DR BOB
Opinions
Philadelphia (-4.0) 23 ARIZONA 19
The side on this game is tough to pick, but the under looks like a decent play. Arizona’s strength is an offense that has averaged 5.9 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team and that unit rates at 0.7 yppl better than average in the 13 games that WR Anquan Boldin has played. Boldin has missed 5 games this season, including last week’s win at Carolina, but he’s been upgraded to probable for this game, which makes the Cardinals’ pass attack tough to defend. Kurt Warner averaged 7.4 yards per pass play when both of his All-Pro receivers (Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald) were playing (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback), but I rate Philadelphia’s defense at 1.4 yppp better than average defending the pass and project a modest 6.0 yppp for the Cardinals in this game, which is what they averaged in their 20-48 loss at Philly in week 13. Arizona, averaging a porous 3.7 ypr for the season, isn’t going to have any success running against an Eagles’ defensive front that has yielded just 3.7 ypr this season to teams that would combine to average 4.6 ypr against an average defensive team. The Cardinals ran just 10 times for 25 yards in their first meeting with the Eagles and gained just 260 total yards at a mediocre 5.3 yards per play. While Arizona’s offense is a very good 0.7 yppl better than average, the Eagles’ defense is 1.1 yppl better than average and has been even better over the second half of the season. My math model projects just 5.0 yppl for the Cardinals in this game, but Arizona’s underrated defense should keep them close.Arizona has allowed a mediocre 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but Arizona is good defending the run (4.1 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense) and their pass defense is 0.2 yards per pass play better than average if you exclude the 2 games (week 4 and 5) when both top pass rusher Bertrand Berry and star safety Adrian Wilson were both out. Arizona is actually 0.3 yppl better than average defensively while Philadelphia’s offense is only 0.2 yppl better than average with Donovan McNabb at quarterback (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack). Don’t be fooled by the 48 points that Philadelphia scored against the Cardinals at home in week 13, as they averaged a modest 5.7 yppl in that game (compared to Arizona’s 5.3 yppl).
I have two math models and one favors the Eagles by 2½ points while the other favors Philly by 5 points, so a line of Philadelphia by 4 points is about right and I can certainly see this game going either way as far as the side is concerned. Arizona certainly played better at home this season, going 6-3 ATS on this field, but Philadelphia has been a very good road team under coach Andy Reid, posting a very profitable 56-31 ATS record away from home – including 6-1 ATS in the post-season. Home underdogs or picks have been a solid 19-9 ATS in the playoffs since 1980, but only 4-5 ATS in the conference championship games (1-5 ATS since 1988). I have no opinion on the side in this game.
This game should be a lot less scoring than the first meeting between these teams, as both defenses have an advantage over their opponent’s offense and both math models project a lower scoring game than expected. One model predicts 41 points and the other predicts 42 ½ total points and I’ll call for 42 total points scored. I’ll lean with Under (currently 47 points) and I’d consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 48 points or higher.
PITTSBURGH (-6.0) 20 Baltimore 13
Pittsburgh beat Baltimore by 3 points at home in overtime in week 4 and by 4 points at Baltimore in week 15 and it looks like the Steelers will make it a 3 game sweep on their way to the Super Bowl. I would have called for a closer game if the Ravens’ defense was fully healthy, but CB Samari Rolle has been downgraded to doubtful with a groin injury and top pass rusher Terrell Suggs is questionable with a shoulder injury, although I suspect he’ll try to play. Rolle is much more important to the Ravens’ defense than he’s given credit for, as Baltimore was great defending the pass in the 11 ¾ games he played and worse than average against the pass in the 6 ¼ games that he missed this season. For the season the Ravens have allowed 5.2 yards per pass play against quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defense. However, Baltimore was even better in the 11 ¾ games in which Rolle played, allowing just 4.7 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp against an average team. Rolle missed weeks 4 through 9 this season and also missed that last quarter or so of last week’s win at Tennessee and Baltimore allowed 6.4 yppp in those 6 ¼ games to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp. That’s not a fluke either, as the Ravens were also much better against the pass last season in 6 games with Rolle in the lineup, allowing just 5.8 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.3 yppp against an average team, compared to 7.5 yppp allowed in 10 games without Rolle (versus quarterbacks that would average 6.1 yppp). The Ravens are still very good defending the run (3.6 ypr allowed), but Ben Roethlisberger should be able to find some open receivers without Rolle manning one of the corners. I rate the Steelers’ offense at 0.2 yppl worse than average and Baltimore’s defense was just 0.2 yppl better than average without Rolle, so Pittsburgh is only at a 0.4 yppl disadvantage when they have the ball.
Baltimore’s offense, which also 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), is at a 1.6 yppl disadvantage against a dominting Steelers’ stop unit that has yielded just 4.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. That unit held
Baltimore to just 3.5 yppl in two games this season and my math model projects just 3.8 yppl for the Ravens in this game. The Ravens do have a slight advantage in projected turnovers and in special teams, but my math model favors the Steelers by 7 ½ points with Rolle out and I’ll lean with Pittsburgh at -6 ½ points or less and I have no opinion on the Over/Under.
