Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
25 Dime – CARDINALS (This line has gone from Arizona -2 1/2 to Green Bay -1 1/2 and climbing. If for some reason it gets all the way up to -2 1/2, buy the 1/2 point insurance up to 3. I suggest waiting as late in the day as possible to place this wager)
10 Dime – RAVENS (Buy the 1/2 point)
ARIZONA CARDINALS (this line has gone from Arizona -2 1/2 to Green Bay -1 1/2 and climbing. If for some reason it gets all the way up to -2 1/2, buy the 1/2 point insurance up to 3. I suggest waiting as late in the day as possible to place this wager) --- Going against the public in this one as I believe the Cardinals are the right side for several reasons. First off, I'm always more comfortable going against the general public, especially when nearly 90% of the wagers have come in on Green Bay. And with the Jets winning today, it gives bettors more confidence in Green Bay's last week performance. "If the Jets can do it, the Packers can do it". The difference is, I think the Cardinals are much better than their 10-6 record and I firmly believe they "coasted" through the end of the regular season as they looked somewhat indifferent. And it really doesn't surprise me either, as the goal of this team all along was to get back to the playoffs and WIN the Super Bowl, NOT get the #1 seed.
Remember, the Cardinals came in last year having to play during Wild Card Weekend, they were coming in cold while the Atlanta Falcons were coming in hot, having finished the second half of the season 6-2, including winning the final three games of the regular season (and 5 of their last 6). Atlanta, ironically, also came in 11-5 but didn't win the division... just like Green Bay. Arizona, meanwhile, struggled at the end of this season much like they struggled to finish last year, as they dropped 4 of their final 6 in 2008 after a 7-3 start. Sound familiar?
I don't doubt for a second that Green Bay is more than capable of winning this game, but I'll put my money on a team that represented the NFC in the Super Bowl just a year ago rather than a team who happened to finish the regular season hot but didn't sniff the post-season last year after finishing 6-10. Kurt Warner has played in two Super Bowls... Aaron Rodgers hasn't been in the playoffs.
Ultimately, I think this Arizona team is better than last year's edition and yet 90% of the country doesn't agree. Why are they better? I think their run defense is even better than it was last season which will force the Packers to abandon Ryan Grant and rely on Aaron Rodgers... which means they'll likely be one-dimensional. The other area I believe the Cardinals are better is in the power run game. With no disrespect to Edgerrin James, Beanie Wells (even though he's a rookie) gives them a bigger, more physical presence and offers a solid 1-2 punch along with Tim Hightower. It opens the playbook for Ken Whisenhunt and Kurt Warner to do a number of things they likely couldn't do last year. I was ready to take the Cardinals -2 1/2... so you can imagine my joy when I saw this line move 3 points in my favor.
I'm thinking something in the neighborhood of a 6-point Cardinals win... I'll call Arizona 30 Green Bay 24.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (absolutely buy the 1/2 point) --- So far the underdogs are 1-1 in the Wild Card round, and if you've been following the Wild Card round in the playoffs over the last 10 years, you know the dogs have been really good. Again, I'm going to side against public perception that the Ravens can't win on the road. Yes, I'm aware the Ravens were just 3-5 SU away from Baltimore this year and I know they have injuries on both sides of the ball, but this team is also the defending AFC runner up having played the Pittsburgh Steelers right to the wire three times last year. Yes, I know this team is a little different than last year's team, but it also has a QB who is a year more experienced and a RB who is finally developing into a franchise-type guy too. Despite having some injury issues on the offensive line, they've still been able to keep Joe Flacco upright, for the most part, and open holes for both Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Defensively, the Ravens aren't quite as good as they were last season, but they still stop the run with the best of them, allowing less than 100 yards on the ground per game.
New England, on the other hand, has been a very frustrating team to handicap, covering just 50% of their games this year... failing to cover the number when you expect them to and covering when you think they have no chance. And to make matters worse, they'll have to play today's game without WR Wes Welker, who will be in street clothes today after tearing both his ACL and MCL in last week's loss to Houston. But it goes further than just Welker... I don't really trust Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor or Sammy Morris either. New England, as a whole, rushes for just 120 yards per game and they really haven't seen a solid run defense like they're going to see in today's game SINCE they faced the the Ravens back in Week 5. In that game the Pats did win by 6, but they rushed for just 85 yards on 30 carries and you simply can't post those type of numbers in the playoffs and expect to win. Plus, the Ravens had the ball deep in New England territory with a minute left when Mark Clayton dropped an easy 4th down pass that would have set the Ravens up with first-and-goal inside the 10 yard line.
I had a small play on the Bengals yesterday and my reasoning was... these two teams are fairly close defensively and in the run game, but Carson Palmer vs. Mark Sanchez isn't even close. Boy was I wrong. Good thing I had the Cowboys as my top play... even though I hate mis-handicapping any game. I'm not playing the Tom Brady vs. Joe Flacco card today. I'm looking at the teams as a whole and I believe this game comes down to a field goal. Not sure who wins SU but I like the Ravens to come in under the number.
