jeff benton
Jeff Benton Sunday's NFL Playoffs Action
30 Dime NFL playoff selection on the BEARS minus the points against the Seahawks. Chicago is a solid 10-point home favarite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. If you start to see this number tick up to 10½, be sure to get your wager in immeldiately and grab the 10. At the same time, if the odds dip below double digits, move quickly to grab 9½.
15 Dime NFL playoff selection on the OVER in the Bears-Seahawks contest. This total is ranging from 42 to 43 depelding on where you look. These are key numbers for NFL totals, so be sure to shop around and get the lowest total available and play it OVER.
BEARS
Yep, one week after cashing in big with Seattle in its shocking upset of the Saints – I had a 50 Dime winner on the Seahawks plus the points, a 15 Dime first-half winner and a 5 Dime money-line winner – I’m reversing field and fading Pete Carroll’s team. Why? Because the way I see, after so many factors lined up in Seattle’s favor a week ago, I see only three reasons to support the Seahawks today: 1) They’re riding a wave of moaentum after last week’s stunning upset; 2) they beat the Bears in Chicago earlier this season; and 3) you never know which Jay Cutler will show up for the Bears.
I can’t attack the latter point – I’ve stopped trying to figure out the enigma that is Cutler – but I can poke holes in the first two points. First off, last week was a perfect-storm type of situation for the Seahawks (playing in front of one of the best crowds in all of football; facing a dome team outdoors in the cold, one that had never won a road playoff game, one that was minus its top two running backs and one that was playing its fourth road game in six weeks and doing so on a short schedule; rallying around the “nobody believes in us” mantra). Seattle laid it all on the line in that game, both physically and emotionally – it truly was their Super Bowl – and I just don’t see any way they match that intlensity today, especially playing on foreign turf.
As for Seattle’s 23-20 upset win at Soldier Field on Oct. 17, it was a legit victory. The Seahawks outgained the Bears 353-307 and the defense sacked Cutler six times. However, Seattle was also coming off a bye week (this time, Chicago is the team that’s had two weeks to prepare). Also, the Bears did a much better job in pass protection over the second half of the season, when they went 7-2 down the stretch (only losses at the Packers and vs. the Patriots).
The Seahawks followed up the Bears win with a Week 6 home victory over the Cardinals (22-10). It was the only time they won back-to-back games this season until they beat the Rams to get into the playoffs in the season finale, then upset the New Orleans last week. And since the winner has covered the pointspread in each of Seattle’s 17 games this year, that means the Seahawks haven’t had a three-game SU or ATS winning streak all season.
The last time Seattle won three in a row? When they had a five-game winning streak in the second half of the 2007 season. The last time Seattle covered three straight games? December 2008 (and it was favored in one of those contests). Melning the Seahawks have played 34 straight games without a 3-0 ATS streak.
Finally, as I pointed out last week, the Seahawks have had a very unique season in that they either win outright or they get their doors blown off. Including last week’s victory, they’re now 8-9 on the season. Six of their wins were outright upsets (the other two came as a favorite against the crappy Panthers and Cardinals at home). The nine losses? All by 15 points or more, including road losses at Denver (31-14), St. Louis (20-3), Oakland (33-3), New Orleans (34-19), San Francisco (40-21) and Tampa Bay (38-15).
So if that trends hold form, either the Seahawks will win this game outright or lose by at least two touchdowns. As noted already, I just don’t think Seattle, which is 16-35-1 ATS in its last 52 road games, has what it takes to win back-to-back games as a double-digit underdog or pull off three straight upsets (remember, they were a three-point home ‘dog against St. Louis in the season finale).
Because of Seattle’s win in Chicago earlier this season and its win over New Orleans last week, the element of surprise is out the window. The Bears, who ended the regular season a 6-2-1 ATS run and beat the likes of the Jets and Eagles, will NOT take the Seahawks lightly. And as long as Cutler plays smart, Chicago will roll by at least 17 points.
