Service Plays Sunday 09/06/09

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Overall MLB record: 26-20-1 & +23.45 units

We have 3 plays today.

1) Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies

Pick: Arizona +200 (2 units)

The Diamondbacks are highly undervalued at this price. Yusmeiro Petit (3-8, 5.47) will face Jorge De La Rosa (13-9, 4.60). Petit has been excellent lately with a 1.59 ERA in his last 3 starts. Additionally, the Diamondbacks haven't been swept by the Rockies in almost 5 years. Therefore the Dbacks are definitely worth a small wager.

Lay 2 units on Arizona.

2) Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Texas -103 (3 units)

The Rangers are trailing Boston by 2 games in the AL Wildcard Standings. This is a critical must win for Texas. Fortunately they have a few trends in their favor. Texas is 5-1 in its last 6 vs right handed pitchers and 26-10 in its last 36 contests versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.3. Baltimore is 28-57 in their last 85 during game 3 of a series and 32-69 in their last 101 versus a team with a winning record. The O's are 1-5 in Guthrie's last 6 versus a team with a winning record.

Lay 3 units on the Rangers.

3) St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: UNDER 9 -120 (3 units)
 

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JOE NELSON

Mississippi at Memphis

Pick: Mississippi -17

Ole Miss is getting an awful lot of attention this season after winning nine games last year and returning a very complete team. The defense did lose several key players and the unit may not be quite as strong as last season when just 19 points per game were allowed through a tough schedule but the Rebel offense should be excellent. Veteran QB Jean Snead has plenty of help returning and Houston Nutt has proven to be a very bright offensive coach. This is a serious rivalry game and one of the largest spreads in series history but it is warranted even with the Rebels on the road. Mississippi does not have a meaningful game for two weeks after this game so there will be no lack of focus or intensity. Memphis lost badly in its bowl game last season and it may be an omen for a bit of a fall after a fairly successful run that has cycled up and down. In eight years Coach Tommy West has led the Tigers to five bowl games but he has also had two seasons of three or fewer wins. Memphis had a very shaky QB situation last year due to injuries and a couple of key players are banged up already this year. Memphis should feature a respectable running game but it may be tough to showcase that ability in this match-up. The offensive line is very fresh and should be overpowered by the size and speed for the Rebels up front. Memphis has been a sneaky home underdog but this may be one of the few games that Ole Miss has value, even as a double-digit road favorite, as the public may not realize how good this team can be just yet.
 

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SEABASS
100*
CFL
Saskatchewan
200*
WHITE SOX
WASHINGTON
100*
METS UNDER
 
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Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
*Mississippi (-16.0) 40 MEMPHIS 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 06-Sep-09
I'll take Mississippi in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 1/2 to -20 points.
 
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John Ryan

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros

Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Ai Simulator 5* graded play on the Phillies as they play against Houston set to start at 2:05 EST. Lidge is truly a big problem for the Phillies as he blew his 10th save of the year and moved his record to an imperfect 0-7 on the season. Based on the AiS, he will not be needed today and Cole Hamels will dominate again. Hamels is coming off his 4 complete game shutout of his career allowing just 2 hits and 1 BB while recording 9 K's against SF. Over his last 3 starts he has posted a 1.64 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Houston starter Bud Norris is in a horrid stretch sporting a 13.11 ERA over his last 3 starts. Hamels has never lost to Houston and his team record is a perfect 5-0. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 40-7 making 22.3 units sin profits since 2003. Play on road teams revenging a one run loss to opponent and is a good team sporting a 54% to 62% winning percentage playing a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 46% to 49%. Take the Phillies.
 

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Dave Busk

3 Unit Pick Take Memphis (+17) over Mississippi

Whew, is this baby high. These two teams opened up last year in Mississippi with the oddsmaker opening the Rebels as a (10) point favorite before money betting down the closing number to (-8.5) Mississippi win. The Rebels when on to go 9-4 and win a bowl game while Memphis went 6-7 and lost a bowl game. A lot can be said about Memphis last year, they started the season 0-3 and battled back to make a bowl game. This Memphis team is a little older and better, their strong at the quarterback position and have a good returning back with Curtis Steele along with a defensive that improved last year and has seven returning starters this year. I know the Rebels are good and deep with the offense and even with no real home field advantage with these two schools so close, this line is just to high and I expect Memphis to hang around.
 

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Vegas Sports Informer

3 Unit Play. Take Colorado -10½ over Colorado St

Since this game is being played in Boulder and not Denver we should see the home team taking advantage of this instate rivalry. What a shock that Colorado State is starting yet another season with an inexperienced QB. Colorado St is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
 

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Randle the Handle

Seattle –1 +1.11 over OAKLAND PINNACLE
The A’s finally beat the Mariners last night but that doesn’t change the fact that they’ve still lost 11 of 15 games to the M’s and not only are they at a disadvantage on the mound, but they have a big psychological disadvantage as well. The M’s own them and with Doug Fister facing Gio Gonzalez they have a great chance to take three out of four games. Fister is a rather unknown at this point, as he started the season in the minors and got the call in early August. He has just five starts and he’s looking better with each passing one. Fister has pitched into the seventh inning in three of his last four and is coming off a 7.1, five-hit and one run gem against the tough Angels. He also one-hit the White Sox in six innings and went seven full against the Yanks and allowed eight hits and three runs. This kid is a keeper and personally, I’ve watched his last four starts and just love the way he pitches. He keeps the ball low, he throws strikes and he has outstanding movement and poise. The league is hitting just .213 off him and this is his easiest assignment to date. The A’s are fifth worst in the majors in team batting average and this is the first time they’ll see Fister. Gonzalez, meanwhile, has pitched 10 innings this season vs Seattle and has a BAA of .308 against them to go along with a 6.30 ERA. At home, in seven starts covering 34 frames, Gonzalez is 1-4 with an 8.21 ERA. Of the 46 hits he’s allowed in those 34 innings (.326 BAA), 10 have gone yard. The M’s are a –1.14 favorite, and you can play that if you like because it’s a definite underlay but I’ll lay the run with a take-back because the M’s should roll again. Play: Seattle –1 +1.11 (Risking 2 units).

NY Yankees –1½ +1.10 over TORONTO PINNACLE
First off, the Yanks are 14-5 against southpaws on the road and overall they’re 31-14 against left-handed starters and it’s not like they’re facing a tough one here. Brian Tallet is a career reliever that was in the rotation for a bunch of starts but was subsequently returned to the pen before being inserted again due to an injury. He has a very average home ERA of 4.82, and overall his ERA is 5.17. Secondly, the Blue Jays have been a dumpster-fire since about mid May and losing has been very contagious. The Jays, as a team are batting .215 over the last 10 days and that’s the worst mark in the AL and the second worst in the majors over that span. Let’s also not forget that they spent four days in Texas recently, scored 18 runs in one game, yet they’re still hitting .215 over that 10-game stretch. Sergio Metre is slowly but surely coming around. He has an outstanding groundball to fly ball ratio and that’s a great indication that he’s on the verge of something good. Of the last 57 batters Mitre has faced, 33 of them have grounded out and just 15 have popped out. He threw a six-inning, one-hit gem against the South Side in his last start and these Jays have made a habit of making pitchers look fantastic. Anyway, the Yanks offense should have a huge day against this still Tallet and the Jays offense will likely pull another no-show. Play: NY Yankees –1½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
 

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