SPORTS ADVISORS
Baltimore (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) at New England (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS)
The third-seeded Patriots return to the postseason after a one-year hiatus, playing host to the Ravens in a wild-card clash at Gillette Stadium.
New England was steady throughout the season, losing consecutive games only once – at Miami and at New Orleans – and putting together a late 3-0 SU surge (2-1 ATS) to clinch the AFC East title. In a meaningless regular-season finale at Houston last Sunday, the Pats led 27-13 early in the fourth quarter before allowing the Texans to rally, with New England ultimately falling 34-27 as a seven-point underdog.
The much bigger loss, though, was that of standout WR Wes Welker, who tore up his left knee and is out for the playoffs. Welker posted a league-best 123 receptions for 1,348 yards (second) despite essentially playing just 13 games.
Baltimore, which reached the AFC title game last year, was inconsistent much of this season. The Ravens got out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, then dropped three in a row (1-2 ATS) as part of a 3-6 SU and ATS nosedive that nearly knocked them out of playoff contention. Baltimore bounced back by winning three of its last four (2-1-1 ATS), including a 21-13 victory at Oakland laying 10 points Sunday in the regular-season finale – a must-win in order to punch its playoff ticket.
The Patriots are a superb 14-3 in the playoffs over the last decade, including three Super Bowl victories, and they fell just short of a fourth in their last postseason contest – the 17-14 loss to the Giants two years ago as an overwhelming 12-point favorite. New England missed the playoffs last year, despite going 11-5 SU and playing all but one quarter without Brady.
The Ravens rode the wild card to the AFC title game last year, beating Miami and Tennessee SU and ATS on the road before falling to eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 23-14 as a six-point road pup. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in its last eight playoff roadies and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight as a road pup of three or less, but it also shoulders negative ATS streaks of 2-7 in January, 0-4 against winning teams, 1-3-1 on the highway, 1-4-1 after a SU win and 0-3-1 against the AFC.
These teams just met in October, with New England hanging on for the 27-21 home win as a one-point chalk. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four clashes, and the home team is 4-0 ATS in that stretch.
The Patriots sport one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 397.3 ypg – trailing only New Orleans and Dallas, respectively – and 26.7 ppg (sixth). Not surprisingly, QB Tom Brady is the catalyst, as he returned after missing all of last season with a knee injury and threw for 4,398 yards (fifth) with 28 TDs and 13 INTs as he guided the NFL’s third-best passing attack (277.2 ypg). New England also rates among the top scoring defenses, allowing just 17.8 ppg (fifth) on 320.2 ypg (11th).
The Ravens averaged 351.2 ypg (13th), including the fifth-best running attack at 137.5 ypg, led by RB Ray Rice’s 1,339 rushing yards (5.3 ypc, 7 TDs). Baltimore put up 24.4 ppg on the year (ninth), but did so in rather inconsistent fashion. The Ravens scored 30 points or more seven times and 21 points or less in their other nine starts, including five outings of 16 points or less.
Defense, not surprisingly, was Baltimore’s bread and butter, ranking third in both total yards allowed (300.5 ypg) and points allowed (16.3). The Ravens also boasted a plus-10 turnover margin, fourth-best in the NFL.
The Pats have failed to cover in their last four playoff starts and are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four January contests, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 21-7-1 following a SU loss, 9-4-1 after a non-cover and 5-2 at home (all as a chalk).
The under is on a bundle of runs for New England, including 5-1-1 overall, 6-2-1 in the playoffs, 11-2-1 in home playoff contests and 6-0-1 with the Pats a chalk. Baltimore, meanwhile, is on “over” rolls of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 4-0 in wild-card games, 4-1 in the playoffs and 6-1-1 against AFC opponents. That said, the over is 8-3-2 in the Ravens’ last 13 outings as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
Green Bay (11-4-1 ATS) at Arizona (10-6, 9-7 ATS)
In the third playoff contest of the weekend featuring opponents that also met last week, the surging Packers return to University of Phoenix Stadium to take on the defending NFC champion Cardinals.
Green Bay was 4-4 SU and ATS at the season’s midpoint, capped by a stunning 38-28 upset loss to previously winless Tampa Bay as a hefty 9½-point road favorite in its eighth game. However, the Packers bounced back big time, going a standout 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in the second half, with the only setback coming in a wild, last-play-of-the-game 37-36 shootout loss at Pittsburgh as a 2½-point pup. Last week, despite having little to play for, the Pack played their starters much of the way and rolled to a 33-7 road win over the Cards as a three-point pup.
Arizona was content with getting the No. 4 seed as the NFC West champion, pulling QB Kurt Warner early in last Sunday’s blowout loss to Green Bay. The Cardinals got out of the gate 1-2 SU and ATS this season, then went on a 6-1 SU tear as part of a 9-3 overall SU run (8-4 ATS) to easily claim the division championship despite losing twice to NFC West foe San Francisco.
The Packers missed the playoffs last year, following a run to the NFC title game two years ago in Brett Favre’s final season with the franchise. That January, Green Bay drubbed Seattle 42-20 as a nine-point chalk in the divisional round and was a 7½-point home favorite in the NFC final against the Giants, but the Packers were upended 23-20 in overtime, and New York went on to upset New England in the Super Bowl.
Last season, the Cardinals made the playoffs for the first time since 1998 and rode the bid all the way to their first Super Bowl. Arizona topped Atlanta at home, Carolina on the road, then returned home for the AFC title game and beat Philadelphia 32-25 as 3½-point underdog. The ride ended in a riveting Super Bowl, though the Cards lost 27-23 to Pittsburgh as a 6½-point ‘dog, capping a perfect 4-0 ATS postseason.