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Opinions
Philadelphia (-4.0) 23 ARIZONA 19
The side on this game is tough to pick, but the under looks like a decent play. Arizona’s strength is an offense that has averaged 5.9 yards per play this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team and that unit rates at 0.7 yppl better than average in the 13 games that WR Anquan Boldin has played. Boldin has missed 5 games this season, including last week’s win at Carolina, but he’s been upgraded to probable for this game, which makes the Cardinals’ pass attack tough to defend. Kurt Warner averaged 7.4 yards per pass play when both of his All-Pro receivers (Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald) were playing (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback), but I rate Philadelphia’s defense at 1.4 yppp better than average defending the pass and project a modest 6.0 yppp for the Cardinals in this game, which is what they averaged in their 20-48 loss at Philly in week 13. Arizona, averaging a porous 3.7 ypr for the season, isn’t going to have any success running against an Eagles’ defensive front that has yielded just 3.7 ypr this season to teams that would combine to average 4.6 ypr against an average defensive team. The Cardinals ran just 10 times for 25 yards in their first meeting with the Eagles and gained just 260 total yards at a mediocre 5.3 yards per play. While Arizona’s offense is a very good 0.7 yppl better than average, the Eagles’ defense is 1.1 yppl better than average and has been even better over the second half of the season. My math model projects just 5.0 yppl for the Cardinals in this game, but Arizona’s underrated defense should keep them close.Arizona has allowed a mediocre 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team, but Arizona is good defending the run (4.1 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense) and their pass defense is 0.2 yards per pass play better than average if you exclude the 2 games (week 4 and 5) when both top pass rusher Bertrand Berry and star safety Adrian Wilson were both out. Arizona is actually 0.3 yppl better than average defensively while Philadelphia’s offense is only 0.2 yppl better than average with Donovan McNabb at quarterback (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack). Don’t be fooled by the 48 points that Philadelphia scored against the Cardinals at home in week 13, as they averaged a modest 5.7 yppl in that game (compared to Arizona’s 5.3 yppl).
I have two math models and one favors the Eagles by 2½ points while the other favors Philly by 5 points, so a line of Philadelphia by 4 points is about right and I can certainly see this game going either way as far as the side is concerned. Arizona certainly played better at home this season, going 6-3 ATS on this field, but Philadelphia has been a very good road team under coach Andy Reid, posting a very profitable 56-31 ATS record away from home – including 6-1 ATS in the post-season. Home underdogs or picks have been a solid 19-9 ATS in the playoffs since 1980, but only 4-5 ATS in the conference championship games (1-5 ATS since 1988). I have no opinion on the side in this game.
This game should be a lot less scoring than the first meeting between these teams, as both defenses have an advantage over their opponent’s offense and both math models project a lower scoring game than expected. One model predicts 41 points and the other predicts 42 ½ total points and I’ll call for 42 total points scored. I’ll lean with Under (currently 47 points) and I’d consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 48 points or higher.
PITTSBURGH (-6.0) 20 Baltimore 13
Pittsburgh beat Baltimore by 3 points at home in overtime in week 4 and by 4 points at Baltimore in week 15 and it looks like the Steelers will make it a 3 game sweep on their way to the Super Bowl. I would have called for a closer game if the Ravens’ defense was fully healthy, but CB Samari Rolle has been downgraded to doubtful with a groin injury and top pass rusher Terrell Suggs is questionable with a shoulder injury, although I suspect he’ll try to play. Rolle is much more important to the Ravens’ defense than he’s given credit for, as Baltimore was great defending the pass in the 11 ¾ games he played and worse than average against the pass in the 6 ¼ games that he missed this season. For the season the Ravens have allowed 5.2 yards per pass play against quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defense. However, Baltimore was even better in the 11 ¾ games in which Rolle played, allowing just 4.7 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp against an average team. Rolle missed weeks 4 through 9 this season and also missed that last quarter or so of last week’s win at Tennessee and Baltimore allowed 6.4 yppp in those 6 ¼ games to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp. That’s not a fluke either, as the Ravens were also much better against the pass last season in 6 games with Rolle in the lineup, allowing just 5.8 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.3 yppp against an average team, compared to 7.5 yppp allowed in 10 games without Rolle (versus quarterbacks that would average 6.1 yppp). The Ravens are still very good defending the run (3.6 ypr allowed), but Ben Roethlisberger should be able to find some open receivers without Rolle manning one of the corners. I rate the Steelers’ offense at 0.2 yppl worse than average and Baltimore’s defense was just 0.2 yppl better than average without Rolle, so Pittsburgh is only at a 0.4 yppl disadvantage when they have the ball.
Baltimore’s offense, which also 0.2 yppl worse than average (5.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), is at a 1.6 yppl disadvantage against a dominting Steelers’ stop unit that has yielded just 4.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. That unit held
Baltimore to just 3.5 yppl in two games this season and my math model projects just 3.8 yppl for the Ravens in this game. The Ravens do have a slight advantage in projected turnovers and in special teams, but my math model favors the Steelers by 7 ½ points with Rolle out and I’ll lean with Pittsburgh at -6 ½ points or less and I have no opinion on the Over/Under.
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