Sam Clayton
20 dime - BOS/CHW Under 8.5
If there's anything I've learned as a White Sox fan, it's that Ozzie Guillen loves him some reserves on Sundays and we'll likely see a good amount today for the South Siders. Parlay that with my theory that most afternoon matinees are slow paced, low scoring affairs and the fact that both starting pitchers have ace-like repertoires, this is the right play in this duel of the Sox.
Both Jon Lester (11-7, 3.58) and John Danks (12-8, 3.82) are big game pitchers and they've been absolutely cruising since August. Lester is 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA his last six starts while Danks has hunkered down too, compiling a 4-1 mark and 3.63 ERA the last seven times he's taken the hill. I'm really confident that these two "aces" will tame their opposing hitters and their deceptiveness will be in full effect. And sure it's not a popular pick to fade the Boston offense, but from what we saw back on August 29, when Danks threw six innings of two-run ball at Fenway, I like my chances.
It's no secret that Chicago is struggling to score runs as the under has cashed 5 of their last 6 games, and I really don't think they get to Lester for more than three runs. And if I know Ozzie (which I think I do) we'll likely see backup catcher Ramon Castro spell A.J. Pierzynski, meaning the Sox might be without their hottest hitter since the All-Star break. But don't sleep on Danks either because this kid has stepped up in huge spots all year long beating the Rays, Twins, Cubs (twice), Angels, Yankees and Red Sox. These pitchers are both capable of going the distance and they possess the swing-and-a-miss type stuff that hitters hate to face.
Play the UNDER.