Green Bay is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in the last seven clashes with Arizona, including 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings. The Packers also played in Arizona in Week 3 of this preseason and jumped out to a 38-10 halftime lead with the starters on the field en route to a 44-37 win. The SU winner has cashed in five straight regular-season meetings in this rivalry and seven of the last eight.
The Packers piled up 379.1 ypg this season (sixth), including 261.2 ypg passing on the arm of QB Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 TDs against just seven INTs. In fact, hanging on to the ball – and forcing it out of opponents’ hands – was key all year for Green Bay, which led the NFL with a whopping plus-24 turnover margin, nine ahead of second-place Philadelphia. That helped Mike McCarthy’s troops average 28.8 ppg (third). About the only negative: Rodgers was sacked an eye-popping 50 times, tied with Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger for the most in the league. Still, most of those takedowns came early in the season, as Rodgers was sacked just five times in the last six games.
Green Bay also fielded the No. 2 total defense (284.4 ypg) and No. 1 rushing defense (83.3 ypg), while ranking seventh in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). CB Charles Woodson tied for the league lead with nine INTs, and although he left last week’s game in Arizona with a shoulder injury, he will play today.
The Cardinals were a middling 14th in total offense in the regular season, averaging 344.4 ypg, including just 93.4 ypg on the ground (28th). That put much of the offensive burden on the veteran Warner (3,753 passing yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs). WR Larry Fitzgerald, who was brilliant in the playoffs last year, was the chief target, with 1,092 yards and 13 TDs.
The turnover bug also plagued Arizona this year, as it finished with a minus-7 margin, 24th in the league, making it the only playoff team with a negative turnover margin. The Cardinals were middle-of-the-pack defensively, giving up 346.4 ypg (20th) and 20.3 ppg (tied for 14th).
Green Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last seven postseason tilts and is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five wild-card contests, but the Packers’ ATS streaks are all positive from there, including 33-16-2 overall, 5-0-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 5-0-1 against the NFC, 7-3 against winning teams and a sturdy 20-7-1 on the highway. In addition, the Packers were the best team in the NFL at the betting window this year.
The Cards are on a handful of positive spread-covering upswings, including 6-1 in January, 5-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 following a SU loss, 7-2 against winning teams and 5-1 coming off a double-digit home loss.
The over for Green Bay is on surges of 24-8 after a spread-cover, 22-9-1 within the NFC and 12-5 in roadies against teams with a winning home record, and the total has gone high in four of Arizona’s last five playoff starts. But the Cardinals are on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 5-1 versus the NFC and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, last week’s blowout fell just short of the 42-point total, giving the under a 3-2 mark in the last five meetings between these clubs going back to 2000.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(18) Temple (12-3, 10-5 ATS) at Rhode Island (12-1, 6-4 ATS)
The Owls will try to snap Rhode Island’s eight-game winning streak when they visit the Ryan Center in Kingston, R.I., for this Atlantic-10 Conference matchup.
Temple was riding a seven-game winning streak to close out 2009 then welcomed Kansas to Philadephia and lost to the top-ranked Jayhawks 84-52 as a seven-point ‘dog on Jan. 2. The Owls rebounded from that loss and won their conference opener on Wednesday, blowing out St. Joseph’s, 73-46, easily covering as 14 ½-point favorites. Defense is the Owls’ specialty as they allow just 55.7 points a game and 37.3 percent shooting.
Rhode Island hasn’t lost since a Dec. 2 trip to VCU when it fell 82-80 as a 2 ½-point pup. The Rams went to Akron on Tuesday and scored a 68-63 upset as one-point ‘dogs, but they have yet to play a conference game. They know how to light up the scoreboard, averaging 84 points a game at home and shooting it at a 48.6 percent clip.
These teams split their two matchups last season with the home team getting the win and cover in each. Rhode Island scored a 67-59 home win as a three-point chalk on Jan. 28 and 10 days later Temple returned the favor with a 68-62 home win as a five-point chalk. These rivals have alternated wins and covers in each of the last six meetings and the straight-up winner is a perfect 10-0 ATS dating back to the 2004 campaign.
Temple is on several ATS runs, including 45-22-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 19-6-1 in A-10 matchups, 8-1 on Sundays and 21-10 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Rhode Island is on ATS skids of 8-17-1 in conference play, 1-8 at home, 2-5 after a spread-cover and 0-5 at home against teams with winning road marks.
It’s been all “unders” lately for the Owls, including 33-16-2 overall, 6-2-1 on the road, 10-2 in conference action and 18-7-2 after a spread-cover. The Rams have stayed below the posted number in six of seven in Atlantic-10 play but topped the total in 35 of 51 home games and four of five after a spread-cover. However, the “over” has been the play in five of the last eight in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE
(1) Kansas (14-0, 6-5 ATS) at (14) Tennessee (11-2, 5-4-1 ATS)
The top-ranked Jayhawks put their season-long 14-game winning streak on the line when they visit the Thompson Boling Center in Knoxville, Tenn., to take on the Volunteers.
Kansas got tested on Wednesday when tiny Cornell went into Fog Allen Fieldhouse and battled the Jayhawks to the wire before finally falling 71-66, easily cashing as a 20 ½-point underdog to the top team in the land. Kansas turns up the heat on defense when it takes to the road, allowing just 56.5 points a game and limiting the home team to just 30.4 percent shooting.
