yards in the Thanksgiving matchup, although the team abandoned the running game early on after being faced with a substantial deficit. We expect a much different game this time around.
Given the ease in which the Eagles handled the Cardinals earlier this season in a Thanksgiving game, the public is expecting something of a repeat. It's more than likely, however, that Philadelphia will have a considerably harder time this week against a Cardinals club that should be buoyed by playing at home and a renewed sense of confidence from a most impressive win its last time out. Having Warner and his 7-2 lifetime record in the playoffs won’t hurt, either, and the two-time league MVP will present a sterner test than Minnesota's Tarvaris Jackson or a frazzled Eli Manning gave the Eagles over their past two games.
Philadelphia RB Brian Westbrook admitted that he aggravated his sore left knee in Sunday's playoff win over the Giants. He is experiencing more swelling than usual this week and hasn’t practiced much, if at all. He is expected to play, but Arizona should have a much easier time keeping the Eagles offense in check with Westbrook ailing.
One of our handicapping strategies is to play AGAINST a team that is over-valued by the pointspread according to the home/road dichotomy. We test the accuracy of a line by switching the home and away teams and giving the new “visitor” 6 points for the switch of home field advantage. If the new, hypothetical line would obviously be off of what it would be in reality, the public is most likely over-reacting to recent form of one or both teams. When these teams met in late November, Philly was a 3-point home favorite. That means the teams were considered equal on a neutral field, or the Cardinals should be favored by 3 at home; however, here, we have the Eagles a 4-point road favorite, meaning the line is 7 points off what it was before. Another way of looking at it, is that if the Eagles are favored by 4 AT Arizona, they would be favored by TEN points at home vs. the Cards. In our estimation, these numbers expose where the line value is, which is a result of that Thanksgiving game.
The Cardinals are attaching little significance to that contest. They had plenty of excuses not to play well, and they took themselves up on each one. They were coming off a difficult loss to the Giants the Sunday before, then had to fly across country on Wednesday, with little preparation, for an opponent they didn't know a lot about.
In addition, they had the NFC West nearly clinched, needing just one victory in their last five games. So when things turned ugly early in that game, they stayed that way.
The Cardinals believe they are a different team now, and they sure look like one. They limped into the playoffs but have been impressive in victories over Atlanta and Carolina. They are underdogs again vs. Philadelphia, and it's a role they relish.
We have a couple of NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEMS that demonstrate why Arizona is actually in pretty good shape here to exact some revenge. The first one states:
Play ON a Playoff team seeking same-season revenge for a non-Sunday DAY SU loss & ATS loss of more than 10 points vs. an opponent not off a home SU & ATS win as a favorite of 3+ points.
Such teams have not suffered a spread loss since at least 1980, and perhaps longer, as they are 9-0-2 ATS, beating the spread by nearly 13 ppg on average.
Even playoff teams seeking revenge for a loss in which their defense played poorly have been greatly under-valued. This is confirmed by another POWER SYSTEM of ours that reads:
Play ON a Playoff team seeking revenge for a SU loss (not an ATS win of 1+ points or ATS loss of 30+ points) allowing 30+ points in the last matchup within the past 2 regular seasons and not off a division underdog SU win vs. an opponent not off a home SU win as a favorite of less than 7 points.
These teams are now an amazing 22-0-1 ATS just 1996, beating the spread by more than 11 ppg on average.
We also note that Arizona is 5-0 ATS as a home underdog/pick ‘em from Week 13 on vs. opponents off 2+ SU wins, and a super 12-0 SU at home vs. opponents off an underdog SU win of 4+ points.
Meanwhile, it’s the Eagles whose play may suffer here, as after knocking the league champions out of the playoffs, teams have been unable to refocus for their next playoff opponent. Specifically:
Play AGAINST a Playoff team (not an underdog of 14+ points) off a Wildcard/Semi-Final SU win against the defending Super Bowl Champions in its last game.
This POWER SYSTEM is 9-0 SU & ATS since 1984, beating the spread by more than a dozen points per game on average.