Bears-Seahawks OVER
Don’t like the fact this total has skyrocketed from an opening number of 40 all the way up to 43. But the movement is justified when you look at both the history between these teams and also the way both these squads have been trending over the total lately.
Each of the last five Seahawks-Bears clashes have hurdled the total, including a 27-24 overtime playoff game in Chicago exactly four years ago. The scores of the other four contests: 37-6, 30-23, 25-19 and 23-20. So all five have at least reached 43 points.
Seattle easily cleared the total in last week’s 41-36 win over the Saints, making the over 9-1 in their last 10 games (including 4-0 “over” on the road). The combined point totals in those nine “overs” were as follows: 48, 54, 53, 66, 45, 61, 52, 53 and 77. Additionally, the Seahawks are on high-scoring runs of 12-3-1 as an underdog, 36-17 as a road underdog, 39-17 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points, 4-0 in the playoffs, 4-1 as a playoff ‘dog, 8-1 in NFC games, 6-0 against winning teams and 6-1 on grass.
Chicago played a tight defensive game at Green Bay to end the season (the Packers won 10-3), but prior to that the Bears played five straight “overs” with final scores of 31-26 (home), 24-20, 36-7 (home), 40-14 and 38-34 (home). Those latter three games (against the Patriots, Vikings and Jets, respectively)? All were played in freezing cold and snow. Chicago also is on “over” runs of 21-10 as a home chalk, 4-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 in playoff home games, 4-0 as a playoff favorite and 8-1 in January.
Look for this one to end up in the 34-17 range.
Jeff Benton Sunday's NFL Playoffs Action
30 Dime NFL playoff selection on the BEARS minus the points against the Seahawks. Chicago is a solid 10-point home favarite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. If you start to see this number tick up to 10½, be sure to get your wager in immeldiately and grab the 10. At the same time, if the odds dip below double digits, move quickly to grab 9½.
15 Dime NFL playoff selection on the OVER in the Bears-Seahawks contest. This total is ranging from 42 to 43 depelding on where you look. These are key numbers for NFL totals, so be sure to shop around and get the lowest total available and play it OVER.
BEARS
Yep, one week after cashing in big with Seattle in its shocking upset of the Saints – I had a 50 Dime winner on the Seahawks plus the points, a 15 Dime first-half winner and a 5 Dime money-line winner – I’m reversing field and fading Pete Carroll’s team. Why? Because the way I see, after so many factors lined up in Seattle’s favor a week ago, I see only three reasons to support the Seahawks today: 1) They’re riding a wave of moaentum after last week’s stunning upset; 2) they beat the Bears in Chicago earlier this season; and 3) you never know which Jay Cutler will show up for the Bears.
I can’t attack the latter point – I’ve stopped trying to figure out the enigma that is Cutler – but I can poke holes in the first two points. First off, last week was a perfect-storm type of situation for the Seahawks (playing in front of one of the best crowds in all of football; facing a dome team outdoors in the cold, one that had never won a road playoff game, one that was minus its top two running backs and one that was playing its fourth road game in six weeks and doing so on a short schedule; rallying around the “nobody believes in us” mantra). Seattle laid it all on the line in that game, both physically and emotionally – it truly was their Super Bowl – and I just don’t see any way they match that intlensity today, especially playing on foreign turf.
As for Seattle’s 23-20 upset win at Soldier Field on Oct. 17, it was a legit victory. The Seahawks outgained the Bears 353-307 and the defense sacked Cutler six times. However, Seattle was also coming off a bye week (this time, Chicago is the team that’s had two weeks to prepare). Also, the Bears did a much better job in pass protection over the second half of the season, when they went 7-2 down the stretch (only losses at the Packers and vs. the Patriots).
The Seahawks followed up the Bears win with a Week 6 home victory over the Cardinals (22-10). It was the only time they won back-to-back games this season until they beat the Rams to get into the playoffs in the season finale, then upset the New Orleans last week. And since the winner has covered the pointspread in each of Seattle’s 17 games this year, that means the Seahawks haven’t had a three-game SU or ATS winning streak all season.