Tennessee has won three straight (2-0 ATS) and seven of eight (3-3 ATS) overall, having blown out Charlotte on Wednesday, 88-71 as a 13 ½-point favorite. The Vols, who had all five starters reach double-digits in scoring on Wednesday, are scoring 90.7 points per game in front of the home faithful and shooting 51.7 percent from the floor.
These two teams squared off a year ago with Kansas edging the Vols 92-85 as a three-point home favorite. The Jayhawks held Tennessee to 26-of-66 shooting while they topped 50-percent shooting at 34-of-66.
Kansas is on a plethora of ATS runs, including 35-16-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 7-0 after a non-cover, and 8-2 on the road against a team with a winning home record. The Vols are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday games and 1-5 ATS in their last six against Big 12 opponents.
For the Jayhawks, the “under” is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-2 on Sundays, 4-1 in non-conference action and 20-6 after a straight-up win. Tennessee is also on several “under” runs, including 6-2 overall, 23-9 after a spread-cover, 4-0 on Sundays and 12-4 following a straight-up win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
Virginia Tech (12-1, 4-4 ATS) at (9) North Carolina (11-4, 5-8 ATS)
The Hokies bring a nine-game winning streak into their ACC opener against North Carolina at the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C.
Virginia Tech’s winning streak (4-1 ATS) becomes less impressive whey you see four of its last six have been against cupcakes in unlined contests. However, the Hokies beat Seton Hall on a neutral court on Jan. 2, winning 103-94 in OT as four-point underdogs. With their easy schedule, it’s no wonder the Hokies are averaging 79.6 points a game and shooting 50 percent from the floor in their last five contests.
North Carolina had a three-game winning streak (1-2 ATS) snapped on Monday with an 82-79 upset loss at Charlotte as 13 ½-point favorites. The Tar Heels have failed to cash in each of their last three, but the 13 ½-point line was the smallest of the three. They can light up the scoreboard in front of the home fans, averaging 89.6 points a game and shooting 52.8 percent on the home court.
The Tar Heels have won four straight (1-3 ATS) and seven of the last nine (3-6 ATS) against the Hokies, including a close 79-76 home win last season, coming up short as 11 ½-point favorites. Virginia Tech, an underdog in each meeting, has gotten the cash in five of the last six series clashes.
The Hokies are on ATS streaks of 15-7 after a spread-cover and 4-0 overall. North Carolina is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight Sunday games and 5-16 ATS in its last 21 ACC games, but the Tar Heels are on ATS runs of 34-16-1 after a straight-up loss and 20-7 at home against teams with winning road records.
For Virginia Tech, the “over” is on runs of 36-16-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 24-8-1 after a straight-up win and 3-0 after a spread-cover. North Carolina has stayed below the total in four of five Sunday tipoffs, but topped the total in 10 of 14 conference games and 35 of 52 after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Baltimore (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) at New England (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS)
The third-seeded Patriots return to the postseason after a one-year hiatus, playing host to the Ravens in a wild-card clash at Gillette Stadium.
New England was steady throughout the season, losing consecutive games only once – at Miami and at New Orleans – and putting together a late 3-0 SU surge (2-1 ATS) to clinch the AFC East title. In a meaningless regular-season finale at Houston last Sunday, the Pats led 27-13 early in the fourth quarter before allowing the Texans to rally, with New England ultimately falling 34-27 as a seven-point underdog.
The much bigger loss, though, was that of standout WR Wes Welker, who tore up his left knee and is out for the playoffs. Welker posted a league-best 123 receptions for 1,348 yards (second) despite essentially playing just 13 games.
Baltimore, which reached the AFC title game last year, was inconsistent much of this season. The Ravens got out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, then dropped three in a row (1-2 ATS) as part of a 3-6 SU and ATS nosedive that nearly knocked them out of playoff contention. Baltimore bounced back by winning three of its last four (2-1-1 ATS), including a 21-13 victory at Oakland laying 10 points Sunday in the regular-season finale – a must-win in order to punch its playoff ticket.
The Patriots are a superb 14-3 in the playoffs over the last decade, including three Super Bowl victories, and they fell just short of a fourth in their last postseason contest – the 17-14 loss to the Giants two years ago as an overwhelming 12-point favorite. New England missed the playoffs last year, despite going 11-5 SU and playing all but one quarter without Brady.
The Ravens rode the wild card to the AFC title game last year, beating Miami and Tennessee SU and ATS on the road before falling to eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 23-14 as a six-point road pup. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in its last eight playoff roadies and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight as a road pup of three or less, but it also shoulders negative ATS streaks of 2-7 in January, 0-4 against winning teams, 1-3-1 on the highway, 1-4-1 after a SU win and 0-3-1 against the AFC.
These teams just met in October, with New England hanging on for the 27-21 home win as a one-point chalk. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four clashes, and the home team is 4-0 ATS in that stretch.
The Patriots sport one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 397.3 ypg – trailing only New Orleans and Dallas, respectively – and 26.7 ppg (sixth). Not surprisingly, QB Tom Brady is the catalyst, as he returned after missing all of last season with a knee injury and threw for 4,398 yards (fifth) with 28 TDs and 13 INTs as he guided the NFL’s third-best passing attack (277.2 ypg). New England also rates among the top scoring defenses, allowing just 17.8 ppg (fifth) on 320.2 ypg (11th).
The Ravens averaged 351.2 ypg (13th), including the fifth-best running attack at 137.5 ypg, led by RB Ray Rice’s 1,339 rushing yards (5.3 ypc, 7 TDs). Baltimore put up 24.4 ppg on the year (ninth), but did so in rather inconsistent fashion. The Ravens scored 30 points or more seven times and 21 points or less in their other nine starts, including five outings of 16 points or less.