Sunday's Lineup
25 Dime – CARDINALS (This line has gone from Arizona -2 1/2 to Green Bay -1 1/2 and climbing. If for some reason it gets all the way up to -2 1/2, buy the 1/2 point insurance up to 3. I suggest waiting as late in the day as possible to place this wager)
10 Dime – RAVENS (Buy the 1/2 point)
ARIZONA CARDINALS (this line has gone from Arizona -2 1/2 to Green Bay -1 1/2 and climbing. If for some reason it gets all the way up to -2 1/2, buy the 1/2 point insurance up to 3. I suggest waiting as late in the day as possible to place this wager) --- Going against the public in this one as I believe the Cardinals are the right side for several reasons. First off, I'm always more comfortable going against the general public, especially when nearly 90% of the wagers have come in on Green Bay. And with the Jets winning today, it gives bettors more confidence in Green Bay's last week performance. "If the Jets can do it, the Packers can do it". The difference is, I think the Cardinals are much better than their 10-6 record and I firmly believe they "coasted" through the end of the regular season as they looked somewhat indifferent. And it really doesn't surprise me either, as the goal of this team all along was to get back to the playoffs and WIN the Super Bowl, NOT get the #1 seed.
Remember, the Cardinals came in last year having to play during Wild Card Weekend, they were coming in cold while the Atlanta Falcons were coming in hot, having finished the second half of the season 6-2, including winning the final three games of the regular season (and 5 of their last 6). Atlanta, ironically, also came in 11-5 but didn't win the division... just like Green Bay. Arizona, meanwhile, struggled at the end of this season much like they struggled to finish last year, as they dropped 4 of their final 6 in 2008 after a 7-3 start. Sound familiar?
I don't doubt for a second that Green Bay is more than capable of winning this game, but I'll put my money on a team that represented the NFC in the Super Bowl just a year ago rather than a team who happened to finish the regular season hot but didn't sniff the post-season last year after finishing 6-10. Kurt Warner has played in two Super Bowls... Aaron Rodgers hasn't been in the playoffs.
Ultimately, I think this Arizona team is better than last year's edition and yet 90% of the country doesn't agree. Why are they better? I think their run defense is even better than it was last season which will force the Packers to abandon Ryan Grant and rely on Aaron Rodgers... which means they'll likely be one-dimensional. The other area I believe the Cardinals are better is in the power run game. With no disrespect to Edgerrin James, Beanie Wells (even though he's a rookie) gives them a bigger, more physical presence and offers a solid 1-2 punch along with Tim Hightower. It opens the playbook for Ken Whisenhunt and Kurt Warner to do a number of things they likely couldn't do last year. I was ready to take the Cardinals -2 1/2... so you can imagine my joy when I saw this line move 3 points in my favor.
I'm thinking something in the neighborhood of a 6-point Cardinals win... I'll call Arizona 30 Green Bay 24.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (absolutely buy the 1/2 point) --- So far the underdogs are 1-1 in the Wild Card round, and if you've been following the Wild Card round in the playoffs over the last 10 years, you know the dogs have been really good. Again, I'm going to side against public perception that the Ravens can't win on the road. Yes, I'm aware the Ravens were just 3-5 SU away from Baltimore this year and I know they have injuries on both sides of the ball, but this team is also the defending AFC runner up having played the Pittsburgh Steelers right to the wire three times last year. Yes, I know this team is a little different than last year's team, but it also has a QB who is a year more experienced and a RB who is finally developing into a franchise-type guy too. Despite having some injury issues on the offensive line, they've still been able to keep Joe Flacco upright, for the most part, and open holes for both Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. Defensively, the Ravens aren't quite as good as they were last season, but they still stop the run with the best of them, allowing less than 100 yards on the ground per game.
New England, on the other hand, has been a very frustrating team to handicap, covering just 50% of their games this year... failing to cover the number when you expect them to and covering when you think they have no chance. And to make matters worse, they'll have to play today's game without WR Wes Welker, who will be in street clothes today after tearing both his ACL and MCL in last week's loss to Houston. But it goes further than just Welker... I don't really trust Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor or Sammy Morris either. New England, as a whole, rushes for just 120 yards per game and they really haven't seen a solid run defense like they're going to see in today's game SINCE they faced the the Ravens back in Week 5. In that game the Pats did win by 6, but they rushed for just 85 yards on 30 carries and you simply can't post those type of numbers in the playoffs and expect to win. Plus, the Ravens had the ball deep in New England territory with a minute left when Mark Clayton dropped an easy 4th down pass that would have set the Ravens up with first-and-goal inside the 10 yard line.
I had a small play on the Bengals yesterday and my reasoning was... these two teams are fairly close defensively and in the run game, but Carson Palmer vs. Mark Sanchez isn't even close. Boy was I wrong. Good thing I had the Cowboys as my top play... even though I hate mis-handicapping any game. I'm not playing the Tom Brady vs. Joe Flacco card today. I'm looking at the teams as a whole and I believe this game comes down to a field goal. Not sure who wins SU but I like the Ravens to come in under the number.