Ultimately, we expect these under-valued home underdogs to continue their terrific play of late and give Philadelphia everything they can handle. With the pointspread moving from +3 to +3½ or +4, we’re afforded additional line value, as even an Arizona loss by a FG will still be a spread winner, although we like the Cardinals to be the team that pulls it out by 3, perhaps in overtime.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: ARIZONA 26 PHILADELPHIA 23 (OT)
6:30 PM EST
AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP (CBS)
3 STAR SELECTION
Baltimore +6 over PITTSBURGH
It will be yet another duel between the Steelers and Ravens for a trip to the Super Bowl in 2 weeks.
Pittsburgh and Baltimore both have well-earned, long-established reputations as two of the most physical teams in the league, and as AFC North foes, this game figures to be a hard-fought blood bath.
The Steelers have already beaten the Ravens twice this season, but it wasn’t easy in either case. In Week 4 at Heinz Field, the Steelers erased a 10-point Baltimore halftime lead to come away a 23-20 overtime winner. In the return matchup in Baltimore in Week 15, Pittsburgh scored the game's only TD on a controversial pass play from Ben Roethlisberger to Santonio Holmes in the final minute, a score that gave the Steelers a 13-9 victory and wrapped up their second straight AFC North title. Replays seemed to show that Holmes was not in full possession of the football when it crossed the goal line, but after viewing the replay, referee Walt Coleman reversed the original call and ruled the play a TD.
The Steelers defeated the Chargers, 35-24, last Sunday, and are looking to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since their win over the Seahawks following the 2005 season. To get there, Pittsburgh will have to erase a three-game losing streak in AFC Championships played at home. The Black and Gold, who lost at home in the 2004 and 2001 AFC Championships to New England, and in the 1997 AFC Championship to Denver, last advanced to the Super Bowl with a win on its own turf following the 1995 season.
Baltimore, meanwhile, is attempting to become the third team in the last four years to advance to the Super Bowl thanks to three consecutive playoff wins on the road. The 2005 Steelers and 2007 Giants both won Super Bowls despite never playing in their home stadiums during the postseason. If they win their next two games, the Ravens will become the fourth consecutive team to win the Super Bowl despite not having the privilege of a first-round playoff bye.
The Ravens won the Super Bowl in Tampa Bay after the 2000 season, and now have a chance to return to that site for another Super Bowl. The Ravens have defeated Miami and Tennessee, the #1 seed to get here.
The Ravens were outgained in total yards by the Titans last week, were outpaced by a large margin through the air and on the ground, and still managed to come up with enough offense to beat Tennessee. Quarterback Joe Flacco made three gigantic plays to help Baltimore’s efforts. Flacco doesn’t look like he was playing for the Delaware Blue Hens a year ago, but became the first rookie quarterback to win his first two playoff starts.
The Baltimore running game, which has carried the team for large portions of this season, will have to complement the passing attack after being borderline invisible last week. The Ravens made their 30 carries count for just 50 yards. Bruiser Le'Ron McClain has had decent success against the Steelers this year, carrying 39 times for 150 yards and a touchdown in two games. Willis McGahee and a healthy Ray Rice figure to garner some carries as well on Sunday.
The Steelers second-ranked run defense allowed Chargers back Darren Sproles to amass just 15 yards on 11 rush attempts last week, but don’t figure to have as much success on McClain and company this time around.
Meanwhile, a unit that led the NFL in passing defense and was second in sacks during the regular campaign will seek to apply heat on Flacco. In addition to their strength against the run and pass, the Steelers led the NFL in regular season total defense and scoring defense.
Willie Parker shook off what had largely been a frustrating, injury-laden season in the victory over the Chargers, carrying 27 times for a season-high 146 yards with two touchdowns to keep the pressure off of Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh passing game. Parker is not likely to find the running lanes quite so open this week, as the Steelers ranked a distant 23rd in NFL rushing offense and 29th in yards per carry during the regular season, and he does not have history on his side. In five career outings against the Ravens, Parker has never amassed more than 63 yards, and has averaged better than four yards per carry only once. Baltimore held Parker to 47 yards on 14 carries when the teams played back in Week 15.