The last time Seattle won three in a row? When they had a five-game winning streak in the second half of the 2007 season. The last time Seattle covered three straight games? December 2008 (and it was favored in one of those contests). Melning the Seahawks have played 34 straight games without a 3-0 ATS streak.
Finally, as I pointed out last week, the Seahawks have had a very unique season in that they either win outright or they get their doors blown off. Including last week’s victory, they’re now 8-9 on the season. Six of their wins were outright upsets (the other two came as a favorite against the crappy Panthers and Cardinals at home). The nine losses? All by 15 points or more, including road losses at Denver (31-14), St. Louis (20-3), Oakland (33-3), New Orleans (34-19), San Francisco (40-21) and Tampa Bay (38-15).
So if that trends hold form, either the Seahawks will win this game outright or lose by at least two touchdowns. As noted already, I just don’t think Seattle, which is 16-35-1 ATS in its last 52 road games, has what it takes to win back-to-back games as a double-digit underdog or pull off three straight upsets (remember, they were a three-point home ‘dog against St. Louis in the season finale).
Because of Seattle’s win in Chicago earlier this season and its win over New Orleans last week, the element of surprise is out the window. The Bears, who ended the regular season a 6-2-1 ATS run and beat the likes of the Jets and Eagles, will NOT take the Seahawks lightly. And as long as Cutler plays smart, Chicago will roll by at least 17 points.
Bears-Seahawks OVER
Don’t like the fact this total has skyrocketed from an opening number of 40 all the way up to 43. But the movement is justified when you look at both the history between these teams and also the way both these squads have been trending over the total lately.
Each of the last five Seahawks-Bears clashes have hurdled the total, including a 27-24 overtime playoff game in Chicago exactly four years ago. The scores of the other four contests: 37-6, 30-23, 25-19 and 23-20. So all five have at least reached 43 points.
Seattle easily cleared the total in last week’s 41-36 win over the Saints, making the over 9-1 in their last 10 games (including 4-0 “over” on the road). The combined point totals in those nine “overs” were as follows: 48, 54, 53, 66, 45, 61, 52, 53 and 77. Additionally, the Seahawks are on high-scoring runs of 12-3-1 as an underdog, 36-17 as a road underdog, 39-17 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points, 4-0 in the playoffs, 4-1 as a playoff ‘dog, 8-1 in NFC games, 6-0 against winning teams and 6-1 on grass.
Chicago played a tight defensive game at Green Bay to end the season (the Packers won 10-3), but prior to that the Bears played five straight “overs” with final scores of 31-26 (home), 24-20, 36-7 (home), 40-14 and 38-34 (home). Those latter three games (against the Patriots, Vikings and Jets, respectively)? All were played in freezing cold and snow. Chicago also is on “over” runs of 21-10 as a home chalk, 4-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 in playoff home games, 4-0 as a playoff favorite and 8-1 in January.
Look for this one to end up in the 34-17 range.
Hammer the book
nfl plays
3-units: Chicago bears over 42 1/2
4-units: Patriots -9
nba plays
4-units: Los angeles clippers +6
college basketball plays
4-units: Notre dame fighting irish +3.5
4-units: Eastern michigan +9.5
3-units: Minnesota golden gophers -10 1/2
nhl plays
3-units: Philadelphia flyers ml +115
4-units: Chicago blackhawks ml -162
nfl plays
3-units: Chicago bears over 42 1/2
4-units: Patriots -9
nba plays
4-units: Los angeles clippers +6
college basketball plays
4-units: Notre dame fighting irish +3.5
4-units: Eastern michigan +9.5
3-units: Minnesota golden gophers -10 1/2
nhl plays
3-units: Philadelphia flyers ml +115
4-units: Chicago blackhawks ml -162
