Ace-Ace (Exbookie) Playoff Thread Round 1
$2500.00 Take #107 Green Bay (+1.5) over Arizona (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 10)
This play is part of my 99 System and it is my NFL Game of the Month. We went with Green Bay last week and we’re going to go with them again this time around. Arizona made a nice run last year in the postseason but over the past three years this has been a pretty average team. They have been really poor at home this season and right now I don’t think that they have much of a home field advantage. Green Bay has one of the top defenses in the NFL and one of the best offenses as well. And right now they are a team that is headed to the playoffs with a lot of momentum and a lot of confidence. They beat the Cards badly last week and will do the same this week.
$2500.00 Take #107 Green Bay (+1.5) over Arizona (4:30 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 10)
This play is part of my 99 System and it is my NFL Game of the Month. We went with Green Bay last week and we’re going to go with them again this time around. Arizona made a nice run last year in the postseason but over the past three years this has been a pretty average team. They have been really poor at home this season and right now I don’t think that they have much of a home field advantage. Green Bay has one of the top defenses in the NFL and one of the best offenses as well. And right now they are a team that is headed to the playoffs with a lot of momentum and a lot of confidence. They beat the Cards badly last week and will do the same this week.
sports insights
NFL Marketwatch - Week 18 Playoff Edition
1/8/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry's largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average, SportsInsights.com's Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 18 Wild Card Weekend
Recapping Regular Season
The holiday season was joyous for the sportsbook industry in NFL Weeks 15 and 16, but the party ended in NFL Week 17. Last Sunday closed the final chapter on a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbook industry. All sportsbooks reported a slightly negative weekend with most losing between 0-1% of their handle. It was a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbooks. Let's just say we're all glad the playoffs are finally here.
Our Games to Watch stumbled in the final week, going 2-2, and for the season, that put us slightly above .500 but unfortunately in the red , 25-23-2, 52.1%. This is the first time in five seasons that NFL Marketwatch failed to produce positive results. We're proud of our overall five-year record of 137-105 (56.7%), but disappointed in a sub-par 2009 NFL Season. We look to return to our winning ways in 2010!
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-4. For the season, that puts the Public "in the red" with a record of 66-64 = 50.7%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the 2009 NFL regular season went the way of the "Square."
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
Year Record Win Percentage
NFL 2009-10 25-23 52.1%
NFL 2008-09 26-22 54.2%
NFL 2007-08 26-19 57.8%
NFL 2006-07 31-18 63.3%
NFL 2005-06 31-24 56.4%
TOTAL 139-106 56.7%
View Last Week's Column:
Special Thanks
I'd like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It's been an education in itself. I'd also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value.
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition (0-0 = 0.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
This game is the most lopsided-bet game of the week. Almost 80% of the bets are taking the Green Bay Packers (both spread bets and teasers/parlays). This is a perfect example of Public money causing irrational line movement. Public money is pushing this line from its opener of Arizona -2.5 to a +1.5. Arizona is the home team -- and that is a huge move in the point spread. Historical results show that there is value in getting a home underdog in the playoffs.
In addition to "betting against the Public" and taking Arizona, SportsInsights had a "Smart Money" play on Arizona triggered by Carib Sports 36-18, +13.7 units. Arizona isn't getting much respect, even though they lost last year's Super Bowl by just four points! Take the under-valued Arizona Cardinals to be a live dog at home.
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Bodog)
So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week's Games to Watch - Playoff Edition for the NFL.
Games to Watch - Playoff Edition (0-0 0%)
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Bodog)
NFL Marketwatch - Week 18 Playoff Edition
1/8/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
SportsInsights
Welcome to this week's edition of the NFL Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with NFL Marketwatch! The column appears on SportsInsights.com every Saturday afternoon. Signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch which is emailed out on Friday mornings at 11am est.
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry's largest online sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the "sharps" are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on SportsInsights.com to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend's games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then Try SportsInsights.com's Premium Pro Membership. You'll receive our Best Bets plays. They are emailed out on weekdays at 6:25pm et, and on weekends by 12pm et. On average, SportsInsights.com's Best Bets have been consistently profitable across every sport!
NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 18 Wild Card Weekend
Recapping Regular Season
The holiday season was joyous for the sportsbook industry in NFL Weeks 15 and 16, but the party ended in NFL Week 17. Last Sunday closed the final chapter on a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbook industry. All sportsbooks reported a slightly negative weekend with most losing between 0-1% of their handle. It was a tough NFL regular season for the sportsbooks. Let's just say we're all glad the playoffs are finally here.
Our Games to Watch stumbled in the final week, going 2-2, and for the season, that put us slightly above .500 but unfortunately in the red , 25-23-2, 52.1%. This is the first time in five seasons that NFL Marketwatch failed to produce positive results. We're proud of our overall five-year record of 137-105 (56.7%), but disappointed in a sub-par 2009 NFL Season. We look to return to our winning ways in 2010!
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 64% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-4. For the season, that puts the Public "in the red" with a record of 66-64 = 50.7%. To put this into perspective: over the previous 3 NFL seasons, in games where the Public was at least 64% on one team, the Public posted a record of 128-208 = 38.1%. Needless to say, the 2009 NFL regular season went the way of the "Square."
NFL Marketwatch Historical Performance
Year Record Win Percentage
NFL 2009-10 25-23 52.1%
NFL 2008-09 26-22 54.2%
NFL 2007-08 26-19 57.8%
NFL 2006-07 31-18 63.3%
NFL 2005-06 31-24 56.4%
TOTAL 139-106 56.7%
View Last Week's Column:
Special Thanks
I'd like to thank the line managers at our contributing sportsbooks for taking the time to speak with me every week, allowing unprecedented access to their line boards and minds. It's been an education in itself. I'd also like to thank the loyal readers of Sports Marketwatch. Your encouragement and support made this weekly column a joy to produce. I hope the Sports Marketwatch has shown readers the importance of line value.
NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch Playoff Edition (0-0 = 0.0%)
The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.
For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game's betting line. They'll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.
Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks on every NFL game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
This game is the most lopsided-bet game of the week. Almost 80% of the bets are taking the Green Bay Packers (both spread bets and teasers/parlays). This is a perfect example of Public money causing irrational line movement. Public money is pushing this line from its opener of Arizona -2.5 to a +1.5. Arizona is the home team -- and that is a huge move in the point spread. Historical results show that there is value in getting a home underdog in the playoffs.
In addition to "betting against the Public" and taking Arizona, SportsInsights had a "Smart Money" play on Arizona triggered by Carib Sports 36-18, +13.7 units. Arizona isn't getting much respect, even though they lost last year's Super Bowl by just four points! Take the under-valued Arizona Cardinals to be a live dog at home.
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Bodog)
So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week's Games to Watch - Playoff Edition for the NFL.
Games to Watch - Playoff Edition (0-0 0%)
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Bodog)
VEGAS VIC
Packers (+1) over CARDINALS
When Arizona found out before its Week 17 kickoff that its chance for a first-round bye was history, it played - or should we say, did not play - accordingly. Kurt Warner played only two series, before Matt Leinart mopped up. It'll be a different group of Cards on Sunday, but after looking at their body of work this season, we just don't get that warm fuzzy feeling about them that we had last year in the playoffs. And possibly going in without WR Anquan Boldin (sprained ankle), as well as injuries to cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and defensive end Calais Campbell, is bound to have an effect on 'Zona. We are getting a warm fuzzy feeling about this Green Bay team, which has the best defense in the NFC and comes rolling into this rematch on a gorgeous 8-0 spread run. It ain't gonna be a blowout like Sunday, but the Packers are best bet of the weekend as they roll into the second round.
Ravens (+3) over PATRIOTS
Here's what we know: Wes Welker, Tom Brady's lifeline, and the league leader with 123 receptions, is gone with a knee injury. He will be replaced by Julian Edelman, a rookie who played quarterback at Kent State. If Edelman beats me, I'll rip up my betting slip with a smile. Here's what we're not sure about: Brady could have anywhere from one to three broken ribs, a possible broken finger, and some kind of shoulder tweak. Still, he's Tom Brady, so we'll keep a wary eye out for any late injury news, and possible line move. Baltimore comes in with a pretty healthy squad, including the return of OT Jared Gaither, a vital cog in the running game. With the dynamic duo of Ray Rice (1,339 yards rushing and 78 receptions) and Willis McGahee, Joe Flacco should be able to keep the Ravens close enough to win on a late field goal or cover.
