King Creole | NFL Total Sun, 01/10/10 - 4:40 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 107 GBP / 108 ARI Over 47.5 Bodog
Analysis: 4:40pm ET / GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
1* Play on: ARIZONA CARDINALS
Last week’s game may have went to the Packers and the “UNDER”, but not this week’s rematch. After clinching their division title, Arizona had abso~lutely nothing to play for. QB Kurt Warner was pulled in the first quarter. So in researching this week’s rematch, last week’s results really won’t provide any illuminating data. But a look at the meeting BEFORE that one might reveal some tendencies that we can digest. These two teams played each other in the 3rd week of the 2009 PRE-SEASON. And as all sharps know, that’s the week which is basically a dress rehersal for week one of the season. Starters get the bulk of the playing time, and they did back on Friday, August 28th. Final score in that game was 44-37. Green Bay got out to a lead of 38-10 at the half. Arizona came all the way back in the 4th quarter to close the score to 38-37. The Packers then scored a final TD with 33 seconds left to get the 7-point win. Both teams had a combined 971 total yards of offense, including 740 thru the air.
This went 2-0 O/U yesterday. We’ll see if the PERFECT “Over” pattern continues for one more game. The situation is for Playoff REMATCHES from the previous week: 6-0 O/U Since 2001: ALL WILDCARD game featuring two teams who played each other the previous week. Teams on the ROAD (GB) have gone 1-3-1 ATS… and 5-0 O/U since 1993 season. Average total points in these games has been 53.3.
10-4 ATS: All PLAYOFF home dogs of < 3 pts (ARZ)… and 7-1 ATS as dogs of 2 < pts (check line).
4-1 O/U: All PLAYOFF Home dogs (ARZ) with an OU line of > 44 points.
9-1 O/U: All PLAYOFF favs of 13 < points who scored 31 or more points in EACH of their last 3 games (GB).
10-2 O/U: All PLAYOFF favs of < 7 points off BB wins of 24 > points each (GB).
12-4 O/U Since 1997: All NFC WEST division teams at HOME in the PLAYOFFS vs a non-division opponent (ARZ)…. 9-2 O/U since 2002.
0-3 ATS / 3-0 O/U: All WILDCARD (WC) teams off BB SU wins of 21 > points each (GB).
6-0 ATS / 5-1 O/U: All WC teams playing off a SU favorite loss (GB).
0-5 ATS / 4-1 O/U: All WC road teams playing off 3 or more ATS wins in a row... with the last by double-digits (GB).
0-4 ATS: All WC road teams with a .650 > winning percentage vs an opponent with a < .650 winning percentage (ARZ).
7-0 O/U: All WC teams who scored 7< points in their last game (ARZ).
4-1-1 O/U: All WC teams who allowed 7 < points on the ROAD in their last game (GB).
double-dime bet 107 GBP / 108 ARI Over 47.5 Bodog
Analysis: 4:40pm ET / GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
2** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
1* Play on: ARIZONA CARDINALS
Last week’s game may have went to the Packers and the “UNDER”, but not this week’s rematch. After clinching their division title, Arizona had abso~lutely nothing to play for. QB Kurt Warner was pulled in the first quarter. So in researching this week’s rematch, last week’s results really won’t provide any illuminating data. But a look at the meeting BEFORE that one might reveal some tendencies that we can digest. These two teams played each other in the 3rd week of the 2009 PRE-SEASON. And as all sharps know, that’s the week which is basically a dress rehersal for week one of the season. Starters get the bulk of the playing time, and they did back on Friday, August 28th. Final score in that game was 44-37. Green Bay got out to a lead of 38-10 at the half. Arizona came all the way back in the 4th quarter to close the score to 38-37. The Packers then scored a final TD with 33 seconds left to get the 7-point win. Both teams had a combined 971 total yards of offense, including 740 thru the air.
This went 2-0 O/U yesterday. We’ll see if the PERFECT “Over” pattern continues for one more game. The situation is for Playoff REMATCHES from the previous week: 6-0 O/U Since 2001: ALL WILDCARD game featuring two teams who played each other the previous week. Teams on the ROAD (GB) have gone 1-3-1 ATS… and 5-0 O/U since 1993 season. Average total points in these games has been 53.3.
10-4 ATS: All PLAYOFF home dogs of < 3 pts (ARZ)… and 7-1 ATS as dogs of 2 < pts (check line).
4-1 O/U: All PLAYOFF Home dogs (ARZ) with an OU line of > 44 points.
9-1 O/U: All PLAYOFF favs of 13 < points who scored 31 or more points in EACH of their last 3 games (GB).