If the Ravens hold the Pittsburgh running game in check, it will be up to Roethlisberger to make plays down the field. The quarterback shook off the mild concussion that saw him carted off the field in Week 17 to play well versus San Diego last week.
The Ravens did not have their best defensive day of the year last week against the Titans, but were able to mitigate some struggles in that area by forcing three critical turnovers. Baltimore was #3 against the run during the regular season and will have to tighten the screws against Parker and the Steelers this week.
There's no real reason why this shouldn't be another close, low-scoring contest between two hard-hitting teams that are matched rather evenly.
Offensively, the Ravens want to establish the run and take pressure off Flacco. The Ravens have been able to run on Pittsburgh. In the first meeting with the Steelers, Baltimore outgained and outrushed Pittsburgh, while in the second meeting, Le'Ron McClain rushed for 87 yards. Those are actually good numbers against the NFL's #2 run defense, which gives up an average of only 80 yards on the ground.
The Steelers believe they can run against the Ravens, and they will try to do that on Sunday, but as a team, Pittsburgh has not rushed for 100 yards against Baltimore since 2005, and Parker has had little success trying.
We give Baltimore another edge here, as we look to play ON a team looking to avenge a loss in a game they should have won, especially if it’s a “bad beat”. It may be the last game at the same site played against an opponent or it may be the last game played overall against an opponent. The public may look back at a previous meeting and see little more than the final. Players hate to lose through unusual circumstances, such as a Hail Mary pass or bad call by an official. If the score was misleading, line value should be on the side of the revenge-seeking team.
The last meeting between these teams is a classic case with the Steelers being awarded a phantom TD.
"If you feel like you didn't necessarily get beat but you lost the game, you always want to have the opportunity to play that team again. Pittsburgh's got us twice this year, and give them all the credit in the world for doing that, but we feel like we have our opportunity in front of us. We have one goal all season, and that's to win the Super Bowl. And we have to beat Pittsburgh to get there." — Ravens Safety, Jim Leonhard.
We have a whopping 11 NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEMS active for this game and all 11 indicate a play ON Baltimore. Examining a few of them closer shows the Ravens to be in a very competitive spot here.
Underdogs at the right prices have been very tough on division opponents under the conditions described:
Play ON a Playoff division underdog of 4-8 points not off a Wildcard SU win as an underdog/pick ‘em/favorite of less than 3 points in its last game vs. an opponent not off a Monday division road underdog SU win in its last game.
Since 1990, these division teams are 14-0 ATS, crushing the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. Last week’s Eagles win over an NFC East-rival Giants team was the most recent example and qualifying game.
After a close Playoff victory, teams have been battle-tested and very competitive in their next Playoff game. This POWER SYSTEM states:
Play ON a Playoff underdog of 3+ points off a (non-home underdog) Playoff SU win of less than 7 points allowing less than 28 points in its last game.
Just since 1998, these under-valued teams are a smoking 17-0 ATS!
After knocking off a #1 seed in the Playoffs, teams have been very confident as an underdog. Baltimore beat the top-seeded Titans last week, and now are active for this small-sample system that reads:
Play ON a Playoff underdog off a Playoff SU win against a #1 seed allowing less than 28 points.
These surging teams are 6-0 ATS since 2000, blasting the spread by nearly 16 ppg on average! The Ravens qualified in their 2000 run to the Super Bowl. In that AFC Conference Championship Game, they were 6½-point underdogs are Oakland, but disposed of the Raiders easily, 16-3.
The winning team scoring the fewest points in the Semi-Final round have been overlooked and under-valued by the wagering public in Conference Championship games under the conditions described by this POWER SYSTEM:
Play ON a Conference Championship team off a Semi-Final SU win scoring less points than the other 3 Semi-Final SU winners last week vs. an opponent not off a Semi-Final favorite SU win of 21+ points or scoring 44+ points in its last game.
Since 1991, these teams are 9-0-1 ATS, while covering the spread by more than 13 ppg.