Packers (+1) over CARDINALS
When Arizona found out before its Week 17 kickoff that its chance for a first-round bye was history, it played - or should we say, did not play - accordingly. Kurt Warner played only two series, before Matt Leinart mopped up. It'll be a different group of Cards on Sunday, but after looking at their body of work this season, we just don't get that warm fuzzy feeling about them that we had last year in the playoffs. And possibly going in without WR Anquan Boldin (sprained ankle), as well as injuries to cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and defensive end Calais Campbell, is bound to have an effect on 'Zona. We are getting a warm fuzzy feeling about this Green Bay team, which has the best defense in the NFC and comes rolling into this rematch on a gorgeous 8-0 spread run. It ain't gonna be a blowout like Sunday, but the Packers are best bet of the weekend as they roll into the second round.
Ravens (+3) over PATRIOTS
Here's what we know: Wes Welker, Tom Brady's lifeline, and the league leader with 123 receptions, is gone with a knee injury. He will be replaced by Julian Edelman, a rookie who played quarterback at Kent State. If Edelman beats me, I'll rip up my betting slip with a smile. Here's what we're not sure about: Brady could have anywhere from one to three broken ribs, a possible broken finger, and some kind of shoulder tweak. Still, he's Tom Brady, so we'll keep a wary eye out for any late injury news, and possible line move. Baltimore comes in with a pretty healthy squad, including the return of OT Jared Gaither, a vital cog in the running game. With the dynamic duo of Ray Rice (1,339 yards rushing and 78 receptions) and Willis McGahee, Joe Flacco should be able to keep the Ravens close enough to win on a late field goal or cover.
Dave Blezow
PATRIOTS (-31⁄2) over Ravens
Over 43
This hasn’t been a banner year for the Patriots. The defense has slipped. Wes Welker got hurt last week against the Texans. Even Bill Belichick was raked over the coals for his fourth-down call in Indy. And Tom Brady is entering the playoffs with numerous injuries. Added up, it’s a lot, but still not enough to expect the Patriots to lose at home, where they are 8-0 this season and 8-0 in the playoffs in the Brady/Belichick era, to a Ravens team that needed late-season wins over the Lions, Bears and Raiders to get to 9-7.
Patriots 27-17
PATRIOTS (-31⁄2) over Ravens Best Bet
CARDINALS (-1) over Packers
Over 471⁄2
Kurt Warner is going to Canton on the wings of his great playoff performances, and even though Aaron Rodgers (30 TDs, 7 INTs) quickly has risen to the upper echelon, it’s hard to go against Warner at home in the tournament.
The Pack’s bugaboo in their losses this season has been sacks, and the Cards bring seven sacks off each edge up front in Calais Campbell (he’ll cast up his broken thumb) and Darnell Dockett. With the pressure and the ballhawks in the secondary, the Cards D can thwart Rodgers enough to make it winnable for Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin (betting he’ll play, too).
Cardinals 28-24
PATRIOTS (-31⁄2) over Ravens
Over 43
This hasn’t been a banner year for the Patriots. The defense has slipped. Wes Welker got hurt last week against the Texans. Even Bill Belichick was raked over the coals for his fourth-down call in Indy. And Tom Brady is entering the playoffs with numerous injuries. Added up, it’s a lot, but still not enough to expect the Patriots to lose at home, where they are 8-0 this season and 8-0 in the playoffs in the Brady/Belichick era, to a Ravens team that needed late-season wins over the Lions, Bears and Raiders to get to 9-7.
Patriots 27-17
PATRIOTS (-31⁄2) over Ravens Best Bet
CARDINALS (-1) over Packers
Over 471⁄2
Kurt Warner is going to Canton on the wings of his great playoff performances, and even though Aaron Rodgers (30 TDs, 7 INTs) quickly has risen to the upper echelon, it’s hard to go against Warner at home in the tournament.
The Pack’s bugaboo in their losses this season has been sacks, and the Cards bring seven sacks off each edge up front in Calais Campbell (he’ll cast up his broken thumb) and Darnell Dockett. With the pressure and the ballhawks in the secondary, the Cards D can thwart Rodgers enough to make it winnable for Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin (betting he’ll play, too).