Defense, not surprisingly, was Baltimore’s bread and butter, ranking third in both total yards allowed (300.5 ypg) and points allowed (16.3). The Ravens also boasted a plus-10 turnover margin, fourth-best in the NFL.
The Pats have failed to cover in their last four playoff starts and are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four January contests, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 21-7-1 following a SU loss, 9-4-1 after a non-cover and 5-2 at home (all as a chalk).
The under is on a bundle of runs for New England, including 5-1-1 overall, 6-2-1 in the playoffs, 11-2-1 in home playoff contests and 6-0-1 with the Pats a chalk. Baltimore, meanwhile, is on “over” rolls of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 4-0 in wild-card games, 4-1 in the playoffs and 6-1-1 against AFC opponents. That said, the over is 8-3-2 in the Ravens’ last 13 outings as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
Green Bay (11-4-1 ATS) at Arizona (10-6, 9-7 ATS)
In the third playoff contest of the weekend featuring opponents that also met last week, the surging Packers return to University of Phoenix Stadium to take on the defending NFC champion Cardinals.
Green Bay was 4-4 SU and ATS at the season’s midpoint, capped by a stunning 38-28 upset loss to previously winless Tampa Bay as a hefty 9½-point road favorite in its eighth game. However, the Packers bounced back big time, going a standout 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in the second half, with the only setback coming in a wild, last-play-of-the-game 37-36 shootout loss at Pittsburgh as a 2½-point pup. Last week, despite having little to play for, the Pack played their starters much of the way and rolled to a 33-7 road win over the Cards as a three-point pup.
Arizona was content with getting the No. 4 seed as the NFC West champion, pulling QB Kurt Warner early in last Sunday’s blowout loss to Green Bay. The Cardinals got out of the gate 1-2 SU and ATS this season, then went on a 6-1 SU tear as part of a 9-3 overall SU run (8-4 ATS) to easily claim the division championship despite losing twice to NFC West foe San Francisco.
The Packers missed the playoffs last year, following a run to the NFC title game two years ago in Brett Favre’s final season with the franchise. That January, Green Bay drubbed Seattle 42-20 as a nine-point chalk in the divisional round and was a 7½-point home favorite in the NFC final against the Giants, but the Packers were upended 23-20 in overtime, and New York went on to upset New England in the Super Bowl.
Last season, the Cardinals made the playoffs for the first time since 1998 and rode the bid all the way to their first Super Bowl. Arizona topped Atlanta at home, Carolina on the road, then returned home for the AFC title game and beat Philadelphia 32-25 as 3½-point underdog. The ride ended in a riveting Super Bowl, though the Cards lost 27-23 to Pittsburgh as a 6½-point ‘dog, capping a perfect 4-0 ATS postseason.
Green Bay is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in the last seven clashes with Arizona, including 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings. The Packers also played in Arizona in Week 3 of this preseason and jumped out to a 38-10 halftime lead with the starters on the field en route to a 44-37 win. The SU winner has cashed in five straight regular-season meetings in this rivalry and seven of the last eight.
The Packers piled up 379.1 ypg this season (sixth), including 261.2 ypg passing on the arm of QB Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 TDs against just seven INTs. In fact, hanging on to the ball – and forcing it out of opponents’ hands – was key all year for Green Bay, which led the NFL with a whopping plus-24 turnover margin, nine ahead of second-place Philadelphia. That helped Mike McCarthy’s troops average 28.8 ppg (third). About the only negative: Rodgers was sacked an eye-popping 50 times, tied with Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger for the most in the league. Still, most of those takedowns came early in the season, as Rodgers was sacked just five times in the last six games.
Green Bay also fielded the No. 2 total defense (284.4 ypg) and No. 1 rushing defense (83.3 ypg), while ranking seventh in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). CB Charles Woodson tied for the league lead with nine INTs, and although he left last week’s game in Arizona with a shoulder injury, he will play today.
The Cardinals were a middling 14th in total offense in the regular season, averaging 344.4 ypg, including just 93.4 ypg on the ground (28th). That put much of the offensive burden on the veteran Warner (3,753 passing yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs). WR Larry Fitzgerald, who was brilliant in the playoffs last year, was the chief target, with 1,092 yards and 13 TDs.
The turnover bug also plagued Arizona this year, as it finished with a minus-7 margin, 24th in the league, making it the only playoff team with a negative turnover margin. The Cardinals were middle-of-the-pack defensively, giving up 346.4 ypg (20th) and 20.3 ppg (tied for 14th).
Green Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last seven postseason tilts and is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five wild-card contests, but the Packers’ ATS streaks are all positive from there, including 33-16-2 overall, 5-0-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 5-0-1 against the NFC, 7-3 against winning teams and a sturdy 20-7-1 on the highway. In addition, the Packers were the best team in the NFL at the betting window this year.
The Cards are on a handful of positive spread-covering upswings, including 6-1 in January, 5-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 following a SU loss, 7-2 against winning teams and 5-1 coming off a double-digit home loss.
The over for Green Bay is on surges of 24-8 after a spread-cover, 22-9-1 within the NFC and 12-5 in roadies against teams with a winning home record, and the total has gone high in four of Arizona’s last five playoff starts. But the Cardinals are on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 5-1 versus the NFC and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, last week’s blowout fell just short of the 42-point total, giving the under a 3-2 mark in the last five meetings between these clubs going back to 2000.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(18) Temple (12-3, 10-5 ATS) at Rhode Island (12-1, 6-4 ATS)
The Owls will try to snap Rhode Island’s eight-game winning streak when they visit the Ryan Center in Kingston, R.I., for this Atlantic-10 Conference matchup.