Additionally, the team with the better defensive effort in its previous playoff win has had the upper hand in Conference Championship games under the conditions outlined by yet another POWER SYSTEM:
Play ON a Conference Championship team off a Semi-Final SU win allowing less than 15 points in its last game vs. an opponent off a Semi-Final SU win allowing 14+ points (not as a 6+ point underdog) in its last game.
Since 1995, these teams are 15-0 ATS, beating the spread by more than 10 ppg on average.
They may not make it pretty, but Baltimore has a knack for keeping games close and giving themselves a chance to win, as they did last week against Tennessee. This game also figures to go right down to the wire, which strongly favors a big underdog as the Ravens are here.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: PITTSBURGH 21 BALTIMORE 20
Time / Date: 3:00 PM EST / Sunday January 18
Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals
Line Origin: BetCris @ 8:15 EST January 17
Weather: Dome Stadium
Grade / Prediction: 3* Philadelphia / Arizona UNDER 47
Analysis:
The Philadelphia Eagles make the trip to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.
Arizona’s defense has played well in their playoff wins over the Falcons and Panthers, allowing just 18.5 points per game and 259.5 yards per game. Their defense has come alive in the playoffs; they are a plus 7 in turnover differential in their two playoff games.
Philadelphia’s defense has continued its strong play in postseason wins at the Vikings and Giants, allowing only 12.5 points per game and 304 total yards per game. Since defeating Arizona, the Eagles’ D has held their last six opponents to 14 points or less, giving up an average of 10.8 points per game during that span. Philly is plus 1 in turnover differential in the playoffs.
The Eagles off a SU win on the road they are 0-6 Under, 1-4-1 Under last 6, 0-4 Under their last four on the road, 0-5-1 Under as playoff favorite, 16-42 Under as a favorite, 7-20 Under as a favorite on the highway. Arizona after going ‘under’ in their last game are 15-29 Under. We also know that teams off a SU and ATS win in their last two games on the road are 99-132-5 Under, if they are now installed as a favorite the record is 73-104-4 Under.
With both defenses playing at a very high level and both teams will try and protect any lead they have we will play the ‘under’ here as this game falls below the posted total.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* Philadelphia / Arizona UNDER 47
Time / Date: 6:30 EST / Sunday January 18
Game: Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 5:20 EST Jan 17
Weather: Temp: 20 / Wind Chill 16 / Snow 30% / Wind WSW 9 MPH
Grade / Prediction: 2* Baltimore / Pittsburgh OVER 33.5
Analysis:
Heinz Field will be the site of tonight’s AFC Championship Game between the host Pittsburgh Steelers and the visiting Baltimore Ravens. Pitt has won the two previous meetings this season, with the win in Baltimore coming by a questionable call by the referee and review officials.
The total has sailed ‘over’ in four of the last five series meetings with last month’s game in Baltimore the only exception. When these two teams meet at Heinz Field the ‘over’ has been the play the last four meetings.
Pittsburgh has also gone ‘over’ in fifteen of twenty meetings when hosting an AFC opponent. Pitt is 40-17-2 Over at home, 4-0 Over in the AFC title game, 11-2 Over in the playoffs overall, 8-01 Over when playing at home in the playoffs, 16-5 Over during the month of January, Pitt as a home favorite 37-16-2 Over, and when Pitt is coming off an ATS win and now installed as a home favorite they are 16-5-1 Over.
Baltimore is 5-2-1 Over on the road, 4-1-1 Over as a road underdog, 4-1 Over versus AFC North opponents. NFL Teams after winning their last 3 ATS now installed as an underdog of 3-6.5 points they are 127-95-7 Over, if the team has won their last 4 games ATS with the same situation the record is 53-31-3 Over. NFL Teams that have won their last 3 ATS and now play a postseason game with a line range of 3 to 6.5 are 31-17-1 Over. NFL Teams that have won ATS and gone ‘under’ in their last game and they are now playing in the postseason they are 14-5 Over.
With snow and frigid conditions in a game with two opportunistic defenses we will play the ‘over’ here as this game sails over the posted total.
GRADED PREDICTION: 2* Baltimore / Pittsburgh OVER 33.5
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