10-2 O/U: All PLAYOFF favs of < 7 points off BB wins of 24 > points each (GB).
12-4 O/U Since 1997: All NFC WEST division teams at HOME in the PLAYOFFS vs a non-division opponent (ARZ)…. 9-2 O/U since 2002.
0-3 ATS / 3-0 O/U: All WILDCARD (WC) teams off BB SU wins of 21 > points each (GB).
6-0 ATS / 5-1 O/U: All WC teams playing off a SU favorite loss (GB).
0-5 ATS / 4-1 O/U: All WC road teams playing off 3 or more ATS wins in a row... with the last by double-digits (GB).
0-4 ATS: All WC road teams with a .650 > winning percentage vs an opponent with a < .650 winning percentage (ARZ).
7-0 O/U: All WC teams who scored 7< points in their last game (ARZ).
4-1-1 O/U: All WC teams who allowed 7 < points on the ROAD in their last game (GB).
Tony George | NFL Side Sun, 01/10/10 - 1:00 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 106 NEP -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 105 BAL
Analysis:
Patriots -3
Baltimore is overrated, lost every big game they were in this year and have been destroyed by teams with a balance�d attack and a good QB. Did I just describe the Pats? At home and wanting to make a statement, and beating up on an aging and tired Raven defense without Ed Reed will be the mission of NE. Ravens RB Rice may find success but doubt Raven offense can keep pace with motivated Pats team who played hard their last game and are in sync and 8-0 at home SU.
Play 1.5 Units on New England
2 Team 6 point Teaser...Tease New England to +3 and Green Bay to +7...for a half unit.
double-dime bet 106 NEP -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 105 BAL
Analysis:
Patriots -3
Baltimore is overrated, lost every big game they were in this year and have been destroyed by teams with a balance�d attack and a good QB. Did I just describe the Pats? At home and wanting to make a statement, and beating up on an aging and tired Raven defense without Ed Reed will be the mission of NE. Ravens RB Rice may find success but doubt Raven offense can keep pace with motivated Pats team who played hard their last game and are in sync and 8-0 at home SU.
Play 1.5 Units on New England
2 Team 6 point Teaser...Tease New England to +3 and Green Bay to +7...for a half unit.
SB Professor
Boston Celtics -1*
No early NCAA plays. Here is an update from yesterday. Please note that the late games were not posted (good thing)....
Early games (posted)
Ohio U -3.5* [A] L
Ball St. -3.5 L
Drexel -3.5 L
Late games not posted
6:00 PM EST
Seton Hall -3.5* W
9:00 PM EST
Boise St. -6.5* [A] L
The rest:
Stanford -3.5 W
Charlotte U -6.5 L
West Virginia -3.5 L
New Orleans +13 L
1-0 with * system, 2-7 all plays
YTD 2-0 * system, 3-7 all plays
Boston Celtics -1*
No early NCAA plays. Here is an update from yesterday. Please note that the late games were not posted (good thing)....
Early games (posted)
Ohio U -3.5* [A] L
Ball St. -3.5 L
Drexel -3.5 L
Late games not posted
6:00 PM EST
Seton Hall -3.5* W
9:00 PM EST
Boise St. -6.5* [A] L
The rest:
Stanford -3.5 W
Charlotte U -6.5 L
West Virginia -3.5 L
New Orleans +13 L
1-0 with * system, 2-7 all plays
YTD 2-0 * system, 3-7 all plays
Steve Duemig
Sunday's Winners
30 Dime - Ravens
This will be the second meeting between these two teams. The Patriots won that game 27-21 with a little late drama that could have shown a different outcome. Mark Clayton dropped a pass on 4th down where he was wide open and could have walked into the end zone. That really doesn't have too much bearing on this week but it shows that the Ravens can hang with this team. The Ravens can hang with any team in the league which is why we like them here to cover. Their defense keeps them in every game and they are more than likely getting Ed Reid back which is very big. He seems to always be around the football, especially during playoff time. This isn't the same old Patriots here though either. They seem to feed off the meek of the NFL and struggle with the tough teams.
Offensively the Patriots may have been dealt a death blow with the loss of Wes Welker. Without a doubt he was Brady's favorite target. Welker ate up yards and catches for first downs. That kind of player cannot be replaced, even though Edelman is a decent option but he isn't Welker. The other thing that not having Welker does to the offense of NE is it will now allow the Ravens defense to take away Randy Moss. That my friends is huge!! With Welker you can't concentrate totally on Moss, without Welker you can.