Temple was riding a seven-game winning streak to close out 2009 then welcomed Kansas to Philadephia and lost to the top-ranked Jayhawks 84-52 as a seven-point ‘dog on Jan. 2. The Owls rebounded from that loss and won their conference opener on Wednesday, blowing out St. Joseph’s, 73-46, easily covering as 14 ½-point favorites. Defense is the Owls’ specialty as they allow just 55.7 points a game and 37.3 percent shooting.
Rhode Island hasn’t lost since a Dec. 2 trip to VCU when it fell 82-80 as a 2 ½-point pup. The Rams went to Akron on Tuesday and scored a 68-63 upset as one-point ‘dogs, but they have yet to play a conference game. They know how to light up the scoreboard, averaging 84 points a game at home and shooting it at a 48.6 percent clip.
These teams split their two matchups last season with the home team getting the win and cover in each. Rhode Island scored a 67-59 home win as a three-point chalk on Jan. 28 and 10 days later Temple returned the favor with a 68-62 home win as a five-point chalk. These rivals have alternated wins and covers in each of the last six meetings and the straight-up winner is a perfect 10-0 ATS dating back to the 2004 campaign.
Temple is on several ATS runs, including 45-22-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 19-6-1 in A-10 matchups, 8-1 on Sundays and 21-10 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Rhode Island is on ATS skids of 8-17-1 in conference play, 1-8 at home, 2-5 after a spread-cover and 0-5 at home against teams with winning road marks.
It’s been all “unders” lately for the Owls, including 33-16-2 overall, 6-2-1 on the road, 10-2 in conference action and 18-7-2 after a spread-cover. The Rams have stayed below the posted number in six of seven in Atlantic-10 play but topped the total in 35 of 51 home games and four of five after a spread-cover. However, the “over” has been the play in five of the last eight in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE
(1) Kansas (14-0, 6-5 ATS) at (14) Tennessee (11-2, 5-4-1 ATS)
The top-ranked Jayhawks put their season-long 14-game winning streak on the line when they visit the Thompson Boling Center in Knoxville, Tenn., to take on the Volunteers.
Kansas got tested on Wednesday when tiny Cornell went into Fog Allen Fieldhouse and battled the Jayhawks to the wire before finally falling 71-66, easily cashing as a 20 ½-point underdog to the top team in the land. Kansas turns up the heat on defense when it takes to the road, allowing just 56.5 points a game and limiting the home team to just 30.4 percent shooting.
Tennessee has won three straight (2-0 ATS) and seven of eight (3-3 ATS) overall, having blown out Charlotte on Wednesday, 88-71 as a 13 ½-point favorite. The Vols, who had all five starters reach double-digits in scoring on Wednesday, are scoring 90.7 points per game in front of the home faithful and shooting 51.7 percent from the floor.
These two teams squared off a year ago with Kansas edging the Vols 92-85 as a three-point home favorite. The Jayhawks held Tennessee to 26-of-66 shooting while they topped 50-percent shooting at 34-of-66.
Kansas is on a plethora of ATS runs, including 35-16-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 7-0 after a non-cover, and 8-2 on the road against a team with a winning home record. The Vols are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday games and 1-5 ATS in their last six against Big 12 opponents.
For the Jayhawks, the “under” is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-2 on Sundays, 4-1 in non-conference action and 20-6 after a straight-up win. Tennessee is also on several “under” runs, including 6-2 overall, 23-9 after a spread-cover, 4-0 on Sundays and 12-4 following a straight-up win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
Virginia Tech (12-1, 4-4 ATS) at (9) North Carolina (11-4, 5-8 ATS)
The Hokies bring a nine-game winning streak into their ACC opener against North Carolina at the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C.
Virginia Tech’s winning streak (4-1 ATS) becomes less impressive whey you see four of its last six have been against cupcakes in unlined contests. However, the Hokies beat Seton Hall on a neutral court on Jan. 2, winning 103-94 in OT as four-point underdogs. With their easy schedule, it’s no wonder the Hokies are averaging 79.6 points a game and shooting 50 percent from the floor in their last five contests.
North Carolina had a three-game winning streak (1-2 ATS) snapped on Monday with an 82-79 upset loss at Charlotte as 13 ½-point favorites. The Tar Heels have failed to cash in each of their last three, but the 13 ½-point line was the smallest of the three. They can light up the scoreboard in front of the home fans, averaging 89.6 points a game and shooting 52.8 percent on the home court.
The Tar Heels have won four straight (1-3 ATS) and seven of the last nine (3-6 ATS) against the Hokies, including a close 79-76 home win last season, coming up short as 11 ½-point favorites. Virginia Tech, an underdog in each meeting, has gotten the cash in five of the last six series clashes.
The Hokies are on ATS streaks of 15-7 after a spread-cover and 4-0 overall. North Carolina is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight Sunday games and 5-16 ATS in its last 21 ACC games, but the Tar Heels are on ATS runs of 34-16-1 after a straight-up loss and 20-7 at home against teams with winning road records.
For Virginia Tech, the “over” is on runs of 36-16-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 24-8-1 after a straight-up win and 3-0 after a spread-cover. North Carolina has stayed below the total in four of five Sunday tipoffs, but topped the total in 10 of 14 conference games and 35 of 52 after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
BRANDON LANG
NOTE:
Just have to keep winning here in the new year.
And to keep winning with rock solid calls like the Jets yesterday, and the Jets on the money-line.
Up over 400 dimes of net profit after just 9 days here in 2010, but trust me when I tell you I want more today. I want another 3-0 sweep and I want over 500 dimes of net profit after the first 10 days here to start the year.