Cardinals 28-24
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ENGLAND –3 over Baltimore
Much has been made of the Patriots losing its best receiver, Wes Walker, to injury last week against the Texans and all I can say to that is, “big deal”. They still have Randy Moss and a wide-open Sam Aiken, Ben Watson or Julian Edelman will be just as good as a wide open Wes Walker. You see, the Ravens virtually have no pass rush, not to mention “B” cornerbacks and giving Tom Brady time to throw against poor coverage is death and that’s precisely what’ll occur here. New England already beat the Ravens in Baltimore way back in week 4 and that was at a time when Brady was just starting to feel comfortable again. Now he’s very comfortable and he’ll feel even better knowing that the Ravens won’t get close to him. So, while I’m not sold on the Patriots being the powerhouse they were a couple of seasons ago, they’re still far superior to this invader. In fact, the Patriots should have its way, both on the ground and in the air and watching these Ravens play from behind will not be a pretty sight for Baltimore backers. Play: New England –3 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Green Bay to win the Super Bowl +17.00
I could play the Packers to beat the Cardinals, as I like them to do so but this wager has a lot more value and should the Packers lose here, I don’t want to risk two bets. What I do know is that the Packers are peaking at precisely the right time. Both its defense and offense is playing as well or better than anyone else and that’s very significant. In fact, the Packers have all the right ingredients to make a deep run. They have a great quarterback that cannot only hit his receiver’s square in the numbers but he can run too. The Pack won seven of its last eight games and that includes a 10-point win over Dallas in which they held the Boys to just seven points. In the last three weeks they put up 36, 48 and 33 points respectively and that’s a testament to just how well this offense is going right now. Again, the Packers underrated defense is also playing well and we’ve seen it over and over in this league and that’s a team on a roll heading into the playoffs can go a long, long way, just like the Cards did last season and just like the G-Men did when they won the Super Bowl as a wildcard team just two years ago. Should the Pack win this week they’ll become even more dangerous. Play: Green Bay +17-1 to win the Super Bowl (Risking 1 unit).
NEW ENGLAND –3 over Baltimore
Much has been made of the Patriots losing its best receiver, Wes Walker, to injury last week against the Texans and all I can say to that is, “big deal”. They still have Randy Moss and a wide-open Sam Aiken, Ben Watson or Julian Edelman will be just as good as a wide open Wes Walker. You see, the Ravens virtually have no pass rush, not to mention “B” cornerbacks and giving Tom Brady time to throw against poor coverage is death and that’s precisely what’ll occur here. New England already beat the Ravens in Baltimore way back in week 4 and that was at a time when Brady was just starting to feel comfortable again. Now he’s very comfortable and he’ll feel even better knowing that the Ravens won’t get close to him. So, while I’m not sold on the Patriots being the powerhouse they were a couple of seasons ago, they’re still far superior to this invader. In fact, the Patriots should have its way, both on the ground and in the air and watching these Ravens play from behind will not be a pretty sight for Baltimore backers. Play: New England –3 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Green Bay to win the Super Bowl +17.00
I could play the Packers to beat the Cardinals, as I like them to do so but this wager has a lot more value and should the Packers lose here, I don’t want to risk two bets. What I do know is that the Packers are peaking at precisely the right time. Both its defense and offense is playing as well or better than anyone else and that’s very significant. In fact, the Packers have all the right ingredients to make a deep run. They have a great quarterback that cannot only hit his receiver’s square in the numbers but he can run too. The Pack won seven of its last eight games and that includes a 10-point win over Dallas in which they held the Boys to just seven points. In the last three weeks they put up 36, 48 and 33 points respectively and that’s a testament to just how well this offense is going right now. Again, the Packers underrated defense is also playing well and we’ve seen it over and over in this league and that’s a team on a roll heading into the playoffs can go a long, long way, just like the Cards did last season and just like the G-Men did when they won the Super Bowl as a wildcard team just two years ago. Should the Pack win this week they’ll become even more dangerous. Play: Green Bay +17-1 to win the Super Bowl (Risking 1 unit).