Ray Rice has been invaluable in both the Ravens run game and the short passing game eating up huge chunks for yardage almost every game. He will be asked to do a lot in this game and I look for Belechik to make him the prime target to take away from the Ravens attack. Flacco has some playoff experience which I think will be a big boost as well.He will need his receivers to come up big and help out.
The Ravens may not win here but they will hang and that's all we need. Just Hang around that field goal. Early line move has been toward the dog but I look for the public to stay with the favorite here and so you may get to the 4 which I recommend getting.
10 Dime - Packers-Cardinals Under
Line opened at 48.5 but at the time of writing it is down to 47.5. It was hit fairly early too but I expect the huge volume of the public to help this get back up by kick off. The main thing that should have caught your attention however and it definitely caught mine was that we see a HUGE % of the O/U bets going on the over yet the total moved DOWN. That means that there is smarter money going on the under and since we a re smart that's where we will go as well. I think everyone expects a pass fest here but teams tend to get a little tighter and more conservative in the playoffs. GB is a very good defensive team and they lead the league in turnover +/- Warner is very smart however and I don't think he will be giving them too many ops.
Sunday's Winners
30 Dime - Ravens
This will be the second meeting between these two teams. The Patriots won that game 27-21 with a little late drama that could have shown a different outcome. Mark Clayton dropped a pass on 4th down where he was wide open and could have walked into the end zone. That really doesn't have too much bearing on this week but it shows that the Ravens can hang with this team. The Ravens can hang with any team in the league which is why we like them here to cover. Their defense keeps them in every game and they are more than likely getting Ed Reid back which is very big. He seems to always be around the football, especially during playoff time. This isn't the same old Patriots here though either. They seem to feed off the meek of the NFL and struggle with the tough teams.
Offensively the Patriots may have been dealt a death blow with the loss of Wes Welker. Without a doubt he was Brady's favorite target. Welker ate up yards and catches for first downs. That kind of player cannot be replaced, even though Edelman is a decent option but he isn't Welker. The other thing that not having Welker does to the offense of NE is it will now allow the Ravens defense to take away Randy Moss. That my friends is huge!! With Welker you can't concentrate totally on Moss, without Welker you can.
Ray Rice has been invaluable in both the Ravens run game and the short passing game eating up huge chunks for yardage almost every game. He will be asked to do a lot in this game and I look for Belechik to make him the prime target to take away from the Ravens attack. Flacco has some playoff experience which I think will be a big boost as well.He will need his receivers to come up big and help out.
The Ravens may not win here but they will hang and that's all we need. Just Hang around that field goal. Early line move has been toward the dog but I look for the public to stay with the favorite here and so you may get to the 4 which I recommend getting.
10 Dime - Packers-Cardinals Under
Line opened at 48.5 but at the time of writing it is down to 47.5. It was hit fairly early too but I expect the huge volume of the public to help this get back up by kick off. The main thing that should have caught your attention however and it definitely caught mine was that we see a HUGE % of the O/U bets going on the over yet the total moved DOWN. That means that there is smarter money going on the under and since we a re smart that's where we will go as well. I think everyone expects a pass fest here but teams tend to get a little tighter and more conservative in the playoffs. GB is a very good defensive team and they lead the league in turnover +/- Warner is very smart however and I don't think he will be giving them too many ops.
Jack Jones
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Over 47
The Green Bay Packers have scored 36, 48, and 33 points in their last three games, while the Cardinals scored 30+ in three of their last four (excluding last week when they rested most of their starters).
The Cardinals are scoring 23.4 ppg this year against teams who allow 22.8 and they give up 23.2 ppg at home against teams who score only 20.5. The Packers have put up a whopping 30.2 ppg on the road this year against teams allowing 22.3.
Packers game have played to the OVER 19 out of 26 times when Green Bay has won two straight games by 14 or more points since 1992 and the Pack are 19-9 OVER coming off a win the last three seasons. I think you are going to see plenty of points in this playoff game today.
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Over 47
The Green Bay Packers have scored 36, 48, and 33 points in their last three games, while the Cardinals scored 30+ in three of their last four (excluding last week when they rested most of their starters).
The Cardinals are scoring 23.4 ppg this year against teams who allow 22.8 and they give up 23.2 ppg at home against teams who score only 20.5. The Packers have put up a whopping 30.2 ppg on the road this year against teams allowing 22.3.
Packers game have played to the OVER 19 out of 26 times when Green Bay has won two straight games by 14 or more points since 1992 and the Pack are 19-9 OVER coming off a win the last three seasons. I think you are going to see plenty of points in this playoff game today.