I am approaching this year with a different mindset than any other year, and after the first 9 days you can see just how much this new approach is paying off.
However, no time to rest. No time to celebrate. No time to enjoy any of this because there is more work to do today.
Tale of the tape will show 17-6 this year good for over 400 dimes of net profit but 20-6 for over 500 dimes of net profit sounds a whole lot better.
Let's get it on.
70 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. Never get beat by the hook.) - Until somebody shows me they can roll into Foxboro and beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in a playoff game, I will lay the number and roll with this combo everyday of the week.
Joe Flacco has had a nice year, but on the road in the playoffs I just don't trust him in his 2nd year.
I know he was somewhat successful last year in reaching the AFC championship game versus the Steelers and played well, but fact of the matter is he is no Tom Brady.
I also feel we are getting solid line value with the Patriots with Welker being out and just how big a deal everyone is making out of it and how Tom Brady can't survive without him.
Well my friends, I disagree.
Edleman filled in fantastic last week and he is a mini-me of Welker, and at home in a playoff atmosphere, this Patriots bunch will be hard to beat.
I don't think Joe Flacco knows just how hard a place this is to win in, and you don't know it until you have at least experienced it a time or two.
Somebody should have given Flacco Peyton Manning's number because he can tell him how hard it is to win there seeing as Peyton couldn't do it either.
New England was a perfect 8-0 at home winning every single home game by double digits with exception to week one beating the Bills by 1 and week 3 beating these Ravens by 6.
This game may be close for awhile but against this poor secondary of the Ravens they will do what they have done all year long and that is give up the big play to a good QB and I think we can agree Brady is just that.
This game will come down to which QB is able to make the big play and for my dollar it's Brady at home to remain perfect in the playoffs. Simple as that.
25 DIME - GREEN BAY PACKERS - (if 1 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 1. If 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2. Buy the 1/2 down. Never get beat by the hook.)
25 DIME - GREEN BAY-ARIZONA OVER - Nothing leads me to believe this meeting will be any different than the last meeting.
You saw the Jets handle the Bengals for the 2nd week in a row. You saw the Cowboys handle the Eagles for the 2nd week in a row.
The Green Bay Packers will complete the hat-trick for rematch games with the win today.
If you give Aaron Rogers time to throw, he is going to make you pay. It really is as simple as that.
Now I said yesterday the Bengals just don't match up with the Jets, and then they went out and proved me right. Well my feeling today is exactly the same with the Packers and the Cardinals.
For whatever reason, whether it's the receiver corps or Rogers or Grant, the Packers have their way offensively with this Cardinals defense and because of that, they are without question the right side to this game.
Now does the line move scare me a bit? Absolutely. The world has moved this line from the Cardinals -2 1/2 to the Packers -1 1/2 as of this writing Saturday night.
Now you can look at this line move 2 ways. The first is everyone is betting the Packers and the linemaker can do nothing but move the line or two, maybe Green Bay should have been a 2 point favorite all along.
Either way, I just don't like the way the Cardinals have looked down the stretch and especially Kurt Warner. Since his concussion he hasn't seemed himself and bottom line is I don't trust him in this spot today.
As I said at the top, Jets delivered for a 2nd straight week, the Cowboys delivered for the 2nd straight week and I see no reason why the Packers, winners of 7 of their last 8 SU and 7-0-1 ATS to flat out pay out like a slot machine once again.
You add the fact the Packers have gone over 13 of their last 16 as a road favorite of 0-to-3 points, and the Cardinals have gone over 11 of their last 13 as an underdog of 0-to-3 points and I love the over as well.
I truly feel this is going to be a track meet from the opening kickoff and when the smoke clears the Packers win this won 34-27.
FREE SELECTION - BALTIMORE-NEW ENGLAND UNDER
NOTE:
Just have to keep winning here in the new year.
And to keep winning with rock solid calls like the Jets yesterday, and the Jets on the money-line.
Up over 400 dimes of net profit after just 9 days here in 2010, but trust me when I tell you I want more today. I want another 3-0 sweep and I want over 500 dimes of net profit after the first 10 days here to start the year.
I am approaching this year with a different mindset than any other year, and after the first 9 days you can see just how much this new approach is paying off.
However, no time to rest. No time to celebrate. No time to enjoy any of this because there is more work to do today.
Tale of the tape will show 17-6 this year good for over 400 dimes of net profit but 20-6 for over 500 dimes of net profit sounds a whole lot better.
Let's get it on.
70 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. Never get beat by the hook.) - Until somebody shows me they can roll into Foxboro and beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in a playoff game, I will lay the number and roll with this combo everyday of the week.
Joe Flacco has had a nice year, but on the road in the playoffs I just don't trust him in his 2nd year.
I know he was somewhat successful last year in reaching the AFC championship game versus the Steelers and played well, but fact of the matter is he is no Tom Brady.
I also feel we are getting solid line value with the Patriots with Welker being out and just how big a deal everyone is making out of it and how Tom Brady can't survive without him.
Well my friends, I disagree.
Edleman filled in fantastic last week and he is a mini-me of Welker, and at home in a playoff atmosphere, this Patriots bunch will be hard to beat.
I don't think Joe Flacco knows just how hard a place this is to win in, and you don't know it until you have at least experienced it a time or two.
Somebody should have given Flacco Peyton Manning's number because he can tell him how hard it is to win there seeing as Peyton couldn't do it either.
New England was a perfect 8-0 at home winning every single home game by double digits with exception to week one beating the Bills by 1 and week 3 beating these Ravens by 6.
This game may be close for awhile but against this poor secondary of the Ravens they will do what they have done all year long and that is give up the big play to a good QB and I think we can agree Brady is just that.
This game will come down to which QB is able to make the big play and for my dollar it's Brady at home to remain perfect in the playoffs. Simple as that.
25 DIME - GREEN BAY PACKERS - (if 1 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 1. If 2 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 2. Buy the 1/2 down. Never get beat by the hook.)
25 DIME - GREEN BAY-ARIZONA OVER - Nothing leads me to believe this meeting will be any different than the last meeting.
You saw the Jets handle the Bengals for the 2nd week in a row. You saw the Cowboys handle the Eagles for the 2nd week in a row.
The Green Bay Packers will complete the hat-trick for rematch games with the win today.
If you give Aaron Rogers time to throw, he is going to make you pay. It really is as simple as that.
Now I said yesterday the Bengals just don't match up with the Jets, and then they went out and proved me right. Well my feeling today is exactly the same with the Packers and the Cardinals.
For whatever reason, whether it's the receiver corps or Rogers or Grant, the Packers have their way offensively with this Cardinals defense and because of that, they are without question the right side to this game.
Now does the line move scare me a bit? Absolutely. The world has moved this line from the Cardinals -2 1/2 to the Packers -1 1/2 as of this writing Saturday night.
Now you can look at this line move 2 ways. The first is everyone is betting the Packers and the linemaker can do nothing but move the line or two, maybe Green Bay should have been a 2 point favorite all along.
Either way, I just don't like the way the Cardinals have looked down the stretch and especially Kurt Warner. Since his concussion he hasn't seemed himself and bottom line is I don't trust him in this spot today.
As I said at the top, Jets delivered for a 2nd straight week, the Cowboys delivered for the 2nd straight week and I see no reason why the Packers, winners of 7 of their last 8 SU and 7-0-1 ATS to flat out pay out like a slot machine once again.
You add the fact the Packers have gone over 13 of their last 16 as a road favorite of 0-to-3 points, and the Cardinals have gone over 11 of their last 13 as an underdog of 0-to-3 points and I love the over as well.
I truly feel this is going to be a track meet from the opening kickoff and when the smoke clears the Packers win this won 34-27.
FREE SELECTION - BALTIMORE-NEW ENGLAND UNDER
Axiumsports.com
January 10th 2009
*-Weekly System Picks. Please follow the system and do not increase your starting bet until you at least triple your account. -*
Current Bankroll=$2,557.95
Pick #15-NFL-1st Half-Baltimore/New England UNDER 21.5 -109
Pick #16-NFL-Green Bay/Arizona OVER 47.5 -103
Pick #17-NBA-Cleveland/San Antonio OVER 188 -110
January 10th 2009
*-Weekly System Picks. Please follow the system and do not increase your starting bet until you at least triple your account. -*
Current Bankroll=$2,557.95
Pick #15-NFL-1st Half-Baltimore/New England UNDER 21.5 -109
Pick #16-NFL-Green Bay/Arizona OVER 47.5 -103
Pick #17-NBA-Cleveland/San Antonio OVER 188 -110
Sunday NCAAB Angle play GC
On Sunday the Bonus Play in college hoops is on Montana State. Game 852 at 4:00 eastern. These Bonus Plays have done well cashing again on Saturday with Weber State. Today Montana State looks to be a nice play here today as they have solid offensive and defensive edges on Eastern Washington. When Montana St. has been favored this year they have won and covered 5 of 6 times, including every single time vs losing teams. They are an excellent home team at 6-1 with an average 76-60 win score. E. Washington is just the opposite. They are 1-9 on the road and lose by an average 18 points per game. When the total is 140 to 150 E.Washington is just 1-11 and 3-9 ats. Look for a solid home win for Montana State. On the Sunday card I have a Huge five star 14-0 NFL playoff system play. This big one will end your week with the Cash. In addition I have the 17-1 NCAAB Dominator play and an NFL totals system that has cashed 11 of 13 times over the past 30+ years. On Saturday we nailed both NFL totals. Jump on and make some week ending cash. Take Montana State as the Bonus Play today. BOL GC
On Sunday the Bonus Play in college hoops is on Montana State. Game 852 at 4:00 eastern. These Bonus Plays have done well cashing again on Saturday with Weber State. Today Montana State looks to be a nice play here today as they have solid offensive and defensive edges on Eastern Washington. When Montana St. has been favored this year they have won and covered 5 of 6 times, including every single time vs losing teams. They are an excellent home team at 6-1 with an average 76-60 win score. E. Washington is just the opposite. They are 1-9 on the road and lose by an average 18 points per game. When the total is 140 to 150 E.Washington is just 1-11 and 3-9 ats. Look for a solid home win for Montana State. On the Sunday card I have a Huge five star 14-0 NFL playoff system play. This big one will end your week with the Cash. In addition I have the 17-1 NCAAB Dominator play and an NFL totals system that has cashed 11 of 13 times over the past 30+ years. On Saturday we nailed both NFL totals. Jump on and make some week ending cash. Take Montana State as the Bonus Play today. BOL GC
BLACK WIDOW-BILL YOUNG
6* W ido w W iseg uy Packers/Cards Wild Card G AM E OF THE Y EA R on Green Bay +3(-135 at bodog)
The Packers represent our top selection in the Wild Card round as they travel to the Cardinals Sunday. Once again, we are not basing this selection on their 33-7 victory over the Cardinals in Arizona in their season finale, but more on how they have played the second half of the season. The Packers are 7-1 S.U. & 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games, with their only loss coming on a last-second miracle by the Pittsburgh Steelers, 36-37. Green Bay is hitting on all cylinders right now, and they are the most dangerous Wild Card team in the playoffs. Defensively, they own the #2 ranked defense in the league at 284 yards/game, and they have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less. Offensively, they are putting up 28.8 points/game including 30.2 points/game on the road. We all know they have one of the best passing games in the league behind Aaron Rodgers and a plethora of talented receivers, but the key to their success lately is that they've found a running game. Ryan Grant is carrying the load, but Brandon Jackson and Ahman Green are help keeping him fresh by contributing when they get the chance. Arizona is facing some serious injury problems heading into this one. WR Anquan Boldin is questionable after spraining his MCL and dealing with a bum ankle, while CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is questionable with a knee injury as well. DE Calais Cambell is also questionable with an injured thumb. All of these guys will be slowed even if they do go. Arizona has become one-dimensional offensively, and the Packers will feast on the Cardinals because of it. The Cardinals average just 93.1 rushing yards/game, so Green Bay can pin their ears back and get after the immobile Kurt Warner all game long. Green Bay has held 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 200 yards passing, and for the season they allow just 201 passing yards/game. Green Bay has the more balanced offense and a better defense, and they are the clear choice in this match-up Sunday. The Packers are 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Take Green Bay and the points. (This is still a 6* play at +1 or on the Money Line, whatever you want because they will win outright)
5* W iseg uy Ravens/Pats AFC W ild Card S uref ire on New England -3(-105 at bodog)
This line started at Patriots -4 and it's already down to -3. The betting public is all over the Ravens due to the injury to Wes Welker, and though he is a big part of their offense, we still feel strongly about New England finding a way to win at home. The fact is that since Bill Belichick took over the Patriots, he has never lost an opening round game in the playoffs. This team still has a stout defense that can carry the load, and they still have plenty of playmakers on offense to score enough points to win. Look at it this way, would you rather have Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton or Randy Moss and Julian Edelman as your receivers? We'll take the latter every time because Moss is a game-changer, and Edelman has had an entire season to grasp the offense, and is basically the same player as Welker. New England is 8-0 at home this season, while the Ravens are 3-5 on the road. This is a very tough place to play, and it has shown once again this season. The Patriots are scoring 31.2 points/game at home while allowing just 12.9 points/game, outscoring their opponents by 18.3 points/game. Welker will certainly be missed, but his injury is getting blown way out of proportion. Also note that New England will be getting back D-Linemen Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren for this game, two of the best players on their defense. The Patriots are 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season since 1992. The clear value here is with New England. Take the Patriots and lay the points.
6* W ido w W iseg uy Packers/Cards Wild Card G AM E OF THE Y EA R on Green Bay +3(-135 at bodog)
The Packers represent our top selection in the Wild Card round as they travel to the Cardinals Sunday. Once again, we are not basing this selection on their 33-7 victory over the Cardinals in Arizona in their season finale, but more on how they have played the second half of the season. The Packers are 7-1 S.U. & 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games, with their only loss coming on a last-second miracle by the Pittsburgh Steelers, 36-37. Green Bay is hitting on all cylinders right now, and they are the most dangerous Wild Card team in the playoffs. Defensively, they own the #2 ranked defense in the league at 284 yards/game, and they have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less. Offensively, they are putting up 28.8 points/game including 30.2 points/game on the road. We all know they have one of the best passing games in the league behind Aaron Rodgers and a plethora of talented receivers, but the key to their success lately is that they've found a running game. Ryan Grant is carrying the load, but Brandon Jackson and Ahman Green are help keeping him fresh by contributing when they get the chance. Arizona is facing some serious injury problems heading into this one. WR Anquan Boldin is questionable after spraining his MCL and dealing with a bum ankle, while CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is questionable with a knee injury as well. DE Calais Cambell is also questionable with an injured thumb. All of these guys will be slowed even if they do go. Arizona has become one-dimensional offensively, and the Packers will feast on the Cardinals because of it. The Cardinals average just 93.1 rushing yards/game, so Green Bay can pin their ears back and get after the immobile Kurt Warner all game long. Green Bay has held 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 200 yards passing, and for the season they allow just 201 passing yards/game. Green Bay has the more balanced offense and a better defense, and they are the clear choice in this match-up Sunday. The Packers are 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Take Green Bay and the points. (This is still a 6* play at +1 or on the Money Line, whatever you want because they will win outright)
5* W iseg uy Ravens/Pats AFC W ild Card S uref ire on New England -3(-105 at bodog)
This line started at Patriots -4 and it's already down to -3. The betting public is all over the Ravens due to the injury to Wes Welker, and though he is a big part of their offense, we still feel strongly about New England finding a way to win at home. The fact is that since Bill Belichick took over the Patriots, he has never lost an opening round game in the playoffs. This team still has a stout defense that can carry the load, and they still have plenty of playmakers on offense to score enough points to win. Look at it this way, would you rather have Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton or Randy Moss and Julian Edelman as your receivers? We'll take the latter every time because Moss is a game-changer, and Edelman has had an entire season to grasp the offense, and is basically the same player as Welker. New England is 8-0 at home this season, while the Ravens are 3-5 on the road. This is a very tough place to play, and it has shown once again this season. The Patriots are scoring 31.2 points/game at home while allowing just 12.9 points/game, outscoring their opponents by 18.3 points/game. Welker will certainly be missed, but his injury is getting blown way out of proportion. Also note that New England will be getting back D-Linemen Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren for this game, two of the best players on their defense. The Patriots are 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season since 1992. The clear value here is with New England. Take the Patriots and lay the points.
